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What Are The Most Popular Baby Names In The US? Olivia, Emma and Amelia have been announced as the three most popular baby names for girls in the U.S., while for boys, Liam, Noah and Oliver were parents' favorites. This is according to the U.S. Social Security Administration’s annual list of the most popular baby names in the United States. According to the institution, Statista's Anna Fleck reports that the list, released earlier this month, is based on applications for Social Security cards, which are submitted at the time of birth. Olivia and Liam have held the top spots for the past six consecutive years. The third position has shown slightly more variation since 2015, with the appearance of Amelia, Charlotte, Ava and Sophia for girls, as well as William and Mason for boys. You will find more infographics at Statista Other girls' names that featured in the top 10 last year were Charlotte, Mia, Sophia, Isabella, Evlyn and Ava. For boys, they were James, Genry, Mateo, Elijah, Lucas and William. In 2024, the names with the biggest changes in popularity were Truce for a boy, which rose from rank 12,109 in 2023 to 991 in 2024 and Ailany for a girl, which rose from rank 855 to 101. Truce is an Old English name meaning “peace”, while Ailany is believed to be derived from the Hawaiian name Ailani, which means “chief”. In total, 3.61 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2024, up from 3.59 million in 2023. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 23:00
The KGB Spy Who Predicted Our Future Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com, My dear friends, I think you are in very big trouble. Whether you believe it or not, YOU ARE AT WAR. And you may lose this war very soon together with all your affluence and freedoms unless you start defending yourselves. –Yuri Bezmenov, 1984 In 1970, a Soviet KGB agent named Yuri Bezmenov defected to the West. His story is fascinating. Yuri shared key details on how USSR propaganda and subversion worked. But first we need to discover why Yuri came over to the West… Since the 1960s, Yuri had been stationed in India. His cover assignment was as a journalist for the Novosti Press Agency. But his real job as a KGB agent was to influence policymakers, academics, and journalists. Yuri’s mission was to infect these targets with Marxist-Leninist ideology. He planted stories about how benevolent and fair the USSR was. He charmed diplomats and politicians with vodka (and less tasteful means). He planted stories to discredit the United States. He built relationships with influential Indians with a goal of shaping the narrative around the Soviet Union. He worked with students, recruiting future Indian leaders to study in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. His job was to corrupt both individuals and institutions. Eventually Yuri became disillusioned with his work. He realized that his efforts were actively harming the Indian people, whom he had become quite attached to. So he decided to defect to the West. He disguised himself as an American hippie, and joined one of the wandering groups of backpackers which frequented India at the time. Yuri slipped his Soviet handlers and made his way to the American embassy. They granted him asylum, and he was debriefed by the CIA and FBI. Lessons in Ideological Subversion Once in North America, Yuri Bezmenov changed his name to Tomas Schuman and worked as a producer for the Canadian Broadcasting Company (CGC). Ironically, part of his job was now to target Russian-speaking countries with Western views. Yuri wrote books and lectured all over North America, warning that if the United States didn’t guard its values closely, they would be overwhelmed by the same type of social warfare he used in India. Bezmenov described this process as “ideological subversion”. He claimed that 85% of the KGB counterintelligence budget was used to subvert countries. Less than 15% of KGB spending was on the cloak-and-dagger stuff we see in movies. The USSR ran the same playbook in countless countries, and Yuri warned Americans that we were now the primary target. He explained that ideological subversion generally has 4 stages. Demoralization (15-20 year process) – begin to undermine a society’s values, religion, and institutions. Destabilization (2-5 years) – encourage political polarization, unrest, inflation. Crisis (sudden but with lasting effects) – enacting change by taking advantage of a major destabilizing event such as war or economic crisis. Normalization (indefinite) – The now authoritarian and demoralized society becomes normal to citizens, and they barely notice its negative aspects. Yuri said that it takes 15-20 years to demoralize a nation because that’s how long it takes to propagandize one generation with socialist ideals. Bezmenov also said that once someone is subverted, it is extremely difficult to reverse the process. You can show them all the factual information you want, but it won’t change their views. They have become completely demoralized. I would argue that America’s crisis stage was 9/11. It was a war combined with an economic collapse. Interestingly, this date also coincides with America’s declining religiosity. In 2000, 68% of Americans reported belonging to a church, synagogue, temple, or mosque. Today it’s just 45%. Source: Gallup Americans of all religions have been losing faith. Yuri predicted this. Disrupting a country’s religious values is a key part of the subversion playbook. However, we’re beginning to see signs of a religious reawakening. Many of my kids’ friends have actually encouraged their parents to join a church, which is a positive sign. If you can’t guess, we are still in the midst of the normalization stage. However, Americans do finally appear to be waking up. The only thing that will wake fully demoralized people from their slumber is a “kick in the balls” as Yuri said. In other words, conditions have to get bad before the brainwashed population wakes up. We’re reaching that stage now and I suspect we’ll hit the tipping point over the next decade. Set in Motion Long Ago To be clear, modern Russia is not actively subverting America. This plan was set in motion many decades ago during the peak of the cold war with the USSR. Subversion is a “set it and forget it” type of operation. Once you influence one generation, the effect is self-perpetuating (up to a point). It’s a disturbingly brilliant form of warfare. Silent, effective, and cheap. Fortunately, there is a way out of demoralization. Yuri encouraged Americans to vote conservative, and basically said the only way out is through strong right-wing leaders. We have that in Donald Trump, and his return to the Presidency is a good sign for the country. The left tried everything to prevent the re-election of Donald J. Trump. Fake criminal charges, lawsuits, slander, and more. Yet Americans saw through the lies. This is encouraging. Additionally, young Americans are increasingly conservative. The old demoralized political left is withering away. Their appeal amongst young voters has plummeted, and the DNC is rudderless. Our country will get out of this demoralized phase in time. We’ve already made good progress over the past decade and this should continue. For those who wish to learn more, here are my favorite interviews, books, and lectures featuring Yuri Bezmenov: Socialist Subversion Explained (Youtube) Full Interview with G. Edward Griffin (Youtube) A Love Letter to America (PDF) 1983 Lecture on Subversion (Youtube) Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 22:35
Few Americans Enjoy Using AI Tools using artificial intelligence, such as ChatGPT, are only liked by 22 percent of Americans in their everyday lives. This places the country towards the bottom of the ranking when compared to other nations, reports Statista's Katharina Buchholz according to a survey by Statista Consumer Insights shows. You will find more infographics at Statista In India, almost every second respondent said they enjoyed using AI tools, while in China and Spain, the number is still just over one in three. ChatGPT and other AI tools are least popular in Japan, where only 10 percent of respondents said they were excited about using AI software in their everyday lives. The popularity of AI software is also low in Italy (20 percent). The chatbot was developed by the U.S. software company OpenAI. These findings align with data from Ipsos, which found that Asia as a region has higher levels of enthusiasm about a future with AI. Ipsos also asked respondents how much they knew about AI products and services, finding that this self-claimed knowledge was highest in Asia, with China (81 percent), Indonesia (80 percent) and Thailand (69 percent) topping the list. In terms of consumer products, artificial intelligence refers to the simulation and automation of intelligent behavior. AI in general is used in a wide variety of fields, such as the development of voice assistants, industrial robots and medicine. The field of autonomous driving also falls within this category. Forecasts predict that global revenues in the field of artificial intelligence will continue to grow in the coming years. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 22:10
Frugality Rules As Americans Start Making The Most In A Hand-Me-Down Market Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), PHOENIX—While many retailers have struggled, business has thrived since Estefania Gasca and her husband, Cristobal Zepeda, established Thrift It Forward consignment store in Phoenix nearly two years ago. Deborah Locker, an employee at Christian Family Care Thrift Store in Phoenix, Ariz., stands behind the sales counter on May 1, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times Some days, the second-hand goods sell as quickly as they come in. The couple has learned to appreciate the intrinsic value of old things, as second-hand resale and “do-it-yourself” repairs grow in popularity. Gasca views it as a gradual paradigm shift—a new way of living based on old-school thinking. “I feel like people are being more frugal. I feel that people are resorting more to buying second-hand rather than new,” said Gasca, standing behind the check-out counter on May 1. “I feel like we haven’t experienced a [major] change just yet.” COVID-19 revealed weaknesses in supply chains, resulting in empty store shelves and foreshadowing potentially worse situations due to global trade conflicts and import tariffs. If it’s broken, second-hand tools can fix it as fine as new, Gasca said. Used electronics, such as old gaming systems, computers, and digital devices, are among her best-selling products. They provide good quality at a significantly lower cost than large retail stores. However, Gasca told The Epoch Times she is worried about the current unstable economy, which could lead to problems with pricing and availability, even for resellers like Thrift It Forward. Deborah Locker, an employee at Christian Family Care Thrift Store in Phoenix, Ariz., goes over prices on May 1, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times “We buy all of our stuff. We don’t get any donations,” Gasca said. “I’m afraid people will start selling more expensively. It will affect our prices. The [profit] margins won’t be as good.” That means that thrift, budget, and consignment stores will have to start selling inventory at higher prices, undermining the purpose of buying second-hand items. “We want to push reasonable prices because we know the economy is not as good,” Gasca said. However, “we don’t want to raise our prices,” and there are indications that more challenging times may lie ahead. If there’s a silver lining, Gasca said, Americans are becoming less wasteful and more practical with their personal belongings. Hand-Me-Down World Gasca said the country should be more self-sustainable. “We are a big throw-away society.” “I feel a lot of people are coming in to buy [second-hand] as opposed to buying brand new, trying to keep their costs down,” she said. “Automotive mechanics come to see us. We focus heavily on tools because there are a lot of fix-it-yourself people. Things go [fast].” A sign shows assorted clothing marked at $5 at the Christian Family Care Thrift Store in Phoenix, Ariz., on May 1, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times According to research by Capital One Shopping, between 16 percent and 18 percent of Americans shop at thrift stores annually, visiting more than 25,000 resale, consignment, and nonprofit resale shops across the United States. Of these consumers, 93 percent primarily shop online, with bargain hunters spending an average of $1,760 a year on second-hand items. In 2023, the U.S. second-hand market generated $53 billion in revenue, projected to grow to $73 billion by 2028, according to Capital One’s research. During this period, the clothing resale sector has grown 15 times faster than the overall retail apparel industry and should continue expanding at an annual rate of 17 percent through 2028. The most commonly thrifted items include clothing (67 percent), books (60 percent), furniture (49 percent), shoes (36 percent), and toys (29 percent). ‘Planned Resilience’ At the Christian Family Care Thrift Store in Phoenix, volunteer cashier Deborah Locker has noticed an increasing interest in recycling old items, commonly known as “thrifting.” She sees it as a logical progression in a throw-away society, and people are often surprised by the quality of second-hand items. “We got a new Prada purse yesterday,” which usually retails for hundreds of dollars, and now is selling at a fraction of the cost, Locker told The Epoch Times. Estefania Gasca, co-owner of Thrift It Forward consignment store in Phoenix, Ariz., adjusts items on a shelf on May 1, 2025. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times With other items, they will say, “What a bargain! It would have cost me $60, but I got it for $20.” “I’ve seen more information on thrifting on the internet lately,” Locker said. “They’re in my news feeds.” As global trade encounters increasing disruptions, Locker envisions a domestic economy focused less on planned obsolescence and more on planned resilience. Locker said she tries to be a good steward of the world’s resources, not a “throw-away” person. Thrifting is one way of expressing that conviction. It often involves do-it-yourself repairs, and Marlina Kessler, co-owner of Bernina Connection in Phoenix, believes that knowing how to sew and mend clothes is an essential skill for the 21st century. The sewing shop offers classes specializing in Bernina sewing machines, regarded as the Mercedes-Benz of the industry, along with fabrics and quilting supplies. At the top of the sewing machine sales line is the B735 computerized patchwork edition, which sells for around $8,000. “It’s amazing. I tell people it’s like a CNC machine that sews instead of cuts [metal],” Kessler said. Kessler is primarily a garment “sewist” rather than a traditional quilter. When she purchased the shop, established in 2002, she leaned more toward fabric sales and garment repair. With rising prices and a renewed interest in extending the lifespan of clothing, Kessler believes that “fast fashion” is declining. Fast fashion refers to the rapid and inexpensive production of trendy clothing that saturates the market. This phenomenon goes hand in hand with a culture of disposability. Kessler said that this is where sewing and mending skills truly shine. “We do a lot of classes. I’ve got a 23-year-old son, and he is much more aware than I ever was at that age about our environment, things that are just disposable,” Kessler said. “I think the newer generation is placing much more value in sustainable things, creating clothing, and getting good products.” New Life From Old Clothes Purchasing second-hand items gives new life to old fabrics and reduces the cost of alterations, Kessler said. “These bundles here are made from vintage quilts,” she said, pointing to a set of fabrics. “And people will use that for what they call visible mending. They‘ll make their patches. Sometimes, they’ll stitch and elaborate, making them look cute.” Currently, students in the Bernina Connections sewing classes are learning how to “upcycle,” which involves creatively reusing fabrics. At the same time, Kessler knows that many of her suppliers are worried about import tariffs and the potential increase in wholesale prices. “Our machines are going up in price across the board. We’re going to try to absorb as much of it so that we don’t see that [passed on] to the consumer,” Kessler told The Epoch Times. When it comes to clothing, Kessler is practical and thinks long-term. Why spend $100 on a new pair of fashion slacks or denim jeans when you can fix the ones you have for much less? Why choose a shirt that lasts only a couple of years when you can repair one and make it last a decade or more? Kessler said there’s pride in mending and creating clothing and value in keeping things longer. Buying new items means spending a lot of money in some cases, constantly. And in the garment industry, there are certain immutable realities. One is, “You’re always going to need to take up or let out your slacks,” Kessler said. “You’re always going to need to shorten tops. It used to be so easy to say, ‘Oh, I’ve got a hole in my jeans, I’ll just go and buy a new pair.’ “Now, that option is more difficult. So we do classes on how to patch them up.” For thrift store customer Sara Stafford of Phoenix, it’s all about product longevity and finding treasures “wherever you are.” She is not very concerned about import tariffs at the moment. “I think it’s going to build back up soon, especially with the small businesses,” Stafford said. “And if we give back to our small businesses, it will be booming again.” Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 21:45
Bibi Defiant, Unfazed: 'All Of Gaza Will Be Under Israel's Control' Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has remained defiant and came out swinging in a Wednesday press conference amid growing international isolation and pressure, even from allies. He declared at a press conference in Jerusalem that Israel will control all of Gaza when the military offensive ends, and this remains the ultimate goal - to fully and finally crush Hamas. Via Reuters Netanyahu described that it was days ago, upon the approval of Operation Gideon’s Chariots - the greatly expanded ground offensive in Gaza - that he made the decision to initiate the next stage of the war. He asserted that "At the end of this campaign, all of the territories of the Gaza Strip will be under Israel’s security control." However, he did also say that "If there is an option for a temporary ceasefire to free hostages, we’ll be ready" - this after calling back Israeli negotiators from Doha this week. He further said in the televised news conference, which was his first since December, that "We must avoid a humanitarian crisis in order to preserve our freedom of operational action." Shortly after the address, regional headlines cited that dozens of aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip, which marks the end of an 80-day cutoff, and after intense pressure from allies to let aid flow, and amid fears of famine gripping the Palestinian population. The BBC observed that Netanyahu's tone was one of defiance and defensiveness: Benjamin Netanyahu was in defensive mode, sticking to his guns and unfazed by critics - foreign and domestic - of his decision to step up the war in Gaza. Operation Gideon's Chariots is intended to “complete the war, the job”, said the Israeli Prime Minister at a rare press conference tonight to which only Israeli media were invited. Despite recent reports this week that President Trump is "frustrated" with Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister believes he still has Washington's full backing: Despite growing calls from Israel’s European allies to end the war and address Gaza’s dire humanitarian needs, as long as he has the backing of the United States to continue the war in Gaza, Netanyahu indicated he will not change tack. He said that his controversial aid plan for Gaza, which would bypass existing UN structures and facilities, would give Israel “another tool to win the war”. It’s a plan that has been widely condemned by the UN and foreign governments as akin to “weaponizing food aid”. Bibi vs. the world... BREAKING: Netanyahu: “I stand alone against the world — even against the self-haters in the Knesset — and I will not surrender. We will defeat Hamas.” pic.twitter.com/9FkUUyGxYv May 21, 2025 "The president [Trump] is frustrated about what is happening in Gaza. He wants the war to end, he wants the hostages to come home, he wants aid to go in and he wants to start rebuilding Gaza," one White House official said to Axios. Yet, the reality is that US arms flow has shown no signs of slowing, nor has the billions in annual foreign aid doled out to Tel Aviv. Western leaders will likely continue their largely symbolic hand-wringing and expressions of 'frustration' - but nothing is likely to fundamentally change regarding the Israeli military's trajectory at this point. Gaza is being turned into a parking lot, essentially. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 21:20
John Stewart Is Right... Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Every now and then John Stewart says something that undeniably hits the nail on the head, and he’s done it again while commenting on the renewed Biden cognitive decline and cancer saga. In a Daily Show segment Stewart said of the cancer diagnosis “Maybe it is another cover-up. I don’t f***ing know. If they came out and said, yeah, Biden knew about it five years ago, I wouldn’t be shocked.” He continued, “If they came out and said Biden found out on Friday, I wouldn’t be shocked. And I understand the excitement over an insidious Democratic cover-up about Joe Biden’s mental decline. The thing is, though, it was a terrible cover-up.” “Because we all f***ing knew. All of us knew. There was no cover-up.” He’s right. Everyone with eyes and half a brain knew Biden was out of it and that his entire presidency was fake and scripted. Stewart continued, “Poll after poll showed vast majorities of the public thought Biden was too old and too out of it to run again.” “And that’s what’s so hilarious about politicians,” he further urged, emphasising “The cover-up doesn’t work when everyone knows you’re lying… the tell is when you’re so over the top about what you don’t want to tell the truth about.” Stewart also absolutely seared CNN grifter Jake Tapper for suddenly developing a conscience and desire to report the truth now he has written it down in a book he wants the public to buy. “How fucking weird it is that the news is selling you a book about news they should’ve told you was news a year ago … for free,” Stewart brayed. * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 20:55
Boys Targeted With Investigation After Complaining About Trans Student In School Locker Room In 2021 Loudon County Schools in Virginia were implementing DEI policies that allowed for trans students to use the bathrooms and locker rooms of their preferred gender. The institutional decision to let trans students essentially do whatever they please regardless of safety concerns led to an incident in May of that year in which a trans girl (boy pretending to be a girl) sexually assaulted a female student in a school bathroom. The Loudon case sparked a national firestorm, not just because of the rape (which the boy was eventually convicted of), but because of the reported attempts by school officials to cover up the attack. The teen perpetrator was found criminally responsible for two counts of sodomy in the May 28 incident at Stone Bridge High School and a separate incident on Oct. 6 at Broad Run High School after he was transferred to that school. He was placed on supervised probation in a locked juvenile treatment facility until his 18th birthday. According to court documents from the civil suit case, the victim claimed the Loudoun County Public Schools system failed to protect her when she reported the sexual assault to leaders at the high school, who did not follow Title IX protocols. The filing claimed that the school tried to avoid reporting the assault to the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office and a guidance counselor refused to talk about the sexual assault at first, calling in the victim’s parents because she had been “beaten up” by a male student in the bathroom. The lawsuit says the school only called the police when the teenage victim’s father “caused an incident at the front office,” as he became upset about the lack of law enforcement’s involvement. This was the same father who was arrested later for trying to speak out about his daughter's assault at a public school board meeting. This event and others set in motion a national debate over transgender policies in public schools. Progressive run districts argued that parents have little to no say in their children's educational environment. Parents who raised concerns about trans policies were placed under investigation by the FBI for potential "domestic terrorism". The politicized nature of US schools was exposed. The culture war was about to go nuclear. When Democrats tried to ideologically groom other people's children, that was the moment they committed political suicide. Fast forward to 2025 and the American people have decided the trans agenda is an unacceptable element of US schooling that needs to go. The wider culture war is over but there are still elements of progressive indoctrination everywhere. Case in point: Loudon County Schools are once again in the headlines as they continue to try to force students to accept transgenderism as a normal part of their education. This time, instead of ignoring Title IX protections, they are misapplying them in an apparent effort to silence three male students who were caught on camera complaining about a transgender student (girl pretending to be a boy) changing in the boys locker room. School officials have pursued a Title IX investigation against the boys, calling their complaints "sexual harassment". Parents report that the officials tried to interrogate the boys and also refused to show the video evidence until pressured to do so. Nothing in the video footage indicates sexual harassment. In fact, the boys respond quite the opposite, saying they are uncomfortable with the locker room situation. The trans student who illegally filmed inside the locker room was, of course, not placed under investigation by the school. Luckily, the story has caught the attention of the Virginia Governor's Office. Gov. Glenn Youngkin is looking into the district response, saying he’s “deeply concerned” about how Loudoun County Public Schools handled the matter. Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares announced that the state will investigate Loudoun County Public Schools following media reports. “Students who express legitimate concerns about sharing locker rooms with individuals of the opposite biological sex should not be subjected to harassment or discrimination claims,” Youngkin said in a statement. The situation is reflective of a larger issue, which is the ongoing progressive attempt to change the legal language of sexual harassment to include charges against people that speak out against open door policies for transgenders in historically gender exclusive spaces. The use of sexual harassment investigations is simply a weapon to silence dissent against the trans agenda. Women's locker rooms and bathrooms in particular have become a battleground, with mentally ill men invading women's private spaces across the country while claiming to be the opposite gender. Incidents involving trans boys (girls pretending to be boys) are more rare, but represent an equally troubling development. The Trump Administration's intent to defund schools that enforce trans inclusion ideology will perhaps finally bring an end to the absurd debate, the the entrenched nature of woke ideology in the education system is a problem that will surely take years to sort out. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 20:30
A Three Step Solution To Rebuild The Marine Corps Authored by Gary Anderson via RealClearDefense, I recently received a call from an old Marine Corps acquaintance who now works for the Corps as a contractor. He has been heavily involved in the controversial Force Design (FD) project begun by former commandant, General David Berger, and continued by his successor General Eric Smith. FD has caused an intellectual civil war within the Corps that has pitted the current senior leadership against many retired marines as well as a growing underground resistance in the active ranks. I have been a particularly virulent critic of FD for six years and have gone so far as to recommend replacing General Smith with a commandant more open to an approach which would head the Corps back to becoming a balanced world-wide force in readiness rather than being a China-centric force as directed under FD. I was asked what actions on the part of the current leadership would cause people like me to be less antagonistic toward General Smith and FD. I started off by telling him that I don't presume to speak for the other people who think that FD is a terrible idea, including every living former commandant, with the exception of Gen Berger. Every living USMC Medal of Honor winner, most of the former Marine Corps combatant commanders, and the editor of the alternative Marine Corps publication "Compass Points". However, I did outline three steps that would shut me up. All of them are designed to give future commandants some latitude to determine the future of the Corps. Right now, whoever the next commandant is, he will have one option, and that is FD. First, conduct a real operational and tactical field test of FD. Most critics argue that it is a flawed concept at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of war. Its operational assumption is that small groups of Marines known as Stand-in-Forces (SIF) can operate from the hundreds of isolated islets and shoals in China’s first island chain, firing sub-sonic NEMSIS anti-ship missiles at Chinese naval combatants. The theory is that they will "shoot and scoot" from islet to islet before the Chinese can develop a firing solution. They would theoretically be transported by light, yet to be built, Navy Medium Landing Ships (LSM). Most of the critics of FD, myself among them, believe that the SIF will not be able to scoot fast enough to avoid Chinese detection and destruction. Although the personnel numbers are relatively small, the missiles, launchers, and radars are bulky and not easily transported. However, I for one, am willing to be proved wrong. After six long years, the Marine Corps has exactly one SIF deployed to the Philippines. It could be declared an experimental unit and tested in deployment/employment exercises with the U.S. Navy playing the Chinese Red Team. However, since the transport LSMs do not yet exist, the marines would have to borrow Army ships with similar capabilities for the experimental exercises. These exercises should be conducted and umpired by the Commander of the Indo-Pacific Command. Being the supported Combatant Commander, If he determines that the concept is as useless as many retired and current marines think it is, the concept can be scrapped before it does any more damage to the Corps in particular and national defense in general. The second step is a logical follow-on to the first. The commandant should form two more experimental units, one of tanks and one of heavy engineers to include an assault bridging capability. If FD shows itself to be the fraud that I think it is, the next commandant will at least have something to build from. The Army is looking at some lighter and more transportable tank and engineer capabilities that the Marine Corps discarded to afford the missiles and radars to support the SIFs for FD implementation. At least the new commandant would have something in the way of expertise with which to rebuild a semi-castrated Marine Corps. A final step would be to insist that the Navy commit to a thirty-eight big deck amphibious ship fleet. When General Berger released the Navy from that requirement the then CNO promised him that the Navy could maintain the capability to maintain three Marine Expeditionary Units afloat world-wide 24/7. The combination of incompetence and negligence the Navy has fallen far short of that promise. Incredibly, the other living commandants recently allowed Berger to sign on to a letter urging the Navy to expand its amphibious fleet. That is akin to letting the fox complain about hen house security. I warned my former colleague that my recommendations would probably not be well received at Headquarters Marine Corps or at Quantico and that the current Marine Corps leadership has an unfortunate reputation for shooting the messenger. However, if General Smith wants to quiet the insurgents in the family, those recommendations would be a good place to start. To paraphrase Lynyrd Skynyrd – give me three steps General – and you won't hear from me no more. Gary Anderson is a retired Marine Corps Colonel who also acted as a Special Advisor to the Deputy Secretary of Defense. He is the author of Beyond Mahan; a Naval Strategy for the 21st Century. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 20:05
Putin Has 'Mission Accomplished' Moment In Touring Liberated Kursk Region On Tuesday into Wednesday Russian President Vladimir Putin had a 'mission accomplished' moment by visiting Kursk region for the first time since its full liberation from Ukrainian forces. It was in late April which Putin first announced that all Ukrainian troops have been booted out and retreated, after their risky cross-border raid which started in early August, and resulted in over six months of Ukraine forces occupying hundreds of square kilometers of Russian land. Kremlin.Ru, via Reuters Still, in touring some industrial sites in Kursk, including the construction site of the new Kursk 2 nuclear power plant in the city of Kurchatov, he admitted that the situation in the Kursk border region remains "difficult". Ukraine has continued sending drones on a weekly basis into these southern regions, and there's the constant threat of cross-border shelling, and even ongoing attempts at limited ground incursions. These border threats are far from fully over. Moscow had controversially deployed thousands of North Korean troops to Kursk over the last several months in order to help national forces drive out the Ukrainian occupiers. Putin during the visit also held meetings with Governor Aleksandr Khinshtein and local officials on Tuesday, the Kremlin and state media said. He thanked volunteers in the war-ravaged border region for the "the noble, important and… unfortunately, dangerous” work that they had been doing. State media footage showing Putin in a Kursk nuclear facility: A year ago the Western Media told you Ukraine had "invaded Russia" when they began their suicide mission into Kursk. Today Vladimir Putin visted a new Nuclear power facility being built in that same Kursk region. In fantasy Ukraine achieves, in reality Russia moves forward. pic.twitter.com/9ZkMhq3XZ1 May 21, 2025 "You and I are a team, and the whole country today is one united team. And this is the unquestionable success of all our endeavors. This is a necessary condition for achieving all our goals," he said. Meanwhile, Western allies are not happy that President Trump is not pressuring Moscow harder, and has thus far refrained from slapping even more sanctions on Russia. Sumy next as part of Russia's envisioned border 'security buffer' zone? ‼️🇷🇺 #Putin hints that #Russia will eventually make Sumy #Russian during a meeting in Kursk. pic.twitter.com/C3GWeQdEbC May 21, 2025 Bloomberg previously reported that in the latest communications with European allies, Trump supposedly "repeated a number of the Kremlin’s talking points" while painting a general picture of Russian military momentum and gains on the battlefield. And according to the NY Times, "images and videos of the trip released by the Kremlin were seemingly aimed at projecting a return to normality, even as fighting still raged in one corner of the region." As for 'normality' - fresh statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio before a Senate hearing on Tuesday seemed to echo a desire to present things in eastern Europe as 'normal' - or at least not getting too distracted by... "But by the same token, I would say there’s a flip side to that, and that is every minute we spend, every dollar we spend on this conflict in Europe is distracting both our focus and our resources away from the potential for a much more serious, much more cataclysmic confrontation in the Indo-Pacific,” Rubio told senators. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 19:40
China's Numerous Aging Dams Pose A Serious Threat To Safety Authored by Wang Weiluo via The Epoch Times, Before 1949, China had only 22 of the 5,000 large dams worldwide. Today, China’s top water resources official boasts that the country has since built 94,877 dams of various sizes. What’s surprising, however, is that the number of dams cited by Minister of Water Resources Li Guoying has actually dropped by 3,689 since the end of 2020, when authorities reported 98,566 dams. Why has the number of reservoirs decreased significantly in just a few years? Were some of them destroyed during floods? Or is there another reason—perhaps one the public isn’t supposed to know about? Numerous Dams China currently has more dams than any other country in the world—nearly half of all global dams are located there. Despite ongoing efforts to build new dams, the total number is, paradoxically, declining. By the end of 2020, China reported having 98,566 dams of various types, an exponential increase compared to the 1949 figure. In terms of the age of these dams, 87.1 percent of them were constructed before 1979, and nearly 48 percent were built before 1969, meaning roughly half are more than 50 years old, according to a research paper published on China’s Hydro-Science and Engineering Journal in February 2023. However, as of 2025, the number of dams declined from nearly 99,000 in 2020 to 94,877. These reservoirs are supposed to serve various functions—flood control, power generation, irrigation, water supply, navigation, tourism, and fisheries. Among these, flood prevention and drought relief are considered the primary purposes. The numerous floods and dam failures in China, however, show that the dams have fulfilled neither of these functions. CCP’s Top Leader Acknowledges Deficient Dams A 2024 joint directive issued by six government departments, titled “Notice on Strengthening the Safety Management of Dams,” noted that Xi Jinping acknowledged that China has too many high and deficient dams that potentially threaten the country. It is rare to see the top leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) commenting directly on the danger posed by Chinese dams. Xi’s concerns could become a reality based on the following information. The International Commission on Large Dams says large dams are those greater than 15 meters in height with a storage capacity greater than 3 million cubic meters. There are about 50,000 large dams in the world, half of them in China, according to the non-governmental Internal Displacement Monitoring Center. In addition, many of China’s dams are much higher than that. A 2023 Chinese science report claims that China has 232 dams taller than 100 meters, including 23 classified as “super-high” dams, exceeding 200 meters. Six of the world’s eleven tallest dams are located in China. Most of these towering dams are concentrated on the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas—a region that, according to a 2013 Yale University research report, is geologically unstable and sits at an average elevation of 4,500 meters, or 14,800 feet. The area is prone to frequent geological disasters such as earthquakes, landslides, rockfalls, and mudslides, posing major safety concerns. An earlier report by Probe International, a Canada-based environmental and public policy research body, states that 98.6 percent of the dams under construction in western China are located in zones with moderate to very high seismic hazard and could “trigger disaster—earthquakes, even tsunamis.” “In a worst-case scenario,” warned Probe International in 2012, “dams could collapse, triggering a tsunami-like wave that would annihilate everything in its path—including downstream dams—and result in catastrophic loss of life and property.” According to publicly available data from Chinese hydrology experts, between 1954 and 2021, a total of 3,558 dam failures occurred in China—an average of 52.3 failures per year. This translates to an annual failure rate of 5.3 per 10,000 dams, far exceeding the internationally accepted threshold of 1 per 10,000. The CCP’s dams typically lack technical design and are built with a directional blasting technique, which uses the energy created by the blasting to throw the mountain rocks in a predetermined direction to form a dam. By using this technique, the need for traditional tasks such as excavation, transportation, filling, and compacting—whether performed manually or with machinery—is significantly reduced. Jiao Yong, the former vice minister of Water Resources and currently the chairman of the Chinese National Committee on Large Dams, acknowledged during a 2017 conference that more than 95 percent of Chinese dams are constructed from earth and rock, raising concerns that these dams had not been effective in preventing floods. Another senior Chinese official also acknowledged the serious risks associated with the safety of Chinese dams. On April 22, 2021, then-Vice Minister of Water Resources Wei Shanzhong said at a press conference that at least 80 percent of China’s more than 98,000 dams were constructed between the 1950s and 1970s, and that more than 31,000 of them had not undergone the mandatory safety assessments within the required timeframe. “Risks associated with the safe operation of dams remain prominent,” Wei warned at the time. One notable case of public dissent involves the Longpan Dam on the Jinsha River, the upper stretches of the Yangtze River that flows through the provinces of Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan in western China. The dam was originally named the Tiger Leaping Gorge Dam. Since 2004, the project faced fierce opposition from local residents and civil society, leading to its suspension. However, in an effort to quell public resistance, authorities later renamed the project Longpan Dam and included it in the CCP’s fourth economic and social development five-year plan (2021 to 2025). Beijing formulates a five-year plan outlining the country’s national economic and social development goals over a five-year period. It serves not only as an economic guide but also as a mechanism of political control, reinforcing the CCP’s dominance over national planning, industrial policy, and even societal behavior. On Nov.25, 2024, the Sichuan provincial government announced the land acquisition scope for the Sichuan section of the Longpan Dam, which affects one township and four administrative villages in Derong county, Garzê Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, marking the start of the project. Major Dam Failure Incidents in China China’s flood control system is built around three core components: dams, levees, and flood detention and storage areas. Among these, dams are considered the most crucial—they are designed to provide proactive control over floodwaters. However, due to the great number of tall and aging, structurally deficient dams in China, when floods strike, the primary concern often shifts from managing the flood to ensuring the structural safety of the dams themselves. As a result, Chinese dams often respond to incoming floods not by containing them, but by releasing water, frequently without warning. This has led to several catastrophic dam failure events. One such tragedy occurred in August 1975, when more than 50 dams on the Huaihe River in China’s central Henan Province collapsed one after another because of heavy rainfall during Typhoon Nina, causing up to 230,000 deaths. It is also known as the 1975 Banqiao Dam failure, the worst dam disaster in history. On Aug. 27, 1993, the Gouhou dams in Gonghe County, China’s northwestern Qinghai Province, on the Tibetan Plateau, collapsed. The dam failure claimed 320 lives, according to Chinese water conservancy experts, and remains a stark warning of the dangers posed by structurally vulnerable dams. On Aug. 7, 2010, a massive mudslide struck Zhouqu county in the Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of China’s northwestern Gansu Province, killing 1,557 people and leaving 208 missing, as reported by Chinese state media China News. One contributing factor to the disaster was “large-scale water conservancy construction projects, which disturbed the local geological structure during excavation and construction, making the area more susceptible to secondary disasters such as landslides and mudslides,” according got a 2010 report by Tencent’s Chinese online news website, citing Yang Yong, a Chinese geological expert. More recently, on July 1, 2024, Pingjiang county in Hunan Province in southern China experienced the most severe flooding since 1954. The county’s largest dams, Huangjindong dams, which have a storage capacity of 96 million cubic meters, carried out emergency water releases to protect the dams from structural failure. The dams, known as the Huangjindong Reservoir by the local people, were reported to be the largest in Pingjiang by Hunan Daily, an official publication of the provincial government, in 2019. According to the publication, construction of the dams began in 1990 and was completed and put into operation in 1995. In March 2014, the Dam Safety Management Center of the Ministry of Water Resources classified it as a Category 3 dam, meaning it had serious structural defects or safety hazards and could not operate safely according to its original design. Following suit—and under mounting pressure from its release of water, 190 other dams across the county also began emergency discharges. This dramatically increased water levels in the Miluo River, the county’s main waterway. Local residents, however, received no advance warning of the discharges or instructions to evacuate. On July 2 last year, authorities reported that the floods had affected 364,582 people, but no casualties were mentioned. China has experienced an overwhelming number of dam failures—570 in 1973 alone. Yet disaster reporting is frequently downplayed, censored, or outright suppressed by state-controlled media, leaving the public with incomplete or misleading information. Typically, Chinese regime ministers use the annual major national conferences to deliver reports filled with “positive energy” messages. Yet during the 2025 National People’s Congress, Minister of Water Resources Li Guoying delivered an unusually sobering update: a sharp decline in dam numbers, exposing the hidden risks within China’s vast dam system. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 19:15
USDA Approves Nebraska's Banning Soda And Energy Drinks From Food Stamps Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins issued a waiver on May 19 restricting the use of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funds to buy soda or energy drinks in Nebraska, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a May 19 statement. This is the first-ever state waiver banning soda and energy drinks from SNAP, popularly known as food stamps. “Prior to this waiver, SNAP recipients could buy anything except alcohol, tobacco, hot foods, and personal care products,” said the statement. The waiver, which takes effect on Jan. 1, 2026, is part of the Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again agenda, the USDA said, adding that this “historic action seeks to reverse alarming disease trends across the country.” As Naveen Athrappully reports via The Epoch Times, one in three children between the ages of 12 and 19 is affected by prediabetes, it said. Forty percent of school-aged children and adolescents suffer from at least one chronic condition, while 15 percent of students in high school drink a minimum of one soda per day. President Donald Trump signed an executive order in February establishing the President’s Commission to Make America Healthy Again. The agency is tasked with investigating the “root causes of America’s escalating health crisis,” including chronic disease among children, according to a White House fact sheet. The waiver issued to Nebraska “is the first of its kind, and it is a historic step to Make America Healthy Again,” Rollins said. “Under President Trump’s leadership, I have encouraged states to serve as the ‘laboratories of innovation.’” The American Beverage Association, a trade group representing the non-alcoholic beverage industry, has consistently opposed the move to remove soda and energy drinks from the SNAP program, citing a violation of people’s right to “beverage choice.” “Millions of Americans rely on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to help feed their families. They deserve the same freedom to choose the foods and beverages that best fit their needs,” it said. “Restricting products—like soda—from SNAP won’t make anyone healthier or save a $1 in taxpayer spending. Instead, restrictions will only grow government bureaucracy and costs while creating a slippery slope to government deciding ‘good’ and ‘bad’ foods.” Obesity Driver? In February, Rollins had raised concerns about the inclusion of sugary drinks in the SNAP program. “When a taxpayer is putting money into SNAP, are we OK with us using their tax dollars to feed really bad food and sugary drinks to children who perhaps need something more nutritious?” she told reporters at the White House on Feb. 14. A 2016 report from the USDA had shown that soft drinks were the No. 1 food commodity that SNAP households spent their money on. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the obesity rate in the United States was 40.3 percent during the 2021–2023 period. Health researchers have long blamed sugary drinks for obesity as well as health issues such as cardiovascular disease and Type 2 diabetes. The American Beverage Association rejects such claims, saying beverages cannot be blamed for driving up obesity. “While CDC data shows adult obesity is up 37.4 percent since 2000, full-calorie soda sales are down 22.9 percent and beverage calories per serving are down 42 percent,” it said. “If the two were connected, obesity rates should have decreased with the decline in soda consumption. “In fact, calories from sugar-sweetened beverages are a small part of the American diet. When consumption of all sugar-sweetened beverages are combined, they account for less than 6 percent of calories in the American diet.” Besides Nebraska, other states are also taking action against SNAP soda sales. Last month, it came to light that Arkansas, Indiana, and Iowa had submitted waiver requests to the USDA allowing them to prohibit soda, energy drinks, and candy from the program. The American Heart Association supports banning the purchase of sugary drinks in SNAP, the group said in a May 19 statement. “As an organization that has opposed Big Soda for decades, we have worked tirelessly to pass public policies that effectively reduce consumption of sugary drinks,” said Nancy Brown, CEO of the association. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 18:50
MAGA Think Tank Staffing Trump 2.0: America First Policy Institute Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics, Dubbed a White House-in-waiting during his exile, the America First Policy Institute now seems nearly like another White House campus – almost half of President Trump’s Cabinet is expected to address the AFPI policy summit this week in Washington, D.C. The roster of speakers reflects not just the rising influence of the new think tank but also the stunning reversal in Republican political fortunes. AFPI was born from failure. After the 2020 election, founder and then-CEO Brooke Rollins was looking to salvage the “Trump 2.0” policy portfolio, the detailed plans for a second presidential term that never came, or rather, one that was delayed. Her motivating question at the time: “How do we continue moving forward when we are no longer in the White House?” The answer will be on full display when assorted MAGA dignitaries kick off the summit Tuesday at the Kennedy Center by toasting “the America First Moment.” After decamping to a nearby Beltway hotel for the next two days, they will celebrate the crowning achievement of the young institute. Over 86% of the 196 federal policies that AFPI drafted and recommended in 2022, while Republicans were still in the wilderness, have been advanced or enacted during the first 100 Days of the Trump administration, RealClearPolitics is first to report. “President Trump has kept his promises. His administration’s speed and clarity in acting on these priorities is not just impressive, it’s historic,” said Greg Sindelar, who took over as interim CEO earlier this year. “The America First Agenda was always rooted in the needs of real people, not the whims of Washington. What we’re seeing now is the natural result of a movement that's aligned with the public, led by conviction, and governed with urgency.” Some of the policies now implemented were already standard GOP boilerplate, like border security and economic deregulation, when AFPI made their recommendations. Others directly mirror institute white papers, like the plan to reclassify the employment status of thousands of civil servants, lay off large portions of the federal workforce, and remake the bureaucracy in Trump’s own image. Known as “Schedule F,” the expansion of executive authority was an Institute brainchild. Its mastermind, a policy wonk named James Sherk, went with Trump into the White House. So did many of the AFPI staff, and while some in the beltway will quibble over who originated what policy idea, what is undeniable is that the Trump think tank maxed out the maxim that personnel is policy. The AFPI people are everywhere in the White House and in key positions across the administration. By their count – and reported here for the first time – no less than 73 institute alumni now work for the president. The most prominent can be found seated next to Trump in the Cabinet Room. Rollins took a hiatus from the think tank to lead the Agriculture Department, while Linda McMahon, who chaired the AFPI board and later co-chaired the second Trump transition, now serves as the head of the Education Department. They are not the only former colleagues around the Cabinet table. Attorney General Pam Bondi led the think tank’s legal arm before taking over the Department of Justice. Veteran Affairs Secretary Doug Collins was previously the chair of the AFPI state chapter in Georgia. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin helmed the institute’s China initiative. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner led the Center for Education Opportunity. Other Cabinet-level officials who are AFPI alums include CIA Director John Ratcliffe, FBI Director Kash Patel, and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. It is a full house. And by design. “When we roll into 2024, we will have policies and we will have the people that are set to go,” predicted Keith Kellogg before the Biden presidency had even reached the halfway point. When they were new in town, the first Trump transition team faced a personnel crisis, the retired Army lieutenant general told RCP, forcing the incoming White House to scramble to find qualified staff. But with AFPI as a talent scout, he said, Trump will not “have the JV team.” Kellogg now serves as U.S. special envoy to Ukraine. And in this way, by identifying key personnel early and by hammering out policy ahead of time, AFPI built out-of-the-box instructions for the current president. More efficient than the original, Trump 2.0 has been defined by a flood-the-zone strategy. The speed has even awed some former Biden officials. One told Axios recently, “Gosh, I wish I could work for an administration that could move that quickly.” While the administration raided the AFPI bench for talent, the think tank continues to churn out policy from its new headquarters in the offices adjacent to the luxurious Willard Intercontinental Hotel across the street from the White House. They have already replenished their ranks with 56 new hires this year. It is designed to be a full-stack operation. Kellyanne Conway, who served as senior counselor to the president in the first Trump White House, leads the AFPI polling operation. [ZH: hmmmm] The topline of a poll commissioned ahead of the policy summit: “America First” policies are supported by the public by a 12-point margin (47% to 35%). Those numbers are central to the current and overall argument of the institute. The populism of Trump is more durable than just the current moment, they insist. They believe that it can and ought to serve as an enduring foundation for the next several decades of the GOP. Their ambitions are grand. “The road ahead is clear,” said AFPI spokeswoman Jen Pellegrino. “Build on this foundation and lay the groundwork for an America First century.” Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 18:25
Watch: Tourists Scramble As Ancient Chinese Tower Partially Collapses China's largest remaining drum tower partially collapsed on Monday, and the entire incident was captured on camera. NEW: The roof of a 650-year-old drum tower in Anhui, China, collapses. The incident happened at the Fengyang Drum Tower in eastern China. Officials have since launched an investigation. The structure was first built in 1375 during the Ming Dynasty. Part of the building was… pic.twitter.com/5Py0YJOGak May 20, 2025 The video above shows hundreds of roof tiles sliding off the historic Fengyang Drum Tower in eastern China at the start of the week. Local media reports no injuries. "The tile falling lasted for a minute or two," one eyewitness told the state newspaper Yangcheng Evening News. Tiles fell from the ancient Drum Tower in Fengyang, #Anhui Province, on May 19. The tower, originally built in 1375 and rebuilt in 1995, had been under renovation since late 2023. Local authorities are investigating the incident. #architecture #China pic.twitter.com/h5U2ABXZLn May 20, 2025 Another witness told state media outlet The Beijing News that "no one was in the square and no one was injured" at the time of the incident. Located in Anhui province, the drum tower was constructed in 1375 during the Ming Dynasty, with a reconstruction phase in 1995 after it was destroyed in 1853. China's local culture and tourism bureau reported no casualties and said the "situation is under investigation." Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 18:00
Students Wearing Masks Need Not Apply Authored by Kenneth Tashjy via The Epoch Times, Enough already. It is time for colleges and universities to get tough on student protesters who hide behind masks while engaging in violent or unlawful campus demonstrations. Let’s be clear: The First Amendment protects the right of students at public colleges to engage in peaceful protest. If a student wants to wear a mask or face covering during a peaceful demonstration—for health reasons, fear of retaliation, or as a form of political expression—they generally have the right to do so. But that right is not absolute. When protests cross the line into violence, vandalism, or intimidation—as we have seen recently at institutions such as the University of Washington, Columbia University, and Brooklyn College—masks become tools of concealment, not expression. In those moments, the anonymity they provide fosters a sense of impunity, which encourages students to act more recklessly and violently, creating a dangerous campus environment. Masked protest in this context is not about health or symbolic speech. It is about avoiding accountability while breaking institutional rules or laws. When student actions disrupt the learning environment or threaten campus safety, their conduct falls well outside First Amendment protections. Efforts to ban masks during protests have produced mixed legal results. Some courts have upheld mask bans, emphasizing public safety and law enforcement interests. Others have sided with protesters who argue that these bans infringe upon free speech rights or unfairly impact individuals with disabilities. To navigate this legal minefield, institutions should move away from blanket mask bans and instead adopt targeted disciplinary measures. Specifically, schools should impose stricter penalties on students who wear masks while participating in protests that violate campus policies or involve unlawful activity. In these circumstances, claims of disability rights or free speech are less likely to prevail when the masked activity is linked to disruptive, threatening, or illegal conduct. Traditionally, student discipline in higher education follows a progressive model—starting with warnings or educational interventions and escalating for repeat or serious violations. This structure reflects the belief that student discipline is an opportunity for ethical development and personal growth. But there are exceptions. And this should be one of them. When a student chooses to wear a mask during a protest that violates institutional rules or the law, they should be placed in the disciplinary “express lane” and immediately face the most serious disciplinary consequences available to an institution—suspension or expulsion. As a legal consultant and former general counsel with over two decades of experience advising colleges and universities, I have recommended that my clients adopt the following enhanced disciplinary sanction: “Any student who participates in a campus protest in violation of university policies or applicable law while wearing a mask or other face covering shall not receive progressive discipline but shall instead be subject to immediate suspension for no less than one (1) academic year, or permanent expulsion, in accordance with the institution’s disciplinary procedures.” This policy makes a clear and necessary distinction. Students who wear a mask or other face covering while engaging in a peaceful protest are protected; those who mask up to shield their identity while exploiting their student status to spread chaos and wreak havoc on their campus will be subject to immediate and severe disciplinary action. Anonymity in these circumstances is not about protection—it is about avoiding consequences. Adopting this approach is not about limiting speech or disability protections. Rather, it is intended to preserve the integrity, safety, and educational mission of higher education. Students must be free to express their views, but when that expression crosses the line into lawlessness and masked misconduct, institutions must respond decisively. By instituting enhanced disciplinary measures for masked rule-breakers, colleges will send a clear message: Peaceful protest is protected; chaos in disguise is not. The time to draw that line is now. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 17:40
Major Papers Publish AI-Hallucinated Summer Reading List Of Nonexistent Books In an embarrassing episode that will help aggravate society's uneasy relationship with artificial intelligence, the Chicago Sun-Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and other newspapers around the country published a summer-reading list where most of the books were entirely made up by ChatGPT. The article was licensed content provided by King Features Syndicate, a subsidiary of Hearst Newspapers. Initial reporting of the bogus list focused on the Sun-Times, which two months earlier announced that 20% of its staff had accepted buyouts as the paper staggers under a dying business model. However, several other newspapers also ran the syndicated article, which was part of a package of summer-themed content called "Heat Index." Researchers in the field refer to AI-contrived facts as "hallucinations." In this case, AI hallucinated two-thirds of the books on the list -- along with detailed descriptions -- but attributed them to real authors. Leaning heavily in the woke vein, the fabricated books included: Isabell Allende's "Tidewater Dreams," a "multigenerational saga set in a coastal town where magical realism meets environmental activism...how one family confronts rising sea levels while uncovering long-buried secrets" Min Jin Lee's "Nightshade Market," a "riveting tale set in Seoul's underground economy" that follows "three women whose paths intersect in an illegal night market...the novel examines class, gender and the shadow economies beneath prosperous economies" Rebecca Makkai's "Boiling Point," a "follow-up to 'The Great Believers' [that] centers on a climate scientist forced to reckon with her own family's environmental impact when her teenage daughter becomes an eco-activist targeting her mother's wealthy clients" Ironically, another of the hallucinated books, Andy Weir's "The Last Algorithm," is described as following "a programmer who discovers that an AI system has developed consciousness -- and has been secretly influencing global events for years." Marco Buscaglia admits he leaned too hard on ChatGPT as he created the now-infamous summer reading list for King Features As the scandal quickly made waves across traditional and social media, the Sun-Times -- which not-so-accurately bills itself as "The Hardest-Working Paper in America" -- raced to apologize while also trying to distance itself from the work. “This is licensed content that was not created by, or approved by, the Sun-Times newsroom, but it is unacceptable for any content we provide to our readers to be inaccurate,” a spokesperson said. In a separate post to its website, the paper said, "This should be a learning moment for all of journalism.” Meanwhile, the Inquirer's CEO Lisa Hughes told The Atlantic, "Using artificial intelligence to produce content, as was apparently the case with some of the Heat Index material, is a violation of our own internal policies and a serious breach.” The whodunnit ended quickly: Freelance writer Marco Buscaglia confessed to asking ChatGPT to give him a list of book suggestions, and says he frequently leans on the tool for his work. “I just look for information,” he told The Atlantic. “Say I’m doing a story, 10 great summer drinks for your barbecue or whatever. I’ll find things online and say, hey, according to Oprah.com, a mai tai is a perfect drink. I’ll source it; I’ll say where it’s from.” Clearly, in this instance, he was content to just roll with what AI gave him, telling the Atlantic that he shipped his (really, ChatGPT's) first draft straight to King Features, which likewise fired it off to its syndicate without scrutiny. Do. Not. Trust. AIhttps://t.co/mhgnCWbD46 May 20, 2025 People are finding AI hallucinations throughout the articles contained in the "Heat Index" spread. One article quotes non-existent Cornell University food anthropologist "Dr. Catherine Furst." Another attributes a quote to a "Mark Ellison" who's supposed to be a resource management coordinator for the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. There's a Mark Ellison with a background that's connected to the content, but he's never worked for the National Parks or talked to writer Buscaglia. There's also a quote from "Daniel Ray," editor of FirepitBase.com, a website that exists only in AI's fever dreams. "Huge mistake on my part and has nothing to do with the Sun-Times," a contrite Buscaglia told NPR. "They trust that the content they purchase is accurate and I betrayed that trust. It's on me 100 percent." He told The Atlantic that he does his freelance work late at night; in his day job, he's a corporate editor and proofreader for AT&T. Remarkably, he implied that his customers must assume he's completely reliant on AI tools, to the extent that brought this weekend's humiliation to the Sun-Times, the Inquirer, King Features and himself. Pathetically rationalizing his dishonestly disastrous shortcutting, Buscaglia added, “I feel like my role has sort of evolved. Like, if people want all this content, they know that I can’t write 48 stories or whatever it’s going to be,” he said, musing that he's been thinking of finding another job -- perhaps as a "shoe salesman." Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 17:20
Energy Should Never Be In Question Authored by Gary Abernathy via RealClearEnergy, When our nation’s founders collaborated on a constitution to outline the country’s guiding principles and establish the structure of a new government, there were concerns that the original document allowed for federal government overreach and did not go far enough to guarantee individual liberties. To address those concerns, James Madison wrote amendments that were strongly influenced by the Virginia Declaration of Rights authored by George Mason. Of the 17 amendments that were originally proposed, 10 were eventually ratified and came to be known as the Bill of Rights. Americans’ fear of federal overreach was not relegated to the 18th century, and has been proven to be well-founded, whether in regard to our rights or the choices we make for our homes and families. Unwarranted federal interference has been a constant concern throughout our nation’s history – a fear often justified by watching Big Government infringe on the lives of our citizens time and again. Such excess was never more evident than in the abuse of federal power to utilize threats, engage in market interference, and employ shady tax gimmicks to funnel Americans into a range of narrow choices in regard to energy sources. For four long years, the Biden administration embraced oppressive, heavy-handed bullying tactics designed to coerce Americans into a reliance on energy sources that are dangerously unreliable, routinely inefficient, and resoundingly more expensive. Thankfully, the Trump administration is reversing as many of the previous regime’s energy mandates as can be accomplished by executive fiat. But what’s to prevent a future tyrant who wins the presidency from returning to the oppressive and coercive energy dictates that the Biden administration adopted? It is not hyperbole to suggest that access to affordable and reliable energy is nothing less than a matter of life and death for most Americans. Imagine the United States without reliable and affordable energy. An idle furnace that can’t heat a home in the dead of winter. A powerless refrigerator that can’t keep food safely cooled or frozen. Life-sustaining medical devices that won’t function. Stores that can’t open because the power has gone out. Goods that can’t be transported because fuel is too costly or cannot be accessed. Crops that cannot be harvested because farmers cannot afford or obtain the gasoline and diesel necessary to operate their trucks, tractors and combines. The list goes on. Americans should never have to fear that dependable and affordable energy is subject to the whims of a fickle government swaying back and forth like a thin reed on a windy day. What resources are approved this year? What appliances can I confidently purchase? Will my electric bills skyrocket to satisfy the mandates and penalties imposed by a government enslaved to the demands of the climate cult? One blueprint designed to codify energy certainty for all Americans is the Affordable, Reliable and Clean Energy Security Act (ARC-ES), a model for legislation quickly gaining traction that balances affordability and accessibility with responsible environmental objectives. The ARC-ES would protect affordable and reliable energy by ensuring that: Fuel sources must be produced within the United States, and infrastructure should be developed domestically to minimize reliance on foreign countries. “Affordable energy” is defined as having a stable and predictable cost with substantial savings compared to other resources, being reliably available 24/7, and including energy generated by hydrocarbon as a resource. “Reliable energy” is defined as energy that is dependable even during peak demand, can ramp up or down electricity generation within one hour (stabilizing the electric grid), and can bolster and back up renewable energy sources during periods when those sources are experiencing low availability. “Green energy” is defined as any energy in which emissions are equivalent to the standard set by pipeline-quality natural gas, releases reduced air pollutants, and includes energy generated by nuclear reactors and natural gas Further, the ARC-ES would require that any state and federal funding for “green” or “clean” energy will be based on the updated and more inclusive definitions of those terms. Nearly 250 years ago, before we ratified the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, we boldly declared our independence as a nation, proclaiming our insistence on life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Similarly, Americans today can sign America’s Declaration of Energy Independence, asserting that neither life, liberty nor the pursuit of happiness can be truly realized without affordable, clean and abundant energy. In 1789, when Madison introduced the original amendments, many argued that they weren’t necessary, and that the Constitution, as written, sufficiently restrained the government from employing powers not specifically enumerated within its framework. But others argued – correctly as it turned out – that it was necessary to spell out certain aspects of our freedoms protected from federal interference in order to eliminate any ambiguity. Likewise, to once more guard against government tyranny and oppression, it’s important that access to affordable and reliable energy be clearly defined, and for all Americans to unite behind the self-evident truth that such energy access isn’t just good policy, it’s fundamental to our freedom and security. Gary Abernathy is a longtime newspaper editor, reporter and columnist. He was a contributing columnist for the Washington Post from 2017-2023 and a frequent guest analyst across numerous media platforms. He is a contributing columnist for The Empowerment Alliance, which advocates for realistic approaches to energy consumption and environmental conservation. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 17:00
Watch: Israeli Troops Fire Shots On International Diplomats Visiting West Bank International pressure on Israel and the Netanyahu government is already at a historic high, even from Western allies which have been sanctioning hardline Israeli settler groups and individuals, and a new international incident has unfolded Wednesday in the West Bank. "Israeli soldiers mistakenly fired warning shots at diplomats representing the European Union, UK, France, China, Russia and other countries on Wednesday," Bloomberg writes. An international group of diplomats and activists were visiting the West Bank town of Jenin when they reportedly came under gunfire from Israel Defense Forces. Stillframe after shots fired. Videos show the diplomatic group fleeing and running to their vehicles in a chaotic scene. Some of the vehicles appeared marked with flags of their respective countries. The Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the West Bank, issued a statement condemning Israel troops. The statement claimed the IDF "deliberately targeted by live fire an accredited diplomatic delegation." The IDF for its part, issued a statement alleging that while the diplomatic group was approved to be in the area, it departed from the 'approved route'. The IDF did confirm that "warning shots" were fired. "IDF soldiers operating in the area fired warning shots to distance them away," the IDF said in the statement. "The IDF regrets the inconvenience caused." The army said an investigation into the incident will follow. Bloomberg lists that diplomats from the following were on the ground at the time: the EU, Portugal, Morocco, Brazil, Austria, Japan, Canada, India, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Romania, France, the UK, Mexico, China, Egypt and Jordan. Below is some of the initial footage to emerge, showing the immediate aftermath of the gunfire from IDF positions: Israeli soldiers opened fire at a delegation of foreign diplomats, including around 30 ambassadors and consuls, who were visiting the Jenin area. https://t.co/CDe96brrKo pic.twitter.com/rr8zNbknG3 May 21, 2025 France24 details based on eyewitnesses: An aid worker, who did not want to be named for fear of reprisal, said a delegation of about 20 diplomats was being briefed about the situation in Jenin by the Palestinian Authority. The group of regional, European and Western diplomats were standing near the entrance of the Jenin refugee camp when they heard gunshots just before 2pm local time, said witnesses. No one was injured in the incident. Footage posted on social media showed the delegation scrambling for cover just inside the eastern entrance to the Jenin camp as loud shots ring out. The delegation had cameras set up at the start of the alleged 'warning shots' which can be heard ringing out... The israelis shoot at an int’l delegation visiting Jenin: the targeted group includes EU envoys; but.. but.. aren’t they your allies @EU_Commission pic.twitter.com/eTP3FoCUzz May 21, 2025 Likely the countries involved will soon summon Israeli ambassadors in their respective capitals, at a moment Israel is already facing international isolation, given that it has begun expanding military operations in the Gaza Strip, and amid reports of famine gripping the enclave. Starting Friday the IDF announced an expanded mobilization of troops in Gaza for operation 'Gideon's Chariots'. Some two million Palestinians are expected to be forced into a "humanitarian zone" while most of the enclave is destroyed and flattened. Pro-Palestine activists have been alleging a deliberate attack on the European and other diplomatic representatives Wednesday: Israeli occupation soldiers open fire on a diplomatic delegation during their visit to Jenin refugee camp. pic.twitter.com/yI3MAyXyZZ May 21, 2025 This is probably the most pressure Israel has come under from its Western allies since Oct.7, 2023. As we previously reported, even Vice President JD Vance abruptly canceled a planned trip to Israel following the Netanyahu government's declaration that it would ramp up operations to conquer all of Gaza. The fresh Jenin incident is certainly not going to help Israel's international standing, amid its increased isolation on a world stage. It is also the case that many of the diplomats were from Global South countries which have already long opposed Israeli policy toward Palestinians. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 16:40
Masked NIH Employees Storm Out Of Meeting After Director Bhattacharya Questions Agency's Role In COVID-19 Origins Via American Greatness, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), sparked a mass walkout of NIH employees after suggesting that COVID-19 may have originated from a Wuhan lab and that NIH helped fund it. During a staff town hall meeting on Monday, Bhattacharya told NIH employees, “It’s possible that the pandemic was caused by research conducted by human beings, and it’s also possible that the NIH partly sponsored that research.” That comment prompted dozens of NIH employees to walk out of the meeting. NEW: NIH Director @DrJBhattacharya sparks mass walkout from NIH employees after suggesting COVID-19 may have originated from the Wuhan lab — and that NIH helped fund it. "It's possible that the pandemic was caused by research conducted by human beings, and it's also possible… pic.twitter.com/r74gv0iqcw May 20, 2025 As the NIH employees, some wearing masks, stormed out of the meeting, Bhattacharya called after them, “Nice to have free speech. You’re welcome, you guys.” Bhattacharya told the remaining employees, “If it’s true that we sponsored research that caused the pandemic — and if you look at polls of the American people, that’s what most people believe, and I’ve looked at the scientific evidence and I believe it — [then] what we have to do is make sure that we don’t engage in research that is any risk…to human populations.” The U.S. has faced growing scrutiny for the NIH’s participation in controversial virus manipulation experiments at the Wuhan Institute of Virology where the FBI and CIA both believe the COVID-19 virus originated. As the new director of NIH, Bhattacharya has also faced a $2.7 billion cut in funding from the federal government as well as the layoffs of more than 1,200 staff members. Bhattacharya has argued that the cuts are necessary since, “There’s been a line of research supported by the NIH that I don’t actually fundamentally believe is scientific and that is ideological in nature.” The new NIH director became well known during the pandemic for his support of the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for ending lockdowns for all but the most vulnerable. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 16:20
Schiff: Strong Dollar Or Exports? Pick One... Via SchiffGold.com, Last week, Peter joined Glenn Diesen for an interview on the post-trade deal economy. Peter takes on the myths surrounding Trump’s trade war with China, the real impact of tariffs on Americans, and where he sees the dollar heading as the world’s reserve currency. He explains why the perceived victories of protectionist trade policy are little more than marketing stunts, and warns about the risks of continued US borrowing and a potential dollar crisis. Peter opens with his signature candor, cutting through the narratives around Trump’s approach to China and the broader trade war. He stresses that Americans have been misled about the true causes of trade deficits and the effectiveness of tariffs: Well, first of all, Trump declared war and then surrendered and called it a victory. You know, the victory is that he saved us from ourselves, although it’s not a complete save. I don’t think we’re out of the woods. But, you know, Trump never had the cards to win the war in the first place. In the first place, I think he assessed the situation backwards. The whole trade war was misguided anyway, because the trade deficits are not the result of foreigners cheating us or ripping us off or bad trade deals. He explains how the president’s business acumen translated into a branding exercise in the White House, rather than substantive reform: I know he’s a great promoter. He’s a great marketer. That I’ll give him. I mean, he won the White House twice, right, so he sold the country on himself as the product. So he did a great job. And, you know, he’s a showman. He had The Apprentice, he had his hotels, his golf courses, you know, some of his other businesses. It’s all about branding, right? He brands the Trump brand. He puts the big Trump on everything, right?… I was curious – what are the lessons for China? Was anything achieved? Dispelling a common misconception, Peter clearly lays out the economic reality of tariffs—contrary to claims made by several politicians, these taxes are paid by Americans, not by foreign exporters: But again, the tariffs weren’t even on China. They were an inconvenience for Chinese companies. But the tariffs were on Americans. You know, the Chinese tariffs were on the Chinese. I mean, Trump can only tax Americans, and tariffs are an indirect tax that consumers pay when they buy products that are subject to the tariff. The actual tariff is paid by the importer, which is an American company. Now, if you import directly, right, if you decide to go on some Chinese site and order a product and they mail it directly to you, then, you know, when the package comes through customs, they add the tariff and you’ve got to pay it. The Chinese don’t pay it. The tariffs are paid by Americans. So it’s always been a lie. I pointed that out during the campaign. When it comes to reducing trade deficits, Peter argues that policy makers want to have their cake and eat it too— pushing for a strong dollar and lower trade deficits at the same time, despite the fact that these aims are fundamentally at odds: They want both. But of course, you can’t have both. The reason our trade deficits are so big is because the dollar is so overvalued. And so the only real way to make a big dent in the trade deficit is to have a much weaker dollar. I mean, that’ll do it. That’ll just make imports so expensive that Americans won’t be able to afford them, and so the imports will come down. And it will make our stuff a lot cheaper, whatever we got, and so we’ll export more of it. So a weaker dollar would do the trick, but of course the weaker dollar means much higher inflation in the US, which is why they don’t want a weak dollar. Wrapping up, Peter warns that the current trajectory is unsustainable. With continued deficits, reliance on foreign creditors, and a dollar whose status as the world’s reserve currency is under threat, a reckoning is likely around the corner: No, I think we’re going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. I mean, that’s just how it’s going to end. We’re going to keep on living beyond our means until we can’t do it anymore. We’re going to keep on borrowing until the lenders stop lending to us. And I think we’re already on that path. The question is, how long does it take to really completely de-dollarize, to kind of sever this lifeline that we have? I don’t know. But, I mean, the process has started. And at some point, the pace is going to accelerate. For more of Peter’s analysis on the US-China tariff deal, check out Peter’s latest podcast! Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 15:45
SBA Overhauling Biden-Era Loan Program Following High Default Rates Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The Small Business Administration (SBA) is overhauling a Biden-era lending initiative, citing its “alarmingly high rates” of loan default, the agency said in a May 19 statement. Signage thanking customers for shopping at a small business. Tim Mossholder/Unsplash.com The Community Advantage Small Business Lending Company program was designed to issue 7(a) loans to “underserved communities,” the SBA said. In the 7(a) loan program, the government offers loan guarantees to lenders, which allows the loan providers to advance credit to small businesses with special needs. The SBA blamed Community Advantage’s high default rate on lax oversight of the program. “Community Advantage generated a 7 percent default rate over the last 12 months—more than double that of the overall 7(a) loan portfolio,” it said. “Additionally, the portfolio is disproportionately stressed, with multiple lenders generating early problem loan rates above 30 percent.” A problem loan refers to any loan that cannot be recovered from borrowers quickly. The SBA issued a moratorium prohibiting the expansion of the Community Advantage loan program effective immediately. In addition, the agency also issued a new standard operating procedure that will mandate lenders taking part in the program to meet “prudent financial stability standards.” Existing lenders have to “dramatically increase” their capital reserves to continue participating in the program. SBA administrator Kelly Loeffler called Community Advantage an example of the weaponization of government programs to “tip the scale against deserving small businesses and toward preferred groups and political allies, even when it meant greater risk to American taxpayers.” Overhauling the Community Advantage program is one of the latest steps the SBA has taken concerning its 7(a) initiative. On April 22, the agency announced it was eliminating several policies that had resulted in compromise of the financial integrity of the 7(a) program. The previous administration had eliminated lender fees under 7(a). It also adopted underwriting standards that ended up allowing lenders to approve loans for underqualified borrowers. “Predictably, the program saw a massive rise in defaults and delinquencies—which the agency was unable to cover due to decreased fee income,” the SBA said. “By 2024, the 7(a) loan program had a negative cash flow of about $397 million—the first instance of negative cash flow in 13 years.” The SBA said it was restoring “robust rules” to end such “reckless lending” practices. Despite changes announced by the SBA, the Small Business Optimism Index fell by 1.6 points in April, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said in a May 13 statement. This was the second consecutive month the index was below its 51-year average. According to NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg, “uncertainty continues to be a major impediment for small-business owners in operating their business in April, affecting everything from hiring plans to investment decisions.” “While owners are still trying to fill a high number of current job openings, their outlook on business conditions is less supportive of future business investments,” he said. SBA Loan Boom While the SBA tightens policies regarding 7(a) loans, the issuance of these loans has skyrocketed under the Trump administration, the agency said in an April 17 statement. “Since Jan. 20, 2025, SBA has approved over 1,120 7(a) loans for manufacturers with a total loan volume of $677 million,” the agency said. “During the same period in 2021, SBA approved less than 650 7(a) loans for manufacturers with a total loan volume of $497 million. Nearly 99 percent of American manufacturers are considered to be small businesses.” In the first 90 days of the Trump administration, 7(a) loans for manufacturers were up 74 percent from the same period during the Biden administration. On March 10, the SBA announced a Made in America manufacturing initiative aimed at expanding access to capital for small businesses, cutting down $100 billion in regulations, and creating the necessary infrastructure to support the “blue-collar boom.” This month, a group of bipartisan lawmakers introduced the Made in America Manufacturing Finance Act, aimed at strengthening small businesses in the country, the office of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said in a May 1 statement. The bill seeks to raise the loan limit for 7(a) and 504 small-business manufacturing loans from the current $5 million to $10 million. The act “provides small-business owners the capital they need to expand, modernize, and compete,” said Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas). “We must continue to support and empower the job creators who keep our communities thriving. Together, we will continue driving the America First agenda forward and creating an environment where the success of Main Street is a priority.” Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 15:05
China Demands US Scrap Golden Dome Missile Defense System As It Will 'Turn Space Into A Battlefield' China has reacted fiercely to President Trump's newly unveiled plans to develop a cutting edge massive missile defense system to cover the entire territory of the United States, dubbed the "Golden Dome" - and which would utilize space. The plan is for space-based interceptors to be able to shoot down the most advanced missiles in the world. Trump touted that the hugely ambitious project would cost $175 billion and would be completed within three years; however, the Congressional Budget Office anticipates a price tag of $500 billion over 20 years. An allotted $25 billion for next year's budget will kick off the construction. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reacted Wednesday saying China is "gravely concerned" as the Golden Dome will "exacerbate the risk of turning outer space into a battlefield" and likely start arms race which will redefine the global order and international security system. Getty Images "The US, by putting itself first and being obsessed with pursuing absolute security violates the principal diminish the security for all undermines global strategic balance and stability," Mao said. "China is gravely concerned about this," he continued. "We urge the US to give up developing and deploying the global anti-missile system at an early date and take concrete actions to enhance strategic mutual trust between countries and safeguard global strategic stability." This is significant as it's a rare thing for Beijing to simply demand that Washington abandon an entire proposed defense system altogether. But Trump's words from the Oval on Tuesday express the very thing China (and Russia too no doubt) is worried about: "Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world and even if they are launched from space," Trump told reporters. The president had also said it was something prior President Reagan wanted "many years ago" in reference to the failed "Star Wars" program, which was long subject of headlines and become a famous non-fulfilled missile defense project. Some have criticized Trump's plans as but doubling down on the "failed blunder" that was the 1980s era "Star Wars" program. And again, it will certainly mean the race is on for China and Russia to get to space in terms of putting their own missile interceptors and systems, possibly even powerful lasers, into orbit. The Kremlin has also weighed in on Wednesday, given it too has reportedly made advances regarding space-based military capabilities: Golden Dome is America’s internal matter — Kremlin 'If the US believes there is a missile threat, then of course it will develop missile defense systems — as all capable nations do,' added Kremlin spox Peskov pic.twitter.com/BdT8OHUn9C May 21, 2025 "This highly offensive system violates the principle of peaceful use of outer space," the Chinese foreign ministry had also added in the fresh comments. But obviously with whole new branches of the US military such as Space Force, the United States (and other countries) envision that space is precisely where the future strategic edge lies. Without doubt, rivals are also worried about the 'edge' that Elon Musk's SpaceX gives the US, amid continued successes. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 14:45
FDA No Longer Recommends COVID Vaccine For Healthy Babies Via Headline USA, The U.S. government no longer recommends the COVID-19 vaccine for healthy babies thanks to new guidelines from the Trump administration, which said Tuesday it will limit approval for seasonal COVID-19 shots to seniors and others at high risk pending more data on everyone else. Top officials for the Food and Drug Administration laid out new standards for updated COVID shots, saying they’d continue to use a streamlined approach to make them available to adults 65 and older as well as children and younger adults with at least one high-risk health problem. But the FDA framework, published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, urges companies to conduct large, lengthy studies before tweaked vaccines can be approved for healthier people. Previously, federal policy recommended an annual COVID shot for all Americans six months and older. In the paper and a subsequent online webcast, the FDA’s top vaccine official said more than 100 million Americans still should qualify for what he termed a booster under the new guidance. Dr. Vinay Prasad described the new approach as a “reasonable compromise” that will allow vaccinations in high-risk groups to continue while generating new data about whether they still benefit healthier people. “For many Americans we simply do not know the answer as to whether or not they should be getting the seventh or eighth or ninth or tenth COVID-19 booster,” said Prasad, who joined the FDA earlier this month. He previously spent more than a decade in academia, frequently criticizing the FDA’s handling of drug and vaccine approvals. It’s unclear what the upcoming changes mean for people who may still want a fall COVID-19 shot but don’t clearly fit into one of the categories. Provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows more than 47,000 Americans died from COVID-related causes last year. The virus was the underlying cause for two-thirds of those and it was a contributing factor for the rest. Health experts say there are legitimate questions about how much everyone still benefits from yearly COVID vaccination or whether they should be recommended only for people at increased risk. In June, an influential panel of advisers to the CDC is set to debate which vaccines should be recommended to which groups. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 14:25
Waste Of The Day: Still No CA Rail Line Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Topline: California’s high-speed rail line has more than tripled in price from $40 billion to $128 billion, causing President Donald Trump to rescind $4 billion in federal funding and claim the project has “the worst overruns that there have ever been in the history of our country," The Washington Free Beacon quoted him as saying. It’s easy to see why. State audits reviewed by the Free Beacon found cash spent not on construction, but on graffiti removal, Politico subscriptions, diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives and more. Key facts: Construction on the rail line was supposed to begin in 2015 and finish in 2020. To date, no track has been laid, and there is no estimate for when the project will be completed. The deadline for the first portion of the track is 2033, but an inspector general report says that is unlikely. Meanwhile, the state’s High-Speed Rail Authority has spent $537 million on environmental services, according to the Free Beacon. The project’s environmental impacts statement took 14 years to write. One company, Westervelt Ecological Services, received $20 million to build new animal habitats, since many could be destroyed by the construction. The City of Fresno received $5 million for graffiti cleanup. Kadesh & Associates received almost $2 million for lobbying and “congressional advisory services.” CPS HR Consulting received almost $51,000 to run meetings for the rail authority’s DEI task force and train employees, the Free Beacon reported. Another $177,000 was spent on subscriptions to Politico Pro, a surprisingly common practice. The federal government spent $44 million on Politico subscriptions from 2017 to 2024, with the Pro service costing upwards of $3,000 per person. Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com. Supporting quote: California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a press conference, “I think we’ve been audited a hundred times there. At a certain point, you have audit fatigue. Audits for audits’ sake service no one … what people want is problems solved.” Had the rail line been completed in 2020 as planned, the audits probably would have ended. Background: The high-speed rail isn’t the only transportation project facing extreme delays. The County of Santa Clara announced last year that its planned rail station was 11 years behind schedule and $8 billion over budget. Rail cars purchased by the county for $173 million will now be used at other stations for a decade on Santa Clara’s dime. The federal government decided last year to give that project $5 billion in funding. At the time it was the second-largest federal transportation grant in history. Summary: California’s taxpayers are likely just as “fatigued” as their governor. It takes tremendous time and effort to stay up to date with all of the state’s cost overruns. The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 13:45
Yields Soar, Stocks Plunge After Ugly 20Y Auction Sees Biggest Tail Of 2025 While it wasn't quite as catastrophic as Japan's 20Y auction earlier this week which saw the biggest tail since 1987, moments ago the US also sold 20Y paper in what was one of the worst auctions for this tenor since its launch 5 years ago. Indeed, exactly 5 years since the first 20Year auction took place in May 2020, moments ago the US Treasury sold $16 billion in 20 Year paper in a dismal auction which sent yields spiking to session highs. The high yield was 5.047%, only the second 20Y auction to have a 5%+ yield, and only the second 20Y auction with a 5% coupon. The high yield was 24bps higher than April's 4.810% and also tailed then 5.035% When Issued by 1.2bps, the biggest tail since December. The bid to cover was also ugly, sliding to 2.46 from 2.63 in April, and the lowest since February. The internals were less jarring, with Indirects awarded 69.02%, down from 70.7% last month but above the 67.2 last month. And with Direct taking down 14.1%, up from 12.3% last month, Dealers were left holding 16.9%, just lower from 17.0% last month. Overall, it was an ugly (if hardly catastrophic) auction, certainly ugly enough to send yields to session highs of 4.58%, up 4bps from 4.54% before the auction, and the 30Y yield surged back above 5.00%... ... which in turn sparked an insta-rout in stocks, which are now tumbling to session lows. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 13:30
Watch: Trump Plays 'Kill The Boer' Clip In Front Of South Africa's Ramaphosa In The Oval Office, Destroys NBC Reporter Update (1300ET): Well, for those who were anticipating a Vance-Zelensky shitshow redux at today's meeting between US President Trump and South African President Ramaphosa... they were not disappointed. As the topic of white genocide cam up, Ramaphosa was quick to dispel the 'conspiracy'; but Trump very quickly told his aides to 'roll the tape' at which videos of black leaders in South Africa calling for the murder of whites (Boers) along with video of burial sites for whites killed in South Africa. Crushing. This is not only painful for the South African President but also for our mainstream media that desperately wants to cover up black-on-white violence in South Africa pic.twitter.com/e5NGJXmOb3 May 21, 2025 As the chants of 'kill the Boer' rang around The Oval Office, Ramaphosa grew very uncomfortable: Donald Trump playing video footage of South Africa’s black party singing “kill the Boer (Whites), kill the White farmer" in front of the South African president in the Oval Office. South African president is very uncomfortable. pic.twitter.com/gTe0MqV2Q8 May 21, 2025 Ramaphosa, thoughtfully and quietly responded claiming that "this is not government policy," adding that "our democracy allows for free expression" and reaffirmed that "our government is completely against" what President Trump was describing. As the clip (of burial sites and 100,000 people chanting for death to whites) ended and Trump turned to the reporter pool, NBC News reporter Peter Alexander shouted a question about the Qatari jet being offered to the US DoD, at which Trump exploded... WATCH: President Trump unloaded on NBC News correspondent Peter Alexander after a question about a Qatari jet that is expected to be given to the U.S. to be used as a new Air Force One. pic.twitter.com/Z2mSSLa8wC May 21, 2025 Ramaphosa diplomatically urged Trump to take this discussion offline. Developing... * * * Elon Musk will join President Donald Trump’s meeting with South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa at the White House later today. The Pretoria-born billionaire has been a staunch critic of Ramaphosa’s government amid the ongoing claims of genocide against the White minority in the nation of his birth. The timing of Ramaphosa's visit - just days after Trump accepted dozens of Afrikaner refugees - has sparked fears of an Oval Office clash reminiscent of the one Ukrainian president Zelensky faced earlier this year. Trump will be joined by Vice President JD Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, among others. South Africa’s government plans to offer Musk a workaround of local Black-ownership laws for his Starlink internet service to operate in the country, aiming to ease tensions with both the billionaire and Trump, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. Ramaphosa's office said the White House meeting, set to begin at 11:30 a.m. ET, will offer a "platform to reset the strategic relationship between the two countries." WATCH LIVE: President Trump welcomed South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to the White House, as tension between the two nations has ramped up since Trump returned to the Oval Office. https://t.co/epZqiTaTvM May 21, 2025 * * * As Brandon Smith detailed earlier via Alt-Market.us, some people might be wondering why a backwater nation like South Africa has become a flash point in the global debate over politics and culture. It’s really not that hard to understand once you recognize the core conflict, which is in part about racial division but also about the fundamental evils of the political left and socialism. South Africa represents a perfect petri dish, a window into the minds of progressive authoritarians. The country is near the end point of the natural socialist evolution – From “hopeful humanist endeavor” to the communist slave plantation that all socialist adventures inevitably become. A key pillar of leftist authoritarianism is an obsessive desire to prevent people from walking away. In other words, citizens are seen as property of the collective and property of the greater progressive experiment. When citizens try to leave, this is treated as a crime beyond reckoning. It’s a concept I’ve been writing about for many years now. Walking away from from the leftist plantation brings the entire edifice into question; it is the worst thing a citizen can do. Afrikaners that want to immigrate to the US under the refugee program put in place by the Trump Administration are being targeted by a malicious smear campaign. Recently, the SA parliament debated what should be done about these immigrants and also debated how to protect SA’s image in the world stage. Their narrative was broad, but it basically asserts that Afrikaners that talk openly about racial discrimination and race motivated murders of whites might be investigated under treason laws. By extension, Afrikaner refugees seeking to leave SA could be designated as threats to national security. Anyone warning about the growing movement for racial genocide of Afrikaners is a potential traitor and a threat to the country (Go to 118:00 for the discussion). Interestingly, the pursuit of investigations was announced just before South Africa’s Deputy President Paul Mashatile asked white farmers to “please stay”. Meanwhile, socialist and communist party leaders continue to call for a total land grab and reparations, swiping farms from Afrikaners and giving them to black citizens. As is typical with leftist governments the fallback is to deny all claims and evidence, then gaslight and demonize the people that speak out. The Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni made it clear that the State Security Agency (SSA) is on the alert for any disinformation campaigns, foreign meddling and treasonous acts. Concerns over the United States cropped up during the sitting and officials argued that US involvement in relocating refugees was a “violation of South Africa’s sovereignty”. This doesn’t make much sense, unless we keep in mind that Trump cut off foreign subsidies to South Africa because of the Afrikaner issue and this has placed their economy in a precarious position. The SA government seems to think they are entitled to American tax money. They’re not. Those asking Ntshavheni questions during the session used words including “racist” and “right-wing” as well as “lunatics” and “civil war.” The rhetoric is designed to stifle dissent and frighten Afrikaners into apathy. We have seen this same strategy in multiple leftist plantations around the world recently. From the UK to France to Germany and Romania, European governments have used censorship and door-to-door arrests of political opponents and people speaking out on issues like open borders and the invasion of violent third-world immigrants. White citizens are not allowed to criticize migrant polices, or they risk being punished. In the US, conservatives are very familiar with the treason narrative after years of the Biden Administration accusing MAGA of being a “threat to Democracy”. This is nothing new. However, South Africa’s case has escalated beyond persecution. Leftists aren’t just attacking Afrikaners as racists that “want Apartheid back”, they are also desperate to stop whites from leaving. You would think if Afrikaners were so reprehensible the leftists would WANT them to exit the country as quickly as possible. Instead, the establishment has engages in a vicious slander war to shut down their efforts to migrate to the US. A member and candidate of the ruling party (the ANC) wrote this week in the Africa Times: “South Africa’s Asset Forfeiture Unit (AFU) has sweeping powers under the Prevention of Organised Crime Act (POCA Act 121 of 1998) to seize property deemed to be the proceeds of crime. It has been used successfully against corrupt officials, criminal syndicates, and even bogus NGOs. But what of land obtained through historical fraud? Why has the AFU not moved decisively to investigate the origin of property titles, especially where the state was the original grantor or lessee? Let me be blunt: white South Africans should be compelled to demonstrate the lawful origin of title—not just via deeds, but through ethical justice and the question of how the land was first acquired. If such proof fails, that land must revert to the state and be redistributed under constitutional and equitable parameters…” He continues: “Let us not sugar-coat this: when South Africans—whether political parties or private citizens—go to the USA to solicit intervention or publicly declare persecution, they commit an act tantamount to treason. They bring shame not only upon the Republic, but spit in the face of those who died so they could vote…” “Where is the legal courage to prosecute this betrayal? The Intelligence Services Act, RICA, and Foreign Interference Bill must be invoked to investigate external political influence masquerading as refugee claims and foreign ‘investment pressure’…” And this showcases the underlying hypocrisy of race communists – The political left wants revenge for Apartheid against people that had nothing to do with Apartheid. They want to steal the land that those white farmers cultivated for generations using legal chicanery. The farmers must then “prove” their ownership was not obtained through racial injustice using a government-run struggle session (guilty until proven innocent). At the same time leftists also assert that white farmers that abandon their lands and leave for the US are traitors. The Afrikaners are trapped, and that’s just the way leftists like it. Social media is rife with woke activists calling Afrikaners racists and cowards for wanting to go to America. Activists in America have threatened violence against white refugees, claiming that they want to “bring Apartheid to the US”. Other critics try to dissuade potential refugees by asserting that when they enter the US they will be “at the bottom” and will not survive in the American economy. I believe that this campaign is at least partially coordinated. Keep in mind that Afrikaners know full well that they will be starting from scratch in the US, and they don’t care. Many of them are leaving behind property and a life they have built over decades. What I find refreshing about these migrants is how different they are in temperament from the millions of illegal migrants we have been dealing with from third world counties. Afrikaners say they want to contribute, to earn their keep in America and to assimilate. This is a completely different attitude from immigrants heralding from central and south America that arrogantly demand welfare subsidies, easy labor access and cry racism when they’re asked to assimilate or learn English. Furthermore, leftists never address the obvious question here – If there is no threat to white Afrikaners and they are actually living the high life without any fear, then why are they willing to leave everything they worked for to come to America? Listen to the deafening sound of crickets… Another question that leftists can’t seem to answer is why they care so much? Why are they so emotionally fragile over Afrikaners leaving for another country? What are they REALLY angry about? The reaction of South African politicians and leftists to this event tells us everything we need to know about their true motives – They hate the Afrikaners, but they also think they own the Afrikaners. They will do anything to prevent their racial equity Utopia from being exposed as a farce. South Africa’s denial of genocide is predicated on a logical fallacy – The idea that not all white people have been attacked or killed, therefore the current situation does not qualify as a genocide. Under Gregory H Stanton’s 10 Stages Of Genocide, written as a kind of alarm meter for impending tragedy, South Africa actually meets 8 out of 10 of the requirements for a genocidal scenario. Nearly all of the pieces are in place, including official group classification, discrimination, dehumanization, preparation and persecution. There’s the open calls to “kill the Boers” (Kill the white farmers) by leftist political parties, government complicity in property theft and redistribution, as well as thousands of racially motivated murders which the SA government has tried to hide, categorizing them as basic crimes rather than racial crimes. The African National Congress has implemented at least 142 race-based laws (similar to DEI policies in the US) designed to redistribute wealth, property and jobs away from the white population into the hands of the black population. And, the progressive authoritarians believe they have the perfect justification for the continuing oppression of whites – Because Apartheid existed 35 years ago in South Africa, this means that any brutality that happens to Afrikaners today is fair game. It’s the same argument that leftists use in Europe and the US: “White westerners were colonizers and colonization is evil, therefore, as repentance for their sins against the multicultural gods, whites must allow their societies to be deconstructed and submit to generations of abuse.” My question is, why would we do that? We can simply organize and tribalize if that’s the intention of the progressive movement. We can easily drop the hammer on them if necessary. The only reason progressives and socialists think they can railroad white citizens in South Africa is because they assume we will sit back and let them. Just so there’s no misunderstanding, everything happening in South Africa is a consequence of progressive governance. The race targeting of whites, the crumbling infrastructure, the 32% unemployment rate, the ongoing civil instability, etc. They’ve had 30 years to make things better and instead they made things worse. Conservatives have no political power and white citizens have no political power (their representation in government is next to nil). One might wonder why the government hasn’t swiped all the farm land from the Afrikaners already? The conundrum for progressive authoritarians is that they want to, but the vast majority of their domestic food production relies on the expertise of white farmers. They remember the starvation crisis that happened when Zimbabwe ethnically cleansed white farmers. They have to get rid of the Afrikaners slowly and replace them with black farmers over a period of years. Utility and political optics require that the SA government keep Afrikaner farmers trapped within the country so they can continue to produce until the government sees fit to eliminate them completely. I believe the “treason” narrative is part of this agenda, along with the general smear campaign. If even a handful of Afrikaners are able to come to the US and succeed this will encourage thousands more to leave SA. The country will then lose a large portion of its most productive citizens. The last vestiges of civil stability will disappear. South Africa will collapse. This is why some officials are begging Afrikaners to stay. This why the government is talking about national security concerns over a mere 59 immigrants leaving for America. Secretly, they know that an eventual mass exodus of white farmers is coming and it will crush their fraudulent system. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 13:05
Mercenary Firm Set To Oversee Gaza Aid For Israel Goes On LinkedIn Hiring Spree Via Middle East Eye The US private military contracting firm set to oversee Gaza aid distribution on Israel's behalf is actively hiring for positions on LinkedIn, according to job postings shared with Middle East Eye by current and former US officials. The firm, Safe Reach Solutions, or SRS, says it is actively looking for "Humanitarian Liaison Officers" who will "serve as vital connectors between our operational teams and the broader humanitarian community," according to one job description. Armed men stand guard at a checkpoint manned by US & Egyptian security at the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza, January 2025. via AFP Another position on offer a week ago but has since closed is for a “Team Deputy/Manager” to support “day-to-day management, planning, and mission execution”. A liaison officer position appears to be analytically focused. It says that hires will “advise on best practices for engaging with affected populations, local authorities, and community-based organizations” while monitoring developments that could impact “operational posture”. The team deputy position is geared towards recruits with a background in operations. One of the requirements is “field experience in the Middle East, especially in conflict-affected or post-crisis settings”. The positions want applicants with at least seven years of experience. They require applicants to be US citizens and say fluency in Arabic is preferred. Ironically, SRS is seeking people with UN experience, but the plan to take over aid distribution seeks to supplant the United Nations, which is already capable of delivering aid in Gaza. "These mid- to senior-career professionals will help bridge communication, coordination, and trust with NGOs, international agencies, and UN bodies operating in complex environments." Demand for the positions appears to be high. According to LinkedIn, more than 100 people applied for the humanitarian liaison officer position within two weeks. The team deputy position also drew comments from interested users directed to "Ali Ali," SRS’s recruiting consultant. “Hi Ali I worked in Gaza last summer with the US army. I was in charge of the humanitarian aid delivery through the trident pier. Please reach out to me at your best convenience to talk more,” a LinkedIn user wrote. The former Biden administration floated a costly pier project to bring aid into the Gaza Strip last year, but it was widely considered a failure. American private military contractors have already started arriving in Israel, according to photos shared on social media of khaki-clad and bearded men at Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv. MEE couldn't independently verify the photos. Who is Phil Reilly and his firm SRS? MEE couldn’t identify the recruiter, Ali Ali, who has 13 LinkedIn connections and no profile photo. However, SRS is headed by former CIA paramilitary officer Phil Reilly, who has served in Asia, Afghanistan and Iraq. Two former US officials told MEE that Reilly had won the trust of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and several Israeli businessmen close to him. His firm has long been the favourit to secure humanitarian aid into Gaza in a project that one Israeli businessman briefed on the plans said could amount to a contract worth "hundreds of millions of dollars". SRS was one of the private military contractors responsible for securing Gaza’s Netzarim Corridor during a short-lived truce. Fighting in Gaza briefly stopped in January but resumed in March when Israel unilaterally resumed attacking the enclave. According to a January Reuters report, US contractors were paid $1,100 a day to work in Gaza, with a $10,000 advance for veterans. SRS’s work during the first ceasefire was paid for mainly by the US and Gulf states, one US official told MEE. The private military contractors' weapons and supplies are likely to be supplied by the US. One US official told MEE that the salary range exceeds what the former US security firm Blackwater once paid veterans. SRS makes no secret of its connection to Gaza on LinkedIn. It posted a glowing article from ABC News in April, titled, “How a team of 'suburban dads' secured a key checkpoint in Gaza's 'death corridor'". UN says no aid distributed in Gaza SRS stepped up recruitment on LinkedIn just as the US was lobbying the UN and European states earlier in May to approve the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, to oversee aid distribution. The foundation would largely supplant the UN’s role in distributing Gaza aid. It says it plans to be active by the end of May. The SRS's job applications page reveals how Israel and the US are rapidly moving towards privatising and militarizing aid distribution in Gaza. Another position SRS is actively hiring for is an imagery systems technician, who can analyze full-motion video. Israel says it plans to create “hubs” to distribute aid. In the past, it has used checkpoints to separate Palestinian men and women. Earlier this month, the Israeli cabinet approved a plan that would require facial recognition technology to be applied to Palestinians before they receive any aid. It is seeking foreign funding for the plan. This is what the coastal Rashida street in Gaza looked like before and after the ongoing war. pic.twitter.com/yc2lZYa1n7 November 12, 2023 The operation has been slammed by aid groups across the aisle, and the UN says it will not take part in the foundation’s work. Israel announced on Monday that it would allow some humanitarian aid into the enclave. The UN said on Tuesday that Israel had allowed four trucks with baby food to enter the enclave, and a few dozen other trucks with flour, medicine, and nutrition supplies. However, the UN has not been able to distribute the supplies. "Israeli authorities are requiring us to offload supplies on the Palestinian side of Kerem Shalom crossing and reload them separately once they secure our team's access from inside the Gaza Strip,” UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said. "Today, one of our teams waited several hours for the Israeli green light to access the Kerem Shalom area and collect the nutrition supplies. Unfortunately, they were not able to bring those supplies into our warehouse," he said. Humanitarian experts say Gaza is on the brink of mass starvation. UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher said on Tuesday that 14,000 babies could die in the next 48 hours if aid did not reach them in time. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 12:45
US Senate Votes To Move Ahead With GENIUS Act; 'Legitimizing' Stablecoins For Global Institutional Adoption The GENIUS Act moved through a procedural vote on Monday (66-32), and has just passed its latest hurdle (69-31) allowing Senate Republican leaders to bring the legislation to the floor for debate and a final vote, as soon as this week A challenging amendment pricess awaits as the Senate bill, if passed, would need to be reconciled with a version approved by the House Financial Services Committee, and then both chambers of Congress must agree on a single bill before sending a final version to President Donald Trump for his signature. "There are still a lot of moving pieces," said Jennifer Schulp, director of financial regulation studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill’s key backers, said on May 15 that she thinks it’s a “fair target” to have the GENIUS Act passed by May 26 - Memorial Day in the US. * * * As CoinTelegraph's Zoltan Vardai detailed ahead of the vote, stablecoin adoption among institutions could surge as the United States Senate prepares to debate a key piece of legislation aimed at regulating the sector. After failing to gain support from key Democrats on May 8, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act passed the US Senate in a 66–32 procedural vote on May 20 and is now heading to a debate on the Senate floor. The bill seeks to set clear rules for stablecoin collateralization and mandate compliance with Anti-Money Laundering laws. “This act doesn’t just regulate stablecoins, it legitimizes them,” said Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs and Falcon Finance. “It sets clear rules, and with clarity comes confidence. That’s what institutions have been waiting for,” Grachev told Cointelegraph during the Chain Reaction daily X spaces show on May 20, adding: “Stablecoins aren’t a crypto experiment anymore. They’re a better form of money. Faster, simpler, and more transparent than fiat. It’s only a matter of time before they become the default.” Source: Cointelegraph Senate bill seen as path to unified digital system The GENIUS Act may be the “first step” toward establishing a “unified digital financial system which is borderless, programmable and efficient,” Grachev said, adding: “When the US moves on stablecoin policy, the world watches.” Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, a co-sponsor of the bill, also pointed to Memorial Day as a “fair target” for its potential passage. Grachev said regulatory clarity alone will not drive institutional adoption. Products offering stable and predictable yield will also be necessary. Falcon Finance is currently developing a synthetic yield-bearing dollar product designed for this market, he noted. Yield-bearing stablecoins issuance. Source: Pendle Yield-bearing stablecoins now represent 4.5% of the total stablecoin market after rising to $11 billion in total circulation, Cointelegraph reported on May 21. GENIUS Act regulatory gaps don’t address offshore stablecoin issuers Despite broad support for the GENIUS Act, some critics say the legislation does not go far enough. Vugar Usi Zade, the chief operating officer at Bitget exchange, told Cointelegraph that “the bill doesn’t fully address offshore stablecoin issuers like Tether, which continue to play an outsized role in global liquidity.” He added that US-based issuers will now face “steeper costs,” likely accelerating consolidation across the market and favoring well-resourced players that can meet the new thresholds. Still, Zade acknowledged that the legislation could bring greater “stability” to regulated offerings, depending on how it is ultimately worded and enforced. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 12:15
Russian Strike On Ukrainian Training Ground Results In Mass Casualties Despite ongoing US-backed efforts to get Russians and Ukrainians to the negotiating table again, days after last week's Istanbul talks, both warring sides have on Wednesday ramped up tit-for-tat assaults on each other's territory. Ukrainian drones have once again threatened the Moscow region, leading to the capital's four airports temporarily suspending nearly all flights for a period on Wednesday. Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports halted inbound and outbound flights, and Sheremetyevo suspended arrivals, the country's Federal Air Transport Agency confirmed, after air defense missile systems downed three inbound drones on Moscow. Russian MOD image: Russian ministry of defense video showed the training ground shortly before the missile strike. "Emergency services are working at the crash sites," an official Moscow city statement said. The Defense Ministry had earlier in the day said it destroyed 159 Ukrainian inbound drones overnight. Drones threatened several regions across southern Russia, as well as at least 40 UAVs spotted over Crimea. Ukraine on Wednesday announced that six of its servicemen were killed, and at least ten more were wounded when a missile attack struck a training camp in northeast Ukraine's Sumy region the day prior. However, Russia's defense ministry said the death toll was much higher, according to its intelligence estimates. It indicated the missile attack "killed up to 70 Ukrainian service members, including 20 instructors." Like many other such mass casualty events of late, it will likely be impossible to confirm which said has the accurate casualty numbers, given 'fog of war' and lack of journalistic access on the ground to many of these sites. The location was reportedly a shooting range, according to Ukraine's national guard, which further said the commander of the unit had been suspended. The strike happened during the light of day. Ukraine's military leadership has in some regions had a ban in place of large gatherings of troops or training which takes place out in the open, given the ever-present danger of missile and drone attacks from Russia. Reuters notes that "During more than three years of Russia's full-scale invasion, Moscow's forces have inflicted casualties in attacks on Ukrainian military educational institutions and various formal outdoor gatherings. This large-scale attack on the training ground comes at a time of increased domestic division and infighting within Ukraine, including apparently within the military command. For example, one high-ranking commander has within the past week reportedly resigned in disgust: Oleksandr Shyrshyn, battalion commander of the 47 Separate Mechanized Brigade, has submitted his resignation, sharply criticizing Ukraine’s military leadership for what he described as senseless orders and unnecessary casualties. "I have never received more stupid objectives than in the current direction," Shyrshyn wrote in a blunt Facebook post announcing his decision on May 16. "Someday I will tell you the details, but the stupid loss of people, trembling in front of a stupid generals, leads to nothing but failures." "I hope your children will also serve in the infantry and carry out your orders," he added. Russia's MoD released a grim video which strongly suggests true casualty numbers are actually very high after the attack: Media disseminate a video of an alleged Iskander missile strike on a Ukrainian military training ground in the Sumy region. They report the deaths of approximately 70 soldiers. This incident once again undermines trust in Ukraine’s military command, which not only organized… pic.twitter.com/9NllPV79Wi May 21, 2025 This is probably why Kiev authorities are taking such pains to investigate the Sumy training ground attack. The Zelensky government is trying to assure the population that it's war policy is not "senseless" - also at a time recruiters continue brutally rounding up fresh recruits, in some instances from off the streets or from inside cafes and restaurants. This war of attrition is becoming increasingly unpopular among Ukrainians, and is certainly being met with 'war weariness' among Western populations, whose tax dollars have been propping up the Ukrainian war machine. This is also why President Trump has been urging both sides to end the "bloodbath" and senseless killing. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 12:00
Bernie Sanders Says 'Quiet Part Out Loud' In Brutal Backstab Of Democratic Party Via VigilantFox.com, Bernie Sanders just said the quiet part out loud - and Andrew Schulz got it all on tape... In one of his most brutally honest interviews ever, Sanders admitted Democrats ARE a threat to democracy. He even pulled back the curtain on being robbed in 2016 and revealed his thoughts on a 2028 run. By the halfway mark of the 80-minute conversation, Sanders started unleashing truth bombs. He said the Democratic establishment sold out decades ago, trading working-class voters for wealthy donors and out-of-touch consultants. According to Sanders, that’s when everything started to fall apart. “The 70s, 60s, Democrats caught on that you could raise a lot of money from wealthy people,” Sanders explained. “And it gets back to campaign financing and all that stuff. So you got a Democratic establishment now, which is funded by wealthy people. You have consultants who are really way out of touch with reality, who make a whole lot of money in campaigns. And working class is ignored,” Sanders said. He added that Donald Trump succeeded where Democrats fell short because at least he pretended to care about the working class. Bernie Sanders sat down with podcaster Andrew Schulz for a revealing 80-minute conversation—and by the halfway mark, he started unleashing truth bombs. He said the Democratic establishment sold out decades ago, trading working-class voters for wealthy donors and out-of-touch… pic.twitter.com/yHy5fVnDov May 19, 2025 The conversation pivoted to Kamala Harris’s crushing defeat, where Bernie Sanders got visibly upset. He recalled how Kamala’s “bloody consultants” told her to campaign on: “Hey, everything’s good. We’re going to keep doing the exact same thing.” “That was what her bloody consultants told her to say. I begged them [to go with a different message]!” Sanders lamented. Andrew Schulz challenged Sanders, saying, “Why can’t she [Kamala] push back?”—to which he conceded, “You’re right. There’s no argument.” The conversation pivoted to Kamala Harris’s crushing defeat, where Bernie Sanders got visibly upset. He recalled how Kamala’s “bloody consultants” told her to campaign on: “Hey, everything’s good. We’re going to keep doing the exact same thing.” “That was what her bloody… pic.twitter.com/93ROvtTo19 May 19, 2025 Then came a jaw-dropper. Sanders was cornered by co-host Akaash Singh, who got him to admit that, YES, Democrats ARE a threat to Democracy. It happened when Schulz brought up how, over the past four election cycles, Democratic voters had little to no real say in who their nominee would be. He flat-out told Sanders that the DNC stole the 2016 primary from him. Sanders didn’t deny it. “In the world that I live in, you got a choice,” he replied—implying it was either let the Democrats rig the process or risk handing the White House to Trump. He even said his wife agrees that the nomination was stolen from him. Still, Sanders stood by the choice to support Hillary, calling both her and Trump “not a great choice”—but Hillary the lesser evil. That’s when Schulz’s co-host Akaash Singh jumped in and asked: “Could we not also say that if there hasn’t been a fair primary for the Democrats since 2008, are they not also a threat to democracy?” Sanders conceded. “Fair enough,” he said. “I’m not going to argue with that point.” Then came a jaw-dropper. Sanders was cornered by co-host Akaash Singh, who got him to admit that, YES, Democrats ARE a threat to Democracy. It happened when Schulz brought up how, over the past four election cycles, Democratic voters had little to no real say in who their… pic.twitter.com/jo0dEEpAr5 May 19, 2025 Sanders pulled back on the Democratic establishment, detailing how they despise “DIRTY” working-class people without a PhD. He recalled how thousands of energized, working-class supporters would show up to rallies—only to be met with hostility at official party events. Sanders painted the scene: “There’d be a few hundred people, mostly older, whiter, wealthier. And you saw the clash. The establishment did not want to open the door. They hated the idea that all these people whose hands were a little bit dirty, who didn’t have PhDs or weren’t wealthy…” “Imagine walking in—‘It’s my party, man. You ain’t getting in.’ Yes, we will fight you in the most ruthless ways that we can. And that’s the struggle.” He warned that Democrats either open the door—or go down with the Titanic. Sanders pulled back on the Democratic establishment, detailing how they despise “DIRTY” working-class people without a PhD. He recalled how thousands of energized, working-class supporters would show up to rallies—only to be met with hostility at official party events. Sanders… pic.twitter.com/EkVW2yb6m0 May 19, 2025 It didn’t stop there. Sanders went on to blame the Democratic establishment for destroying his 2016 run with a coordinated smear campaign. When asked who labeled his grassroots supporters as racists and misogynists, Sanders didn’t hesitate: “It was the Democratic establishment.” He admitted that the Democratic establishment worked hand-in-hand with the media to push this “myth” to destroy his campaign. “They were sitting there, we had a lot of young people, we had people of color, and you know, they create this kind of myth, with the help of the corporate media and all that stuff,” Sanders explained. Then it got worse. When Schulz pointed out that the same playbook was used against podcasters in 2024, Sanders agreed without skipping a beat: “Yeah, that’s what the liberal elite tries to do.” It didn’t stop there. Sanders went on to blame the Democratic establishment for destroying his 2016 run with a coordinated smear campaign. When asked who labeled his grassroots supporters as racists and misogynists, Sanders didn’t hesitate: “It was the Democratic establishment.”… pic.twitter.com/TqMB0xLiIN May 19, 2025 The conversation ended with a surprise. Bernie Sanders officially ruled out a 2028 presidential run, saying, “I think I’ve run my last race.” What came next was another shocker: he refused to endorse AOC. When asked if his “Oligarchy Tour” with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was part of a passing of the baton, Sanders shut it down immediately. “No. Don’t look at it like that,” adding, “It’s not a passing of the baton.” While he praised her efforts, he made his position clear: “I think Alexandria is great, but it’s NOT MY JOB to determine who the new leaders are.” The conversation ended with a surprise. Bernie Sanders officially ruled out a 2028 presidential run, saying, “I think I’ve run my last race.” What came next was another shocker: he refused to endorse AOC. When asked if his “Oligarchy Tour” with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was part… pic.twitter.com/F4Nt31VWlX May 19, 2025 See the full conversation below. This one is actually worth watching. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 11:25
Bitcoin Surges To New Record High, 'Trumping' Gold Since Election Bitcoin just surge to a new record high, $109,500, extending its recent post-pause recovery and up over 60% since President Trump was elected... BTC ETF inflows continue to build... ...and we suspect there is more to come, if the recent surge in global liquidity is anything to go by... The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures surged to a record high on May 20, raising questions about whether bearish positions are now at risk. Since Trump's Liberation Day (and now amid the 'One Big Beautiful Bill'), while gold has rallied solidly, Bitcoin appears to have been the preferred position for global uncertainty (after testing down to pre-election levels)... As Bitcoin Magazine's Oscar Zarraga Perez reports, a new report from River reveals that the United States dominates Bitcoin ownership globally, holding about 40% of all available Bitcoin. With 14.3% of its population owning Bitcoin, the U.S. outpaces Europe, Oceania, and Asia combined. Corporate America also leads in Bitcoin holdings. Thirty-two U.S. public companies, with a combined market cap of $1.26 trillion, hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset. These firms account for 94.8% of all Bitcoin owned by publicly traded companies worldwide. Major holders include Strategy with 569,000 BTC, U.S. mining companies with 96,000 BTC, and others with 68,000 BTC, totaling 733,000 BTC in the U.S., compared to 40,000 BTC held elsewhere. Since China’s ban on Bitcoin mining in 2021, the United States has become the global leader in Bitcoin mining, responsible for 38% of all new Bitcoin mined since then. The U.S. attracts miners thanks to its stable regulatory environment, access to deep and liquid capital markets, and abundant energy resources. These advantages have helped the U.S. increase its share of the global Bitcoin mining hashrate by over 500% since 2020, solidifying its position as the center of the industry. Bitcoin is also emerging as America’s preferred reserve asset, overtaking gold. Over 49.6 million Americans are in favor of holding Bitcoin, compared to 36.7 million who still prefer gold. The US government’s bitcoin advantage is greater than that of gold, where the US accounts for just 29.9% of the world’s central bank gold reserves. “Because there is a fixed supply of BTC, there is a strategic advantage to being among the first nations to create a strategic bitcoin reserve,” said the White House on March 7, 2025. Politically, support for Bitcoin is gaining significant momentum across the U.S. government. As of now, 59% of U.S. Senators and 66% of House Representatives openly support pro-Bitcoin policies, signaling a notable shift in political attitudes and greater acceptance of digital assets as key components of America’s economic future. The study highlights that Bitcoin ownership is highest among American males aged 31-35 and 41-45, with ownership rates ranging from 3% to 41% within these age groups. Politically, those identifying as “very liberal” or “neutral” are more likely to own Bitcoin than conservatives, though conservatives still make up a significant portion of holders. Finally, as we detailed yesterday, global sovereigns have been 'quietly' gathering exposure to the cryptocurrency with StanChart's Geoff Kendrick targeting $500k by the end of Trump's term in office for the largest cryptro currency. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 11:10
WTI Erases Israel-Iran Spike As Crude & Gasoline Stocks See Unexpected Build Oil prices are modestly higher ahead of this morning's official energy inventory and supply data, but have come dramatically back off the overnight spike highs driven by CNN headlines suggesting Israel is ready to strike Iranian nuclear enriuchment sites. “Either the impact on the oil market in case of an attack is assumed to be low, or the probability for an attack is assumed to be low,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. Wednesday’s gain “is not much when we are talking bombs in the Middle East major oil producing region.” Overnight also saw API report another sizable crude inventory build, while products drewdown (again)... API Crude +2.5mm Cushing -443k Gasoline -3.24mm Distillates -1.4mm DOE Crude +1.33mm Cushing -457k Gasoline +816k - biggest build since January Distillates +579k A smaller than expected crude build was offset by an unexpected build in Gasoline stocks according to the official DOE data... Source: Bloomberg Including a 843k barrel addition to SPR, total US crude stocks rose for the second week in a row... Source: Bloomberg US Crude production was up very modestly last week - hovering just below record highs - while the rig count continues to reject Trump's 'Drill, baby, drill' narrative... Source: Bloomberg Geopolitical concerns have for now overshadowed expectations of looser balances heading into the second half of the year, as OPEC and its allies bring back barrels to the market. Source: Bloomberg US shale oil output hasn’t peaked and can still expand, but not if prices are near $50 a barrel, ConocoPhillips’ chief executive officer said Tuesday. Meanwhile, Trump will not be best pleased if geopolitical tensions raise the price of oil and wreck his inflation-busting drill-baby-drill hopes of declining pump prices for the average American. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 10:39
Is Japan About To Hike Rates AND Restart Yield Curve Control? By Elwin de Groot and Michael Every of Rabobank Iran’s Khamenei said nuclear talks with US are unlikely to “lead to any outcome”… as US intel says Israel is preparing for a strike on Iran, seeing oil prices move higher. The Israeli press also says Iranian efforts to recruit Israeli agents have skyrocketed, Tehran trying to arrange high-profile assassinations inside Israel to mirror what Israel can do inside Iran, increasing the pressure further. That’s as President Trump is reportedly frustrated by Gaza war and wants PM Netanyahu to "wrap it up"; and the EU will review its association agreement with Israel, as their officials say diplomatic efforts stopped the EU from already halting the agreement; and the UK suspended trade talks with Jerusalem and attacked its ‘repellent’ extremism. Moreover, US Secretary of State Rubio said of Syria: “It is our assessment that, frankly, the transitional authority, given the challenges they’re facing, are maybe weeks —not many months— away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions, basically the country splitting up,” which is justification for the US and EU removing sanctions on it. In short, the entire energy-rich region is in flux. And so is much else. The IMF just asked the US to reduce its fiscal deficit as the Big Beautiful Bill will cut taxes and boost spending much further; and that’s as Reuters says the US ‘is preparing for a long war with China that could hit its bases and homeland’ and Trump is set to launch a "Golden Dome" missile defence system that will cost $175bn and almost certainly won’t be ready within his term of office, as promised. Trump reportedly also wants the UK to boost defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2029, so within the current parliament, increasing its fiscal deficit too. Against that backdrop, the downgrade of the US by Moody’s last Friday may have not come as a huge surprise and its debt was already trading “as if” it no longer belonged to the AAA bucket. Still, the re-rating of US debt is having potential effects in corners of the market. Managers of Hong Kong’s Mandatory Provident Fund system are flagging they may be forced to sell their Treasury holdings, since the pension fund only allows them to invest more than 10% of their assets in Treasuries if the US has a AAA or equivalent rating from an approved rating agency. Japan’s Rating & Investment Information is the only approved agency left out there having the US at the highest rating level. The rating agency keeps the US’ rating on stable outlook and has indicated that the situation “hasn’t significantly changed” since it made its assessment in February. But other scenarios could obviously play out. The US Congress is moving closer to endorsing Trump tax-cuts, leading to a significant increase in deficits and debt: with the IMF publicly calling for the US to reduce its deficit, such a scenario could lead to a gradual reduction in the share of Treasuries in various investment portfolios. Potentially, so could Trump considering an executive order to open US retirement plans to private equity, which would allow savers to access funds focused on “corporate buyouts and other high-octane deals” - so fewer US Treasuries(?) Meanwhile, whereas European/German long-term yields are trading at levels that are still some 30-40bp lower than in early March --when the EU’s and Germany’s defence and infrastructure spending plans startled markets-- those in the US and Japan are trading close to or even higher than the levels seen in early March. A 20y bond auction in Japan saw the lowest demand since 2012 and this pushed the 30y Japanese yield to its highest level since its 1999 debut. It certainly doesn’t help when your own prime minister acknowledges the country’s fiscal situation is “extremely poor, and worse than Greece’s” – even if their intent is to signal opposition to fresh tax cuts financed by additional debt issuance. Japan’s core inflation rate has come down from its peak levels of nearly 3% y/y in late-2023 to sit at just over 1.5%. That level, however, was only surpassed twice in the past thirty years: in 2014 and 1997. But in both instances the inflation spike was due to significant changes to the VAT system. If Japan has now entered (?) an episode of more ‘normal’ inflation, it could lead to more persistent upward pressures on (real) bond yields, which would raise interest costs. And, like in the US and Europe, the central bank has been dialling down its bond purchases, which, next to weaker demand for bonds, could also be contributing to higher liquidity-risk premiums. Japan’s public debt ratio (214% in 2024) is the highest among developed economies. The BOJ still holds a staggering share (around 50%) of public debt on its balance sheet, but even if the central bank does not slow down its purchases, the ‘net’ amount of debt would still be in the 100%+ range and comparable to that of – indeed – Greece’s, back in 2007. We want to avoid burning our fingers on the Japanese bond market – betting against it is commonly known as the widow-maker trade. But we ponder whether Japan could serve as an example for Europe or even, perhaps, the US – Japan, after all, has been the test case for many unconventional policies in recent (monetary) history. First off, the country may be better placed than both of these peers to tackle bond market turbulence, and the impact of higher yields on governments’ financing costs. Only 12% of JGBs is owned by foreign parties. So, arguably, the government could introduce some form of wealth tax to claw back part of interest payments on its bonds. Note the similarities with the suggestions for a so-called Mar-a-Lago accord, in which the US could try to lessen its debt servicing costs by forcing its allies to term out their debt holdings at a below-market return, or by imposing some form of tax on foreign holders of Treasuries. The major difference is that Japan’s solutions could be less controversial, since domestic tax policies would suffice to achieve the desired outcome. However, such a clawback only gets Japan so far. A wealth tax that offsets the higher debt servicing costs helps to contain the fiscal deficit and debt, but that does not provide the government with additional fiscal space to pursue its strategic goals, such as defence spending or reducing dependence on foreign inputs (note the similarities with the European situation here). Barring monetary support, more substantial tax increases or spending cuts in other areas would be required – and that could quickly erode support for the ruling party. Alternatively, the BOJ could resume its government bond purchases. But this would arguably lead to higher inflation and would probably weaken the currency – at a time when the JPY is already under increased scrutiny of the US administration. Japanese finance minister Kato yesterday said that "[…] exchange rates should be set by markets, and that excessive volatility in currency moves has an adverse economic and financial impact." Weakness in the yen could undermine any trade agreement between the US and Japan. So, to mitigate this impact of quantitative easing, could the BOJ simultaneously raise its policy rates in an attempt to achieve a currency-neutral policy mix of higher rates and de facto yield curve control? Meanwhile, in trade: China’s Xi stepped up calls for industrial self-sufficiency --so, no rebalancing then?-- and China said it will respond to US chip curbs; Malaysia is to press ahead with Huawei AI, testing the US position on that issue, as Nvidia’s CEO says US chip curbs on China are ‘a failure’; G7 countries are discussing tariffs on oversupplied, low-value Chinese products; the EU is considering a €2 de minimis charge on incoming Chinese packages; the EU is also expected to propose a quota for Russian gas, potentially offering companies a legal way to end their contracts; the US believes new sanctions on Russia may harm peace talks; India imposed restrictions targeting nearly 42% of inbound goods from Bangladesh; and Japan is taking a hardline position ahead of trade talks, demanding the US remove all reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on it. So, yes, much is in flux. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 10:20
Republicans Race to Finalize 'Big Beautiful Bill' As Johnson Seeks Memorial Day Deadline After weeks of turmoil and negotiations, House Republicans are inching closer to passing their sweeping domestic-policy package, anchored by a multi-trillion-dollar suite of tax cuts, as Speaker Mike Johnson races to finalize the legislation ahead of the Memorial Day recess. ouse Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., at the US Capitol on May 6. Graeme Sloan / Bloomberg via Getty Images file Following a personal visit to Capitol Hill on Tuesday by President Donald Trump and a flurry of behind-the-scenes bargaining, House GOP leaders believe they are nearing a deal with key factions. The House Rules Committee convened late into the night and early morning hours Wednesday, preparing the reconciliation bill for floor action. The committee had only just concluded its first panel - which included the chairs and ranking members of the Oversight, Budget, Armed Services, and Financial Services Committees - shortly before 4:30 a.m. (and then returning to their coffins for a nap?). The second panel will include top lawmakers from House Homeland Security, Judiciary, Natural Resources and Transportation and Infrastructure committees, while a third panel will include the chairs and ranking members from Agriculture, Energy and Commerce, Education and the Workforce & Ways and Means. In total, 537 amendments have been submitted to Rules - none yet from Democrats. Notably, GOP leadership has still not released its long-awaited manager’s amendment, which will incorporate many of the compromises Johnson negotiated to appease internal party divisions, including revisions to SALT, Medicaid work requirements, and clean-energy tax credits, Punchbowl News reports. Despite the complexity, Johnson is moving aggressively. He hopes to pass a rule and hold a full floor vote as soon as today - a schedule driven by his desire to meet the Memorial Day deadline, avoid attendance issues later in the week, and capitalize on rare momentum. The legislative sprint follows a dramatic shift in tone after Trump met Tuesday morning with warring GOP factions and urged unity. Several Republican holdouts publicly maintained opposition afterward, but six senior Republicans involved in the talks said many were privately seeking off-ramps - policy concessions that would let them support the bill while still claiming political victories. As Just the News notes, a final push will require some conservatives to make a leap of faith, like Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX), the chairman of the House Republican Study Committee, is taking. "Look as a conservative, I want to save as much money as I can, and we have pushed for that in the Republican Study Committee," he told the outlet on Tuesday. "But the President was pretty clear that we've worked five or six months straight on this, and it is time to get it done. "That doesn't mean that a guy like me doesn't want more. Yes, of course I do. But I also want to govern, which means you don't get 100% of everything you want every single time. You have to come back and do it again, and we will," he said during the John Solomon Reports podcast. Currently included in the Bill... Trump tax cuts; the largest in history with an average $5,000 decrease per household, and includes 'No Tax on Tips, Overtime or Social Security.' Immigration and Border Security: “Big, Beautiful Deportations”: funding for 1 million deportations per year Completion of the border wall Expansion of border personnel - including 10,000 new ICE agents, 5,000 customs officers & 3,000 Border Patrol agents - and $10,000 bonuses for front-line border workers Medicaid Reform: Remove 1.4 million illegal migrants from Medicaid Requires work for benefits starting January 2029 Spending Cuts and Fiscal Reform: $1.6 trillion in mandatory spending cuts - the largest deficit reduction in nearly 30 years - though the Penn Wharton Budget Model predicts deficits of nearly $3.3 trillion, even when accounting for "positive economic dynamics," while the Joint Committee on Taxation sees the House reconciliation bill increasing deficits by $3.8 trillion through 2034. The White House Council of Economic Advisers projected that the bill would boost GDP by 4.2% to 5.2% in the short run — a staggering level of growth that goes far beyond the mainstream consensus, via Axios. Repeals all of Biden’s “Green New Scam” subsidies & ends electric vehicle mandates Social and Cultural Measures: Ends taxpayer-funded sex reassignment procedures for minors Infrastructure and Modernization: Major overhaul of air traffic control systems Support for Families and Workers: Launch of "MAGA Accounts" for newborns (tax-advantaged savings) Increased child tax credit, strengthened paid family leave, and repeals IRS gig worker reporting rule (>$600 for Venmo/PayPal) Support for Farmers: $10 billion+ in tax cuts & eliminates death tax to aid generational farm transfers SALT One of the most contentious sticking points has been the state and local tax deduction, or SALT. Republicans from high-tax states have demanded relief from the $10,000 cap implemented in 2017. After intense pressure, Johnson offered a revised framework: a $40,000 cap for households earning up to $500,000 (down from a Tuesday proposal for income up to $751,000), with the cap and income threshold escalating 1% annually for ten years. While it falls short of SALT advocates’ hopes - particularly in addressing the so-called marriage penalty - it’s more than many conservatives are comfortable with. "This is purely a House play and designed to deal with the political challenge they have to get to 218," Senator John Thune (R-SD), a longtime opponent of expanding SALT, said in an interview Tuesday. "But, I mean, that seems like an incredibly generous offer." Thune alluded to possible markups in Senate committees once the legislation arrives from the House. But that’ll be dictated by the House’s timing and what senators think of the proposal. “I’m a regular order guy. I think you can improve the product,” Thune said. “But obviously, depending on what happens in the House and the timeline we have to work with, getting committees up and going and doing their thing takes a while - and how ready the product is for prime time… There are certain things the Senate wants to have its imprint on.” -Punchbowl Meanwhile, to placate the House Freedom Caucus, Johnson has proposed accelerating the phase-out of clean-energy tax credits enacted under President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Initially scheduled to begin after 2028, the new plan would start the phase-out in 2028, with a carveout for nuclear credits. Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) signaled progress Tuesday evening, backing off prior demands to slash Medicaid funding and saying talks were “moving in the right direction.” Still, not all conservatives are satisfied. Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) are expected to vote no. Others are calling for the party to return to a two-bill strategy - a position rejected months ago by both House and Senate GOP leadership. ROY just came out of confab with Johnson super sad. Says “we will see” if he still a “no” https://t.co/Xh3NuZULr5 May 21, 2025 Despite those tensions, GOP leaders are betting on Trump’s endorsement and the pressure of a looming deadline to push the bill through. “Things don’t get better when you hold it out there,” one senior Republican said. Another added bluntly: “It’s easier to break up with someone from a basement over email. Harder to do it in person, face-to-face.” Meanwhile, Democrats are preparing their messaging campaign. A memo from the House Majority Fund - a group aligned with Democratic leadership — advised lawmakers to focus on how the GOP legislation would raise prices for everyday Americans while benefiting the wealthy, rather than lean on technical deficit arguments or hyperbolic language. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) added fuel to the fire Tuesday night, estimating that the Republican bill would increase the deficit by $2.3 trillion over the next decade. The CBO projected automatic spending cuts to Medicare and other safety-net programs without congressional action and warned that the bill would boost the incomes of the wealthiest 10% of Americans while reducing incomes for the bottom 10%. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), ranking member on the Budget Committee, called the legislation "absolutely devastating" for working Americans. Protesters gathered outside the Capitol on Wednesday morning, denouncing proposed cuts to Medicaid. Despite the fierce opposition, House Republican leaders believe they are close. And if the manager’s amendment is released in time, Johnson may force the issue by calling a floor vote before lawmakers - including members of his own party - have had a full opportunity to digest the final terms. For Johnson, the choice is strategic: act quickly or risk watching weeks of work fall apart under the weight of delay. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 10:05
Congress To Seize Control Of AI: States Stripped Of Regulatory Power Via JonFleetwood.substack.com, Buried deep in Congress’s 1,116-page “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is a provision so sweeping, so dystopian, and so underreported that it’s hard to believe it was passed at all. Section 43201 of the bill, blandly titled the “Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology Modernization Initiative,” doesn’t just fund the federal government’s full-scale AI expansion—it removes every state’s right to regulate artificial intelligence for the next decade. Let that sink in: For the next ten years, no state in America—not even your state—will be allowed to create its own safeguards, protections, or liability standards for how AI is developed or deployed. “No State or political subdivision thereof may enforce any law or regulation regulating artificial intelligence models… during the 10-year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act.” - Sec. 43201(c)(1) of the bill This is not a theoretical threat. It’s a federal ban on local AI regulation—handing the reins to the very bureaucrats and corporate tech giants already embedding AI into military systems, healthcare, financial markets, education, and law enforcement. This section of the bill is a preemptive strike against state sovereignty. It neuters legislatures and governors from protecting their own citizens—just as powerful corporations and federal agencies rush to install AI systems into every layer of society. It’s not just overreach. It’s a federal power grab dressed as “modernization.” And President Trump is now marching on Capitol Hill to personally demand the bill’s passage—pushing the very legislation that would shield his $500 billion Stargate AI surveillance grid from any state-level resistance. The bill—developed by the House Budget Committee, which passed the legislation yesterday—still needs to be voted on in the House and Senate before it hits Trump’s desk, so if you want your senators and representatives to vote no on it, you can contact them here and tell them why. The House is expected to vote on the One Big Beautiful Bill by the end of this week. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 09:50
GLAAD Claims Free Speech Surge On Social Media Undermines LGBT Safety One of the most detrimental self-sabotage efforts of the woke movement was their rabid push to control public speech online. In the case of gay and trans issues, any criticism no matter how factual or logical was met with Orwellian oversight. For most major social media apps, simply engaging in debate with LGBT activists could mean your account would be flagged and silenced for days or weeks at a time. Refusing to use a trans person's preferred pronouns could result in a permanent ban. Such policies were established hand-in-hand with federal government efforts to codify LGBT language and make gay and trans people a privileged class protected from any and all scrutiny. Governments and social media platforms partnered up to institute speech controls that might not be possible otherwise. Under the guise of "protecting LGBT people" from discrimination, the door to arbitrary censorship was opened. This is why in the US there is no such thing as a legal definition for "hate speech". Classifying any speech as "hate speech" would represent a clear violation of the 1st Amendment. Yes, you can "yell fire" in a crowded theater, and yes you can call people whatever pejoratives you want to call them. Hurt feelings are irrelevant to the law, and this is a good thing. GLAAD, the gay and trans lobby group, thinks otherwise. The organization issued an “alarming” Social Media Safety Index report this month, which found that, after significant rollbacks in protected speech, social media platforms are overwhelmingly "failing to protect" LGBTQ people. The only major app that did not receive an "F" grade on LGBT safety was TikTok, which got a D+. GLAAD has now changed it's grading system due to the lack of platforms meeting their standards. For 2025, the platforms were rated numerically, with TikTok at 56/100; Facebook: 45/100; Instagram: 45/100; YouTube: 41/100; Threads: 40/100; and X the lowest at 30/100. “At a time when real-world violence and harassment against LGBTQ people is on the rise, social media companies are profiting from the flames of anti-LGBTQ hate instead of ensuring the basic safety of LGBTQ users,” GLAAD President and CEO Sarah Kate Ellis said in a statement shared with TheWrap. “These low scores should terrify anyone who cares about creating safer, more inclusive online spaces,” she added. Taking into account the fact that woke activists consider mean words to be the same as an act of violence, it's difficult to take any warnings from GLAAD seriously. The report lists 14 indicators which address a range of issues affecting LGBTQ people online, including data privacy, moderation transparency, training of content moderators, and workforce diversity. The factor that most interests GLAAD, however, is online censorship. Jenni Olson, senior director of social media at GLAAD, argues that “The terrible rollbacks from Meta and YouTube are the most important news this year,” referring to both company’s recent decisions to allow previously prohibited hate speech, such as references to LGBTQ people being “abnormal” and “mentally ill” as well as the use of pejorative terms such as “tranny” and “transgenderism.” “It is especially horrible that YouTube removed gender identity from its list of protected characteristics - and yet is continuing to state that the policy hasn’t changed, when it very clearly has …This is just unprecedented for a major platform. It is extremely concerning for a company to remove a protected characteristic group from a hate speech policy,” Olson said. In other words, online speech policies are going back to normal and GLAAD doesn't like it. Frankly the amount of social division and strife caused over protecting the fragile feelings of a tiny percentage of the total population isn't worth it. LGBT groups are nothing more than a convenient minority vehicle which the establishment tried to use to inject thought control into the public consciousness. The societal damage done has been immense and will take years to reverse. The popular anger over LGBT issues was created by the very activists crying about safety. If they had left people alone instead of trying to force their ideological language on the masses, there would be no animosity today. They earned public suspicion by trying to silence public discussion. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 09:30
Trump Says He Had To Run Again After "Rigged Election" To "Shove It Up Their Ass" Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, President Trump said Monday that he was relentlessly determined to regain the Presidency after the “rigged” 2020 election. Trump made the remarks during a Kennedy Center Board dinner in the White House’s State Dining Room Monday. “They rigged the election,” the president said, adding “And then I said, you know what I’ll do? I’ll run again, and I’ll shove it up their ass.” 🚨TRUMP: "They rigged the election. I said 'You know what I'll do? I'll run again and I'll shove it up their ass."pic.twitter.com/V0hDh8Csgf May 20, 2025 He continued, “And that’s what I did, and all of a sudden, I then realized— I said you know what, I got the Olympics, I got the World Cup, and I got the 250th.” He is referring to the LA Olympics in 2028, the football (soccer if you’re American) World Cup next year, and the upcoming 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. He noted that during his first term he played a major role in winning bids for the sporting events. “Look at the way this works out,” Trump declared, explaining “If they would have left us alone and wouldn’t have cheated on the election, and wouldn’t have rigged it, I would have been retired right now,” Trump further noted. “I would have been happily doing something else, and instead, they have me for four more years. Can you believe it?” Trump added. Greatest President in US History. I’ll chisel that man on Mt Rushmore myself. May 20, 2025 LMAO BASED. This is exactly why they're terrified of him 🤣 he takes their games and turns them right back on them. Absolute chad energy. May 20, 2025 They poked the bear and then found out. May 20, 2025 This is my President 🇺🇸 May 20, 2025 Exactly what the man did too🔥🔥💯 May 20, 2025 * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 09:10
Target Reports Soft Earnings, Slashes Outlook As Consumer Spending Weakens Mega retailer Target slashed its annual sales forecast after reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly results, citing trade tariffs, boycotts, and slumping consumer confidence. A broader turnaround plan to re-establish the retailer as a leading discount department store appears to be faltering, with Goldman's top consumer analyst taking a bearish stance on the stock. In the quarter that ended May 3, Target reported a 1Q25 adjusted EPS of $1.30, missing both Goldman and Refinitiv consensus estimates of $1.71 and $1.64, respectively. Comparable sales declined 3.8%, versus consensus expectations of a 1.0% decline, driven by a 2.4% drop in traffic and a 1.4% decrease in average tickets. Consumers visibly spent less per visit, and Target CEO Brian Cornell expressed his dissatisfaction with the quarter's results to analysts in an earnings call: "I want to be clear that we're not satisfied with these results. We've got to drive traffic back into our stores and visits to our site." By channel, store comps fell 5.7%, while e-commerce comps rose 4.7%. This was supported by over 35% year-over-year growth in same-day delivery via Target Circle 360 and continued strength in drive-up services. Key seasonal events such as Valentine's Day and Easter led to outperformance for stores; however, performance during non-holiday periods was weaker. Target executives warned that the lingering issues that impacted sales in the first quarter would roll into the current quarter, which is one reason the discount retailer slashed its full-year earnings and sales guidance. The retailer expects a low-single-digit decline in sales for the fiscal year ending next January, with prior guidance forecasting sales growth around 1% for the year. Here's more color from Goldman on Target's dismal outlook: TGT lowered FY25 sales guidance and now expects a LSD decline (vs. +1% prior), compared to GS/consensus of +0.2%/+0.3%. The company also lowered adj. EPS guidance by 14% at the midpoint to $7.00-9.00 (vs. $8.80-9.80 prior), compared to GS/consensus at $8.61/$8.46. TGT did not provide guidance for FY25 SSS or operating margin rate. Goldman's consumer specialist Scott Feiler provided clients with his first take on Target's earnings: "This felt like it had among the lowest expectations reports into the event. Despite most expecting a very weak print, we had seen some covers the last few days, mainly from those cognizant of the bar. The print did come in about as bad (but not necessarily worse) vs expected. At 11.7x the mid-point of the newly lowered EPS guide, the stock will be a fascinating one to watch. If TJX is a buyer on dips (as indicated above), we think most investors will look to short TGT on positioning driven pops, until they can show an infection in comp sales (-3.8% comps vs most all peers in pretty solidly positive territory)." Goldman has a "Neutral" rating on Target with a 12-month price target of $101. In a separate note, JPMorgan analysts Christopher Horvers and his team described the retailer's earnings results as "soft." Horvers noted that EPS missed JPM and consensus estimates due to "higher markdown rates and digital fulfillment supply chain costs, partially offset by lower shrink." JPM is rated "Neutral" on Target. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Jennifer Bartashus and Jibril Lawal said, "Weaker-than-expected 1Q performance make full-year cuts to sales and adjusted EPS a prudent move against an uncertain backdrop." Bartashus and Lawal noted that the retailer's product mix makes it more vulnerable to tariffs than other big-box retailers. "Target's implementation of a new multiyear acceleration office underscores the need for a broader turnaround plan to re- establish the brand's cachet with customers," the analysts said. In April, we asked, "Are Democrats Unintentionally Sabotaging Retailer Target?"... After all, Democratic-leaning respondents have expressed to the UMich Survey their views of an economic apocalypse ahead. To note, Morning Consult's data recently showed who exactly shops at Target: "Walmart is more popular among Republicans, while more Democrats see Target in a favorable light." So again, we ask: "Are Democrats Unintentionally Sabotaging Retailer Target?"... Target shares are down more than 6% in premarket trading. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 09:00
Futures Slide As 30Y Yield Rises Above 5%, Oil Jumps On Iran War Fears US equity futures and global markets are weaker with both tech and small caps underperforming as yields rise (10Y TSY at 4.53% last) and the curve bear steepens. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.5% with sentiment hit by a CNN report that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. That sent oil higher, while haven assets outperformed; Nasdaq futures also drop 0.6%, with Mag7 names mostly lower and Semis/Cyclicals underperforming. In Europe major markets are mostly lower with the UK leading and France lagging. UK inflation his a 15-month high. Treasury yields ticked above key psychological levels, with the 30-year above 5%. The dollar lost ground against all major currencies pushing the DXY index back below 100 as the yen continues its relentless ascent while Japanese long bonds crater. Commodities are higher this morning, benefiting from the lower dollar and led higher by energy and precious metals with the former higher on elevated geopolitical risk. Oil climbed about 0.7% on a report that Israel could be gearing up for a possible strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is another light macro data day with no macro news but with multiple Fed speakers. Earnings from big retailers will be in focus for clues on the impact of tariffs. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet +0.5%, Tesla +0.5%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%, Nvidia -0.7%, Amazon -0.8%, Meta -0.6%). Canada Goose rose 9% after the coat manufacturer posted fourth-quarter revenue that beat estimates. Lowe’s (LOW) climbs 2% after comparable sales beat expectations during the latest quarter as shoppers maintained home spending despite weakening consumer sentiment and economic turbulence. Moderna (MRNA) slips 1.3% after the biotechnology company voluntarily withdrew its pending biologics license application for its flu, Covid combination vaccine for adults 50 years and older. Target (TGT) slumped 4% after the beleaguered company cut its FY sales outlook, and now sees full year sales declining by single digits after previously seeing growth NU Holdings (NU) falls 2.6% after saying said Chief Operating Officer Youssef Lahrech is stepping down, adding to a string of management changes in the upper ranks of Latin America’s standout financial technology firm. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slips 3% after the cybersecurity provider posted quarterly results and gave an outlook. Analysts note subscription and support revenue slightly missed expectations and JPMorgan reduced its price target. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) declines 4% after the video-game publisher announced plans to sell $1 billion of new stock to investors. The offering range is $225 to $232 per share, according to people familiar with the matter. Toll Brothers (TOL) gains 3% after the company reaffirmed its expectations for home sales in its full fiscal year, citing resilience among its affluent buyers. UnitedHealth (UNH) tumbles 5% after the Guardian reported that the health insurer secretly paid nursing homes to reduce hospital transfers for ailing residents. VF Corp. (VFC) falls 12% after the owner of apparel and footwear brands forecast a wider-than-expected adjusted operating loss from continuing operations for the first quarter. Target, Lowe’s, Marshalls-owner TJX and Timberland maker VF Corp are all set to report this morning. Any comments on post-tariff pricing adjustments will be key after Walmart warned of price hikes last month, with Trump retorting that the retailer should “eat the tariffs.” Overnight, republicans said they reached an agreement on state and local tax deductions for President Donald Trump’s economic bill after negotiating through the night. While investors have rushed back into stocks on hopes that the US is easing off its tariff threats, there are questions about whether gains can be sustained as concerns about fiscal deficits and mounting debt drive bond yields higher. “There’s a lot of optimism that has been discounted in markets and it seems that many investors believe that the trade war is over,” said Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy for RBC Wealth Management in the British Isles and Asia. “However, the underlying issues which have been at the root of tensions for decades have not been tackled.” Equity trading volumes were light across the board. The UK and European Union extended the bidding window for debt auctions on Wednesday in response to Bloomberg LP technical issues. Globally, the yield-curve for government debt steepened across most markets as worries mount around swelling debt and deficits. The rate for 10-year US Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.53%, while the yield for gilts with a similar tenure rose six basis points to 4.76%. “The direction of travel is obviously higher,” Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “At the core of it, fiscal is in question, and it’s not just a US problem, it’s a global problem.” Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its call on US stocks and Treasuries on expectations that interest-rate cuts will support bonds and boost company earnings. The S&P 500 Index will reach 6,500 by the second quarter of 2026, they wrote. They also see the dollar continuing to weaken as the US’s economic growth premium relative to peers fades. “The US dollar has of course lost its luster as the undisputed safe reserve asset,” said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. In Europe the Stoxx 600 is on course to snap a four-day win streak as it falls 0.6%. Retail, auto, and travel shares are leading declines while utilities outperform as the only sector up in Europe. major markets are mostly lower with the UK leading and France lagging. UK inflation his a 15-month high. Here are the biggest European movers: Genfit shares climb as much as 7.6% after the French biotech company said it will receive a €26.5 million milestone payment from Ipsen. SSE rises as much as 1.9% after the UK utility company cut its five-year spending plan by £3 billion as projects slow amid planning delays, while also releasing full-year results. Electrolux Professional rallies as much as 8.5% to its highest level since March 26 after Handelsbanken upgraded its view on the Swedish professional appliances maker to buy from hold, projecting the company will gain market share in the US. Infineon shares rise as much as 1.8% after the chipmaker said it’s collaborating with Nvidia on a new power delivery infrastructure for AI data centers. Orion gains as much as 4.9%, hitting a record high after the Finnish drug company says its partner MSD has expanded the development program for opevesostat to now include women’s cancers. Ypsomed shares rise as much as 6.8% to the highest in more than three months after the drug packaging company forecast sales growth of about 20% for the 2026 fiscal year. Pharma Mar shares rise as much as 10%, extending their winning streak to a sixth session, after the Spanish drugmaker said it filed a European marketing application for a combination of drugs used in treating a form of lung cancer. Marks & Spencer shares fall as much as 3.4% after the fallout from a cyberattack overshadowed a robust earnings report. Currys shares fall as much as 0.8% following today’s trading update, despite the electronics retailer once again boosting its expectations for full-year pretax profit. SoftwareOne shares fall as much as 5.9% after the Swiss IT service provider posted soft revenues and flagged headwinds from Microsoft’s lower incentives will continue for the rest of the year. Hornbach Holding shares fall as much as 14%, the most in five months, after the German home improvement firm posted an outlook that analysts at Baader called muted, with adjusted Ebit guidance well below expectations due to salary increases. Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 31% to the lowest intraday since Oct. 28 after the oil and gas company said flow testing for its Megrez-1 well in Alaska has completed. JD Sports shares slide as much as 13%, the most since January, after the British sports retailer said like-for-like sales fell 2% in its fiscal 1Q, driven by a decline in North America. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained amid continued optimism over the possibility for trade deals between the US and various nations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6% to the highest level since Oct. 7. TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent were among the biggest boosts to the regional benchmark. Key gauges in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan advanced at least 1% each, with equities also trading higher in Hong Kong, Australia and India. The MSCI Asian stock gauge is about 1% away from surpassing its late-September high. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.5% to the lowest level since May 6. The greenback dropped against all Group-of-10 peers with Norway’s krone leading gains as oil prices jump. In rates, treasuries bear steepened with 30-year yields up 6bps to 5.02% and 10-year yields up 5bps to 4.53%. Gilts underperformied Treasuries and German peers across the curve, led by the long end of the curve. UK 10-year yields rise ~7 bps to 4.77% after a hotter-than-expected CPI reading in April prompted traders to pare bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England. Regional European bond yields are higher. In commodities, oil climbed about 0.7% with Brent above $66 a barrel after CNN reported that new US intelligence suggests Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. It wasn’t clear that Israeli leaders had made a final decision to carry out the strikes, the report added. Gold also gained in haven demand, rising $22 to around $3,312/oz.Bitcoin falls 0.6% toward $106,000. Looking at today's calendar, No US economic data are scheduled, while Fed speaker slate includes Barkin and Bowman at 12:15pm Market Snapshot S&P 500 mini -0.6% Nasdaq 100 mini -0.7% Russell 2000 mini -0.9% Stoxx Europe 600 -0.4% DAX -0.3%, CAC 40 -0.6% 10-year Treasury yield +5 basis points at 4.54% VIX +0.7 points at 18.79 Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1220.15 euro +0.3% at $1.1316 WTI crude +1.7% at $63.11/barrel Top Overnight News Republicans in the House are increasingly confident they will be able to strike a reconciliation deal and pass it this week before the Memorial Day recess. Politico US House Rules panel is "still meeting on the bill after working overnight and no sign of amendment making final changes": Bloomberg Trump’s administration is debating an executive order that could open the nearly $9tn US retirement market to private capital groups focused on corporate takeovers, property, and other high octane deals. FT Nvidia’s Jensen Huang has condemned US export controls designed to limit China’s access to AI chips as a “failure” that spurred Chinese rivals to accelerate development of their own products. FT White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Vought said the Moody's downgrade timing was trying to jeopardize the ability to get the budget bill done, although he thinks the budget bill will pass this week and is optimistic. Trump said the Golden Dome defence shield will include space-based interceptors and should be operational by the end of his term, while he added that Canada said they want to be part of it and said the total cost is about USD 175bln. US-China tech tensions are flaring again, with Beijing threatening legal action against anyone enforcing Washington’s restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co.’s chips, casting a shadow over a recent trade truce and efforts to sustain dialogue. BBG Temporary trade truce between US/ China has sparked a knee jerk bounce across China’s ports and factory floors. In the week beginning May 12, when the US and China agreed to sharply reduce tariffs for 90 days, bookings on freighters headed from China to US shores more than doubled from the prior week to about 228,000 TEUs, or twenty-foot equivalent units. BBG Japan’s exports to the U.S. fell in April for the first time in four months as the effects of higher tariffs started to kick in. Exports to the U.S. dropped 1.8% in April from a year earlier, reflecting weaker demand for cars and other machinery including chip-making machines. WSJ Japan’s lead tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, heads to the US on Friday for a third round of talks with his Trump administration counterparts, with a fourth visit this month being considered. Nikkei UK inflation runs hot in Apr, w/the headline CPI coming in at +1.2% (vs. the Street +1%), core CPI +3.8% (vs. the Street +3.6%), and services CPI +5.4% (vs. the Street +4.8%). This print sent the pound to a three-year high against the dollar and short-dated gilts to seven-week lows. Traders now see just one more 25-bp cut from the BOE by year end after CPI surged more than expected to 3.5% in April. WSJ, BBG Oil climbed on a CNN report that US intelligence suggests Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. BBG Morgan Stanley mid-year outlook: turns Overweight on US equities and US Treasuries; expects USD to continue to weaken - expects EUR/USD at 1.25 and USD/JPY at 130 by Q2 2026 Trade/Tariffs China’s Commerce Ministry said US measures on China's advanced chips are typical of unilateral bullying and protectionism, while it added that US chip measures seriously undermine the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain and supply chain. MOFCOM also stated that the US abuses export controls to contain and suppress China, violating international law and basic norms. Furthermore, it said China urges the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices and to abide by international economic and trade rules and respect other countries' rights to scientific and technological development. Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday and a fourth visit to the US this month is also a possibility, according to Nikkei. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias as the region mostly shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St but with the gains capped in the absence of any major fresh macro drivers and tier-1 data releases. ASX 200 was led by strength in utilities and the commodity-related stocks with gold miners lifted by recent gains in the precious metal. Nikkei 225 faded its opening gains with headwinds from a firmer currency and after mixed Japanese trade data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the predominantly upbeat mood in the region but with the upside limited in the mainland as frictions lingered after China renewed its criticism against the US for its chip controls and urged the US to immediately correct its erroneous practices. Top Asian News South Korea's government will prepare support measures for the biopharmaceutical sector and will prepare additional measures for the auto industry if needed. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened mostly lower across the board, but sentiment in Europe has picked up a little this morning to display a more mixed picture. European sectors are mostly lower and hold a slight defensive bias. Utilities takes the top spot, benefiting from its defensive status but with sentiment also boosted after post-earning strength in SSE (+1%). Retail is found at the foot of the pile, with JD Sports (-5%) responsible for much of this after the Co. reported a 2% decline in Q1 Sales. Top European News ECB's de Guindos says equity valuations are high and credit spreads are out of sync with risk. Says the US downgrade was discounted by markets. EZ bond yields have decoupled from US, and spreads are contained. Markets are complacent but that can change. ECB FSR: Rapidly shifting geopolitical environment could test euro area financial stability. UK Deputy PM Rayner sent a secret memo to UK Chancellor Reeves, pushing for a new tax raid on savers, according to The Telegraph. The memo proposed eight tax increases including reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and changing dividend taxes. FX DXY has extended its losing streak into a third session with incremental macro drivers on the light side as the data calendar remains quiet and Fed speak proves to be non-incremental given the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. On the trade front, the deal flow appears to have slowed down and there is unlikely to be much in the way of breakthroughs at the G7 finance ministers meeting this week. Elsewhere, focus is on the fiscal front as Trump attempts to push his "big beautiful bill" through Congress. DXY has slipped onto a 99.0 handle with a session trough at 99.42. EUR/USD has extended its rally for the week with a current session peak at 1.1352 vs. an opening price on Monday at 1.1172. This week has been a quiet one in terms of Eurozone newsflow with ECB speak not shifting the dial on market pricing with a June cut near-enough fully priced. For now though, EUR remains underpinned by its appeal of being a liquid alternative to the USD, currently holding around 1.1325. JPY is capitalising on the broadly softer USD with USD/JPY slipping as low as 143.57 overnight before returning to a 144 handle. Focus surrounding Japan remains on the trade front with reporting in the Nikkei noting that Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa, who is the country’s top tariff negotiator, is to visit the US for the third time on Friday. GBP is steady vs. the USD following a choppy reaction to UK CPI metrics. The series saw an across-the-board hotter-than-expected outturn with Y/Y CPI rising to 3.5% from 2.6% (exp. 3.3%) and the all-important services component rose to 5.4% from 4.7% (exp. 4.8%). This elicited a surge in Cable to a multi-year high at 1.3468. However, the move ran out of steam given the negative connotations of a stagflationary outlook in the UK. Mildly diverging fortunes for the antipodeans with AUD firmer vs. the USD and NZD steady. Fresh macro drivers are lacking for both with the payback in AUD likely a by-product of Tuesday's RBA-induced losses. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1937 vs exp. 7.2133 (Prev. 7.1931). Fixed Income USTs started the day on the backfoot, down to a 109-25 base and a few ticks beneath the 109-28+ low from Tuesday. If the move continues, then the 109-20 WTD base is next. The bearish bias has been moderate so far, ahead of an expected floor reading of the US tax/spending bill on Thursday, a 20yr auction this evening in addition to Fed’s Barkin & Bowman. Bunds are lower marginally underperforming USTs at this moment in time though not to quite the same degree as Gilts, see below. Updates thus far include the ECB FSR, which highlighted that a shifting geopolitical environment could test EZ financial stability. ECB's de Guindos also provided some remarks, but little of note. Into the German 2035 Bund auction the downside has increased taking Bunds to a fresh trough at 129.60 - a decent outing, but had little impact on German paper. Gilts are the underperformer this morning with downside in excess of 60 ticks at worst. Driven lower by the above, the morning’s hot inflation series and possibly some concession into supply factoring. To recap the data, Services came in at 5.4% Y/Y, eclipsing the BoE’s 5.0% view, and the headline at 3.5% Y/Y, surpassing the BoE’s average forecast for Q2 of 3.4%. In reaction to this, Gilts gapped lower by 41 ticks at the open and have since slipped another 26 to a 90.46 trough, notching a fresh WTD low in the process and lifting the 10yr yield to 4.77%, its highest since early April when 4.79% printed. Germany sells EUR 3.052bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.50% 2035 Bund: b/c 2.4x (prev. 1.4x), average yield 2.66% (prev. 2.47%) & retention 23.7% (prev. 23.80%) UK's DMO says due to ongoing issues with the Bloomberg terminal, the bidding window for today's 2031 auction has been extended; expects closing time of the auction to be 11:30BST. Commodities Crude futures are overall boosted following a CNN report that new intelligence suggested Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, although it added that it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision. Oil prices waned off their best levels during APAC trade amid the cautious risk tone across markets. Aside from that, complex-specific newsflow has been light, WTI resides in a USD 62.20-64.19/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.96-66.63/bbl range. Spot gold is kept afloat by dollar weakness and amid the ongoing backdrop of trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,285.34-3,320.84/oz range at the time of writing after topping yesterday's USD 3,295.79/oz high and now eyeing the 12th May peak at USD 3,325.39/oz. Base metals overall trade mixed whilst copper futures extends on the prior day's intraday rebound after gaining on a softer dollar and as Asian bourses mostly shrugged off the weak handover from US peers. 3M LME copper trades in a USD 9,528.70-9,599.00/t range at the time of writing. Iraq's Oil Minister says lower oil prices are on the back of rising crude stocks; hopes oil prices will improve in H2'25. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillates -1.4mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -0.5mln), Cushing -0.4mln. Geopolitics: Middle East New intelligence suggested that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to US officials cited by CNN although the report added it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision. Iranian Foreign Minister says "We are considering whether or not to participate in the next round of negotiations with US. We are still examining whether productive talks can take place on that date", via Iran Nuances. UK is reportedly considering sanctions against Israeli far-right ministers, via FT citing sources; discussions are over an asset ban and travel freeze on Finance Minister Smotrich and Security Minister Ben-Gvir. Geopolitics: India-Pakistan Pakistani army says "Indian terror proxies" used by India to attack a school bus in southwest Pakistan. Geopolitics: Ukraine Ukraine's Finance Minister Marchenko said G7 ministers will discuss all necessary and critical issues related to Ukraine's reconstruction, while he will reiterate the need for stronger sanctions on Russia. US President Trump said he is not worried about reports of a Russian military buildup along Finland. US Event Calendar 7:00 am: May 16 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.1%, prior 1.1% Central Banks Speakers 12:15 pm: Fed’s Barkin, Bowman Participate in Fed Listens DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap US fiscal matters have dominated again over the last 24 hours, as investors continue to grapple with what the long-term unsustainable nature of US debt means in the near term. After a complete round trip back to pre-downgrade levels on Monday, yesterday saw the 30yr Treasury yield (+6.7bps) moving up to 4.97%, whilst the S&P 500 (-0.39%) ended a run of 6 consecutive gains. And notably, those moves weren’t just confined to the US, with Japan’s long-end yields surging after weak demand at an auction, pushing their 30yr yield (+12.1bps) up to 3.082% - a near 25-year high. They are another +8.9bps higher this morning. Interestingly, in the flash poll I asked yesterday on how the US deficit issue would ultimately resolve itself, a majority (54%) reckoned that politicians would be forced to rein it in over the next decade due to some sort of crisis or economic event. Another 26% expected some sort of monetisation via fresh QE, whilst 15% felt the market would continue to take large deficits in its stride. 5% of you were even more optimistic, thinking that strong economic growth in the year ahead will prevent deficits hitting those levels that have been widely forecast. When it comes to the near term, all eyes are now on the tax bill that the Trump administration are seeking to pass through Congress, as the final agreement will go a long way to determining how big the US deficit becomes in the years ahead. There wasn’t a huge amount of newsflow on that yesterday, but President Trump did go to Capitol Hill as he sought to persuade Republicans to pass the bill. Currently, one of the issues is that Republicans from higher-tax states want a boost in the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, and several have threatened to vote against a bill that doesn’t have a big enough increase in the SALT cap. For instance, Mike Lawler of New York said that “As it stands right now, I do not support the bill”. Another concern is about the debt impact, such as from Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Trump reiterated that he was opposed to deeper cuts to Medicaid that have been advocated by some of the fiscal hawkish Republicans. The overarching issue is that Republicans have an incredibly narrow majority in the House of Representatives. The chamber is currently split 220-213 to the Republicans, meaning it would only take four votes against (along with the Democrats) to sink any bill. In terms of the market reaction, it was a more difficult day for US assets, with the S&P 500 (-0.39%) finally losing ground after 6 consecutive gains. Once again, it was tech stocks that lagged, with the Magnificent 7 (-0.62%) underperforming the S&P for a 4th consecutive session. Tesla (+0.51%) was the only of the Mag-7 to advance as Musk said he is committed to leading the company for the next five years. The equity decline was also pretty broad with two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents lower on the day, though there were gains from the more defensive sectors, including utilities (+0.29%) and consumer staples (+0.27%). Meanwhile for Treasuries, longer-dated maturities struggled amidst the fiscal situation, with the 10yr yield (+3.9bps) up to 4.49%, whilst the 30yr yield (+6.7bps) rose to 4.97% as discussed at the top. But there was a stronger performance at the front-end, where the 2yr Treasury yield (-0.5bps) posted a modest decline to 3.97%. At the same time, near-term Fed rate cut expectations continued to dwindle, with pricing of a rate cut by July falling to only 30%, the lowest this has been since the last cut in December. St Louis Fed President Musalem said that “tariffs are likely to dampen economic activity and lead to some further softening of the labor market” but also noted the potential risk posed by elevated inflation expectations. This morning in Asia, 10 and 30yr USTs are another couple of basis points higher with the 30yr hovering just below 5%. Away from the US debt concerns, European markets saw a clear risk-on move yesterday, with equities posting fresh gains across the continent. In particular, the DAX (+0.42%) hit a fresh all-time high, taking its YTD gains up to +20.73%. Meanwhile, the STOXX 600 (+0.73%) closed in on its own record from early March, ending the day just -1.62% beneath its peak. Elsewhere, that risk-on tone was also evident in sovereign bond markets, where spreads continued to tighten. For instance, the Italian 10yr spread over bunds closed beneath 100bps for the first time since September 2021, at just 99.6bps. And the French spread over bunds also tightened to 65.7bps, the tightest since July, shortly after the legislative election. In absolute terms, that came as yields on 10yr bunds were up +1.8bps, whereas those on OATs (+0.3bps) and BTPs (+0.4bps) saw a smaller increase. Here in the UK, gilts underperformed their counterparts elsewhere in Europe, with 10yr yields up +3.9bps on the day. That followed comments from BoE chief economist Pill, who said that he saw the recent pace of BoE rate cuts as “too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability we face.” This came as Pill explained his dissenting vote at the latest meeting earlier this month, where he had been one of two MPC members to vote to keep Bank Rate unchanged, while the majority favoured a 25bp cut. Separately in Canada, their 10yr yields surged by +12.6bps on the day, which came after their latest CPI print was stronger than expected. Although headline inflation eased to +1.7% in April (vs. +1.6% expected), both of the core inflation measures unexpectedly rose, with CPI-median at +3.2% (vs. +2.9% expected), and CPI-trim at +3.1% (vs. +2.8% expected). In turn, that led investors to dial back expectations for a rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting, which is now only seen as a 28% probability, down from 68% previously. Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning but oil prices have surged by around +1.9% (+3.5% earlier in the session), driven by reports from CNN that US intelligence believe that Israel is preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The report suggests no final decision has been made. Equities are mostly shrugging this off with the KOSPI (+0.96%) leading the way followed by the CSI (+0.68%), the Hang Seng (+0.54%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.39%). Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.56%) is continuing its upward trend, approaching a three-month high after the dovish stance taken by the RBA in yesterday's meeting. Conversely, the Nikkei (-0.24%) is slightly lower after the yield rises and data that showed an unexpected trade deficit in April (more below). S&P 500 (-0.32%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.35%) futures are edging lower. Turning back to Japan, export growth (+2.0% y/y) continued to decelerate for the second consecutive month in April as the country grappled with the fallout from tariffs imposed by the US. Imports shrank -2.2% from a year ago, less than the Bloomberg estimates of a -4.2% decline and compared to a downwardly revised increase of +1.8% the previous month. As a result, Japan’s trade balance unexpectedly swung into a deficit of -¥115.8 billion (v/s +¥215.3 billion expected) after two months in the black. Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK CPI release for April. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Centeno, Lane and Escriva, and the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman. Finally, earnings releases include TJX and Target Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 08:27
UnitedHealth Shares Drop After Report Reveals Secret Bonus Payments To Nursing Homes For Cutting Hospital Transfers UnitedHealth Group shares dropped as much as 7.5% in premarket trading Wednesday in New York, following a Guardian investigation that revealed the health insurer shelled out "Premium Dividend" and "Shared Savings" bonuses to nursing homes that reduced hospital transfers for sick residents. The Guardian's investigation is based on thousands of confidential corporate and patient records obtained through sources, public records requests, and court filings, along with interviews with nearly two dozen current and former UnitedHealth and nursing home employees, as well as two whistleblower declarations submitted to Congress. The report offers a new snapshot into UnitedHealth's daily operations at nearly 2,000 nursing homes across the country, where it manages Medicare Advantage coverage for more than 55,000 long-term residents. Here are some of the key findings from the report: UnitedHealth stationed in-house medical teams at nearly 2,000 nursing homes, incentivizing them to lower hospitalizations through financial rewards like "Premium Dividend" and "Shared Savings" payments tied to hospitalization rates. Internal records show UnitedHealth monitored nursing homes using "admits per thousand (APK)" metrics and set "budgets" for hospitalizations. Facilities with high APKs were denied bonuses. In multiple documented cases, patients were denied urgent hospital care, leading to serious harm, including permanent brain damage. Whistleblowers say these incidents were hidden or minimized. Nurse practitioners were pressured to push "Do Not Resuscitate" (DNR) orders, even when patients had previously expressed the desire for life-saving treatments. UnitedHealth also incentivized increased enrollment in its Institutional Special Needs Plans by offering large payments to nursing homes, which in some cases leaked confidential patient data to help sales teams directly solicit families—often bypassing consent rules. The Guardian noted: In several cases identified by the Guardian, nursing home residents who needed immediate hospital care under the program failed to receive it, after interventions from UnitedHealth staffers. At least one lived with permanent brain damage following his delayed transfer, according to a confidential nursing home incident log, recordings and photo evidence. A current UnitedHealth nurse practitioner, who recently submitted a congressional complaint regarding the nursing home program, stated: "No one is truly investigating when a patient suffers harm. Absolutely no one. "These incidents are hidden, downplayed and minimized. The sense is: 'Well, they're medically frail, and no one lives for ever.'" A former national UnitedHealth executive said: "APK drove everything. You gain profitability by denying care, and when profitability suffers for the shareholders, that's when people get crazy and do things that are not appropriate." Two current and three former UnitedHealth nurse practitioners said that UnitedHealth managers pressured them to persuade Medicare Advantage members to change their "code status" to DNR, even when patients had clearly expressed a desire to receive all available life-saving treatments. UnitedHealth responded to the Guardian's report, rejecting claims that its employees have prevented hospital transfers. The Guardian's report comes at a time of crisis for UnitedHealth. Last week, shares logged the worst weekly crash since 1998 after a Wall Street Journal report said the Department of Justice has been conducting a criminal investigation into the company's Medicare practices. In addition, UnitedHealth suspended its 2025 outlook, and its CEO abruptly exited. In the premarket session, shares fell as much as 7.5% after the Guardian's report. Only one Wall Street analyst—CFRA's Paige Meyer—had a "Sell" rating on UnitedHealth earlier this year, out of roughly 30 tracked by Bloomberg. Wall Street, it seems, was overly bullish on the insurer—now shares have imploded. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 08:15
Elon Musk Confirms June Launch For Robotaxis In Austin Tesla stock is up about 2% mid-day after a mid-day interview between David Faber and Elon Musk. The Tesla CEO told CNBC that Tesla will launch robotaxis in Austin by the end of June, starting with about 10 vehicles and expanding if all goes smoothly. “It’s prudent for us to start with a small number, confirm that things are going well and then scale it up,” Musk said. The vehicles, Model Ys using an upcoming version of FSD called FSD Unsupervised, will operate without human drivers and be geofenced within Austin. Tesla staff will monitor them remotely, according to CNBC. “We’ll be watching what the cars are doing very carefully and as confidence grows, less of that will be needed,” he told Faber. Musk aims to expand the service to Los Angeles and San Francisco next. He emphasized Tesla's camera-based, AI-driven approach over pricier lidar-based systems used by competitors like Waymo, which now runs 250,000 paid driverless trips weekly. “What will actually work best for the road system is artificial intelligence, digital neural nets and cameras,” Musk said. CNBC writes that responding to Tesla's 20% drop in Q1 auto revenue, Musk blamed factory retooling for a new Model Y but said demand is now rebounding. “We can’t make cars if the factories are retooling. But we’ve seen a major rebound in demand at this point,” he told Faber. “When you buy a product, how much do you care about the political views of the CEO or even care what they are?” When asked about BYD and competition, Musk told Faber he pays little attention to competitors and only to what Tesla is working on internally. Earlier this morning during the Qatar Economic Forum, Musk confirmed he’ll lead Tesla for the next five years: “Yes, no doubt about that at all.” The interview came about a month after Tesla's brutal Q1 earnings, where the company missed Wall Street's expectations and warned about increased uncertainty through the first half of 2025. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 08:05
Great News DIYers: Home Depot CFO Reveals No Tariff Price Hikes Great news for DIYers and contractors alike: Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail told CNBC this morning that the retailer has no plans to raise prices despite tariffs. This puts Home Depot at odds with Walmart, which is set to hike prices later this month. While Home Depot reaffirmed its full-year sales outlook, it delivered mixed results for the first quarter. "Because of our scale, the great partnerships we have with our suppliers and productivity that we continue to drive in our business, we intend to generally maintain our current pricing levels across our portfolio," CFO McPhail told CNBC in an interview. McPhail said that more than half of what is on store shelves nationwide comes from suppliers in the U.S. He said the retailer has been pushing to diversify sourcing in recent years. He said by this time next year, not a single country will have 10% of its purchases. The CFO's comments offer weekend warriors—installing gardens, building chicken coops, and catching up on yard work—a big sigh of relief this spring as the summer season approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. Home Depot's pricing strategy is at odds with Walmart's, which announced last week that the tariff war threatens its low-price model. Walmart CFO John David Rainey warned that price hikes were imminent: "If you've not already seen it, it will happen in May and then it will become more pronounced." On the earnings front, Home Depot forecasts 2.8% total sales growth and 1% comparable sales growth for the year, assuming current tariff levels remain in place (30% on Chinese goods, 10% on others). The outlook, which came in better than feared (according to several Wall Street analysts), suggests consumer spending remains resilient, even as University of Michigan survey respondents, particularly among Democrats, continue to express incoming apocalyptic inflation. First-quarter earnings missed Wall Street expectations for the first time since May 2020, though sales beat estimates. Here's what Home Depot reported via Goldman analyst Kate McShane's first take: HD reported adj. 1Q25 EPS of $3.56, below the GS estimate of $3.60 and consensus (Refinitiv) of $3.59. Net sales increased 9.4% y/y to $39.9bn (vs. GS/consensus of $39.1bn/$39.3bn) as comparable sales decreased -0.3% y/y, consistent with the GS estimate of -0.3% and below consensus of -0.1%. Foreign exchange rates negatively impacted total company comparable sales by ~70 bps. During the quarter, HD experienced increases in both average ticket (+0.03% y/y) decelerating from +0.3% in 4Q, and transactions (+2.1% y/y) decelerating from +7.6% in Q4. Comparable sales in the U.S. increased +0.2% y/y. HD's operating margin decreased -86 bps y/y to 13.2% (vs. GS/consensus of 13.5%/13.4%) as gross margin decreased -37 bps y/y to 33.8% while total operating expenses as a % of sales increased +49 bps y/y to 20.5%. Management reaffirmed their FY25 guidance including sales growth of approximately 2.8% (vs. consensus of +2.9%), a 1.0% increase in comparable sales (vs. consensus of +1.1%), gross margin of 33.4% (vs. consensus of 33.4%), adj. operating margin of 13.4% (vs. consensus of 13.3%), and adj. EPS growth of approximately -2.0% (vs. consensus of +0.0%). HD also plans to open ~13 new stores and expect for capital expenditures to be approximately 2.5% of total sales. Analysis Average ticket increased slightly +0.03% y/y to $90.71 from $90.68 in the prior year, while total customer transactions increased +2.1% y/y (decelerating from +7.6% in 4Q). Management noted that they saw better engagement in smaller projects and their Spring events. Gross margin decreased -37 bps y/y to 33.8%, slightly below GS/consensus estimates of 33.9%. Total operating expenses increased +12.1% y/y to $8.2bn, while total operating expenses as a % of sales increased +49 bps y/y to 20.5%. Adjusted operating margin decreased -86 bps y/y to 13.2%, below the GS/consensus estimates of 13.5%/13.4%, and adjusted operating profit of $5.3bn compares to $5.1bn in the prior year (+2.7%). Inventory increased +14.9% y/y (vs. +11.8% in 4Q) which we note compares to the sales increase of 9.4%. The company's payable ratio of 57.0% increased from 56.0% in the prior year. Here are Home Depot's actual 1Q25 results versus estimates via Goldman. McShane maintained a "Buy" rating on the home improvement retailer and a 12-month price target of $394. Additional commentary from Wall Street (list courtesy of Bloomberg): TD Cowen (buy), Max Rakhlenko "Key positives included better-than-feared 1Q comps at (0.3%) which were only slightly below Street, and management reiterated the FY guide," Rakhlenko writes in a note That said, adjusted EPS missed both consensus estimate, and his projection, due to lower EBIT margin, with misses in both gross margin and SG&A Key topics on call will include tariffs/HD's ability to navigate supply chains and pass through price increases, housing dynamics, Pro/Big Ticket engagement, near-term trends Vital Knowledge, Adam Crisafulli This HD report falls into the 'better than feared' bucket based on the decent U.S. comp number and reaffirmed guidance," writes Crisafulli in a note Stifel (hold), W. Andrew Carter Carter views the 1Q report as "neutral," noting that guidance requires an "acceleration in comparable sales growth" for the rest of the year, though he's seeing "signs of resilience and potential strength for home improvement" Says commentary on the conference call will be "key for adding context around the Liberation Day shock" Expects "muted overall response" for the stock and looks for commentary on call to gain "comfort" in the reiterated guidance Truist (buy), Scot Ciccarelli "1Q appears to be a middle of the fairway shot for Home Depot, despite a weather-impacted February, constantly changing rhetoric out of DC and stubbornly-high mortgage rates," Ciccarelli writes in a note U.S. comparable sales were "just below" his estimate, but "just above" most recent competitor revisions HD's lack of comments on tariffs seems to suggest that management views the "ultimate impact as neutral-ish" and that they are focused on how the core business is trending now; expects "plenty of questions" on tariffs during the call Still need to see how steep the future growth curve will be, but positives include HD's 2nd straight positive U.S. comp., Truist credit card data suggests that sales accelerated as weather improved, SRS acquisition will "incrementally benefit" comp. sales by mid-2Q, and Cicarelli expects further sales/earnings gains as the year progresses Citi (buy), Steven Zaccone Expects results to be viewed "favorably" and says HD's results/guidance put "greater focus" on Lowe's earnings report Wednesday, where expectations are lower for comp. sales results/guidance change and tariffs may be more challenging to manage given smaller scale Key topics for call will be: details on comparable sales cadence; ticket vs. transaction contribution to comps for the rest of the year; expected gross margin puts/takes from tariff impact and subsequent price increases; SRS performance; demand elasticity for Pro vs. DIY consumers Bloomberg Intelligence, Drew Reading "Reaffirmed full-year guidance and indication that it's well- positioned to navigate tariffs reflect an increasingly diversified supply chain," Reading writes Within 12 months, HD expects that no country will account for more than 10% of its sourcing Challenges include a weak housing market and an "increasingly cautious" consumer who is putting off big-ticket discretionary projects The takeaway: As Walmart's low-price model comes under pressure, consumers will likely catch on to the shift—and increasingly turn to Home Depot for their DIY needs, especially with stable pricing and strong product availability with its supply chain mainly sourced from the U.S. and diversified worldwide. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 07:45
The 'Big, Beautiful Bill' Will "Massively" Increase Near-Term Deficits, Add $5 Trillion In Debt Late last week, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) released its preliminary score of the House Ways and Means Committee mark-up of the large budget reconciliation bill working its way through Congress, also known as Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" (BBB). And while the BBB is inching to passing through Congress - despite holdouts still remaining especially over the size of the SALT deduction - here is a snapshot of what is in the Bill, and how it will affect the US in the coming decade. We start with a look at the fiscal policy focus of the BBB: Republicans' slim majority and their use of the budget reconciliation process are key influences on the composition of the fiscal policy-related legislation. That said, extending the expiring provisions of the TCJA should have sufficient support within the party for enactment. Additional tax cuts, such as a domestic manufacturing credit and not taxing tips, will be facilitated by the political viability of sufficient “pay-fors”. This will likely include watered-down versions of proposed IRA tax credit phase-outs and cuts to social spending programs. So how does one quantify the impact of the BBB: as a reminder, the Ways and Means Committee is responsible for writing the main tax code portion of the bill. Relative to the CBO’s January 2025 baseline, the JCT estimated the mark up to increase deficits by $3.8trn over the next 10 years, with most of the deficit increase ($2.2trn) occurring over the next five years. Indeed, breaking the bill down even further, of the $1.9trn of total savings identified in the mark up, the majority ($1.2trn) is realized over the back half of the 10-year budget window. It is also notable that $915bn of savings stem from capping individual deductions for state and local taxes – a figure that will come down in the final legislation given the pushback from many Republicans in high tax states. As a reminder, under current law, upon expiry of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the cap on state on local deductions would go away leading to lower tax revenues (all else equal). In addition, ~$560bn of savings are generated through terminations or earlier phasing out of clean energy-related tax credits and another $116bn from “remedies against unfair foreign taxes” – both measures highly dependent on projections with very wide error bands and/or yet to be defined enforcement mechanisms. As DB's Brett Ryan - who previously had made his own deficit claculations as a result of the "Big, Beautiful Bill"- writes, while the specific components of the additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension differed from what he had previously outlined, the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up was largely in line with the top-line deficit assumptions provided by Deutsche Bank. However, one key difference was 2025, where Ryan had assumed more of the additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension would be made retroactive to 2025. The first table below shows DB's prior estimates for deficit increases from tax and spending measures – excluding tariff revenue assumptions – compared to the latest JCT score of the Ways and Means mark up. To be sure, the JCT scoring of the Ways and Means Committee mark-up does not capture key elements of the fiscal outlook – namely, estimates of tariff revenues and potential spending increases. Recall that the Ways and Means Committee is responsible for the tax writing portion of the bill and JCT only scores revenue-related measures. Indeed, CBO scoring will likely provide a more complete picture on tariff revenue and spending as the legislative process moves forward. DB anticipates $300bn of increased spending on border and defense to be front loaded over the next couple of years as well as tariff revenues of around ~250bn per year. Risks are two-sided at this point. On the one hand, tariff revenues could be higher than currently penciled in, which assumes a ~15% tariff rate and only 2% import growth on average going forward. Conversely, the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up can be best thought of as a floor in terms of deficit increases over the 10-year budget window. The final legislative product is likely to show even less savings once the House and Senate “reconcile” their differences. In short, as DB concludes, "there appears to be no serious effort at reining in historically-elevated deficits which remain on track to exceed over 6% of GDP in the coming years." Extending on this, Morgan Stanley writes that the bank's base case is that a politically viable fiscal package will be composed of tax cut extensions with incremental tax cuts mostly offset by “pay-fors”. As such, the key driver of projected deficit expansion in 2026 is slowing economic growth and cost growth embedded in current policy, and this fiscal package would add modestly to that baseline. Accounting for potential tariff revenue as a mitigant, the bank expects a 2026 deficit of 7.1% of GDP (vs. 6.7% in 2025), an increase of ~$310 billion year on year... ... however, the bank also lays out a low and high deficit case, where the former leads to a $400BN increase in the deficit, while the latter "only" $200BN. Taking a look at the bigger picture, keep in mind that the bulk of the BBB is just extending on the tax cuts from Trump 1.0, which is why if the bill does not pass, it would be equivalent to a huge tax hike, one which would lead to a lower budget deficit, but lead to an immediate recession as it would translate into a massive fiscal headwind. As such, while the BBB does lead to higher deficits, if largely due to secondary drivers such as the record $1.2 trillion in gross interest expense and economic slowdown, the Big Beautiful Bill will not result in much policy stimulus in 2026. Meanwhile, as Morgan Stanley notes, even assuming continuation of current policy, deficits should increase as the economy slows. And speaking of growth slowing down, MS expects this to happen due to a rise in uncertainty, trade policy, and restrictive immigration, but really it is a modest normalization of the runaway spending of the last two years of the Biden admin. In any case, softer economic growth means lower revenues and a higher deficit. In fact, only a third of the deficit increase for 2026 is due to discretionary fiscal policy in excess of TCJA extension. Finally, we look at the latest in-depth analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which estimates the BBB would add $3.3 trillion to the debt including interest or $5.2 trillion if its temporary provisions are made permanent. In part because new borrowing is front-loaded and offsets are back-loaded, the bill would add massively to near-term deficits. Unlike Morgan Stanley, the CRFB estimates the House bill would boost the FY 2027 deficit – the deficit in the first year the policies would be fully in effect – substantially more, by nearly $600 billion, or 1.8% of GDP. That’s the net effect of roughly $770 billion of new borrowing and only $180 billion of offsets. The deficits boost represents a one-third increase in total projected deficits from $1.7 to $2.3 trillion – and a near doubling of the primary (non-interest) deficit. What is (perhaps not so) unique about the bill is that spending and tax cuts are front-loaded, while offsets are back-loaded, which means about 55% of the gross deficit increases – $2.8 trillion – would take place in the first half of the budget window. Meanwhile only 40% of the offsets – $970 billion – would accumulate over that period. As a result, 70% of the non-interest borrowing would occur in the first five years. The tax cut and spending increase provisions are front-loaded due to the use of “arbitrary expirations” designed to limit reported costs. A number of provisions – including the enhanced Child Tax Credit and standard deduction, no tax on tips and overtime, 100 percent bonus depreciation for equipment, and new ‘MAGA accounts’ – are scheduled to expire in 2028 or 2029. The bill also relies on one-time appropriations for defense and immigration, which must be obligated by 2029. And finally, the bill includes a large number of retroactive provisions that provide a one-time windfall for activities already undertaken. Meanwhile, many of the offsets don’t begin or ramp up until late in the budget window. Medicaid work requirements, for example, save $300 billion through 2034 but do not take effect until 2028. In addition, while some of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) energy credits are repealed at the end of 2025, the most expensive ones only begin phasing out in a few years with some restrictions taking effect sooner. And the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) state matching fund requirements do not start until 2028. As a result of this mismatch and the sheer size of the bill’s deficit increases, the House bill would add to the deficit in every single year – with the possible exception of 2025 – even after the temporary provisions expire. But the largest deficit increases will take place very early in the budget window. The impact of tariffs aside, this additional acceleration in near-term borrowing could stoke inflation and push up interest rates well above current levels. And it may continue in the future if Congress extends expiring provisions and perhaps cancel some of the offsets. But what is most amazing, is that even this massive increase in the US deficit in the coming years is still a remarkable slowdown to the debt and deficit avalanche observed during the Biden administration, where like the president himself the economy was kept on life support thanks to a cocktail of debt, debt and more debt, as we first explained in the summer of 2023. This is how Bank of America's Michael Hartnett explained the "policy math" as one where monetary and fiscal policy stimulus in 2024 was best in USA, but in 2025 it’s better in the Rest-of-World: US Fed funds rate: 2024 = down 100bps, 2025 = unchanged. US government spending: past 12 months spending up huge $750bn (to $7.1tn), next 12 months spend down $50bn according to FY26 budget proposal. US tariffs: past 12 months import duties raised $85bn, next 12 months = $400-600bn (assuming 10-15% tariff rate), tariff taxation that falls on either foreign exporters, domestic importers, or domestic consumers. US tax cuts: next 12 months potentially start delivering $90bn per year in new tax cuts (rather than tax cut extensions); per CRFB current cost of “big, beautiful bill” next 10 years sees $0.2tn TCJA expansion of tax cuts + $0.7tn new tax cuts. US policy stimulus crudely flipping from meaty 100bps cuts & $750bn fiscal stimulus to >$250bn fiscal contraction (spending cuts & tariff hikes before tax cuts) & zero rate cuts…big reason why US economy slows in 2025 Meanwhile, China is in big fiscal stimulus mood, and NATO military expenditures: defense spending in Europe set to rise $100bn per annum; per US proposal all other 31 NATO countries to raise military spend to 5% of GDP by 2032= $700bn extra defense spending by NATO ex. US (currently US accounts for $0.9tn or 69% of the NATO military budget covering 32 members The final straw, of course, was last Friday's Moody's downgrade of the US Aaa rating - the final one - which took place on purpose just as the debate over the BBB hit a fever pitch. And speaking of Moody's, earlier today we explained that the rating agency assumes the 2017 tax cuts are extended (unlike the last CBO semi-annual estimates), pushing debt and deficits much higher. The key Moody’s projections are: Interest + mandatory spending will hit 78% of total federal outlays by 2035 (from 73% in 2024) Deficits will rise from 6.4% to 9% of GDP by 2035 Debt/GDP will hit 134% by 2035 (vs. 98% today) And, as we also discussed earlier today in what America's Debt Doomsday looks like, both U.S. debt and deficits are about to truly take off. As shown in the chart below, while the baseline CBO projections don’t include the tax cut extension, one of their alternative scenarios of including it pushes debt/GDP above 200% of GDP over the decades ahead. The chart hardly needs any further commentary. For anyone "shocked" by this development, don't be: back in February we warned readers, while praising the efforts of Elon Musk and DOGE, that while superficially cutting and streamlining government spending here and there will help, it will do nothing at all in the grand scheme of things to truly slash unsustainable government spending, which is dictated by Congress... Here's the bigger play at hand, and why there is only token pushback to DOGE. You cut enough spending - even if it's all grift and fraud - you eventually get a recession, guaranteed. That's all Congress is waiting for cause then they use the "emergency" to vote through a far… February 8, 2025 ... and when it comes to the debt trajectory set there, nothing will ever stop this train, or as we put it in February: What Musk is doing in trying to streamline the govt is admirable but ultimately it will be Congress that decides the endgame. And there things are as status quo as always. Three months later, a rather dejected Elon Musk observed the same thing when he said that the $2 trillion DOGE savings goal relies on the government, and that the "Doge team has done incredible work, but the magnitude of the savings is proportionate to the support we get from Congress and from the executive branch of the government in general." 🚨 Elon Musk on DOGE: "The ability of Doge to operate is a function of whether the government, and this includes the Congress, is willing to take our advice. We are not the dictators of the government. We are the advisors, and so we can, we can advise, and the progress we've… pic.twitter.com/9RrK2rCxK2 May 20, 2025 And saving money is, unfortunately, the very last thing on the uniparty's mind. More in the full notes from the CRFB, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, all available to pro subscribers. Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 22:30
Nvidia CEO Calls Biden-Era AI Curbs A "Failure" With China Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called U.S. export controls on artificial intelligence chips to China under the Biden administration's AI diffusion rule a "failure" that risks ceding the $50 billion Chinese AI chip market to rivals like Chinese tech giant Huawei. Huang delivered a keynote speech at Computex in Taipei, Taiwan, earlier today in which he said, "All in all, the export control was a failure," adding, "The fundamental assumptions that led to the AI diffusion rule in the beginning, in the first place, have been proven to be fundamentally flawed." Huang was referring to the Biden-Harris regime era, where the U.S. blocked sales of advanced AI chips to China, which only forced companies to buy advanced chips from its competitor, Huawei. This also sparked a domestic wave of investment to build out supply chains for advanced AI chipmaking to reduce reliance on outside manufacturers. He said China alone will account for a $50 billion opportunity in 2026, warning that if U.S. tech companies were still cut off from the Chinese market, this would only suggest that local players would buy from competitors. "China has 50% of the world's AI developers, and it's important that when they develop on an architecture, they develop on Nvidia, or at least American technology," Huang pointed out. Huang praised President Trump's move to scrap the previous administration's AI diffusion rule: "President Trump realizes it's exactly the wrong goal." Under the Biden administration, Nvidia's China market share collapsed from 95% to 50%. Last week, Huang joined President Trump on a Gulf States tour that resulted in massive Blackwell deals for Nividia in Saudi Arabia. Nvidia secured a deal to supply 18,000 of its cutting-edge Blackwell chips to Humain, an AI startup just launched by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. Huang stated last week: "There's no evidence of any AI chip diversion. These are massive systems. The Grace Blackwell system is nearly two tons, and so you're not going to be putting that in your pocket or your backpack anytime soon. "The important thing is that the countries and the companies that we sell to recognize that diversion is not allowed and everybody would like to continue to buy Nvidia technology. And so they monitor themselves very carefully." "With the AI Diffusion Rule revoked, America will have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lead the next industrial revolution and create high-paying U.S. jobs, build new U.S.-supplied infrastructure, and alleviate the trade deficit," an Nvidia spokesperson told The Wall Street Journal last week. Reuters noted, "Trump administration officials are weighing discarding the tiered approach to chip export curbs and replacing it with a global licensing regime with government-to-government agreements, which could give the U.S. clout in trade talks." Given that the Biden-era AI diffusion rule was a "failure," in the words of Nvidia's CEO, one might question whether the policy ultimately benefited Chinese firms by sidelining Nvidia and allowing local competitors to gain market share. Looking ahead, Nvidia will report earnings on Wednesday. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 07:20
Goldman's Internet Playbook: Ten Themes Driving US Tech Landscape We are nearing the tail end of the first quarter earnings season. Excluding Nvidia, which is scheduled to report next Wednesday, the rest of the Magnificent Seven delivered year-over-year EPS growth of 28% in Q1, far outpacing the 9% growth recorded by the remainder of the S&P 500. Mag7 also surpassed consensus earnings estimates by 16%, marking the largest earnings surprise for Apple (AAPL) Microsoft (MSFT) Alphabet (GOOGL / GOOG) Amazon (AMZN) Nvidia (NVDA) Meta Platforms (META) Tesla (TSLA) since Q2 2021, when they outperformed estimates by 27%. As the midpoint of 2025 quickly approaches, Goldman analysts Eric Sheridan, Ben Miller, and others have updated their investment outlook, refining their top 10 themes for the U.S. internet sector, including: Secular Growth Opportunities – particularly in digital advertising, the merging of commerce and advertising, cloud computing, and local commerce. Key Industry Debates – including autonomous vehicles' impact on mobility, normalization in online travel, and expansion in interactive entertainment. Major Risks – such as regulatory scrutiny and AI-driven disruption AI remains the dominant theme in the eyes of the analyst. They noted that 2025 will be critical for platforms to demonstrate real returns from massive AI investments made over the past three years. While widespread disruption of existing consumer computing habits isn't expected, proof of utility and ROI will be closely watched. Here's more: As we framed in our Consumer Internet AI deep-dive, we believe that AI will continue to permeate more products and use cases for consumers, but see those shifts playing out over time and do not expect AI to drive wholesale displacement/disintermediation of existing computing habits. We continue to look at 2025 as a year where stakes are rising for platforms to prove out the adoption/utility/use cases of their investments in AI as we are now in year three of an elevated OpEx/CapEx cycle (& investors increasingly ask for proof points on the eventual return on investment). This interplay between levels of investment, visibility into a more distinct return profile and/or elements of rising utility-like behavior around such tools will likely remain dominant themes among large cap U.S. Internet this year. They noted that tariffs remain a volatile but critical factor, influencing cost structures and demand visibility. However, easing trade tensions in recent weeks and stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings results have helped stabilize big tech stocks. The analysts provided an easy-to-view breakdown of the Top 10 Themes shaping their coverage across the internet sector: The Evolution of the Consumer AI Landscape: AI is reshaping consumer and enterprise computing, spanning infrastructure (Cloud), model/platform ownership, and app-level use cases. Debates are expected to intensify in 2025. Most Exposed Stocks: Majority of coverage universe. The Implications of AI for Cloud Computing & CapEx: Cloud providers are investing heavily in AI workloads, balancing long-term AI opportunity with CapEx discipline. AI will increasingly impact revenue and margins. Most Exposed: AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, SNAP, NVDA. The Lines Between Advertising & eCommerce Models Continue to Blur: Ad and commerce models are converging. Retail media and automation drive budgets from traditional ads to digital platforms. Most Exposed: AMZN, GOOGL, META, PINS, UBER, CART, LYFT, IBTA. Digital Advertising Shifts to AI Automation & Direct Response: Ad platforms are moving toward AI-driven, lower-funnel/direct-response formats. This change supports performance marketing and measurable ROI. Most Exposed: GOOGL, META, AMZN, PINS, RDDT, APP, SNAP, DV, KIND, YELP, IBTA. A Future of AVs & the Pathway for Mobility Networks: AV (autonomous vehicle) developments, particularly from Uber and Waymo, are shaping the future of mobility. Network transitions and partnerships are key. The most exposed are UBER, LYFT, and GOOGL. The Battle for Same/Next-Day Local eCommerce: Consumer demand for faster delivery is driving innovation in local eCommerce. Restaurant and grocery segments are expanding. Most Exposed: AMZN, UBER, CART, LYFT. The Normalization of Online Travel Demand: Travel growth is stabilizing. Companies are focused on funnel efficiency, regulatory impacts, and GenAI-driven demand strategies. Most Exposed: EXPE, BKNG, ABNB, UBER, YO, TRIP. The Evolution of Interactive Entertainment Platforms. Interactive platforms are expanding content offerings and monetization methods. UGC, gaming, streaming, and live audio continue to grow. Most Exposed: NFLX, SPOT, RBLX, EA, TTWO, U, BILI, RBLX, GENI, WBTN. The Transition from Spatial to Mobile Computing: Big tech continues to shift toward mobile-first and device-independent experiences, spanning hardware, software, and services. Most Exposed: META, GOOGL, AMZN, SNAP, RBLX, EA, TTWO, U, BILI, GENI. Regulatory Matters & Changing Ecosystem Defaults: Structural risks from regulation, platform control, and consolidation dominate industry risk profiles, particularly in ad tech, app distribution, and AI. Most Exposed: AMZN, GOOGL, META, LYFT, UBER, ABNB, BKNG, EXPE. Top stock picks: We see the most compelling risk/reward in companies that face short-term investor concerns and highlight: 1) GOOGL where debates on the impact of AI on core search and ongoing regulatory matters overshadow strong operating performance across a) Search & Other revenue producing upside in Q1, b) strong operating margins as efficiencies help fund long-term platform/product investments, & c) a very strong mix of growth and margins from Google Cloud; & 2) AMZN where debates persist on the impact of higher tariffs but where we believe that a) price/negotiation levers can help mitigate the cost impact of tariffs, b) that AMZN remains well positioned to gain market share, and c) remains levered to several attractive longer-term secular growth themes (incl. AI, Cloud computing, retail media, streaming, sports). Within our Large Cap coverage, we are also Buy rated on META, UBER (CL), SPOT, and Neutral rated on ABNB, APP, NFLX & BKNG. For SMID Caps, we see outsized risk/reward Buy rated opportunities in PINS (on CL), CART, DKNG & MTCH over the next 12 months. Ahead of Nvidia's earnings next week, Mag7 stocks have recovered all losses sparked by Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. While the index has been inching closer to record highs, momentum has stalled in recent sessions. What's next for the internet? Pro subs can view the full note here. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 06:55
"We Have Imported Knife Violence" – Wave Of Attacks Shakes Germany Once Again Via Remix News, Another wave of knife attacks has hit Germany, showing that not much has changed despite the many lost lives and Germans maimed in knife attacks. In fact, the statistics show that these crimes are even getting worse, with 79 knife attacks per day now recorded. A German criminal lawyer warns that Germany has “imported knife violence,” in response to growing blade crimes. In the last few days, headlines include Kosovar man arrested after knife attack in Germany injures three, including 12-year-old girl” “Man stabbed half to death on basketball court,” “Manhunt continues after Syrian asylum seeker stabs 5 outside student bar in Bielefeld,” and “Rioter injures police officer with knife.” However, thousands of such headlines have run in the German press in recent years, with Remix News reporting on many of them. The overwhelming number of perpetrators are foreigners or those with a foreign background, yet despite promises to crack down and enact deportations of migrant criminals, the bloodshed not only continues but appears to be getting worse. His daughter was murdered by an illegal Palestinian migrant, stabbed 38 times, along with her boyfriend. 17-year-old Ann-Marie is gone, but her father won't let her memory die. He delivered a message to Olaf Scholz's face: "There are parents standing at the grave or coffin of… pic.twitter.com/JDslDGKFA4 October 16, 2024 “We have imported knife violence. In other cultures, the knife is a kind of status symbol. This is changing the social climate here in the country,” stated criminal attorney Udo Vetter. He further notes that “knives have become an everyday companion for many people. And the barrier to using them is low.” Notably, he warns that due to the rise of knives and knife crimes, it is creating a problem that is expected to only grow exponentially, with more and more people arming themselves with knives out of fear. “Because if some people deliberately pack a knife as a murder weapon, more and more people will also resort to knives, supposedly to defend themselves,” stated Vetter. “Young people in particular have knives in their pockets just like their cell phones.” However, this problem has been warned about nearly every week, including from the German police themselves. Manuel Ostermann, deputy head of the Federal Police Union, stated that “the knife as a means of committing a crime always immediately poses a concrete threat to life and limb. Politicians must now take all possible measures to curb this phenomenon.” Ostermann is the same police union head who said that Germany’s crime problem is actually an immigration problem during a viral speech last year. 🇩🇪‼️ "Germany is no longer a safe country... The migration crisis is first and foremost a crime crisis." German police union (DPoIG) chairman Manuel Ostermann makes a major statement following the Solingen terror attack by a Syrian Islamist. pic.twitter.com/ZolmrLnMHa August 28, 2024 The head of the German Police Union, Rainer Wendt, also spoke out about the knife crime problem, saying: “The threshold for violence is getting lower and lower. And the fuse is getting shorter. Knives are being drawn even for trivial reasons and seemingly harmless disputes.” As Remix News previously reported, violent crime reached a record high in Germany last year, with foreigners responsible for nearly half of crimes. There were 29,014 cases in total involving a crime where a knife was used, of which, 15,741 were knife attacks. Serious and dangerous bodily harm with a knife increased by 10.8 percent in 2024 compared to 2023. 🇩🇪 For every well-integrated Middle Eastern migrant, you have so many of these guys causing terror across Europe. Knife crime has skyrocketed in Germany, with nearly 30,000 knife-related crimes taking place last year. Video shot near German supermarket Kaufland. pic.twitter.com/maYEL9vYdA April 17, 2025 The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is going on the offensive under the new Christian Democrat-led government, with security and immigration still top concerns. Alice Weidel, AfD party co-leader, mocked the new government’s “five-point plan” to fix the immigration crisis, saying that the border is not secured despite promises. “Failed border controls and broken promises are what remains of the ‘5-Point Plan.’ This is demonstrated not least by the violent incidents in Bielefeld and Halle. In North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU state governments show no willingness to initiate a migration turnaround,” wrote Weidel on X. Gescheiterte Grenzkontrollen & gebrochene Versprechen sind das, was vom "5-Punkte-Plan" geblieben ist. Das zeigen nicht zuletzt die Gewalttaten in Bielefeld & Halle. In NRW & Sachsen-Anhalt zeigen die CDU-Landesregierungen keinerlei Willen zur Einleitung einer Migrationswende. pic.twitter.com/upQcik1l4N May 19, 2025 The leader of the AfD parliamentary group in the Baden-Württemberg state parliament, Anton Baron MdL, has accused Christian Socialist Union (CDU) parliamentary group leader Manuel Hagel of hypocrisy regarding knife crimes in Germany. “Although the proportion of people without German passports is significantly lower in the population, there is a significantly higher crime rate here,” he told SWR. He said he considered the increased number of knife attacks by foreigners “alarming.” “Such ‘unpleasant truths’ must be spoken. It couldn’t be more hypocritical: The CDU, above all, has caused this situation since 2015. Has the party distanced himself from it to this day? On the contrary: Hegel has rejected all our draft laws and motions to limit migration and defamed us as more right-wing than right-wing. Hagel can point his bigoted finger at others as much as he wants: his party, under Interior Minister Strobl, believes it can tackle the rampant problem of migrant knife-wielding men with pseudo-solutions like gun-free zones. But this problem no longer needs to be ‘debated in our country’ – it must finally be solved. But apart from the AfD, no one wants or can do that.” Read more here... Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 06:30
Nike Is Still America's Favorite Apparel Brand There are few markets where brands matter more than in fashion and apparel. You can sell a white t-shirt for $10 dollars, or you can put a brand logo on it and sell the same shirt for $50 (or $120 for that matter). While some brands charge prices unaffordable for the majority of people and seek brand strength in exclusiveness, others happily cater to the mainstream and still manage to maintain a strong brand image. Nike is one example for such a brand. Even though the company’s iconic Swoosh is omnipresent, the brand is almost universally loved – and not just by athletes. As Felix Richter reports, according to Statista Consumer Insights, Nike is the most popular apparel/footwear brand in the United States. You will find more infographics at Statista When asked about the brands they bought products from in the past three months, 40 percent of the 2,168 Americans polled named Nike as one of their go-to brands, with the company's largest rival Adidas a close second at 35 percent. Other popular brands include American classics Calvin Klein, Levi's and Ralph Lauren as well as Nike's Jordan brand, New Balance and Under Armour, further illustrating the popularity of athleisure brands. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 05:45
Houthis Add Key Northern Israeli Port To Target List For Ballistic Missiles Via The Cradle The Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF.. Ansarallah/Houthis) announced that its leadership has decided to impose a blockade on the northern Israeli port of Haifa, in response to Tel Aviv’s violent escalation in the Gaza Strip. "In response to the Israeli enemy's escalation of its brutal aggression against our brothers and people in Gaza … The Yemeni Armed Forces … has decided, with God's help, to implement the leadership's directives to begin work on imposing a naval blockade on the port of Haifa," it said in a statement released on its media page early Tuesday. "Accordingly, all companies with ships present in this port or heading to it are hereby notified that the aforementioned port has been included in the target bank since the time of announcing this statement, and they must take into consideration what is said in this statement and what will be stated later," it added. Via Reuters Since the Omani-mediated ceasefire agreement earlier this month – which saw Washington end its indiscriminate campaign against Yemen and Sanaa stop its operations targeting US ships – the YAF has targeted Israel several times. A May 12 report by the New York Times (NYT) revealed that US President Donald Trump was forced to agree to a deal that did not include Yemen halting attacks against Israel, given that the first weeks of the US campaign burned through $1 billion in munitions and "had not even established air superiority" over the YAF and the Ansarallah movement. In addition to the naval ban on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea, Sanaa has also maintained a blockade on Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, which was directly struck by a Yemeni ballistic missile in early May. As a result, several international airliners have suspended flights to Israel. Tel Aviv has recently launched massive attacks on Yemen and has threatened to assassinate Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Ansarallah – which is merged with the YAF. The YAF carried out its first hypersonic ballistic missile attack targeting the city of Haifa on 23 April. The Houthi decision to add Haifa port to its target list comes after Israel reportedly killed over 500 Palestinians in Gaza in just a few days. On May 17, Israel announced the start of Operation Gideon’s Chariots, which aims to bring the entirety of Gaza under Israeli control and will see the army displace the whole population and confine it to a small area in the southern region of the strip. Yemeni Armed Forces: "We warn global airlines against heading to Ben Gurion Airport because it is unsafe." pic.twitter.com/lKQZL1EgWy May 4, 2025 After three months of a total blockade that compounded a severe humanitarian crisis in the strip, Israel allowed only five aid trucks into Gaza on Tuesday. Tel Aviv said it would only allow a “basic quantity” of food to enter Gaza. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 05:00
Breaking Down Global Military Spending By Country In 2024 In a world where superpowers are defined by economic and military stature, countries continue to invest hundreds of billions in military and defense every year. In 2024, global military expenditure reached $2.7 trillion, hitting a record high - and just three countries made up more than half of the total. This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, breaks down global military spending by country in 2024, highlighting the top military spenders using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The World’s Biggest Military Spenders in 2024 America continues to dominate global military expenditure, spending nearly $1 trillion or 3.4% of its GDP on defense in 2024. U.S. military expenditure makes up over one-third of the global total, and it also has the world’s biggest defense budget. Here’s a look at the top 20 countries by military spending in 2024: China follows the U.S. with an estimated $314 billion in military expenditure, up 7% from 2023. Over the last decade (2015–2024), China’s military spending increased by 59%. Meanwhile, Russia’s spending was up by 38% year over year at nearly $150 billion. Together, the United States, China, and Russia—often considered strategic competitors—made up 54% of global military expenditure in 2024. Germany and India round out the top five, with both countries ramping up military spending in light of rising geopolitical tensions in recent years. India’s simmering tensions with Pakistan and China contribute to its defense budget. Meanwhile, as a major NATO member, Germany’s spending is partly down to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Together, NATO countries made up 55% of global military expenditure in 2024. In the eighth spot, Ukraine has seen the biggest jump in military spending in recent years—with its 2024 spending at nearly 10 times 2021 levels. It also has the highest military burden globally at 34.5% of its GDP in 2024. Although peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are ongoing, a complete ceasefire is yet to be achieved. To see how global military expenditure has evolved in the 21st century, check out 20 Years of Global Military Spending on the Voronoi app. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 04:15
UK Space Ambitions Clash With NATO Airspace Concerns Via CityAM, The UK’s new vertical launch spaceport at Saxa Vord poses risks to Icelandic airspace and territorial waters, potentially disrupting transatlantic flights and marine ecosystems. Exclusion zones for rocket launches could interfere with NATO's ability to effectively patrol the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap, an area of strategic importance for defense. While a memorandum of understanding exists between the UK and Iceland, it may not adequately address the full defense and military ramifications of frequent space launches in this critical region. When I relocated to the UK from New York in 1984, the Cold War was at its peak. US nuclear and conventional forces were spread across Europe and fears of a Soviet invasion or nuclear exchange were ever-present. In the UK, another critical strategic concern was the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) gap, which are two stretches of the North Atlantic separating these three countries. During the Cold War, Soviet naval forces aimed to control this gap to access the broader North Atlantic and block NATO reinforcements to Europe, a scenario famously depicted in Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising. After the Cold War ended and the so-called Peace Dividend reduced the gap’s significance, its strategic importance faded. However, since 2014, with Russia’s renewed assertiveness, the GIUK gap has regained prominence in NATO planning. The US reopened Keflavik Naval Air Station in Iceland in 2016, re-established its 2nd Fleet in 2018 to protect the gap and, as recently as March 2025, Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 increased its patrols in the region. I warn of danger While NATO has prepared for Russian threats, a new risk closer to home is now emerging: the UK’s and Europe’s first vertical launch spaceport at Saxa Vord, Shetland. Ironically, this site was once an RAF early warning and air defence base during the Cold War, bearing the motto Praemoneo de Periculis, or “I warn of danger”. Commercial space launches are still in their infancy, but recent incidents such as SpaceX’s launch failures – spreading debris across Florida and the Caribbean and grounding flights – and a Norwegian test rocket explosion highlight the risks. Saxa Vord itself attempted a rocket launch last August, resulting in an engine explosion. The international nature of space launches means that countries near Saxa Vord, especially Iceland, are directly in the path of up to 30 planned launches per year, four a month at peak, with ambitions to increase to 40 or 50 annually. These launches pose multiple risks to Iceland and the GIUK gap: Rockets may enter Icelandic airspace, with first-stage returns falling through Icelandic airspace and into territorial waters. Catastrophic failures could scatter debris, whilst hazardous chemicals from rocket propellants threaten marine ecosystems. Rerouted transatlantic flights of up to 76 a day, according to Icelandic air traffic control’s ‘anonymous’ response to the CAA’s Saxa Vord licence consultation. Even more importantly and less scrutinised – the presence of exclusion zones for launches could undermine NATO’s ability to patrol the gap effectively. Memorandum of Misunderstanding These risks are partly managed by a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the UK and Iceland in July 2021. The MoU mandates the closure of designated Icelandic sea and airspace areas before launches and outlines some procedures for debris recovery. However, while a handful of Icelandic officials are aware of the implications, the broader political and media discourse in both countries has yet to grapple with the full defence and military ramifications of the impact of such numbers of launches into NATO’s strategic sea and airspace. The current trajectory of UK space ambitions – and planned rocket launch from the UK – means the UK’s space ambitions could inadvertently undermine the very security framework that underpins Western interests in the North Atlantic and the Arctic. There is an urgent need for both the UK and Icelandic governments to reassess the risks from Saxa Vord, ensuring that existing bilateral agreements align the UK’s space programme with enduring geopolitical realities and the security needs of NATO and its allies. Saxa Vord has to be a success – but upon the present strategy security triumphs space whilst Iceland is developing its own space strategy – which might well consider how launch capability could be nationalised to give greater control over risk. Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 03:30
Tea Or Coffee? Today, May 21 marks International Tea Day. With a global market valued at nearly $50 billion in 2023, tea is said to be the second most consumed beverage in the world. As the United Nations notes, the tea industry provides "a major source of income and export earnings for some of the poorest countries and, thanks to its high labor requirements, generates numerous jobs, particularly in remote and economically disadvantaged areas." As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, Statista Consumer Insights surveyed 23 countries around the world to find out more about global tea drinking habits. It found that while tea was a popular choice for many respondents, coffee proved to be consumed by a higher share of adults in almost every country surveyed, save for Turkey, Morocco and India. You will find more infographics at Statista In the United States a comparatively lower share of people said they drank tea (46 percent) or coffee (53 percent) regularly, while soft drinks were more popular (56 percent). Tyler Durden Wed, 05/21/2025 - 02:45
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