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These Are The Best Countries For Work-Life Balance In 2025 In today’s fast-paced world, finding a healthy balance between life and work is becoming more important than ever. This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks countries based on how well they support this balance in 2025. The results highlight the nations that prioritize well-being alongside productivity. The data for this visualization comes from Remote.com. It evaluates 20 countries on metrics like paid leave, maternity benefits, minimum wage, healthcare, safety, and happiness to produce a composite life-work balance index. New Zealand and Ireland Lead the Way New Zealand tops the list with an index score of 86.9 of 100, offering 32 days of statutory annual leave and 26 weeks of fully paid maternity leave. Ireland follows with similarly generous benefits, including universal healthcare and a high minimum wage. According to the OECD, countries with robust social protections often report higher worker satisfaction and mental health outcomes. Country Index Score / 100 Annual Leave (Days) Paid Maternity Leave Minimum Wage (USD$) Healthcare System 🇳🇿 New Zealand 86.9 32 26 weeks, 100% pay 16.42 Universal 🇮🇪 Ireland 81.2 30 26 weeks, 70% pay 13.96 Universal 🇧🇪 Belgium 75.9 30 15 weeks, 75% pay 14.58 Public-Private 🇩🇪 Germany 74.7 30 14 weeks, 100% pay 15.16 Public-Private 🇳🇴 Norway 74.2 35 49 weeks, 100% pay 0 Universal 🇩🇰 Denmark 73.8 35 18 weeks, 100% pay 0 Universal 🇨🇦 Canada 73.5 17 18 weeks, 55% pay 11.6 Universal 🇦🇺 Australia 72.1 30 12 weeks, minimum wage 18.12 Public-Private 🇪🇸 Spain 71.9 36 16 weeks, 100% pay 8.39 Universal 🇫🇮 Finland 70.9 36 15 weeks, 80% pay 0 Universal 🇬🇧 UK 69.7 28 39 weeks, 100% pay 15.67 Universal 🇳🇱 Netherlands 69.0 28 16 weeks, 100% pay 11.98 Private 🇵🇹 Portugal 68.7 31 6 weeks, 100% pay 5.6 Universal 🇦🇷 Argentina 68.4 29 12.6 weeks, 100% pay 14.89 Public-Private 🇦🇹 Austria 68.0 38 16 weeks, 100% pay - Public-Private 🇫🇷 France 67.6 36 16 weeks, 100% pay 14.05 Public 🇵🇱 Poland 65.3 33 20 weeks, 100% pay 6.97 Public 🇭🇺 Hungary 63.4 33 24 weeks, 100% pay 4.42 Public 🇨🇿 Czech Republic 63.1 33 28 weeks, 70% pay 4.79 Public 🇸🇪 Sweden 62.9 34 14 weeks, 75% pay - Universal Northern Europe Offers Extensive Time Off Scandinavian countries such as Norway, Denmark, and Finland rank high due to long paid leave and universal healthcare. Norway, notably, provides up to 49 weeks of 100% paid maternity leave. These countries consistently score well on happiness and life satisfaction indexes, driven by social equality and support systems. Healthcare and Wages Influence Ranking Countries with universal healthcare and higher minimum wages generally perform better in the index. Canada, Australia, and the UK all offer universal systems and competitive wages, though they differ in maternity support. If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Mapping Global Happiness By Country in 2025 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 05:45
Ukrainian Oligarchs Have Become Incredibly Rich From The War Writes Swiss Newspaper Via Remix News, Ukraine was widely recognized as the most corrupt country even before the Ukraine war, but since war broke out and tens of billions of euros have flowed into the country, corruption has flourished like never before. Swiss newspaper Neue Züricher Zeitung details how a clique of oligarchs, many of them close to President Volodymyr Zelensky, have grown famously wealthy. “These big businessmen are profiting enormously from the war, while also being patriotic, pro-Western and very discreet,” wrote the Swiss Neue Züricher Zeitung‘s (NZZ) Kyiv correspondent, Guillaume Ptak. In other words, instead of showing off with sports cars, these new oligarchs know they have to keep their wealth hidden amid a devastating war. The paper details five individuals who have profited enormously. “The war, which has entered its fourth year, is proving to be a profitable field for businessmen like Andri Stawnizer, Andri Kobolev, Oleksander Hereha, Andri Kolodyuk, and Vasil Khmelnitsky. The quintet has established itself in the war economy, investing in rebuilding what the Russian army destroys time and again. earns a fortune in strategic sectors such as logistics, energy, or construction materials. Typical war profiteers? Sure. But not entirely,” writes the Swiss paper. They are making a fortune in strategic sectors. While this could be considered typical war profiteering it is also seen in a more positive light, since they ultimately support the army and the civilian population. According to the NZZ journalist, they are therefore“not like their classic predecessors, who recovered after the change of regime. They were mostly swept away by the war. The new generation does not buy TVs, newspapers or representatives, nor parties or private armies.” NZZ writes that this new generation of oligarchs is not like the old one, and that “reins are held by President Volodymyr Zelensky.” While Ukrainian authorities welcome most of the new oligarchs, this does not mean that they automatically have good relations with the presidential office. The paper notes that Kobolev, in particular, was known for his anti-corruption activities even before the war. He reportedly does not have the best relationship with Zelensky and has now been charged with corruption himself. As for the other four, the paper does not make any allegations of corruption, but Ukraine is known as a country where corruption is entrenched from the top to the bottom of the system. Many leading officials have been charged with corruption, but skeptics claim that in many cases, these are only the officials who ran afoul of someone with more power, who wanted to remove a rival or settle a score. As NZZ notes, overpricing is common in public procurement across Ukraine, which often means businessmen are taking a cut on top of any services they provide, with others in the chain of decision-making receiving a cut. While war has been profitable for Ukraine’s new oligarchs, NZZ writes that peace will likely pay off even more for them. When the war ends, they stand to make even bigger profits through reconstruction, agriculture, and mineral resources. The issue of public corruption has drawn criticism from officials in other European states, many who worry about integrating Ukraine into the European Union. “Ukraine is now ruled by an oligarchic regime that increasingly survives on external support. It is a state characterized by rampant corruption and an absence of genuine democratic frameworks,” said former German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine during an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in January of this year. In Ukraine, high-level corruption ranks second among the main concerns of Ukrainians after the Russian-Ukrainian war, a survey conducted by the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption revealed. The results of the research previously presented by the Transcarpathian news portal Kárpáti Igaz Szó show that 71.6 percent of the population consider this to be the country’s second-biggest problem, and 73 percent of entrepreneurs think the same. According to 87.9 percent of the population and 81.3 percent of businesses, the level of embezzlement in the country has increased compared to 2022. Many hold Zelensky responsible, with 47.5 percent of citizens and 48.3 percent of company representatives stating that combating corruption is the responsibility of the president and his office. In contrast, 36.9 percent of respondents and 32.4 percent of business people say that the anti-corruption agency, or the Supreme Council, is the one that should take action to curb corruption. The responses also included claims that the Council of Ministers and ministries can be held accountable for the spread of corruption. Read more here... Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 05:00
These Are The World's Most Common Passwords Most people are guilty of using a weak password at some point. But just how predictable can they be? This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu, reveals the top 25 most commonly used passwords globally, from ‘123456’ to ‘password’. Data & Discussion The data for this visualization comes from NordPass, which analyzed the most frequently used passwords based on a 2.5TB database of credentials exposed by data breaches. Numbers Still Reign Supreme The top password—“123456”—was used over 3 million times in the dataset analyzed by NordPass. In fact, six of the top 10 passwords are purely numeric, highlighting how common predictable number patterns remain. These types of passwords are among the easiest for hackers to guess using brute-force attacks, taking a matter of seconds. Keyboard Patterns and Simple Words Along with numbers, users often rely on keyboard sequences like “qwerty” or common words like “password” and “secret.” While these may be easy to remember, they’re also easy to hack. Variations like “Password” or “password1” offer little improvement in security. How to Create a Strong Password According to NordPass, your password should be at least 20 characters long and include uppercase and lowercase letters, numbers, and special symbols (e.g. @#$%). Some browsers, such as Google Chrome, can also suggest a strong password for you. Additionally, NordPass suggests that you never reuse passwords. If one account were to be compromised, other accounts that share the same password could also be at risk. If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Five Most Common Cybersecurity Mistakes on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 04:15
"It's Not A Human Right To Live In Sweden" - New Integration Minister Calls For Migrant Values Survey Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News, Sweden’s new Minister for Education and Integration, Simona Mohamsson, says it’s time to stop relying on gut feelings and start using facts when it comes to integration. The new Liberals leader called for plans to map immigrants’ values, to find out where many sit on cultural issues that may not align with those held by native Swedes. “It is not a human right to live in Sweden,” she said in a recent interview with Dagens Nyheter. The government has asked the World Values Survey (WVS), a global research group, to study how immigrants’ views compare with those of people born in Sweden. Mohamsson says it’s about time Sweden looked at hard data instead of assumptions. “For too long, integration has been based on gut feeling and guesswork,” she said. “With real facts, we can finally talk clearly about Swedish values and take proper action on integration.” Mohamsson pointed out that Sweden is very different from many countries when it comes to things like religion, gender equality, and family roles. “We’re an extreme country in a good way,” she said. “People coming here can find it hard to understand how our society works.” Mohamsson said the results could lead to changes in schools, civic classes, or language courses for migrants. Past surveys have shown that many migrants arrive in Sweden with very different views on topics like divorce, premarital sex, abortion, and homosexuality. Over time, those views tend to shift — after about 10 years, migrants’ values start to resemble those of Swedes. But Mohamsson says that’s too slow. “Ten years is way too long,” she said. “That’s an entire generation of girls who can’t choose who they love or boys who can’t come out.” “This isn’t about forcing people to change what they think. It’s about making sure everyone respects the core values we have in Sweden,” she said. “It would be strange to say some people don’t need to follow those values.” However, some political parties — especially the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, who prop up the current government — consider this approach to be far too soft. They argue that Sweden has already waited too long to tackle cultural clashes and that surveys and gradual changes are not enough. Instead, they demand tough measures, including deportations or stricter immigration controls for migrants who do not accept Swedish and Western values. The Sweden Democrats recently announced they will campaign in the 2026 general election on a pledge to stop migration to the country. “Sweden’s safety must come first — even when it conflicts with the right of asylum,” its party leader, Jimmie Åkesson, wrote in May. Their concerns have gained traction amid growing unrest across Sweden. Migrant gang violence has reached record levels, with deadly shootings, bombings, and grenade attacks now at an all-time high. Police regularly report surging conflicts between criminal groups, and some neighborhoods in major cities are now described as no-go zones for locals after dark. Even the Moderate Party, which leads the current government, has begun increasing its remigration efforts and pushing for higher income thresholds for prospective migrants, in part due to mounting pressure from the Sweden Democrats and growing public frustration over crime and integration failures. Mohamsson wants to portray her party as one that understands these concerns, stressing that people who move to Sweden have a duty to try to fit in. “It’s not a human right to live in Sweden,” she repeated. “This isn’t about opinions — it’s about finding out which values clash with Swedish ones.” This is one of Mohamsson’s first big interviews since becoming both integration minister and leader of the Liberals. She admitted her views have changed over time — she used to oppose her party’s shift to the right, but now she’s a minister in a government supported by the Sweden Democrats. Asked about this, she said, “Yeah, I’ve changed my mind since I first got into politics 15 years ago. When it comes to problems in schools and integration, I think the best way to fix them is through the cooperation we have now.” Despite the current government’s hardline rhetoric on migration, 60,000 foreigners still received Swedish citizenship in 2023. Read more here... Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 03:30
Ukraine Says Talks To Join NATO Becoming 'Very Toxic' Ukraine's talks with NATO over a path to future membership have become increasingly tense and unproductive, according to Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Georgy Tikhy. In a recent interview, Tikhy described the discussions as "toxic" (something he said elsewhere weeks ago too) - characterizing the negotiations as repetitive and are no longer making progress. He also indicated there does not appear to be a chance for breakthrough anywhere on the horizon. NATO file image The foreign ministry official conveyed his assessment in a recent interview featured on the YouTube channel of journalist Aleksandr Notevsky. The words gained attention in Russian state media, which subsequently translated some of Tikhy's key statements. "All the arguments and counterarguments have already been presented, and each new round of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to NATO goes in circles," he said. The discussions "have become, to put it simply, very toxic," he emphasized. The NATO bloc has consistently held out that "Ukraine's future is in NATO." Secretary-General Mark Rutte had at this summer's annual NATO defense summit, hosted in The Hague, issued similarly optimistic words. However, what's become clear is that waning American support for Ukraine's military, and even President Trump's stated desire to step back from leadership in NATO amid lack of fair cost-sharing among allies, has resulted in a broad decline in enthusiasm and momentum for Ukraine's accession. This is where things stand following NATO's June summit: It was therefore something of a relief that Nato’s summit in The Hague produced a short joint declaration on June 25 in which Russia was clearly named as a “long-term threat … to Euro-Atlantic security”. Member states restated “their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine”. While the summit declaration made no mention of future Nato membership for Ukraine, the fact that US president Donald Trump agreed to these two statements was widely seen as a success. Yet, within a week of the summit, Washington paused the delivery of critical weapons to Ukraine, including Patriot air defence missiles and long-range precision-strike rockets. The move was ostensibly in response to depleting US stockpiles. Simultaneously Russia has made steady gains along the almost 1,000km long frontline, and is even expanding operations into a central oblast, beyond the Donbass region. Georgy Tikhy, via Interfax-Ukraine Russian forces have also in the last days declared that it maintains full control over the whole region of the Luhansk, where Russian forces made quickest gains early on. The Kremlin has shown patience in this grinding war of attrition, though its advances have been costly in terms of manpower, as it taps reserves and continues recruitment efforts back home. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 02:45
Lights Out, Europe: The Cost Of Brussels' Energy Fantasy Authored by Javier Villamor via europeanconservative.com, Spain’s leading energy companies - Iberdrola, Endesa, and EDP - remain stunned. After the nationwide blackout that cut power across Spain on April 28, the government has yet to provide a clear explanation or take technical responsibility... The companies, represented by the employers’ association Aelec, have denounced “surprising omissions” in the official investigation. They demand that the extreme voltage spikes recorded in the days leading up to the collapse be included in the analysis. They have criticized the preliminary report from ENTSO-E—the European network of electricity operators—for claiming that “the system was operating normally” just seconds before the failure. Meanwhile, severe voltage swings were recorded, going beyond safety limits and triggering automatic shutdowns of high-voltage substations and key refineries. This episode is far more than an isolated incident. It is a metaphor for the erratic direction taken by the European Union’s energy policy. In the name of climate change, Brussels has embarked on a radical overhaul of its energy model driven not by technical or economic realities, but by an ideological agenda imposed by political and bureaucratic elites. What was marketed as a smooth transition toward renewable energy has turned into a forced green agenda, with no viable alternatives and little regard for its impact on competitiveness, system stability, or citizens’ well-being. At the root of this drift lies the REPowerEU plan, launched after the start of the war in Ukraine with the stated aim of “fully decoupling” Europe from Russian energy. What initially appeared to be a justified geostrategic measure quickly became, in the hands of the European Commission, a pretext to push through renewable energies at any cost. This led to a rushed and uneven transition, with citizens and businesses footing the bill. This leap into the void has destabilized key sectors such as agriculture, transport, and industry, forcing them to absorb rising costs without receiving real technological upgrades. Countries like Germany, which shut down their nuclear plants out of political conviction, have now had to reopen coal-fired stations in a contradictory reversal. Meanwhile, state propaganda continues to promote green energy self-sufficiency, while households face record electricity bills and companies lose competitiveness. The structural failures of the European power grid are becoming increasingly evident. The continental grid was designed for stable and predictable hydro, gas, and nuclear sources. The mass introduction of intermittent sources like wind and solar makes imbalances difficult to manage: without wind or sun, generation collapses; with too much, the grid becomes dangerously overloaded. On April 28th, the Iberian Peninsula experienced those consequences firsthand. Abnormal voltage levels were detected in several substations throughout the morning. To grasp the gravity: a “voltage oscillation” involves a sudden and significant fluctuation in the grid’s voltage, which can damage equipment, trigger automatic disconnections, or, in extreme cases, cause a total blackout. At the Lancha substation, voltage reached nearly 250 kV on a line rated for 220. Another line, rated at 400 kV, surpassed 470 kV just before the collapse. According to Aelec, these anomalies began as early as 10:00 a.m. While a sudden drop of 2,200 MW in generation has been cited as the trigger, the system is theoretically built to withstand a loss of up to 3,000 MW without shutting down. This was not a coincidental failure—it was a built-in weakness. Beyond technical and political issues, the forced energy transition takes a human toll. European households are paying more for electricity, hitting middle- and lower-income families especially hard. Electrification of transport, promoted without adequate foresight, is raising the cost of mobility due to a lack of reliable charging infrastructure. Farmers and truckers, already squeezed by unmanageable climate regulations, face growing expenses while being pressured to make investments they cannot afford. Moreover, blackouts are no minor issue: their impact ranges from multimillion-euro industrial losses to the paralysis of hospitals, schools, and transport networks. In Spain, the outage even cost five people their lives. An energy model that cannot ensure a steady supply threatens the economy and public safety. European industry, particularly in the central and southern parts of the continent, is already bearing the brunt. Unable to compete with American or Asian energy prices, many companies are relocating production or shutting down. Paradoxically, even sectors the green agenda promotes, such as electric vehicles, are faltering. Once-dominant car industries in Germany and France are struggling to stay afloat in an increasingly competitive global market. While Europe imposes ideological standards, China manufactures more, better, and cheaper. Deindustrialization is no longer a threat—it’s a fact. Notably, some factions on the Left even embrace “degrowth”—deliberate economic decline—as a desirable path. Worse still, despite all these sacrifices, Europe continues to import Russian energy—now via third countries—and remains vulnerable to geopolitical pressure. The promise of energy independence often rings hollow. The Green Deal has morphed from a promise of modernization into a political myth: a story no longer grounded in reality, propped up by propaganda that refuses to confront its contradictions. The public, increasingly aware of the real costs, is beginning to push back. The farmers’ resistance in the Netherlands gave rise to a political party now part of the ruling coalition. In other countries, protests and citizen discontent are multiplying. And this is only the beginning. This very week, farmers returned to Brussels to protest the suffocating policies they face. An energy transition is not inherently harmful, but cannot be imposed dogmatically. It requires realism, technological pluralism, gradual implementation, and a willingness to adopt what works. Nuclear, hydro, and natural gas must be part of the energy mix while green technologies mature. Sustainability will not be achieved by denying physics or punishing citizens, but by integrating every available tool with a long-term vision. What happened in Spain is a symptom, not an accident. Europe’s current energy model is not equipped to operate under the conditions imposed by Brussels. There is an urgent need to rethink energy policy—not through ideology, but through engineering, economics, and common sense. If the energy transition is to be our path forward, let it be pursued with caution, technological plurality, and respect for the system’s real limitations. Europe cannot afford to stumble in the dark in the name of a green light; it still does not know how to switch on. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 02:00
Australia's Latest Temporary Military Deployment To Europe Is Connected To Containing China Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack, Australia agreed during last month’s NATO Summit to deploy an E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft and up to 100 troops to Europe till November at the bloc and Poland’s request in support of Ukraine. This will be carried out under “Operation Kudu”, which “is the Australian Defence Force commitment to the training of Armed Forces of Ukraine personnel in the United Kingdom.” It follows a prior such deployment to Ramstein Air Base so the latest one isn’t really all that newsworthy. That doesn’t mean that it’s insignificant, however, since it’s important for observers to understand why Australia is continuing to militarily involve itself in a conflict on the opposite side of the planet. The reason is that Australia is doing so as a quid pro quo for Anglo-American support in containing China through AUKUS. Regardless of whether one agrees with it, the Australia government nowadays considers China to be an adversary – largely due to Anglo-American influence – and formulates policy accordingly. Sending arms to Ukraine, training its troops in the UK, and once again carrying out a temporary military deployment to Europe isn’t just a way to pay back its AUKUS allies, but also a means for obtaining experience in the event that China gets involved in a regional conflict. Whether it’s against Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, and/or the US, Australia expects to involve itself in a similar way as with Russia-Ukraine via the aforesaid means of arms shipments, training, and early warning and control missions. Moreover, by showing solidarity with NATO in its proxy war on Russia through Ukraine as explained above, Australia hopes that the bloc’s European members will repay the favor if it involves itself in a future AUKUS+ (AUKUS, Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines) proxy war on China. Even though they’d probably do this at their American “daddy’s” behest, albeit as a quid pro quo for “defending Europe from Russia” in this case (as they sincerely but wrongly believe), it’s a suitable pretext for the public. The larger goal is to craft the perception of a “Global West” that stretches across the Atlantic and Pacific to encompass both halves of Eurasia, thus enabling the US to “Lead From Behind” in containing China in the future and maybe once again Russia too depending on events. Australia’s role is therefore to serve as an example of an Asia-Pacific country contributing to the European front of the US’ present containment campaign against Russia to justify European countries contributing to a future Asian front against China. That being the case, Australia’s latest temporary military deployment to Europe actually advances a much grander strategic goal than most observers might have realized. In and of itself, Australia’s contribution to NATO’s proxy war on Russia through Ukraine is minimal and has no influence over the course of events, but it helps lay the ground for what might come next after that conflict finally ends. If Trump’s “total reset” with China fails, then the US-led “Global West” might more aggressively contain it. To that end, the precedent of Australia’s continued military involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict can be spun as the pretext for NATO’s European members involving themselves in a future AUKUS+ proxy war on China, which can be sold to the public as “paying back the favor out of solidarity”. The emerging “Global West” concept therefore isn’t just a “collection of democracies” like it’s been portrayed by some, but a collection of US military partners that can be relied upon for helping to contain its Eurasian rivals. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 23:25
How New Microschool Accreditation Pathways Are Opening Doors For Founders and Families Authored by Kerry McDonald via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), As a mother of nine in Tennessee, Sarah Fagerburg tried a variety of different schooling types, from public schools to homeschooling, but she always felt there had to be something better. In the spring of 2023, she discovered Acton Academy from listening to a podcast, and knew that this was the educational model she had been seeking. MCP Academy in Mansfield, Texas/FEE “My mind was blown,” said Fagerburg. “I had no idea education could be this good.” She applied to open her own Acton Academy, and was accepted into the fast-growing network of approximately 300 independently operated schools, emphasizing learner-driven education. Fagerburg launched Acton Academy Johnson City last fall with 13 students, including four of her own children. Today, she has 26 K-6 students enrolled in her secular microschool, with plans to add a middle school and high school program in the coming years. “Parents want this. They love it,” said Fagerburg, adding that some families drive up to 45 minutes each way for their children to attend her program. She says she sees enormous demand for the Acton Academy model, and hopes to open more locations in Tennessee, but access is a key concern. “I grew up poor,” said Fagerburg. “I never would have been able to attend a school like this.” With the current expansion of school choice programs, such as Tennessee’s new universal education savings accounts (ESA), many more families are able to access innovative schools and learning models. “It’s a complete game changer,” said Fagerburg, explaining how the ESA program enables Tennessee families who previously had limited education choices to now use a portion of state-allocated education funding to select the school or learning space that is best for their child. But there’s a catch. In order to participate in Tennessee’s ESA program, Fagerburg’s school must be accredited, and its current accreditation by the International Association of Learner Driven Schools isn’t recognized by the state. That is why Fagerburg jumped at the opportunity to participate in a fledgling program offered through the Middle States Association (MSA), one of the four major K-12 accreditation entities, with 3,200 member schools worldwide. In partnership with Stand Together Trust, MSA’s Next Generation Accreditation pilot program seeks to offer a faster, more affordable, and more flexible route toward accreditation for today’s emerging schools. “We created this flexible protocol around how a school actually works,” said Christian Talbot, President and CEO of MSA. “That gives mostly microschools, but really any innovative school, the opportunity to tell their story with the production of evidence that makes the most sense to them.” Talbot offered the example of a hypothetical urban “place-based” learning environment, with no designated school building and students taking classes at various museums, public parks, and historic sites throughout a city. “That school is going to have the opportunity to describe the learning environment in ways that existing accreditation protocols really don’t allow because you have to have a certificate of occupancy, or a lease, or some other thing that is tied to this mental model we have that school has to be in a building,” said Talbot. He emphasized that these innovative schools are “meeting all of the exact same standards of accreditation” as conventional schools, but they are able to demonstrate these standards in ways that reflect the ingenuity of their models. MSA is the world’s second-oldest accrediting agency. It launched more than a century ago, as interest grew from schools and colleges for independent, third-party verifiers of quality. For higher education, accreditation eventually became a requirement for US colleges and universities to participate in federal student financial aid programs, but at the K-12 level, mandatory accreditation is less common. Most states don’t require schools—public or private—to be accredited, but some schools choose to become accredited to earn an external “seal of approval,” which may help them to attract and retain students and educators. With the expansion of school-choice programs nationwide in recent years, certain states, such as Tennessee and Texas, require accreditation in order for a school to participate in these programs. Cammy Herrera had been exploring the possibility of accreditation for her secular microschool MCP Academy, in Mansfield, Texas, well before the state introduced a new universal school-choice program this spring. A former public school teacher, Herrera had been running a licensed in-home preschool for more than a decade when she decided in 2021 to add a Montessori-inspired school-age program. She now serves over 50 students through middle school, with plans to open a high school if she can find a larger space to accommodate more students. For Herrera, accreditation was appealing as a signal of quality, but she felt that most existing accrediting organizations took a traditional view of education that didn’t reflect her personalized, flexible approach. “Our school is so different. We are not trying to fit into a one-size-fits-all box when it comes to schooling,” said Herrera, whose students are technically considered homeschoolers. They can attend her school full-time at an annual tuition of $10,250, or customize their enrollment based on their own learning needs. Tuition for Herrera’s two-day-a-week option is about $4,000 annually. “Whoever we get accredited through has to believe in our vision and has to be on board with what makes our school special because we don’t want our school to lose that special part that makes us different from a traditional school,” she said. When Herrera learned about the MSA’s pilot accreditation program for microschools, she eagerly applied. Next Generation Accreditation would offer Herrera that third-party validation she has been seeking while retaining her program’s originality. It would also enable her to participate in Texas’s new school choice program, should she choose. MSA hopes to run the Next Generation Accreditation pilot with 10 to 15 innovative schools over the next several months to learn more about these schools’ distinct needs and structures, and then iterate and adapt protocols to provide a valuable accreditation pathway for today’s creative schooling models. As the creator of the Texas Microschools Facebook group, Herrera sees mounting interest in microschooling and the diverse educational models and methods that the movement fosters. She thinks that accreditation options that reflect this diversity can be beneficial to founders and families who value that credential, or who need it to participate in certain school-choice programs. But she also warns of potential drawbacks: “There are all these special schools, and if everybody has to follow the same standards to be accredited, then I think they’ll be more alike than different. That’s the only thing I could see being a downfall.” Originally published on The74, reposted from the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 22:35
Tipping Point: When Populations Peak As July 11 marks World Population Day, celebrating the approximate day that the world's population reached 5 billion on July 11, 1987, Statista's Felix Richter takes a closer look at one of the population trends that will affect many countries sooner or later in the 21st century: population decline. Especially prevalent across Europe and developed Asia, this demographic trend is a consequence of declining birth rates and ageing populations and poses significant challenges to the countries affected. You will find more infographics at Statista In countries like Japan and Italy, where population decline is estimated to have begun in 2010 and 2014, respectively, fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 percent a while ago. Influenced by factors such as higher education and career opportunities for women, shifts in societal norms regarding family and childbearing and an ageing overall population, natural population change, i.e. the difference between births and deaths, turned negative years ago. For several years, positive net migration stopped the overall population from declining until the (negative) natural population change eventually became larger than the population growth from migration. Countries with declining populations face a number of challenges, both economic and social. Economically, a shrinking workforce can lead to labor shortages, reduced productivity and increased pressure on social welfare systems. With fewer working-age individuals to support a growing elderly population, the financial burden on pension systems and healthcare services intensifies. Socially, a declining population can result in the depopulation of rural areas, shrinking communities and the ensuing challenges in maintaining infrastructure and public services. Addressing these issues requires comprehensive strategies. Raising the retirement age or increasing taxes/social contributions can help alleviate the financial burdens associated with a demographic imbalance. Policies to support work-life balance and affordable childcare can help slow the population decline and immigration of young, skilled workers can help address labor shortages and increase productivity. According to the latest revision of the United Nation’s World Population Prospects, many countries will face these challenges within this century if they don't already, such as the aforementioned Japan and Italy, China and South Korea, which were expected to see their first population decline in 2021. Brazil's population is expected to start declining in 2042, France's in 2049 and even India’s vast population is projected to start shrinking in 2062. Among developed nations, the United States, Canada and Australia are notable exception, with none of them currently expected to see their first population decline in the 21st century. Geographically, many African nations are still growing rapidly, resulting in a continental shift in global population that will see countries like Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia and Tanzania among the most populous nations in the world by 2100. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 22:10
Purges Of Top Tech Officials Show Cracks In China's Big Data Ambitions Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), As U.S.-China tensions escalate over tech and national security, a new wave of corruption scandals is shaking the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) big data sector, one of the regime’s most strategically important industries. The public visit Data Analysis Center during the 2017 China International Big Data Industry Expo at Guiyang International Eco-Conference Center in Guiyang, China, on May 27, 2017. Lintao Zhang/Getty Images On July 2, Chinese state media reported that Yu Shiyang, head of the Big Data Development Department at China’s State Information Center, is under investigation for “serious violations of discipline and law,” a phrase widely understood in China to mean political misconduct or corruption. In most cases, such investigations do not result in open trials. Instead, officials are often detained in secret, disappear from public view, and are quietly removed from their posts. Yu is the latest in a growing list of high-level officials in China’s data and tech sector to fall from grace. Yu, who once held a visiting scholar position at MIT, was considered a rising star in China’s digital governance sector, an unusual profile for a CCP official due to his international experience. He also served as executive deputy director of the Internet and Big Data Center under the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing’s top economic planning agency. The announcement was jointly issued by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the CCP’s top anti-corruption body, and its counterpart in Hebei Province, underscoring the political weight behind the case. Widespread Corruption at China’s Data Hub The investigation into Yu is part of a broader pattern that has plagued China’s big data sector, particularly in Guizhou Province, which the CCP has touted as a national data hub since 2016. Once hailed as China’s first national-level big data experimental zone, Guizhou signed a landmark deal in 2018 allowing a local government-backed company, Guizhou-Cloud Big Data, to partner with Apple in operating iCloud services within mainland China. However, behind the scenes, Guizhou’s data boom has become a political liability. Multiple senior officials spanning provincial data regulators, mayors, and executives at state-owned tech firms have been caught in sweeping anti-corruption probes. Notable among them is Ma Ningyu, Guizhou’s former top big data official and the original architect of the province’s digital transformation strategy. He was detained in August last year amid allegations of abusing public data resources for private gain. Projects he championed are now under scrutiny for fraudulent procurement practices. Another scandal involves Jing Yaping, who was purged on Feb. 24. Until her retirement, she led the provincial Big Data Development Bureau. She allegedly rigged bids for the Chinese regime’s IT contracts by embedding encryption watermarks in tender documents, ensuring her son-in-law’s shell company won lucrative contracts. The scheme reportedly caused a 2 billion yuan ($280 million) budget overrun. Investigators also alleged that government servers under her watch were secretly used to mine Bitcoin. Authorities discovered 327 remaining Bitcoins in the mining pool, worth around $35 million at current valuations. The discovery was particularly problematic given Beijing’s 2021 blanket ban on cryptocurrency mining, citing energy waste and financial risk. The purge shows no sign of slowing. On Feb. 26, Liu Lan, Guizhou’s deputy mayor overseeing big data, was removed from office, according to Chinese state media reports. On April 3, Yang Yunyong, head of a Guizhou provincial government-backed computing firm, was purged, and Li Gang, a former deputy director of Guizhou’s Big Data Bureau and provincial military-civil fusion office, fell under investigation on May 16. CCP’s Big Data Ambitions The fallout has raised alarm about the fragility of China’s efforts to build a global edge in artificial intelligence (AI). Big data is foundational to AI development, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping has long championed the integration of big data, artificial intelligence, and traditional industries since 2022. On June 26, RAND Corporation, an influential American defense and policy think tank [ZH: also absolute dicks], warned that Beijing sees data as a strategic asset in its bid to become a dominant world power in the field of AI. China’s local governments have launched so-called “data marketplaces” that allow state agencies and companies to trade datasets. These platforms aim to standardize and commercialize data exchange between state and private entities, fueling AI development without formal data ownership transfer. The goal is to build up AI capabilities by widening access to large-scale training data. In addition, big data is critical in the CCP’s attempts at foreign influence and espionage. Last year, Canadian intelligence chief Daniel Rogers raised national security concerns over China’s use of big data to carry out foreign interference activities. He specifically named the data held by TikTok as potentially being capable of ending up in the hands of the CCP. The CCP also seeks to acquire and exploit big data for its military use. The U.S. State Department states on its website that China wants to become the first nation to transition to “intelligence warfare” via military-civil fusion, a strategy that includes theft to acquire advanced technologies, which include big data. With top officials in Beijing’s data apparatus falling in rapid succession, the CCP’s ambitions for digital dominance may be unraveling from within. Tang Bing contributed to this report. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 21:45
China Could Push Russia To Attack NATO Member In Taiwan Distraction Ploy: Rutte In the scenario that China might one day invade Taiwan, Beijing will enlist Russia's help to tie up NATO forces in Europe, according to a prediction by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Rutte, in a fresh interview with The New York Times, engaged in a rare bit of public speculation and grand strategy chessboard gaming regarding potential future moves by the two nuclear armed powers who have struck an "unlimited partnership" of the last few years. He described that if China made a move against Taiwan, President Xi Jinping "would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this" - in reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This isn't the first time that Rutte has branded Putin the Chinese president's subordinate in public remarks, in something clearly meant as a jab at Moscow and aimed at belittling the Russian leader. In such a development, Xi would tell the Kremlin leader that Russia needs to "keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory," Rutte said. "That is most likely the way this will progress," he added, in an interview where he generally heaped a lot of praise on President Trump, including in the following: "The American administration completely takes the view and shares it with the Europeans that this war in Ukraine is crucial for the defense of NATO territory going forward and that we have to make sure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position to stop the Russians from taking more territory, and that when it comes to a cease-fire or, even better, a peace deal, that Ukraine with some help will be able to prevent Putin from ever attacking Ukraine again in the future." One end result of Trump putting pressure on Europe to take a stronger and more lead role in shouldering the common defense burden is that "The Europeans have now cobbled together $35 billion in military aid this year to deliver to Ukraine, which is more than last year." He said this came alongside the US expecting Europeans to "take more of the burden when it comes to the concrete support to Ukraine." Watch the part of the interview where Rutte assumes China and Russia will coordinate action related to future moves on Taiwan: NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte says if Xi Jinping decides to attack Taiwan, he'll call up his "junior partner" Putin and tell him to "keep them busy in Europe" by simultaneously attacking NATO territory. Rutte suggests this is one reason why Trump is so supportive of NATO pic.twitter.com/zsu1hlmJW7 July 6, 2025 One additional area where Rutte praised Trump is on breaking the "deadlock" with Putin. "He is the one who broke the deadlock with Putin. When he became president in January, he started these discussions with Putin, and he was the only one who was able to do this," the NATO chief described. "This had to happen. A direct dialogue between the American president and the president of the Russian Federation," he added. But Rutte also acknowledged that this has stopped progressing of late. As for the Moscow-Beijing relationship, he is likely assuming too much in terms of closeness between these longtime, historic rivals turned 'friends'. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 21:20
Walmart, Amazon Truck Depots Display Multilingual Signs, Raising Alarms Over Migrant Drivers With No English Submitted by American Truckers United, In the shadow of record profits and centi-billion dollar valuations, the American trucker is being pushed further to the sidelines - not by automation or fuel prices, but by corporate betrayal. Walmart and Amazon — icons of "American" capitalism — are now placing signs at their distribution centers in foreign languages to accommodate an influx of non-domiciled, non-citizen truck drivers. Don't be fooled… this isn't about inclusion, it's about replacing those more expensive American truck drivers. Truck driving, once a blue-collar backbone of American prosperity, is being hollowed out in favor of cheap, foreign labor. Mega-corporations and their subcontractors are exploiting loopholes to flood the industry with drivers on work visas or temporary permits, often lacking any form of training to U.S. safety standards or language requirements. Safety and sovereignty are both being sacrificed at the altar of higher earnings per share. Donald Trump's Executive Order demanding English Language Proficiency (ELP) enforcement for commercial drivers wasn't just common sense — it was a line in the sand. You drive on American highways? You speak the language. Period. Likewise, Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy, sounded the alarm on the abuse of non-domiciled CDLs — licenses issued by states to foreign nationals who may never permanently reside in the U.S. These are not minor regulatory gaps. They're open floodgates, and big retail is swimming through them with glee… they even have the signs to prove it! This is more than a labor dispute. It's a cultural and economic affront to every American trucker who played by the rules, paid their dues, and built this country mile by mile… "Covid's heroes" they once claimed… mega-corporation's collateral damage just a few short years later. The real "supply chain crisis" isn't the worry of shelves running empty… it is what power that big retail will continue to build if they continue their pillage of American Truck drivers and companies while handing our national security interests/domestic supply chain to non-citizens. * * * ZeroHedge Take: Under federal law, non-domiciled CDL (Commercial Driver's License) holders are required to understand and communicate in English. Yet, as the signage at Walmart distribution hubs and other major trucking depots reveals, instructions are now posted in foreign languages — a quiet admission that many of these unvetted migrant drivers don't speak English. This is a growing public safety threat. Tens of thousands of non-domiciled drivers, some with questionable training and zero English proficiency, are now behind the wheel of 80,000-pound steel missiles barreling down U.S. highways. Related: English Trucking Rule Takes Effect, Federal Probe Begins Of Sanctuary State Migrant CDL Pipeline Letter Urges Transportation Sec. Duffy To Ban Foreign CDLs Amid Series Of Highway Crashes Biden Handed Out CDLs Like Candy... Now U.S. Highways Are A Public Safety & National Security Nightmare Highway Mayhem: Trucker From Sanctuary State Illinois Arrested After Baltimore Shooting Spree Rolling Risk: Unvetted Migrants Behind The Wheel Of Big Rigs Threaten U.S. Safety & Security Advocacy Group Calls For US Probe On Non-English Speaking Migrant Truck Drivers After Deadly Austin Crash Washington may be asleep at the wheel, but the threat is very much real. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 20:55
China Smartphone Sales Plunge In May; Device Camera Counts Peak The latest data from Goldman Sachs shows smartphone shipments in China plunged 21% year-over-year in May to 23 million units. While shipments ticked up 1% month-over-month, they remain under pressure due to a high base effect from 2024, a particularly strong year in shipments. Cumulatively, shipments are down 5% year-to-date through May. China's smartphone market in May Smartphone shipments in China were -21% YoY to 23m units in May vs. -2% YoY in Apr 2025, per MIIT. The number of new smartphone models launched in China was -27% YoY to 27 models in May 2025 vs. +14% YoY to 32 models in Apr 2025, per MIIT. "For cameras, the number of cameras per phone peaked in 2022 at 3.8 cameras and was down to 3.3/ 3.1 cameras in 2024/ 2025 YTD; however, 20MPx+ penetration increased to 52%/ 51% in 2024/ 2025 YTD (vs. 39%/ 31% in 2023/22), in line with our view of camera specification upgrades for China smartphones," the team of analysts led by Allen Chang told clients over the weekend. The 5G segment demonstrated relative strength, with shipments increasing 7% from April to 21 million units, representing an 89% market penetration rate. However, the number of new 5G models launched plunged 52% year-over-year to just 13. Key China smartphone data in May (China 5G phone market in May): 5G phone shipments in China came in at 21m units in May, +7% MoM, -17% YoY, with a 89% penetration rate, per MIIT. The number of new 5G smartphone models launched in China was -52% YoY to 13 models in May 2025 vs. -14% YoY to 19 models in Apr 2025, per MIIT. Visualizing China's Smartphone Market In A Series Of Charts Smartphone Pipeline Chang forecasts shipment declines of 4% in Q2 and 2% in Q3, but highlights ongoing upgrades in hardware specifications and a shift toward premium models. The analysts are "Buy" rated Hon Hai, AAC, Largan, Luxshare, SZS, Fositek, BYDE, Transsion, Will Semi, MediaTek, and TSMC. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 20:30
"Troops Could Vanish Like Squid": New Bio-Inspired Camo Lets US Soldiers Evade Sight And High-Tech Sensors Instantly Authored by Eirwen Williams via the Sustainability Times, The fusion of biology and technology continues to break new ground, as seen in a remarkable project funded by DARPA and the Air Force. By leveraging the natural abilities of cephalopods, particularly the squid, researchers are developing advanced camouflage technology for military applications. Illustration of squid-inspired camouflage technology for military applications. Image generated by AI. This bio-inspired innovation promises to revolutionize how soldiers hide in plain sight, adapting to various environments by mimicking the squid’s adaptive skin. Such breakthroughs not only highlight the potential of bioinspired materials but also reinforce the crucial role of interdisciplinary research in defense and technology. The Science Behind Squid-Inspired Camouflage At the heart of this innovative research is the study of squid skin, particularly the light-reflecting cells known as iridophores. Researchers at the University of California, Irvine, in collaboration with the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, have delved into the unique cellular structures of the longfin inshore squid. These iridophores contain tightly coiled columns of a protein called reflectin. These proteins act like natural Bragg reflectors, enabling the squid to change colors rapidly and efficiently. Through advanced imaging techniques such as holotomography, scientists have captured detailed three-dimensional views of these cells, revealing how the columns of reflectin twist and organize themselves to manipulate light. This ability allows the squid to transition from being transparent to displaying vibrant colors, a mechanism that could be pivotal in developing materials that mimic these changes for military use. Engineering Bio-Inspired Materials for Defense Building on the understanding of these biological structures, researchers have engineered a flexible composite material that replicates and even extends the optical capabilities of squid skin. This material combines the nanostructured Bragg reflectors with ultrathin metal films to enhance control over infrared light. Such a composite can adjust its appearance across both visible and infrared spectrums, making it an ideal candidate for adaptive camouflage and other advanced applications. By responding to environmental stimuli, such as changes in light or physical manipulation like stretching and bending, the material can dynamically alter its properties. This adaptability opens doors to a range of applications beyond military use, including smart textiles and thermal-management systems. The scalability of the fabrication techniques used also means that these materials can be produced on a larger scale, potentially transforming industries beyond defense. “Concrete That Heals Itself”: Scientists Create Lichen-Inspired Material That Uses Microbes to Seal Cracks Automatically Potential Beyond Camouflage This breakthrough in biomimicry extends beyond just camouflage. The principles used to develop these materials could enhance a variety of other technologies. The design concepts drawn from cephalopods may improve devices like lasers, fiber-optic filters, photovoltaic coatings, and chemical sensors. The ability to fine-tune optical properties dynamically is a game-changer for these applications, offering new levels of precision and control. As researchers continue to explore the possibilities, the full potential of cephalopod-inspired optics is yet to be realized. The work conducted at UC Irvine and its collaborators exemplifies how nature can inspire cutting-edge technological advancements, pushing the boundaries of what is possible in material science and engineering. Challenges and Future Directions Despite the promising outcomes, challenges remain in bringing these technologies to practical applications. Issues such as cost, durability, and integration into existing systems must be addressed. Moreover, ethical considerations regarding the use of such technology in defense and surveillance need careful evaluation. Looking forward, researchers aim to refine these bio-inspired materials, optimizing them for real-world applications. The interdisciplinary nature of this research, combining biology, engineering, and material science, underscores the importance of collaboration in solving complex problems. As we continue to draw inspiration from the natural world, the question remains: how will these innovations shape the future of technology and defense? As this research progresses, the implications extend beyond the military, potentially influencing various industries and everyday life. The integration of biological insights into technological advancements poses a thought-provoking question: how far can we push the boundaries of biomimicry, and what ethical considerations will arise as we increasingly blur the lines between nature and technology? Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 20:05
How Much Revenue Do Tech Giants Earn Per Employee? Which tech companies are generating the most profit per employee? In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualized 22 major tech companies by revenue per employee in 2024, highlighting the efficiency of business models that monetize user-generated content. The data for this visualization comes from Multiples. Revenue per Employee Leaders OnlyFans, Valve, and YouTube are the top three leaders in this dataset. All three are digital platforms that have successfully scaled up with a relatively small workforce. OnlyFans has 51-200 employees according to LinkedIn, while Valve operates Steam, the world’s largest PC gaming platform, with a workforce of just 350 people. YouTube has the largest headcount of the three, with 7,173 employees as of January 2024. By leveraging user-generated content (OnlyFans and YouTube) or digital distribution strategies (Valve), these companies differ from traditional companies that rely on labor-intensive operations. The Origins of OnlyFans OnlyFans was founded in 2016 by British entrepreneur Tim Stokely as a subscription-based platform where creators could monetize content directly from fans, initially targeting fitness influencers and lifestyle personalities. The platform’s growth accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, and has become extremely popular in the adult entertainment industry. In 2018, Stokely sold 75% of OnlyFans’ parent company to Ukranian-American billionaire Leonid Radvinsky, and later stepped down as its CEO in 2021. If you enjoyed today’s post, check out America’s Top 25 Companies by Revenue on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 19:40
Oil Closes At Session High As Houthi Rebels Hit Second Greek Vessel In Red Sea By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com A Greek-operated bulk carrier was attacked in the Red Sea on Monday in the second Houthi strike on commercial shipping in less than 24 hours, stoking fears of a renewed escalation in one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors, Arab and Israel media report. The Eternity C, a Liberia-flagged vessel managed by Athens-based Cosmoship, was hit off Yemen’s Hodeidah coast using a combination of sea drones, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms. Two seafarers were seriously injured and two more are missing, according to shipping intelligence sources cited by media. The vessel was reportedly en route to Iran with a cargo of steel. The attack follows Sunday’s strike on the Magic Seas, another Greek-managed bulk carrier. Houthi militants claim the Magic Seas has sunk. That vessel was hit southwest of Hodeidah and its crew abandoned ship before rescue. Both ships are Liberia-flagged, and neither was carrying Israeli cargo, according to tracking data. Shortly after the second attack, on Monday at 3:31 p.m. ET, Brent crude was trading up 2.08% at $69.72, near session high, while WTI was trading up 2.39% at $68.09; both ignored the weekend's bigger than expected OPEC+ output increase. Insurance premiums for vessels crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait have already increased, with underwriters signaling more exclusions are likely in coming days. The renewed Red Sea volatility comes as Axios reports that Israeli officials believe Donald Trump would authorize pre-emptive military action against Iran’s nuclear program if he returns to office. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to raise the issue during a closed-door dinner with Trump this week. Tehran has restarted centrifuge operations at key enrichment sites, setting off fresh alarm in Tel Aviv. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 19:15
Jane Street & The Regulatory "Risk" In Risk-Reversals Via SpotGamma Substack, Days ago India barred Jane Street (JSG) from its security market, citing manipulation of markets. TLDR: We think JSG knew options skews could be heavily distorted, and traded large options positions trying to take advantage of the distortion. Additionally - a disclaimer: We have no idea what really happened, and we did our best to accurately quote from the SEBI & other documents. We have no idea if anyone is guilty of anything, nor are we alleging that. If anything in here is incorrect, we will do our best to update the post. The Indian regulatory body, SEBI, launched the investigation “Based on media reports titled ‘Jane Street-Millennium Suit: ‘Secret’ Strategy Concerns India, Hearing Reveals’ and ‘Ex-Jane Street trader pillories claims he stole trade secrets’, published during April 2024 wherein it was inter-alia mentioned that Jane Street and its associated entities alleged unauthorised use of their proprietary trading strategies in Indian options markets…” This recent banning was related to a 2024 regulatory investigation (and warning to JSG) into short-dated index options trading. After that ‘24 investigation, SEBI, India’s market regulator, accused Jane Street of manipulating the BANKNIFTY index on expiry day using aggressive futures flow and deeply skewed 0DTE option structures — a strategy that mirrors the same tactics Jane Street would later allege were stolen in its U.S. lawsuit against Millennium (more on this later) Critical to this, understand that Jane Street is/was not a registered market-maker in India’s options market. But according to SEBI’s 2024 interim order, they behaved like the most aggressive one in the room. SEBI found that the Jane Street Group ("JSG") ran the single largest risk-adjusted book on BANKNIFTY index expiry days. One day stood out above the rest: January 17, 2024. On element left from the report was that the day before, January 16, BANKNIFTY fell more than 4% following disappointing earnings from HDFC Bank. The January 17 session opened lower again — creating a setup where options prices were likely skewed to the extremes. On Jan 17 SEBI estimates JSG made ₹662 crore (~$79M USD) that day using what they call an "Intraday Index Manipulation" strategy. The allegation? That Jane Street pushed BANKNIFTY higher in the morning by aggressively buying stocks and futures, built massive short-delta positions in 0DTE options while the index was artificially elevated, and then sold their equities to drive the index lower and monetize the short-delta. This is also the depiction you hear on social media. But, as with most things, there is way more nuance. Both the equities market and the options market opened at 9:15 AM IST. Jane Street began executing its strategy immediately. From 9:15 to 11:45 AM, JSG bought ₹4,370 crore ($525M) of BANKNIFTY futures and stocks. This alone accounted for 15–25% of total traded value in those names. Simultaneously, they shorted delta* to the tune of ₹32,115 crore ($3.9B) via 0DTE options — selling calls and buying puts. In plain terms, Jane Street put on a massive intraday risk reversal by selling same day expiration (a.k.a. 0DTE) at-the-money (ATM) calls vs ATM puts. *As we noted before, the BANKNIFTY was down 4% the prior day, and was opening ~1% lower on the morning of the 17th. This is critical to understand, because they SEBI report goes to great lengths to detail the alleged delta exposure that JSG carried. With great respect to the regulator, we think that depicting accurate deltas into wild vols/skews is rather difficult. I suspect that Jane Street likely anticipated that volatility skew would be heavily mispriced at the open, potentially due to the prior day's steep index decline. When the market opened, they bought futures and stock simultaneously against extremely skewed options — selling richly priced calls and buying heavily discounted puts. This structure effectively established risk reversals vs long futures to exploit the skew differential. Initially, the position may have been close to delta-neutral — designed not for directionality, but to mine the skew. This is likely why they were buying stock (positive delta trades) and futures as they were entering into risk reversals (negative delta trades). Further, as the day progressed and the skew normalized, Jane Street ceased additional accumulation (per charts below). What made the setup unique was the sheer distortion in option pricing. At 9:15 AM, spot BANKNIFTY was trading at 46,814. The 46,800 ATM call was priced at ₹653.45 (blue); the ATM put, just ₹123.55 (red). While we have not studied Indian options prices before, one would expect ATM calls and puts to have much more similar prices. This inverted skew suggests calls were extremely rich vs puts, a perfect setup for the trade JSG implemented. By day’s end, that call expired nearly worthless (₹0.65), while put values exploded. This is a clear breakdown of put-call parity, one that SEBI argues was engineered by Jane Street itself. Their aggressive equity buying misled other participants and skewed IV pricing, particularly in the ATM strikes, allowing JSG to put on the risk reversal at an extreme edge. SEBI writes: “Participants in index options markets [were] misled by the support for BANKNIFTY.” The strategy was not just delta directional — it was vol- and skew-sensitive. Jane Street created short-term realized vol and harvested convexity on both sides. Notably, option volumes themselves appeared to collapse once the skew normalized. The SEBI states that JSG’s flow was the primary driver of the distorted vol surface that they were mining. We think this is the critical piece which the argument rotates around - did they knowing create this skew or was it the result of market volatility? By 11:47 AM, Jane Street began unwinding their long equity exposure as you can see above (bottom 2 bar plots). At this same time, the options volume dies out (center plot). SEBI notes that their selling was again aggressive and concentrated in BANKNIFTY components, disproportionately moving the index lower and inflating the value of their long puts. They reportedly closed some positions, letting others expire ITM. Though they booked losses on equities, the options PnL overwhelmed it. SEBI estimates a ₹662 crore net profit. This apparently wasn't a one-off. SEBI identified 15 other days using this same blueprint, plus 3 additional instances where Jane Street employed a variant: the "Extended Marking the Close" strategy. This involved building large delta positions in options during the day, followed by an aggressive equity ramp or selloff into the expiry window to influence the settlement print. How Does the Jane Street Millennium Lawsuit Tie In? In April 2024, Jane Street sued Millennium and two former traders, alleging misappropriation of a confidential strategy. The complaint describes an SPX-based strategy developed over six years, involving: Identification of latent market inefficiencies Use of intra-day models and machine-learning-driven heuristics "Expensive investigative trades" to test signal robustness A framework to predict directional bias based on a fusion of signal inputs and execution behavior Jane Street claims this strategy was unique and counterintuitive, and that its IP centered on exploiting subtle, repeatable intraday price dynamics. Internal chat logs cited in the complaint show the strategy was so profitable they considered hiding it from internal PnL tallies to avoid attracting attention. Jane Street alleges that immediately after the traders joined Millennium, a new competitor began mirroring their trades via the same broker infrastructure, including specific order types and risk throttles. The broker even paused execution due to the similarity in patterns. Jane Street's own profits reportedly collapsed concurrently. The Millennium lawsuit makes the BANKNIFTY trades even more revealing. According to Jane Street’s own complaint, their core strategy was explicitly designed to detect and trade on skewed volatility surfaces. It wasn’t just about forecasting direction — it was about identifying mispriced convexity and exploiting it through engineered flow. The “expensive investigative trades” described in the lawsuit align almost perfectly with the behavior SEBI observed in India: buying up underlying stocks to shift implied vols, then harvesting the reversion through options. In both cases, infrastructure mattered — Jane Street touted proprietary execution pipelines, broker logic, and near-automated rebalancing. The precision seen on January 17 — with flow ramping at open, peaking by 11:45, and reversing in size — fits the exact framework Jane Street claimed was stolen. If Jane Street had a strategy designed to weaponize short-term volatility dislocations using index-linked options and coordinated flows in the underlying, SEBI’s findings suggest it was indeed deployed. Subscribe to SpotGamma's high frequency expert options analysis here... Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 18:25
Syria Wants Lebanon's Tripoli In Swap For Israel-Held Golan Heights Amid ongoing talks with Israel, Syria's new Islamist-led government is considering a scenario in which it would relinquish claims to most of the Golan Heights to Israel, in exchange for carving the city of Tripoli and surrounding territory out of Lebanon and making it part of Syria. The development was first reported by Israel's i24News, which didn't address the question of how Israel would have any authority to trade another country's territory. Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967's Six-Day War and annexed it in 1981. In 2019, the Trump administration became the first country to recognize Israel's sovereignty over the 700 square miles of strategically-important land. Six years later, the United States still stands alone in doing so, as Israel's annexation is widely seen as a violation of international law and the United Nations charter. Following Assad's collapse, the Israeli army raced into Syria and seized what had been a demilitarized, UN-monitored "buffer zone" under a 1974 ceasefire agreement, and also ventured beyond it. Israel did so despite assurances from the new Syrian government's assurance that it would honor the 1974 agreement. Other violations of Syrian territory has been part of the Israeli routine for years, with periodic bombings that have continued after the fall of Assad. Now, the two governments are engaged in what an Israeli official characterizes as "advanced talks" on a bilateral security agreement. According to a source close to President Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria is demanding that Israel part with at least a portion of the Golan Heights, and has thrown two scenarios on the table: Scenario 1: Israel would retain strategic areas in the Golan Heights equivalent to one-third of its territory, hand over a third to Syria, and lease another third from Syria for a period of 25 years. Scenario 2: Israel keeps two-thirds of the Golan Heights, and hands over the remaining third to Syria, with the possibility of its lease. Under this scenario, the Lebanese city of Tripoli, close to the Lebanese-Syrian border, and possibly other Lebanese territories in the north of the country and the Beqaa Valley, would be handed over to Syria. -i24News. In May, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted President Trump and new Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa (White House photo) "There is no such thing as peace for free," said the Syrian government source, adding some concession by Israel on the Golan Heights is essential to al-Sharaa from the perspective of domestic politics: "Al-Sharaa would likely face significant internal resistance should he fail to [secure the return of some territory]." In addition to the port city of Tripoli, Syria is angling to take over surrounding Sunni-dominated Lebanese territory. According to one analysis, here's how Lebanon's population breaks down along religious lines: 32% Shia Muslim, 31% Sunni Muslim, 31% Christian and 6% Druze Muslim. However, Tripoli is something on the order of 81% Sunni Muslim. The city and surrounding territory were removed from Syria when the state of Lebanon was formed by France in 1920, following the fall of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Tripoli is Lebanon's second-largest city with a population of about 229,000, and is home to an important seaport. Tripoli is Lebanon's second-largest city, and began as a Phoenician colony in the 8th or 9th century BC The idea of a swath of Lebanon being carved off and handed over to an extremist government dominated by members of an al-Qaeda offshoot is certain to raise eyebrows -- most of all, because Lebanon is not a party to the discussions. While the Lebanese government has yet to issue a statement about the report, Ashraf Rifi, a member of the Lebanese parliament who represents Tripoli, dismissed the idea, telling the state-run National News Agency: "Syria is not giving up the Golan, and it is not engaging in any barter. Al-Fayhaa [a union of municipalities that includes Tripoli, Mina and Baddawi] is Lebanese, Lebanese, Lebanese — Tripoli is Lebanese and proud of its identity. The 10,452 square kilometers [of Lebanon] constitute a final homeland for us and all its people. Period.” We'll have to see if the State of Israel somehow manages to have the last word on Tripoli's future. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 18:00
Doctor Faces 35 Years In Prison For Issuing COVID-19 Cards To No-Vax Patients Via Died Suddenly on X, Vero Beach, Fla. - Utah plastic surgeon Dr. Kirk Moore is facing thirty five years in federal prison for destroying thousands of vials of COVID-19 vaccine, giving his patients vaccine cards without taking the shots, and injecting saline into children whose parents wanted them to believe they got vaccinated without risking the deadly side effects. Dr. Michael Kirk Moore Jr., 58, who operates his practice Plastic Surgery Institute of Utah, Inc. in Salt Lake County, Utah, begins his trial on Monday, July 7, 2025, at the Orrin G. Hatch U.S. Courthouse, located at 351 S. West Temple, Salt Lake City, Utah. As of this writing, a 'GiveSendGo' donation campaign for him is at just under $140,000 A rally that day at the steps of the courthouse at 350 South Maine Street, Salt Lake City, UT, is being organized by We Are The People Utah and will include veterans of the health freedom movement, such as vaccine safety activist Robert Scott Bell, as well as the team that produced the film Died Suddenly, Dr. Moore’s son Michael, Jason Preston, host of the organizing group, and Mike Schultz, the speaker Utah’s House of Representatives Countless other prominent figures in the MAHA sphere, such as Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, will be joining online to stand with Dr. Moore. Follow @DiedSuddenly_ on X for updates over the next three weeks as the trial progresses. The charges against Dr. Moore were filled in 2023 by the Department of Justice under Joe Biden, and have not been dropped yet by President Trump’s Attorney General Pam Bondi. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has not formally intervened, despite his agency’s Inspector General’s involvement, but did publicly expressed his support in April of this year, saying on his government verified X account, “Dr. Moore deserves a medal for his courage and commitment to healing.” Officially, Dr. Moore and his co-defendant, are being charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States; conspiracy to convert, sell, convey, and dispose of government property; and conversion, sale, conveyance, and disposal of government property and aiding and abetting. The “government property” being referred to is $28,028.50 worth of “government-provided COVID-19 vaccines”, also referred to by Pfizer as “government prototypes” due to their experimental, untested, and dangerous nature. Dr. Moore is also accused of specifically distributing at least 1,937 “fraudulently completed vaccination record cards” to his patients, none of which are testifying for or against him in this case, and also administering saline shots to some of their kids, admitted by the DOJ to have been carried out with the full knowledge and consent of their parents, so their children would actually believe and act as if they were vaccinated, and not have to lie to live a normal life with their friends amidst the pandemic mandates and madness. Dr. Moore was even arrested initially when the charges were made official in 2023. “In a blatant act of intimidation and punitive cruelty, Dr. Moore was arrested and incarcerated for 22 days—isolated for 22 hours each day—merely for attempting to communicate essential court information to co-defendants,” Dr. Margaret Aranda, who has followed the case closely, said on Substack. “Kirk Moore offered his patients a choice when others wouldn’t,” Dr. Bowden said of the doctors couregaous stand. “He received no compensation for his care and has paid a tremendous price for honoring his patients’ fundamental right to bodily autonomy.” Despite the aggressive and nastily toned characterization of Dr. Moore by the DOJ, he has no criminal record, is a devoted father raising two children alone after tragically losing his ex-wife to suicide in 2019, and is a decorated U.S. Navy Flight Surgeon who has tirelessly cared for patients throughout his career. “Amid the COVID-19 crisis, he courageously provided free medical care to those in need, making house calls and offering essential treatments without compensation,” Dr. Margaret Aranda said on Substack. “The individuals who turned to Dr. Moore did not do so lightly, nor did they seek refuge merely for convenience or leisure. These were men and women whose fundamental constitutional rights to medical autonomy were being compromised. They faced profound and life-altering threats: military personnel urgently seeking help as they faced imminent deployment—being unjustly threatened with court martial unless vaccinated; brave individuals who, within hours of seeing Dr. Moore, would leave to defend our nation’s freedom. Others were desperately awaiting life-saving organ transplants, yet cruelly denied these procedures due solely to their vaccination status, forced into a devastating choice between their beliefs and their very lives.” “Dr. Moore provided these individuals with a chance to uphold their deeply held personal convictions while safeguarding their futures,” Dr. Aranda pointedly concluded. The U.S. government team, previously headed by Biden-appointed prosecutor U.S. Attorney Trina A. Higgins, is now being overseen by Felice John Viti, Acting-U.S. Attorney for the District of Utah, who previously served on the Counterterrorism Section of the National Security Division and has investigated terrorists in war zones for most of his career. And prepare for war is exactly what the U.S. did in this case, involving everything short of the DOD, such as the Office of Inspector General, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS-OIG), Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) division and the FBI. This war footing has also had a chilling effect on the courtroom and the overseeing justice, Judge Howard C. Nielson, Jr., a Trump appointee in 2017 and former member of the Federalist Society, who has instructed the jury and opposing councils to not mention vaccines, covid-19, alleged “medical misinformation” and other details about Dr. Moore’s intentions and safety concerns, because it may “poison the jury pool.” “Shockingly, the prosecution has moved to deny Dr. Moore and his co-defendants their fundamental right to present a necessity defense—an essential opportunity to demonstrate that their actions were taken in good faith to prevent greater harm,” Dr. Aranda said. “Furthermore, the prosecution seeks to exclude testimony from patients harmed by COVID-19 vaccines, silencing crucial voices and denying the jury critical context. Such actions suggest not justice, but an orchestrated attempt to suppress evidence that might validate Dr. Moore’s ethically driven decisions.” Dr. Moore is also under surveillance by the Trump DOJ. “When they threw me in jail for contacting my co-defendant one of the further restrictions that I had for pre-trial release was only to communicate via text message and email,” Dr. Moore told this reporter. “I had sent them a message on Signal. They thought I was trying to hide communications. They put monitoring on my phones.” If you’d like to hear directly from Dr. Moore about his case and defense, watch his interview here on X with the Died Suddenly team, one of his last before the beginning of the trial. (or Rumble here) Due to the case being held in Federal court and not State, no livestream or recordings will be available throughout the trial, and unless you are physically in the courtroom, or part of the defense or prosecution teams, the public will not have timely access to developments or transcripts. Because of this, the Died Suddenly team is closely considering attending the trial in person as court reporters, to provide crucial updates for the American people, whose liberties are truly on trial in this case. “Before Fauci, before any pharmaceutical company, the U.S. government chose to prosecute a doctor that honored his oath, to do no harm to his patients,” Matthew Skow, the award winning film maker of Died Suddenly and partner of Gateway Studios, said after learning the details of Dr. Moore’s case. The line team of prosecutors are led by Todd Bouton, a former federal judge, who joined the DOJ at the height of the pandemic to pursue COVID-related and healthcare fraud, and his assistants are Jacob Strain, and Special Assistant U.S. Attorney Sachiko Jepson. Constitutional Attorney Jonathan W. Emord says the case is a prime opportunity for dismissal, and if convicted, President Trump should at the minimum consider pardoning Dr. Moore, especially based on his past statements, criticizing COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccination mandates, often framing them as overreaches of government authority or threats to personal freedom. “The left wing lunatics are trying very hard to bring back COVID lockdowns and mandates with all of their sudden fearmongering about the new variants that are coming,” President Trump said in a campaign video before the 2024 election, condemning the same tyrannical henchmen now gathering against Dr. Moore. “They want to restart the COVID hysteria so they can justify more lockdowns, more censorship, more illegal dropboxes, more mail-in ballots and trillions of dollars in payoffs to their political allies.” “Every COVID tyrant who wants to take away our freedom,” President Trump said, addressing those who sought to mandate the same Covid-19 vaccines that Dr. Moore refused to administer to patients. “Hear these words: We will not comply. So don't even think about it. We will not shut down our schools. We will not accept your lockdowns. We will not abide by your mask mandates and we will not tolerate your vaccine mandates.” You can watch President Trump’s statement here for yourself. President Trump’s words and Dr. Moore’s actions are only further justified by the FDA’s decision to add a new safety warning label to all mRNA COVID vaccines, stating the extremely high risk of Myocarditis and long term Heart Effects in young men who take the shots and boosters. The Hippocratic Oath that all doctors ascribe to, and Dr. Moore was following, says to prescribe only beneficial treatments, according to his abilities and judgment; to refrain from causing harm or hurt; and to live an exemplary personal and professional life. If the shots now officially cause myocarditis, wouldn’t refraining from administering them according to one’s judgment, be refraining from causing harm or hurt, and be the best example of living an exemplary personal and professional life? You can submit public comment by calling DOJ Public Affairs Specialist Felicia Martinez at (801) 325-3237 or email at Felicia.martinez@usdoj.gov Please share this article with your doctor, your friends, and your family. This case is proof the pandemic madness is not over, and if this trial is allowed to continue and result in the unjust conviction of Dr. Moore, no doctor, patient, or parent is safe to live their conscience and by common sense in the United States of America. Join us with the battle cry: “No Moore Tyranny” Support Dr. Moore’s legal fight by donating here. This report was produced by investigative journalist Edward Szall, a producer with the Died Suddenly team. If you have any tips, information, or comment please post below, or email me at Edward.r.szall@gmail.com If you enjoyed this report and others posted by the team, consider supporting our latest film project, Died Suddenly 2: Nano Sapiens, at DS2NANO.COM Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 17:40
"Runaway Spending": Canada on Track for $92 Billion Deficit, Think Tank Projects The federal government is on pace to post a $92-billion deficit this fiscal year — nearly double what was projected just four months ago, according to a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute. If accurate, it would mark the second-largest deficit in Canadian history, trailing only the $327.7-billion shortfall of 2020-21 during the pandemic, according to National Post. “The picture is definitely not pretty,” said Alexandre Laurin, C.D. Howe’s vice-president, who co-authored the report with William Robson and Don Drummond. The think tank now forecasts annual deficits of over $77 billion for the next four years, far higher than the government’s projections in its most recent budget — which is now more than a year old. The report criticizes the government’s delay in tabling a new budget, saying, “Delaying a budget until the fiscal year is more than half over is never good, but Canada’s current high-spending trajectory makes this delay especially bad.” National Post writes C.D. Howe attributes the worsening outlook to rising defence spending, Trump-era tariffs, tax cuts, and the scrapped digital services tax. It also questions whether promised revenue boosts from fines, penalties, and savings will materialize. The report notes Ottawa is making major fiscal commitments without disclosing key figures, including the expected tax intake, spending levels, and future interest payments. “Ottawa is making costly commitments… without showing key numbers to the public,” it warns. “It is widely accepted that Canada’s economy is at a critical crossroads,” the authors write. “So are Canada’s finances – beyond the economic drag of high deficits and rising debt, it is unfair to pass these burdens on to the current young and future generations.” In contrast, the Parliamentary Budget Officer had projected in March that the federal deficit would shrink to $50.1 billion this year, with continued improvements in future years — assuming no major new spending or tax cuts. C.D. Howe recommends the government cut operating costs, abandon some costly platform promises, consider increasing less harmful taxes like the GST, and reduce federal transfers. It also rejects Ottawa’s plan to separate operating and capital budgets: “The large deficits projected in this update cannot be downplayed or disguised by dividing the budget into two new categories.” The report concludes that greater transparency is essential: “The government must improve its accountability by sharing its revenue and spending figures with taxpayers.” Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 17:20
US Insurers Are Refusing To Cover Climate-Change Risk-Zones Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com, U.S. insurers are rapidly pulling coverage from homes in high-risk climate zones, particularly in California, Florida, and North Carolina. Millions of homeowners are facing nonrenewals, impacting their ability to secure mortgages and causing housing market instability. Government and local efforts are underway to mitigate risks and persuade insurers to continue coverage, but significant gaps remain. As countries worldwide experience more regular extreme weather events, insurers have become more reluctant to cover properties in high-risk areas. However, without insurance, it is impossible for many people to gain access to mortgage financing. We are seeing an insurance crisis in the United States, as insurers are becoming less likely to offer coverage for homes in certain areas, particularly those that have experienced natural disasters, such as flooding and wildfire, in recent years. Between 2018 and December 2024, over 1.9 million home insurance contracts were “nonrenewed”, meaning they came to an end. The nonrenewal rate tripled or more in over 200 U.S. counties, according to a congressional report. These figures became clear following an investigation spurred by the Senate Budget Committee, which demanded in November 2023 that the largest U.S. insurance companies provide the number of nonrenewals by county and year. Some states and cities are seeing greater nonrenewal rates than others, particularly those at greater risk of fire, flood, hurricanes and other severe weather events. Although there is still a lack of information on the reason behind the nonrenewals, the countrywide map of nonrenewals strongly reflects the climate crisis as it is being seen across the U.S. Some of the areas most affected include California, Florida, and North Carolina. Following the publication of the report, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said, “The climate crisis that is coming our way is not just about polar bears, and it’s not just about green jobs.” Whitehouse added, “It actually is coming through your mail slot, in the form of insurance cancellations, insurance nonrenewals and dramatic increases in insurance costs.” According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in 2024, there were 27 individual weather and climate disasters, coming only behind the record-setting 28 events in 2023. Last year was the fourth-costliest year on record in terms of these types of events, with a total cost of approximately $182.7 billion, coming after 2017 ($395.9 billion), 2005 ($268.5 billion), and 2022 ($183.6 billion). The 2024 weather events included storms, wildfires, droughts, flooding, tornadoes, tropical cyclones and other types of extreme weather. In addition to considering which areas are “high risk”, insurers also assess the building materials used for construction. Many mobile or manufactured homes are not covered by insurers. Companies may also impose restrictions on houses constructed out of wood and other fire-prone materials. However, even states with strict building codes are seeing more coverage denials. In California, which has strict building codes to mitigate wildfire risk, insurers have been increasingly rejecting requests for coverage. In certain counties, nonrenewal rates have risen by over 500 percent since 2018. The government has started to respond to the problem in some areas of the country. For example, in December, officials announced that they would make it easier for insurers to increase rates, but in exchange, they must agree to continue insuring consumers in fire-prone areas. Other state and local governments are carrying out prescribed burns in residential areas, as well as clearing vegetation close to houses, to reduce the risk of wildfire spread in these areas. Some companies have halted new insurance policies in certain parts of the country, such as AllState. In 2022, AllState paused the sale of new home and condo insurance policies in California. A spokesperson for the firm stated, “Our payments to help California residents recover from accidents and disasters have increased significantly in recent years due to higher repair costs and more frequent and severe weather… We continue to offer coverage to most existing home insurance customers.” State Farm, one of the biggest insurance providers in the U.S., followed suit in 2023 by halting the sale of new housing insurance products in California. In Florida, by the spring of 2024, at least 12 insurance companies had stopped selling housing insurance in the state. Farmers Insurance stated upon withdrawing from Florida, “This business decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure.” A 2024 report by the non-profit First Street Foundation, showed that 23.9 million properties in the U.S. were at risk from damaging winds, 4.4 million properties were at risk from wildfire, and a further 12 million properties were at significant risk of flooding – in addition to properties in the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema)'s Special Flood Hazard Areas. The report stated, “Private insurance companies are effectively labelling areas as uninsurable.” The result of the withdrawal of insurance companies from certain parts of the country is the inability for consumers to get a mortgage, meaning fewer people can buy a house. As houses sit empty, it drives down property prices in the area and leads to less tax revenue being collected to invest in services. Many communities are facing these consequences and feel left behind. If the U.S. government does not take action to mitigate the risk of the impact of extreme weather events in these areas or encourage insurers to continue covering high-risk areas, this will happen to a greater number of communities across the country. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 17:00
Cotati Man Gets DUI After 70 Empty Bud Light Cans Found In His Car We're not really sure you can call it a "suspected" DUI at this point... But that's how it was reported when a driver in California was taken into custody for DUI after failing a field sobriety test and being found with dozens of empty beer cans in his vehicle, according to police. The Cotati Police Department said officers pulled the driver over on Sunday night after noticing he was “struggling to maintain their travel plans” , according to KBTX. During the stop, they spotted an open alcohol container in the vehicle’s cupholder. KBTX reported that following a field sobriety evaluation, officers determined the driver’s blood alcohol content was more than three times the legal limit. He was arrested for driving under the influence and for operating a vehicle with a suspended license — a suspension stemming from a previous DUI offense. During a subsequent search of the SUV, authorities allegedly discovered “more than 70 empty Bud Light cans,” according to the department. “We want to remind everyone that drinking and driving is not worth it! The outcome could have been much worse had our officers not stopped the driver,” the Cotati Police Department stated. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 16:40
"Who Knows What To Believe These Days..." Authored by James Howard Kunstler, Cage Match! “...[W}e are closing in on more disclosures and fixing past wrongs to personnel. We’re making sure this is done correctly. But it’s absolutely getting done.” - Dan Bongino, Deputy Director, FBI Who knows what to believe these days? Well, what would you expect after years, even decades, of anti-reality operations by everyone from the CIA to The New York Times to Harvard U. Is it any wonder that reality-optionality is making the people both apathetic and insane? We are told now by the FBI that there is no evidence that Jeffrey Epstein ran a blackmail operation against the politicos of Western Civ, or that a “client list” existed, or that JE was murdered in his jail cell. It well might be true that there is no evidence, strictly speaking. Messrs. Patel and Bongino, coming into office rather late in the Epstein game, were apparently left with big bag of nuthin. What else can they truthfully report? So, they had to put it out there, knowing a whole lot of people would be miffed. “We’ve got nuthin, sorry.” Were they chagrined to do that? Evidently so. Of course, this Epstein business has been going on for years and years and it is certainly possible that the most damning evidence has been destroyed by interested parties. Personally, I find it implausible that absolutely nothing ever leaked, no video of, say, Tony Blair or Bill Clinton violating a child, if it ever happened. Everything else in our world leaks, eventually. And there were supposedly how many cameras around the Epstein properties, and how many thousands of hours of video recordings? There is more video of Bigfoot than of compromised Epstein bigshots. Just sayin’. AG Pam Bondi, the FBIs boss, also has some ‘splainin’ to do. In February, she claimed to have the Epstein client list “sitting on my desk right now to review,” and hinted it would be released shortly. That material, when released, turned out to be the old dog-eared flight logs that have been circulating through every news outlet for years. Did she not know the difference between an alleged “client list” and the old flight logs? Let’s face it: seems kind of dumb. . . seems like the AG got played. . . and now the mob on “X” is having sport with her. Among the miffed, apparently, is Elon Musk. At the height of his feud with Mr. Trump, on June 5, Elon put out a message on his “X” platform saying, "@realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!". This intemperate utterance naturally prompts you to wonder: how (or what) might Elon know about any supposed Epstein evidence? At this point, the FBI might send somebody to inquire. Did Elon, who has more money than even Scrooge McDuck, somehow manage to buy up all those alleged blackmail tapes? Does he otherwise know where they might have disappeared to? Has he ever seen anything? Anyway, he didn’t produce any actual evidence. Is Elon losing it, a little bit. His grip, that is. Mr. Trump thinks so. He declared over the weekend that Elon has “gone off the rails” . . . has become “a train wreck.” Well, what you can see in this very public, very regrettable cage-match between two giant public personalities is that Elon has lost his cool and the president has not. For one thing, Elon is apparently incensed over the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) just signed into law because it ends the electric vehicle mandate left over from the “Joe Biden” regime, as well as the whopping $7,500 federal tax credit for new electric cars — loss of which which is apt to break Tesla’s business model. The bill also calls for sunsetting subsidies for battery production by 2028, meaning Tesla’s Powerwall business is likewise affected. Mr. Trump took pains to explain that he’d informed Elon from the get-go (and repeatedly) that all those subsidies were done for when he got elected. Elon was visibly perturbed over the process that produced the OBBB, the proverbial political sausage-making (i.e., a nasty business you’d be appalled to watch). It appeared, he said, to un-do all of his DOGE spending cuts so laboriously made. Mainly, Elon deplored the failure to address the $36-trillion-plus national debt, widely recognized as a time-bomb on a short fuse liable to sink the whole USS United States. I will tell you a harsh truth: nobody will do anything about the national debt. The sheer math of our annual debt service is simply impossible. Our country is heading into some sort of bankruptcy proceeding, some kind of ferocious “work out” — as they say in the banking board-rooms. Mr. Trump is betting that re-industrialization of the USA will produce enough of the right sort of growth — that is, production of real things of real value, as opposed to mere financial shenanigans — that the debt reckoning can be overcome somehow. Or mitigated. It’s a bold risk, and many pieces of the scheme are indeed falling into place: tariffs, bigly investment capital from foreigners, a general realignment of trade relations, tax reform, downsizing of government. But a virulent opposition, the mad-dog remnants of the Democratic Party, seeks to wreck Mr. Trump’s program (and perhaps the USA altogether), and it is a miracle that the president has gotten this far with his plan. Personally, I’m doubtful that the energy resources will be there to underwrite this reindustrialization, but that is a topic for another day. And now Elon, peeved as he is, proposes to bring another big obstacle onto the scene, his proposed new “American Party.” Looks like he is making a tactical blunder, and his distraught emotional demeanor suggests poor decision-making. Frankly, I’ve been concerned about Elon’s soundness-of-mind since he came on-board Mr. Trump’s band-wagon last summer. There was something peculiar about his spastic rompings on stage, his jerky movements, his garbly speeches. You wonder if all the talk about his world-beating “genius” has messed with his mind. Also, frankly, I’ve long thought that attempting to colonize Mars was absurd, or at least premature. Shouldn’t we rather make an effort to demonstrate that we can live on this planet successfully before we venture off to a new one? After all, this Earth is perfectly suited to our needs and Mars is absolutely not. I doubt that even the most extreme transhuman program would avail to implant us up there. To cut to the chase: the grandiosity of Elon’s plans, and the oddness of his public performances, suggests to me that he has gone a bit crazy in the pure sense of the word. This new party he proposes looks like a crazy play by a crazy person. He can throw zillions of dollars into it, and create a whole lot of political mischief, but what would that prove? How would that make him any better than such obvious villains as George Soros and Bill Gates? Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 16:20
'Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste': Press & Pundits Push False Story On Trump Cuts Causing Texas Tragedy Authored by Jonathan Turley, Democratic strategist and former Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel once stated that “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” That philosophy seemed to be the playbook for the media and pundits immediately after the flood in Texas as many rushed to claim that it was caused by Trump budget cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS). From George Stephanopoulos to Rosie O’Donnell, the hoax was spread that there was an understaffing at the NWS that may have caused these deaths. It did not matter that it was an easy matter to confirm or that the underlying claims of understaffing the NWS team were false. The weaponization of such tragedies has become commonplace in American politics. Previously, Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer bizarrely attempted to blame the crash of a Mexican ship in New York and air accidents around the world on Trump cuts.There are legitimate reasons to question whether cuts to agencies like the NWS might impact key programs, such as weather warning systems. There are also questions about whether long-standing forecast modeling failed to capture the severity of this particularly storm. However, basic honesty and decency would demand a modicum of inquiry before blaming the NWS for a failure that caused mass deaths, including a large number of children. Indeed, the rush to claim that the tragedy was caused by understaffing can make it more difficult to find any real failures in the system. It is also possible that this was a convergence of weather systems that happened so fast (and late at night) that few citizens could take meaningful action. Some reports indicate that the river rose by 20 feet in only 45 minutes.Nevertheless, many rushed to take political advantage of the tragedy. Grant Stern, the executive editor of Occupy Democrats wrote on X “It only took 9 days for Trump’s cuts to the [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] to kill dozens of children in Texas when Tropical Storm Barry landed this week.” In reality, the NWS had extra personnel working the storm and issued the first warning 12 hours before the flood. Moreover, even assuming that the cuts to the NWS might impact warning systems, they are not even scheduled to take effect until next year. While there were retirements and resignations early in the Trump Administration, there is no evidence that those departures are impacting weather warnings, let alone this emergency. However, the media pounced as the death toll rose. Even after the Administration refuted the false claims, they were still being promulgated by the press. On ABC’s This Week George Stephanopoulos ominously declared “We’re also learning there were significant staffing shortfalls to the National Weather Services offices in the region.” Whatever “shortfalls” are being reported “in the region”, they did not appear to impact the early warning given 12 hours earlier or the fact that there were extra, not fewer, staffers working the storm. Again, none of this mattered. Politicians and pundits, such as Hakeem Jeffries and Adam Kinzinger, joined the chorus to suggest that cuts would make this a repeated failure. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) told CNN Sunday the NWS should be investigated. “I don’t think it’s helpful to have missing key personnel from the National Weather Service not in place to help prevent these tragedies.” As parents mourned dead children, commentators rushed to lay the losses at the feet of the Administration. Ron Filipkowski, the editor-in-chief of MediasTouchNews, wrote “The people in Texas voted for government services controlled by Donald Trump and Greg Abbott. That is exactly what they (sic) getting.” Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director at Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy declared “What has happened to the girls at Camp Mystic is EXACTLY what one of the country’s best meteorologists, John Morales, warned would happen. Trump’s cuts to the NOAA & NWS have critically impacted storm prediction nationwide.” Rosie O’Donnell, who famously fled the United States for the safety of Ireland after the election, added to the false narrative: “What a horror story in Texas. When the president guts all of the early warning systems and the weathering forecast abilities of the government, these are the results that we’re going to start to see on a daily basis.” There are obvious familiar aspects to the news coverage. It takes very little for the media to seed a false, viral story. It quickly enters the echo chamber and is repeated on countless social media sites. When it is finally debunked, the media just shrugs and walks away. Whether it was the false story about agents whipping migrants in Texas or the photo op claim in Lafayette Park, false stories were disproven only to have a collective shrug from those who spread them. Heading into the presidential debate, the White House and the media attacked Fox News and other outlets for “cheap fake” videos designed to make the President look confused and feeble. For months, politicians and pundits insisted that Biden was sharp and commanding in conversations even after Special Counsel Robert Hur cited his decline as a reason for not charging him criminally. On MSNBC, Joe Scarborough stated “start your tape right now because I’m about to tell you the truth. And F— you if you can’t handle the truth. This version of Biden intellectually, analytically, is the best Biden ever. Not a close second. And I have known him for years…If it weren’t the truth I wouldn’t say it.” When the truth came out after the election loss, reporters ran around claiming that they were shocked by the fact that Biden was indeed mentally and physically diminished. By that point, it did not matter. Biden was out and the truth could be reported in a slew of belated books and articles. Yet, some media outlets have refused to acknowledge false stories even after they were debunked. At the Washington Post, columnist Philip Bump previously had a meltdown in an interview when confronted about past false claims. After I wrote a column about the litany of such false claims, the Post surprised many of us by issuing a statement that it stood by all of Bump’s reporting, including false columns on the Lafayette Park protests, Hunter Biden’s laptop, and other stories. That was long after other media debunked the claims, but the Post stood by the false reporting. Many media outlets pushed such stories because they knew that their readers want the claims to be true — and will not be outraged (or even convinced) when the stories are later debunked. Notably, when the New York Times recently ran a confirmed story that was negative for the Democratic mayoral nominee in New York, liberal readers and pundits were outraged. Once again, we need to see what went wrong in Texas to try to avoid such tragedies in the future. However, the NWS appears to have done its job with adding extra staff and reportedly issuing the first warnings 12 hours in advance. We need to look at precisely when those warnings were issued during the critical period and what information they conveyed. The hair-triggered response of the media to weaponize the tragedy should also be reviewed. However, it is far more likely that there will be changes to emergency procedures than any serious change to journalistic practices. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 15:45
US Ends Foreign Terror Designation On Syria's HTS, Nearly 2 Months AFTER Trump Met Its Leader The United States announced Monday that has formally revoked the foreign terrorist organization designation for Syria's ruling Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, ironically coming nearly two months after President Trump met with its leader, Syria's self-declared interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani). It's not just ironic, but scandalous, that Trump met with a US-designated terrorist during this Gulf tour while in Saudi Arabia. If any individual American citizen did the same, they would likely be investigated and prosecuted by the FBI. But Sharaa is the "former" al-Qaeda in Syria man who helped overthrow Bashar al-Assad, and that's apparently all that Washington cares about. The newly published State Department memo, signed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, reads as follows: "In consultation with the Attorney General and the Secretary of the Treasury, I hereby revoke the designation of al-Nusra Front, also known as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham." The memo is actually dated to June 23, but has gone into effect at the time of publication. Recall that Trump had gone so far as to praise al-Sharaa as a "young, attractive guy" who has a "real shot at doing a good job". There was no mention at the time of protecting some of the world's most ancient churches and Syria's sizeable Christian community. The fruit of that 'good job' thus far has been a genocidal campaign launched against Alawites near Latakia, as well as attacks on churches, including last month's suicide bombing of St. Elias Orthodox Church in Damascus, which left at least 25 people - including children - dead. A group affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham actually took responsibility. Why aren't Christian leaders in the West more vocal about the plight of Syria's blood-soaked churches? "Shouldn't American Christians care about Syrian Christians, about their brothers in Christ? ...where are the Christians in this country when the IDF rolls into an all-Christian town in the West Bank?" — @TuckerCarlson with @scotthortonshow @BradRHoff pic.twitter.com/w6SpdZgLDC July 4, 2025 Not only has Trump dropped sanctions on post-Assad Syria, but is even encouraging historic rapprochement and normalization with Israel: Since assuming power, Sharaa has admitted that his government is holding "indirect talks" with Israel, and last week, Syrian authorities said they were willing to cooperate with Washington on reimplementing a 1974 disengagement agreement with Israel. Speaking earlier on Monday, the US special envoy to Syria and Lebanon, Tom Barrack, said "dialogue has started" between the two countries. Sharaa is likely to face opposition from his base and the broader Syrian population over a possible normalization deal, as Israel continues to wage war on hungry and besieged Palestinians in Gaza. Sadly, the message from the White House seems to be that Syria should prioritize ending the long-running state of conflict with Israel, but there's been barely a peep about the massacres being conducted against Syria's ancient Christian, Alawite, and Druze populations. While you're busy chasing the Epstein client list, here's what you missed: The Trump administration revoked the Foreign Terrorist Organization designation from Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham—aka al-Nusra Front, aka Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. pic.twitter.com/x9HIAVyd1i July 7, 2025 But this was all about the US-Gulf-Israeli push for regime change, and Jolani is now their #1 terrorist 'man in Damascus'. Assad and the Syrian Army ultimately lost the proxy war which was waged since 2011, with billions of dollars sunk into the effort from the Gulf and Western alliance. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 15:25
Goldman Sachs Expects Another OPEC+ Superhike In September Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com, The OPEC+ producers are expected in August to agree on another superhike in production for September that would complete the unwinding of the 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) output cuts, Goldman Sachs said after the alliance surprised the market with a larger-than-forecast boost for August. The OPEC+ group is set to unwind the last 550,000 bpd of the 2.2-million-bpd cut in September, the investment bank said in a weekend note. On Saturday, the eight OPEC+ producers withholding supply to the market decided to ramp up oil production more aggressively than anticipated in August. At the virtual meeting Saturday, the eight core members led by Saudi Arabia agreed to add 548,000 bpd to global supply—exceeding earlier expectations of a 411,000 bpd hike. The move sets the bloc on track to fully unwind 2.2 million bpd of prior cuts nearly a year ahead of schedule. “Saturday's announcement to accelerate supply hikes increases our confidence that the shift, which we started flagging last summer, to a more long-run equilibrium focused on normalizing spare capacity and market share, supporting internal cohesion, and strategically disciplining US shale supply, is continuing,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note carried by Reuters. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman cited “current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook”, as well as “low oil inventories”, for their decision to boost August production by more than previously expected. The decision reflects short-term bullish fundamentals for this summer. The superhike also reaffirms OPEC’s major pivot from defending oil prices to boosting output and market share for producers such as Saudi Arabia that have stuck to their quotas, and punishing producers that have overproduced and now have to forego most of their share of the production hike. Of these overproducers, Iraq and Russia appear to be trying to fall in line, but Kazakhstan continues to defy OPEC+ and pumps hundreds of thousands of barrels per day above its output ceiling, citing its inability to force foreign oil majors to cut production from new projects. The actual production increase from OPEC+ will be lower than the headline figure suggests, due to compensations for previous overproduction. Nevertheless, the superhike in August – and possibly in September – would accelerate the market glut after peak summer demand starts to wane in the autumn and winter, analysts say. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 15:05
The Frightening Dream House Of Zoran Mamdani Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness, Zoran Mamdani built his dream on radical chic... but now that he's winning, he's scrambling to bury the blueprint... After his first-place win in the New York City mayoral primaries, Zoran Mamdani is furiously denying everything that he once glibly thought was cutting-edge and cool. So, like a good postmodern relativist, Mamdani now claims he didn’t really mean that violence was merely a “construct.” I suppose Mamdani asked Jewish New Yorkers—the target of 44 percent of all hate crimes in the city—and discovered that their concussions and blood were all too real. As a good soldier in the ranks of Black Lives Matter, Mamdani now insists he did not trash the police and advocate defunding them. Neither did he really, really mean to claim falsely he was African-American when he applied to college nor did really, really mean to do a video mocking the Jewish holiday of Hannukah. Mamdani once thought it was cool to boast about defunding the police when he was an edgy, rising, left-wing community activist. But then it was smarter to play it down as a candidate. And now it is essential to lie and deny it as a front-runner. As a good communist, Mamdani echoed Karl Marx by bragging about his ultimate agenda: “the end goal of seizing the means of production.” But whose “means of production” would Mamdani start seizing? Trump Tower? Tesla dealerships? Amazon warehouses? Mamdani warns us, “I don’t think that we should have billionaires, frankly.” Then, please tell us, how would you get rid of them? Confiscate their money? Tax them at a 99 percent rate? Maybe dox them and let the public handle the rest? Mamdani brags he would “globalize the intifada.” Given that most define the intifada (“shaking off”) as the two violent Palestinian waves of terrorism against Israel, what then does Mamdani mean by globalizing it? Is the violence at universities like Columbia insufficient without escalating to the old PLO or current Hamas levels? Mamdani said that, as mayor, he would arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he came to New York City. But what crime would Netanyahu be guilty of? Trying to stop another Hamas October 7 massacre of Jewish civilians? Attempting to prevent the Iranians from getting a nuclear bomb and thereby fulfilling their daily promise of destroying Israel? If Mamdani believes the democratically elected Netanyahu deserves to be jailed, then would he similarly arrest a visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping for putting a million Uyghurs in labor camps? How about arresting Venezuelan communist dictator Nicolas Maduro, who has “disappeared” some 20,000 of his own people? How about Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose government executes homosexuals? Or is it just Jewish leaders who would be subject to Mamdani’s warrants? Mamdani promises to target “richer” and “whiter” neighborhoods for higher taxes. But in all analyses of median family household income, so-called whites rank far from the top at a distant eighth. Who, on average, ranks as the richest ethnic group in America? Asian immigrants of Indian ancestry—like Mamdani and his own family. So, why didn’t the supposedly erudite Mamdani say he was going after the statistically “richest” group in the nation for his tax hikes—like Indian-American households? Or was race more important than income in Mamdani’s Marxist view of collective enemies? Mamdani touts free transportation, rent control, and state-owned grocery stores as if they were new ideas. But they are stale, old-fashioned policies that have failed everywhere from the Soviet Union to Castro’s Cuba—and often here in blue-state university cities. Mamdani reflects a pattern of affluent, left-wing, and highly educated immigrants from impoverished countries. Barack Obama’s father, Kamala Harris’s father, and Rep. Ilhan Omar’s parents fled the poverty, violence, and corruption of their homeland only to find prosperity, even affluence, amid the safety and the rule of law in the United States. They and their American-born children were often the recipients of generous government scholarships and favorable preferences in admissions, hiring, and career advancements under affirmative action and diversity/equity/inclusion protocols. But instead of appreciating the unique security and magnanimity of their adopted country, they so often embraced boilerplate invective against America as an unkind, unfair, and unequal place. For Obama, America needed to be “fundamentally transformed.” For Omar, her adopted homeland was one of the “worst” countries, and she added it had become even worse than the Somaliland dictatorship she fled. For Mamdani, whose parents rank in the top one percent of income and educational brackets, the America his family sought as a refuge must be transformed into one of the socialist-communist nations of the sort that have failed everywhere. The glib Mamdani has canned answers for all of his past embarrassments—except one. Why would he wish to turn New York City into a social basket-case like Uganda, which his now-rich parents fled to reach America in the first place? Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 14:25
'Hit Us, Please' - America's Left Issues A 'Broken Arrow' Signal To Europe Authored by Jonathan Turley, “Broken arrow” is arguably the most chilling and desperate order that an American military commander can issue. When faced with an enemy about to overrun a surrounded force, a commander uses it to call in an air or artillery strike on his own position. This month, many on the American left are issuing their own “broken arrow” signals, including calling on globalist allies to hit the U.S. with sanctions and other measures. They are seeking to achieve through sanctions what they could not achieve through elections. The most recent such call came from commentator Elie Mystal on “The Joy Reid Show” this week. “Our country needs to be sanctioned,” he said. “We are the bad guys on the world stage. We are a menace to not only free people everywhere, but we are a menace to peaceful people everywhere at this point, and I’m not even going to say that we’ve only been a menace for the past three or four months.” Mystal’s call was hardly a surprise for those familiar with his writings. A regular commentator on MSNBC, he previously called the Constitution “trash” and urged not just the abolition of the U.S. Senate but also of “all voter registration laws.” Yet, he is not alone in signaling that his position is being overrun by his fellow citizens. After Elon Musk bought Twitter with a pledge to dismantle its censorship system, former Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton called upon Europe to use its infamous Digital Services Act to force him to censor fellow Americans. Nina Jankowicz, the former head of Biden’s infamous Disinformation Governance Board, appeared recently before the European Parliament. She called upon the 27 EU countries to fight against the U.S., which she described as a global threat. To the delight of globalists, she declared, “Before I describe the details of Russia’s recent online influence campaigns, I would like to call upon you to stand firm against another autocracy: The United States of America.” This year, I spoke in Berlin at the World Forum and was surprised to see many Americans joining European leaders in support of the forum’s slogan, “A New World Order with European Values.” Attended by figures such as Bill and Hillary Clinton, the conference heralded Europe as key to countering the threat posed by the U.S. Others denounced America as the world’s villain with boycotts and protests during Fourth of July celebrations. One leading influencer declared that “this country is beyond f**ked” and encouraged citizens to “walk away from the illusion that they built” around this country. Democratic politicians and pundits have fueled the anger by claiming fighting the current U.S. government is like fighting against the Nazis, including most recently former Vice President Al Gore. Others like Rep. Pramila Jayapal have called ICE agents “terrorists” for enforcing immigration laws. The crisis of faith on the left often seems to be triggered by any adverse decision or election. In 2022, the Pima County, Arizona Democratic Party tweeted “F–k the Fourth” after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. This year, Fourth of July celebrations were canceled in Los Angeles under the claim that officials feared a mass arrest by ICE — rather implausible, considering that protests against ICE will be held as planned. Others are organizing protests this week, declaring “F**k fourth of July. We have a king that we need to get rid of first.” The problem for those calling on the EU to fight the U.S. is democracy itself, something of a headache for the global elite in Brussels. European governments are cracking down on conservative and other groups, which are soaring in popularity, with calls for stronger borders and reversing mass immigration trends. Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, and other countries have experienced a similar surge in the popularity of conservative parties. The fact is, many of the triggers for these “No Kings” protests are the product of the democratic process from the “Big Beautiful Bill” to changes in immigration policy. Citizens voted for change and successfully secured it, and some people are angry about it. At the same time, our courts continue to function as designed in reviewing these orders and policies. Trump has won some and lost some before the Supreme Court, as constitutional limits are defined and enforced. In my forthcoming book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, I explore the future of American democracy in the 21st Century in light of economic and political movements, including the current crisis of faith of many on the left over our fundamental values and institutions. The irony is that this crisis is largely centered among the most privileged classes. Yet recent Gallup polling shows patriotism is at an all-time low. However, the drop is found almost entirely among Democrats. Only 36 percent of Democrats reported being extremely or very proud to be American, compared to 92 percent of Republicans. Some are simply moving to foreign countries. The New York Times has fanned the flames of those claiming that the U.S. is a new fascist regime. Recently, it featured the declaration of three Yale professors fleeing American fascism for the free nation of Canada. In their piece, titled “We study fascism and we are leaving the United States,” the professors explain that “the lesson of 1933 is that you get out sooner rather than later.” But what these professors call fascism looks a lot like the democratic process to others. The problem with democracy is that it does not always produce the outcome you want. For some, support for democratic choice seems to extend only to fellow citizens who make the “right” choice, from their own perspective, of course. So faced with losses in elections and in Congress, many are shouting “broken arrow” and hoping for external help in crushing the opposition. Yet the fact is, this country is not being “overrun.” Those are fellow citizens who are calling for these policy changes and rejecting far-left policies. Just as many in Europe are calling on the EU to block far-right democratic victories, many in this country are advocating for the trashing of the Constitution or transnational interventions to reverse political voting trends. The fact is, the far left is not truly surrounded. They have simply retreated into smaller and smaller echo chambers rather than engage the rest of the country on these issues. Viewed from within the protected spaces of MSNBC or BlueSky, you can feel surrounded, but it remains a type of self-isolation. It is like watching wagons frantically circling on the plains without a hostile in sight. The problem is that most of America has moved on. In the end, the calls for a globalist intervention are a final desperate call of America’s self-isolated left. Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the best-selling author of “The Indispensable Right.” Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 13:45
Russian Transport Minister Dies By Gunshot Hours After Getting Fired By Putin Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit is reported to have died by suicide on Monday, a mere hours after being dismissed from his post by President Vladimir Putin, according to Kremlin officials. Hours prior to Starovoit's death, Putin signed the order removing him from office, with the official decree having been quickly published on the Kremlin’s website. Deputy Minister Andrey Nikitin has been named as acting transport minister in the wake of the dismissal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was questioned by reporters on the firing, but did not provide details or a specific reason for the sudden change, but he did deny that it was due to a "lack of trust" when asked. According to emerging details conveyed through Russian state sources: The Investigative Committee of Russia said in a statement that Starovoit’s body was found inside a car in Odintsovo, a suburb of Moscow. He was found with a gunshot wound, the committee said. It said the circumstances of his death were being investigated but the “main theory is suicide.” Starovoit had barely served a year in the job, after being appointed in May 2024. Before that he was governor of the Kursk region bordering Ukraine for nearly half a decade. As Kursk governor, he had faced severe criticism and scrutiny for security lapses which allowed for last summer's Ukrainian invasion and occupation of large swathes of Russian soil, which lasted for well over six months. Starovoit's dismissal may have served as a public accountability scapegoat of sorts related to widespread public frustration and anger over weeks of commercial travel delays. Russia has witnessed weeks of disruptions to air travel across almost every major city in the Western and most populated portion of the country, due to constant drone assaults out of Ukraine. The Russian Federal Agency for Air Transport has lately said that 485 flights have been canceled, 88 rerouted, and approximately 1,900 experienced delays just over this past weekend and into Monday. Ukraine's military and intelligence leadership has lately openly boasted that its actions targeted against Russian soil have disrupted daily life there, in order to put pressure on the Putin government, and destabilize society. Given the recent history of deaths of top officials, and even oil execs - often under mysterious circumstances -Starovoit's death is also raising eyebrows and fueling speculation that it may be foul play. For example there was this headline from merely days ago... "Top Russian oil executive dies in Moscow window fall" - https://t.co/ea6qFb9udz July 5, 2025 CNBC highlights a potential corruption scandal: "A presidential decree published earlier on Monday gave no reason for the dismissal of Roman Starovoit after barely a year in the job, though political analysts were quick to raise the possibility that he may have been dismissed in connection with an investigation into corruption in the region he once ran," the report says. It continues: "Reuters could not independently confirm these suggestions, though a transport industry source, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, said Starovoit’s position had been in question for months due to questions about the same corruption scandal, which centred on funds earmarked for fortifying Russia’s border with Ukraine in the Kursk region." Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 13:25
Why Recessions Are Not About Declining GDP Authored by Frank Shostak via Mises.org Most economic commentators consider a decline in economic statistics, such as gross domestic product (GDP), as indicative of a decline in the health of the economy. According to most experts, this decline in the GDP—which is called a recession—as a rule, arises because of an overall decline in the aggregate demand for goods and services. This is seen predominantly as a decline in the private sector’s buying of goods and services. Consequently, it is recommended that the central bank should step in and strengthen the private sector’s demand. This, it is held, will pull the economy out of the slump. The means recommended by experts are the lowering of interest rates by increasing the growth rate of money supply. The problem—central to economics—is that goods are not readily available. These goods have to be produced by transforming various things in nature into goods, either capital goods (to make other goods) or consumer goods. The transformation of things undergoes various stages and takes time. In an economy, which operates in the framework of the division of labor, some individuals are employed in the extraction of various raw materials such as coal and iron. Some other individuals are employed in the conversion of raw materials into various tools and machinery. Still some other individuals are employed in the transformation—using tools and machinery—of various things into consumer goods. In order to support this process of production through time, saving is required to sustain producers. Saving supports individuals in all the stages of production—from the producers of immediate consumer goods, to the producers of raw materials, and the producers of tools and machinery. This saving to support capital accumulation and growth has been called a “subsistence fund” because it sustains individuals in the various stages of the production structure. Capital goods—like consumer goods—are also scarce. In order to make these goods, it is necessary to save and sacrifice. The goal is to create capital goods which will ultimately make production more productive and efficient—saving time, energy, and resources. As we can see, simply getting people to consume or spend more to increase aggregate demand, thus increasing the GDP metric, does not grow the economy. Production and saving must take place prior to consumption, in fact, that is what enables greater consumption. What Is a Recession? A recession is not really a weakening of GDP and various other economic indicators, but the liquidation of various non-productive activities that have emerged on the back of the loose monetary policies of the central bank. We label these activities bubbles. When the central bank loosens its monetary stance, this lays the foundation of exchanges of nothing for something, which amounts to a diversion of savings from wealth-generating activities to non-wealth-generating activities. This undermines the wealth generation process. Once the central bank slows this process of monetary and credit expansion—which had built up a distorted structure of production—a recession reveals the malinvestments. Activities that sprang up on the back of the previous easy-money policies are now getting less support as a result of a tighter monetary stance. These activities fall into trouble—an economic bust, or a recession emerges. Regardless of how big and strong an economy appears, a tighter monetary stance will undermine bubble activities. It follows, then, that recessions or economic busts are not about the strength of an economy as such. It is about the liquidation of activities that emerged because of the previous easy monetary policies of the central bank. The recessionary process is set in motion once the central bank reverses its easy-money stance. Ironically, recessions are good news for wealth-generators. A tighter monetary stance slows the diversion of savings from them towards bubble activities. This, in turn, strengthens the wealth-generation process. According to most commentators, however, as long as consumer spending is increasing, there is no risk of a recession ahead. This means that as long as there is a growing demand by consumers, good times will follow. But demand cannot be independent, it is restricted by the previous production. The only way to raise the ability to consume more is to raise the ability to produce. On this James Mill held, But if a nation’s power of purchasing is exactly measured by its annual produce, as it undoubtedly is; the more you increase the annual produce, the more by that very act you extend the national market, the power of purchasing and the actual purchases of the nation…. The demand of a nation is exactly its power of purchasing. But what is its power of purchasing? The extent undoubtedly of its annual produce. Once more, what limits demand is the ability to produce. Greater production of consumer goods depends on production of capital goods. In order to produce more capital goods, saving is required. The answer is not more consumption and spending fueled by inflationary monetary policy. GDP and the Money Supply The key variable that most commentators pay attention to is the gross domestic product (GDP). Given that this indicator is based on monetary turnover, then obviously changes in the money supply are followed by changes in the GDP. Policies aimed at preventing the emergence of a recession make things much worse. These policies not only provide support to existing bubble activities but allow the emergence of new bubbles, worsening the situation. As long as wealth producers can generate an adequate amount of savings to support productive and bubble activities, the inflationary policies of the central bank (which strengthens GDP) are regarded by most experts as a success. Once the ability of wealth-generators to support overall economic activity weakens, the economy is starting to slide into a recessionary hole. No central bank expansionary monetary policy can reverse this slide. On the contrary, it will deepen the economic slump. Conclusion A recession should not be defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but as the liquidation of bubble activities that emerged on the back of the previous easy-money policies of the central bank. The recessionary process is set in motion once the central bank reverses its easy stance, however, this inflationary policy cannot be continued forever or it risks undermining the entire monetary economy. What matters for true economic strength is not strong economic data but freedom from the central bank and government policies that tamper with markets and money. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 13:00
Canada's Manufacturing Sector Faces Sharp Decline Amid Tariffs And Trade Uncertainty Canada’s manufacturing sector shrank for the fifth month in a row, with the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 45.6 in June, down from 46.1 in May — well below the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction, according to the Financial Post. The latest data shows the steepest drop in production since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic hit. According to S&P Global, this downturn was driven by weak demand, a sharp fall in new orders, and ongoing trade challenges. “A lack of new orders underpinned the latest downturn and helped to explain the steepest reduction in production since the height of the pandemic,” said Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The Financial Post writes that manufacturers reported a significant decline in export demand, particularly from the U.S., which accounts for around 75% of Canada’s exports. Rising costs due to U.S. tariffs have made Canadian goods less competitive. As a result, international orders dropped at one of the steepest rates in the survey’s history. “Canada’s manufacturing economy continued to struggle in the face of tariffs and the ongoing uncertainty related to future trade policies,” Smith added. The slump has forced firms to cut output and reduce purchasing, leading to the fastest drop in input inventories in five years. Some of this was due to intentional destocking, but supply chain delays also led companies to rely on existing stock. Employment in the sector fell for the fifth consecutive month, with firms choosing not to replace departing staff or enacting layoffs to manage costs. “International sales unsurprisingly were especially subdued, and, against this backdrop, firms chose to make further cuts to their employment and purchasing activity,” said Smith. Despite the grim data, some manufacturers are cautiously optimistic. Confidence in the outlook rose to its highest level since January, though it remains below the historical average. “Although sentiment improved on hopes of some stability in the year ahead, confidence in the outlook remains subdued and uncertain,” Smith concluded. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 12:40
Israel Bombs Ports, Power Plant In Yemen After Month-Long Pause On Sunday Israel's military launched airstrikes on three ports and a power facility against Houthi-controlled Yemen, resulting in the group launching a barrage of missiles in retaliation. Israel is calling the major new initiative 'Operation Black Flag'. The Israeli military (IDF) announced it had targeted the Red Sea ports of Hodeidah, Ras Isa, and as-Salif, as well as the Ras Kathib power station. Additionally, it described striking a radar system aboard the Galaxy Leader, a ship previously seized by the Houthis and currently docked in Hodeidah. Illustrative: prior Israeli strikes on Yemen, via AP. This is the first escalation of its kind in nearly a month, and the IDF defended the action as necessary and warranted after intercepting a missile launched from Yemen earlier that day. At least two more missiles were fired on Israel following the port strikes, with Houthi military spokesperson Yehyaa Saree later confirmed the launches, saying they again targeted Ben Gurion Airport, as well as the ports of Ashdod and Eilat and a power station in Ashkelon. Israeli defense systems were active in seeking to intercept the inbound missiles, with possible damage on the ground still being assessed. No casualties on either side of this fresh flare-up were initially reported. There are meanwhile new fears that another war could erupt in the Red Sea, as we also reported earlier. On Saturday evening, air raid sirens sounded across the Dead Sea region and parts of the West Bank following the launch of a ballistic missile from Yemen toward Israel. The launch, attributed to Iran-backed Houthi forces, marked an alarming expansion of their missile capabilities beyond the Red Sea maritime chokepoint. Hours later, on Sunday morning, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) received a report that a merchant vessel transiting 51 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen, came under attack by multiple boats armed with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades. The vessel's onboard security team returned fire. The incident remains ongoing. Israel has launched 'Operation Black Flag' against Yemen. Warplanes have dropped at least 60 munitions across the country, including on the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa after the Yemeni Armed Forces targeted the Magic Seas in the Red Sea, a vessel linked to Israel, earlier… pic.twitter.com/IPqYm3H7Qc July 6, 2025 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the White House on Monday, where a potential ceasefire deal could materialize to end the 21-month war in Gaza. Trump has previously announced a "final proposal" for a 60-day ceasefire. Renewed conflict in Yemen is likely to also be on the agenda, after the US military formally ended its Red Sea mission. * * * Below are more developing events and headlines via Newsquawk: Middle East Israeli military issued an evacuation order to people at Yemen’s ports of Hodeidah, Ras Isa and Al-Salif, as well as to those inside the Hodeidah power station, while it announced to carry out airstrikes in those areas due to military activities being conducted there. Israel's Defence Minister later confirmed military strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen's ports of Hodeidah, Salif, Ras Isa, as well as the Ras Qatib power plant A Liberia-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier was attacked 51NM off Yemen’s Hodeidah, while the UKMTO later announced that all crew abandoned a ship that was attacked southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah. Israeli PM’s office said the changes requested by Hamas to the Qatari proposal are not acceptable to Israel, while the negotiating team will depart to Qatar for Gaza talks. Israeli PM Netanyahu said he is determined to ensure hostages’ return to Israel and remove the Hamas threat from Gaza, while he said his negotiators in ceasefire talks have clear instructions to achieve an agreement under conditions Israel has accepted. Furthermore, Netanyahu said ahead of his White House meeting that he believes the discussion with US President Trump can certainly help advance these results. US President Trump said he will discuss Iran with Israeli PM Netanyahu and noted Iran’s nuclear program was set back permanently but they may restart in a different location, while Trump also said there could be a Gaza deal during the week ahead. First session of indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended inconclusively and the Israeli delegation does not have sufficient mandate to reach an agreement with Hamas as it has no real power, according to two Palestinian officials cited by Reuters. Hamas government office rejected a US State Department accusation that Hamas was involved in an attack on Americans at a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation site on Saturday. UK government re-established diplomatic relations with Syria. The second round of (Israel-Hamas) negotiations in Doha will begin this afternoon, via Al Arabiya sources. Subsequently, there is reportedly a positive atmosphere in Israel-Hamas negotiations, no breakthrough so far, according to Al Hadath. Ukraine US President Trump said they won’t be sending patriot missiles to Ukraine but talked about it and noted they have to be protected, while he said Russian President Putin is worried about sanctions and understands it may be coming. Russian military forces gained control of Sobolivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and Piddubne in Donetsk region. Russian Foreign Minister says Russia does not need a temporary ceasefire, but rather a lasting peace. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 12:00
Luxury Housing Market No Longer Out Of Reach For Some 'Move-Up' Buyers: Report Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Many people recall the Emmy Award–winning sitcom “The Jeffersons,” whose theme song references George and Weezie “moving on up.” Today, that trend is making a comeback in the luxury market, as “move-up” buyers are entering it for the first time. ppa/Shutterstock Coldwell Banker’s 2025 Mid-Year Global Luxury Report indicates the U.S. luxury home market remains strong, with more buyers whose significant financial gains on the sales of their current homes are pushing them into a new level of home-buying opportunities. In preparing the report, the national real estate brokerage analyzed luxury market data from 120 U.S. markets and surveyed more than 200 of their luxury-property specialists to identify five current trends shaping this market segment. “Buyers who once thought luxury was out of reach are now finding themselves in that tier by default,” Michael Altneu, vice president of the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Program, said in the report. “They’re coming to the market with significant equity and high expectations, and they’re helping to sustain activity.” This group includes homeowners who purchased properties five or more years ago and have made significant gains on their real estate investments. According to Realtor.com, the threshold prices for the luxury home market vary from state to state, with a low of $750,000 in West Virginia, to a high of $5.49 million in New York. Elena Novak, a lead real estate researcher analyst at PropertyChecker.com, told The Epoch Times that the trend of “move up” buyers is real and growing. “This is mostly due to record-high home equity, and many are putting their money toward larger homes, often in cash or with very small mortgages,” she said, citing an earlier report by data company ATTOM that notes U.S. home sellers in 2024 made an average profit of $122,500 per sale. However, Novak cautioned that the housing ladder is getting stuck. “While these buyers do help free up some mid-range homes, many other homeowners are staying put because they don’t want to give up their low mortgage rates,” she said. “This limits supply for first-time and middle-income buyers.” Novak believes that the effect of this “move up” trend will be mostly positive for the local economy. “A move-up buyer means two homes are sold, their old one and the new one [they bought], and that creates more spending, more local jobs, and more tax income,” she said. She believes the trend is also helping to keep the high-end market healthy, particularly in migration areas like the Sun Belt. Shaun Michael Lewis, CEO of Clearwater Properties, agrees, adding that the trend is equally as popular in the West. “Buyers who five years ago might have secured a modest $400,000 house in Bozeman, Montana, are now sitting on perhaps $600,000, $700,000 in equity and can now contemplate the purchase of a home around $1.2 million to $1.5 million in other ‘less hot’ locations where they can get much more home for their money,” he told The Epoch Times. Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director at Real Estate Research, told The Epoch Times that the luxury market has been outperforming all other price segments over the past year—in particular, the $1 million-plus tier. “However, in May 2025, we saw a shift—sales in this segment declined 0.6 percent year over year, marking the first drop in over a year,” she said. “This softening at the top of the market suggests that broader market dynamics are catching up with high-end buyers.” Evangelou suggested that the recent stock market volatility could be a possible factor, as it often influences liquidity and buying behavior in the luxury market. Lewis believes those “moving up” will not only help fuel the tax base, but also the local economy with new luxury homeowners shopping, frequenting restaurants, and hiring specialized services such as landscaping and property management. On the flip side, the trend is forcing many potential buyers to drive further out from towns like Bozeman to find listings under $400,000. “This housing shortage also makes it harder for businesses to recruit and keep staff and often forces employers to invent interim housing fixes like temporary lodging,” Lewis said. While luxury sales remain strong, he contends they’re splitting the market in half. “Sellers who are selling properties priced above $1 million are still enjoying relatively quick sales, while homes priced from $600,000–900,000 are sitting on the market for longer, “ he said. Other Luxury Market Trends More than 68 percent of those surveyed by Coldwell Banker reported that clients are either maintaining or growing their real estate exposure, with another 51 percent reporting an increase in all-cash transactions. The report indicates that clients are also more unlikely to compromise on lifestyle preferences, property conditions, or luxury features. “Affluent buyers still see real estate as a safe haven to grow and protect their wealth,” Altneu said in a statement. “But as the market balances and more inventory comes online, they can also be more choosy than in recent years.” Another trend the report found is that real estate remains a cornerstone of wealth strategy, especially during times of economic uncertainty. It maintains that affluent buyers view real estate as safe haven as well as a valuable tool for portfolio diversification. “Smart Luxury” is a third emerging trend with luxury homebuyers making more practical considerations such as value for price, tax strategy, estate planning, and long-term investment potential. According to the report, these tend to be taking the place of over-the-top amenities or “trophy” locations. The fourth trend is a wider divide between the ultra-wealthy versus the aspirational buyer. This translates to buyers with a net worth of $1 million to $5 million as opposed to buyers with a net worth of $30 million and above. The report finds those in the $1 million to $5 million range tend to be more cautious and often target homes with renovation potential. The final trend pertains to cash buyers, with 96 percent of Coldwell’s luxury specialists reporting buyers maintaining or increasing all-cash deals. “Ultra-high-net-worth individuals are not just buying one property—they’re building real estate portfolio,” Jade Mills, international ambassador of the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Program said in the report. “These buyers are paying all cash specifically because they want hard assets independent of market swings.” The report quotes data from the Institute for Luxury Marketing showing the luxury single-family home inventory has escalated by 19.6 percent and attached property inventory by 14.8 percent compared with 2024. Still, single-family home prices grew by 1.8 percent year over year and 8 percent compared with 2023. Prices for attached properties have advanced even more—by 8.4 percent year over year and 16.5 percent over the past two years. An April study by the University of California San Diego Rady School of Management found that all cash home buyers have an advantage by paying about 10 percent less than mortgage buyers. “When sellers accept a mortgage offer, it comes with risk,” Michael Reher, study co-author and assistant professor of finance at the Rady School of Management said in a statement. “There is a risk the deal will fall through because there’s a third-party mortgage lender who needs to approve the loan for the borrower .” Reher and a colleague conducted the study after they both had experienced mortgage offers to homes being rejected because sellers chose an all-cash offer instead. A recent Bankrate blog on cash offers weighs both the pros and cons of these types of transactions, noting quicker closing and less red tape when dealing with a lender, but also the possibility of not receiving the highest amount on the deal. “Ultimately, deciding whether an all-cash offer is right for you will depend on whether you want to sell as fast as possible,” the webpage reported. “If you have time and want to aim for top dollar, you might get a better deal from a buyer who’s financing.” Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 11:40
Gunman Ambushes Border Patrol Agents In Texas Amid Anti-ICE Rhetoric From Democrats Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin reported moments ago that a gunman wearing tactical gear and armed with a rifle ambushed U.S. Border Patrol agents at an auxiliary facility earlier this morning. This shooting comes amid increasingly hostile rhetoric directed at federal agents — primarily fueled by Democratic Party lawmakers and their affiliated leftist Marxist NGOs — raising questions about the real-world consequences of politically charged attacks on federal law enforcement. BREAKING: Gunman opens fire on Border Patrol agents in McAllen, Texas, is killed after they return fire, sources tell @BillMelugin_ pic.twitter.com/U809ecgPWH July 7, 2025 "Three federal & TX law enforcement sources tell me an active shooter with a rifle & tactical gear ambushed Border Patrol agents as they arrived at a Border Patrol annex facility in McAllen, TX this morning," Melugin wrote on X. He continued, "Local police and federal agents returned fire, killing him. I'm told this was a purposeful ambush/attack against federal agents and a press conference is planned for later this morning." Melugin noted that "No federal agents injured. I'm told a McAllen police officer may have been shot, but is in stable condition." BREAKING: Three federal & TX law enforcement sources tell me an active shooter with a rifle & tactical gear ambushed Border Patrol agents as they arrived at a Border Patrol annex facility in McAllen, TX this morning. Local police and federal agents returned fire, killing him. I’m… pic.twitter.com/xL3qw5G6OW July 7, 2025 "Violence against law enforcement officials is unacceptable. Democrat leaders must stop putting targets on the backs of ICE and Border Patrol with their rhetoric," Elon Musk's America PAC (AMERICA) wrote on X. Democrat leader Zohran Mamdani doubles down on anti-ICE rhetoric: "we have to stand up and fight back." ICE agents were brutally attacked during the LA riots and are seeing a 500% increase in assaults. Democrats are inciting more violence against our law enforcement officers. pic.twitter.com/TiSImCNAPU June 29, 2025 Tom Homan, President Trump's border czar, stated on Fox News: "The attack on ICE officers... is up nearly 700% now... We have Senators, we have Congresspeople that compare ICE to the Nazis... The rhetoric has to stop or it's a matter of time before one of the ICE officers goes down." .@RealTomHoman: "The attack on ICE officers... is up nearly 700% now... We have Senators, we have Congresspeople that compare ICE to the Nazis... The rhetoric has to stop or it's a matter of time before one of the ICE officers goes down." pic.twitter.com/dkPVYqeG4N July 7, 2025 Last month, a top far-left city official in southeast Los Angeles County called for Mexican gangs to mobilize against ICE agents. "Get Your F**king Members In Order": L.A. Official Calls For Mexican Gangs To Mobilize Against ICE Agents https://t.co/lim3BAg83o June 24, 2025 Will the Trump administration finally get serious about Democrats and their rogue network of leftist NGOs accused of inciting violence against federal agents? .@HouseDemocrats MUST condemn this violent attack and end their dishonest smear campaign that has placed a bullseye on the backs of our Border Patrol agents. https://t.co/OPRlP1wadf July 7, 2025 . . . Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 11:25
Trade & Tariff Recap: All Eyes On Today's 12pm "Signed Letters" Announcement Trade tensions are back in view as the 90-day deadline to reciprocal tariffs (which sparked a painful but extremely short market correction) approaches on July 9, with Trump pledging to start issuing unilateral rates to dozens of countries in the coming days. Stocks retreated at the start of a potentially volatile week as US trading partners rushed to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration ahead of the Wednesday deadline. However, one potential offset is that there are increasingly suggestions that August 1st might be the new July 9th (more below). As a benchmark, DB's economists believe the current effective tariff rate is around 15% (same as Morgan Stanley, see chart below), which is obviously a good deal below the implied rate from Liberation Day, but well above the low single figures before Trump returned to office. It is good news for markets that Section 899 (the revenge tax) has been consigned to the history books after not making it into the tax bill. It's also good news that Bessent has recently sounded more positive on the direction of travel in recent talks. However, with financial conditions easy again and with the S&P 500 back at all-time highs, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Trump Administration take a tough stance with those who they don't think negotiations are going in the right direction (this was discussed over the weekend in "The Risk For Stocks Is That The Administration Decides It Was Correct All Along On Tariffs"). President Trump said at the end of last week that by the July 9 deadline, tariffs would be "fully covered and they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20%." Then over the weekend he said that he'd “signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday – probably 12”. Overnight this was firmed up to noon Washington time today, so expect a flurry of headlines at noon! On Thursday Trump mentioned that the letters could go out on the Friday holiday and apply from August 1st if no deal can be made. This gave some comfort that there could be yet another extension and time to do deals. Bessent has also reiterated over the weekend that some countries would be able to negotiate a three-week extension to August 1st. So maybe we'll just be here again in three weeks when everyone is on the beach apart from the trade negotiators. Bessent also said Trump will send letters to trading partners notifying them if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels while also adding that they are close to several deals and expect to see some big announcements in the next days. Furthermore, Bessent said 100 smaller countries will get set a tariff rate and many never even contacted the US. For Europe, Bloomberg reported that the union is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff if exemptions for areas such as autos (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%) are provided. For Japan, the mood turned negative last week as President Trump said that they should "pay 30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan." On the bright side, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they were "very close" to a deal with India, and on Thursday the US reached a trade deal with Vietnam. Then overnight Trump posted on social media that "Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff” This follows a BRICs summit in Rio over the weekend where the group leaders, including China and India, condemned and called for a "just and lasting" resolution to conflicts across the Middle East. Courtesy of Newsquawk, here is a summary of all the latest trade/tariff news from the weekend and this morning: Trump said trade letters are signed and are going out on Monday addressed to 12 countries but declined to say which countries or the different tariff levels involved. Trump later commented that they will have a deal or letter with most nations done by July 9th and could send out 12 or 15 letters on tariffs on Monday. Trump posted "I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7th" Trump posted "Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy." Bessent said Trump will send letters to trading partners notifying them if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels with the tariffs to take effect on August 1st, while Bessent added that they are close to several deals and expect to see some big announcements in the next days. Furthermore, Bessent said 100 smaller countries will get set a tariff rate and many never even contacted the US. Russian President Putin told BRICS through a video link that it is important to enhance cooperation at BRICS and the usage of national currencies, while he commented that the liberal globalisation model is becoming obsolete. White House Economic Adviser Hassett said it is possible that some trade negotiations will push past the deadline, while he added that trade deals with the UK and Vietnam provide guidelines for additional agreements with other countries, according to a CBS interview. EU diplomats said on Friday that EU negotiators failed to achieve a breakthrough in US trade talks and negotiations to continue into the weekend, while EU negotiators were looking to secure a US tariff pause extension if no wider trade deal is agreed. It was also separately reported that the US threatened the EU with a 17% tariff on food exports, according to FT. Japan’s tariff negotiator Akazawa held in-depth phone talks with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday and Saturday, according to Japan’s government. Japanese automakers are reportedly exploring all options to help reduce trade imbalances with the US, via Nikkei; one idea is Toyota Motor (7203 JT) importing cars made in the US back to Japan. China retaliated against the EU ban regarding public tenders for medical devices by imposing import restrictions on medical devices. China’s Finance Ministry said it is to exclude imports of medical devices exceeding CNY 45mln from the European Union from July 6th, while imports of medical devices from non-EU countries should not contain EU-made components worth more than 50% of the contract value. India and the US are likely to take the final decision on a mini trade deal in the next 24-48 hours (reported on Sunday), with an average tariff under the mini trade deal likely to be 10%, while talks have currently only been completed on a mini-trade deal and negotiations on a larger bilateral trade agreement will begin after July 9th, according to CNBC-TV18. Thailand is to offer the US more trade concessions to avert a 36% tariff with Thailand’s Finance Minister expected to submit the revised orders before July 9th with a proposal to boost bilateral trade volume and reduce Thailand’s USD 46bln trade surplus with the US by 70% within 5 years, according to Bloomberg. South African Trade Department spokesperson says it remains committed to a trade deal with the US; conversations are constructive and fruitful. US-Indonesia trade deal includes buying US soybean, corn and energy products, according to an official. German government spokesperson says time is money when it comes to tariff negotiations; adds, Chancellor Merz is coordinating with EU President von der Leyen, Italy PM Meloni, and French PM Macron on tariff talks. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 11:10
The Big Four Just Became Five: Walmart Quietly Captures The Beef Chain Via Beef News, Walmart’s new case-ready beef facility in Olathe, Kansas isn’t just another fulfillment center—it’s a chess move. A 300,000-square-foot plant. 600 new jobs. Cuts packed, labeled, and shipped straight to Walmart shelves. And all of it fed by one source: Sustainable Beef LLC, the North Platte processor Walmart bought into back in 2022. What the press release calls “supply chain transparency” is really supply chain capture. “We’re delivering more of what our customers want—affordable food and quality they can trust.” John Laney, EVP Food, Walmart U.S. Trust, sure. Just don’t ask who sets the prices for the people raising the cattle. One Chain. One Gatekeeper. Walmart now owns a piece of the processor (Sustainable Beef), owns the packaging plant (Olathe), and controls the retail outlet (Walmart stores). That’s vertical integration—top to bottom. Total investment? Nearly $700 million. This isn’t a backup plan. It’s a power play. Walmart decides what cattle are worth Walmart decides how it’s cut and wrapped Walmart decides what consumers pay The middle? Gone. Small Processors Wiped Out According to USDA’s Packers and Stockyards Report, the number of federally inspected beef slaughter plants declined from 297 in 2013 to 271 by 2022. And that’s just the headline. Nationwide, over half of small and mid-sized beef processors (those handling 5–500 head per week) disappeared between 2000 and 2020, based on analysis from Rocky Mountain Farmers Union. Then COVID hit. According to NIOSH and CDC data, more than 480 meat and poultry facilities across the country reported COVID outbreaks. Many of the small ones—already fragile—never reopened. Nationwide, small and mid-sized beef processors have declined sharply over the past two decades, with many regions—including the High Plains—now facing limited slaughter access and months-long backlogs. From Four to Five: The New Packing Order The Big Four meatpackers—Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef—have dominated the industry for decades. Now Walmart is quietly becoming the fifth. It owns the processor (Sustainable Beef) It controls the packaging (Olathe) It owns the shelf (Walmart stores) And unlike the others, Walmart doesn’t have to make money on meat. It can sell beef at cost to move more detergent, diapers, and digital subscriptions. If you’re a rancher? You’re not negotiating with a buyer—you’re entering a corporate conveyor belt. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 10:50
Sleeper Cells, Assassination, Death To America, & Nukes: Carlson's Full Interview With Iranian President "I’m of the belief that we could very much, easily resolve the differences and conflicts with the United States through dialogue and talks," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Tucker Carlson, based on the full interview (done remotely) released by the Tucker Carlson Network on Monday. Of course, Tehran and Washington were engaged in what were supposed to be several rounds of good-faith talks at the very moment Israel began its surprise attack, utilizing dozens of warplanes, on June 13 - and which followed for nearly two weeks. Pezeshkian described that Iran's aim, prior to the June war starting, was to achieve "the framework or the basis for a deal in which the rights of all nations, the Iranian nation, would be respected." Iran has consistently insisted that it be able to keep enrichment, as a matter of national sovereignty and for peace domestic energy purposes. "We never wanted anything beyond the respect for our rights - rightful rights," he told Carlson. Carlson asked Pezeshkian if Iran will allow other countries to verify Iran's enrichment activities. Pezeshkian says "we are ready to hold talks" over monitoring and that "we stand ready" to accept it. However, the fact that Israel and the US just bombed the Islamic Republic has introduced major complications - not the least of which was Iran just days ago booting UN inspectors from the IAEA out of the country. For this reason President Pezeshkian stressed that monitoring must await Iranian authorities allowing access to nuclear facilities. At least three - Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan - have likely suffered significant damage following the Trump-ordered B-2 raids using large bunker busting ordinance. Sleeper cells in US cities? "This is what Israel is trying to put into your minds," the Iranian leader said. 🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 IRAN'S PRESIDENT TO TUCKER: NO SUCH THING AS IRANIAN SLEEPER CELLS IN THE U.S. Pezeshkian: “This is what Israel is trying to put into your minds. You're propagating that Iranians might be capable of doing such things, but this is totally untrue, because by nature,… https://t.co/RfbFYTBOdV pic.twitter.com/UJ5p0WstBH July 7, 2025 Debate and speculation has been raging ever since over the degree to which the country's core nuclear capabilities have actually been set back. On the question of future diplomacy, Pezeshkian said "I believe that the United States President can very well guide the region and the world to peace & tranquility. Or on the other hand to lead it to forever wars." He also said that the Islamic Republic is not seeking nuclear weapons. "We see no problem in re-entering the negotiations," he continued, but then qualified: "How are we going to trust the United States again. We re-enter the negotiations then how can we know for sure that in the middle of the talks the Israeli regime will not be given the permission again to attack us." This appears to be precisely what happened in June. Axios and others also reported that the US had been secretly conspiring with the Israelis to greenlight the attack even as talks in Oman and Rome were happening. These reports present the nuclear dialogue as a ruse to lull the Iranians into thinking that all was okay, even up to the eve of the Israeli assault. Did IAEA spy on Iran? 🚨🇮🇷 DID IAEA SPY ON IRAN? "They had full access to supervise and monitor our nuclear facilities," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian tells Tucker Carlson in an explosive interview. Watch 📹 pic.twitter.com/dgGvahE4B4 July 7, 2025 "My proposal is that the US administration should refrain from getting involved in a war that is not its war. It is not America's war," the Iranian leader said. "It is Netanyahu's war that is having its devilish machinations for the whole region." Carlson did not particularly challenge these assertions, also given in other recent episodes and interviews he himself has made the same point - that Washington should resist being dragged into Israel's foreign wars and entanglements. At one point in the interview Pezeshkian was asked directly by Carlson whether Israel had attempted to kill him, to which the Iranian leader confirmed it, and added, "I’m not afraid to sacrifice my life for my country, for my country’s freedom. But will it bring security and peace to the region? It will only bring more bloodshed." He said this was an Israeli operation aimed at regime change: "It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel. I was at a meeting, we were discussing how to move forward, and thanks to the intelligence and spies they had, they tried to bomb the area where the gathering was held. God decides who lives and who dies. We are not afraid to become martyrs." Watch: attempted assassination of a sitting president... 🚨Iranian President confirms Israel tried to ASSASSINATE him "They did try, yes. But they failed," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian tells Tucker Carlson in a bombshell interview. Watch 📹 https://t.co/dLdLyMSQ1P pic.twitter.com/eaus52mfJU July 7, 2025 At same time he sought to stress that Iran has never sought to assassinate President Trump, despite American media reports and the claims of some of the US administration's own officials. "I would like to tell you and remind you that this is not Death to the American people or to the officials. Death to crimes and atrocities. To bullying. To the use of force," Pezeshkian said when pressed about why Iranians commonly chant this in the streets. He also said that Iran hasn't invaded another country in 200 years. However, Iran in just the last could decades has seen the country to its immediate west (Iraq) and the country to its east (Afghanistan), suffer regime change and lengthy occupation by American-led forces. On the question of sensational US headlines of Iranian terror sleeper cells in the United States, Pezeshkian responded that this "the first time I am hearing" of this concept. "This is totally untrue because Iranians are pro peace and tranquility." Historically at least, suicide bombing as a method of terror is more of a reality coming from Sunni radicalism, and not Shi'ism. Watch the full interview: Masoud Pezeshkian, president of Iran. (0:00) How Would Iranian President Pezeshkian Like to See This Conflict End? pic.twitter.com/lMPoFa5ChX July 7, 2025 Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 10:30
Key Events This Week: FOMC Minutes And Trump Tariff Deadline The week after payrolls is usually quiet for data (key US event on the calendar is the FOMC minutes on Wednesday) so all eyes will focus on Wednesday's 90-day extension to the reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation Day back on April 2nd. However, there are increasingly suggestions that August 1st might be the new July 9th (see below). As a benchmark, DB's economists believe the current effective rate is around 15% (same as Morgan Stanley, see chart below), which is obviously a good deal below the implied rate from Liberation Day, but well above the low single figures before Trump returned to office. It is good news for markets that Section 899 (the revenge tax) has been consigned to the history books after not making it into the tax bill. It's also good news that Bessent has recently sounded more positive on the direction of travel in recent talks. However, with financial conditions easy again and with the S&P 500 back at all-time highs, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Trump Administration take a tough stance with those who they don't think negotiations are going in the right direction. President Trump said at the end of last week that by the July 9 deadline, tariffs would be "fully covered and they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20%." Then over the weekend he said that he'd “signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday – probably 12”. Overnight this was firmed up to noon Washington time today. On Thursday he'd mentioned that the letters could go out on the Friday holiday and apply from August 1st if no deal can be made. This gave some comfort that there could be yet another extension and time to do deals. Bessent has also reiterated over the weekend that some countries would be able to negotiate a three-week extension to August 1st. So maybe we'll just be here again in three weeks when everyone is on the beach apart from the trade negotiators. For Europe, Bloomberg reported that the union is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff if exemptions for areas such as autos (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%) are provided. For Japan, the mood turned negative last week as President Trump said that they should "pay 30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan." On the bright side, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they were "very close" to a deal with India, and on Thursday the US reached a trade deal with Vietnam. Then overnight Trump posted on social media that "Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff,” This follows a BRICs summit in Rio over the weekend where the group condemned US and Israeli strikes on Iran. In terms of key events this week, a highlight will be June's FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday. Economists expect more details to emerge around the extent of divisions among Committee members. Staying with monetary policy, central bank decisions are due in Australia tomorrow and New Zealand on Wednesday. DB's economists forecast 25bps cuts for both. So lots of headlines in recent days, stand by for lots more over the next two days, and then likely beyond. Courtesy of DB, here is a Day-by-day calendar of events Monday July 7 Data: China June foreign reserves, Japan May labor cash earnings, leading and coincident index, Germany May industrial production, Eurozone May retail sales, Sweden June CPI Central banks: ECB's Nagel and Holzmann speak Tuesday July 8 Data: US June NFIB small business optimism, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, May consumer credit, Japan June Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, May BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany May trade balance, France May trade balance, current account balance Central banks: RBA decision, ECB's Nagel speaks Wednesday July 9 Data: US May wholesale trade sales, China June CPI, PPI, Japan June M2, M3, machine tool orders Central banks: FOMC minutes, RBNZ decision, ECB's Nagel and Guindos speak Thursday July 10 Data: US initial jobless claims, UK June RICS house price balance, Japan June PPI, Italy May industrial production, Denmark and Norway June CPI, Sweden May GDP indicator Central banks: Fed's Musalem and Daly speak, ECB's Cipollone and Villeroy speak Friday July 11 Data: US June federal budget balance, UK May monthly GDP, Germany June wholesale price index, May current account balance, Canada June jobs report, May building permits * * * Turning to just the US, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. St. Louis Fed President Musalem and San Francisco Fed President Daly will take part in public speaking engagements on Thursday. Monday, July 7 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. Tuesday, July 8 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, June (consensus 98.6, last 98.8) 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, June (last 3.2%) Wednesday, July 9 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, May final (consensus -0.3%, last -0.3%) 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, June 17-18:At its June meeting, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth forecasts to reflect larger tariff increases than they had previously assumed, but they made only moderate changes and were likely cautious in their tariff assumptions. The median 2025 dot—the key market focus at the June meeting—was unchanged by a narrow 10-9 majority at two cuts to 3.875%, while the median 2026 and 2027 dots both increased by 25bp. In the press conference Chair Powell reiterated that the FOMC was well positioned to respond to future developments and noted that he still expected to see meaningful tariff effects on consumer prices over the summer. Thursday, July 10 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 5 (GS 235k, last 233k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 28 (last 1,964k) 09:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at an event hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Moderated and audience Q&A is expected. On June 6th, Musalem noted that while tariffs could have only a temporary effect on inflation lasting “a quarter or two,” their impact on inflation could also “last longer,” and noted there was a “50-50” chance that either scenario takes place. Musalem stressed that “if market-implied and/or survey measures of medium- to long-term inflation expectations begin to rise, at that point it becomes very important to prioritise price stability.” 02:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at an event hosted by MNI. On June 26th, Daly said that her “modal outlook has been for some time that we would begin to be able to adjust the rates in the fall, and I haven’t really changed that view.” Daly also said she “saw three scenarios [on how tariffs affect inflation]: one scenario … is that it’s just delayed … the second is that it’s just delayed but it will be a one-off … and then the third, which … is not my modal but is increasingly possible, is that this just doesn’t amount to what the models in history would tell us because businesses find ways to absorb the cost, and they split it down the production chain, and ultimately consumers pay less of that.” Friday, July 11 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. Source: DB, Goldman, Barclays Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 10:20
Tariff Time Again: Trump Sends Trade Letters Ahead Of Deadline, Threatens 10% Tariff On BRICS-Aligned Nations Trade tensions are once again front and center for investors as President Trump's tariff deadline looms. On Sunday night, the president announced that the U.S. will begin sending tariff letters to major trading partners, warning of levies on countries that have yet to strike a deal. The president expects letters to be sent to 12 countries. Trump wrote on Truth Social: I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, President of The United States of America. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump will begin sending letters to U.S. trading partners, warning that if no agreement is reached, tariff rates will revert to April 2nd levels—set to take effect on August 1. Bessent noted that several major deals are nearing completion and that "big announcements" could be made this week. He added that around 100 smaller countries will be assigned a default tariff rate, many of which never engaged in negotiations with the Trump administration. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump said an additional 10% tariff will be imposed on any nation aligning with BRICS, the bloc of emerging market economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) seen as increasingly hostile to U.S. interests. Trump wrote on Truth Social: Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter! The 10-member bloc of emerging-market nations has increasingly positioned itself as a geopolitical and economic contender to the US-led global economic order, which is seen as fracturing as the world stumbles into a dangerous bipolar state. BRICS seeks to reduce the dominance of Western institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and the U.S. dollar system Trump has previously threatened countries that back a new reserve currency... "The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar, while we stand by and watch, is OVER," Trump wrote on X in late 2024. The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they… November 30, 2024 Goldman analyst Nelson Armbrust commented on Trump's tariff posts: Trade tensions are back in view as the tariff deadline approaches, with Trump pledging to start issuing unilateral rates to dozens of countries in the coming days. Stocks retreated at the start of a potentially volatile week as U.S. trading partners rushed to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration ahead of a July 9 tariff deadline. U.S. officials earlier signaled August 1 as the date for higher levies to kick in. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated some countries may be offered a three-week extension to negotiate. On a side note, over the weekend BRICS leaders, including China and India, condemned U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and called for a "just and lasting" resolution to conflicts across the Middle East. President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning with "the Anti-American policies of BRICS". Metals fell, the yuan weakened and the dollar rose 0.4% The inflection point appears to be the 2030s... The broader message is clear: the Trump administration is drawing a very hard line—it will not allow BRICS to dismantle the dollar-based global order. This is shaping up to be a fight for economic and geopolitical survival, as the White House moves to ensure the American experiment endures the challenges of a bipolar world in the 2030s. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 09:40
What Trump's Big Beautiful Bill Means For Your Wallet Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), The One Big Beautiful Bill, which President Donald Trump signed on Independence Day, ushers in significant changes to Americans’ personal finances. Spanning nearly 1,000 pages, the legislation locks in Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and introduces new tax breaks—including deductions for tips, overtime pay, and auto loan interest—while also offering a special $6,000 deduction for seniors who receive Social Security. At the same time, the Republican-backed bill enacts significant cuts to social programs such as Medicaid and food assistance, eliminates tax incentives for clean energy, and overhauls the federal student loan system. Speaking ahead of the final vote, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said, “For everyday Americans, this means real, positive change that they can feel.” Here’s what the measure could mean for your wallet. Tax Cuts At the heart of the legislation is the permanent extension of the tax cuts first enacted under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 during Trump’s first term. That law reduced marginal tax rates across the board, with most brackets seeing cuts of roughly 2 to 4 percent. Those tax cuts were set to expire after 2025 without congressional action, which could have resulted in higher taxes for more than 60 percent of taxpayers by 2026, according to a 2024 Tax Foundation report. The One Big Beautiful Bill not only preserves those tax reductions but enhances several key provisions. The standard deduction will increase to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married couples filing jointly. The estate and gift tax exemption rises to $15 million for individuals and $30 million for couples. The child tax credit grows to $2,200 per child starting in 2025, with up to $1,700 refundable, and future increases indexed to inflation. New Parents One of the bill’s novel features is the creation of new “Trump Accounts” for children born between 2025 and 2028. Under the provision, the federal government will make a one-time $1,000 deposit for every eligible child who is a U.S. citizen. Parents can contribute up to $5,000 annually, with investments growing tax-deferred in a fund that tracks a U.S. stock index. Employers can also chip in up to $2,500, contributions that won’t count as taxable income for the employee. Withdrawals from the accounts will be taxed as long-term capital gains if used for qualified purposes. Families With Children Families raising kids under 17 will see expanded tax relief under the bill. The child tax credit will increase from $2,000 to $2,200 per child starting in 2025 and will be indexed for inflation going forward. Up to $1,700 of that amount will be refundable, providing cash back even for families who owe little or no income tax. This change builds on Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which had doubled the credit from $1,000 to $2,000 but were scheduled to expire after 2025 without congressional action. With the One Big Beautiful Bill, the higher credit becomes permanent. Service Workers Workers in industries where tips make up a significant part of income will benefit from new tax breaks. The legislation allows individuals to deduct up to $25,000 of tip income annually from federal taxes between 2025 and 2028. The deduction phases out for individuals earning more than $150,000, or $300,000 for joint filers. Similarly, those working long hours will benefit from a temporary tax deduction for overtime pay. Single filers can deduct up to $12,500 in overtime income, while joint filers can deduct up to $25,000. The deduction phases out for higher earners and expires after 2028. Car Buyers The bill also provides relief for consumers purchasing American-made vehicles. Taxpayers will be able to deduct up to $10,000 in interest on new auto loans taken out between 2025 and 2028. The deduction phases out for individuals earning over $100,000, or $200,000 for married couples filing jointly. Eligible vehicles must be assembled in the United States, aligning the provision with Trump’s broader focus on supporting domestic manufacturing. Taxpayers in High-Tax States The legislation raises the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, which allow taxpayers who itemize to subtract what they’ve paid in state and local income and property taxes from their federal taxable income. This is particularly relevant for residents of high-tax states such as New York, New Jersey, and California. The bill raises the SALT cap from $10,000 to $40,000 starting in 2025. It will then rise by one percent annually through 2029 before reverting to $10,000 in 2030. However, the expanded deduction begins phasing out for taxpayers with income above $500,000. Lawmakers from high-tax states had pushed for the increase for years, arguing that the original $10,000 cap disproportionately impacted their constituents. Seniors Instead of fully eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, as Trump once floated, the bill provides a $6,000 annual deduction for Social Security income. The deduction phases out for individuals earning over $75,000 and couples earning over $150,000, and is unavailable to single filers earning $175,000 or more or joint filers above $250,000. The Social Security Administration estimates that nearly 90 percent of beneficiaries will see no federal taxes on their benefits under this change, describing the One Big Beautiful Bill as providing “meaningful and immediate relief to seniors who have spent a lifetime contributing to our nation’s economy.” The expanded tax breaks under the bill will reduce the overall tax burden on Social Security recipients by roughly $30 billion each year, according to an estimate by the Tax Foundation, which noted that this could accelerate the projected insolvency dates for the Social Security and Medicare trust funds by about a year. Student Borrowers For student loan borrowers, the legislation offers a mix of benefits and new restrictions. On the plus side, Pell Grants will expand to cover short-term, workforce-focused programs, broadening access for students pursuing nontraditional education paths. Yet the bill also imposes new borrowing caps. Graduate students will be restricted to $20,500 per year and a lifetime maximum of $100,000 for unsubsidized loans, while professional degrees such as law and medicine will face caps of $50,000 annually and $200,000 over a lifetime. Parent borrowing through Parent PLUS loans will be limited to $20,000 per year per child, with a lifetime ceiling of $65,000. Meanwhile, Grad PLUS loans—which once allowed graduate students to borrow up to the full cost of attendance—will be eliminated altogether. New borrowers will also have only two repayment options starting in mid-2026, either a standard fixed-payment plan or an income-driven repayment plan. The bill also eliminates deferments for unemployment or economic hardship, narrowing options for struggling borrowers to pause payments. Medicaid Recipients The legislation imposes significant changes to Medicaid, with about $1 trillion in cuts projected over the next decade, in part due to the fact that some 10 million people will lose coverage. The largest cuts stem from new work requirements for able-bodied adults ($326 billion), tighter limits on how states can fund their programs through provider taxes ($191 billion), and stricter rules for state-directed Medicaid payments ($149 billion), according to an analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation. The bill allocates $50 billion to support rural hospitals that could be affected by the cuts. People on Food Stamps Food assistance under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is also facing substantial changes. States will be required to contribute between 5 and 15 percent of SNAP benefit costs, depending on their payment error rates, and must now cover 75 percent of administrative costs, up from the current 50 percent. Work requirements will be expanded to include adults aged 55 to 64 and parents with children aged 14 and older. According to the Urban Institute, around 5.3 million households could see their benefits drop by at least $25 per month, with average monthly losses estimated at $146. Small Businesses and Gig Workers Small business owners, contractors, and gig economy workers will benefit from the permanent extension of the Section 199A pass-through business deduction. Originally enacted in Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, this provision allows certain business owners to deduct up to 20 percent of their qualified business income. The deduction, previously set to expire after 2025, is now permanent under the new law. Taken together, the One Big Beautiful Bill promises tax relief and new financial perks for millions of Americans—from young families to seniors—while tightening the belt on federal spending for programs such as Medicaid and SNAP. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 09:20
Proposed Gaza Ceasefire Details Revealed As Netanyahu Visits White House Monday With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to visit the White House on Monday for the third time in President Trump's second term, Associated Press has obtained a copy of the latest ceasefire proposal -- which now incorporates a personal guarantee from Trump that Israel won't violate this ceasefire as it did a previous one. Contrary to the wishes of Hamas, the proposed arrangement is a truce rather than an assured permanent end to the war, which has killed at least 55,000 people, according to Gaza's health authority, while rendering much of the territory uninhabitable. Here are the key provisions reported by AP: The deal centers on a 60-day ceasefire, during which Hamas would transfer 10 living captives to Israel along with 18 dead ones. It's believed Hamas is still holding upwards of 25 living hostages. While the ceasefire is going, the Israel Defense Forces would withdraw from Gaza to a buffer zone along the territory's Israeli and Egyptian borders. During that time, a major increase in humanitarian aid would flow into Gaza. Notably, it would be distributed by United Nations organizations and the Palestinian Red Cross. Since late May, a shadowy group led by a pro-Israel American evangelical who's a mutual friend of Trump and Netanyahu -- the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation -- has been taking the lead on aid distribution. The group and IDF have faced withering condemnation during that time, as hundreds of Palestinians have been killed at the distribution points, with IDF soldiers confirming they've been using deadly weapons as a barbaric form of crowd control. Also the ceasefire, negotiations for a permanent ceasefire would take place. One of many recent mass demonstrations in Tel Aviv demanding the Israeli government secure the return of the remaining hostages (Mostafa Alkharouf - Anadolu Agency via Middle East Monitor) Mostafa Alkharouf – Anadolu Agency One of the more interesting elements of the proposal is its inclusion of Trump's personal guarantee of Israel's compliance with the 60-day ceasefire. “President Trump guarantees Israel’s adherence," the document reads, noting that Trump "will personally announce the ceasefire agreement.” Israel violated the last ceasefire in March, resuming its attacks and blockading humanitarian aid. That prompted Yemen's Houthis to resume their attacks on Israeli-linked shipping and other targets, which in turn led to the United States engaging in a large and expensive military operation against the Houthis that will best be remembered for two F/A 18 Super Hornets ending up at the bottom of the sea. Talking to reporters beside Air Force One on Sunday, Trump sounded optimistic notes: "I think there's a good chance we have a deal with Hamas during the coming week, pertaining to quite a few of the hostages....We think we'll have that done this week." On Friday, Hamas announced that it had delivered a "positive" response to the latest US-backed ceasefire and hostage release proposal. ‘We’re close to a deal on Gaza, we could have it THIS WEEK’ – Trump ‘I think there’s a good chance we have a deal with Hamas during the week’ The Don seems confident he’ll get some of the remaining hostages released pic.twitter.com/DCV0pclf25 July 6, 2025 “There are 20 hostages that are alive, 30 dead. I am determined, we are determined, to bring them all back. And we will also be determined to ensure that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel,” said Netanyahu before leaving Israel for the United States. While the international community and some domestic elements are pressuring him to secure a permanent ceasefire, Netanyahu faces intense pressure from within his own ruling coalition to continue the war. On Sunday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich lashed out at Netanyahu after the cabinet decided to allow more aid to flow into the besieged, diseased and malnourished territory, saying it would route of the aid "also benefits Hamas." In January, Smotrich threatened to collapse Netanyahu's government by withdrawing his Religious Zionism Party if Netanyahu ended the war without completely eradicating Hamas as a political and military force in Gaza. You can also expect the public elements of Netanyahu's White House visit to include an emphatic round of self-congratulations in the wake of last month's Israel-initiated war on Iran, which was launched just two days before US and Iranian delegations were set to conduct their sixth round of negotiations over the country's nuclear program, which Iran insists is peaceful -- a claim that's been repeatedly echoed by the US intelligence community since 2007. As the experience of several foreign leaders has shown, however, Oval Office visits hold the possibility of public embarrassment. That risk to Netanyahu may be elevated on Monday, as Trump has faced widespread social media ridicule from a significant swath of the American right, which views him as being easily manipulated and disrespected by Netanyahu. He could view the public session as a chance to demonstrate dominance. This was Trump when he was told Israel was immediately violating the ceasefire that ended last month's 12-day war: ⚡️#BREAKING Trump: "We have two countries (Israel and Iran) that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they are doing" pic.twitter.com/snYs8IhLiB June 24, 2025 On his last visit in April, Netanyahu had to sit and endure Trump's public announcement that the United States would engage in direct discussions with Iran. It's been reported that Netanyahu had used that visit to pitch Trump on assaulting Iran, an idea Trump rejected. According to some accounts, Netanyahu in June unilaterally decided to attack Iran anyway, with Trump then bending to Israel's agenda and providing military support. Trump seems eager to "move on" from the war on Iran. However, with the toppling of the Iranian government having been a goal of Netanyahu and his US allies for decades now, we can expect he'll use his visit to continue trying to maneuver Trump into breaking his campaign pledge to refrain from Middle East regime-change operations. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 09:00
Futures Drop Ahead Of July 9 Tariff Deadline US equity futures are weaker with investors on edge about the potential for more tariffs from the Trump administration as we head into the July 9 deadline which appears to have been rolled to Aug 1. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 contracts declined 0.2% although well off session lows after Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that some countries may get a three-week extension to trade negotiations. Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.4% with small caps underperforming but tech is being dragged by TSLA sliding 6% after Elon Musk announced he will form a new political party. Apple (-1.0%) after phone shipments from China in May were down 9.7% Y/Y for the tranche that includes iPhones. Semis/Cyclicals under pressure. Trump said either a deal will be done, or a country will get a letter on Monday with 12 letters set to be sent today. Additionally, the president said late on Sunday that Anyone aligning with BRICS "Anti-American" stance is subject to an additional 10% tariff. Oil was flat, rebounding from session lows after OPEC+ did another supply hike, this time for 548k bpd. Yield curve is twisting steeper, USD stronger, and cmdtys declining (Ags, metals). This is a light macro data week into next week’s CPI and kick off to earnings season. In premarket trading, Mag7 stocks were mixed: Tesla was the biggest drag among Magnificent 7 stocks, falling 6%, as President Donald Trump slams Elon Musk’s bid to form a new political party (Microsoft +0.1%, Amazon +0.09%, Meta Platforms -0.3%, Apple -0.5%, Alphabet -0.5%, Nvidia -0.7%). Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) gains 20% after saying the Phase 2 Apex part A trial of APG777 in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis met all primary and key secondary endpoints. Cogent Biosciences (COGT) rises 23% after announcing positive top-line results from the Summit trial of bezuclastinib in patients with non-advanced systemic mastocytosis. CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) slides 1.8% in premarket trading as Piper Sandler cut the software company to neutral from overweight after it surpassed the investment bank’s price target. Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of MGM Resorts International (MGM -1.8%) with a recommendation of sell due to a volatile Las Vegas market, while Caesars Entertainment (CZR -0.5%) gets a buy rating. Geo Group (GEO) gains 6% and CoreCivic (CXW) climbs 4% after the Senate and House of Representatives approved Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill that will add billions of dollars for immigrant detention centers. MGM Resorts International (MGM) slips 1.8% after Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of with a recommendation of sell due to a volatile Las Vegas market. Progressive Corp. (PGR) declines 1% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the insurance company to equal-weight as competition increases. Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS) rises 4.7% after Jefferies upgraded its recommendation on the renewable energy equipment company to buy, saying President Donald Trump’s tax-and-spend legislation will spur short-term activity in solar. WNS Holdings Ltd. (WNS) soars 14% after France’s Capgemini SE plans to acquire IT outsourcing company for $3.3 billion in cash. Trade tensions are back on investors’ radar, with Trump pledging to impose unilateral rates on dozens of countries in the coming days. US officials have signaled Aug. 1 as the start date for higher levies, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated some countries may be offered a three-week extension. The deadline “will create near-term uncertainty,” noted Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International. “But the letters are meant as an incentive for other countries to agree to come to a deal quickly. Any dips in risky assets should be used as a buying opportunity.” The dollar rose 0.4%, putting the greenback on course for its biggest advance in three weeks on growing trade fears. Emerging-market currencies fell, with the South African rand sliding 1%, after US President Donald Trump warned he would add extra tariffs on any country that aligns with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS.” European stocks gained with the Stoxx 600 climbs 0.2% with insurance, travel and financial services as the strongest-performing sectors. DAX outperforms peers, adding 0.6%. Shell and Capgemini are the day’s most notable movers, the former falling on a second-quarter update while the latter retreats after announcing it will acquire US firm WNS. Here are the biggest movers Monday: Swissquote shares increase as much as 6.4%, the most since April 10, after the Swiss financial services company bought out partner PostFinance and took complete control of digital finance app Yuh Bilfinger rises as much as 5.6% after analysts at Bankhaus Metzler raised their price target on the industrial services business to a new Street-high, arguing it has stronger pricing power than previously thought European shipping companies are outperforming on Monday after Israel launched airstrikes on Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen, raising the prospect of higher freight rates if shippers avoid the Red Sea Shell shares fall as much as 3.2% after the oil giant’s second-quarter update pointed to a weaker performance than anticipated, which is set to hit earnings expectations, according to analysts Capgemini shares fall as much as 4.4% to the lowest since April 30 after the French IT firm said it will acquire business process management company WNS Holdings for $3.3b in cash Stellantis falls as much as 3.3% as Bank of America cuts the automaker to neutral from buy, with the broker expecting to see a “very weak” first-half report on July 29, as well as bad positioning in Europe Currys drops as much as 7.2% after RBC downgrades to hold, saying the UK consumer-electronics retailer’s valuation is “more reasonable now” after strong gains for the shares since late 2023 Pandora shares fall as much as 2.3% after the Danish jeweler is downgraded to hold at HSBC, which cites a lack of short-term positive catalysts; Broker also cuts price target to DKK1,250 from DKK1,450 Pantheon Resources shares drop as much as 12% after the oil and gas producer raised cash through a placing and subscription priced at a discount to Friday’s close Krones shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since April, after Oddo BHF downgraded the German manufacturer of packaging and bottling machines to neutral from outperform European medical technology stocks pare drop, with Philips reversing declines, after China hit back at the European Union’s restrictions on its medical device makers. Analysts see limited impact from the curbs Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as investors remained on edge ahead of the deadline for President Donald Trump’s pause on reciprocal tariffs, even after the administration hinted at possible extensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.8%, the most in two weeks, with TSMC and Samsung Electronics among the biggest drags. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Japan underperformed. Stocks dropped in Malaysia and Thailand after news that the US plans to restrict shipments of AI chips to these nations. Trump’s latest threat to charge an additional 10% tariff on any country aligning themselves with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS” caused further uncertainty Monday. Still, investors are waiting to see what actually happens. “Reactions are often short-lived, especially as he usually fails to deliver on his threats,” said Vey-Sern Ling, a managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. Japan’s 30-year yield surged 10 basis points to 2.96% on concerns that the outcome of this month’s upper house election may result in bigger fiscal spending. US Treasuries were little changed, with the 10-year yield at 4.35% “Treasuries are starting to find their footing a bit, but the problem is if the tariff impact on inflation comes back and the Fed needs to back-pedal, at least temporarily, I think Treasuries, unfortunately, are also a bit vulnerable,” Christian Mueller-Glissman, head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told Bloomberg TV. In FX, the dollar extends gains, outperforming most of its G-10 peers in anticipation of US tariff letters from today. EM currencies slump, with the South African rand and Indian rupee among the session’s laggards after President Trump said any country aligning with BRICS’ “Anti-American policies” would face an additional 10% tariff. In rates, treasuries are mixed with the yield curve steeper after US officials signaled that trading partners will have until Aug 1 before tariffs kick in, about three weeks beyond their July 9 deadline to reach agreements. Bonds are relatively muted versus other assets, with slight outperformance seen in gilts across the curve compared to Treasuries and bunds. Front-end yields are about 1bp richer on the day with long-end tenors cheaper by ~2bp, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by 2bp-3bp. 10-year near 4.3576% is 1bp higher, outperforming German counterpart by 1bp and lagging UK by 1bp. Japan’s 30-year yield surged 10 basis points to 2.96% on concerns that the outcome of this month’s upper house election may result in bigger fiscal spending. US Treasuries were little changed, with the 10-year yield at 4.35%. Treasury auction calendar resumes Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year notes, followed by $39 billion 10-year notes and $22 billion 30-year bonds Wednesday and Thursday. In commodities, Brent crude futures erase losses, trading up 0.3% to above $68/bbl even after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month. Spot gold fell $28 to trade near $3,309/oz. “OPEC’s production pivot, after years of cutting output, is a sign that they remain confident over demand,” wrote Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “This is good news for inflation across the world.” Looking at today's calendar, the US economic data slate is empty for Monday. Fed speaker slate also blank, with Musalem and Daly schedule later in the week Market Snapshot S&P 500 mini -0.2% Nasdaq 100 mini -0.4% Russell 2000 mini -0.3% Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2% DAX +0.5% CAC 40 little changed 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.35% VIX +0.4 points at 17.83 Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.5% at 1196.42 euro -0.4% at $1.1727 WTI crude -0.3% at $66.8/barrel Top Overnight News Trump has warned that any country embracing the “anti-American policies” of the Brics bloc of nations will face an extra 10% tariff on exports, in a new threat at the start of a pivotal week for Trump’s trade war. FT TSLA -6.7% in the pre mkt after Elon Musk said he formed a new “America Party” and hinted it may back a presidential candidate, as well as noted that increasing the deficit from USD 2tln under Biden to USD 2.5tln is insane and will bankrupt the US. Trump derided the effort, calling it “ridiculous.” BBG Tariffs will revert back to their April 2 rates on Aug. 1 for countries that fail to nail down new trade deals with the United States, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday. The announcement pushes back on the original deadline of July 9. Politico Trump will have dinner with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House as he seeks to put Israel and Hamas on a path toward ending the war in Gaza this week. Indirect talks between the two sides started in Qatar, the AFP reported. BBG Trump’s administration plans to restrict shipments of AI chips from the likes of Nvidia Corp. to Malaysia and Thailand, part of an effort to crack down on suspected semiconductor smuggling into China. BBG EU-China tensions ramped up. Beijing said it will exclude EU-based companies from Chinese government procurement for certain medical devices, while France’s Finance Minister urged tariff barriers to counter Chinese imports. BBG China is reviewing and approving applications for exports of controlled items to the U.S., as Beijing and Washington speed up the implementation of their trade framework, the Chinese commerce ministry said. American officials have informed China that they are lifting a series of restrictive trade measures, a ministry spokesperson said Friday. WSJ Japanese real wages in May fell at the fastest pace in nearly two years as persistent inflation continued to outpace wage growth and hinder consumption-led growth in the world's fourth-largest economy, government data showed on Monday. RTRS German industrial production unexpectedly rose 1.2% in May from a month earlier, suggesting companies rushed production before potentially much higher tariffs on exports to the US. BBG Corporate News President Donald Trump blasted Elon Musk’s bid to start a new political party, intensifying a feud between former allies and deepening investors’ concerns about implications for Tesla Inc. and other companies led by the world’s richest man. France’s Capgemini SE plans to acquire IT outsourcing firm WNS Holdings Ltd. for $3.3 billion, beating rival suitors to a deal aimed at expanding its AI operations. Apple Inc. appealed a €500 million ($580 million) fine from the European Union, calling the penalty “unprecedented” and the regulator’s required changes to its App Store as “unlawful.” Shell Plc said its second-quarter trading results in both gas and oil will be significantly lower than the previous three months, in an indication of how major energy companies have navigated recent market volatility. Nissan Motor Co. plans to sell about $5 billion in debt to help fund Chief Executive Officer Ivan Espinosa’s turnaround of the ailing automaker, part of a broader financing initiative to keep operations on track. Billionaire Richard Li’s FWD Group Holdings Ltd. rose in its trading debut in Hong Kong after raising HK$3.5 billion ($442 million) in an initial public offering. Tariffs/Trade Trump said trade letters are signed and are going out on Monday addressed to 12 countries but declined to say which countries or the different tariff levels involved. Trump later commented that they will have a deal or letter with most nations done by July 9th and could send out 12 or 15 letters on tariffs on Monday. Trump posted "I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7th" Trump posted "Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy." Bessent said Trump will send letters to trading partners notifying them if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels with the tariffs to take effect on August 1st, while Bessent added that they are close to several deals and expect to see some big announcements in the next days. Furthermore, Bessent said 100 smaller countries will get set a tariff rate and many never even contacted the US. Russian President Putin told BRICS through a video link that it is important to enhance cooperation at BRICS and the usage of national currencies, while he commented that the liberal globalisation model is becoming obsolete. White House Economic Adviser Hassett said it is possible that some trade negotiations will push past the deadline, while he added that trade deals with the UK and Vietnam provide guidelines for additional agreements with other countries, according to a CBS interview. EU diplomats said on Friday that EU negotiators failed to achieve a breakthrough in US trade talks and negotiations to continue into the weekend, while EU negotiators were looking to secure a US tariff pause extension if no wider trade deal is agreed. It was also separately reported that the US threatened the EU with a 17% tariff on food exports, according to FT. Japan’s tariff negotiator Akazawa held in-depth phone talks with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday and Saturday, according to Japan’s government. Japanese automakers are reportedly exploring all options to help reduce trade imbalances with the US, via Nikkei; one idea is Toyota Motor (7203 JT) importing cars made in the US back to Japan. China retaliated against the EU ban regarding public tenders for medical devices by imposing import restrictions on medical devices. China’s Finance Ministry said it is to exclude imports of medical devices exceeding CNY 45mln from the European Union from July 6th, while imports of medical devices from non-EU countries should not contain EU-made components worth more than 50% of the contract value. India and the US are likely to take the final decision on a mini trade deal in the next 24-48 hours (reported on Sunday), with an average tariff under the mini trade deal likely to be 10%, while talks have currently only been completed on a mini-trade deal and negotiations on a larger bilateral trade agreement will begin after July 9th, according to CNBC-TV18. Thailand is to offer the US more trade concessions to avert a 36% tariff with Thailand’s Finance Minister expected to submit the revised orders before July 9th with a proposal to boost bilateral trade volume and reduce Thailand’s USD 46bln trade surplus with the US by 70% within 5 years, according to Bloomberg. South African Trade Department spokesperson says it remains committed to a trade deal with the US; conversations are constructive and fruitful. US-Indonesia trade deal includes buying US soybean, corn and energy products, according to an official. German government spokesperson says time is money when it comes to tariff negotiations; adds, Chancellor Merz is coordinating with EU President von der Leyen, Italy PM Meloni, and French PM Macron on tariff talks. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk APAC stocks were mostly subdued following a lack of bullish catalysts from over the weekend and with the region cautious ahead of upcoming key events, including central bank announcements and the July 9th tariff deadline. ASX 200 marginally retreated amid weakness in miners and as gold producers suffered due to a decline in the precious metal, although the downside in the broader market was limited by resilience in defensives and ahead of tomorrow's RBA announcement where the central bank is widely expected to deliver a consecutive 25bps rate cut. Nikkei 225 was pressured following softer-than-expected growth in Labour Cash Earnings which resulted in the largest decline in Japan's real wages in almost two years, while automakers were weighed on by the ongoing US tariff threat. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the uninspired mood amid trade uncertainty and frictions with China retaliating against the EU ban on public tenders for medical devices by imposing import restrictions on medical devices. Top Asian News China released a plan to expand the domestic service industry and help promote rural revitalisation. China signed an agreement with Brazil to strengthen cooperation in infrastructure, medicine and new energy. US President Trump said they pretty much have a deal on TikTok and the US will start talks with China regarding TikTok on Monday or Tuesday. It was separately reported that TikTok is building a new version of the app planned for the US with the existing app to eventually shut down in the US in March 2026, according to The Information. South Korea passed an expanded extra budget worth KRW 31.8tln. European bourses began the session with modest gains but overall action is choppy/tentative as we await trade updates, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; awaiting Trump to send the letters to 12-15 nations today and clarity on whether the July 9th tariffs have been pushed to August 1st, as commentary indicates. Sectors are mixed and split down the middle, Energy names show the deepest pressure after OPEC+ increased oil output more than expected at its weekend meeting, sources signalling further supply increases at the upcoming August meeting; furthermore, Shell (+2.8%) trimmed production guidance for Q2 across LNG and integrated gas. Insurance names outperform, benefitting from a broker upgraded to Generali (+1.5%) while Travel & Leisure names cheer lower crude benchmarks this morning, in the first part of the session at least. Top European News UK Chancellor Reeves has warned ministers that taxes will need to increase after the government U-turned on its welfare bill, despite repeated pledges not to increase the taxes of working people, according to CityAM. UK ministers are to launch a GBP 500mln scheme to help struggling families, according to FT. EU is to stockpile critical minerals due to war risk, according to FT. ECB's Centeno says he "does not know if 25bps will do the trick", says risks remain tilted to the downside. Current stance will remain restrictive at 2% if output does not recover, via Econostream's X; amount and timing of further cuts is difficult to say. Big risk that the investment level will be short of projections. Article adds: a correction in EUR/USD is likely if the economy is too weak to support appreciation; undershooting inflation is currently the main risk for the ECB and it is conceivable to cut or pause at the July meeting. ECB's Nagel says, on the German economy, growth at the start of the year was stronger than anticipated. "the German economy faces significant headwinds in the short term. Nevertheless, there are grounds for cautious optimism as we look to the future." UBS expects the ECB to cut by 25bps in its July meeting; adds, if there is a benign outcome in EU trade talks, will abandon forecast for a July cut. FX USD firmer vs all major peers. Strength comes despite uncertainty on the trade front as we await the tariff letters. Instead, the USD is potentially drawing support from the pro-Dollar approach the administration is taking as Trump threatened an additional 10% tariff on nations aligning themselves with "Anti-American policies of BRICS"; DXY at a 97.439 peak, marginally taking out last week's 97.42 best. Antipodeans suffer the most given the risk tone, though specific newsflow has been light. However, this will pickup with the RBA and RBNZ rate decisions due on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. JPY hit by the USD and softer-than-expected domestic wage data which has further trimmed the odds of a BoJ hike by end-2025, now at sub-50%. USD/JPY as high as 145.48, looking to 145.95 from June 25th. GBP also suffers. Pressure remains on the Pound after the PMQ-sparked sell off for UK assets last week. Since, reports suggest the Chancellor has told the Cabinet taxes will need to increase. Otherwise, UK specific news light and potentially to remain the case as the UK already has a US deal. GBP/USD sub-1.36 to a 1.3576 base. EUR also hit, though not to quite the same degree as the above peers; EUR/USD at the low-end of a 1.1723 to 1.1790 band. Single currency attentive to the imminent trade letters, as newsflow in recent days has been on the negative side. Elsewhere, a handful of ECB speakers on the wires but nothing that has fundamentally shifted the narrative. PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1506 vs exp. 7.1626 (Prev. 7.1535). PBoC surveyed financial institutions about their views on recent USD weakness, according Reuters sources; did not explicitly state the purpose of the survey but once source said they interpreted it as a sign authorities are concerned about sharp CNY appreciation Fixed Income Generally speaking, contained two-way trade into Trump's tariff letters. USTs had a firmer start, posting gains of around five ticks though this waned alongside pressure in EGBs into/after the European cash equity open. Since, developments have been light as we await a tariff update. Holding around the unchanged mark in a 111-05+ to 111-12+ band. Bunds also contained at first, but then succumbed to around 10 ticks of pressure on strong German industrial data. However, this was then quickly retraced and Bunds lifted to a 130.62 peak before waning into and after the cash equity open, to a 130.19 low. No move to Sentix or ECB speakers since, but Bunds have managed to pick themselves up off worst but remain in the red. Gilts the marginal outperformer. No tariff update expected, as the UK already has a deal. The reported honesty from the Chancellor around the need for tax increases potentially welcome by Gilts, with gains of around 25 ticks at best; however, they remain shy of Friday's 92.79 best and markedly shy of Wednesday’s pre-PMQs 93.41 peak. As a reminder, BoE Gilt ops. recommence today with a short-term offering. Commodities Crude began on the backfoot, with modest discrepancy in terms of performance amid the lack of settlement. Follows on from OPEC+ action at the weekend which saw a larger than expected supply increase and further bearish sources via Reuters since (outlined in detail below), updates that pushed WTI and Brent to lows of USD 65.40/bbl and USD 67.22/bbl. Across the European morning benchmarks had been gradually lifting off lows, potentially driven by a refocussing on Saudi lifting its August OSPs by more than expected and/or a fading of some of the OPEC+ driven pressure. More recently, a modest bounce to highs of USD 67.04/bbl and USD 68.72/bbl has occurred, though with no clear fundamental driver behind the move. Metals await trade updates. Despite the tepid risk tone, XAU is under pressure this morning hit by the USD strength. XAU down to USD 3300/oz at worst, but is currently holding modestly off that low. A base that takes XAU back to support from the last few weeks at USD 3255/oz and USD 3246/oz. Base metals also in the red, with the tepid tone and USD strength weighing. 3M LME Copper is under pressure, drifting further from the USD 10k mark it reclaimed on July 1st, hit a three-month peak at USD 10.02k in the following session and since has been on a downward trajectory. Today, as low as USD 9.77k OPEC+ said eight member countries agreed to raise oil output by 548k bpd in August (prev. 411k bpd increases) and will next meet on August 3rd. OPEC+ "will likely" approve another output increase of around 550k BPD for September, according to Reuters sources; September hike will complete the return of 2.17mln BPD in voluntary output cuts. A September hike would also accommodate 300k BPD production quota rise for the UAE. Saudi Arabia set the August Arab light crude to Asia at plus USD 2.20/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, while it set the OSP to NW Europe at plus USD 4.65 vs ICE Brent and set the OSP to the US at plus USD 3.90 vs ASCI. Qatar set the August Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.40/bbl and Land Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.30. Geopolitics: Middle East Israeli military issued an evacuation order to people at Yemen’s ports of Hodeidah, Ras Isa and Al-Salif, as well as to those inside the Hodeidah power station, while it announced to carry out airstrikes in those areas due to military activities being conducted there. Israel's Defence Minister later confirmed military strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen's ports of Hodeidah, Salif, Ras Isa, as well as the Ras Qatib power plant A Liberia-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier was attacked 51NM off Yemen’s Hodeidah, while the UKMTO later announced that all crew abandoned a ship that was attacked southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah. Israeli PM’s office said the changes requested by Hamas to the Qatari proposal are not acceptable to Israel, while the negotiating team will depart to Qatar for Gaza talks. Israeli PM Netanyahu said he is determined to ensure hostages’ return to Israel and remove the Hamas threat from Gaza, while he said his negotiators in ceasefire talks have clear instructions to achieve an agreement under conditions Israel has accepted. Furthermore, Netanyahu said ahead of his White House meeting that he believes the discussion with US President Trump can certainly help advance these results. US President Trump said he will discuss Iran with Israeli PM Netanyahu and noted Iran’s nuclear program was set back permanently but they may restart in a different location, while Trump also said there could be a Gaza deal during the week ahead. First session of indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended inconclusively and the Israeli delegation does not have sufficient mandate to reach an agreement with Hamas as it has no real power, according to two Palestinian officials cited by Reuters. Hamas government office rejected a US State Department accusation that Hamas was involved in an attack on Americans at a Gaza Humanitarian Foundation site on Saturday. UK government re-established diplomatic relations with Syria. The second round of (Israel-Hamas) negotiations in Doha will begin this afternoon, via Al Arabiya sources. Subsequently, there is reportedly a positive atmosphere in Israel-Hamas negotiations, no breakthrough so far, according to Al Hadath. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump said they won’t be sending patriot missiles to Ukraine but talked about it and noted they have to be protected, while he said Russian President Putin is worried about sanctions and understands it may be coming. Russian military forces gained control of Sobolivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and Piddubne in Donetsk region. Russian Foreign Minister says Russia does not need a temporary ceasefire, but rather a lasting peace. US Event Calendar Nothing on the calendar DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 08:27
Are We Training Kids To Beat AI - Or Training AI To Beat Kids? Authored by Kay Rubacek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Commentary In a world racing to build smarter machines, a group of children just reminded us what real intelligence looks like. Various AI apps are seen on a smartphone screen in a file photo. Olivier Morin/AFP via Getty Images At the University of Washington, researchers recently put a group of 7- to 11-year-olds to the test. Their goal wasn’t to teach kids how to use artificial intelligence—but how to outthink it. The children were asked to solve a series of visual logic puzzles—problems designed to test abstract reasoning, not memorization. Then they compared their answers to what generative AI tools like ChatGPT produced. The results were telling. While the AI confidently offered incorrect answers, the children spotted the flaws almost immediately. Some even began “debugging” the machine—rewording prompts, testing different versions, and analyzing patterns of failure. One 9-year-old summed it up perfectly: “AI just keeps guessing.” These kids weren’t fooled by the polished tone or fast responses. They were thinking for themselves. And they were winning. That’s worth celebrating. But it’s also worth pausing to consider what happens next. Behind the scenes, companies like OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic are racing to make AI capable of reasoning better than humans. They’re not just aiming for machines that sound smart—they want machines that are smart: systems that can solve complex problems, reflect on their own logic, and outperform us in every mental task. And the only way to get there is by learning from us. In this case, that means learning from children. This study, which was designed to help kids recognize AI’s flaws, could just as easily become the blueprint for closing the gap. AI engineers now have a clear map of where children outperform machines—and how. It’s not hard to imagine that knowledge being used to train the next version of AI to “think more like a human child,” or worse—outthink one. We’ve seen this pattern before. Human chess games trained the computers that now dominate grandmasters. Human drivers trained the algorithms powering self-driving cars. Human writing trained the large language models we rely on today. So it’s not alarmist to ask: are we preparing our children to stay ahead—or are we giving AI the edge to surpass them? This is the danger of our current trajectory: we are building increasingly powerful technologies while neglecting building equally powerful wisdom in the people who use them. Most adults today struggle to question what AI tells them—especially when it sounds confident. We were never taught how. But these children, thanks to a visual puzzle and a curious mind, saw what many grown-ups can’t: that sounding smart isn’t the same as being smart. That’s the lesson we should be scaling, not just in schools but in society. In the age of artificial intelligence, the greatest form of defense isn’t a better app or a smarter algorithm. It’s a brain that knows when something doesn’t add up. That’s what these children had and that’s what every parent, educator, and legislator should be fighting to protect: a child’s ability to think clearly, question confidently, and trust their own reasoning—even when the machine says otherwise. Because the real danger isn’t that AI will become smarter than us. It’s that we’ll stop teaching our children how to be smart in the first place. Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 08:05
Wall Street Responds To 'America Party'; Musk Denies, Calls Party Filing 'Fake News' Tesla shares tumbled in premarket trading in New York as investors weighed Elon Musk's move to launch the new "America Party," just one day after President Trump signed a tax-cut and spending bill into law—legislation Musk had publicly denounced. Although Musk has denied founding the party, calling the reports "fake news," the market appears unconvinced. Tesla's stock, already down 22% year-to-date as of Thursday's close, is poised to lose another 7% if premarket losses carry into the cash trading session. Wall Street analysts are concerned that Musk is "diving deeper into politics," which could damage the brand, weaken demand, or further distract him from Tesla's core EV and robotics units. Here's what some on Wall Street are saying, via Bloomberg: Wedbush (Dan Ives) "Very simply Musk diving deeper into politics and now trying to take on the Beltway establishment is exactly the opposite direction that Tesla investors/ shareholders want him to take during this crucial period for the Tesla story" With the autonomous future ahead and the AI revolution in full force, Musk should avoid acts of provocation. Trump can create more hurdles for Musk as well as Tesla and SpaceX if the political battle intensifies heading into mid-term elections in 2026 "We remain firmly bullish on Tesla's AI future but clearly this is not the news we want to see as it adds another perceived overhang to the stock" Maintains outperform on stock with a price target at $500 Global X ETFs (Billy Leung) "This probably isn't what Tesla investors were hoping for. Musk just got back to focusing on the business and the stock was rallying. Now he's dragging it into another political headline cycle" For the stock, the move raises noise and volatility in the short term while long term, the core thesis for Tesla is still about AI, robotics, and autonomy — the political distractions don't really dent that Rayliant Global Advisors (Jason Hsu) This may be Musk's best route to protect what he has built once he realizes that his relationship with Trump has soured beyond repair. Without gaining meaningful political power, Musk and his companies remain exposed and highly at risk "Backing a few select congressional candidates won't do enough to give Musk political protection. But forming a party and aiming to play the middle is a much bigger game with a significantly larger impact and payoff" For the shares, expect some initial volatility as some investors would be concerned with Musk's distraction and many probably don't see this as the best move to protect Tesla from the wrath of the Trump administration Goldman analyst Nelson Armbrust provided clients with a summary of the weekend events: Musk said on Saturday that a new "America Party" he'd been threatening to launch was formed, a day after Trump signed a tax-cut and spending bill into law that Musk had denounced. He didn't provide details of the political party and there's no immediate indication that he has filed official paperwork. Tesla's stock, which has lost more than 20% this year, is poised to fall further: The company's shares slumped as much as 7.6% in premarket trading on Monday. Armbrust also shared a chart with clients, highlighting Tesla's price action during the "good times" of the Musk-Trump relationship, pinpointing the inflection point where tensions began to deteriorate, which corresponded with a drag on the share price. Musk has voiced deep frustration with GOP lawmakers over their failure to codify DOGE cuts and President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," which was signed into law on Independence Day. By Sunday, Musk's team submitted a filing to create the America Party... BREAKING - FEC paperwork has been filed to create the “America Party,” but the listed treasurer is an Indian-born man named Vaibhav Taneja. pic.twitter.com/re9bmLdnxv July 6, 2025 On Truth Social, Trump responded to Musk... However, Musk chimed in late Sunday and called the America Party filing with the Federal Election Commission fake news. This filing is false and has been reported as such to the FEC July 6, 2025 . . . Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 07:45
Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestm,entAdvice.com, Retail investor greed again dominates market activity, echoing some of the same speculative behaviors seen during previous risk-on phases. Retail investors show heightened risk appetite across multiple metrics, from options trading to leveraged ETF flows, with little regard for valuation or macroeconomic headwinds. Put/call ratios are flashing strong bullish sentiment, with the SPY ratio hovering around 0.79, reflecting an imbalance toward calls over puts. Investor greed primarily drives this skew, particularly in names and sectors associated with high momentum or popular narratives. “Despite the looming July 9th trade negotiation deadline, not much is priced into the SPX vol surface for the event, suggesting investors either expect a positive resolution or for the deadline to be extended. Interestingly, the flattening in skew was mostly concentrated in the front-month, suggesting this was mostly positioning-driven FOMO-type call buying. Longer-dated skew remains steep in comparison.” – CBOE The surge in call option volumes has occurred across semiconductor plays, especially in leveraged vehicles like SOXL, the 3x bullish semiconductor ETF, where open interest in call options far exceeds puts. Similar patterns are emerging in thematic ETFs like RETL (3x retail) and DRN (3x real estate), which are seeing elevated daily volume despite mixed performance. This appetite for leverage is being pushed further with the proliferation of single-stock leveraged ETFs, such as HIMZ, a leveraged play on HIMS, which saw a dramatic 70% collapse after a corporate announcement, highlighting how retail speculation often ignores risk asymmetry. Investor greed is also evident in flows to speculative and penny stocks. Retail inflows into U.S. equities have topped $70 billion year-to-date, with much of that concentrated in highly volatile names like Palantir, MicroStrategy, and other crypto-adjacent or AI-linked plays. Penny stocks and small caps, traditionally the domain of risk-seeking traders, have also seen outsized gains in short bursts, primarily driven by social media chatter and retail momentum chasing. At the same time, investors are doubling down on speculative trades even after short-term losses, reflecting a “buy-the-dip” mindset that prioritizes quick returns over fundamental analysis. Supporting this activity are broader ETF flow dynamics. Retail-focused providers like Vanguard have seen their share of total U.S. ETF inflows jump to 37%, up from 27% a year earlier. Leveraged equity ETF flows reached a five-year high this past spring and have remained elevated through Q2. Meanwhile, tighter bid-ask spreads and more retail-accessible platforms are enabling higher trade volume with lower friction, further fueling this behavior. However, it isn’t just retail investor greed driving the market. While a bit late to the party, professional investor sentiment and positioning have surged higher, helping the recent push of the markets to all-time highs. While retail and professional exuberance fueled the market’s rise, it also introduces fragility. Leveraged ETFs suffer from compounding decay in volatile markets, and speculative trades can unwind violently, as HIMZ demonstrated. While momentum can extend rallies, the resulting reversals are often sharp when sentiment turns. Optimism is working in the Bulls’ favor, but the warning signs of overreach are mounting. It won’t take much for a decent price correction, which could begin as soon as next week. Trade accordingly. 📈 Nasdaq 2025 Tracking 2020 I have noted many times previously that I hate market analogs. The reason is that they require “cherry-picking” starting and ending points to make the correlation. However, there are times when analogs can help display similarities between market performance periods and investor greed or fear. The following chart of the Nasdaq in 2020 and 2025 is a good example of the latter. As shown, the onset of the pandemic led to a 35% decline in March of that year. The market then bottomed and began a sharp rally into the end of 2020, and further in 2021. As shown, in 2025, the Nasdaq is tracing out a similar pattern with the decline in March and early April, and the subsequent rebound through the end of June. This is undoubtedly an encouraging analogy for the bulls, suggesting that the market has plenty of runway left for the rest of 2025. However, this is why I personally dislike analogs like this because it assumes that just because something occurred in the past, it will repeat identically in the future. The problem is that the analysis lacks the data that supported the previous rally. The table below details some of the differences between 2020 and today. It is also critical to remember that during 2020, sporting events from football to horse racing were shuttered, leaving only the stock market as a viable outlet for gamblers to place bets. Armed with a Robinhood account, a $1500 stimulus check, and a “bad attitude”, investors flocked into the financial markets chasing some of the speculative corners of the market. Of course, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates to ZERO, injecting a $120 billion a month into the financial system, and ensuring the junk bond market functioned, it is unsurprising that markets quickly recovered from their lows. The fascinating thing about 2025 is that the market “feels” much like it did in 2020, but the backdrop is entirely opposite. The Fed is maintaining elevated interest rates, reducing its balance sheet, and fiscal support for the country continues to reverse. Yet, even with monetary and fiscal policy absent, the market is rallying with seemingly the same reckless abandon. Will the 2025 analog continue to mirror 2020? Maybe. But with valuations elevated and the economy slowing, I would bet that the analog breaks sooner than later. Be careful taking analogs at face value. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 07:20
Texas Flood Disaster: 81 Dead As Search Intensifies; Cloud Seeding Startup Denies Involvement The flash flood that sent a 30-foot wall of water surging down the Guadalupe River in Central Texas has claimed at least 81 lives as of early Monday morning. Law enforcement officials in Kerr County confirmed that at least ten girls from Camp Mystic remain missing. Amid speculation that the so-called "1-in-1,000-year storm" may have been triggered by cloud seeding, one of the weather modification operators in the region has denied any flight operations during the relevant timeframe. On Sunday, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) warned that another round of storms could bring additional danger to the region over the next one to two days. The flooding across Central Texas is shaping up to be one of the deadliest freshwater flood events in the U.S. over the past half-century, with the death toll likely to surpass the 84 lives lost in the 1977 Johnstown, Pennsylvania flood. "There's the potential for flash flooding, but there's no expectation of a water wall of almost 30 feet high," Gov. Abbott told reporters. Local, state, and federal officials have outlined plans to expand search and rescue operations throughout Kerr County. Meanwhile, National Weather Service officials pushed back against claims by corporate media about staffing shortages. The White House's response to those claims was described as "disgusting." Intense scrutiny has fallen on Rainmaker Technology, a California–based weather modification startup, amid speculation that cloud seeding may have contributed to the historic flooding. CEO Augustus Doricko responded to baseless claims on X by saying, "Rainmaker did not operate in the affected area on the 3rd or 4th or contribute to the floods that occurred over the region." The natural disaster in the Texan Hill Country is a tragedy. My prayers are with Texas. Rainmaker did not operate in the affected area on the 3rd or 4th or contribute to the floods that occurred over the region. Rainmaker will always be fully transparent. https://t.co/J5QlUbruCd July 5, 2025 Doricko continued: Overnight from July 3rd - 4th, moisture surged into the Hill Country from the Pacific as remnants of Tropical Storm Barry moved across the region. At 1:00 a.m. on July 4th, the National Weather Service (NWS), which we work closely with to maintain awareness of severe weather systems, issued a flash flood warning for San Angelo, Texas. Note, summer convective cloud seeding operations in Texas do not occur during overnight hours. At 4:00 a.m. on July 4th, the NWS issued a life-threatening emergency warning, and flooding ensued. Did Rainmaker conduct any operations that could have impacted the floods? No. The last seeding mission prior to the July 4th event was during the early afternoon of July 2nd, when a brief cloud seeding mission was flown over the eastern portions of south-central Texas, and two clouds were seeded. These clouds persisted for about two hours after seeding before dissipating between 3:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. CDT. Natural clouds typically have lifespans of 30 minutes to a few hours at most, with even the most persistent storm systems rarely maintaining the same cloud structure for more than 12-18 hours. The clouds that were seeded on July 2nd dissipated over 24 hours prior to the developing storm complex that would produce the flooding rainfall. A senior meteorologist observed an unusually high moisture content prior to the event's arrival, using NWS sounding data. It was at this point that our meteorologists determined that we would suspend future operations indefinitely. As you can see, we suspended operations on July 2nd, a day before the NWS issued any flood warning. Here are the flight logs for July from our South Texas Program And more: I encourage the meteorology community to ask questions and scrutinize our claims, and we will continue to be fully transparent in answering. Attached is a meteorological report on the events. pic.twitter.com/zyuamIygg8 July 5, 2025 Related: Texas Floods Kill 50; Search Ongoing For Dozens Of Missing Campers Other weather news: Tropical Storm Chantal Makes Landfall - All Eyes On Possible NYC Path . . . Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 06:55
Google Bets Big On Nuclear Fusion Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com, Google signed the first direct corporate power purchase agreement for nuclear fusion energy with Commonwealth Fusion Systems. The global race to achieve commercial nuclear fusion is intensifying, with significant investments from the U.S., China, and the European Union. Nuclear fusion promises to deliver abundant, clean energy, potentially revolutionizing the global energy landscape and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. For decades, researchers have been assessing the potential to develop nuclear fusion reactors, capable of producing abundant clean energy. However, despite several breakthroughs in recent years, most scientists agree that we are far from achieving the commercial rollout of this technology. Nevertheless, the barrier has not stopped widespread investment in the technology, the most recent of which came from U.S. tech giant Google. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) definition, Nuclear fusion is the process by which two light atomic nuclei combine to form a single heavier one while releasing massive amounts of energy. Fusion reactions take place in a state of matter called plasma – a hot, charged gas made of positive ions and free-moving electrons with unique properties distinct from solids, liquids, or gases…nuclei need to collide with each other at extremely high temperatures – around ten million degrees Celsius. When the nuclei come within a very close range of each other, the attractive nuclear force between them will outweigh the electrical repulsion and allow them to fuse. For this to happen, the nuclei must be confined within a small space to increase the chances of collision. Nuclear fusion differs from nuclear fission, the current nuclear power production process used worldwide, which occurs when a neutron slams into a larger atom, forcing it to excite and split into two smaller atoms, also known as fission products. Additional neutrons are also released that can initiate a chain reaction. When each atom splits, a massive amount of energy is released. Uranium and plutonium are the most commonly used fuels for fission reactions. After decades of investment and research into nuclear fusion around the globe, several breakthroughs have put us one step closer to achieving a nuclear fusion reaction that could lead to the commercial rollout of fusion reactors. As of 2025, commercial fusion companies have raised over $9 billion in investment, and many governments now view fusion as the modern-day 'space race'. Currently, there are around 50 private companies worldwide pursuing commercial fusion, and many are hopeful that the previous timeline of around 30 years for a commercial rollout may have been overexaggerated. In May, a long-delayed nuclear fusion project, supported by over 30 countries, finally announced it was prepared to assemble the world's most powerful magnet. The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, based in southern France and supported by the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and the European Union, aims to create an “invisible cage” to contain super-hot plasma particles that combine and fuse to release energy. Following years of delays, the start-up phase of the project is now scheduled to begin in 2033, when it is expected to start generating plasma. In addition to the joint project, some countries are battling to be the first to achieve commercial nuclear fusion. In February, satellite images emerged revealing a giant facility in China. The images showed a massive nuclear fusion research facility, which many have taken to mean that China is racing ahead in nuclear fusion development. The Chinese government is spending between an estimated $1 billion to $1.5 billion annually in fusion research and development, according to the lead of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, Jean Paul Allain. Meanwhile, former President Biden was spending around $800 million a year, although the U.S. is also making significant progress in nuclear fusion. In the U.S., Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) engineers are developing a fusion project consisting of a doughnut-shaped machine known as a tokamak and called SPARC, which they hope will achieve a nuclear fusion reaction. CFS is a company that spun off from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2018. The firm has raised over $2 billion in funding to develop the machine, although it is not certain how long it will take and whether it will be able to achieve a net surplus of energy once it is up and running. However, the company’s target is to construct the world’s first fusion-fuelled power plant in Virginia by the early 2030s. This week, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, came to an agreement with CFS to purchase power from its nuclear fusion project. Google signed the technology's first direct corporate power purchase agreement, according to the tech company. CFS CEO and co-founder Bob Mumgaard stated, “Without partnership and without being bold and setting a goal and going for it, you won't ever reach over those challenges.” The financing forms part of a new funding round for CFS, after Google invested $1.8 billion into the firm during its previous 2021 round. Several countries around the world are racing to develop nuclear fusion technology that can be rolled out at the commercial level to support clean energy development and a shift away from fossil fuels. Achieving this level of fusion reaction would allow governments to provide far more abundant clean power than they are currently able to supply through fission and renewable energy projects. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 06:30
Tanker Explosion Reported At Russia's Ust-Luga Seaport An ammonia leak during loading operations on the LPG tanker "Eco Wizard" reportedly triggered an explosion, resulting in the tanker sinking at one of Russia's most strategically important ports, located in the Leningrad Region of northwest Russia on the Gulf of Finland. German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle reported that Eco Wizard experienced an explosion during onboard loading operations at Ust-Luga seaport. All crew members were safely evacuated... On a tanker in the Leningrad Region of Russia, an ammonia leak occurred. This is already the sixth tanker this year that has been affected in some way by an explosion after entering Russian ports. The incident took place at the Russian port of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea during the loading of the tanker Eco Wizard, according to the Russian Ministry of Transport. Telegram channel "MNS | Moscow • News • Events," citing its sources, reports that an explosion occurred on board the tanker during ammonia pumping operations at the terminal of JSC "MHK Eurochem." As a result, holes appeared in the hull of the ammonia carrier, through which water began to flood. Eco Wizard sails under the flag of the Marshall Islands and arrived in Ust-Luga from Belgium. Current location of Eco Wizard. The owner of the vessel is StealthGas Inc. Additional details about the owner: Ust-Luga is one of the most strategically important ports in Russia—economically, logistically, and geopolitically, mainly because it handles over 100 million tons of cargo annually, including coal, oil products, fertilizers, and LNG. The incident marks the sixth tanker explosion at a Russian port this year, raising suspicions of possible sabotage by Ukrainian special forces or Western intelligence operations—mysterious explosions for sure. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 05:45
Germany's Pension Ponzi Scheme Is Collapsing: What Comes Next Submitted by Thomas Kolbe If you’ve ever wanted to witness the slow-motion collapse of a Ponzi scheme, you might want to keep an eye on Germany’s public pension system. Rhetorically and politically sugar-coated as a “pay-as-you-go” system — where today’s workers finance the retirement of yesterday’s — this bureaucratic redistribution leviathan is utterly dependent on an ever-growing pool of contributors. Problem is: Germany is aging, shrinking, and losing its industrial base. Just in time for this demographic crunch — declining birth rates, increasing life expectancy, and longer pension payout durations — policymakers have decided to torch what’s left of the country’s industrial foundation in a green frenzy. Year after year, around €70 billion in value creation is being sent up the chimney, while more than half a million jobs have disappeared in recent years. That’s half a million fewer contributors to the pension Ponzi. Tax Payer´s Money To Maintain The Illusion To keep the locomotive rolling — even as it barrels in the wrong direction — the federal government now plugs the pension system’s gaping cash hole with roughly €123 billion annually from the general budget. In other words: workers pay a second time, in the form of taxes, to support the same unsustainable system they already fund through record-high payroll deductions. With a government spending ratio now exceeding 50% of GDP, Germany has erected a full-scale hyperstate. Attached to its bloated bureaucracy are ever-growing administrative tentacles: layers of social insurance agencies and subsidized institutions now serving as the domestic enforcement arm of Brussels’ self-destructive Green Deal. The coming deep economic depression, which has been foreshadowed by three years of quasi-permanent recession, will test just how resilient — and solvent — the savings and wealth accumulation of past generations truly are. It may be their prudence that softens the blow of the present generation’s green delirium. Trapped in the Logic of a Ponzi Scheme and Keynesian Voodoo Economics Entirely captive to the logic of Ponzi finance and Keynesian voodoo economics, Germany’s new federal government now plans its grand escape from all woes. With a debt hammer of one trillion euros over the coming years, it aims to wipe away every problem while putting the economy back on track. Broadly speaking, the money is supposed to raise the defense budget to 5% of GDP, as demanded by the latest NATO summit, pour into the country’s crumbling infrastructure, and plug countless holes in the overstrained welfare apparatus. We don’t need to go into detail here to recall that such stimulus-fueled bonfires leave behind nothing but more debt and inflation, misallocating printed capital into sectors with little or no real demand. It would suffice if politicians had even a passing familiarity with recent economic history — they’d realize they are once again slamming their heads against the very same wall as in decades past. Socialists Debate Higher Contribution Meanwhile, the SPD — junior coalition partner to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU-led government — is currently debating raising the pension contribution ceiling by €500 to €8,050 monthly salary. This increase would translate to an additional yearly burden of over €1,116 for anyone earning that amount. In other words, those who already carry the lion’s share of the country’s fiscal load as the last remaining productive pillars of society would be hit with yet another surcharge. The welfare state and social peace, they argue, are worth this sacrifice. The coalition partner CDU’s reaction was not long in coming. There was unanimous rejection of the SPD proposal to once again burden the country’s top earners. Wolfgang Steiger, Secretary General of the CDU’s Economic Council, stated: “We strictly oppose the move to raise the contribution ceiling in statutory health insurance. It would further increase the cost of labor.” That sounds good at first and has its merits. After all, it’s about time fiscal policy wielded the Milei chainsaw instead of continuing with the socialist cornucopia. Yet recent history has shown us that the CDU flips positions faster than expected. It is, not least, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s fault that trust in his party has hit rock bottom. After multiple broken campaign promises — like cutting the electricity tax or securing the country’s external borders once and for all — no one believes his party anymore. After all, the community, acting as a global social welfare office, also needs to provide compensatory payments across other social insurance branches — which, thanks to successful recruitment efforts related to illegal migration, are facing significant special financing needs. Germany is the Victim of Its Own Success Two successful postwar generations built the capital and economic foundation on which the neo-socialist aberration could flourish — manifesting itself in an overgrown welfare system. At the root of the problem lies not only the crushing tax and contribution burden in Germany but also its stagnating productivity, which together make rapid private capital formation nearly impossible for large parts of the population. Even though politicians occasionally flirt with the idea of introducing elements of a capital-funded pension system, such proposals are a suicide mission in light of the sheer weight of the public pay-as-you-go system. Germans hold almost exclusively cash-based savings, which makes them highly vulnerable whenever the state — in concert with the ECB — fires up the inflation engine. On top of that, they remain deeply risk-averse investors, culturally and historically allergic to equity markets or private pension schemes. Powerful Voting Block The pension insurance provides the perfect case study. With over 21 million pension recipients, every reform attempt at the expense of this group faces a homogeneous voting block. Germany could raise the retirement age, which it is attempting to do to 67 years. It could reduce benefits, which it does not. Pensions are tied to inflation and productivity growth in the economy. Politicians could reject the green-socialist agenda and return to the economic rationality of the free market to expand the contributor base and attract investment. They do not. The bureaucracy — the political front organization — is simply too powerful. Regulation is its product, and additional welfare recipients are its customers. The path of least resistance will be taken: further increasing contribution rates for the productive pillars. Federal subsidies from the tax pool will supplement this to ease the pressure. But due to demographic development and the destructive economic policies in the EU, especially in Germany, the Ponzi scheme is steering toward an abyss. * * * About the author: for over 25 years, Thomas Kolbe has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 05:00
Ayatollah Khamenei Makes First Public Appearance Since War With Israel, US Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since last month's 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel, at the end of which the US sent B-2 bombers in an effort to destroy three key nuclear facilities. Khamenei attended a religious ceremony in Tehran, which was featured in a video broadcast by state media. The 85-year-old leader attended the Imam Khomeini Mosque during an Ashura event, considered the most sacred day in the Shia Muslim calendar. Handout: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/Reuters The Supreme Leader is seen acknowledging a large crowd with waves and nods as attendees stand and chant slogans of devotion upon his arrival. Khamenei had remained completely out of public sight since the surprise attack by Israel on June 13, with only prerecorded messages being released at various times. There was widespread speculation that Israel was seeking to take out the Ayatollah if its warplanes or assassins had a chance. Many top-ranking military leaders as well as nuclear scientists were killed over the 12-day period, which saw Iran launch significant retaliatory attacks on Tel Aviv and other locations in Israel. One key pre-recorded speech upon the end of fighting, issued by Khamenei on June 26, involved the top Shia religious cleric dismissing President Trump's demand for Iran’s submission. He declared that Iran had dealt "a slap to America’s face" by launching an attack on a US military base in Qatar; however, the Pentagon said all inbound projectiles were intercepted. Trump responded by directing a message at Khamenei which said "You’re a man of great faith, respected in your country. But you need to be honest — you got beat to hell." Given the obvious deep inroads Mossad intelligence has made into the Islamic Republic, Khamenei likely spent the conflict in a secret underground bunker known only to his closest aides. Iran suffered severe damage, but Tel Aviv also showed signs of devastation from Iranian ballistic and hypersonic missile strikes: تصوير خاص من تل آبيب pic.twitter.com/B44D7qw0Nn June 25, 2025 At one point the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was attacked and reportedly blown up by Israeli warplanes. But Iran's ballistic missiles also did severe damage on some Israeli military command centers, including apparent attacks on some Mossad locations in Israel. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/07/2025 - 04:15
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