STEPHANIE SAUL, STEVEN RICH2025年7月8日哈佛大学培养与中国的关系，在一定程度上有助于增强其财政实力。 Sophie Park for The New York Times The Great Recession left Harvard University in a financial crisis. Its endowment had plummeted by nearly 30 percent, or more than $10 billion, in 2009. 经济大衰退使哈佛大学陷入财政危机。2009年，该校收到的捐赠锐减逾100亿美元，降幅近30%。 To help recover, Harvard’s leaders found part of the answer in China. Already, American business was pouring in, as Washington and Beijing encouraged — if at times warily — a policy of engagement as the best way to build bridges between the two countries. 为了摆脱困境，哈佛领导层在中国找到了部分答案。随着华盛顿和北京鼓励——尽管有时很谨慎——将接触政策作为两国之间架起桥梁的最佳方式，美国企业纷纷涌入中国。 China promised enormous academic and economic opportunities, and Harvard had something wealthy and well-connected Chinese craved: prestige and access to influential networks for themselves and their children. 中国有着巨大的学术和经济前景，而哈佛掌握着有钱有势的中国人所渴望的东西：声望，以及他们自己和子女进入有影响力的交际圈的机会。 Between 2010 and 2025, Harvard attracted $560 million in gifts and contracts from China and Hong Kong, the most of any American university, partly from private donors and foundations, as well as a small amount through contracts with government entities like universities. 在2010年至2025年期间，哈佛大学从中国大陆和香港吸引了5.6亿美元的捐赠和合同，是所有美国大学中最多的，部分来自私人捐赠者和基金会，还有一小部分来自大学等政府实体的合同。 “The confluence of new, enormous property wealth and especially favorable relationships” — with China’s leadership and scholars — “have happily converged,” wrote Harvard Magazine, a university-affiliated publication, almost breathless in describing the optimism in Sino-American relations at the time. “新的、巨大的财富和特别有利的关系”——与中国领导人和学者的关系——“令人欣喜地汇聚在一起”，哈佛大学的附属刊物《哈佛杂志》在描述当时中美关系的乐观情绪时，显得无比兴奋。 Now Harvard’s ties with China are coming back to haunt the university. Those connections were forged when Harvard was more financially vulnerable and when much of the foreign policy establishment believed that higher education could play a part in pushing America’s democratic ideals to China and the rest of the world. 现在，与中国的关系成了这所大学的烦心事。这些联系是在哈佛经济状况较差的时候建立起来的，当时很多外交政策机构认为，高等教育可以在向中国和世界其他地方推广美国的民主理想方面发挥作用。 But American foreign policy has turned sharply hawkish against China, and even though Harvard has steadily reduced its ties there, the Trump administration has made the relationship another line of attack in its broader effort to bring the university to heel. The administration has stripped away billions of dollars in federal research funding and is trying to revoke its right to host international students and also end its nonprofit tax status. 但是，美国的外交政策对中国的态度已经急剧转向鹰派，尽管哈佛一直在稳步减少与中国的关系，但特朗普政府在更广泛的迫使哈佛就势的努力中，还是把它与中国的关系作为又一个攻击的角度。政府已经剥夺了该校数十亿美元的联邦研究经费，试图取消它收录国际学生的权利，并结束它的非营利税收地位。 President Trump has portrayed Harvard’s ties to China as a national security risk. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for an investigation into the university’s ties with a Chinese company whose leader had been subject to American sanctions over its treatment of workers, which could lead to criminal charges. 特朗普总统将哈佛大学与中国的关系描述为国家安全风险。美国国务卿鲁比奥呼吁对该大学与一家中国公司的关系进行调查，该公司的领导人因对待工人的方式受到了美国政府的制裁，可能导致刑事指控。 Alan M. Garber, the university’s president, has described the administration’s overall assault on the school as a power grab “unmoored from the law, to control teaching and learning at Harvard and to dictate how it operates.” 哈佛大学校长艾伦·加伯称，政府对学校的全面攻击是一种“脱离法律的夺权行为，目的是控制哈佛的教学和学习，并支配它的运作方式”。 Ruling in a lawsuit that Harvard filed over the administration’s efforts to block its enrollment of international students, a federal judge in Boston, Allison D. Burroughs, called the Trump administration’s actions “misplaced efforts to control a reputable academic institution and squelch diverse viewpoints, seemingly because they are in some instances, opposed to this administration’s own views.” 波士顿联邦法官艾莉森·巴勒斯在哈佛就政府阻止其招收国际学生的行为提起的诉讼中称，特朗普政府的行为是“控制一所知名学术机构、压制不同观点的错误行动，似乎是因为这些观点在某些情况下与本届政府相左”。 Harvard is not the only American university with a presence in China. New York University operates a degree-granting campus in Shanghai. Duke has a campus in Kunshan. And Kean University, in New Jersey, has a campus in Wenzhou. 哈佛大学并不是唯一在中国开展业务的美国大学。纽约大学在上海设有一个授予学位的校区。杜克大学在昆山有一个校区。新泽西州的肯恩大学在温州也有一个校区。 International students comprise a quarter of Harvard’s enrollment — with 6 percent of students coming from China — but, overall, the relationship has waned. Harvard officials point out that the Chinese donations are a relatively small percentage of the more than $9.6 billion the school raised from 173 countries in a global capital fund-raising campaign after the recession. 国际学生占哈佛学生总数的四分之一，全校6%的学生来自中国，但总的来说，这种关系已经减弱。哈佛官员指出，在经济衰退后，哈佛从173个国家筹集了96亿美元的资金，而中国的捐款在其中的占比相对较小。 Since 2020, Chinese money flowing into Harvard has fallen by more than half, to $30 million in 2024 from a high of $78 million in 2020. Harvard has moved a summer language program out of Beijing to Taipei in Taiwan. Its hub for Harvard events in Shanghai, which opened in 2010 with great fanfare, has shrunk to a quarter of its previous footprint. 自2020年以来，流入哈佛的中国资金减少了一半以上，从2020年7800万美元的高点降至2024年的3000万美元。哈佛大学将一个夏季语言课程从北京搬到了台湾台北。在上海的哈佛活动中心曾于2010年大张旗鼓地开业，现在已经缩小到以前的四分之一。 Michael J. Green, director of Asian affairs at the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, said many research universities developed China connections before paring them down as the political climate changed. 在乔治·W·布什政府任国家安全委员会亚洲事务主任的迈克尔·格林说，许多研究型大学发展了与中国的联系，但随着政治气候的变化，它们又减少了这种联系。 “But probably not to the satisfaction of the Trump administration,” he said, “which is motivated by more than just national security concerns in its war with Harvard.” “但可能不会让特朗普政府满意，”他说。“在与哈佛的战争中，特朗普政府的动机不仅仅是国家安全问题。” A Mutually Beneficial Relationship 互利关系 Harvard enrolled its first Chinese students in 1880. By 1908, Chinese students had formed their own club. For many families in China today, Harvard, or Hafo, as it is called there, has become a symbol of success, so much so that it has inspired copycats. 哈佛大学于1880年招收了第一批中国学生。到1908年，中国学生成立了自己的俱乐部。对于今天中国的许多家庭来说，哈佛已成为成功的象征，以至于激发了各种抄袭仿造行为。 William C. Kirby, a Harvard professor and former director of the university’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, found 375 attempts in China to register the name as a trademark — an S.U.V., a child-care center, a fast-food restaurant and even a company that offers to take college exams for students. 哈佛大学教授、费正清中国研究中心前主任柯伟林(William C. Kirby)发现，在中国有375家公司试图将这个名字注册为商标——一款越野车、一家托儿中心、一家快餐店，甚至还有一家为学生提供大学考试服务的公司。 “When we went to register our center in Shanghai in 2008, I was told by the general counsel that we couldn’t use the name Harvard — a Harvard University already existed there,” said Dr. Kirby, author of “Empires of Ideas,” a 2022 book on universities. “2008年，当我们去上海注册我们的中心时，总法律顾问告诉我，我们不能使用哈佛的名字——那里已经有哈佛大学了，”柯伟林说，他曾在2022年出版一本关于大学的书《顶尖大学的条件》(Empires of Ideas)。 In 2015, Drew Faust, then the Harvard president, met in Beijing with President Xi Jinping of China, whose daughter had recently received her Harvard degree. After it began its fund-raising push there, Harvard brought in donations from executives of major real estate companies. 2015年，时任哈佛大学校长德鲁·福斯特在北京与中国国家主席习近平举行会面，当时习近平的女儿刚刚获得哈佛大学学位。哈佛在当地开始筹款后，吸引了大型房地产公司高管的捐款。 2015年，时任哈佛大学校长的德鲁·福斯特在北京与中国国家主席习近平会面。 Some had close connections to the Chinese Communist Party, often a prerequisite for success for Chinese businesses. They included Wang Jianlin, the head of Dalian Wanda Group, who had been a longtime Communist Party member; Hui Ka Yan, the founder of China Evergrande, who rubbed shoulders with officials in the highest levels of government; and Xiao Jianhua, the founder of China’s Tomorrow Group, who served as a de facto banker to China’s Communist Party elite. 一些人与中国共产党关系密切，这通常是中国企业成功的先决条件。其中包括多年前就已加入中国共产党的大连万达集团董事长王健林；还有与政府最高层的官员有往来的恒大创始人许家印；以及中国明天集团的创始人肖建华，他实际上是中共权贵的银行家。 An American foundation controlled by Ronnie and Gerald Chan, American citizens who made billions in Hong Kong real estate, also donated. It gave $350 million, at the time Harvard’s largest gift ever. 在香港房地产行业赚了数十亿美元的美国公民陈启宗和陈乐宗控制的一家美国基金会也进行了捐赠。捐赠额为3.5亿美元，是当时哈佛有史以来最大的一笔捐款。 Orville Schell, a Harvard alumnus who directs the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations, said that China was then regarded as a new landscape of potential big donors. 哈佛大学校友、亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟(Orville Schell)说，当时中国被视为有望产生大捐赠者的地方。 “Everybody made a China play,” Mr. Schell said. “大家都在中国有动作，”夏伟说。 In 2002, Harvard’s Kennedy School began the program known as China’s Leaders in Development, which continued until 2016, training Chinese government officials, some who went on to high-ranking roles in the Chinese Communist Party. The school emphasized what Harvard called “values of freedom, democracy and human rights” in hopes of exposing a new generation of leaders to democratic values. 2002年，哈佛大学肯尼迪学院启动了名为“中国发展领袖”的项目，这个持续到2016年的项目培训了中国政府官员，其中一些人后来在中国共产党担任了高级职务。该学院强调哈佛所说的“自由、民主和人权的价值观”，希望让新一代领导人接触到民主价值观。 “No one thought that was craven,” Mr. Schell said. “The idea was that, if we interact more, things will change more, and maybe China will slowly vacate its old Leninist past.” “没人认为这是软弱行为，”夏伟说。“我们的想法是，如果我们互动更多，事情就会发生更大的变化，也许中国会慢慢摆脱列宁主义的过去。” In retrospect, he said, it is clear that strategy failed. 他说，现在回想起来，很明显，这一战略失败了。 In a statement, the Kennedy School said it ended ties with China years ago, including the program for training Chinese civil servants. 肯尼迪学院在一份声明中说，该院多年前就结束了与中国的关系，包括培训中国公务员的项目。 “As the Chinese government became more internally repressive and externally assertive,” a spokesman for the Kennedy School said, “the school has discontinued those relationships.” 肯尼迪学院的一位发言人说：“随着中国政府对内变得更加压抑，对外变得更加自信，学校已经终止了这些关系。” Perry Link, a Harvard alumnus and China scholar, said that American universities had sought to exchange academic ideas but also to raise money and attract wealthy and well-connected students. 哈佛毕业的中国问题学者林培瑞(Perry Link)说，美国大学不仅寻求学术思想的交流，同时也寻求资金，吸引有钱有势的学生。 And China welcomed the arrangements, he added. 他还说，这种安排是中国所乐见的。 “The Communist Party’s interest has been to catch up with the West in science in order to be as strong and wealthy as the West,” said Dr. Link, who was barred by China after assisting a Chinese dissident’s escape from the country. “中国共产党的兴趣一直是在科学领域赶上西方，以便和西方一样强大和富有，”林培瑞说，他曾因协助一名中国异见者逃离中国而被中国禁止入境。 A Deepening Distrust 日益加深的不信任 As the U.S.-China relationship deteriorated, some politicians, mostly Republicans, expressed concern about Chinese influence in academia — and pointed out vulnerabilities with Harvard’s ties. In 2020, President Trump began an investigation into whether Harvard had properly disclosed its Chinese donors. 随着美中关系的恶化，一些政界人士，主要是共和党人，对中国在学术界的影响力表示担忧——并指出了哈佛与中国关系构成的薄弱环节。2020年，特朗普总统开始调查哈佛大学是否正确披露了其中国捐赠者的信息。 Harvard’s full list of Chinese donors and contracts is not public, but the university has said that its contracts primarily involve executive education programs and the sale and licensing of academic publications and materials produced by Harvard’s two presses. 哈佛大学没有公布中国捐赠者和合同的完整清单，但该大学表示，其合同主要涉及高管教育项目，以及哈佛两家出版社出版的学术出版物和材料的销售和许可。 As a result of the 2020 investigation, Harvard made additional disclosures and the Biden administration closed the investigation. The Trump administration opened a new investigation this year. 由于2020年的调查，哈佛大学披露了更多信息，拜登政府结束了调查。特朗普政府今年启动了一项新的调查。 Then in May, House Republicans sent a letter to the university demanding documents related to a large Chinese state-owned agricultural enterprise called Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, or XPCC, which is subject to American sanctions for its treatment of Uyghur workers. 然后，在5月，众议院共和党人致函哈佛大学，要求提供与中国大型国有农业企业新疆生产建设兵团有关的文件，该企业因对待维吾尔工人的方式而受到美国的制裁。 位于波士顿的哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院在中国举行的会议受到了共和党人的批评。 The Department of Homeland Security followed with a letter claiming Harvard “hosted and trained” representatives of the company at conferences in China sponsored by Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health — named for the Chan family. Mr. Rubio followed with the call for a sanctions investigation. 国土安全部随后致信称，哈佛大学“接待并培训”了新疆生产建设兵团的代表，参加由哈佛大学陈曾熙公共卫生学院在中国主办的会议。鲁比奥随后呼吁进行制裁调查。 A Harvard spokesman declined to comment. 哈佛大学的发言人拒绝置评。 Several administrations in Washington have raised concerns about academic collaborations and accused China of trying to steal scientific secrets. In the past year, both Georgia Tech and the University of California, Berkeley, announced that they are severing ties. 华盛顿的几届政府对学术合作表示担忧，并指责中国试图窃取科学机密。在过去的一年里，佐治亚理工学院和加州大学伯克利分校都宣布他们正在与中国切断联系。 In 2023, a Harvard scientist was convicted of lying about a deal with China to establish a research laboratory there. (No evidence emerged suggesting that Harvard was aware of the arrangement.) The researcher, Charles M. Lieber, the former chairman of the university’s chemistry department, served a brief prison sentence. He is now on the faculty of Tsinghua University. 2023年，一名哈佛科学家被判在与中国建立研究实验室的交易问题上撒谎。（没有证据表明哈佛知道这一安排。）这位研究人员名叫查尔斯·利伯，是哈佛大学化学系的前主任，他被判了短期监禁，现在清华大学任教。 At times, critics have accused Harvard of currying favor with actors in an increasingly authoritarian state. A survey published in 2020 by the Ash Center at the Kennedy School drew criticism from Mike Pompeo, secretary of state in the first Trump administration, after the Chinese government touted it as evidence that 90 percent of citizens were satisfied with their central government. 有时，批评人士指责哈佛大学讨好这个日益威权的国家里的行为者。肯尼迪学院阿什中心在2020年发布的一项调查遭到了特朗普第一届政府的国务卿迈克·庞皮欧的批评，因为中国政府将该报告作为90%的公民对中央政府满意的证据来宣传。 A spokesman for Harvard’s Kennedy School said that, contrary to the Chinese government’s messaging, the study found that Chinese residents held nuanced views about their government. 哈佛大学肯尼迪学院的一位发言人说，与中国政府传达的信息相反，这项研究发现，中国居民对他们的政府持有微妙的看法。 An author of the study, Tony Saich, a Harvard professor of international affairs, is on the board of AMC Entertainment. The company had been controlled by Wanda Group, a Chinese conglomerate that sold its controlling interest. Dr. Saich’s compensation from AMC last year was more than $300,000, according to the company’s report. 这项研究的作者之一，哈佛大学国际事务教授托尼·赛奇，是AMC娱乐公司的董事会成员。该公司曾由万达集团控制，但这家中国企业集团已经出售了其控股权。AMC的报告显示，赛奇去年从AMC获得的薪酬超过30万美元。 Dr. Saich said he became familiar with Wanda Group as a result of his appointment to the AMC board in 2012, adding that he learned about the donation after the fact. 赛奇表示，由于2012年被任命为AMC董事会成员，他开始熟悉万达集团，并补充说，他是在事后得知这笔捐赠的。 中国房地产开发商王健林成为了哈佛大学的主要捐赠人。 Wanda is controlled by Mr. Wang, who was once viewed as the richest man in China and whose American acquisitions once raised concern on Capitol Hill. In 2015, Dr. Faust met with Mr. Wang in Beijing, according to an announcement on the company’s website. The university subsequently announced a gift of $3.75 million from Mr. Wang to create a global institute focused on climate change. 万达由曾被视为中国首富的王健林控制，他在美国的收购一度引起国会的担忧。根据该公司网站上的公告，2015年，福斯特在北京与王健林见了面。哈佛大学随后宣布，王健林捐赠了375万美元，用于创建一个专注于气候变化的全球研究所。 Over time, Mr. Wang donated more money. In 2015, The New York Times disclosed his company’s ties to relatives of Xi Jinping, whom he would later defend in a presentation at Harvard. 随着时间的推移，王健林捐了更多的钱。2015年，《纽约时报》披露了他的公司与习近平亲属的关系，他后来在哈佛大学的一次演讲中为习近平辩护。 His business and influence, like those of several Chinese donors, has declined, however. 然而，他的生意和影响力，像其他几位中国捐赠者一样，已经下降。 Evergrande, whose founder, Hui Ka Yan, was a donor, filed for bankruptcy. The company reneged on its most recent pledge to Harvard, paying only a portion of a $115 million Covid research project. 另一名哈佛捐赠者许家印创办的恒大已经申请破产。该公司违背了最近对哈佛大学的承诺，只支付了1.15亿美元新冠病毒研究项目的一部分。 Mr. Xiao, the founder of China’s Tomorrow Group, fell out of favor with China’s leadership and is serving a 13-year jail term for financial fraud. 明天集团创始人肖建华失去了中国领导层的青睐，因金融欺诈被判处13年监禁，目前正在服刑。 In the fallout from President Trump’s attacks on Harvard, the Chan School of Public Health, which receives close to 46 percent of its budget in federal grants and contracts, and the Kennedy School have announced budget cuts. 在特朗普总统攻击哈佛的影响下，陈曾熙公共卫生学院和肯尼迪学院宣布削减预算。该公共卫生学院近46%的预算来自联邦拨款和合同。 Citing “unprecedented new headwinds,” the Kennedy School’s dean said last week that it would be forced to lay off employees. 肯尼迪学院院长上周表示，由于“前所未有的新阻力”，学院将被迫裁员。 傅才德(Michael Forsythe)对本文有报道贡献。 Stephanie Saul报道大学院校，最近重点关注大学录取的巨大变化以及有关高等教育多样性、公平性和包容性的争论。 Steven Rich是时报数据记者，利用数据分析来调查重大问题并阐述时事背景。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MEAGHAN TOBIN2025年7月8日杭州西湖。在政府补贴和税收优惠政策的帮助下，这座城市已成为人工智能初创企业的聚集地。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times It was a sunny Saturday afternoon, and dozens of people sat in the grass around a backyard stage where aspiring founders of tech start-ups talked about their ideas. People in the crowd slouched over laptops, vaping and drinking strawberry Frappuccinos. A drone buzzed overhead. Inside the house, investors took pitches in the kitchen. 那是一个阳光明媚的周六下午，数十人坐在一个后院舞台周围的草地上，怀揣科技创业梦想的创始人正在台上分享他们的想法。台下的人们懒散地伏在笔记本电脑前，一边抽着电子烟，一边喝着草莓星冰乐。一架无人机在头顶嗡嗡作响。而在室内，投资者在厨房里听取项目提案。 It looked like Silicon Valley, but it was Liangzhu, a quiet suburb of the southern Chinese city of Hangzhou, which is a hot spot for entrepreneurs and tech talent lured by low rents and proximity to tech companies like Alibaba and DeepSeek. 这一幕看起来像发生在硅谷，但它其实是良渚——中国南方城市杭州一个安静的郊区。这里因低廉的租金以及靠近阿里巴巴、DeepSeek等科技公司，成为了吸引创业者和科技人才的热门地点。 “People come here to explore their own possibilities,” said Felix Tao, 36, a former Facebook and Alibaba employee who hosted the event. “人们来这里探索自己的可能性，”这次活动的主办者、36岁的陶芳波说道，他曾在Facebook和阿里巴巴任职。 Virtually all of those possibilities involve artificial intelligence. As China faces off with the United States over tech primacy, Hangzhou has become the center of China’s A.I. frenzy. 几乎所有这些可能性都与人工智能有关。随着中美在科技主导权上展开较量，杭州已成为中国人工智能热潮的中心。 A decade ago, the provincial and local governments started offering subsidies and tax breaks to new companies in Hangzhou, a policy that has helped incubate hundreds of start-ups. On weekends, people fly in from Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen to hire programmers. 十年前，浙江省和杭州市政府开始为新公司提供补贴和税收减免，这一政策帮助孵化了数以百计家初创企业。每逢周末，就会有人从北京、上海和深圳飞来这里招聘程序员。 Lately, many of them have ended up in Mr. Tao’s backyard. He helped found an A.I. research lab at Alibaba before leaving to start his own company, Mindverse, in 2022. Now Mr. Tao’s home is a hub for coders who have settled in Liangzhu, many in their 20s and 30s. They call themselves “villagers,” writing code in coffee shops during the day and gaming together at night, hoping to harness A.I. to create their own companies. 最近，他们中的许多人都来到了陶芳波的后院。在阿里巴巴工作的时候，他参与创建了一个人工智能研究实验室，之后于2022年离职创办了自己的公司心识宇宙。现在，陶芳波的家成为了那些定居在良渚的程序员们的聚集地，他们大多是二三十岁的年轻人。他们自称“村民”，白天在咖啡馆写代码，晚上一起打游戏，希望利用人工智能创建自己的公司。 Hangzhou has already birthed tech powerhouses, not only Alibaba and DeepSeek but also NetEase and Hikvision. 不少科技巨头诞生在杭州，不仅有阿里巴巴和DeepSeek，还有网易和海康威视。 In January, DeepSeek shook the tech world when it released an A.I. system that it said it had made for a small fraction of the cost that Silicon Valley companies had spent on their own. Since then, systems made by DeepSeek and Alibaba have ranked among the top-performing open source A.I. models in the world, meaning they are available for anyone to build on. Graduates from Hangzhou’s Zhejiang University, where DeepSeek’s founder studied, have become sought-after employees at Chinese tech companies. 今年1月，DeepSeek发布了一款人工智能系统，声称成本只有硅谷企业开发同类系统的一小部分，结果震惊了科技界。自那时起，DeepSeek和阿里巴巴开发的系统已跻身全球表现最佳的开源人工智能模型之列，这意味着任何人都可以基于它们进行开发。DeepSeek创始人毕业于杭州的浙江大学，现在中国的科技企业争相招揽这所大学的毕业生。 “人们来这里探索自己的可能性，”陶芳波说。在创办心识宇宙之前，他曾在Facebook和阿里巴巴任职。浙江大学本部——玉泉校区的毛泽东塑像。一位创业者表示，政府曾帮助他与投资人建立联系。 Chinese media closely followed the poaching of a core member of DeepSeek’s team by the electronics company Xiaomi. In Liangzhu, many engineers said they were killing time until they could create their own start-ups, waiting out noncompete agreements they had signed at bigger companies like ByteDance. 小米挖走DeepSeek一名核心团队成员的消息引起了中国媒体密切关注。在良渚，许多工程师表示，他们是在打发时间等待创办自己的初创公司，同时也在等待他们与字节跳动等大公司签署的竞业禁止协议到期。 DeepSeek is one of six A.I. and robotics start-ups from the city that Chinese media calls the “six tigers of Hangzhou.” DeepSeek与其他五家来自杭州的人工智能和机器人初创企业一起，被中国媒体称为“杭州六小龙”。 Last year, one of the six, Game Science, released China’s first big-budget video game to become a global hit, Black Myth: Wukong. Another firm, Unitree, grabbed public attention in January when its robots danced onstage during the Chinese state broadcaster’s televised annual spring gala. 去年，“杭州六小龙”之一的游戏科学发布了中国首款风靡全球的大制作电子游戏《黑神话：悟空》。另一家公司宇树科技则在今年1月引发了广泛关注，它的机器人在中国国家电视台的春晚舞台上表演舞蹈。 This spring, Mingming Zhu, the founder of Rokid, a Hangzhou start-up that makes A.I.-enabled eyeglasses, invited the six founders to his home for dinner. 今年春天，杭州一家生产人工智能眼镜的初创公司Rokid的创始人祝铭明邀请“六小龙”的创始人们到他家聚餐。 It was the first time they had all met in person, Mr. Zhu said. Like him, most of the six had studied at Zhejiang University or worked at Alibaba. 祝铭明说，那是他们所有人第一次线下见面。和他一样，这六人中的大多数都曾在浙江大学学习或在阿里工作过。 “When we started, we were small fish,” Mr. Zhu said. “But even then, the government helped out.” He said government officials had helped him connect with Rokid’s earliest investors, including Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba. “我们起步时只是小鱼小虾，”祝铭明说。“但即便那时，政府也提供了帮助。”他说，政府官员曾帮助他联系到了Rokid最早的投资者，包括阿里巴巴创始人马云。 白天，咖啡馆变成了编程中心。阿里巴巴数字生态创新园是这家科技巨头在杭州租赁给其他科技公司的一个综合园区。 But some said the government support for Hangzhou’s tech scene had scared off some investors. Several company founders who asked not to be named so they could discuss sensitive topics said it was difficult for them to attract funds from foreign venture capital firms, frustrating their ambitions to grow outside China. 但也有人表示，政府对杭州科技圈的扶持吓跑了一些投资者。几位因为话题敏感而不愿透露姓名的公司创始人表示，这让他们很难从外国的风投那里吸引到资金，阻碍了他们在海外发展的雄心。 The nightmare situation, they said, would be to end up like ByteDance, the Chinese parent of TikTok, whose executives have been questioned before Congress about the company’s ties to the Chinese government. 他们说，最糟糕的情况就是变得像TikTok的中国母公司字节跳动那样，其高管因公司与中国政府的关系而要去美国国会接受质询。 Founders described choosing between two paths for their companies’ growth: Take government funding and tailor their product to the Chinese market, or raise enough money on their own to set up offices in a country like Singapore to pitch foreign investors. For most, the first was the only feasible option. 一些创始人描述了公司发展的两条路径选择：要么接受政府资金并根据中国市场研发产品，要么自行筹集足够资金，在新加坡等国家设立办事处以吸引外国投资者。对大多数人而言，前者是唯一可行的选择。 Another uncertainty is access to the advanced computer chips that power artificial intelligence systems. Washington has spent years trying to prevent Chinese companies from buying these chips, and Chinese companies like Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation are racing to produce their own. 另一个不确定性是获取驱动人工智能系统的尖端芯片。华盛顿多年来一直试图阻止中国公司购买这样的芯片，而华为和中芯国际等中国企业正在竞相生产自己的芯片。 So far, the Chinese-made chips work well enough to help companies like ByteDance provide some of their A.I. services in China. Many Chinese companies have created stockpiles of Nvidia chips despite Washington’s controls. But it is not clear how long that supply will last, or how quickly China’s chip makers can catch up to their American counterparts. 到目前为止，中国制造的芯片足以帮助字节跳动等公司在中国提供部分人工智能服务。尽管华盛顿实施了管制，许多中国公司仍然储备了大量英伟达芯片。但目前尚不清楚这种供应能持续多久，也不知道中国的芯片制造商能以多快的速度赶上美国同行。 因低廉的租金以及靠近阿里巴巴、DeepSeek等科技公司，杭州吸引了很多科技人才。许多初创企业创始人表示，杭州的氛围激发了他们的创造力。这座坐落在湖畔的城市，曾是中国历代诗人和画家的灵感源泉。 A seemingly inescapable concept in Hangzhou is “agentic A.I.,” the idea that an artificial intelligence system could be directed to act on its own. 在杭州，一个似乎无处不在的概念是“AI智能体”，即人工智能系统被赋予自主行动能力。 Qian Roy, another Hangzhou entrepreneur, has developed an A.I.-enabled digital companion for young people that responds to their moods based on information from the Myers-Briggs personality test, which is popular among young people in China. His team programmed his app, All Time, using publicly available A.I. systems, including those made by DeepSeek, Alibaba and Anthropic, an American start-up. 另一位杭州的创业者钱睿（音）开发了一款面向年轻人的人工智能数字伴侣，它能根据迈尔斯-布里格斯性格测试（在中国年轻人当中很受欢迎）的信息来响应他们的情绪。他的团队使用公开可用的人工智能系统——DeepSeek、阿里巴巴和美国初创公司Anthropic的产品——为他的应用“万物时”编写程序。 Mindverse, the company co-founded by Mr. Tao, who hosted the backyard event, is working on a product that would use A.I. to help people manage their lives. It can send supportive daily emails to colleagues, for example, or regular text messages to parents reminiscing about family vacations. 在自家后院举办活动的陶芳波与他人一起创办了心识宇宙，这家公司正在开发一款产品，将利用人工智能帮助人们管理生活。例如，它可以每天向同事发送鼓舞他们的电子邮件，或者定期给父母发短信，回忆全家一起度假的时光。 “I don’t want the A.I. to just handle tasks, but to actually give you more mental space so you can unplug,” Mr. Tao said. “我不希望人工智能只是处理任务，而是希望它能为你提供更多的心灵空间，让你能够放松下来，”他说。 Many in the crowd in Mr. Tao’s backyard said the atmosphere in Hangzhou, set on the banks of a lake that was muse to generations of Chinese poets and painters, fueled their creativity. 在陶芳波后院的人群中，许多人表示，杭州的氛围激发了他们的创造力。这座坐落在湖畔的城市，曾是中国历代诗人和画家的灵感源泉。 Lin Yuanlin started his company, Zeabur, while studying at Zhejiang University. His company provides back-end systems to people who are making apps and websites by “vibecoding,” or using A.I. tools to program without deep software knowledge. 林沅霖在浙大读书时就创办了自己的公司Zeabur。该公司通过“随性编程”——即无需具备深厚软件知识就能利用人工智能工具编程——为开发应用程序和网站的人提供后端系统。 地铁上的通勤者，该线路服务于阿里巴巴集团总部及其周边的科技公司。过去十年，杭州市政府为本地的科技产业倾注了大量资源，包括一个名为梦想小镇的开发项目内的初创企业。 Liangzhu is the perfect testing ground for his product, Mr. Lin said. He can lean over to someone in a coffee shop or wander into a neighbor’s living room and learn what kind of support they need for their start-ups. Mr. Lin found himself going to Liangzhu so often that he moved there. 林沅霖说，良渚是其产品的完美试验场。他可以在咖啡馆里向旁人倾身请教，或者走进邻居的客厅，了解他们的初创公司需要什么样的支持。林沅霖去良渚的次数越来越多，最后干脆搬到了那里。 Liangzhu villagers have been hosting film nights. They had recently gathered to watch “The Matrix.” Afterward, they decided the movie should be required viewing, Mr. Lin said. Its theme — people finding their way out of a vast system controlling society — provided spot-on inspiration. 良渚的“村民”们一直在举办电影之夜活动。最近，他们聚在一起观看了《黑客帝国》。林沅霖说，观影结束后，他们认定这部电影应该成为必看片。其主题——人们设法逃脱一个操控社会的庞大系统——正好为他们提供了灵感。 Aspiring founders in Liangzhu, even those who did not go to top universities, believe they could start the next world-changing tech company, Mr. Tao said. 陶芳波说，良渚的这些心怀创业梦想的人，即使没有上过顶尖大学，也相信自己能够创办下一个改变世界的科技公司。 “Many of them are super brave to make a choice to explore their own way, because in China that is not the common way to live your life.” “他们中有许多人非常勇敢地选择探索自己的道路，因为在中国，这不是常见的生活方式。” Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。 Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
MEAGHAN TOBIN, AMY CHANG CHIEN, XINYUN WU2025年7月8日台湾的许多大企业都是依靠在中国的制造业投资发展起来的。 Greg Baker/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images China has long been Taiwan’s most important trading partner, the main buyer of its exports and the place where many of its companies make their products. China is also Taiwan’s greatest threat and claims that the island democracy is part of its territory. 长期以来，中国一直是台湾最重要的贸易伙伴，是台湾出口产品的主要买家，也是台湾许多企业的产品生产地。同时中国也是台湾最大的威胁，宣称这个民主岛屿是其领土的一部分。 Now, Taiwan’s ruling political party says it wants to do more to dismantle the commercial ties that for decades have propelled Taiwan’s economic growth. 现在，台湾执政党表示，希望采取更多措施来减少两者的商业联系，而正是这种联系在过去数十年助推了台湾经济的发展。 President Lai Ching-te is calling for companies that make semiconductors — Taiwan’s main industry — to stop buying from and selling to China. Mr. Lai has said Taiwanese firms, which make the majority of the world’s advanced computer chips, should instead embrace a supply chain that involves only companies from democratic countries. 台湾总统赖清德呼吁台湾主要产业——半导体制造公司停止与中国的交易往来。赖清德表示，台湾企业制造了全球大多数的先进芯片，因此应该建立一个只由民主国家企业组成的供应链。 Last month, Taiwan’s government told Taiwanese businesses that they would need licenses to sell products to two of China’s most important tech companies: the telecommunications giant Huawei and SMIC, formally the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation. Both are key to China’s drive to make its own chips. 上个月，台湾政府告诉台湾企业，它们需要获得许可才能向中国两家最重要的科技公司销售产品：电信巨头华为和中芯国际。这两者都是中国推动芯片自主生产的关键。 台湾总统赖清德加强了对中国威胁的警告。 The move aligns with Washington’s long-running goal of cutting off China’s access to advanced chips. It also underscores how Taiwan is snared between the two superpowers. President Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on Taiwan, and dozens of other U.S. trading partners, as soon as this week. 此举与华盛顿长期以来的目标一致，即切断中国获得先进芯片的渠道。这也凸显了台湾是如何卷入两个超级大国博弈困境的。美国总统特朗普威胁最快将于本周对台湾和其他数十个美国贸易伙伴征收关税。 Taiwan’s ruling party wants to be seen in Washington as a reliable friend of the United States, “even if that means paying a short-term economic cost,” said Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, a think tank at Stanford University. 台湾执政党希望被华盛顿视为美国可靠的伙伴，“即使这意味着要付出短期的经济代价，”斯坦福大学智库胡佛研究所的研究员祁凯立(Kharis Templeman)说。 But Taiwan could pay a high cost for shifting its economy away from China. 但是，台湾经济与中国脱钩可能要付出高昂代价。 For decades, almost all foreign investment by Taiwanese companies went to China. Taiwan’s biggest companies, including the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, and the electronics giant Foxconn, grew on the strength of manufacturing investments in China and sales to Chinese companies. 几十年来，台湾企业几乎所有的对外投资都流向了中国。包括台积电和电子巨头富士康在内的台湾最大企业，都是依靠在中国的制造业投资和对中国企业的销售业绩不断壮大的。 台积电首席执行官魏哲家（右）3月在白宫宣布，该公司将为在美国的业务再投入1000亿美元。 Foxconn, which makes devices for Apple and Nvidia, produces a significant share of the world’s consumer electronics at its factories in central China, where it has benefited from years of government-backed infrastructure investment. The company’s founder, Terry Gou, ran for president in Taiwan in 2024. 为苹果和英伟达代工的富士康在中国中部的工厂生产的消费电子产品占全球很大份额。多年来，它受益于中国政府支持的基础设施投资。该公司创始人郭台铭曾在2024年竞选台湾总统。 Taiwan’s richest person, Barry Lam, built his fortune making laptops in China with his company, Quanta Computer. The Taiwanese food and beverage conglomerate Want Want depends on China for the majority of its sales. Its founder, Tsai Eng-meng, is a vocal supporter of China’s claims on Taiwan and runs pro-Beijing television stations and YouTube channels. 台湾首富林百里通过其公司广达电脑在中国生产笔记本电脑而发家致富。台湾食品饮料企业集团旺旺的大部分销售来自中国市场。它的创始人蔡衍明直言不讳地支持中国对台湾的主权主张，并经营着亲北京的电视台和YouTube频道。 The close ties between the two economies have been seen in Taiwan as a deterrent against China’s aggression, and a way for China to exert its influence over the island. The coupling cuts both ways. 两岸经济的紧密联系在台湾被视为对中国侵略行为的一种威慑，也是中国对台湾施加影响的一种方式。这种联系是双向的。 Over the last decade, some Taiwanese firms have begun to reconsider their dependence on China. In 2014, when Taiwan’s leaders proposed closer economic ties to China, thousands of Taiwanese people protested over fears of becoming too dependent on Beijing. The plan was ultimately shelved. 在过去的十年里，一些台湾公司开始重新考虑他们对中国的依赖。2014年，当台湾领导人提出与中国建立更紧密的经济联系时，数以千计的台湾人因担心变得过于依赖北京而上街抗议。这个计划最终被搁置了。 富士康位于中国中部的工厂生产着全球大部分电子产品。公司创始人郭台铭是台湾最富有的人之一，曾短暂竞选过总统。 The trade tensions and Covid-19 pandemic made Taiwanese businesses pull back further. Last year, just over 7 percent of Taiwan’s new foreign investment went to China, down from over 80 percent in 2010. 贸易紧张局势和新冠疫情使台湾企业进一步减少对中国的投资。去年，台湾新增对外投资中只有略高于7%流向中国，而在2010年，这个比例曾经超过80%。 Still, analysts say completely decoupling the two economies would be difficult. China remains the largest buyer of Taiwan’s exports, especially semiconductors. 尽管如此，分析人士表示，两岸经济完全脱钩将是困难的。中国仍然是台湾出口产品的最大买家，尤其是半导体。 At the same time, Taiwan depends on political and military support from the United States to help resist pressure from Beijing. Mr. Trump has demanded that Taiwan drastically raise its own military spending and accused Taiwan of stealing the lead in semiconductor manufacturing from the United States. Officials in Taiwan have committed to a slight increase in military spending, and TSMC said it would more than double its investments in the United States to $165 billion. 同时，台湾依靠美国的政治和军事支持来抵抗来自北京的压力。特朗普要求台湾大幅提高军费开支，并指责台湾从美国窃取了半导体制造业的领先地位。台湾官员已承诺略微增加军事开支，台积电表示，将把在美国的投资增加一倍以上，达到1650亿美元。 The sale of tech equipment to China is likely to be a continuing source of friction, and negotiation, for Taiwan in its dealings with the Trump administration. 向中国出售技术设备可能会成为台湾与特朗普政府之间摩擦和谈判的持续来源。 Last year, a chip made by TSMC ended up in a Huawei device despite U.S. export controls, angering officials in Washington. Taiwan’s addition of Huawei and SMIC to its restricted trade list is a step toward cutting off the business that has continued to flow to China. 去年，尽管美国实行出口管制，但台积电制造的芯片最终被用在了华为的设备上，这激怒了华盛顿的官员。台湾将华为和中芯国际列入限制贸易清单，是朝着切断继续流向中国的业务迈出的一步。 Despite the pressures pushing Taiwan further away, there are compelling forces drawing companies to China. 尽管种种压力使得台湾与中国渐行渐远，但仍有强大的吸引力促使企业前往中国发展。 几十年来，台湾企业的大部分对外投资都流向了中国。2018年，台湾领先的芯片制造商台积电在中国南京设厂。 Howard Yuan, 36, is a manager at Superb International in Shanghai, a garment manufacturer his family founded in Taiwan and expanded to China in the 1980s. He said it would be hard to replace China’s suppliers. 36岁的袁皓天是上海山珀公司的经理。他的家族在台湾创办了这家服装制造商，并于上世纪80年代将业务扩展到中国。他说，中国的供应商难以取代。 And Ruby Chen, 32, said China was an easier place to start a business than Taiwan. For the past three years, she has run a wellness company focused on traditional Chinese medicine in Shandong, China. 32岁的陈玟婷说，在中国创业比在台湾容易。在过去的三年里，她在中国山东经营一家以中医为主的保健公司。 “It’s very suitable for beginners in entrepreneurship,” said Ms. Chen, who hosts boot camps for Taiwanese businesspeople who want to start companies in Shandong. “I was just a working-class girl from an ordinary family, with a bit of savings,” she said. “这里很适合创业小白，”陈玟婷说，她为想在山东创业的台湾商人举办训练营。她说：“我就是一个一般的小家庭出来的小资女，身上有一点存款。” Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。 Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。 Xinyun Wu是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道科技、台湾和中国新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
KEITH BRADSHER2025年7月8日据中国学者发表的学术论文，这个人工泥浆湖被铅、镉，以及其他重金属（包括微量的放射性元素钍）污染。 The New York Times Chinese mines and refineries produce most of the world’s rare earth metals and practically all of a few crucial kinds of rare earths. This has given China’s government near complete control over a critical choke point in global trade. 中国掌控着全球稀土金属开采和精炼的绝对主导权，尤其在数种关键稀土品类上近乎垄断。这一优势使中国政府扼住了全球贸易的战略咽喉。 But for decades in northern China, toxic sludge from rare earth processing has been dumped into a four-square-mile artificial lake. In south-central China, rare earth mines have poisoned dozens of once-green valleys and left hillsides stripped to barren red clay. 但在中国北方，几十年的稀土精炼产生的废弃物倾倒在一个面积达11平方公里的人工湖里。在中南部，稀土矿的开采已导致几十个绿意盎然的山谷被污染，山坡被挖到只剩下贫瘠的红土。 Achieving dominance in rare earths came with a heavy cost for China, which largely tolerated severe environmental damage for many years. The industrialized world, by contrast, had tighter regulations and stopped accepting even limited environmental harm from the industry as far back as the 1990s, when rare earth mines and processing centers closed elsewhere. 中国为获得稀土行业主导地位付出了沉重代价，多年来，政府在很大程度上容许了严重的环境破坏。相比之下，工业化国家的监管更为严格，早在20世纪90年代就不再接受稀土生产造成的哪怕是有限的环境损害，导致中国以外的稀土矿和加工厂关闭。 In China, the worst damage occurred in and around Baotou, a flat, industrial city of two million people in China’s Inner Mongolia, on the southern edge of the Gobi Desert. Baotou calls itself the world capital of the rare earth industry, but the city and its people bear the scars from decades of poorly regulated rare earths production. 中国稀土生产污染最严重的地方当属包头及其周边地区。包头位于内蒙古，是一座拥有200万人口的工业城市，它地势平坦，北接戈壁滩。包头自诩为世界稀土之都，但几十年的稀土生产监管不力让这座城市及其人民深受其害。 An artificial lake of sludge known as the Weikuang Dam, four square miles in size, holds the waste left over after metals are extracted from mined ore. During the winter and spring, the sludge dries out. The dust that then blows off the lake is contaminated with lead, cadmium and other heavy metals, including traces of radioactive thorium, according to technical papers by Chinese scholars. 一个被称为“尾矿库”的人工泥浆湖占地达11平方公里，里面堆存的是把金属从矿石中提取出来后余留下来的废渣。泥浆在冬天和春天变干，导致湖面上飘扬着含有铅、镉以及其他重金属粉尘，据中国学者发表的学术论文，其中包括微量放射性元素钍。 During the summer rainy season, the sludge becomes coated with a layer of water that mixes with poisons and thorium. This dangerous mix seeps into the groundwater underneath the lake. 在夏天的雨季，泥浆湖面变成了一层包含有毒物质和放射性钍的积水。这种危险的混合液体从湖底渗漏到地下水层。 The Weikuang Dam, also known as a tailings lake, is seven miles north of the Yellow River and was built in the 1950s without the thick, waterproof liner underneath that became standard in the West in the 1970s. Baotou’s lake is so large that it cannot easily be rebuilt with a liner. 该尾矿库在黄河以北10多公里的地方，建于20世纪50年代，修建时湖底没有铺设厚厚的环保防渗层，这种防渗层在20世纪70年代成为了西方国家的行业规范。包头尾矿库面积巨大，重新铺设防渗层不是容易的事情。 Government cleanup efforts have helped mitigate some health and safety risks in the industry. But Chinese academics and other experts have warned that environmental damage remains after years of poor practices and lax oversight. 政府的环境整治努力帮助缓解了稀土行业的部分健康和安全风险。但中国的学者和其他专家警告说，多年来的不良做法和监管不力带来的环境损害依然存在。 “The closer to the tailings lake, the more serious the pollution and the higher the environmental and ecological risk,” said scholars at the Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology in a research paper in January. “离尾矿库越近，污染越严重，环境和生态风险越高，”内蒙古科技大学的学者在今年1月发表的一篇研究论文中指出。 Similarly, researchers at the elite Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, which is a government ministry, warned in a technical paper last year about “serious air and tailings pond pollution” in the Baotou area. 位于北京的部级研究机构中国科学院的研究人员去年在一篇研究论文中也发出过类似的警告，称包头地区存在“严重的空气和尾矿库污染”。 The Baotou Radiation Environment Management Office warned in 2009 that at the Bayan Obo iron ore and rare earths mine, 80 miles north of the city in the Gobi Desert, radioactive thorium was being “discharged into the environment in the form of waste slag, wastewater and dust.” In 2003, another paper found intellectual development disorders among children in Baotou affected by rare earths industry pollution, and a paper in 2017 found that children in Baotou still had potentially harmful levels of rare earths in their urine. 包头市生态环境局负责辐射安全监管的办公室曾在2009年警告说，在包头市以北约130公里、位于戈壁滩的白云鄂博矿（这里生产铁矿和稀土元素矿），矿石中的放射性钍“以废渣、废水和粉尘的形式排放到环境中”。一篇2003年的论文发现，受稀土工业环境污染的影响，包头市儿童中存在智力发育迟缓的问题。另一篇发表在2017年的论文发现，包头儿童的尿液中稀土元素的含量仍高达可能对健康有害的水平。 包头钢厂和稀土提炼厂附近的一条土路，摄于2010年10月。 The enormous Bayan Obo strip mine produces most of China’s so-called light rare earths, like lanthanum for oil refining, and most of its medium rare earths, like samarium for the magnets in fighter jets and missiles. In trade disputes with the United States and the European Union, China has since April halted exports of samarium to any country and has restricted exports of heavy rare earths, which are mined separately near Longnan in south-central China. 白云鄂博矿是一个巨大的露天矿，该矿生产中国的绝大部分轻稀土，例如用于炼油的镧，以及中国的大部分中稀土，例如战斗机和导弹磁体用钐。中国在与美国和欧盟的贸易争端中，自今年4月起全面停止钐的出口，并对重稀土的出口进行限制。中国的重稀土矿位于中南部的龙南地区。 Until a crackdown in 2010 and 2011, many illegal mines in south-central China spilled acid and ammonia into streams, poisoning rice fields. 政府在2010年、2011年开始进行环境整改之前，中国中南部的许多非法矿山曾把含有酸和氨的废水排入小溪，给附近的稻田造成了严重污染。 China’s leaders have been working for over a decade to clean up the country’s rare earth industry, at a cost running into the billions of dollars. 中国领导人们十多年来一直在努力对稀土行业进行环境整改，已经投入了上百亿人民币。 “Excessive rare earth mining has resulted in landslides, clogged rivers, environmental pollution emergencies and even major accidents and disasters, causing great damage to people’s safety and health and the ecological environment,” China’s cabinet wrote in 2012 in a comprehensive report on the industry’s pollution. “一些地方因为稀土的过度开采，还造成山体滑坡、河道堵塞、突发性环境污染事件，甚至造成重大事故灾难，给公众的生命健康和生态环境带来重大损失，”中国国务院曾在2012年发布的《稀土状况与政策》白皮书中这样写道。 During a visit I made in 2010 to the Baotou tailings lake, a berm, little more than a high pile of earth, lay around its perimeter to contain the sludge. Rare earth refineries, then along the north side of the lake, were crude facilities with workers stirring big vats by hand. A nearby residential community had high rates of pollution-related health problems, according to Chinese experts at the time. Baotou itself was shrouded with smog, and the air had an acrid, faintly metallic taste. 我曾在2010年去包头那个尾矿库做实地探访，将库区围起来的不过是一条用土堆成的护坡道。尾矿库的北边是稀土精炼厂，工厂的设施那时很简陋，工人们搅拌着大桶里的东西。据中国专家当时的说法，附近的一个居民区有很高的污染致病率。包头也笼罩在雾霾之中，空气里有略带金属感的刺鼻气味。 工人们为包头的钢厂和稀土提炼厂修建排放废料的管道，一名牧羊人从他们前边走过，摄于2010年10月。 Some progress since then is visible. During a return visit in early June, it was clear that the berm had been reinforced with stones. And outside the berm was a concrete-walled moat that could catch leaks from the berm. 如今环境整改已取得了一些看得见的进展。我今年6月初回到那里时看到，护坡道已明显地用石头进行了加固。护坡道的外边还修了一条用混凝土围筑的护城河，能堵住从护坡道里渗漏出来的泥浆。 The residential community had been moved to a less polluted area of the city. Replacing it were steel-walled industrial sheds. Few people were around. The smog had disappeared, and the air tasted clean. 附近的居民区已迁到了包头市污染较少的地方。取而代之的是用钢墙修建的工棚。周围没有多少人。雾霾也消失了，空气的气味清新。 Dust from the lake is a more difficult problem to resolve. In processing rare earths, acid is used to pry apart the chemical envelope that contains them in nature. Radioactive thorium is almost always released. In Baotou, it was simply dumped into the lake for decades instead of being stored in special repositories, as required in the West. 尾矿库的粉尘问题更难解决。稀土的提取需要用酸来将其从自然界的化合物状态中分离出来。这个过程几乎不可避免地将放射性钍释放出来。包头的工厂几十年来一直将钍直接倾倒在尾矿库里，而不是像西方国家那样，将其储存在专门地点。 The Inner Mongolia government announced in 2015 that refineries had begun treating their waste before discharging it into the lake, but did not specify how the thorium was handled. 内蒙古政府虽然已在2015年宣布，精炼厂已开始在排入尾矿库之前对废料进行处理，但没有具体说明钍的处置方案。 In the days of the Soviet Union, thorium dust blew across Scandinavia from a tailings pond at a rare earth processing facility in Estonia. Soon after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the European Union spent close to 1 billion euros to build an adjacent pit with 10-foot-thick concrete walls, move the sludge into it and then cover it with 30 feet of dirt. 苏联时代，爱沙尼亚一家稀土加工厂尾矿库的含钍尘埃曾飘越过斯堪的纳维亚半岛。1991年苏联解体后不久，欧盟耗资近10亿欧元，在老库邻近建了一个有三米厚混凝土墙的新库，将泥浆从老库转运到新库，然后用了一个九米厚的泥土层将其覆盖起来。 The Weikuang Dam has vastly more sludge because the effluent from rare earth processing is mixed into an enormous volume of material from iron ore processing. Any effort to move and store the sludge would be a logistical challenge, and no attempt to do so was visible when I visited in June. 包头尾矿库存放的泥浆量比任何地方的都多，因为里面除了稀土加工产生的废水，还有数量巨大的铁矿石加工废渣。任何将泥浆搬到别的地方储存的努力将面临巨大的组织工作挑战，我6月份去那里时，完全没有看到任何清运尝试。 江西龙南市郊区一座正在开采的重稀土矿，摄于今年4月。 But even as other cleanup measures continue, the Chinese authorities have increasingly censored discussions of rare earth industry pollution. State media reported a decade ago that thousands of acres of grasslands near Baotou had been closed to livestock grazing after sheep and goats had been fatally poisoned by dust from the rare earth industry. But practically no mention of that incident can be found online now inside China. 但就在持续推进环境整治的同时，中国当局已在越来越严格地审查有关稀土行业污染的讨论。中国官媒十多年前曾报道，稀土工业产生的粉尘污染导致羊等牲畜死亡，包头附近的数千亩草原被禁止放牧。但如今在中国境内的网上，几乎找不到任何有关上述事件的报道。 Oversight of the rare earth industry in Baotou is complicated. Pollution regulation in China is mainly the responsibility of provincial governments — in this case, the government of Inner Mongolia. 对包头稀土行业的监管颇为复杂。中国的污染监管主要由省级政府负责，对包头来说是内蒙古自治区政府。 But the same provincial government also owns Baogang Group, a mining and chemicals giant that runs the Bayan Obo mine, the steel mills and most of the rare earth refineries in Baotou. Baogang has been a pillar of China’s military-industrial complex since Mao. The Baotou Museum celebrates that Baogang made much of the steel for China’s tanks and artillery in the 1950s. 但内蒙古自治区政府也是包钢集团的拥有者，这家矿业和化工巨头经营着白云鄂博矿、钢铁厂，以及包头的大部分稀土精炼厂。从毛泽东时代以来，包钢一直是中国军工产业的重要支柱。包头博物馆自豪地宣称，包钢曾在20世纪50年代为中国的坦克和大炮生产了大量钢材。 During my trip to Baotou in early June, two colleagues and I were stopped on a public road by eight carloads of police officers and Baogang security guards and questioned. We were put in the back of a police cruiser and later taken to a guardroom at Baogang’s headquarters. With 21 carloads of police officers and local officials outside, we were held for two hours and questioned further before being released and told that the Weikuang Dam was “a business secret of the Baogang Group.” 今年6月初去包头时，我和两名同事在公路上被八辆里面坐有警察和包钢保安的车拦截。我们被带上一辆警车，然后被带到包钢总部的一个警卫室。我们在那里被扣留了两个小时，经进一步盘问才被释放，警卫室外面当时有21辆警车和当地官员的汽车。我们被告知尾矿库是“包钢集团的商业秘密”。 A woman there who said she was with Baogang’s rare earth subsidiary, but did not provide her name, said that Baogang declined to comment. 那里一名自称在包钢稀土子公司工作，但没有透露姓名的女士说，包钢拒绝对本文置评。 There were also modest signs of environmental improvement during a visit in April to the main valley producing heavy rare earths near Longnan. 我今年4月去龙南附近生产重稀土的主要山谷走访时，也看到了环境改善的些许迹象。 A small tailings pond next to the largest of the mines had a black liner visibly sticking up around its sides, in an apparent attempt to contain pollution. 在一个位于最大矿场边的小尾矿池可以看出池内壁上有黑色内衬，似乎是一种控制污染的尝试。 But a creek flowing through the valley past several smaller mines was bright orange and bubbling mysteriously. 但一条从山谷流出、途径几座更小矿场的小溪是鲜橙色的，里面冒着神秘的水泡。 Li You对本文有研究贡献。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MUJIB MASHAL, HARI KUMAR2025年7月7日过去一周，印度达兰萨拉的藏人在楚格拉康（又称达赖喇嘛寺庙群）附近跳起了“白星期舞”——这是一种藏族圆圈舞，每逢星期三表演，因为星期三被视为具有特殊文化意义。 As the Dalai Lama built a nation in exile after fleeing Chinese persecution in the 1950s, the young leader pinned its survival on an idea that had long fascinated him: democracy. 20世纪50年代，当达赖喇嘛在逃离中国的迫害后开始建立流亡政府时，这位年轻的领袖将其成败寄托在一个长期令他着迷的理念上：民主。 It was part natural inclination, part strategy. 这既是天性使然，也是一种战略考量。 On visits to neighboring India, he had been charmed by its nascent republic’s culture of open debate. He also knew that too much power had been vested in one man as both the spiritual and political leader of Tibet. 在访问邻国印度时，他被这个新兴共和国的公开辩论文化所吸引。同时他也意识到，将过多的权力集中在一个人身上、令他同时成为西藏的精神和政治领袖是不妥的。 So, over the decades, he gradually devolved his own power to an elected Parliament based in the Indian Himalayas, and then retired his political role completely in 2011. Creating a robust structure not dependent on a single leader, he believed, according to senior monks and officials close to him, would help exiled Tibetans withstand Beijing’s efforts to crush their movement for freedom and autonomy. 因此，几十年来，他逐步将自己的权力下放给位于印度喜马拉雅山区的民选议会，并于2011年彻底退出政治角色。据身边的高级僧侣和官员说，他相信，建立一个不依赖于单一领袖的稳固体制将有助于流亡藏人在争取自由与自治的努力中抵御北京的打压。 周三，在达兰萨拉的本地茶摊前消磨时光。 “The rule by kings and religious figures is outdated,” the Dalai Lama, who celebrates his 90th birthday on Sunday, said the year he gave up his political role. “We have to follow the trend of the free world, which is that of democracy.” “国王和宗教人物的统治已经过时了，”达赖喇嘛在他放弃政治角色的那一年说道——这位在上周日迎来了90岁生日的精神领袖表示，“我们必须跟随自由世界的潮流，那就是民主。” This past week, the Dalai Lama seemed to rule out the unorthodox ideas he had suggested over the years to prevent the Chinese government from meddling in the process of finding a successor in the vacuum after his death. He reaffirmed his commitment to traditional practices, while declaring that his office had sole authority over them. 在刚刚过去的一周，达赖喇嘛似乎否定了他多年来提出的一些非常规想法，这些想法原本是为了防止中国政府在他去世后干预寻找继任者的过程。他重申将遵循传统做法，同时明确表示，只有他的办公室对这一过程拥有唯一权威。 That all but guarantees a dispute, analysts say, with the prospect of two Dalai Lamas — one promoted by Beijing and the other recognized by the Dalai Lama’s office in exile. 分析人士表示，这几乎注定将引发一场争议——很可能会出现两个达赖喇嘛：一个由北京方面推举，另一个则由达赖喇嘛流亡办公室所承认。 The institutionalized democracy entrenched by the Dalai Lama was built for this moment. 达赖喇嘛所建立并巩固的制度化民主正是为这一时刻而准备的。 Since 2011, Tibetan exiles — who number around 140,000, half of them in India — have chosen a president through a direct vote held across refugee settlements in India and in small diaspora pockets around the world. 自2011年以来，约有14万名藏人流亡者（其中一半居住在印度）参加印度各地难民定居点以及全球各地的小型侨居社区举行的直接投票，选举出他们的司政。 The president, known as the sikyong, leads a shoestring administration that oversees schools, clinics, monasteries and even agricultural cooperatives and old-age homes. 司政领导着一个资源紧张的行政机构，负责管理学校、诊所、寺院，甚至包括农业合作社和养老院。 2024年，位于印度拜拉库比的措杰康萨医院。2024年，学生在拜拉库比一所小学学习弹奏藏族琵琶。 This democracy, constructed over more than half a century, may be the most vivid legacy of the Dalai Lama’s modernizing efforts to preserve Tibetan traditions abroad while resisting Chinese influence. 在达赖喇嘛为在海外保存藏人传统、抵御中国影响而进行的现代化努力中，这个历经半个多世纪构建起来的民主制度或许是最显著的遗产。 “The political system of governance, the struggle, the same democratic system will continue even in the interregnum,” Penpa Tsering, the president of the Tibetan government in exile, said this past week, referring to the period after a Dalai Lama dies and his reincarnation is found and groomed for the role. “即使在达赖喇嘛圆寂与其转世灵童被发现并培养期间的过渡时期，政治治理体制、抗争以及同样的民主制度也将继续存在，”藏人行政中央司政边巴次仁本周表示。 While the spiritual leader has tried to forge a resilient administration, China will have levers to pull with India and the United States, two of the strongest supporters of the Dalai Lama’s seven-decade cause, to try to dry out their support. 虽然这位精神领袖努力打造一个有韧性的行政机构，但中国可能会利用对印度和美国的影响力——这两个国家都是达赖喇嘛七十多年事业最坚定的支持者——试图削弱他们的支持。 The exile government’s vulnerability became clear this year when the Trump administration froze aid as part of global cuts. About a quarter of the annual $40 million budget for the government in exile comes from the United States. 今年，随着特朗普政府进行全球项目裁减，相关援助被冻结，流亡政府的脆弱性变得明显。流亡政府每年约4000万美元的预算中大约四分之一来自美国。 2024年，藏人流亡政府司政彭巴次仁在达兰萨拉的办公室。周六，达赖喇嘛抵达达兰萨拉的主要藏传佛教寺庙，人们在那里为他的长寿祈福。 Mr. Tsering said the exile administration had recently managed to persuade the U.S. government to lift the freeze on a large share of the money. 边巴次仁表示，流亡政府最近成功说服美国政府解冻了大部分资金。 “It does affect the momentum of the work we have set in — we lost six months,” he said. “这确实影响了我们既定工作的推进——我们失去了六个月的时间，”他说。 India is also keeping its options open, dealing with the issue delicately in recent years so as not to deepen trouble with China. 印度也给自己留了余地，近年来在这一问题上处理得相当谨慎，以避免与中国的关系进一步恶化。 New Delhi has formally recognized Tibet as part of Chinese territory. After the Dalai Lama’s announcement about his reincarnation, an Indian minister announced support for that position. 新德里正式承认西藏是中国的一部分。但在达赖喇嘛就其转世问题发表声明后，一位印度部长表示支持这一立场。 But he later clarified his statement as something he had expressed as a fellow Buddhist, and not in his capacity as a representative of the Indian government. India’s foreign ministry issued a statement saying it wasn’t taking a position on the matter. 这位部长随后澄清说，他是在以一名佛教徒而不是印度政府代表的身份表态。印度外交部也发表声明称，印度在此问题上并未持立场。 During visits to two of the largest Tibetan settlements in India — in Dharamsala, where the government in exile is based, and in Bylakuppe, in southern India — the anxiety over a transition after the Dalai Lama was evident. 在走访印度两个最大的藏人定居点——达兰萨拉（流亡政府所在地）和南部的拜拉库比时，人们对达赖喇嘛圆寂后过渡时期的焦虑情绪显而易见。 Tenzin Jigdal, a member of the Tibetan Parliament in exile, said he had been calling for a careful analysis of possible vulnerabilities. 流亡藏人议会议员丹增晋达表示，他一直呼吁对可能存在的脆弱环节进行深入分析。 “How prepared are we for the coming years, in post-Dalai Lama scenario?” he said on the sidelines of a parliamentary session in Dharamsala in September. “If you see this inevitability in advance, the least you can do is you can prepare in advance.” “在达赖喇嘛去世的情况下，我们对未来几年准备得有多充分？”他在9月达兰萨拉一次议会会议间隙说道，“如果你能提前预见这一不可避免的局面，至少你可以提前做好准备。” The Parliament, with an array of groupings and factions, has come a long way since it held its first sessions under a tree months after the Dalai Lama became a refugee. 当年，达赖喇嘛开始流亡几个月后，议会曾在一棵树下举行首次会议，如今这个拥有众多派别和团体的议会已经走过了漫长的历程。 2024年，在达兰萨拉出席年度会议的流亡藏人议员。去年议会会议第一天，流亡藏人议会的议员。 Its 45 members meet twice a year — once in the spring to approve a budget and once in the fall to hear the government’s performance report. Except for nearly a dozen standing committee leaders who stay in Dharamsala, most of the members have other jobs during the year, and some come from as far as Europe and North America. 议会由45名成员组成，每年召开两次会议——春季审议预算，秋季听取政府工作报告。除近十几位常务委员会负责人留驻达兰萨拉外，大多数议员在一年中的其他时间都有各自的工作，有些成员甚至来自欧洲和北美。 During the session in September, as the lawmakers filed into the small hall, they bowed to a large portrait of the Dalai Lama before taking their seats for the day’s proceedings. He also loomed large over the debate. 9月的会议期间，当议员们陆续走进这个小礼堂时，会先向一幅达赖喇嘛的大幅画像鞠躬，然后才入座参加当天的议程。达赖的身影也在整个辩论中占据着重要地位。 Mr. Tsering, the president, was presenting the report on the performance of his government’s cultural and religious activities. He read for nearly half an hour, page after page, as many members tried to stay alert with the help of the tea in front of them. 边巴次仁正在汇报政府在文化和宗教活动方面的工作绩效。他连续念了将近半个小时，一页接一页，许多议员靠着面前的茶水努力保持清醒。 Outside, under a tent erected on a basketball court, a couple of hundred refugees seated in red plastic chairs closely followed the proceedings. They cheered and clapped when they were in agreement with a speaker. 在外面一顶搭在篮球场上的帐篷下，几百名难民坐在红色塑料椅上，密切关注着会议进程。他们认同某位发言者的观点时会欢呼并鼓掌。 流亡议会议长堪布索南登贝在去年秋天的会议上发言。观看9月议会会议第一天的现场直播。 During a question-and-answer session, one opposition lawmaker tried to score a jab. The Dalai Lama had just undergone knee replacement surgery in New York. Why had the president disturbed his rest by visiting him, she asked. 在问答环节，一位反对派议员试图抛出一个尖锐的问题。她问道，达赖喇嘛刚刚在纽约接受了膝盖置换手术，为什么司政要打扰他休息，亲自去探望他？ The crowd under the tent booed and jeered. It was a low blow. 帐篷下的群众发出嘘声和嘲笑声。这是一次卑劣的攻击。 Mr. Tsering and other officials said that while the administration was focused on the delivery of services, its overarching mission remained the preservation of Tibetan culture, language and traditions that are being wiped out in their homeland by the Chinese Communist Party. 边巴次仁和其他官员表示，虽然政府专注于提供各项服务，但其总体使命依然是保护藏族文化、语言和传统。在他们的故土，这些正被中国共产党逐步消灭。 That work has become harder as Tibetan refugees, now in their third generation, have spread out over about two dozen countries. Connections to the homeland are waning. And the Dalai Lama, their unifying symbol, has reduced his travels and engagements as he has aged. 随着藏人难民进入第三代，分散在大约二十多个国家，这项工作变得更加艰难。与故土的联系日益减弱，而作为他们团结象征的达赖喇嘛随着年事渐高，也减少了旅行和公开活动。 “In India, the Tibetan community is large, so we don’t face any problem in preserving culture,” said Jigme Namgyal, the education secretary in the government in exile. “But in the West, Tibetans are scattered, so it’s a bit challenging. But what we do is in all the Tibetan communities in the West, we have weekend schools.” “在印度，藏人社区规模庞大，因此我们在保护文化方面没有遇到什么问题，”流亡政府教育秘书吉美南杰说道。“但在西方，藏人分散，因此面临一些挑战。不过，我们在西方所有藏人社区都开设了周末学校。” The challenges of migration and demographic change were most visible in the Tibetan settlements in Bylakuppe, in the south Indian state of Karnataka. 迁徙和人口结构变化带来的挑战在印度南部卡纳塔克邦的拜拉库比藏人定居点表现得尤为明显。 More than 5,000 residents live in the settlements, as well as thousands of monks who flow through the monasteries. The exile government has two senior settlement officers who oversee the delivery of services with the help of a staff of nearly 200. The refugees run shops and restaurants, and often hire local labor. 定居点中居住着超过5000名居民，以及数千名在寺院中修行的僧侣。流亡政府派驻了两位高级定居官，带领近200名工作人员负责各项服务的落实。难民们经营商店和餐馆，并常常雇用当地劳工。 “Our death rate is higher than our birthrate. People are also migrating out of India,” said Sonam Yougyai, 55, a hospital administrator. “You go inside the house, and you only find old people.” “我们的死亡率高于出生率。人们还在不断迁出印度，”55岁的医院管理人员索朗·悠杰说。“你走进一户人家，看到的只有老人。” 达兰萨拉的藏人国家烈士纪念碑。2024年，印度拜拉库比的一所藏族学校。 At the Sambhota Tibetan Primary School, classes were sparsely attended. The school has 49 students from grades 1 to 5. They are taught the Tibetan language, English, environmental sciences, math and arts. 在桑布扎藏族小学，课堂里人很少。该校从一年级到五年级共有49名学生。学生们学习藏语、英语、环境科学、数学和艺术。 Sherab Wangmo, 34, the school’s head teacher, said that in addition to teaching the students language and culture, they are shown videos to remind them of how they became refugees. 学校校长、34岁的谢拉布·旺姆表示，除了教授学生语言和文化外，学校还会播放一些视频，以提醒他们，他们自己是如何成为难民的。 She, like a majority of the diaspora population, was born outside Tibet and has never seen her homeland. 和大多数流亡藏人一样，她出生在西藏以外，从未见过自己的故乡。 “Through dance and songs, we teach them about the Tibetan rivers,” she said. “We also teach them through songs and dances that good days will come one day and we will go back to our homeland.” “我们通过舞蹈和歌曲教孩子们认识西藏的河流，”她说。“我们也通过歌舞教他们，相信美好的日子终将到来，我们有一天会回到故乡。” 上周，在达兰萨拉表演藏族舞蹈“白星期舞”。 摄影：Atul Loke Mujib Mashal自达兰萨拉、Hari Kumar自达兰萨拉和拜拉库比报道。 Mujib Mashal是《纽约时报》南亚分社社长，负责领导时报对印度及其周边不同地区的报道，包括孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和不丹。 Hari Kumar负责报道印度新闻，常驻新德里。他从事记者工作已超过20年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
黄安伟2025年7月7日上个月，在以色列对德黑兰的袭击中，一辆救护车被焚毁。尽管表面上显得团结，俄罗斯、中国和朝鲜在伊朗与以色列的战争期间，以及美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，并未迅速援助伊朗。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times When Russia enlisted the aid of China, North Korea and Iran in its war against Ukraine, some American and British officials began talking about a new “axis.” 当俄罗斯在对乌克兰的战争中争取到中国、朝鲜和伊朗的援助时，一些美国和英国官员开始谈论一个新的“轴心”。 It appeared that the four countries were united by anger, authoritarianism and animus against the United States and its allies. 这四个国家似乎因愤怒、威权体制以及对美国及其盟友的敌意而走到了一起。 But Iran’s sales of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia for its war and oil shipped to China did not pay off when it mattered, raising doubts about unity among the nations. 但伊朗向俄罗斯出售无人机和弹道导弹用于战争、向中国出口石油等行为在关键时刻并未带来回报，这引发了人们对这几个国家之间团结程度的质疑。 None of the other three states rushed to aid Iran during its war with Israel or when U.S. forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites. China and Russia, by far the two most powerful countries among the four, issued pro forma denunciations of the American actions but did not lift a finger to materially help Iran. 在伊朗与以色列交战或美国轰炸伊朗核设施时，其他三国都没有迅速提供援助。中国和俄罗斯——这四国中最强大的两个国家——只是象征性地谴责了美方行动，并未采取任何实际行动来支持伊朗。 “The reality of this conflict turned out to be that Russia and China didn’t run to Iran’s rescue,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “That just exposes the limitations of the whole ‘axis’ idea.” “这场冲突的现实是，俄罗斯和中国并没有赶去帮助伊朗，”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫说道。“这恰恰暴露了整个‘轴心’概念的局限性。” “Each of them is pretty selfish and doesn’t want to get embroiled in the wars of others,” he added. “These are very different wars and different sets of conflicts. The countries are not necessarily sharing the same structures and values and institutional links the same way the U.S. and its allies do.” “他们每一个国家都自谋私利，并不想卷入他国的战争，”他补充道。“这些战争本质上非常不同，涉及的冲突也各不相同。这些国家也不像美国及其盟友那样共享相同的体系、价值观和制度纽带。” The four nations all have autocratic systems and harbor hostility toward the United States, which traditionally has aimed to weaken them and challenge their legitimacy. The countries also have some strategic ties and have undermined U.S.-led economic sanctions by doing commerce and sharing weapons technology with one another. 这四个国家都实行威权体制，并对美国怀有敌意，而美国历来致力于削弱这些国家的力量并质疑它们的合法性。这些国家之间也存在一定的战略联系，并通过军事技术共享与贸易往来构建战略协作关系，以突破美国主导的经济制裁。 “Yes, there is probably a very modest amount of coordination among China, North Korea, Iran and Russia — in the sense that they talk with each other and have some of the same frustrations with the United States or with the West,” said Michael Kimmage, a history professor at Catholic University of America and a former State Department official who has written a book on the war in Ukraine. “是的，中国、朝鲜、伊朗和俄罗斯之间可能确实存在一些非常有限的协调——也就是说，他们彼此之间有沟通，并在对美国或西方的不满方面有一些共同点，”曾任国务院官员的美国天主教大学历史学教授、乌克兰战争专著作者迈克尔·金梅奇表示。 “But it’s not particularly meaningful,” he added. “但这并没有太大意义，”他补充道。 Among the nations, only Russia and North Korea have a mutual defense treaty. Besides providing weapons to Russia, North Korea has sent more than 14,000 troops to fight alongside the Russians against Ukrainian forces. 在这几个国家中，只有俄罗斯和朝鲜签有共同防御条约。除了向俄罗斯提供武器外，朝鲜还派出了超过1.4万名士兵，与俄军共同对抗乌克兰部队。 Their bond is rooted in a shared Communist past and the anti-American war on the Korean Peninsula from 1950 to 1953, in which Mao’s China also took part. 俄朝纽带根植于共同的共产主义历史，以及1950年至1953年在朝鲜半岛进行的反美战争，当时毛泽东领导下的中国也参与了这场战争。 今年4月，俄罗斯总统普京与朝鲜领导人金正恩举行会晤的新闻画面。除了向俄罗斯提供武器外，朝鲜还派遣了超过1.4万名士兵协助俄军对抗乌克兰部队。 That history also accounts for the close ties between China and Russia, one of the most consequential bilateral relationships for the U.S. government and much of the world. The leaders of the two nations have forged a personal bond over many years, and their governments announced that they had a “no limits” partnership just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 这段历史也解释了中俄之间的紧密关系，这是美国政府乃至世界许多国家都极为关注的一个关键双边关系。两国领导人多年来建立了私谊，而就在俄罗斯于2022年2月全面入侵乌克兰前几周，两国政府还宣布建立“无止境”的伙伴关系。 China still sees value in abiding by some of the international norms promoted by a pre-Trump America and democratic nations, and it has refrained from sending substantial arms aid to Russia during the war. But it has helped to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base, U.S. officials said, and it continues to be one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil. 中国仍然珍视特朗普执政前美国与民主国家推动的一些国际规范，并且在战争期间避免向俄罗斯提供大量军事援助。但美国官员表示，中国确实帮助俄罗斯重建了国防工业基础，并且仍然是俄罗斯石油的最大买家之一。 Russia and Iran have never had that type of relationship. 而俄罗斯和伊朗之间从未建立过那种关系。 One issue is religion. Iran is a theocracy with the type of ruling body that the other three secular, traditionally socialist nations regard with suspicion. Both Russia and China view the spread of Islamic fundamentalism with alarm. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has taken extreme measures against even moderate Muslims, suppressing some Islamic practices among ethnic Uyghurs and Kazakhs in his country’s northwest. 其中一个问题是宗教。伊朗是一个神权国家，其执政模式令其他三个世俗的、传统上信奉社会主义的国家心存疑虑。俄罗斯和中国都对伊斯兰原教旨主义的传播感到警惕。中国领导人习近平对待即便是温和的穆斯林也采取了极端措施，在中国西北部的维吾尔族和哈萨克族中压制一些伊斯兰教的习俗。 “There are no shared values beyond vague platitudes about the ‘multipolar world order,’ and there are quite a few contradictions,” said Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian at Johns Hopkins University. “Putin indicated what they are: His relationships with Iran’s neighbors, including Israel and the Arab states, are too important to sacrifice on the altar of Russian-Iranian friendship.” “除了关于‘多极世界秩序’的模糊套话之外，他们之间并没有共同的价值观，反而存在不少矛盾，”约翰霍普金斯大学冷战历史学家谢尔盖·拉德琴科说道。“普京已经表明了他们的矛盾所在：他与伊朗邻国——包括以色列和阿拉伯国家——的关系对他来说太重要了，不愿为俄伊友谊牺牲这些关系。” “He is a cynical manipulator interested only in his strategic interests, and if this means throwing Iran under the bus, then he is prepared to do this,” Mr. Radchenko added. “To be sure, the feeling is fully reciprocated in Tehran.” “他是个冷酷的操纵者，只关心自己的战略利益，必要时抛弃伊朗也在所不惜，”拉德琴科还表示。“可以肯定的是，德黑兰对此心知肚明。” Mr. Putin and President Trump spoke about the Israel-Iran war on June 14, and Mr. Putin offered to mediate. Afterward, Mr. Putin said publicly that Russia had helped Iran build a nuclear power plant and was assisting with two more reactors. 普京与特朗普于6月14日就以色列与伊朗的战争进行了交谈，普京提出愿意进行调解。随后，普京公开表示，俄罗斯曾帮助伊朗建造了一座核电站，并正在协助建设另外两个反应堆。 While he spoke of Russia’s partnership with Iran, he signaled a reluctance to commit to aiding the country in the war. 尽管他谈及俄罗斯与伊朗的伙伴关系，但他也暗示不愿意承诺在战争中援助伊朗。 Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with Mr. Putin in Moscow on June 23, a day after the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, but the Russian summary of the meeting had little beyond the usual expressions of diplomatic support. That day, Iran carried out a symbolic missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar and then agreed to a cease-fire with Israel and the United States. 6月23日，也就是美国空袭伊朗的第二天，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在莫斯科与普京会晤，但俄罗斯方面对会议纪要除了一些惯常的表示支持的外交辞令外，几乎没有更多实质内容。当天，伊朗对位于卡塔尔的美国军事基地进行了象征性导弹袭击，随后同意与以色列和美国达成停火协议。 China also watched from the stands as the crisis unfolded. 中国在这场危机爆发时也采取了观望的态度。 俄罗斯国家媒体发布的一张照片显示，美国袭击伊朗核设施次日，普京会见了伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇。 Mr. Xi said that all sides “should work to de-escalate the conflict.” And when Mr. Trump ordered the American strikes on Iran, China said it strongly condemned the attacks and accused the United States of violating the United Nations Charter. 习近平表示，各方“应努力实现冲突降级”。当特朗普下令对伊朗发动美国空袭时，中国强烈谴责了这次攻击，并指责美国违反了《联合国宪章》。 But like Russia, China did not send material support to Iran. Although China does sometimes take an official position on conflicts in the region, it also often tries to appear noncommittal in order to balance interests. For years, it has been building up its ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two rivals of Iran. Saudi Arabia, like Iran, is a big oil exporter to China. 但和俄罗斯一样，中国并未向伊朗提供实质性支持。尽管中国有时会对该地区的冲突表明官方立场，但它也常常试图保持模糊，以平衡各方利益。多年来，中国一直在加强与沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的关系，而这两个国家是伊朗的竞争对手。沙特阿拉伯和伊朗一样，是中国主要的石油出口国。 An extended regional war would jeopardize China’s oil imports from those countries, so it seeks to quell hostilities rather than stoke them. 一场持续的区域战争将危及中国从这些国家的石油进口，因此中国寻求平息敌对行动，而非助长冲突。 China’s aim of being a neutral broker in the Middle East became evident in March 2023, when it helped finalize a diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. 中国作为中东地区中立调解者的目标在2023年3月显现出来，当时它促成了伊朗与沙特阿拉伯之间的外交和解。 China also used that opportunity to develop closer ties with Iran’s partner in the region, Syria, ruled then by Bashar al-Assad. 中国也借此机会深化了与伊朗在该地区的合作伙伴——当时由巴沙尔·阿萨德统治的叙利亚的关系。 That was a period when China’s influence in the Middle East was at a peak, said Enrico Fardella, a professor at the University of Naples “L’Orientale” who has taught at Peking University and studies China’s foreign policy. Now, with Iran weakened by the war and Mr. Assad overthrown by rebels, China is treading carefully around the Iran-Israel conflict to see which governments and political groups or militias in the region emerge as the most powerful. 那是中国在中东影响力达到巅峰的时期，那不勒斯东方大学教授、曾在北京大学任教并研究中国外交政策的恩里科·法尔德拉说道。如今，随着伊朗因战争而实力受损，阿萨德被叛军推翻，中国在伊朗与以色列的冲突中正谨慎行事，观察该地区哪些政府、政治团体或民兵势力将成为最有影响力的力量。 “While Beijing has a vested interest in promoting a cease-fire and post-conflict stabilization, its current low-profile diplomacy suggests limited confidence in its ability to influence events,” Mr. Fardella said in a text message. “As in post-Assad Syria, China may once again adopt a wait-and-see strategy, carefully repositioning itself to salvage influence in a rapidly shifting post-conflict landscape.” “虽然北京有促进停火和战后稳定的既得利益，但其目前低调的外交态度表明，中国对自身影响局势的能力信心有限，”法尔德拉在短信中表示。“正如对阿萨德下台后的叙利亚一样，中国可能再次采取观望策略，谨慎调整立场，以便在迅速变化的战后局势中挽回影响力。” Chinese officials are also aware that Iran, like North Korea, is an isolated country and needs China, despite occasional ebbs in the relationship. 中国官员也清楚，尽管中伊关系偶有起伏，但伊朗和朝鲜一样，是一个孤立的国家，仍然需要中国。 On June 26, after Iran agreed to a cease-fire with Israel, Iran’s defense minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, made his first trip abroad since the war began — to the Chinese city of Qingdao for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Eurasian security group led by China and Russia. 6月26日，在伊朗同意与以色列停火后，伊朗国防部长阿齐兹·纳西尔扎德自战争爆发以来首次出访，前往中国青岛，参加由中国和俄罗斯主导的欧亚安全组织——上海合作组织的会议。 黄安伟(Edward Wong)报道全球事务、美国外交政策和国务院新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
KEITH BRADSHER2025年7月7日中国内蒙古的稀土与铁矿复合型矿山白云鄂博矿，摄于2011年7月。 Reuters Rare earth metals were an afterthought for most world leaders until China temporarily suspended most exports of them a couple of months ago. 直到几个月前中国暂时停止了大部分稀土出口，大多数世界领导人才惊觉这一资源的价值。 But for almost half a century, they have received attention from the very top of the Chinese government. 但在近半个世纪的时间里，稀土一直受到中国政府最高层的关注。 During his 27-year rule in China, Mao Zedong focused often on increasing how much iron and steel China produced, but seldom on its quality. The result was high production of weak iron and steel that could not meet the needs of the industry. 在毛泽东统治中国的27年间，他往往重视的是提高中国的钢铁产量，却很少关注其质量。结果是生产了大量质量低劣的钢铁，无法满足工业需求。 In the late 1940s, metallurgists in Britain and the United States had developed a fairly low-tech way to improve the quality of ductile iron, which is widely used for pipelines, car parts and other applications. The secret? Add a dash of the rare earth cerium to the metal while it is still molten. It was one of the early industrial uses of rare earths. And unlike most kinds of rare earths, cerium was fairly easy to chemically separate from ore. 20世纪40年代末，英国和美国的冶金学家研发出了一种技术含量相当低的方法来提高球墨铸铁的质量，这种材料广泛用于管道、汽车零件和其他产品。个中秘诀何在？在金属仍处于熔融状态时加入少量的稀土元素铈。这是稀土金属在工业上的早期应用之一。而且与大多数稀土金属不同的是，铈从矿石中进行化学分离相对容易。 When Deng Xiaoping emerged as China’s paramount leader in 1978, he moved quickly to fix the country’s iron and steel industry. Mr. Deng named a top technocrat, Fang Yi, as a vice premier and also as the director of the powerful State Science and Technology Commission. 1978年成为中国的最高领导人后，邓小平迅速着手整顿钢铁工业。他任命了技术专家型官员方毅担任副总理，并兼任掌握重权的国家科学技术委员会主任。 1978年，方毅成为分管科技工作的副总理后，迅即决策开发白云鄂博矿的稀土资源。 Sven Simon/United Archives, via Getty Images Mr. Fang immediately took top geologists and scientists to Baotou, a city in China’s Inner Mongolia that had vast steel mills and the country’s largest iron ore mine nearby. Baotou had already made much of the iron and steel for China’s tanks and artillery under Mao, but Mr. Fang’s team made an important decision to extract more than iron from the mine. 方毅立即带领中国最好的地质学家和科学家前往包头，这座位于内蒙古的城市不仅拥有巨大的钢铁厂，附近还有全国最大的铁矿。在毛泽东时代，包头为中国的坦克和大炮生产了大量钢铁，但方毅团队做出了一项重要决定，不仅要从这座矿提取铁，还要提取其他矿物质。 The city’s iron ore deposit was laced with large quantities of so-called light rare earths. These included not just cerium, for ductile iron and for glass manufacturing, but also lanthanum, used in refining oil. 这座城市的铁矿石矿床中富含大量的所谓轻稀土。除了用于球墨铸铁和玻璃制造的铈，还包括石油精炼所需的镧。 The iron ore deposit also held medium rare earths, like samarium. The United States had started using samarium in the 1970s to make the heat-resistant magnets needed for electric motors inside supersonic fighter jets and missiles. 矿床中还蕴藏着钐等中稀土。美国在70年代已将其用于制造超音速战机和导弹电机必需的耐高温磁体。 “Rare earths have important application value in steel, ductile iron, glass and ceramics, military industry, electronics and new materials,” Mr. Fang declared during his visit to Baotou in 1978, according to an exhibit at the city’s museum. 在包头博物馆陈列的文献中可以看到，方毅在1978年视察包头时曾断言，“稀土在钢、球墨铸铁、玻璃陶瓷、军工、电子和新材料等方面有重要的应用价值。” At the time, Sino-American relations were improving. Soon after his Baotou visit, Mr. Fang took top Chinese engineers to visit America’s most advanced factories, including Lockheed Martin and McDonnell Douglas assembly plants near Los Angeles. 当时正值中美关系改善。方毅结束包头考察后不久，带领中国的顶尖工程师团队造访美国最先进的工厂，包括洛克希德·马丁公司和麦道飞机在洛杉矶附近的组装厂。 北京中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所博物馆陈列的白云鄂博矿稀土矿物标本，摄于2025年5月。 Rare earth metals are tightly bound together in nature. Prying them apart, particularly the heavier rare earths, requires many rounds of chemical processes and huge quantities of acid. 自然界中稀土金属紧密共生，尤其是重稀土元素的萃取分离需经多道化学工序，并消耗大量的酸。 During the 1950s and 1960s, the United States and the Soviet Union had each developed similar ways to separate rare earths. But their techniques were costly, requiring stainless steel vats and piping as well as expensive nitric acid. 在上世纪50、60年代，美国和苏联都研发出了类似的分离工艺。但技术成本高昂，不仅需配置不锈钢分离槽及管道系统，更依赖昂贵的硝酸制剂。 China ordered government research institutes to devise a cheaper approach, said Constantine Karayannopoulos, a chemical engineer and former chief executive of several of the largest North American rare earth companies. The Chinese engineers figured out how to separate rare earths using inexpensive plastic and hydrochloric acid instead. 曾在北美几家最大的稀土企业担任CEO的化学工程师康斯坦丁·卡拉扬诺普洛斯透露，中国政府当时指令科研机构研发低成本方案。中国工程师找到了使用廉价塑料和盐酸分离稀土的工艺。 The cost advantage, together with weak enforcement of environmental standards, allowed China’s rare earth refineries to undercut competitors in the West. Facing increasingly stiff environmental regulations, almost all of the West’s refineries closed. 凭借成本优势与宽松的环境监管，中国的稀土精炼厂实现了对西方竞争对手的价格碾压。面对日益严格的环境法规，西方的精炼厂几乎全部关停。 Separately, China’s geologists discovered that their country held nearly half the world’s deposits of rare earths, including rich deposits of heavy rare earths in south-central China, valuable for magnets in cars as well as for medical imaging and other applications. 与此同时，中国的地质学家发现，他们的国家拥有全球近一半的稀土储量，包括中南部地区丰富的重稀土资源，这种资源对用于汽车、医疗成像及其他领域的磁体都极具价值。 江西的一处稀土矿作业现场，摄于2012年3月。 In the 1990s and 2000s, Chinese refinery engineers mastered the task of prying apart heavy rare earths. That gave China an almost total monopoly on heavy rare earth production. 20世纪90年代至新世纪初，中国的精炼工程师成功攻克了重稀土分离技术。这使得中国在重稀土生产上几乎形成了完全垄断。 “The Middle East has oil,” Mr. Deng said in 1992. “China has rare earths.” 邓小平在1992年曾表示，“中东有石油，中国有稀土。” By then, he and Mr. Fang had already trained the next leader to guide the country’s rare earth industry: a geologist named Wen Jiabao. He had earned a master’s degree in rare earth sciences in the late 1960s at the Beijing Institute of Geology, when most of the rest of China was paralyzed during the upheaval of the Cultural Revolution. 那时，他和方毅早已经培养出下一位将引领中国稀土产业发展的领导人——一位名叫温家宝的地质学家。上世纪60年代末，温家宝在北京地质学院获得了稀土科学的硕士学位，当时中国大部分地区正因文化大革命的动荡而陷入瘫痪。 Mr. Wen went on to become a vice premier in 1998 and then China’s premier from 2003 to 2013. During a visit to Europe in 2010, he declared that little happened on rare earth policy in China without his personal involvement. 温家宝于1998年出任副总理，2003年至2013年担任总理。在2010年访欧期间，他宣称，中国的稀土政策几乎无一不是在他的直接参与下制定的。 Li You对本文有研究贡献。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID PIERSON, BERRY WANG2025年7月7日美国众议院通过了一项涵盖范围广泛的法案，旨在延长减税政策并削减社会保障项目。国会预算办公室报告称，这项措施将导致美国国债在未来十年内增加至少3.4万亿美元。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times As one of the largest holders of U.S. debt for the last two decades, China has not shied away from lecturing the United States about its financial behavior. 作为过去20年美国债务的最大持有国之一，中国从不回避对美国财政行为的批评。 Like a parent scolding a child for racking up credit card bills, China needled Washington to protect its assets during the 2013 debt ceiling impasse and blamed Americans for setting off the 2008 global financial crisis with their profligate spending. 就像父母训斥孩子透支信用卡一样，中国在2013年美国债务上限僵局期间向华盛顿施压，要求其保护中国资产；2008年全球金融危机后，中国更是直指美国人的挥霍无度是罪魁祸首。 But as American lawmakers debated, and ultimately passed, a giant domestic bill championed by President Trump that is projected to add more than $3 trillion to the federal debt by 2034, China has remained largely silent despite the potential long-term risk it poses to its holdings. 但当美国国会议员就一项由特朗普总统支持、预计到2034年将使联邦债务激增逾3万亿美元的庞大国内法案进行辩论并最终通过时，中国却基本上不置一词——尽管该法案可能对中国持有的美国资产构成长期风险。 China’s main concerns about its holdings has long been over the dollar’s value and whether the United States will fail to pay its obligations, said Yasheng Huang, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 麻省理工学院的经济学家黄亚生表示，中国对持有美债的主要担忧长期以来一直集中在美元的价值，以及美国是否会违约这两个层面。 “These two concerns are far more material today,” he said. “The dollar has already depreciated, dragging down the Chinese holdings. In terms of the other concern, I personally do not trust this administration to uphold rule of law and debt obligations.” “这两个担忧如今都更加现实，”他说。“美元持续贬值已经拖累中国持债价值。至于另一个担忧，我个人不信任本届政府会恪守法治原则与债务义务。” In covering the debate, Chinese state media have emphasized how divisive the bill has been and the seeming futility of the American democratic process to reflect popular will. Reports described the debates as a “political circus,” while Chinese pundits said the vote highlighted “increasing polarization” in the United States. 中国官方媒体在报道国会辩论时强调了该法案的争议性，以及美国民主制度在体现民意方面似乎失效。报道将辩论描述为一场“政治马戏”，中国的评论人士则称投票突显了美国“日益加剧的两极分化”。 But Chinese officials have not yet publicly criticized the Trump administration and could be focused on other considerations. 但中国官员尚未公开批评特朗普政府，沉默背后可能存在其他考量。 Averting a Trade War Is a Priority 避免贸易战是优先事项 China probably sees no reason to antagonize Mr. Trump by publicly criticizing his bill when it is in a shaky truce with his administration in a trade war that had earlier seen both sides impose sky-high tariffs on each other’s goods. 在双方贸易战的脆弱休战状态下，中国可能认为没有必要通过公开批评该法案来激怒特朗普，此前双方曾互征高额关税。 The two sides have agreed to lift certain countermeasures, and keep working toward a deal. Momentum may even be building toward a meeting between Mr. Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. 双方已同意取消部分对抗性措施，并继续朝达成协议努力。双方甚至可能正在为特朗普与中国最高领导人习近平的会晤创造条件。 Beijing, which is trying to revive economic growth, can ill afford an extended trade war. Concerns over its treasury holdings are not top of mind. More pressing are the tariffs and efforts by the Trump administration to persuade other countries to restrict their own trade with China. 北京正试图重振经济增长，难以承受一场旷日持久的贸易战。相比之下，国债持有问题并不是当务之急。更紧迫的是关税问题，以及特朗普政府试图说服其他国家限制对华贸易的努力。 “China is still trying to maintain a fragile trade truce with the United States,” said Joe Mazur, an analyst at Trivium, a research firm. “Criticizing Trump’s signature piece of legislation could anger him and torpedo recent diplomatic understandings.” “中国仍在努力维持与美国之间脆弱的贸易停火，”研究公司Trivium的分析师乔·马祖尔表示。“批评特朗普的标志性立法可能会激怒他，破坏近期达成的外交共识。” Why Interrupt Your Enemy’s Mistake? 为什么要阻止敌人犯错呢？ From China’s perspective, rather than fuel American economic growth, the measure could push Washington closer to a fiscal cliff and undermine its ability to compete with Beijing. 从中国的角度来看，该法案非但不会推动美国经济增长，还可能把华盛顿推向财政悬崖，削弱其与北京竞争的能力。 “The chances of Trump’s success are at best uncertain,” said Shen Dingli, a scholar of international relations in Shanghai. Instead, the measure “could indirectly help make China great again” by weakening the United States, he said. “特朗普成功的几率充其量也只能说是不确定，”上海的国际关系学者沈丁立表示。他还表示，该法案通过削弱美国实力，“可能会间接帮助中国再次强大”。 Crises and chaos in the United States feed into one of Mr. Xi’s primary assertions about the state of the world, that the East is rising and the West is declining. China has highlighted the Trump administration’s alienation of U.S. allies and partners and disregard for global norms. 美国的危机与混乱正好印证了习近平对当前世界局势的核心判断——东升西降。中国强调特朗普政府疏远美国盟友和伙伴，并无视全球规范。 On social media, one popular hashtag read: “Big, Beautiful Bill will make 17 million people lose their health insurance.” Internet commenters also cheered on Elon Musk, who has described the bill as “insane.” 在社交媒体上，一个热门标签写道：“大而美法案将让1700万人失去医保”。网民们也为埃隆·马斯克的言论欢呼，他称该法案“疯狂”。 In contrast, Chinese analysts said, China has raised its debt levels, in part, to build infrastructure and to loan money to developing countries — spending that is geared toward expanding China’s influence. 相比之下，中国分析人士表示，中国提高债务水平部分是用于建设基础设施和向发展中国家贷款——这些支出旨在扩大中国的影响力。 China is also struggling with a growing mountain of debt because of borrowing by local governments, their investment vehicles and real estate developers. 中国同样也在应对不断增长的债务问题，这主要来自地方政府、融资平台以及房地产开发商的借贷。 Yao Yang, an economist at Peking University, was skeptical that China stood to gain from any disruption caused by Mr. Trump’s bill. He said the United States could continue to borrow for years to come as long as it remained the world’s biggest consumer market. 北京大学的经济学家姚洋对中国是否会因特朗普的法案带来的混乱而受益表示怀疑。他表示，只要美国仍是世界上最大的消费市场，就可以继续借贷多年。 “America’s financial dominance can’t be easily overturned, and the same goes for the dollar’s supremacy,” he said. “美国的金融霸主地位也不是随意就可以被替代的。那连带的美元的霸主地位，也不是随意可以替代掉，”他说。 China Is Less Exposed to U.S. Debt 中国受美国债务的影响较小 Beijing has long complained that Washington has printed more money to serve its domestic needs without considering how it devalues the dollar, and, by extension, foreign countries’ holdings of U.S. assets. 北京长期诟病华盛顿滥发货币满足国内需求，却无视美元贬值，以及因此带来的海外持有美债资产的缩水。 But it has also been gradually reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, from a peak of $1.3 trillion more than a decade ago, to about $750 billion now, investing instead in other assets like gold. 但中国也在逐步减持美债——从十多年前1.3万亿美元的峰值降至目前的约7500亿美元，转而投资于黄金等其他资产。 China is also invested in weakening what it calls the U.S. dollar’s hegemony as the world’s leading currency for trade. 中国也致力于削弱其所谓的“美元霸权”，即美元作为世界主要贸易货币的地位。 That power fuels the world’s dependency on American consumers, making major exporting nations like China “more submissive” to the United States because of the threats of tariffs, said Henry Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing. 位于北京的全球化智库理事长王辉耀表示，美元的这一地位加剧了世界对美国消费者的依赖，使得中国这样的主要出口国在面对关税威胁时”更为被动”。 “The United States is using the greenback and its large deficit financing to sustain its global power,” he said. “美国正在利用美元和巨额赤字融资来维持其全球霸权，”他说。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
CHRIS CAMERON2025年7月7日周五晚间，特朗普在“空军一号”上向媒体发表讲话。 Michael A. McCoy for The New York Times President Trump late Friday said that the United States “pretty much has a deal” for an American company to acquire the U.S. branch of TikTok, adding that he intended to restart talks next week with China to approve the deal. 特朗普总统周五晚间表示，美国“已基本达成协议”，让一家本土公司收购TikTok的美国业务，并称他打算下周与中国重启谈判，以批准该协议。 “We’re going to start Monday or Tuesday talking to China,” Mr. Trump told reporters traveling on Air Force One on Friday night as it headed to Bedminster, N.J. “We think we probably have to get it approved by China. Not definitely, but probably.” “我们将在周一或周二开始与中国谈判，”特朗普在周五晚间搭乘“空军一号”前往新泽西州贝德明斯特时对随行记者表示。“我们认为我们可能需要中国批准。不一定，但可能是这样。” He added, “I think the deal is good for China, and it’s good for us. It’s money, it’s a lot of money.” 他补充说：“我认为这笔交易对中国有利，对我们也有利。这是钱，是一大笔钱。” Mr. Trump did not say who the potential buyer was. The president said earlier in the week that he had found a buyer for the U.S. branch of TikTok, the popular Chinese-owned video app that faces a ban adopted by Congress over national security concerns. A 2024 law required that the app effectively be banned in the United States unless its parent company, ByteDance, sold it to a non-Chinese company. Congress was concerned that sensitive user data could end up in the hands of the Chinese government. 特朗普没有透露潜在收购方的身份。总统在本周早些时候曾表示，他已经为TikTok的美国业务找到了买家。TikTok是一款广受欢迎的中资视频应用，目前正面临美国国会因国家安全担忧而施加的禁令。一项2024年生效的法律规定，除非母公司字节跳动将TikTok出售给非中国公司，否则该应用将在美国被禁止。国会担心敏感的用户数据可能会落入中国政府手中。 It was not clear if the deal would comply with some of the requirements Congress adopted for a sale of TikTok, particularly if ByteDance chose not to share the app’s algorithm with the U.S. buyers. Private equity firms have been hesitant to invest in a deal without some form of indemnification. 目前尚不清楚这笔交易是否符合国会为TikTok出售设定的一些条件，尤其是在字节跳动拒绝向美国收购方提供算法的情况下。私募股权公司因为缺乏某种形式的担保而对该交易犹豫不决。 Mr. Trump has declined to enforce the law banning the app, which was passed by large bipartisan majorities and unanimously upheld by the Supreme Court. Shortly after being sworn in, Mr. Trump issued an executive order directing the Justice Department to suspend enforcement of the TikTok ban and has since repeatedly extended it. Pam Bondi, the attorney general, has told tech companies that Mr. Trump has the constitutional power to effectively set aside laws. 特朗普拒绝执行禁止该应用的法案。该法案在国会获得了两党广泛支持，在最高法院也得到了一致支持。在宣誓就任总统后不久，特朗普发布行政命令指示司法部暂停执行对TikTok的禁令，此后还多次延长暂停令。司法部长帕姆·邦迪已告知科技公司，特朗普具有宪法赋予的权力，可以有效搁置法律的执行。 Chris Cameron是《纽约时报》记者，报道华盛顿地区，主要关注突发新闻和特朗普政府新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
托马斯·弗里德曼2025年7月4日得克萨斯州的太阳能电池板，该州大幅提升了太阳能发电能力。 Mason Trinca for The New York Times Can you hear it — that loud roar coming from the East? It’s the sound of 1.4 billion Chinese laughing at us. 你听到从东方传来的巨响吗？那是14亿中国人嘲笑我们的声音。 The Chinese simply can’t believe their luck: that at the dawn of the electricity-guzzling era of artificial intelligence, the U.S. president and his party have decided to engage in one of the greatest acts of strategic self-harm imaginable. They have passed a giant bill that, among other craziness, deliberately undermines America’s ability to generate electricity through renewables — solar, battery and wind power in particular. 中国人简直不敢相信自己的运气：在耗电的人工智能时代即将到来之际，美国总统和他的政党堪称能想象到的最严重的战略自残了。他们通过的一项庞大的法案有着各种疯狂的内容，其中包括故意破坏美国通过可再生能源发电的能力，尤其是太阳能、电池和风能。 And why? Because they view those as “liberal” energy sources, even though today they are the quickest and cheapest ways to boost our electricity grid to meet the explosion of demand from A.I. data centers. 为什么？因为他们认为这些是“自由派”能源，尽管如今这些能源是促进我们的电网发展以满足人工智能数据中心激增需求的最快捷、最廉价的方式。 It is exactly the opposite of what China is doing. Indeed, Beijing may have to make July 4 its own national holiday going forward: American Electricity Dependence Day.You cannot make this up: Even Saudi Arabia is doubling down on solar power to meet the needs of the A.I. data centers it wants to recruit from the West, while Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” actually does just the opposite. It quickly phases out tax credits enjoyed by utility-scale solar and wind — as well as electric vehicle tax credits. This virtually guarantees that China will own the future of solar energy, wind power and electric cars and trucks, as well as autonomous vehicles. 这与中国的做法恰恰相反。事实上，北京可能要把7月4日定为自己的全国性节日才行——美国电力依赖日。这真是编都编不出的情节：就连沙特阿拉伯也在加倍投资太阳能，以满足其想从西方引进的人工智能数据中心的需求，而特朗普“大而美法案”实际上恰恰相反。该法案将迅速逐步取消公用事业规模的太阳能和风能享有的税收抵免，以及电动汽车的税收抵免。这几乎保证了中国将拥有太阳能、风能、电动汽车和卡车以及自动驾驶汽车的未来。 Thankfully, Trump and friends did keep until 2036 a major Biden-era tax credit for companies that build other emissions-free technologies like nuclear reactors, hydroelectric dams, geothermal plants and battery storage. The problem is that it can take up to 10 years to build a nuclear plant in America, and, as The Times reported, the bill added “complex restrictions” to the battery credits “that bar recipients from having ties to ‘prohibited foreign entities’ like China.’’ As a result, “some worry that the restrictions are so complicated that the credits could end up being unusable for many projects.” 值得庆幸的是，特朗普和他的朋友们确实将拜登时代的一项主要税收抵免政策保留到了2036年，该政策适用于建造其他零排放技术的公司，比如核反应堆、水电站、地热发电厂和电池储能系统。问题在于，在美国建造一座核电站可能需要长达10年的时间，而且，正如《纽约时报》报道的那样，该法案给电池抵免额度增加了“复杂的限制”，“禁止接受者与中国等‘被禁止的外国实体’有联系”。因此，“一些人担心，这些限制太过复杂，最终可能会导致很多项目无法使用抵免。” In sum, this dog’s breakfast of a bill — rushed through without a single congressional hearing with independent energy experts or even one scientist — is sure to put at risk billions of dollars of investments in renewable energy, mostly in Republican states, and potentially kill the jobs of tens of thousands of U.S. workers. By the way, the bill also bans for 10 years a first-ever fee on excess methane emissions from oil and gas production, a key driver of global warming. 总而言之，这个乱七八糟的法案没有举行任何独立能源专家——甚至没有一位科学家——的听证会就匆匆通过了，肯定会危及可再生能源领域数十亿美元的投资（其中大部分是在共和党控制的州），并有可能使上万美国工人失去工作。顺便说一下，该法案还首次禁止对石油和天然气生产过程中排放的过量甲烷征收费用，为期10年，甲烷是全球变暖的主要驱动因素。 So, in one fell swoop, this bill will make your home hotter, your air-conditioning bill higher, your clean energy job scarcer, America’s auto industry weaker and China happier. How does that make sense? 因此，这一法案将使你的家更热，空调费用更高，清洁能源产业岗位更少，让美国汽车工业更弱，让中国更开心。这怎么说得通呢？ It doesn’t. And the person in America who knows that best is actually Elon Musk. It is really sad to me that Musk, who is without question one of America’s greatest manufacturing innovators — having started globally leading companies making electric vehicles, renewable rockets, battery storage and telecommunications satellites — has discredited himself with so many voters because of his dalliance with Trump and because of his Department of Government Efficiency’s capricious cuts to the government work force. Because of that, many will not understand the vital truth that Musk has been shouting to his fellow Americans: Trump’s bill is “utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.” 说不通。在美国，最了解这一点的人实际上是埃隆·马斯克。毫无疑问，马斯克是美国最伟大的制造业创新者之一，他创立了全球领先的公司，制造电动汽车、可回收火箭、电池存储和通讯卫星，但由于他与特朗普的暧昧关系，以及他的政府效率部反复无常地裁撤政府工作人员，他在这么多选民心目中失去了信誉，这让我感到非常难过。正因为如此，许多人不会理解马斯克一直在向他的美国同胞大声疾呼的一个至关重要的事实：特朗普的法案“完全是疯狂和具有破坏性的。它给过去的行业提供了援助，却严重损害了未来的行业。” This is not complicated and this is what China knows: There has never been a more intimate connection than there is now between a nation’s ability to generate huge amounts of electricity at affordable prices (and in the cleanest way possible) and its ability to develop A.I. engines that consume huge amounts of electricity as they learn and generate answers that could give us the tools we need to cure diseases, discover new materials and even produce the holy grail of cheap, clean, climate-saving fusion energy. 道理并不复杂，中国就很清楚：一个国家以可承受的价格（并以最清洁的方式）生产大量电力的能力，与其开发人工智能引擎的能力之间的联系从来没有像现在这样紧密。在学习和产生答案的过程中，人工智能引擎会消耗大量电力，而这些答案可以为我们提供治疗疾病、发现新材料，甚至廉价、清洁、拯救气候的核聚变能源这一圣杯所需的工具。 To put it differently, there has never been a more intimate connection between the amount of cheap, clean electricity a nation can generate for A.I. models and its future economic and military might. 换句话说，一个国家为人工智能模型生产的廉价、清洁电力的数量，与这个国家未来的经济和军事实力之间，从未有过如此密切的联系。 That is why Musk and many others find it so “insane and destructive” that Trump and his G.O.P. cult have rejected an energy policy of “all of the above as clean as possible as fast as possible” — oil, natural gas, coal, wind, hydro, nuclear, solar, geothermal, hydrogen — that is always working to phase out the dirtiest for the cleanest, the way China often has. Instead, Trump has chosen instead to kneecap America’s renewable energy industry the way China has not. The president has even called clean energy tax credits a “scam,” saying he’d rather spend the money anywhere else. This is industrial-scale foolishness. 正因为如此，马斯克和其他许多人认为，特朗普和他的共和党狂热信徒们的能源政策如此“疯狂和具有破坏性”，特朗普等人拒绝了一项“以尽可能快的速度尽可能清洁地使用所有能源”（包括石油、天然气、煤炭、风能、水力、核能、太阳能、地热、氢）的能源政策，该政策一直在努力淘汰最脏的能源，让最清洁的能源取而代之，就像中国经常做的那样。特朗普反其道而行之，选择去削弱美国的可再生能源产业。总统甚至称清洁能源税收抵免为“骗局”，说他宁愿把钱花在其他地方。这真是蠢到天上去了。 I was struck by a quote from an energy expert in The Wall Street Journal the other day. “The big-picture outlook for energy is we are going to be less competitive because of this law,” said Nick Nigro of Atlas Public Policy. “Ten years from now we could look back on this moment as the time in which the U.S. pulled back and essentially lost the transition to clean energy.” 前几天，《华尔街日报》上一位能源专家的话让我吃了一惊。“能源行业的整体前景是，由于这项法律，我们的竞争力将下降，”阿特拉斯公共政策公司的尼克·尼格罗表示。“十年后，当我们回顾这一时刻时，就会发现美国在向清洁能源转型的过程中后退了，基本上是失败了。” Alas, truth be told, Democratic Party progressives helped to make Trump and his party this foolish on energy with their own crazy fantasies. Too many of them behaved as if we could go cold turkey from a fossil fuel economy to a clean and green one, without scaling cleaner fuels to bridge the transition, like natural gas and nuclear, and without loosening permitting standards for more transmission lines to get clean power from the middle of the desert to the cities where it is needed. 唉，说实话，特朗普及其政党在能源方面如此愚蠢，也跟民主党进步派自己不着调的空想有关。进步人士中有太多人表现得好像我们可以突然从化石燃料经济转变为清洁和绿色经济，而不需要推广天然气和核能等更清洁的燃料来过渡，也不放松允许更多输电线路的标准，将清洁电力从沙漠中部输送到需要电力的城市。 Few Americans understand how far ahead of us China already is in this realm and moving farther ahead, and faster, every day. 很少有美国人了解，中国在这个领域已经领先我们很多，而且每天都在以更快的速度向前迈进。 Consider this snapshot: In 2000 China produced just over 1,300 terawatt hours of electricity while the U.S. produced nearly 3,800 (a terawatt is equal to a million megawatts). Fast forward to today, China produces over 10,000 terawatt hours while the U.S., since 2000, has added only 500 — an increase of only 13 percent in two and a half decades. Much of China’s electricity growth originally came from expanded coal-fired generation, but in recent years it has been driven by expanding hydro, solar, wind and battery sources, which are easier, cheaper and quicker to build and also help the climate. 看看这个简述：2000年，中国的发电量刚刚超过1300太瓦时，而美国的发电量接近3800太瓦时（1太瓦等于100万兆瓦）。时至今日，中国的发电量超过10000太瓦时，而美国自2000年以来只增加了500太瓦时，在25年里只增加了13%。中国电力的增长最初主要来自燃煤发电的扩张，但近年来则是由水力、太阳能、风能和电池能源的扩大所推动的，这些能源的建设更容易、更便宜、更快捷，还有助于气候保护。 As a recent article from Shanghai in the The Financial Times put it: “China is on its way to becoming the world’s first ‘electrostate,’ with a growing share of its energy coming from electricity and an economy increasingly driven by clean technologies. It offers China a strategic buffer from trade decoupling and rising geopolitical tensions with the U.S.” 正如《金融时报》最近一篇发自上海的文章所言：“中国正在成为世界上第一个‘电力化国家’，电力在能源中所占的比重越来越大，经济越来越多地由清洁技术驱动。它为中国提供了一个战略缓冲，使其免受贸易脱钩和与美国地缘政治紧张局势加剧的影响。” As for Trump’s goal of making America globally energy dominant during his term of office, his bill just made that impossible. There is no path to energy dominance in the next five years without renewables. 特朗普的目标是在他的任期内让美国在全球能源领域占据主导地位，但他的法案让这一目标不可能实现。如果没有可再生能源，就无法在未来五年占据能源主导地位。 Let’s say you want to generate additional electricity for more data centers just through natural gas today. Even if you have an abundance of gas, as America does, you need more giant turbines to convert the gas to electricity. If you ask the major manufacturers of those turbines — GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power — they will likely tell you that they will be very happy to deliver you one, but you will be lucky to have it installed by 2030. That is how long their backlogs are. And there is no telling what that turbine will cost with all of Trump’s new steel and aluminum tariffs. 假设你今天决定只用天然气来产生额外的电力，驱动更多的数据中心。即使像美国这样拥有丰富的天然气的国家，也需要更多的巨型涡轮机来将天然气转化为电能。如果你问这些涡轮机的主要制造商——通用Vernova、西门子能源和三菱电力——他们很可能会告诉你，他们很乐意为你提供一台涡轮机，但能在2030年之前安装好就算很不错了。他们的订单积压就有这么多。在特朗普新的钢铝关税下，天知道这样的涡轮机成本是多少。 By contrast, you can build and put online a new solar farm with battery storage in Texas in just 18 months. 相比之下，你可以花18个月的时间，在得克萨斯州建造一个新的太阳能发电厂，并将其投入使用。 “During the past quarter, Texas took the lead in clean power installations, adding an impressive 2,596 MW of new utility-scale solar, wind and storage capacity,” reads an October research report from Texas A&M, referring to megawatts of power. “This milestone marks the first time Texas has surpassed California to become the top solar state in the nation.’” “在过去的一个季度里，得克萨斯州在清洁能源安装方面处于领先，新增公用事业规模的太阳能、风能和储能装机容量达到了了不起的2596兆瓦，”得克萨斯农工大学10月份的一份研究报告写道。“这一里程碑标志着得克萨斯州首次超过加利福尼亚州，成为美国最大的太阳能州。” A Texas energy expert, Doug Lewin, posted last week that the Texas grid, known as ERCOT, recently reported that the state had added 10,000 megawatts of power in just the last year — most of it from supercheap solar power with battery storage, so energy can be distributed at night when the sun is not shining. As a result, Texas has seen a drop in brownouts on its grid because of more renewables combined with bigger storage batteries. Texas can still deploy solar-plus-batteries in the future, but now the electricity will cost consumers a lot more thanks to the Trump bill. 得克萨斯州能源专家道格·勒温上周发布消息称，该州电网最近报告称，仅去年一年就增加了1万兆瓦的电力——其中大部分来自超廉价的太阳能发电，并配有电池储能装置，这样就可以在夜间阳光不充足时分配能源。因此，由于更多的可再生能源与更大的储能电池相结合，得克萨斯州电网的限电现象有所减少。得州未来仍然可以部署太阳能加电池，但现在，由于特朗普的法案，消费者的用电成本将大大增加。 If that higher monthly electricity bill bothers you, call Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He assuredly knows better, but like every other sycophant in Trump’s cabinet he seems to have just told the boss what he wanted to hear. As Wright must know, solar energy plus storage batteries made up 81 percent of the new electricity capacity added in the U.S. in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Now Trump’s idiotic bill will slash that amount. 如果每月电费支出增加令你烦恼，请致电能源部长克里斯·赖特。他当然更清楚这些情况，但就像特朗普内阁中的其他阿谀奉承者一样，他似乎只是对老板说了老板想听的话。赖特一定知道，根据美国能源情报署的数据，2024年美国新增电力容量中，太阳能和储能电池占81%。现在特朗普的愚蠢法案将削减这一份额。 The result for Americans? The research firm Energy Innovation, whose peer-reviewed energy modeling is widely respected, projects that Trump’s effort to diminish America’s renewable energy industry will cause wholesale electric power prices to increase roughly 50 percent by 2035, and that cumulative annual consumer energy costs will increase more than $16 billion by 2030. It also projects that some 830,000 renewable energy jobs will be lost or not created by 2030. 美国人会得到什么样的结果呢？研究公司能源创新拥有广受推崇的同行评议能源模型，该公司预测，特朗普削弱美国可再生能源产业的举措，将导致到2035年批发电价上涨约50%，到2030年，消费者每年的累计能源成本将增加逾160亿美元。报告还预测，到2030年将失去或无法创造约83万个可再生能源工作岗位。 For all of these reasons, I am certain there are only two political parties in the world today cheering the passage of this bill: Trump’s Republican Party and the Chinese Communist Party — because nothing is more destined to make China great again than Trump’s “big, beautiful, America surrenders the future of electricity to Beijing” bill. 基于所有这些原因，我确信今天世界上只有两个政党为这项法案的通过欢呼：特朗普的共和党和中国共产党——因为没有什么比特朗普的“把电力未来拱手让给北京的大而美”法案更加注定能让中国再次伟大了。 托马斯·L·弗里德曼(Thomas L. Friedman)是外交事务方面的专栏作者。他1981年加入时报，曾三次获得普利策奖。他著有七本书，包括赢得国家图书奖的《从贝鲁特到耶路撒冷》(From Beirut to Jerusalem)。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MICHAEL GOLD, ROBERT JIMISON, MEGAN MINEIRO2025年7月4日 The House on Thursday narrowly passed a sweeping bill to extend tax cuts and slash social safety net programs, capping Republicans’ chaotic monthslong slog to overcome deep rifts within their party and deliver President Trump’s domestic agenda. 周四，众议院以微弱多数通过了一项旨在延长减税政策并大幅削减社会保障项目的全面法案。经过数月混乱博弈，共和党终于克服党内深刻分歧，兑现了特朗普总统的国内议程。 The final vote, 218 to 214, was mostly along party lines and came after Speaker Mike Johnson spent a frenzied day and night toiling to quell resistance in his ranks that threatened until the very end to derail the president’s marquee legislation. With all but two Republicans in favor and Democrats uniformly opposed, the action cleared the bill for Mr. Trump’s signature, meeting the July 4 deadline he had demanded. 最终投票结果是218票对214票，基本按党派划线，此前议长迈克·约翰逊度过了繁忙的一天一夜，努力平息党内阻力，这些阻力直到最后一刻都可能使总统的这项标志性立法泡汤。除了两人外的所有共和党人都投了赞成票，民主党人则一致反对，法案赶在特朗普要求的7月4日截止期限前完成了送交总统签署的流程。 The legislation extends tax cuts enacted in 2017 that had been scheduled to expire at the end of the year, while adding new ones Mr. Trump promised during this campaign, on some tips and overtime pay, at a total cost of $4.5 trillion. It also increases funding for defense and border security and cuts nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid, with more reductions to food assistance for the poor and other government aid. And it phases out clean-energy tax credits passed under former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. that Mr. Trump and conservative Republicans have long decried. 这项立法延长了2017年颁布、原定于年底到期的减税措施，同时新增特朗普在竞选期间承诺的针对某些小费和加班工资的减税措施，总成本达4.5万亿美元。法案还增加了国防和边境安全拨款，同时削减了近1万亿美元的医疗补助，并进一步缩减贫困人口食品救济等政府援助。此外，它还将逐步取消前总统拜登任内通过的清洁能源税收抵免，该政策长期遭特朗普和保守派共和党人抨击。 Also included is a $5 trillion increase in the debt limit, a measure that Republicans are typically unwilling to support but that was necessary to avert a federal default later this year. 法案中还包括将债务上限提高5万亿美元，尽管共和党通常不愿支持此类措施，但这对于避免今年晚些时候联邦政府违约是必要的。 The bill’s final passage was a major victory for congressional Republicans and Mr. Trump, who is expected to swiftly sign what he has frequently referred to as his “big, beautiful bill.” G.O.P. lawmakers who had feuded bitterly over the legislation united almost unanimously behind it, fearing the political consequences of allowing a tax increase and of crossing a president who demands unflagging loyalty and was pressuring them to fall into line. 对于国会共和党人和特朗普来说，该法案的最终通过是一次重大胜利，预计他将迅速签署这项其所谓“大而美法案”。共和党议员们曾就这项立法发生激烈争执，但最终几乎一致支持它，唯恐允许增税和违抗总统带来的政治后果——他要求坚定的忠诚，并向他们施压，要求他们俯首听命。 “If you’re for a secure border, safer communities and a strong military, this bill is for you,” Mr. Johnson said, extolling the bill ahead of the final vote. “If you’re for common-sense fiscal responsibility and reducing the deficit, this bill is for you. If you’re for fairer and lower taxes, bigger paychecks, affordable gas and groceries and restoring dignity to hard work, this is the bill for you.” “如果你支持边境安全、社区安定和强大军队，这项法案就是为你准备的，”约翰逊在最终投票前为法案造势时说道。“如果你秉持财政责任常识并致力削减赤字，这项法案就是为你准备的。如果你追求更公平的低税率、更丰厚的薪水、可负担的汽油和食品价格，以及重拾勤劳的尊严，这就是你的法案。” But it also was a major political gamble for the party that will leave vulnerable lawmakers open to sharp attacks ahead of next year’s midterm elections. 但对共和党而言，这也是政治上的豪赌，它将使那些处于劣势的议员在明年的中期选举前容易受到猛烈攻击。 Many economists have estimated that its greatest benefits would go to the wealthiest Americans, who would see the most generous tax cuts. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office recently predicted that cuts to Medicaid, including the imposition of a strict work requirement, could leave 11.8 million more people without health insurance by 2034. 许多经济学家估计，该法案的最大受益者将是最富有的美国人，他们将获得最慷慨的减税。无党派的国会预算办公室不久前预测，因医疗补助削减（包括实施严格的工作要求），到2034年可能会有多达1180万人失去医保。 The office, studying earlier versions of the bill, had also warned of large benefit losses in food stamps, which will also have new work requirements, threatening to leave millions without benefits. At the same time, contrary to Republican claims that it cut deficits, the budget office reported the measure would swell the already soaring national debt by at least $3.4 trillion over a decade. 国会预算办公室在研究法案之前的版本时还警告说，新增工作要求的食品券福利将大幅缩水，数百万人恐丧失受益资格。与此同时，与共和党声称该法案削减赤字的说法相反，预算办公室报告称，这项措施将在未来十年内使已经飙升的国债至少再增加3.4万亿美元。 Polls show that the bill is deeply unpopular, and Democrats have roundly denounced it as a move to slash critical government programs to fund tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans. They have repeatedly accused Republicans of being so much in Mr. Trump’s thrall that they embraced a bill that would harm their own constituents. 民调显示，该法案极不受欢迎。民主党人一致谴责这是通过削减关键政府项目来为富豪减税的举措。他们一再指责共和党人完全被特朗普操控，竟会支持伤害自己选区民众的法案。 In an impassioned closing speech on the House floor that stretched for more than eight and a half hours, breaking the chamber’s record and delaying a final vote well into the afternoon, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, assailed the measure as a “disgusting abomination” that would hurt Americans. 纽约州民主党众议员、少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯在众议院议事厅发表了一场慷慨激昂的总结演讲，持续了八个半小时以上，打破了众议院的演讲记录，并将最终投票推迟到下午。他猛烈抨击该法案是“令人作呕的可憎之物”，将伤害美国人民。 In what amounted to a last gasp of Democratic opposition to the bill, Mr. Jeffries spent much of his time reading testimonials from Americans who said they relied on Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and other government help and worried that cuts would upend their lives. He made a point of highlighting that several of the letters came from people who live in Republican congressional districts that are among the Democrats’ top targets for the midterm elections. 作为民主党对该法案的最后抵抗，杰弗里斯花费了大量时间阅读美国民众的证词，他们表示自己依赖医疗补助、补充营养援助计划和其他政府援助，并担心削减会颠覆他们的生活。他特意强调，有几封信来自居住在共和党国会选区的人，这些选区是民主党中期选举的重要目标。 “This bill is an all-out assault on the health care of the people of the United States of America, hardworking American taxpayers,” Mr. Jeffries said. “These are the people we should be standing up, to work hard to lift up. But instead, they’re victims of this legislation.” “这项法案是对美利坚合众国民众、辛勤工作的美国纳税人的医保发起的全面攻击，”杰弗里斯说。“这些人本应是我们要支持、要努力帮助改善生活的对象。但现在，他们却成了这项立法的受害者。” In the messy, monthslong process of pushing through a bill that divided their party, Republicans in both the House and Senate made it clear that they, too, were uncomfortable with parts of it, criticizing its flaws before most of them ultimately banded together to pass it. 在长达数月、导致党内分歧的立法进程中，参众两院的共和党人也坦言对部分条款不满，在最终大多数人团结起来通过它之前，他们都曾批评该立法存在缺陷。 The House devolved into paralysis on Wednesday and into Thursday morning in the hours before the final action, as a handful of Republicans withheld their votes to bring up the measure. 从周三至周四上午，在最终投票前的几个小时里，众议院一度陷入瘫痪，少数共和党人拒绝投票支持该法案。 Mr. Trump, who had met with recalcitrant Republicans throughout the day Wednesday to pressure them to support the measure, weighed in with angry posts on social media, threatening any defectors. 特朗普周三一整天都在约见负隅顽抗的共和党议员，向他们施压，要求他们支持这项法案，更在社交媒体上发帖怒斥，对不听话的议员发出威胁。 “MAGA IS NOT HAPPY, AND IT’S COSTING YOU VOTES!!!” he wrote. “让MAGA阵营失望将付出选票代价！！！”他写道。 In the end, Mr. Johnson pulled off a victory, the latest in a series of instances in which he has faced resistance in his own party to a major legislative priority — only to pull out a narrow win with the help of considerable pressure from Mr. Trump. 最终约翰逊险胜收官——这是他又一次在重大立法遭遇党内阻力后，借助特朗普强力施压惊险取胜。 The bill squeaked through the Senate by the narrowest of margins on Tuesday. But the changes that senators made to cobble together support for it exacerbated party divides that have plagued G.O.P. efforts to advance Mr. Trump’s agenda since the beginning. Fiscal conservatives demanded even deeper cuts to rein in the deficit, while more mainstream lawmakers whose seats are at risk were wary of the biggest cuts to popular government programs. 周二该法案在参议院以小得不能再小的优势勉强通过。但为争取支持所做的修改加剧了党内分裂——这种分歧始终困扰着希望推进特朗普议程的共和党。财政保守派要求更大幅度的削减以控制赤字，而那些席位面临风险的主流议员则对大幅削减受欢迎的政府项目持谨慎态度。 One member of each faction voted against the bill on Thursday: Representative Thomas Massie, a fiscal hawk from a deep-red district in Kentucky who had railed against the high cost of the bill, and Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate from a battleground district in suburban Pennsylvania that Democrats won in the 2024 presidential election, who had expressed concern about the Medicaid, SNAP and other safety net cuts. 周四，共和党内部两个派系各有一人投下反对票：来自肯塔基州深红选区的财政鹰派托马斯·马西众议员，他曾痛斥该法案成本高昂；以及布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克众议员，他是来自宾夕法尼亚州郊区一个战场选区的温和派，该选区在2024年总统大选中被民主党赢得，他曾对医疗补助、补充营养援助计划和其他社会保障网的削减表示担忧。 Catie Edmondson、Tony Romm、Andrew Duehren、Chris Cameron和Tyler Pager对本文有报道贡献。 Michael Gold为时报报道国会新闻，重点关注移民政策和国会监督。 Megan Mineiro是时报国会记者，也是2025-26年Times Fellowship class的成员，这是一个针对早期职业记者的项目。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
CHOE SANG-HUN2025年7月4日葛麻海滩的度假村。韩国媒体称这里是“朝鲜的威基基”。 Kim Won Jin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images A new waterfront resort opened for business this week in North Korea with P.R. hype — but without the foreign visitors that the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, hoped would one day arrive with tourist cash to offset financially punishing sanctions. 朝鲜本周高调宣传新海滨度假区开业，但未迎来外国游客，朝鲜领导人金正恩曾希望有朝一日通过游客带来旅游收入，缓解严厉经济制裁。 On Thursday, state media reported on North Korean families crowding a 2.5-mile-long scenic sandy beach on its central east coast, which began accepting tourists two days earlier. “The joy and optimism of the tourists were overflowing everywhere, and the song of happiness resounded in the windows of bright lodgings,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said. 周四，朝鲜官方媒体报道称，朝鲜家庭游客挤满中部东海岸一个约四公里长的美丽海滩，该海滩于两天前开始接待游客。朝鲜官方的朝中社称：“到处洋溢着游客的喜悦和乐观，欢快的歌声在明亮的住所窗前回荡。” The resort, which is called Wonsan Kalma and can accommodate 20,000 people, is the most ambitious among the seafront or mountainside spa and ski resorts Mr. Kim has been building to attract foreign tourists. Mr. Kim, his wife and his daughter attended a ceremony in late June marking the completion of the facility. 该度假村名为元山葛麻，可容纳2万人，是金正恩为吸引外国游客而建造的海滨或山边水疗滑雪度假村中最雄心勃勃的一个。金正恩及妻女出席了6月底举行的竣工仪式。 Mr. Kim began promoting tourism after the United Nations imposed severe sanctions in 2017 that banned all of his country’s main exports, including coal and textiles. The sanctions were designed to strip North Korea of the means of earning foreign currency to finance its nuclear and missile programs. But they did not affect tourism, which Mr. Kim saw as a new source of sorely needed foreign currency. 在联合国于2017年对朝鲜实施严厉制裁，禁止其出口包括煤炭和纺织品在内的所有主要产品后，金正恩开始推动旅游业的发展。制裁旨在切断其核计划和导弹计划的资金来源，但旅游业未受制裁影响，金正恩将该行业视为亟需的外汇新来源。 Mr. Kim’s aims were best displayed in the transformation of Kalma Beach. North Korea used to fill it with pieces of artillery during military drills. In recent years, however, Mr. Kim has lined the beach with newly built water parks and multistory resort hotels. South Korean media nicknamed Kalma Beach “North Korea’s Waikiki.” 葛麻海滩的改造工程堪称金正恩意图的最佳注脚。朝鲜曾在军事演习期间在这里摆满大炮。但近年来，金正恩在海滩上新建了水上公园和多层度假酒店，韩国媒体称葛麻海滩为“朝鲜的威基基”（威基基是夏威夷的著名海滩——译注）。 周二，来自朝鲜国内的游客抵达元山葛麻。但中国尚未批准公民前往朝鲜旅游。 But Mr. Kim’s tourism plans did not go as he had hoped. The pandemic led North Korea to shut its borders and dried up a stream of tourists from China that had numbered 300,000 a year. Mr. Kim’s new resort complexes remained half-finished or empty during that period. The country reopened its borders in 2023. 但是，金正恩的旅游发展计划没有如愿开展。疫情导致朝鲜关闭国门，每年约30万人次的中国游客来源也因此枯竭。在此期间，金正恩新建的度假村一直处于未竣工或空置状态。朝鲜于2023年重新开放边境。 In recent months, visits by hundreds of tourists from Russia have reflected warming ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, after North Korea supplied much-needed personnel and weaponry to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine. 近几个月来，数百名俄罗斯游客的到访反映出平壤和莫斯科之间的关系正在升温。此前，朝鲜为俄罗斯对抗乌克兰的战争提供了急需的人员和武器。 But China has yet to allow its citizens to travel to North Korea. Beijing is widely believed to be wary that North Korea will grow too close to Russia, which could reduce its leverage over a recalcitrant Pyongyang. 但中国至今未批准公民前往朝鲜旅游。外界普遍认为，北京担心朝鲜与俄罗斯走得太近，这可能会削弱其对难以驯服的朝鲜的影响力。 South Korea — the only other country that shares a border with North Korea — stopped sending tourists to the North in 2008, when it closed a joint inter-Korean tourism complex. 韩国是除中国外唯一与朝鲜接壤的国家。2008年，韩国关闭了一个朝韩联合旅游园区，停止向朝鲜输送游客。 On Thursday, North Korea’s state media released photos showing North Korean families bathing, water skiing, riding water slides and playing volleyball in the sand, as well as children splashing in the water with swimming tubes. But no foreign tourists were in sight. 周四，朝鲜官方媒体发布的照片显示，朝鲜家庭在沙滩上沐浴、滑水、玩滑水道和打排球，还有孩子们拿着游泳圈戏水。但是看不到外国游客。 Russian tourists were expected to visit the beach over the summer, South Korean officials said. But their numbers would be small, they said, given limited transportation options in North Korea (Kalma is about 130 miles, or 210 kilometers, from Pyongyang) and poor road conditions between the Russian border and Kalma Beach. 韩国官员表示，预计今年夏天将有俄罗斯游客前往该海滩。但他们指出，考虑到朝鲜的交通选择有限（葛麻距离平壤约210公里），而且俄朝边境和葛麻海滩之间的道路状况不佳，因此游客不会很多。 Choe Sang-Hun是时报驻首尔首席记者，报道韩国和朝鲜新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
艾莎2025年7月4日中国义乌物流中心的工人将出口货物装入集装箱，中国利用越南和其他邻国来规避美国对中国商品征收的关税。 Kevin Frayer/Getty Images In his first term, President Trump forced companies to kick their dependence on China. Now he is pressing countries to squeeze China out of their supply chains. 特朗普总统在他的第一个任期里曾强迫企业戒除对中国的依赖。现在，他正在向世界各国施压，把中国从它们的供应链中挤出去。 A preliminary trade pact between Vietnam and the United States announced on Wednesday is the most significant step so far toward that goal. Although the details are sparse, Vietnamese exports to the United States will face a 20 percent tariff, less than a much higher rate that Mr. Trump had threatened. 越南与美国周三宣布达成初步贸易协议，这是向这个目标迈出的迄今为止最重要的一步。虽然公布的细节不多，但有一点已明确：越南对美国的出口将面临20%的关税，远低于特朗普此前威胁施加的税率。 But notably, the deal would put a 40 percent tariff on any export from Vietnam classified as a transshipment, or goods that originated in another country and were merely passed through Vietnam. 协议中值得注意的一点是，将对来自越南、被归类为转口贸易的出口商品征收40%的关税，这些商品原产于另一国家，只是经越南转运。 The penalty aims at China, which has used Vietnam and neighboring countries to circumvent American tariffs on its goods. And it could become a feature of U.S. trade deals with other Southeast Asian governments as they try to avert sky-high tariffs that take effect on Wednesday. 这项惩罚性措施针对的是中国，中国一直在利用越南和其他邻国来规避美国对中国商品征收的关税。而且，随着其他东南亚国家政府正试图避免下周三生效的高额关税，这种条款可能会成为美国与这些国家达成的贸易协定中的一个特点。 Mr. Trump’s trade negotiators are pushing Vietnam’s export oriented neighbors like Indonesia to reduce how much Chinese content is in their supply chains. They are asking the government of Thailand to screen incoming foreign investment, hoping to stop Chinese businesses from moving into the country. They are even pressuring some countries to consider export controls of technology like semiconductors. 特朗普的贸易谈判代表们正在推动越南的出口导向型邻国（如印度尼西亚）减少供应链中的中国产品含量。他们要求泰国政府审查外来投资，希望阻止中国企业进入该国。他们甚至向一些国家施压，要求它们考虑对半导体等技术采取出口管制措施。 “The Trump administration is saying, ‘We need to see strategic decoupling if you are going to be a trade partner with the U.S.,’” said Steve Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, a geopolitical consulting firm. “The question is, will countries agree to that?” “特朗普政府正在说，‘如果你们想在将来继续当美国的贸易伙伴的话，我们需要看到战略性的脱钩。’”地缘政治咨询公司APAC Advisors的首席执行官史蒂夫·奥肯说。“问题是，世界各国同意这样做吗？” The U.S. efforts to sequester China heightens the vulnerabilities faced by countries in Southeast Asia, a strategically important region for Beijing and already on the frontline of China’s domination of global trade and manufacturing. On Thursday, China’s commerce ministry said it was “conducting an assessment” of the U.S.-Vietnam agreement, adding that it firmly opposed any deal that came “at the expense of China’s interest” and would “take countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.” 美国孤立中国的努力加剧了东南亚国家面临的脆弱性。这个对北京具有重要战略意义的地区本就处于中国主导全球贸易与制造业的前沿。中国商务部周四表示正在对美国与越南达成的贸易协议“开展评估”，还表示，中国坚决反对任何国家“以牺牲中方利益为手段达成交易，如果出现这种情况，中方将坚决予以反制，维护自身正当权益”。 The trade terms that the United States and Vietnam have so far agreed to will also hinge on how they are defined — for example, how much Chinese inputs will be allowed in Vietnamese exports, and how they will be enforced. 美国与越南目前已达成的贸易条款最终效力取决于条款的界定标准，例如越南的出口产品中允许含有的中国原材料比例上限，以及具体的执行机制。 Vietnam had everything to lose going into trade talks with the United States. Mr. Trump threatened the country with an import tax of 46 percent on its goods, sending shock waves through industries like footwear, garment and electronics that have come to depend on the country as an alternative to China. 越南在与美国进行贸易谈判之初面临着损失惨重的可能。特朗普曾威胁对越南商品征收46%的关税，令鞋类、服装和电子等将越南作为中国替代方案的行业大为震惊。 越南的一家服装厂。越南向美国出口的产品将面临20%的关税，低于特朗普总统曾威胁征收的税率。 The uncertainty caused by Mr. Trump’s threat of tariffs was weighing on Vietnamese businesses. 特朗普的关税威胁带来的不确定性给越南企业造成压力。 A 20 percent tariff was not anyone’s best-case scenario, said Tran Quang, an executive at a home fragrance company that exports nearly all of its products to the United States. “But it is not so bad,” he said. 20%的关税不是所有人都想看到的最佳方案，家用香氛公司的高管陈光（音）说，这家公司的几乎所有产品都出口美国。“但也不算太糟，”他说。 He added that he supports the steeper duty on transshipment because it could help local Vietnamese businesses facing unfair competition from Chinese companies that have invested in Vietnam to escape tariffs. 他同时表示，支持对转运产品征收更高的关税，因为那会有助于越南的本土企业，它们面临着为规避美国关税来越南投资的中国企业的不公平竞争。 “There are a lot of small Chinese guys who come to Vietnam just to relabel their products before exporting to the U.S.,” he said. “有很多中国小企业，它们来越南，只是为了给产品换个标签，然后将其出口到美国，”他说。 Trade and investment from Chinese companies has helped bolster economic growth in Vietnam and the region, but Southeast Asia is struggling to beat back the torrent of goods from China that are putting domestic companies out of business. In recent years, with China’s economy threatened by a real estate crisis, the government has heavily subsidized factories leading to a surge in Chinese exports around the world. 虽然来自中资企业的贸易和投资助推了越南及周边地区的经济增长，但东南亚地区也在努力抵挡来自中国的商品洪流，一些本土企业已在洪流中倒下。近年来，由于中国的经济增长受到房地产危机的威胁，政府通过重金补贴制造业导致出口产品涌向世界各地。 But limitations on China’s trade in the region risk setting off chain reactions that could damage Southeast Asian countries. 但对中国在东南亚地区的贸易进行限制可能会引发损害东南亚国家利益的连锁反应。 The lack of information so far released about the Vietnam deal make it impossible to fully gauge its impact, experts said. Transshipment could refer to products that originate in China. It could also include things that are made in Vietnam but have a certain percentage of Chinese parts. 专家们说，目前越美贸易协议的细节尚不明确，因此无法对其影响进行全面评估。转运产品可能指的是原产于中国的产品，也可能包括在越南制造但含有一定比例中国零部件的产品。 But if the limits on Chinese components end up being strict, American companies could move their production out of Vietnam, said Matt Priest, chief executive of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, a trade group. 但如果最终的结果是严格限制使用来自中国的零部件的话，美国公司会将生产迁出越南，贸易团体美国鞋类分销商和零售商协会的首席执行官马特·普里斯特说。 河内老城区的一个鞋店。特朗普威胁对越南商品征收46%的关税，这给越南的鞋类、服装和电子等行业带来了冲击。 “If it’s too onerous or difficult to comply, companies won’t use the opportunity to grow sourcing in Vietnam,” he said. “They may even head back to China if it’s price competitive.” “如果协议过于繁琐或难以遵守，企业不会把其作为扩大在越南采购的机会，”他说。“它们甚至也许会回到中国，如果那里的价格更有竞争力的话。” The pact with Vietnam also leaves uncertainty for businesses as they wait to see what kind of tariffs and restrictions on China other Southeast Asian countries agree to in potential deals with the Trump administration. 与越南达成协议也给企业带来了不确定性，因为它们正在观望其他东南亚国家与特朗普政府达成的潜在协议中会有什么样的关税，以及针对中国的限制措施。 The restrictions on the amount of Chinese content in exported products also places a burden on local customs officials who have never been asked to scrutinize exports so closely, raising questions about how effective they will be. Some countries have even discussed setting up entirely different supply chains for the United States. 对出口产品中包含的中国成分进行量化限制也给当地的海关关员带来负担，他们以前从未被要求对出口商品进行如此严格的溯源审查，让人对监管效能存疑。一些国家甚至考虑为出口美国的产品建立完全不同的供应链。 Washington also risks pushing some countries that are deeply integrated with China’s economy into Beijing’s arms. 华盛顿方面还有可能把一些与中国经济深度融合的国家推向北京的怀抱。 Many Asian governments are concerned about how China could respond to deals that seek to isolate Chinese firms. Beijing has shown that it is willing to take increasingly aggressive retaliatory measures like boycotting products and restricting critical minerals that its neighbors depend on. It has also turned to ratcheting up tensions in the South China Sea, where it has made military claims to much of the waterway. 许多亚洲国家政府担心中国会对试图孤立中国企业的贸易协议如何反应。中国政府已展示出采取越来越富攻击性反制措施的意愿，例如抵制邻国产品，限制向邻国出口其依赖的关键矿产。中国政府还采取了加剧南中国海紧张局势的做法，并使用军事手段加强了对南中国海大部分水域的领土主张。 “Politically we have to tread carefully between the two superpowers,” said Pavida Pananond, professor of International Business at Thammasat University in Thailand. “China is a very important economic power, not just as an importer of goods but a source of investment and destination for exports.” “从政治的角度来看，我们需要在这两个超级大国之间谨慎行事，”泰国法政大学国际商务学教授帕维达·帕南德说。“中国是一个非常重要的经济大国，它不仅是进口商品来源地，也是投资来源地和出口商品目的地。” Southeast Asian countries have taken their own steps to tighten monitoring and enforcement of transshipment in recent weeks, providing some insight into what they might agree to in their own trade pacts with Washington. 东南亚国家已在最近几周纷纷采取措施，加强对转运产品的监督执法，为它们与美国达成的贸易协议中可能有什么样的条款提供了一些线索。 In Thailand, where Mr. Trump has threatened 36 percent tariffs, the government has estimated that its actions to closely scrutinize exports for transshipment could reduce its exports to the United States by $15 billion, equivalent to one third of Thailand’s trade surplus with Washington last year. It has also promised to look more closely at foreign investments in areas like electric vehicles where Chinese companies have invested a lot of money to bring their own suppliers into Thailand. 特朗普威胁要对泰国产品征收36%的关税。泰国政府估计，严格审查转运出口可能导致泰国对美国的出口额减少150亿美元，相当于去年泰国与美国贸易顺差的三分之一。泰国已承诺对电动汽车等行业的外国投资进行更严格的审查，中国企业为了将自己的供应商带到泰国，已在这些行业投入巨资。 曼谷车展上的比亚迪。 Authorities in Malaysia and Indonesia have tightened export rules to ensure that shipments to the United States are accurately documented. Both countries also centralized the authority to issue of certificates for exports. 马来西亚和印度尼西亚的政府已加强了出口管理，以确保出口美国的货物有准确的文件记录。这两个国家还集中了出口许可证的签发权。 Even before any trade deals are hammered out, the Trump administration is already reshaping how the region views China. 甚至在敲定任何贸易协议之前，特朗普政府已在改变东南亚地区对中国的看法。 “The idea is to squeeze China out,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, an organization that focuses on trade. “目的是把中国挤出去，”欣里奇基金会的贸易政策负责人黛博拉·埃尔姆斯说，该组织专门研究贸易问题。 But for countries like Vietnam, going along with what the United States is geopolitically risky. 但对越南等国家来说，顺从美国的要求有地缘政治危险。 “It’s a gamble all around to see how the U.S., China and companies in your country will respond,” Ms. Elms said. “这是一场多方面的赌博，看美国、中国，以及其他国家的企业将如何响应，”埃尔姆斯说。 Tung Ngo自越南河内、Zunaira Saieed自马来西亚吉隆坡对本文有报道贡献。 艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
JACK EWING2025年7月3日2024年，中国公司生产的电动汽车占全球销量的70%；美国汽车制造商的销量仅占5%。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times President Trump has said his policies will revive auto manufacturing in the United States. But Republican attacks on electric vehicles could do just the opposite, some industry experts say, by surrendering leadership in an emerging technology. 特朗普总统曾表示，他的政策将重振美国的汽车制造业。但一些行业专家表示，共和党对电动汽车的攻击可能会适得其反，让美国放弃在新兴技术领域的领先地位。 China already has a formidable head start in electric vehicles and the batteries and minerals needed to produce them. Companies like BYD, SAIC and Geely produced 70 percent of the electric cars sold globally in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. Automakers in the United States produced just 5 percent. 中国在电动汽车以及生产电动汽车所需的电池和矿物方面已经有了巨大的领先优势。根据国际能源机构的数据，在2024年，比亚迪、上汽和吉利等公司生产的电动汽车占全球销量的70%。美国汽车制造商的产品只占5%。 Tesla is the only American company that ranks among the world’s 10 largest electric vehicle makers. General Motors and Ford Motor are minor players. Even Tesla, which made electric cars mainstream and held the No. 1 spot for several years, has been overtaken by BYD and Geely, according to SNE Research, a South Korean research firm. 特斯拉是唯一一家跻身全球十大电动汽车制造商之列的美国公司。通用汽车和福特汽车只是配角。根据韩国研究公司SNE Research的数据，即使是让电动汽车成为主流并连年占据第一位的特斯拉也已被比亚迪和吉利超越。 The more electric vehicles that Chinese companies make, the more difficult it will be for U.S. carmakers to catch up. The Chinese companies can spread the costs of developing new technology across more vehicles. They can buy parts at more favorable prices and reap other benefits of the economies of scale that are critical to success in the auto industry. 中国公司生产的电动汽车越多，美国汽车制造商就越难赶上。中国公司可以将开发新技术的成本分摊到更多的汽车上。他们可以以更优惠的价格购买零部件，并从规模经济中获得其他好处，这对汽车行业的成功至关重要。 One in five new cars sold worldwide is electric, and the percentage is increasing. That is one of the reasons that U.S. automakers have steadily lost ground in Asia, Europe and Latin America in recent years. Many consumers in those countries are instead buying cars from Chinese companies that offer a wide array of affordable electric and hybrid vehicles. 在全球，每售出五辆新车就有一辆是电动汽车，而且这个比例还在上升。这也是近年来美国汽车制造商在亚洲、欧洲和拉丁美洲节节败退的原因之一。这些国家的许多消费者转而从中国公司购买汽车，这些公司提供各种价格适宜的电动汽车和混合动力汽车。 G.M. and Ford now earn a large majority of their profits in the United States. Analysts say their sales in the rest of the world could be reduced to rounding errors in the coming years based on current trends. 通用和福特目前在美国赚取大部分利润。分析师表示，根据目前的趋势，未来几年它们在世界其他地区的销售额可能会减少到可以忽略不计的程度。 “The United States needs to decide if they want an auto industry that can compete globally,” said Greg Dotson, an associate professor at the University of Oregon School of Law and former Democratic chief counsel for the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. “It’s just clear that’s the way the world is moving.” “美国需要决定，他们是否想要一个能够在全球竞争的汽车工业，”俄勒冈大学法学院副教授、参议院环境与公共工程委员会前民主党首席法律顾问格雷格·多森说。“很明显，这就是世界发展的方向。” The budget and policy bill passed by the Senate Tuesday would slash Biden-era measures designed to give G.M., Ford and other domestic manufacturers a fighting chance of surviving Chinese competition. 参议院周二通过的预算和政策法案将削减拜登时代的措施，这些措施旨在给通用、福特和其他国内制造商创造一个在中国竞争中生存下来的反击机会。 The bill eliminates tax credits of up to $7,500 for electric vehicle buyers, claws back money for fast chargers and phases out subsidies for companies that set up battery factories and lithium mines. 法案取消了对电动汽车购买者高达7500美元的税收抵免，收回了用于快速充电技术的资金，并逐步取消了对建立电池厂和锂矿的公司的补贴。 Killing those programs would endanger more than $200 billion that auto companies, battery makers, mining companies and others have invested to create a U.S. electric vehicle supply chain not dependent on China, according to data compiled by Jay Turner, a professor of environmental studies at Wellesley College, and his students. 根据韦尔斯利学院环境研究教授杰·特纳和他的学生汇编的数据，取消这些项目将危及汽车公司、电池制造商、矿业公司和其他公司为建立一个不依赖中国的美国电动汽车供应链而投资的逾2000亿美元。 “The government doesn’t seem to be interested in the competitiveness of the auto industry,” said Jody Freeman, director of the Environmental and Energy Law Program at Harvard Law School. “Who’s going to buy our cars?” “政府似乎对汽车工业的竞争力不感兴趣，”哈佛法学院环境与能源法项目主任乔迪·弗里曼说。“谁会买我们的车？” Already some manufacturing projects have slowed. AESC, a Chinese-owned battery maker, has paused construction of a factory in South Carolina that was expected to supply BMW and other carmakers. The delay will make it harder for electric vehicle makers to buy batteries made by American workers. Just two Chinese companies, CATL and BYD, account for more than half of global battery production, and China is the main source of battery materials like refined graphite and lithium. 一些制造项目已经放慢了速度。中国电池制造商远景动力已暂停在南卡罗来纳州建设一家工厂，该工厂原计划为宝马和其他汽车制造商供货。这一延迟将使电动汽车制造商更难购买美国工人生产的电池。仅宁德时代和比亚迪两家中国公司就占据了全球电池产量的一半以上，而且中国是精炼石墨和锂等电池材料的主要来源。 Republicans argue that Democratic efforts to subsidize electric vehicles mainly helped affluent car buyers. They also argue the cars are inferior to gasoline models. It’s true that U.S. electric vehicle sales have been modest compared with sales elsewhere. Including Canada and Mexico, they grew 3 percent this year through May, compared with the same period in 2024, according to Rho Motion, a research firm. Growth was 33 percent in China and 27 percent in Europe. 共和党人认为，民主党补贴电动汽车的努力主要帮助了富裕的购车者。他们还认为电动车不如汽油车。的确，与其他地区相比，美国的电动汽车销量并不算高。根据研究公司Rho Motion的数据，与2024年同期相比，包括加拿大和墨西哥在内，今年截至5月的销量与2024年同期相比增长了3%。中国和欧洲的增长率分别为33%和27%。 “No president has taken a greater interest in restoring the dominance of the American auto industry than President Trump,” Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said in an email. “Instead of doling out inefficient subsidies, the Trump administration is deploying a multifaceted approach of rapid deregulation, tariffs and other pro-growth policies.” “没有哪位总统比特朗普总统更关心恢复美国汽车工业的主导地位，”白宫发言人库什·德赛在电子邮件中表示。“特朗普政府没有发放效率低下的补贴，而是采取了多方面的措施，包括快速放松管制、征收关税和其他促增长政策。” 特斯拉曾连续数年稳居电动汽车销量榜首，如今已被中国汽车制造商比亚迪和吉利超越。 Electric vehicles remain more expensive than gas and hybrid cars in the United States. Despite improvements, the fast charging network remains spotty. China has a much denser charging network, and many electric vehicles cost less than comparable gasoline-powered cars because of intense competition and more efficient manufacturing. 在美国，电动汽车仍然比汽油和混合动力汽车贵。快速充电网络尽管有所改进，但仍然不完善。中国的充电网络要密集得多，而且由于竞争激烈和生产效率更高，许多电动汽车的成本低于同等汽油动力汽车。 But auto executives are nearly unanimous that, even in the United States, electric and hybrid vehicles will eventually displace gasoline-powered vehicles. Sales of cars that run solely on fossil fuels have been declining for a decade, accounting for less than 74 percent of the U.S. market in the first quarter of this year, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the main lobbying group for most major carmakers. 但汽车行业的高管们几乎一致认为，即使在美国，电动和混合动力汽车最终也将取代汽油动力汽车。根据汽车创新联盟的数据，纯化石燃料汽车的销量十年来一直在下降，今年第一季度占美国市场的份额不到74%。该联盟是大多数主要汽车制造商的主要游说团体。 Consumers are increasingly choosing hybrids, which have electric motors and gasoline engines, or pure electric vehicles. In hybrid technology, U.S. automakers are behind the Japanese automakers Toyota and Honda. Many auto experts believe that prices for fully electric vehicles will fall as the technology improves and that, within a few years, they will be cheaper than cars that run on gasoline. 越来越多的消费者选择有电动机和汽油发动机的混合动力车或纯电动汽车。在混合动力技术方面，美国汽车制造商落后于日本汽车制造商丰田和本田。许多汽车专家认为，随着技术的进步，全电动汽车的价格将会下降，在几年内，它们将比汽油车便宜。 Automakers say they remain committed to electric vehicles. “We have some of the best and most successful E.V.s on the market today,” Mary T. Barra, the chief executive of General Motors, told investors and analysts in May. She cited the Chevrolet Equinox EV, which dealers are offering for lease at less than $400 a month. The Equinox can travel more than 300 miles between charges. 汽车制造商表示，他们仍然致力于电动汽车的发展。“我们拥有当今市场上最好、最成功的一些电动汽车，”通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉今年5月对投资者和分析师说。她以雪佛兰Equinox EV为例，经销商提供的租赁价格不到每月400美元。Equinox每次充电可以行驶约500公里。 But Ms. Barra added, “To protect our brands, we have moderated E.V. production to ensure that we stay aligned with the consumer demand to avoid the heavy discounts our competitors offer.” 但巴拉补充说，“为了保护我们的品牌，我们已经放缓了电动汽车的生产，以确保我们与消费者的需求保持一致，避免我们的竞争对手提供的大幅折扣。” Ford continues to work on manufacturing complexes in Tennessee and Michigan that will produce electric vehicles and batteries. The company is “deep into the development of our future electric vehicles, which we expect to be profitable, affordable and high-volume,” William C. Ford Jr., the chair of the company, and Jim Farley, the chief executive, said in a report on the company’s sustainability programs this month. 福特公司继续在田纳西州和密歇根州建设生产电动汽车和电池的工厂。福特董事长小威廉·福特和首席执行官吉姆·法利本月在一份关于该公司可持续发展计划的报告中表示，该公司“正在深入开发未来的电动汽车，我们预计这种汽车将实现盈利、价格合理、产量高。” Mr. Farley and other top executives at Ford regularly visit China, he said at the Aspen Ideas Festival last week. They test drive vehicles and fly some of the most interesting ones back to Detroit for closer study. 法利上周在阿斯彭创意节上表示，他和福特的其他高管频频访问中国。他们试驾汽车，并将一些最有趣的车空运回底特律进行更深入的研究。 He praised Chinese quality, calling it “the most humbling thing I’ve ever seen.” 他称赞中国的质量，称其为“我见过的最让人敬畏的东西”。 Ford has a team of former Tesla engineers in California working on electric vehicles that the company says will be able to compete with Chinese cars on price while being more appealing. 福特在加州有一支由前特斯拉工程师组成的团队，致力于电动汽车的研发。福特表示，这些电动汽车将能够在价格上与中国汽车竞争，同时更具吸引力。 For now, Chinese carmakers are effectively frozen out of the United States by 100 percent tariffs. But BYD and others are already selling cars in many other countries, including Brazil, Britain, Mexico and Thailand, where they will be seen and driven by American tourists and business travelers. In years to come, political leaders in the United States may find it difficult to explain to consumers why they cannot buy cheap, capable electric vehicles that are available in other countries. 目前，由于100%的关税，中国汽车制造商实际上被挡在了美国门外。但比亚迪和其他公司已经在许多其他国家销售汽车，包括巴西、英国、墨西哥和泰国，在那里，前来旅游和出差的美国人将看到并驾驶它们。在未来的几年里，美国的政治领导人可能会发现很难向消费者解释，为什么他们不能购买在其他国家可以买到的价格便宜、性能优秀的电动汽车。 Protectionist policies may also encourage complacency by U.S. automakers. If they don’t need to worry about Chinese rivals and don’t have to meet tougher fuel economy standards, they might delay investing in the latest technology and keep making large pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles that guzzle gasoline. 保护主义政策也可能助长美国汽车制造商的自满情绪。如果它们不需要担心中国的竞争对手，也不需要达到更严格的燃油经济性标准，它们可能会推迟对最新技术的投资，继续生产耗油的大型皮卡和运动型多功能车。 “We should be viewing this as a question of national competitiveness,” said Michael Lenox, a professor of business administration at the University of Virginia. “How long can you keep those cars from the U.S. market through trade restrictions?” “我们应该把这看作是国家竞争力的问题，”弗吉尼亚大学工商管理教授迈克尔·莱诺克斯说。“你还能用贸易限制把这些汽车挡在美国市场之外多久？” Jack Ewing为时报报道汽车行业，重点关注电动汽车。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MUJIB MASHAL, HARI KUMAR2025年7月3日达赖喇嘛曾暗示他可能会改变传统的转世体系，这似乎是他为了摆脱中国政府控制、避免北京利用领导层的真空来掌控藏传佛教的一种策略。 Atul Loke for The New York Times As the Dalai Lama turns 90 this month, he is focusing attention on the future of Tibetan Buddhism and the exiled Tibetan nation. 本月将迎来90岁生日的达赖喇嘛正将注意力集中在藏传佛教和流亡藏人群体的未来上。 The spiritual leader, who led a flock of tens of thousands out of Tibet and into exile to escape Chinese persecution nearly seven decades ago, has long raised questions about the future of Tibetan Buddhism’s highest office, in the face of Chinese interference. 近70年前，为了逃避中国的迫害，这位精神领袖带领数万民众离开西藏流亡海外。面对中国的干涉，他长期以来对藏传佛教最高职位的传承问题表示担忧。 The Dalai Lama has hinted that he might upend established practices for his succession, as part of an apparent strategy to throw off the Chinese government and avoid a leadership vacuum that Beijing can exploit as it seeks to control Tibetan Buddhism. 达赖喇嘛曾暗示他可能会改变传统的转世体系，这似乎是他为了摆脱中国政府控制、避免北京利用领导层的真空来掌控藏传佛教的一种策略。 On Wednesday, he said the institution of the Dalai Lama would continue, without offering many specifics. But he said the Gaden Phodrang Trust, an organization run by the Dalai Lama’s office, had “sole authority” to recognize a future reincarnation. 他在周三表示，将延续现有的转世体系，但没有提供太多具体细节。不过他表示，由达赖喇嘛办公室管理的甘丹颇章基金会拥有认定未来转世的“唯一权力”。 Who is the Dalai Lama? 达赖喇嘛是谁？ Tenzin Gyatso is the 14th Dalai Lama. 丹增嘉措是第十四世达赖喇嘛。 He was born into a farming family in 1935 in what was then northeastern Tibet and is now Qinghai Province in China. He was recognized at age 2 as the reincarnation of the 13th Dalai Lama and afterward began monastic training and Buddhist philosophical studies. 他于1935年出生于当时的西藏东北部（现中国青海省）一个农民家庭，两岁时被认定为第十三世达赖喇嘛的转世灵童，此后开始接受寺院教育并研习佛学。 Chinese troops entered Tibet in 1950. At age 15, the Dalai Lama became Tibet’s political leader, guiding the Tibetan people through the crisis. In 1959, during the Tibetan uprising, the Dalai Lama left the country for India with many of his followers, and he has never returned. 1950年，中国军队进入西藏。达赖喇嘛在15岁时成为西藏的政治领袖，带领藏人度过危机。1959年西藏起义期间，达赖喇嘛与众多追随者一起离开西藏前往印度，此后再未返回故土。 He settled in the Himalayan town of Dharamsala and formed a government in exile. In 1989, the Dalai Lama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. In 2011, he relinquished his political leadership role in the Tibetan government in exile but kept his position as spiritual leader. 他在位于喜马拉雅山的小城达兰萨拉定居下来，并建立了一个流亡政府。1989年，达赖喇嘛被授予诺贝尔和平奖。2011年，他卸任流亡政府的政治领导职务，但保留了精神领袖的地位。 1959年西藏起义失败后不久，达赖喇嘛在印度。 Daniele Darolle/Getty Images In a book he published this year, the Dalai Lama describes how, after years of fruitless negotiations with Chinese leaders, he came to the decision that fighting for Tibetan independence was a lost cause. Instead, he began advocating that Tibetans be given cultural autonomy within China. 在他今年出版的一本书中，达赖喇嘛描述了自己在与中国领导人多年徒劳无果的谈判后，认定争取西藏独立已无望，于是转而主张在中国境内争取藏人在文化上的自治。 How will his successor be chosen? 如何选出继任者？ Traditionally, the search for a Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, who becomes his successor, begins only upon the incumbent’s death and could take several years. 传统上，寻找达赖喇嘛转世灵童的工作须待其圆寂后方能启动，可能历时数年之久。 Tibetan Buddhist leaders say they follow ancient customs of parsing mystical visions, clues left by the previous Dalai Lama and astrology to help narrow their search. Candidates are then tested to see if they show any traits that could be deemed especially holy. 藏传佛教领袖表示，转世灵童的寻访过程遵循古老仪轨，通过解析神秘的异象、前任达赖喇嘛留下的线索及星象占卜来缩小寻访范围。候选灵童会经严格甄别，检验其是否显现特别征兆。 The Dalai Lama has offered hints that he might diverge from the customs. He has said that his successor will be born in a free country, indicating that the next Dalai Lama could come from among Tibetan exiles, who number about 140,000, half of them in India. He has also said that his successor could be an adult, and not necessarily a man. 达赖喇嘛曾暗示，他可能突破传统仪轨。他说，转世灵童将降生于自由国度，这表明下一任达赖喇嘛可能来自约14万流亡藏人群体，其中半数生活在印度。他还表示，他的继任者可能是成年人，且未必是男性。 At times, he has even suggested that the institution of the Dalai Lama had served its purpose and did not necessarily need to be continued. 这位宗教领袖甚至数次暗示，达赖喇嘛制度已完成了历史使命，因此不一定需要延续。 On Wednesday, in a video statement to a meeting of religious leaders, he said that the Tibetan people wanted the institution to continue, and that the next Dalai Lama’s search and recognition should happen “in accordance with past tradition.” 周三在一场藏传佛教高僧会议上发表的视频讲话中，达赖喇嘛表示藏人希望这一制度继续存在，并且下一任达赖喇嘛的寻访和认定应“按照过去的传统”进行。 Officials would not clarify whether the leader was ruling out his earlier proposals, saying that the Dalai Lama remained in good health, and that he would give clearer instructions on reincarnation when the time was right. 流亡政府的官员没有澄清这位藏传佛教领袖是否否定了自己之前的提议，只说达赖喇嘛健康状况良好，会在适当时机就转世问题作出更明确的指示。 Lobsang Tenzin, the Tibetan trust’s second-most-senior leader, who is known by his religious title of Samdhong Rinpoche, said the Dalai Lama had weighed the future of the institution for decades, but over time he found that Tibetan people favored preserving it. 甘丹颇章基金会的二号人物、法号桑东仁波切的洛桑丹增表示，达赖喇嘛数十年来一直在考虑该制度的未来，但随着时间的推移，他发现藏人倾向于保留它。 But he did not say how the Dalai Lama planned to shield the reincarnation process from Chinese interference. “When the time comes, he will give instructions,” Samdhong Rinpoche said. 但他没有说明达赖喇嘛计划如何避免中国对转世制度的干预。“时机成熟时，他会给出指示，”桑东仁波切说。 How might China try to control the succession? 中国会如何干预转世体系？ China’s leaders claim that only the ruling Communist Party — an avowed atheist organization — can name the next incarnation of the Dalai Lama. 中国领导人声称，只有执政的共产党——一个公开宣称为无神论者的组织——才能批准下一任达赖喇嘛。 By seeking to control Tibetan Buddhism’s leadership, China hopes it can all but erase the Dalai Lama’s influence in Tibet and any challenges to the party’s rule. 中国希望通过控制藏传佛教的领导层彻底消除达赖喇嘛在西藏的影响力，以及对中共统治的任何挑战。 The Chinese government has tried to resurrect a “golden urn” system — using a relic once employed by the Manchu emperors of the Qing dynasty to anoint Tibetan lamas — to further control successions. Beijing has said that after a reincarnated lama is selected using the urn, the choice must be approved by the Chinese government. 为了进一步掌控转世程序，中国政府试图恢复“金瓶掣签”制度——这一办法曾由清朝的满人皇帝用于任命藏传佛教活佛。北京方面表示，通过金瓶掣签选出活佛后，最终人选必须得到中国政府的批准。 China already has a blueprint for inserting itself into Tibetan Buddhist successions. When the 10th Panchen Lama, Tibet’s second-highest spiritual figure, died in 1989, the Dalai Lama named the 5-year-old son of a herder as the successor. The boy and his family were kidnapped by China, and the boy — who has not been seen since — was replaced with a monk chosen by Beijing. 事实上，中国已经有一个干预藏传佛教转世的“蓝图”。1989年，藏传佛教中排名第二位的精神领袖第十世班禅喇嘛圆寂后，达赖喇嘛认定一名牧民的五岁儿子为其转世灵童。然而，这个男孩及其家人被中国政府绑架，从此下落不明，男孩被北京选择的一名僧侣取代。 Last month, that monk met with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, and pledged his allegiance to the Chinese Communist Party, state media reported. 据中国官媒报道，就在上个月，那名被中国政府认可的僧侣与中国领导人习近平会面，并宣誓效忠中国共产党。 In his statement to the conference of monks on Wednesday, the Dalai Lama said a trust under his office has “sole authority” for the search and recognition of the next Dalai Lama. Without naming Beijing, he said “no one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter.” 周三向与会高僧讲话的达赖喇嘛表示，他办公室下属的一个信托机构拥有寻访和认定下一任达赖喇嘛的“唯一权力”。他虽未点名北京，但明确表示“任何人都无权干涉。” The monks were more blunt. In a statement, they condemned “the People’s Republic of China’s usage of reincarnation for their political gain.” 僧侣们则表达得更为直接。他们在一份声明中谴责“中华人民共和国将转世制度用于政治目的”。 David Pierson、Alexandra Alter和Amy Chang Chien对本文有报道贡献。 Mujib Mashal是《纽约时报》南亚分社社长，领导时报对印度及其周边不同地区的报道，包括孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和不丹。 Hari Kumar报道印度新闻，常驻新德里。他从事记者工作已超过20年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
EPHRAT LIVNI2025年7月3日2019年，平壤的人民大学习堂。 Ed Jones/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images The North Korean government, struggling under the weight of international sanctions, has for years seeded companies in the United States and elsewhere with remote tech workers camouflaged by false and stolen identifies to generate desperately needed revenue, federal prosecutors say. 联邦检察官表示，在国际制裁的重压下挣扎的朝鲜政府多年一直在向美国和其他国家的企业秘密派遣远程技术人员，他们利用虚假和盗用的身份为伪装，为朝鲜政权创造急需的收入。 Taking advantage of the global demand for skilled tech employees and the rise in remote employment, the North Korean regime has found a way to work around United Nations and United States sanctions imposed on it for its nuclear weapons program, the prosecutors said in two indictments unsealed in federal district courts in Massachusetts and Georgia. It has also used the access to steal both money and information, they said. 检察官在马萨诸塞州和佐治亚州联邦地方法院公布的两份起诉书中指出，朝鲜政权利用全球对熟练技术工作者的需求增长和远程就业的兴起，成功规避联合国和美国因其核武器计划而实施的制裁。起诉书说，朝鲜还利用这种途径窃取资金与情报。 “Thousands of North Korean cyber-operatives have been trained and deployed by the regime to blend into the global digital work force,” Leah Foley, the chief federal prosecutor in Massachusetts, said in announcing the charges on Monday. She called the threat “both real and immediate.” “朝鲜政权训练和部署了数以千计的网络特工，混入全球数字劳动力大军，”马萨诸塞州首席联邦检察官利亚·弗利周一在宣布这些指控时说。她称这一威胁“既真实又迫在眉睫”。 On Monday, federal law enforcement authorities took a series of actions across 16 states aimed at shutting down the scheme. Investigators seized dozens of financial accounts and fraudulent websites and searched “laptop farms” that allowed North Korean operatives to gain access to the computers that companies provide their off-site employees, prosecutors said. 周一，联邦执法当局在16个州采取了一系列行动，旨在瓦解该渗透计划。检察官表示，调查人员查封了数十个金融账户和欺诈网站，并搜查了所谓的“笔记本电脑农场”，这些农场让朝鲜特工可以接入企业远程办公电脑。 In recent years, North Korean attempts to evade sanctions using false identities have been increasingly been raising alarm. There is evidence that the operation has expanded geographically, targeting Europe in particular, according to a report from the Google Threat Intelligence Group in April. 近年来，朝鲜利用虚假身份逃避制裁的企图日益引起人们的警觉。谷歌威胁情报小组今年4月的一份报告显示，有证据表明，该行动的地域范围已经扩大，尤其瞄准了欧洲。 Last year, the Justice Department and the F.B.I. launched an initiative to identify people in the United States believed to be helping North Koreans advance the plots, some of them without their knowledge. 去年，司法部和联邦调查局发起专项行动，以查明据信在美国境内帮助朝鲜人推进这些阴谋的人，其中一些人对此并不知情。 In one of the cases brought by federal prosecutors this week, American, Chinese and Taiwanese citizens were accused of involvement in a plot that compromised about 80 American identities. The falsified identities were used to help North Koreans get remote tech jobs with over 100 companies across dozens of states in a range of industries between 2021 and 2024. 在本周联邦检察官提起的一起诉讼中，美国、中国和台湾公民被指控参与了一起套取约80个美国人身份的阴谋。这些伪造的身份被用来帮助朝鲜人在2021年至2024年期间在数十个州的100多家公司获得远程技术工作，涉及多个行业。 Prosecutors say the scheme generated about $5 million for North Korea, and cost American business some $3 million in damages and expenses. It also exposed sensitive information, including some related to military technology, they said. 检察官说，该阴谋给朝鲜带来了大约500万美元的收入，给美国企业造成了大约300万美元的损失和开支。他们还指出，此举更致使包括军事技术在内的敏感信息外泄。 The defendants are said to have used online background check services to cull personal information and create personas for the North Koreans so that they appeared authorized to work in the United States. They conducted records checks of hundreds of individuals, including dozens whose identities were stolen, prosecutors said. 据称，被告使用在线背景调查服务筛选个人信息，并为朝鲜人伪造虚假身份，使他们看起来具有在美国工作的合法资格。检察官指出，他们对数以百人的记录进行了核查，其中数十人身份信息遭盗用。 To bolster the falsified identities, participants in the scheme created fake companies, websites and bank accounts and arranged to receive the company laptops delivered to the remote workers in the United States, prosecutors said. Then, the authorities said, they granted remote access to the laptops to North Korean operatives working abroad. . 检察官说，为了支持伪造的身份，该阴谋的参与者创建了假公司、网站和银行账户，并安排接收企业交付给美国远程工作人员的笔记本电脑。然后，当局说，他们允许在国外工作的朝鲜特工远程访问这些笔记本电脑。 The second case unsealed this week, in the Northern District of Georgia, charges four North Koreans with theft and money laundering involving about $900,000 in cryptocurrency. The remote workers used false identities from Malaysia to perpetrate the scheme and worked out of the United Arab Emirates, prosecutors say. 本周在佐治亚州北部地区公布的第二起案件指控四名朝鲜人盗窃和洗钱，涉及约90万美元的加密货币。检方指出，这些远程工作人员使用马来西亚的假身份实施了这一计划，跨境运作据点设在阿联酋。 The defendants sought jobs in the crypto industry, according to the indictment. One was hired as a developer at an Atlanta-based company, and another worked for a Serbian firm. Together they diverted nearly $1 million in crypto from their employers, and their accused co-conspirators laundered the funds,, according to the indictment. 起诉书称，这些被告在加密货币行业寻找工作。一个人被亚特兰大的一家公司聘为开发人员，另一个人在一家塞尔维亚公司工作。起诉书称，他们总共从雇主那里转移了近100万美元的加密货币，而由同伙实施洗钱操作。 The American authorities have been raising alarms about the problem since at least 2022, when the F.B.I., along with the State and Treasury Departments, issued an advisory warning to the international community about infiltration. Operatives working mostly in North Korea, China and Russia were relying on an expansive network abroad to get jobs, targeting Europe and East Asia, the advisory said. 至少从2022年开始，美国当局就开始对这个问题发出警告，当时，联邦调查局联合国务院和财政部就渗透问题向国际社会发出了一份通报，提醒各方警惕渗透风险。该报告称，这些主要在朝鲜、中国和俄罗斯工作的特工依靠一个庞大的海外网络来找工作，目标是欧洲和东亚的企业和机构。 After the American warning, North Korean workers increasingly began seeking contracts elsewhere, according to an April report from a lead adviser to the Google Threat Intelligence Group in Europe, James Collier. 根据谷歌威胁情报小组驻欧洲首席顾问詹姆斯·科利尔4月的一份报告，在美国发出警告后，更多朝鲜工作人员开始向其他地方转移。 One North Korean worker ran at least 12 personas across Europe and the United States in late 2024, seeking jobs at defense companies and in governments, using fabricated references , the report says. There is also evidence of operatives and assistants working in Portugal, Germany and Britain. 报告称，2024年底，一名朝鲜工作人员在欧洲和美国至少扮演了12个角色，利用捏造的推荐信在国防承包商和政府部门寻找工作。还有证据表明，葡萄牙、德国和英国也有朝鲜工作人员与协助者从事相关行动的痕迹。 “In response to heightened awareness of the threat within the United States, they’ve established a global ecosystem of fraudulent personas to enhance operational agility,” Mr. Collier said. That evolution, he said, suggests they will continue being able to run the financing schemes. 科利尔说，“为了应对美国国内对威胁的高度警惕，他们建立了一个全球性的欺诈人物生态系统，以提高行动的灵活性。”他说，这一演变表明，他们能继续开展此类筹资活动。 Ephrat Livni是《纽约时报》记者，报道全球突发新闻。她常驻华盛顿。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
MUJIB MASHAL, HARI KUMAR2025年7月3日西藏藏传佛教的僧侣们聚集在喜马拉雅山城印度的达兰萨拉，讨论精神领袖达赖喇嘛的转世问题，中国已试图对达赖喇嘛继承人的选择进行控制。 Atul Loke for The New York Times The Dalai Lama has spent decades in exile thinking about ways to prevent the Chinese government from taking control of Tibetan Buddhism after his death and ending the struggle for Tibetan autonomy. 在流亡的数十年间，达赖喇嘛始终在思考如何防止中国政府在他圆寂后控制藏传佛教，结束西藏争取自治的斗争。 Early on, he suggested that the institution of the Dalai Lama could be ended altogether to deprive Beijing of a target to exploit. Later, he focused on how to keep the Chinese Communist Party from installing its own choice to succeed him. He floated a sharp break from precedent, saying he might transfer his spiritual powers to an adult during his lifetime to avoid the vacuum that would come with selecting a child as his reincarnation and successor. 他曾在早些时候建议彻底结束达赖喇嘛的转世制度，让中国政府没有可乘之机。后来，他把重点放在怎样阻止中国共产党指定他的继任者。他曾提出一个与先例迥然不同的想法，称他也许会在自己在世时将精神领袖的权力移交给一名成年人，以避免把一名儿童选为其转世灵童和继承人所带来的权力真空。 But on Wednesday, as senior monks filed into a much-anticipated conference in Dharamsala, India, as part of 90th birthday celebrations for the Dalai Lama, he made clear that tradition would prevail. 但周三，在印度达兰萨拉举行的一个备受期待的会议上，高僧们鱼贯而入，这是庆祝达赖喇嘛90岁生日活动的一部分，他明确表示，传统将会延续。 The institution of the Dalai Lama, he said, will continue. And his successor will be selected through the usual process of reincarnation. 他说，达赖喇嘛的转世制度将继续下去。他的继任者将通过寻找转世灵童的惯常程序来加以确定。 His decision reflected the fine line that even a modernizing Dalai Lama must tread between preserving a core element of Tibetan Buddhism and shielding it from political manipulation by Beijing. 他的决定反映了即使是致力于现代化的达赖喇嘛，也需要在维护藏传佛教的核心要素与避免其受到中国政府政治操纵之间把握微妙的分寸。 It showed the limits of his powers to reshape the institution he has towered over for more than seven decades, as well as his pragmatic understanding of Tibetans’ David-vs.-Goliath struggle against the Chinese government. 这也显示出，虽然主持藏传佛教制度70多年，但他重塑制度的权力有限，同时还表明他对藏人与中国政府之间力量悬殊的斗争有着务实的领悟。 “The issue in probably any religion, but especially a religion where you have a leader who’s modernizing, is how far can you push your community to take up a new approach,” said Robert Barnett, a scholar of Tibet at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. “也许任何宗教都会面临这样的问题，尤其是领袖希望推动现代化时，他究竟可以在多大程度上推动信众接受新的做法，”伦敦亚非学院的藏学研究者罗伯特·巴内特说。 “He may have sensed that the community wasn’t quite ready to take this new step of succession,” he added. “他可能已经感觉到，信众们还没有完全准备好接受这种继承方式上的重大变革，”巴内特补充道。 行走在达兰萨拉经幡前的僧侣，摄于周三。 Still, even as the Dalai Lama seemed to close the door on out-of-the-box ideas, he sought to lay down boundaries that would shut out an authoritarian Beijing. He made clear that his office had “sole authority” in identifying the next Dalai Lama. 尽管如此，就在达赖喇嘛似乎堵死了打破常规的想法之际，他仍试图划定一道明确的界限，以阻止威权的中国政府插手未来继任者的认定。他明确表示，达赖喇嘛的办公室是确认转世灵童的“唯一权威机构”。 “No one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,” he said in a video message to the monks. “其他任何人都无权干涉，”他在向僧侣发表的视频讲话中说。 His statement, which he read through large reading glasses from a sheet of paper he held in front of him, emphasized the consultative process through which he had reached his decision on the matter of succession. 他戴着老花镜，宣读了手中的声明，强调了他在转世灵童问题上的决定是通过协商过程做出的。 The Chinese Communist Party, which has sought to erode the influence of the Dalai Lama in Tibet, asserts that only it has the authority to choose his reincarnation, despite being committed to atheism in its ranks. 中国共产党一直寻求削弱达赖喇嘛在西藏的影响力，声称唯有中共才有权选择达赖喇嘛的转世灵童，尽管中共党员都不得信教。 The Dalai Lama fled China in 1959 after the Chinese Army invaded Tibet to bring the region under the control of the Communist Party. He has lived in India ever since, helping to establish a democracy in exile while traveling the world to advocate autonomy and cultural and religious freedom for the Tibetan people. 1959年中国军队入侵西藏，将该地区置于中共控制之下后，达赖喇嘛出走。那之后，他一直生活在印度，不仅协助建立了流亡政府的民主体系，并经常在世界各地奔走呼吁，为西藏人民争取自治以及文化和宗教自由。 The Chinese government sees the octogenarian leader as a separatist who seeks independence for Tibet, where more than six million Tibetans live. In his absence, Beijing has tried to bring elements of the Tibetan religious institution under state control. It has also worked to erase Tibetan culture in order to absorb the people into one nation united around the Communist Party. 中国政府把年近90岁的达赖喇嘛视为寻求西藏独立的分裂分子。西藏有六百多万藏人。达赖喇嘛出走后，中国政府已试图将西藏宗教制度的一些元素置于政府控制之下。为了把藏人同化到一个团结在中共领导下的国家里，中国政府一直在努力消除西藏文化。 There are clear signs that Beijing could dispute the selection of the next Dalai Lama. When the 10th Panchen Lama, Tibet’s second-highest spiritual figure, died in 1989, the Dalai Lama named the 5-year-old son of a herder as the successor. The boy and his family were kidnapped by China, and the boy — who has not been seen since — was replaced with a monk chosen by Beijing. 已有明确的迹象显示，中国政府会对下一任达赖喇嘛的选择提出异议。1989年，西藏的第二大精神领袖、第十世班禅喇嘛圆寂后，达赖喇嘛认定的继任者是一个牧民的儿子，这位继任者当时五岁。这名男童和他的家人被中国政府绑架，至今下落不明，中国政府用自己挑选的僧人取代了达赖喇嘛认定的男童。 出席会议的僧侣和高级喇嘛，这个会议是达赖喇嘛90岁生日庆祝活动的一部分。 Traditionally, the search for a new Dalai Lama begins only after the current one dies. Tibetan Buddhist leaders say they follow ancient customs of parsing mystical visions, clues left by the previous Dalai Lama and astrology to help narrow their search. In the past, search committees would travel around Tibet testing candidates to see if they showed any traits that could be deemed especially holy. 根据藏传佛教传统，寻找达赖喇嘛转世灵童的工作，只有在现任圆寂后才能开始。藏传佛教的领袖们说，他们按照古老的习俗解读神谕、前世达赖喇嘛留下的线索以及占星术缩小寻访范围。过去，寻访委员会的成员们会在西藏各地考察候选人，看他们是否展示任何可能被视为尤其神圣的特征。 This process can take years. Eventually, a child is deemed to be the previous Dalai Lama’s reincarnation. Another decade or more can pass while the child is educated and prepared for the role when he reaches maturity. 寻访过程可能需要几年时间。最终，一个小孩会被认定为前世达赖喇嘛的转世灵童。这个孩子接受教育，为成年后担任的职位做准备，还再需要十年甚至更长的时间。 The fear that China will exploit that gap has shaped the Dalai Lama’s strategy ever since he and tens of thousands of his followers went into exile. 自从达赖喇嘛和他的数万名追随者流亡海外后，一个担忧一直影响着他的策略，那就是中国可能会利用寻找和培养继承者所需的时间。 In 2011, the Dalai Lama completed a process of gradually relinquishing his political leadership role in the Tibetan exile government, a decision intended to strengthen the democratic structure of the Tibetan movement. Since then, Tibetan refugees scattered around the world have elected their political leader through a direct vote. 2011年，达赖喇嘛逐渐卸去了他在西藏流亡政府担任的政治领导职务，做出这个决定的目的是加强西藏流亡政府的民主结构。那之后，分散在世界各地的西藏难民通过直接投票来选出他们的政治领袖。 Lobsang Tenzin, the second-most-senior leader of the trust that will oversee reincarnation matters, who is known by his religious title of Samdhong Rinpoche, said the Dalai Lama had weighed the future of the institution for decades but over time found that Tibetan people favored preserving it. 负责寻找、认证转世神童的信托基金的二号负责人、法号桑东仁波切的洛桑丹增说，达赖喇嘛几十年来一直在考虑转世制度的未来，但随着时间的推移，他发现西藏人民倾向于保留这个制度。 Analysts said that was consistent with the image the Dalai Lama has cultivated as a democrat who seeks consultation. While the approach may be his nature, it also makes a clear contrast with authoritarian China, they said. 分析人士表示，这与达赖喇嘛一直以来塑造的形象是一致的——一位重视协商和共识的民主领袖。他们说，虽然寻求协商也许是他的天性，但这种做法也与威权中国形成鲜明对比。 “Today’s message,” Samdhong Rinpoche said at a news conference in Dharamsala, “is that the Dalai Lama institution will continue — that after the 14th Dalai Lama, there will be a 15th Dalai Lama, there will be a 16th Dalai Lama.” 桑东仁波切在达兰萨拉的新闻发布会上说：“今天的信息是，达赖喇嘛的转世制度将继续延续下去：第十四世达赖喇嘛之后，还会有第十五世达赖喇嘛，也会有第十六世达赖喇嘛。” He did not say how the Dalai Lama planned to shield the reincarnation process from Chinese interference. He also declined to say whether the Dalai Lama’s statement emphasizing the traditional process of reincarnation now ruled out his earlier suggestions about breaking with precedents. 桑东仁波切没有说达赖喇嘛打算如何保护转世程序不受中国的干预，也拒绝说达赖喇嘛强调传统转世程序的声明是否意味着否定了他以前有关打破先例的建议。 “When the time comes, he will give instructions,” Samdhong Rinpoche said, referring to reincarnation. “他将在适当的时候给出指示，”桑东仁波切在谈到转世问题时说。 桑东仁波切（左）是负责寻找转世灵童的信托基金的二号领导人，图为他和西藏流亡政府政治领导人边巴次仁在周三会议后举行记者会。 Among Tibetans in Dharamsala, there was little surprise over the Dalai Lama’s announced position. 达兰萨拉的藏人对达赖喇嘛宣布的立场并不感到意外。 Tenzin Thupten, 51, a monk who left Tibet in the 1980s, said the Dalai Lama had been consistent about why the Chinese Communist Party had no right to influence a decision over his reincarnation. 51岁的僧人丹增图登是上世纪80年代离开西藏的。他说，达赖喇嘛在中共为什么无权干涉转世决定上的立场是一致的。 “If they don’t believe in God, in religion, who will believe their choice?” he said. “如果他们不信神，没有宗教信仰，谁会相信他们的选择呢？”他问道。 Tenzin Woeser, 24, and Tenzin Chime, 20, siblings who were born in Dharamsala and migrated to New York as children, were on their first trip back and had stopped by the Dalai Lama temple. 24岁的丹增唯色和20岁的丹增奇美是兄妹，他们出生在达兰萨拉，幼时随家人移民纽约。这是他们第一次回达兰萨拉，顺路来看看达赖喇嘛的寺庙。 “There is a major consensus in the diaspora that the next Dalai Lama will be from outside China,” Tenzin Woeser said. The Dalai Lama himself has said that his successor will be someone born in a free country. “海外藏人中有一个主要的共识，那就是下一任达赖喇嘛将来自中国以外的地方，”丹增唯色说。达赖喇嘛本人也曾说，他的继任者将出生在一个自由国家。 He did not repeat that principle in his address on Wednesday. Mr. Barnett, the analyst, said that appeared to give the Dalai Lama some room for last-ditch negotiations with China. 他在周三的讲话中没有重申这个原则。分析人士巴内特说，这似乎给达赖喇嘛留下了与中国进行最后谈判的空间。 Mr. Barnett said that moderates within the Chinese system may think that “it is not really a good idea if we haven’t got a settlement with him before he dies.” 巴内特说，中国体制内的温和派人士可能会觉得，“如果没有在他去世前达成协议，恐非明智之举。” Millions of Tibetans have been deprived of seeing their spiritual leader for over half a century, and the prospect that he could die in exile poses challenges for the Chinese authorities that they could struggle to contain. 数百万藏人已有半个多世纪被剥夺了看到他们精神领袖的机会，如果达赖喇嘛在流亡中去世，可能给中国当局带来难以控制的挑战。 The political leader of the exiled Tibetan administration, Penpa Tsering, has acknowledged the existence of back-channel talks, but has cautioned against finding too much hope in them. 西藏流亡政府的政治领导人边巴次仁承认了谈判在通过秘密渠道进行，但也警告，不要对谈判抱太大希望。 Mr. Barnett said that Chinese officials’ position on reincarnation was once more moderate, in which they “only required a right to confirm a choice made” by senior Tibetan monks. But they took a more hard-line turn in the 1990s. 巴内特说，中国官员曾在转世问题上持比较温和的立场，他们对西藏高级僧侣选出来的灵童“只要求有认定权”。但他们在20世纪90年代转向了更强硬的立场。 If they went back to that kind of moderate approach, it could create a lot of room for talks, he said. 如果他们愿意回到以前的温和立场，那将会给谈判制造很大的空间，巴内特说。 “If there was political will from China, it is not that hard,” he said. “如果中国有政治意愿的话，谈判不会很难，”他说。 Amy Chang Chien自台北对本文有报道贡献。 Mujib Mashal是《纽约时报》南亚分社社长，负责领导时报对印度及其周边不同地区的报道，包括孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和不丹。 Hari Kumar负责报道印度新闻，常驻新德里。他从事记者工作已超过20年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID GELLES, SOMINI SENGUPTA, KEITH BRADSHER, BRAD PLUMER2025年7月2日 Gilles Sabrié and J. Emilio Flores for The New York Times In China, more wind turbines and solar panels were installed last year than in the rest of the world combined. And China’s clean energy boom is going global. Chinese companies are building electric vehicle and battery factories in Brazil, Thailand, Morocco, Hungary and beyond. 在中国，去年安装的风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板比世界其他地区的总和还要多。中国的清洁能源热潮正在走向全球。中国企业正在巴西、泰国、摩洛哥、匈牙利等地建设电动汽车和电池工厂。 At the same time, in the United States, President Trump is pressing Japan and South Korea to invest “trillions of dollars” in a project to ship natural gas to Asia. And General Motors just killed plans to make electric motors at a factory near Buffalo, N.Y., and instead will put $888 million into building V-8 gasoline engines there. 与此同时，在美国，特朗普总统在向日本和韩国施压，要求它们投资“数万亿美元”建设一个向亚洲运输天然气的项目。通用汽车刚刚取消了在纽约州布法罗附近的一家工厂生产电动车的计划，转而投资8.88亿美元，在那里生产V-8汽油发动机。 The race is on to define the future of energy. Even as the dangers of global warming hang ominously over the planet, two of the most powerful countries in the world, the United States and China, are pursuing energy strategies defined mainly by economic and national security concerns, as opposed to the climate crisis. Entire industries are at stake, along with the economic and geopolitical alliances that shape the modern world. 定义能源未来的竞赛已经开始。尽管全球变暖的危险不祥地笼罩着地球，但世界上最强大的两个国家——美国和中国——正在推行的能源战略主要由经济和国家安全考虑决定，而不是气候危机。这关系到整个产业，乃至塑造现代世界的经济和地缘政治联盟。 The Trump administration wants to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels like oil and gas, which have powered cars and factories, warmed homes and fueled empires for more than a century. The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and the largest exporter of natural gas, offering the potential for what Mr. Trump has called an era of American “energy dominance” that eliminates dependence on foreign countries, particularly rival powers like China. 特朗普政府希望让世界继续依赖石油和天然气等化石燃料，一个多世纪以来，这些燃料驱动着汽车和工厂，为家庭供暖，为帝国的运转提供动力。美国是世界上最大的石油生产国和天然气出口国，这为特朗普所说的美国“能源主导”时代的到来提供了可能，这将消除对外国的依赖，尤其是对中国等竞争对手的依赖。 China is racing in an altogether different direction. It’s banking on a world that runs on cheap electricity from the sun and wind, and that relies on China for affordable, high-tech solar panels and turbines. China, unlike the United States, doesn’t have much easily accessible oil or gas of its own, so it is eager to eliminate dependence on imported fossil fuels and instead power more of its economy with renewables. 中国正朝着完全不同的方向前进。它寄望于一个依靠廉价太阳能和风能发电的世界，而这个世界依赖于中国提供价格合理的高科技太阳能电池板和涡轮机。与美国不同的是，中国自身没有多少容易获得的石油或天然气，因此它渴望消除对进口化石燃料的依赖，转而更多地利用可再生能源为其经济提供动力。 The dangers for China of relying on politically unstable regions for energy were underscored recently when Israel attacked Iran, which sells practically all its oil exports to China. 最近遭到以色列攻击的伊朗几乎所有的石油出口都卖给了中国。这凸显出中国依赖政治不稳定地区获取能源的危险。 While China still burns more coal than the rest of the world and emits more climate pollution than the United States and Europe combined, its pivot to cleaner alternatives is happening at breakneck speed. Not only does China already dominate global manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, E.V.s and many other clean energy industries, but with each passing month it is widening its technological lead. 尽管中国燃烧的煤炭仍比世界上其他国家多，排放的气候污染物也比美国和欧洲加起来还要多，但中国正在以极快的速度转向更清洁的能源。中国不仅已在太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机、电池、电动汽车和许多其他清洁能源产业的全球制造中占据主导地位，而且随着时间的推移，中国还在不断扩大其技术领先优势。 资料来源：联合国商品贸易统计数据库（注：数据来自2023年） China’s biggest automaker, its biggest battery maker and its biggest electronics company have each introduced systems that can recharge electric cars in just five minutes, all but erasing one of the most annoying hassles of E.V.s, the long charging times. China has nearly 700,000 clean energy patents, more than half of the world's total. Beijing’s rise as a clean power behemoth is altering economies and shifting alliances in emerging countries as far afield as Pakistan and Brazil. 中国最大的汽车制造商、最大的电池制造商和最大的电子公司分别推出了可以在五分钟内给电动汽车充满电的系统，这几乎消除了电动汽车最恼人的问题之一——充电时间过长。中国拥有近70万项清洁能源专利，占世界总数的一半以上。中国作为清洁能源巨头崛起正在改变经济格局，并改变它与巴基斯坦和巴西等新兴国家的盟友关系。 The country is also taking steps that could make it hard for other countries, particularly the United States, to catch up. In April, Beijing restricted the export of powerful “rare earth” magnets, a business China dominates, unless they’re already inside fully assembled products like electric vehicles or wind turbines. While China recently started issuing some export licenses for the magnets, the moves signal that the world may face a choice: Buy China’s green energy technology, or do without. 中国还在采取措施，可能使其他国家——特别是美国——难以赶上它。今年4月，北京限制了中国主导的强力“稀土”磁铁的出口，除非它们已经安装在电动汽车或风力涡轮机等完全组装的产品中。虽然中国最近开始发放一些磁铁出口许可证，但此举表明，世界可能面临一个选择：要么购买中国的绿色能源技术，要么就别用这些磁铁。 China has also begun to dominate nuclear power, a highly technical field once indisputably led by the United States. China not only has 31 reactors under construction, nearly as many as the rest of the world combined, but has announced advances in next-generation nuclear technologies and also in fusion, the long-promised source of all-but-limitless clean energy that has bedeviled science for years. 中国还开始主导核能，这是一个曾经无可争议地由美国主导的高技术领域。中国有31座在建反应堆，几乎是世界上其他国家的总和，而且还宣布在下一代核技术和核聚变方面取得进展。核聚变多年来一直被认为有望成为一种几乎取之不尽的清洁能源，但科学上始终未能实现。 “China is huge,” said Praveer Sinha, chief executive of Tata Power, an Indian conglomerate that makes solar panels in a high-tech factory near the southern tip of the country but relies almost entirely on Chinese-made silicon to make those panels. “Huge means huge. No one in the world can compete with that.” “中国很强大，”印度塔塔电力的首席执行官普拉维尔·辛哈说。塔塔电力是一家印度企业集团，在该国南端附近的一家高科技工厂生产太阳能电池板，但几乎完全依赖中国制造的硅来生产。“是货真价实的强大。世界上没有人能与之竞争。” While China is dominating clean energy industries, from patented technologies to essential raw materials, the Trump administration is using the formidable clout of the world’s biggest economy to keep American oil and gas flowing. 在中国主导从专利技术到基本原材料的清洁能源行业的同时，特朗普政府正在利用世界最大经济体的强大影响力，来维持美国的石油和天然气供应。 In a full reversal from the Biden administration’s effort to pivot the American economy away from fossil fuels, the Trump White House is opening up public lands and federal waters for new drilling, fast-tracking permits for pipelines and pressuring other countries to buy American fuels as a way of avoiding tariffs. 与拜登政府让美国经济远离化石燃料的努力完全相反，特朗普的白宫正在开放公共土地和联邦水域，以进行新的钻探、为输油管道提供快速审批，并向其他国家施压，要求它们购买美国燃料，以避免关税。 Washington is essentially pursuing a strong-arm energy strategy, both at home and abroad with allies and friends. It’s premised on the idea that the modern world is already designed around these fuels, and the United States has them in abundance, so exporting them benefits the American economy even if solar energy is cleaner and often cheaper. 无论是在国内还是在国外，华盛顿都在对盟友和朋友实施强势能源战略。它的前提是，现代世界已经围绕这些燃料而设计，而美国拥有丰富的储备，因此出口它们有利于美国经济，即使太阳能更清洁，往往更便宜。 资料来源：联合国商品贸易统计数据库（注：数据来自2023年） The competition between the United States and China to sell the world their wares has serious consequences for the health of the planet. 美国和中国竞相向世界推销自己的商品，这对地球的健康造成了严重后果。 Burning fossil fuels for more than 200 years has helped create the modern world while delivering great prosperity to developed countries such as the United States, which ranks historically as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. But it has also led to what scientists now say is a growing crisis. The carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere by the burning of oil, gas and coal acts as a heat-trapping blanket, leading to rapid global warming. 200多年来，化石燃料帮助创造了现代世界，同时也为美国等发达国家带来了巨大的繁荣，而美国历来是最大的温室气体排放国。但化石燃料也导致了科学家们所说的日益严重的危机。燃烧石油、天然气和煤炭排放到大气中的二氧化碳就像一个吸热毯，导致全球迅速变暖。 Cheap Chinese-made solar, batteries and E.V.s have made the pivot to cleaner technologies possible for many large economies including Brazil, South Africa and even India, a regional rival to Beijing. That affordability is crucial for bringing down global emissions. 中国制造的廉价太阳能、电池和电动汽车使许多大型经济体转向更清洁的技术成为可能，其中包括巴西、南非，甚至是中国的地区竞争对手印度。这种可负担性对于降低全球排放至关重要。 The scientific consensus is that warming, if unchecked, will continue to cause increasingly severe droughts and storms, potentially alter ocean currents and global weather patterns, disrupt food production, deepen a biodiversity crisis and inundate some of the world’s biggest cities as sea levels rise, among other risks. 科学界的共识是，如果不加以控制，变暖将继续导致日益严重的干旱和风暴，可能改变洋流和全球天气模式，扰乱粮食生产，加深生物多样性危机，随着海平面上升，世界上一些最大的城市会被淹没，此外还有其他风险。 The Trump administration has dismissed those concerns. The United States energy secretary, Chris Wright, a former natural gas executive, has described climate change as “a side effect of building the modern world.” 特朗普政府驳斥了这些担忧。曾在天然气行业担任高管的美国能源部长克里斯·赖特将气候变化描述为“建设现代世界的一个副作用”。 Asked about the diverging energy pathways of China and the United States, Ben Dietderich, a Department of Energy spokesman, said, “The United States is blessed with an abundant supply of energy resources and the Trump administration is committed to fully utilizing them to meet the growing energy needs of the American people.” Past efforts to encourage cleaner energy like solar or wind, he said, “harmed America’s energy security.” 在被问及中美两国不同的能源发展路径时，美国能源部发言人本·迪特里奇说，“美国有幸拥有丰富的能源资源，特朗普政府致力于充分利用这些资源，以满足美国人民日益增长的能源需求。”他说，过去鼓励太阳能或风能等清洁能源的努力“损害了美国的能源安全”。 Amanda Eversole, executive vice president of the American Petroleum Institute, which lobbies for fossil fuel companies, said her organization monitored Chinese advances and that she was downplaying their strategic threat. “We continue to keep a very close eye on what the Chinese are doing, because we believe it’s in our national security interests and our economic interest to continue to dominate from an American energy perspective,” she said. 为化石燃料公司游说的美国石油协会执行副总裁阿曼达·埃弗索尔说，她的组织监控了中国的进展，她淡化了中国的战略威胁。她说：“我们继续密切关注中国在做什么，因为我们相信，从美国能源的角度来看，继续占据主导地位符合我们的国家安全利益和经济利益。” The White House declined to comment on energy strategy and China’s advances. 白宫拒绝就能源战略和中国的进步发表评论。 Most of the world’s energy still comes from fossil fuels. Yet as countries try to address the perils of climate change, they’ve been steadily adopting cleaner alternatives. By 2035, solar and wind power are expected to become the two largest sources of electricity production, surpassing coal and natural gas, according to the International Energy Agency. 世界上大部分的能源仍然来自化石燃料。然而，为了应对气候变化的危险，各国一直在稳步采用更清洁的替代品。根据国际能源署的数据，到2035年，太阳能和风能预计将超过煤炭和天然气，成为全球最大的两大电力来源。 As the cost of renewables keeps falling, the U.S. strategy may leave China poised to capitalize on the world’s growing appetite for not only cleaner but cheaper power. 随着可再生能源的成本不断下降，美国的战略可能会助力中国，使其从世界日益增长的清洁、廉价能源需求中获利。 “The U.S. will champion a fossil fuel economy, and China will become the leader of the low-carbon economy,” said Li Shuo, who heads the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “The question for the U.S. now is, where do you go from here?” “美国将支持化石燃料经济，而中国将成为低碳经济的领导者，”亚洲协会政策研究所中国气候中心主任李硕说。“美国现在面临的问题是，从现在开始要往哪个方向走？” How America Lost Its Lead 美国是如何失去领先地位的 The United States had every opportunity to lead the world in renewables. In fact, it once did. 美国完全有机会在可再生能源领域引领世界。事实上，它曾经做到过这一点。 Americans created the first practical silicon photovoltaic cells in the 1950s and the first rechargeable lithium-metal batteries in the 1970s. The world’s first wind farm was built in New Hampshire nearly 50 years ago. Jimmy Carter installed solar panels on the White House in 1979. 美国人在20世纪50年代发明了第一块实用的硅光伏电池，在70年代发明了第一块可充电的锂金属电池。近50年前，世界上第一个风力发电场于新罕布什尔州建成。1979年，吉米·卡特在白宫安装了太阳能电池板。 But with oil, gas and coal in abundant supply, and the fossil-fuel industry funding efforts to downplay climate concerns, America’s commitment to promoting clean energy investment has ebbed and flowed, sometimes dramatically. 但是，由于石油、天然气和煤炭供应充足，化石燃料行业又资助各种淡化气候问题的活动，美国对促进清洁能源投资的承诺时好时坏，有时甚至是大起大落。 1979年，吉米·卡特总统在白宫屋顶上参加了一场活动，当时他身后的太阳能电池板已经安装完毕。 For example, in 2009, the Obama administration began offering loan guarantees to emerging energy technologies. Tesla got $456 million, a loan that proved crucial to its later success. 例如，2009年，奥巴马政府开始为新兴能源技术提供贷款担保。特斯拉获得了4.56亿美元的贷款，这笔贷款对特斯拉后来的成功至关重要。 Then there was Solyndra. 但也有Solyndra公司这样的例子。 A maker of solar cells, Solyndra received a federal guarantee for loans totaling $528 million, then went out of business, leaving taxpayers on the hook. More than a decade has passed, yet critics of American efforts to promote clean energy still cite Solyndra as evidence of the folly of renewables. Solyndra公司是一家太阳能电池制造商，获得了总计5.28亿美元的联邦贷款担保，然后它倒闭了，让纳税人陷入困境。十多年过去了，批评美国推动清洁能源的人仍然把Solyndra作为可再生能源愚蠢的证据。 Chinese officials have been mystified by the Solyndra fixation. 关于美国对Solyndra的执着，中国官员一直感到困惑。 “You are a little bit worried by Solyndra? Very small companies, why are you worried?” Li Junfeng, a key architect of China’s wind and solar policies, said in a 2017 interview. Beijing had a bigger appetite for taking risks, which meant sometimes failing, but also sometimes reaping bigger payoffs. “你们对Solyndra过于担心了；很小的公司，你们为什么那么担心呢？”中国风能和太阳能政策的关键设计者李俊峰在2017年的采访中说。北京更喜欢冒险，这意味着有时会失败，但有时也会收获更大的回报。 China’s goal of dominating clean energy technology wasn’t about climate change. It was born in a moment of strategic self-awareness two decades ago, when the country’s leaders looked to the future and understood that controlling energy production was vital to national security. 中国主导清洁能源技术的目标与气候变化无关。它诞生于20年前的一次战略觉醒，当时中国领导人展望未来，明白控制能源生产对国家安全至关重要。 In 2003, Wen Jiabao became China’s premier, the country’s second-highest position. A rare-earths geologist, Mr. Wen saw energy policy as both a business opportunity and geopolitical necessity. 2003年，温家宝成为中国总理——该国的第二高官。作为一名稀土地质学家，温家宝认为能源政策既是商机，也是地缘政治的需要。 2003年，中国清洁能源转型的推动者温家宝在全国人民代表大会上发言。 China had become dependent on imported oil. It felt vulnerable to upheavals in the Middle East and to the control of shipping lanes by the United States and India, two sometimes hostile powers. 当时中国已开始依赖进口石油。面对中东的动荡，以及美国和印度这两个时有敌意的大国对航道的控制，它感到很容易受到影响。 Air pollution in China was terrible, killing people and creating a global embarrassment with images of cities smothered in gray. And the economy still relied on relatively unskilled manufacturing. Mr. Wen saw in energy a chance to solve both problems by making China an energy innovator. 中国的空气污染非常严重，造成了人员死亡，城市笼罩在灰色之中的画面令它在全球面前感到颜面无光。此外，当时中国经济仍然依赖于技术含量相对较低的制造业。温家宝从能源领域看到了解决这两个问题的机会，使中国成为能源创新者。 “Instead of making flip-flops, they’d make clean tech,” said Jennifer Turner, director of the China environment program at the Woodrow Wilson Center. 伍德罗·威尔逊中心中国环境项目主任詹妮弗·特纳说：“他们想制造清洁技术，而不是人字拖。” Mr. Wen’s government essentially wrote a blank check. 温家宝政府实际上开出了一张空白支票。 China provided hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to wind, solar and electric car manufacturers while protecting its markets from foreign competitors. It established a global near-monopoly over many key raw materials, such as cobalt for batteries. 中国向风能、太阳能和电动汽车制造商提供了数千亿美元的补贴，同时保护自己的市场不受外国竞争对手的影响。中国在全球范围内几乎垄断了许多关键原材料，如电池用的钴。 Low-cost electricity from heavily polluting coal plants allowed the country to run aluminum smelters and polysilicon factories more cheaply than anywhere else. Critics have also accused China of using forced labor in places like Xinjiang to drive down costs, though China denies this. 来自污染严重的煤电厂的低成本电力使中国能够以比其他任何地方都低的成本经营铝冶炼厂和多晶硅工厂。批评人士还指责中国在新疆等地使用强迫劳动来降低成本，尽管中国对此予以否认。 At the same time, China has invested in research and a skilled workforce. These moves offered Chinese clean energy companies a level of sustained support that was nonexistent in the United States. 与此同时，中国在研究和技术劳动力方面进行了投资。这些举措为中国的清洁能源公司提供了美国所没有的持续支持。 “It’s hard to get China to commit to a long-term goal,” said Jian Pan, co-chairman of CATL, the world’s largest maker of batteries for electric vehicles and electric grids. “But when we commit, we really want to get it done, and all aspects of society — government, policy, private sector, engineering, everybody — work hard toward the same goal under a coordinated effort.” “让中国投入到一个长期目标上是很难的，”全球最大的电动汽车和电网用电池制造商宁德时代联合董事长潘健表示。“但是，一旦投入，我们会真的希望完成它，社会的各个方面，包括政府、政策、私营部门、工程、每个人，都在协调一致的努力下朝着同一个目标努力。” China’s efforts paid off. 中国的努力得到了回报。 Little more than a decade ago, CATL was a start-up created to buy a Japanese electronics company’s nascent electric-car battery division. Today, from its headquarters, which are shaped like an enormous battery, it operates a global network of mines, chemical processors and factories. Its founder is one of the wealthiest people in the world. 十多年前，宁德时代还是一家为收购日本一家电子公司的新兴电动汽车电池部门而成立的新公司。如今，在其形似巨大电池的总部，公司运营着一个由矿山、化学加工厂和工厂组成的全球网络。该公司创始人是世界上最富有的人之一。 中国宁波，极氪电动汽车工厂里的机器人。 Over that same short stretch of time, China came to dominate even clean energy industries the United States had once led. In 2008 the United States produced nearly half of the world’s polysilicon, a crucial material for solar panels. Today, China produces more than 90 percent. China’s auto industry is now widely seen as the most innovative in the world, besting the Japanese, the Germans and the Americans. 在同样短的时间内，中国甚至主宰了美国一度领先的清洁能源产业。2008年，美国生产了世界上近一半的多晶硅，多晶硅是太阳能电池板的关键材料。如今，中国的生产份额超过90%。中国的汽车工业现在被广泛认为是世界上最具创新力的，超过了日本、德国和美国。 To slash manufacturing costs, China has automated its factories, installing more robots each year from 2021 through 2023 than the rest of the world combined, and seven times as many as the United States. 为了削减制造成本，中国实现了工厂的自动化，从2021年到2023年，中国每年安装的机器人数量超过了世界其他国家的总和，是美国的七倍。 Eric Luo, vice-president of LONGi Green Energy Technology, a Chinese solar panel maker, said that a practice known as “cluster manufacturing” had proved beneficial. “There are places where, within a three- to four-hour drive, you can have everything,” he said. The components, the manufacturer, the skilled workforce, everything. “There’s nowhere else globally where you can have all that innovation clustered together.” 中国太阳能电池板制造商隆基绿能副总裁罗鑫表示，被称为“集群制造”的做法被证明是有益的。“有些地方，你可以在三、四个小时车程范围内得到所需的一切，”他说。组件，制造商，熟练的劳动力，应有尽有。“全球没有其他地方可以将所有创新集中在一起。” Clustering also imparts huge benefits in the car battery business. Robin Zeng, CATL’s founder, said in an interview last summer that it costs six times as much to build a battery factory in the United States as in China, and that was before the Trump administration set out to weaken the financial incentives to build such plants in the United States. 集群也给汽车电池行业带来了巨大的好处。宁德时代创始人曾毓群去年夏天在接受采访时表示，在美国建一家电池工厂的成本是在中国的六倍，而这还是在特朗普政府着手削弱在美国建厂的经济激励措施之前。 Beyond its domination of manufacturing and technology, China has also gone on an epic clean-energy building spree. 除了在制造业和技术方面的主导地位，中国还掀起了一场大规模的清洁能源建设热潮。 Last June, the Urumqi solar farm, the largest in the world, came online in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region in China. It is capable of generating more power than some small countries need to run their entire economies. 去年6月，乌鲁木齐太阳能发电场——全球规模最大的光伏项目——在新疆维吾尔自治区并网发电。它的发电能力足以满足一些小国家的全部经济需求。 It’s hardly an anomaly. The other 10 largest solar facilities in the world are also in China, and even bigger ones are planned. The Chinese automaker BYD is currently building not one but two electric vehicle factories that will each produce twice as many cars as the largest car factory in the world, a Volkswagen plant in Germany. 这绝非个例。世界上另外10个最大的太阳能设施也都在中国，甚至还有更大的项目正在规划中。中国汽车制造商比亚迪目前正在建造的电动汽车工厂——不是一座而是两座——每座的产量都将是世界最大汽车厂（位于德国的一家大众汽车工厂）的两倍。 The United States was slow to see the full picture. Only toward the end of the Obama administration and during the first Trump administration did many Washington policymakers realize they had surrendered so much of the clean energy race to China. 美国迟迟未能看清全局。直到奥巴马政府末期和特朗普首个任期，许多华盛顿的决策者才意识到，他们在清洁能源竞赛中已经将大部分优势拱手让给了中国。 “The U.S. was asleep,” said Michael Carr, a former staff member at the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee who is now executive director of Solar Energy Manufacturers for America, a trade group. “You can invent the greatest tech in the world, but if you don’t know how to manufacture it, it won’t matter.” “美国沉睡了太久，”前参议院能源和自然资源委员会幕僚、现任美国太阳能制造商协会执行董事的迈克尔·卡尔说，“纵使能发明顶尖技术，如果缺乏制造能力，终归还是徒劳。” Of course, the United States could reverse course. A future administration could aggressively swing once again to clean energy research and investment. 当然，美国可以扭转航向。未来的政府可以再度发力清洁能源的研究和投资。 But it will have lost precious time. Investments made years ago by China are paying off now, and Beijing is continuing to pour money into developing its domestic energy industry and exporting those goods to the world. 但宝贵时机已然错失。中国多年前的投资正在获得回报，北京仍在持续加码国内能源产业发展的投入，并将相关产品推向全球市场。 Beijing’s ‘Soft Power’ Ambitions 北京的“软实力”野心 Among China’s biggest green-energy customers is a petrostate, Saudi Arabia. On desert land renowned for its boundless oil reserves, Chinese companies are building one of the world’s largest battery-storage projects alongside solar farms. 沙特阿拉伯这个石油王国竟成为了中国绿色能源的最大客户之一。在这片以无尽石油储量闻名的沙漠地带，中国企业正在建设世界上最大的电池储能项目之一，同时还有与之配套的太阳能发电场。 Around the world, Beijing is using its clean energy clout to build or expand political and economic relationships. 在世界各地，北京正在利用其清洁能源的影响力来建立或扩大政经关系。 Both the United States and China not only see energy independence as essential at home, but understand that supplying other countries with energy is a vital way to project power. And yet, their approaches couldn’t be more different. 美中两国不仅视能源自主为立国之本，而且明白向其他国家供应能源是投射力量的重要方式。然而，两国的做法却截然不同。 Today, China’s dominance of so many clean energy industries is enabling it to expand its sphere of influence by selling and financing energy technology around the world. These relationships allow China to forge multidecade financial, cultural and even military ties at a moment of shifting geopolitical alliances. 如今，中国在多个清洁能源领域居于主导地位，这使其能够通过在全球销售和资助能源技术来扩大其影响力范围。在地缘政治格局不断变化之际，这些关系使中国能够建立持续数十年甚至更长时间的金融、文化乃至军事联系。 The projects read like a world atlas. Beijing is working on deals to supply nuclear reactors to countries like Turkey that once did business mainly with the United States and Europe. In Pakistan, China is already building what will be the country’s largest nuclear plant. 这些项目仿佛形成了一张世界地图。北京正向土耳其等传统欧美客户供应核反应堆。在巴基斯坦，中国已经在建设该国最大的核电站。 Chinese firms are building wind turbines in Brazil and electric vehicles in Indonesia. In northern Kenya, Chinese developers have erected Africa’s biggest wind farm. And across the continent, in countries rich with minerals needed for clean energy technologies, such as Zambia, Chinese financing for all sorts of projects has left some governments deeply in debt to Chinese banks. 中国企业正在巴西建造风力涡轮机，在印度尼西亚生产电动车。在肯尼亚北部建成了非洲最大的风力发电场。而在非洲各地，比如赞比亚等富含清洁能源技术所需矿产的国家，中国为各种项目提供的融资使多国政府深陷对华债务。 Since 2023, Chinese companies have announced $168 billion in foreign investments in clean energy manufacturing, generation and transmission, according to Climate Energy Finance, a research group. 根据研究机构气候能源金融的数据，自2023年以来，中国企业宣布的在海外清洁能源制造、发电和输电领域的投资达到1680亿美元。 来源：气候能源金融（CEF） 注：圆形大小按投资价值确定。“其他”包括水电项目、输配电网络以及绿色氢能。 “They are dominating these markets,” said Dr. Turner of the Woodrow Wilson Center. “And market dominance can be a form of soft power.” “他们正在主导这些市场，”伍德罗·威尔逊中心的特纳说，“而市场主导权就是一种软实力。” The Trump administration is taking a different road. By dismantling a vast network of foreign aid programs, it has abandoned America’s longstanding strategy for projecting soft power. 特朗普政府正在走一条不同的道路。通过取消庞大的对外援助项目网络，它已经放弃了美国投射软实力的长期战略。 In its place it is taking a more transactional approach with other countries. In Saudi Arabia, for example, while the Chinese are building a battery project there, the United States recently agreed to a major arms sale, and an American company agreed to set up rare-earth mining, processing and magnet manufacturing. And it is moving aggressively to sell other countries more fossil fuels. 取而代之的是一种更具交易性的往来。例如，在沙特阿拉伯，当中方正在当地建设一个电池项目时，美国最近批准了一项重大的军售，还有一家美国企业同意在那里建立稀土开采、加工和磁铁制造项目。美国还在积极推动向其他国家销售更多的化石燃料。 Mr. Trump, who last year accepted more than $75 million in campaign donations from oil and gas executives, promised to “drill, baby, drill” and deliver an era of “energy dominance.” In his first few months he has tried to clear the way for more exports and to nudge foreign governments to buy more American gas. 去年收取油气巨头超7500万美元政治献金的特朗普，承诺开启“钻探吧，宝贝，钻探吧”（指油气能源开采。——译注）主导的能源时代。上任数月即扫清出口障碍，敦促外国政府增加购买美国天然气。 Ukraine, for example, is desperate to maintain military supplies from the United States and has signaled it would buy more American gas. It’s another example of the administration’s aggressive approach, even with friends. 连乌克兰这样急需美国军援的国家，也不得不表态将购买更多美国天然气。这再次印证本届政府即使对盟友也采取强势策略。 America gets “geopolitical leverage from oil and gas,” said Varun Sivaram, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who helped write clean energy policy for the Biden administration. “The energy transition is actually very bad for the United States,” he said, “because we cede geopolitical and economic ground to a rival in China.” “油气赋予美国地缘政治杠杆，”曾为拜登政府起草清洁能源政策的外交关系委员会研究员瓦伦·西瓦拉姆坦言。“能源转型实际上对美国非常不利，因为我们把地缘政治和经济阵地拱手让给了中国这个竞争对手。” What Will the World Buy? 世界将购买什么？ The future is being defined one deal at a time. The United States is pressing South Korea and Japan to buy more Alaskan natural gas and invest in a huge, longshot pipeline project there. China has been demanding that the European Union allow electric cars from China into its large market, although that could cause widespread job losses in Europe’s own car industry. 未来格局正由一个个具体交易塑造。美国施压韩日购买阿拉斯加天然气，投资那里的一个前景不明的巨型管道项目。中国则要求欧盟向中国电动车开放市场——此举可能导致欧洲汽车业大规模失业。 There is unlikely to be an immediate winner in this global race. The world is only becoming more energy-hungry, stoking an appetite for both solar panels and oil, nuclear and natural gas. 这场全球竞赛不太可能立即分出胜负。世界对能源的需求只会越来越大，太阳能电池板与石油、核能及天然气均不可或缺。 That may work well both for Beijing and for Washington in the short term. The United States still has many customers for its enormous stores of oil, gas and coal. Roughly 80 percent of global energy needs are still met by fossil fuels. 短期内，这可能对北京和华盛顿都有利。美国庞大的油气煤储备仍有众多买家，全球约80%的能源需求仍依赖化石燃料。 But that proportion is widely expected to decline. The International Energy Agency forecasts that by midcentury, oil, gas and coal will fall below 60 percent of global energy needs. 但普遍预计该比例将出现下降。国际能源署预测，到本世纪中叶，化石燃料在全球能源需求中所占比例将降至60%以下。 And China is positioned to pick up the extra business. 而中国已准备好接下这些多出来的生意。 “When the federal government of the United States decides to go out of the race, it doesn’t stop the race,” said Rafael Dubeux, a senior official in Brazil’s Finance Ministry. “Other countries keep moving.” “当美国政府决定退赛时，竞赛并不会因此而停止，”巴西财政部高级官员拉斐尔·杜贝克斯说。“其他国家仍在前进。” 山西一处旧煤矿附近的太阳能电池板。 David Gelles自纽约、Somini Sengupta自巴西利亚和印度蒂鲁内尔维利、Keith Bradsher自北京、Brad Plumer自华盛顿报道。 设计制作：Joyco Ho 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DEVLIN BARRETT2025年7月2日其中一名被告参观了美国海军亚伯拉罕·林肯号，图为这艘航母2019年在阿拉伯海。 Bryan Denton for The New York Times The Justice Department announced charges on Tuesday against two Chinese citizens accused of trying to gather military information and help recruit sources from within the U.S. Navy. 司法部周二宣布对两名中国公民提起指控，他们被控试图收集军事信息，并帮助从美国海军内部招募线人。 Yuance Chen, 38, of Oregon, and Liren Lai, 39, a Chinese citizen in the United States on a tourist visa, were charged with working for years to help the Chinese foreign intelligence service, the Ministry of State Security. 38岁的俄勒冈州居民陈远策（音）和39岁持旅游签证在美的中国公民赖立人（音）被控多年来为中国对外情报机构——国家安全部工作。 The two men were arrested on Friday as part of a sprawling counterintelligence investigation by the F.B.I. They face charges of acting as undeclared agents of the Chinese government. 两名男子于周五被捕，系联邦调查局大规模反间谍调查的一部分。两人面临的指控是充当中国政府的未注册代理人。 The episode comes as the Trump administration tries to more aggressively confront China on a host of issues, including national security, trade and immigration. 这一事件发生之际，特朗普政府正试图在国家安全、贸易和移民等一系列问题上对华采取更强硬立场。 In a statement, Attorney General Pam Bondi said the Justice Department would “not stand by while hostile nations embed spies in our country.” 司法部长帕姆·邦迪在一份声明中表示，司法部“不会坐视敌对国家在我国安插间谍”。 According to the criminal complaint filed by the department, Mr. Lai recruited Mr. Chen about four years ago to work on behalf of the Ministry of State Security. An F.B.I. affidavit said that those efforts included arranging a “dead drop” of $10,000 from Guangzhou, China, for another Chinese intelligence asset in Livermore, Calif., by leaving a backpack stuffed with cash at a locker in a recreational complex. 根据司法部刑事起诉书，赖立人大约在四年前招募陈远策为中国国家安全部工作。FBI的一份宣誓书称，这些行动包括安排“秘密交接点”，从中国广州向加州利弗莫尔的另一名中国情报人员提供1万美元，方法是把一个装满现金的背包放在一个娱乐中心的储物柜里。 That money, according to the F.B.I., was payment for information related to U.S. national security. 据FBI称，这笔钱是为获取与美国国家安全有关的信息而支付的报酬。 The pair also worked to gather information about people serving in the U.S. Navy, and to help Chinese intelligence efforts to recruit intelligence assets in the American military, the complaint added. 起诉书还称，两人还努力收集在美国海军服役人员的信息，并帮助中国情报部门在美国军方招募情报人员。 In one instance, Mr. Chen stopped by a recruitment center in San Gabriel, Calif., where he gathered identifying information for potential recruits that he then shared with an intelligence officer in China. In another instance, according to the complaint, Mr. Chen reached out to a Navy service member over social media, and supplied information about that person to the Ministry of State Security. 根据起诉书的描述，陈远策曾造访加利福尼亚州圣盖博的一个征兵中心，在那里收集潜在新兵的身份信息，然后发给中国的一名情报官员。起诉书还称，陈远策曾通过社交媒体联系了一名海军服役人员，并向国家安全部提供了此人的信息。 The charging documents also asserted that a broader network of people in the United States working at the behest of Chinese intelligence officers aided the pair’s efforts. One of those people, who is not named in court papers, had been working since as early as 2015 to carry out “various clandestine operations in the United States,” according to the F.B.I. affidavit in the case. 起诉文件还提出，美国境内存在一个受中国情报官员指使的更大网络协助二人行动。根据FBI在该案中的宣誓书，其中一名未具名人士早在2015年就开始在美国开展“各种秘密行动”。 The scheme also involved covert communication tools provided by the Ministry of State Security that enabled the Chinese spy agency to communicate with assets in the United States. 该计划还涉及国家安全部提供的秘密通讯工具，使中国间谍机构能够与美国境内的线人进行联系。 Devlin Barrett为时报报道司法部和联邦调查局。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
TIFFANY MAY, JIAWEI WANG2025年7月2日 A Chinese drone operator was transporting the belongings of villagers displaced by flooding in southern China when he spotted a man on the rooftop of a house. Waters had reached a dangerous level, he told the state broadcaster CCTV, so he used the drone to lift the man and move him to safety. 在中国南方，一名无人机操作员在为受洪水影响的村民转运财物时，发现一名男子困在屋顶。他告诉国家媒体中央电视台，当时洪水已经到了危险的程度，所以他用无人机把这名男子吊起，转移到安全的地方。 The video, which was widely circulated on social media, showed an area in the Guangxi region flooded with green-grey water, and a man dangling from a long cord attached to the drone, which set him down on a road. 这段在社交媒体上广为传播的视频显示，在广西一片浊浪翻滚的洪涝区域，这名男子吊挂在与无人机相连的长绳上，随后无人机将他放在一条道路上。 The rescue happened more out of luck than design. The owner of the drone, Lai Zhongxin, normally uses his vehicles to spray fertilizer and transport construction materials, the CCTV report said. 这次救援的发生与其说是有意为之，不如说是机缘巧合。央视报道称，这架无人机的主人赖忠新通常用它来喷洒肥料和运输建筑材料。 Drones have been used in south and southwestern China to provide aid to areas hit by torrential rains this past week. Hoisting large canvas bags filled with relief supplies, they flew over pools of floodwater and traffic-clogged roads, as extreme weather set off mass evacuations and emergency alerts. The drones also sprayed disinfectant on silt-covered fields. 过去一周，中国南部和西南部地区遭受暴雨袭击，无人机成为了救灾工具。由于极端天气引发了大规模疏散和紧急警报，无人机吊着装满救灾物资的大帆布袋，飞越洪水和交通堵塞的道路。无人机还向淤泥覆盖的农田喷洒消毒剂。 Louis Liu, the founder and chief executive of DAP Technologies, a Beijing-based consultancy specializing in air mobility, compared the rescue of the man to an excavator being used to lift someone in a fire in the absence of other tools. 北京从事空中出行咨询的德奥普科技有限公司创始人兼首席执行官刘勇把营救这名男子比作在没有其他工具的情况下，在火灾中用挖掘机救人。 “Normally, people aren’t allowed to use an agricultural drone to suspend a person in midair,” he said. “But in an emergency, if someone is about to drown, that’s something the law would overlook.” “通常情况下，人们不允许使用农用无人机将人悬在半空中，”他说。“但在紧急情况下，如果有人即将溺水，法律就会忽视这一点。” “Developing drones specifically for rescuing people is definitely an area for development,” he added. “Many in the industry are already attempting it.” “开发专门用于救援人员的无人机绝对是一个值得发展的领域，”他还说。“很多业内人士已经在尝试了。” And last week, firefighters in the southern city of Shenzhen carried out a drill using drones that flew up and down a glass skyscraper, spraying jets of water. 上周，南方城市深圳的消防队员进行了一次演习，他们使用无人机在一座玻璃摩天大楼上下飞行，喷射水柱。 Drones are already commonly used in cities like Shenzhen for delivering takeout food and packages. In March, China’s Civil Aviation Administration issued approvals that would allow two companies, EHang and Hefei Hey Airlines, to operate drones for commercial passenger services. 无人机已经在深圳等城市广泛用于外卖和快递。今年3月，中国民用航空局批准亿航智能和合肥合翼航空两家公司开展商用载人无人机服务。 The role of drones has become more visible since last year, when Premier Li Qiang identified the “low-altitude economy,” referring to the use of this technology in airspace under 1,000 meters, as a national priority. 自去年李强总理将“低空经济”（指该技术在1000米以下空域的应用）确定为国家重点工作以来，无人机的作用变得更加明显。 Tiffany May是时报驻香港记者，报道香港和更广泛地区的政治、商业和文化议题。 Jiawei Wang是《纽约时报》视频记者，常驻首尔。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
JACOB DREYER2025年7月2日 Sammy Harkham Remember the fairy tale of globalization? 还记得全球化的童话吗？ Once upon a time, many Americans believed China would inevitably become more like us just by plugging into the world trading order that we established and maybe, as President Bill Clinton once suggested, even democratize. The final victory of American-led neoliberalism was close at hand. 曾几何时，有不少美国人相信，只要将中国纳入我们建立起来的世界贸易秩序，它就不可避免地会变得更像我们，而且或许像克林顿总统曾经暗示的那样，甚至走向民主化。美国主导的新自由主义的最终胜利近在咫尺。 Mr. Clinton and others like him weren’t entirely wrong. China has spent decades emulating key elements of the American model of entrepreneurialism, consumerism and integration with global markets. It made China an industrial power, with a large middle class, cutting-edge science and technology, and global brands like Huawei, Lenovo and Alibaba. China’s 1.4 billion people live far more diverse and prosperous lifestyles than ever. Through it all, America was the model. 克林顿和其他持类似观点的人并非完全错了。中国几十年来一直在效仿美国模式中的企业家精神、消费主义、融入全球市场等关键要素。这已使中国成为一个工业强国，孕育出庞大的中产阶级以及尖端的科学技术，还有华为、联想、阿里巴巴等全球品牌。14亿中国人享受着前所未有的富足与多元。在此过程中，美国是参照的蓝本。 What neither Americans nor Chinese imagined was how much this would become a two-way street. 美国人和中国人都始料未及的是，这个进程最后变成了一个双向通道。 In the great contest of ideas and influence between the two countries, the pendulum seems as if it’s swinging back the other way. Donald Trump’s return to office has made clear that in important respects — democratic erosion, the fixation on strong borders, the curbing of free speech and numerous other examples — America is starting to look a bit more like China. 在这场美中思想与影响力的宏大博弈中，钟摆似乎像朝着另一个方向摆动。特朗普总统的再次当选已清楚地表明，在一些重要方面，美国已开始变得有几分像中国：对民主制度的侵蚀，对边境管控的执念、对言论自由的限制，还有许多其他的例子。 I’ve lived in Shanghai since 2008, with a front-row seat to the culmination of China’s rise. There is indeed much that America can learn from China. But perhaps the most important lesson is to stay true to who we are as a nation. That’s what China did. It adopted aspects of the American way that would make it strong again, while sticking to its core system of Communist Party political domination and heavy state involvement in everything. And it has been spectacularly successful. 自2008年定居上海以来，我亲历了中国崛起的巅峰时刻。美国确有很多可向中国借鉴之处，但最重要的启示或许是：坚守我们的立国之本。中国正是这么做的。它吸收了美国模式中一些让中国再次强大的方面，同时始终坚持自己的基本制度，即中共的政治主导地位和国家高度参与所有事务。这个做法取得了惊人的成功。 Trump’s America, on the other hand, is beginning to seem as if it’s taking cues from China’s political model. That’s not who we are. 另一方面，特朗普上台后的美国似乎开始模仿中国的政治模式。这绝非我们的立国之道。 The MAGA movement and its leaders demonize the Chinese Communist Party. But some of their actions validate the party’s ways, showing that practically speaking, they seem to want similar things. 虽然“让美国再次伟大”（简称MAGA）运动及其领导人对中共妖魔化，但他们的一些行为却是对中共做法的认同，表明他们其实似乎想得到类似的东西。 Both push a muscular patriotism, are obsessed with manufacturing and hostile to immigrants. Both want a country where ethnic minorities are expected to bow to the dominant group and traditional gender roles are enforced. And all of this is presided over by a domineering ruling party led by an autocrat who flatters himself with military parades. Imitation is indeed the highest form of flattery. 中共和MAGA运动都推崇强烈的爱国主义，都对制造业着迷，对移民持敌视态度。它们都想要一个少数族裔被要求屈从于主体族群、传统性别角色得到强化的国家。而且所有这一切都是在一个专制的执政党领导下，这个执政党的领袖用阅兵式来展示自命不凡。效仿的确是最高形式的奉承。 The evidence mounts daily. 这方面的证据与日俱增。 China weaponizes its economy to punish trading partners over various disputes or mere slights; the Trump administration squeezes U.S. allies with arbitrary tariffs or other retaliation over issues such as fentanyl and politics. 中国将经济武器化，因为各种争端或只是微小的冒犯便惩罚贸易伙伴；特朗普政府则通过随意加征关税或采取其他报复手段，对美国的盟友施压，理由包括芬太尼问题或政治分歧等。 Geopolitically, China prioritizes relationships of convenience, such as its ties with Russia, over formal alliances. It bullies its neighbors, stoking territorial disputes with a mentality summed up by former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who bluntly told Southeast Asian officials in 2010 that “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that’s just a fact.” Mr. Trump, too, sees little value in alliances and seems intent on alienating friends and neighbors with his threats to absorb Canada and Greenland and moving to rename the Gulf of Mexico. 在地缘政治层面，中国将权宜关系置于正式的盟友关系之上，比如与俄罗斯的关系。中国欺凌邻国、挑起领土争端的心态已被前外交部长杨洁篪暴露无遗，他在2010年直言不讳地告诉东南亚的官员们：“中国是大国，其他国家是小国，这只是一个事实。”特朗普也认为联盟没有多少价值，他威胁吞并加拿大和格陵兰岛、重新命名墨西哥湾的做法，无不显露疏离友邻的意图。 Economically, Americans have long criticized China for overemphasizing manufacturing and flooding world markets with Chinese goods while neglecting to spur the domestic consumption that would balance its economy and trade. But much like Mr. Xi, MAGA leaders see manufacturing as noble, and globalization as turning Americans into passive consumers. 在经济方面，美国人长期以来批评中国过分强调制造业，向世界市场倾销中国商品，却忽视了国内消费的发展，让中国的经济和贸易发展失衡。但MAGA运动的领导人与习近平差不多，也把制造业视为崇高行业，认为全球化将美国人变成了被动消费者。 The U.S. and Chinese political systems are of course fundamentally different at their core. But our domestic politics increasingly track closer to China’s as the Trump administration undermines basic constitutional rights and the judicial process and casts a chill over free speech and protest. 诚然，美中政治制度在本质上存在根本差别。但随着特朗普政府削弱宪法赋予的基本权利、破坏司法程序、压制言论自由与抗议活动，美国国内的政治环境与中国越来越相似。 As different as the United States and China are, deeply similar national conditions are driving this convergence. 尽管美中差别巨大，但深层次上高度相似的国情正在推动两国趋同。 China leaned into the American model to rebuild industrially and catch up to the West. Today, it is America that is worried about falling behind. People in both countries worry about artificial intelligence and automation taking jobs and changing how we work, live and interact as a society. Many disillusioned young people in both countries feel left out of their nation’s economies and wonder what’s the point of pursuing careers. 中国在实现工业振兴、追赶西方时曾向美国模式倾斜。如今，担忧落后的却是美国。两国人民都担心人工智能和自动化会抢走就业机会，改变我们的工作、生活以及参与社会互动的方式。两国都有不少失意的年轻人觉得他们被国内经济甩在了后面，甚至质疑职业追求的意义何在。 These shared challenges, not surprisingly, lead to similarly populist political solutions. For Mr. Xi, it’s the Chinese Dream, his patriotic vision of a China restored to its ancient prosperity and power. Mr. Trump has ridden its younger sibling, “Make America Great Again,” to two election victories. 一点也不奇怪的是，这些共同的挑战导致两国都采取了类似的民粹主义政治解决方案。对习近平来说，就是所谓的“中国梦”，是他为恢复中国古代曾经有过的繁荣和强大提出的爱国主义愿景。这个愿景的小弟弟——“让美国再次伟大”的理念已让特朗普两次赢得了总统大选。 Much of what China does is worthy of respect. Its government makes farsighted industrial policy as a matter of habit. It proactively presents new technologies like artificial intelligence to its people as positive forces, introducing them in ways that benefit the public, such as in education and health care. China is aggressively transitioning to renewable energy, and new estimates indicate that its greenhouse gas emissions — the world’s highest — have begun to fall for the first time. China has clean, safe, efficient and high-tech cities, knit together by immaculate highways and a state-of-the-art rail network. Government funding and investment is flowing into education, science and technology. 中国的许多做法值得钦佩。中国政府制定富有远见的产业政策已成常态。主动把人工智能等新技术作为一种积极力量向老百姓推广，通过教育和医疗等公共服务惠及大众。中国正全力转向可再生能源，新的评估表明，曾是全球最高的中国温室气体排放量现已首次开始下降。中国有清洁、安全、高效的智慧型城市，它们通过整洁如新的高速公路和最先进的铁路网络紧密相连。政府还一直在教育和科技领域投入源源不断的资金。 It’s natural for Americans who want a better future to look, albeit grudgingly, at what China has achieved. To be sure, leaders in Beijing don’t have a messy democracy to get in the way of their plans, but that’s hardly the only reason for China’s success. It came also from strategic foresight, investing in the future, a sense of national focus and unity — not division — that comes from the top and millions of individuals working hard to build the country up. China followed America’s lead, but it stuck to its own systems and stayed focused on meeting the basic needs of its population. 渴望更美好未来的美国人自然会关注中国取得的成就，纵使不情愿。确实，中国领导人在制定计划时无需受制于纷乱的民主程序，但这远非中国成功的唯一原因。战略远见、投资未来、一种自上而下的国家专注和团结（而非分裂）意识以及亿万民众建设国家的辛勤耕耘共同铸就了今日的成果。中国学习了美国的榜样，但坚持自己的制度，并始终把注意力集中在满足民众的基本需求上。 The United States can and should consider adopting some of what has worked for China, such as transitioning to renewables; revitalizing industrial policy; supporting science, research and education; reinvesting in infrastructure, housing and safe cities; and above all, having a sense of collective purpose that leads to national strength. 美国可以而且应该考虑借鉴一些中国行之有效的做法，例如向可再生能源转型，振兴产业政策，支持科研教育，重新投资基础设施、住房和安全城市项目，尤其需要培育能转化为国力的集体使命意识。 Instead, Mr. Trump’s administration is undermining or slashing funding for critical things such as public safety, infrastructure, education, scientific research, clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing, while fanning political divisions. 特朗普政府目前的做法却是在削弱或大幅削减关键领域的资金，如公共安全、基础设施、教育、科学研究、清洁能源，以及半导体制造，同时煽动政治对立。 We can learn from China, but we must find a way to make it work while remaining true to our founding principles. Otherwise, when the smoke clears from the Trump era, America might not be “great again,” but weaker. And we will have found that the student has become the master. 我们可以向中国学习，但我们需要找到一个既行之有效、又坚守我们立国精神的方法。否则，特朗普时代的迷雾散去后，美国也许不是“再次伟大”，而是变得更弱。届时我们会发现，以前的学生已变成了师傅。 Jacob Dreyer是一位作家和编辑，过去17年中大部分时间都住在上海。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
YAN ZHUANG2025年7月2日北京首都国际机场，摄于4月。中国禁止乘客携带部分充电宝登机，此前曾有几百万块移动电源被召回。 Tingshu Wang/Reuters Travelers in China have been caught off guard in recent days when they arrived at airports to be told they could not bring certain portable batteries aboard their flights. 最近几天，中国的一些乘机旅客到机场后才知道部分移动电源被禁止带上飞机，这让他们措手不及。 The country’s aviation regulator has implemented an emergency ban on some portable batteries aboard flights. The ban, which went into effect Saturday after just two days’ notice, came as the regulator warned of growing risks to the aviation industry from batteries, millions of which have been recently recalled. 中国民航监管机构发布了一项禁止旅客将某些充电宝带上航班的紧急通知。这项仅提前两天发布的禁令已于伤周六生效。监管机构此前曾对充电宝给民用航空带来的危险日益加大发出警告，近期已有几百万块充电宝被召回。 Airlines and governments around the world have tightened regulations on the use of portable batteries on flights this year. But while other airlines have largely issued guidelines on the in-flight use and storage of portable batteries, China’s order prohibits passengers from taking some batteries on board planes altogether. 今年以来，世界各地的航空公司和政府加强了对飞机上使用充电宝的监管。其他国家的航空公司主要发布的是有关机上使用和存放移动电池的指南，中国的措施则是完全禁止乘客携带部分充电宝上飞机。 The change has caused confusion and consternation among travelers, with some complaining that they had been forced to discard their portable batteries, an increasingly common accessory in modern life, while traveling. 新禁令在旅客中引发了困惑和震惊，一些人抱怨说，他们被迫丢弃了充电宝，而这是现代人旅行时越来越常见的随身携带物品。 The notice of the ban, issued by China’s Civil Aviation Administration on Thursday, stated that portable batteries that were not clearly marked as having a Chinese safety certification would not be allowed on flights. Batteries that had been recalled were also prohibited. 中国民用航空局上周四发布的紧急通知规定，旅客禁止携带没有清楚的中国强制性产品认证（即所谓的3C认证）的充电宝乘坐境内航班。被禁止携带的还包括被召回的充电宝。 The aviation authority said the batteries posed a safety risk, citing recent recalls of the devices by manufacturers and episodes of portable batteries catching fire on board planes. China’s market regulator has also suspended or revoked the certifications of a number of portable battery and battery cell manufacturers, the aviation authority said. 民航局表示，这些电池存在安全隐患，并以制造商最近召回充电宝、充电宝在飞机上起火冒烟事件为例。民航局还说，中国市场监管机构已撤销或暂停了多个充电宝和电池芯厂家的3C认证。 These factors “demonstrate that portable batteries carried by travelers contain hidden safety and quality dangers, and the risks they pose to the safe operation of civil aviation continues to grow,” the notice said. “上述情况表明旅客随身携带的充电宝存在安全质量隐患，给民航安全运行带来的风险持续增大，”通知说。 In past weeks, two major Chinese battery companies have recalled millions of power banks in China and the United States, citing problems with lithium-ion battery cells made by suppliers. 过去几周，中国两家主要的电池企业在中国和美国召回了数百万块移动电源产品，原因是供应商提供的锂电池芯有问题。 In June, Anker, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of the batteries, issued a recall for more than one million power banks sold in the United States because it said the lithium-ion battery inside could pose a fire risk. 今年6月，全球最大的移动电源制造商之一安克宣布，在美国市场召回100多万个充电宝，称里面的锂电池可能存在燃烧风险。 Later that month, the company recalled seven models in China, totaling about 700,000 batteries, according to local news media. 当月晚些时候，安克召回了中国市场上销售的七款移动电源产品。据国内媒体报道，被召回的充电宝数量逾70万块。 Anker then issued a global voluntary recall for another five models, saying that it had identified a potential issue with lithium-ion battery cells provided by a vendor, which it did not name. 安克随后宣布在全球自愿召回另外五款移动电源产品，称公司发现为其提供锂电池芯的一家供应商存在潜在问题，但没有透露该供应商的名字。 Romoss, another Chinese battery maker, in June recalled three models of batteries, totaling nearly 500,000 products, because of an issue with their supplier-provided battery cells. 另一家中国电池制造商罗马仕已在今年6月召回了三款移动电源产品，共计近50万块，原因是供应商提供的电芯有问题。 Even before the recalls, several airlines in Asia had changed their rules on portable batteries after a fire destroyed an Air Busan plane on the tarmac in South Korea in January. There is no definitive link between portable batteries and that fire, and an investigation is underway. 在这些召回之前，今年1月，韩国釜山航空的一架客机在停机坪起火焚毁后，几家亚洲航空公司已改变了允许乘客携带移动电池的规定。不过，目前尚无证据表明这起火灾与移动电源存在明确联系，失火原因仍在调查中。 Yan Zhuang是时报驻首尔记者，负责报道突发新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
W.J. HENNIGAN2025年7月1日 Emmanuel Polanco One day after 14 American 30,000-pound bombs thundered down on Iran, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry issued a typically florid public statement through its state-run media, claiming the United States had “violently trampled down the territorial integrity and security interests of a sovereign state.” 14枚3万磅重的美国炸弹呼啸着落在伊朗后第二天，朝鲜外务省通过其官方媒体发表了一份典型的堆砌辞藻的公开声明，声称美国“粗暴地践踏了一个主权国家的领土完整和安全利益”。 Unlike North Korea, Iran doesn’t yet have a nuclear weapon. But for North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, America’s airstrikes on Iran’s aspirational nuclear infrastructure must have reinforced what he has long held to be true: that possessing nuclear weapons is vital for his and his nation’s survival. Would the United States carry out such a brash, pre-emptive operation if Iran could credibly strike back with the bomb? 与朝鲜不同，伊朗还没有核武器。但对朝鲜领导人金正恩来说，被伊朗寄以厚望的核基础设施遭到美国空袭肯定强化了他长期以来的看法：拥有核武器对他和他的国家的生存至关重要。如果伊朗具备用核弹进行反击的可靠能力，美国还会采取如此强横的先发制人行动吗？ This calculus has been at the forefront of Mr. Kim’s mind since taking power from his father more than a decade ago. Nothing has diverted him from driving North Korea’s military, industrial and science communities to develop nuclear weapons and long-range missiles that put targets on the United States and its allies. 自十多年前从父亲手中接过政权以来，金正恩一直在盘算着这个问题。没有什么能阻止他推动朝鲜军事、工业和科学界发展核武器和远程导弹，将目标对准美国及其盟国。 And remarkably, he’s accomplished those tasks. Despite decades-long efforts by the United States and other world powers to persuade North Korea off the nuclear path, the small, isolated nation is estimated to have assembled around 50 warheads and produced enough fissile material for up to 40 more. Its arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles can very likely target every major U.S. city, and thousands of additional missiles are currently in range of U.S. military bases across the Asia-Pacific. 令人瞩目的是，他完成了这些任务。尽管美国和其他世界大国数十年来一直在努力劝说朝鲜放弃核道路，但这个孤立的小国据估计已经组装了大约50枚弹头，并生产了足够多的裂变材料，可以再生产40枚弹头。朝鲜的洲际弹道导弹武库很可能可以瞄准美国的所有主要城市，另外还有数以千计的导弹，目前射程已经覆盖美国在亚太地区的全部军事基地。 The internet is awash with photos of Mr. Kim observing missile tests, meeting with scientists designing those missiles and touring yawning complexes that produce bomb-grade atomic fuel. Mr. Kim wants the world to know that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, already formidable, is advancing each day. 互联网上充斥着金正恩观察导弹试验、与设计这些导弹的科学家会面以及参观生产炸弹级原子燃料的庞大建筑群的照片。金正恩希望全世界都知道，朝鲜的核武器计划已经非常强大，而且每天都在进步。 Unlike with Iran, President Trump is not threatening war to disarm North Korea. In fact, five months into his second term, he doesn’t seem to be paying much attention at all, even as Mr. Kim has grown stronger through new nuclear weapons, missiles and alliances. If the United States was unable to inflict irreversible damage to Iran’s nuclear program through airstrikes, as some early intelligence suggests, it’s difficult to imagine the sort of sustained campaign that would be needed to succeed in North Korea. 与伊朗不同，特朗普总统并没有威胁用战争来解除朝鲜的武装。事实上，他的第二任期已经开始五个月，但他似乎根本没花多少心思在这上面，即使金正恩已凭借新的核武器、导弹和联盟变得更加强大。如果美国无法通过空袭对伊朗的核计划造成不可逆的破坏（如一些早期情报所显示的那样），那么在朝鲜取得成功所需的那种持续行动也是很难想象的。 Now that the flurry of military activity to neutralize Iran’s nuclear ambitions has died down, the intractable problem of North Korea’s program looms even larger. There are no outward signs that a similar mission is being considered. And it shouldn’t be. Let’s think instead about a more promising way forward. 如今遏制伊朗核野心的一系列军事活动已经平息，朝鲜核计划的棘手问题就显得更加突出起来。目前还没有迹象表明有类似的任务正在考虑之中。也不应该考虑。让我们思考一下更值得期待的未来之路。 Mr. Kim has repeatedly made it clear that he has no intention of giving up the program, seeing it as essential to ensuring his family’s hold on power. But Republican and Democratic presidents alike have nevertheless spent a quarter-century seeking North Korea’s “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization.” (In 2021, President Joe Biden invited talks with Pyongyang with no preconditions, but that offer went nowhere.) This year, Mr. Trump became the latest commander in chief to publicly commit to the unrealistic goal of getting Mr. Kim to abandon his program altogether. 金正恩曾多次明确表示，他无意放弃该计划，并将其视为确保其家族掌权的关键。然而，美国两党的总统依然用了四分之一个世纪来寻求朝鲜实现“完全、可核查和不可逆转的无核化”。（2021年，拜登总统邀请平壤举行没有先决条件的会谈，但这一提议不了了之。）今年，特朗普成为最新一位公开承诺让金正恩彻底放弃核计划这一不切实际目标的统帅。 America can no longer afford for its outdated denuclearization demands to be an obstacle to kick-starting diplomacy. Though Washington does not officially acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, the U.S. military already plans and conducts drills based on the fact that North Korea has a nuclear arsenal. Mr. Trump, himself, has publicly said on at least three occasions that it is a nuclear power. Acknowledging this as a diplomatic fact is a difficult decision, to be sure, but it is also necessary to achieve a breakthrough that can reduce tensions, avert unwanted war and prevent hundreds of new weapons from entering North Korea’s ever-growing arsenal. 美国不能再让过时的无核化要求成为启动外交的障碍。虽然美国没有正式承认朝鲜是拥核国家，但美国军方已经根据朝鲜拥有核武库的事实来计划和进行演习。特朗普本人也至少三次公开表示，朝鲜是一个核大国。诚然，承认这是一个外交事实是一个艰难的决定，但这也是实现突破的必要条件，这可以缓解紧张局势，避免不必要的战争，并防止数百件新武器进入朝鲜不断增长的武器库。 The Trump administration should draw up a diplomatic road map that would freeze North Korea’s fast-growing nuclear program in place in exchange for relief from the sanctions that have crippled the nation’s economy. The policy upheaval is almost certain to trigger backlash from South Korea and Japan, the U.S. allies most directly threatened by North Korea’s nuclear program, and stoke concerns among other nations for rewarding North Korea’s bad behavior. But a change in approach is necessary to begin managing the mounting risks. 特朗普政府应该制定一份外交路线图，冻结朝鲜快速发展的核计划，以换取减轻对朝鲜经济的制裁。这一政策变动几乎肯定会引发韩国和日本的强烈反对，这两个国家是美国的盟友，受到朝鲜核计划最直接的威胁，同时也会引发其他国家对“奖励朝鲜恶行”的担忧。但要开始管理不断增加的风险，就必须改变做法。 To understand the scope and sprawl of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, The Times examined dozens of commercial satellite and state-issued propaganda images collected by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Based on these images, it is hard to envision how Mr. Kim’s multibillion-dollar, yearslong investment in his nuclear and missile complex — spread across 28 sites, with likely many others underground — can ever be entirely dismantled. Acknowledging that reality, and getting Mr. Kim back to the negotiating table, is the only way to contain the growing threat that North Korea poses. 为了了解朝鲜核武器计划的范围和规模，时报研究了明德大学詹姆斯·马丁防扩散研究中心收集的数十幅商业卫星和国家发行的宣传图片。根据这些图片，我们很难想象金正恩耗资数十亿美元、耗时数年的核与导弹综合体（分布在28个地点，可能还有许多地下场所）可以怎样被完全拆除。承认这一现实、让金正恩回到谈判桌前，这是遏制朝鲜日益增长的威胁的唯一途径。 If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, then Washington’s approach to North Korea certainly meets that mark. The United States has never had formal diplomatic relations with Pyongyang, a policy that no longer makes sense with thousands of centrifuges spinning in North Korea all day, every day. If nothing is done, North Korea’s stockpile will continue to grow, narrowing its gap with the eight other nuclear powers. 如果疯狂的定义是一再地做同样的事情却期待不同的结果，那么华盛顿对待朝鲜的方式无疑符合这一标准。美国从未与平壤建立过正式外交关系，鉴于朝鲜每天都有数以千计的离心机在运转，这种政策已不再有意义。如果不采取任何措施，朝鲜的核武库将继续增长，从而缩小与其他八个核大国的差距。 朝鲜已将其核工业存在扩大到全国。 Yongbyon 宁边 The focus of every denuclearization proposal that the United States has made to North Korea has included the complex at Yongbyon. Comprising hundreds of buildings peppered across about 10 square miles of low-lying hills, the Yongbyon nuclear complex produces North Korea’s plutonium, along with highly enriched uranium and tritium — all materials necessary to make thermonuclear weapons. 美国向朝鲜提出的每一项无核化建议的重点都包括宁边的核设施。宁边核设施由数百座建筑组成，分布在约2600公顷的低洼丘陵地带，生产钚、高浓缩铀和氚——制造热核武器所需的所有材料。 Source: Image via Planet Labs, analysis by the Open Source Team at the Middlebury Institute Initial construction began at Yongbyon in the 1960s following an atomic energy agreement with the Soviet Union. In 1991, North Korea lost its largest benefactor when the Soviet Union dissolved; the United States subsequently withdrew all its nuclear weapons deployed to South Korea. North and South Korea signed the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which led to the term “denuclearization” being ensconced in the political lexicon. 20世纪60年代，在与苏联达成原子能协议后，宁边核设施开始了建设。1991年，苏联解体，朝鲜失去了最大的资助者；美国随后撤回了部署在韩国的所有核武器。朝韩签署了《朝鲜半岛无核化共同宣言》，“无核化”一词由此进入了政治词汇。The Federation of American Scientists, a Washington-based nonprofit, estimated in 2024 that North Korea had produced up to 4,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium and 178 pounds of plutonium. The country can potentially make enough material to build half a dozen new weapons annually. 据总部位于华盛顿的非营利组织美国科学家联合会在2024年的估计，朝鲜已经生产了多达约1800公斤高浓缩铀和80公斤钚。该国每年有可能生产出足够制造六件新武器的材料。 Emboldened by advancements in weapons production, Mr. Kim first said in 2021 that he would expand his weapons program beyond city-busting hydrogen bombs to start building smaller-yield “tactical” nuclear warheads that are designed to fit on short-range missiles for regional targets. He has since said he’s developed enough of the smaller warheads, which are designed to be mounted on at least eight delivery systems, including a submarine drone. 由于武器生产的进步，金正恩在2021年首次表示，他将扩大武器计划，不再局限于摧毁城市的氢弹，而是开始制造当量较小的“战术”核弹头，这些弹头可安装在短程导弹上，用于攻击地区目标。他后来表示，他已经开发出足够多的小型弹头，设计用于安装在至少八个运载系统上，包括一种无人潜航器。 Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site 丰溪里核试验场 After U.S. military forces invaded Iraq and deposed Saddam Hussein in 2003, North Korea pushed ahead with its missile and nuclear programs. In Pyongyang, the invasion was seen as a grim warning: Mr. Hussein didn’t have the bomb and he lost his power, then, ultimately, his life. North Korea wouldn’t make the same mistake. 2003年美国军队入侵伊拉克并推翻萨达姆·侯赛因后，朝鲜继续推进其导弹和核项目。在平壤，入侵被视为一个严峻的警告：侯赛因没有核弹失去了权力，最终失去了生命。朝鲜不会重蹈覆辙。 Its first nuclear weapon test took place underground in 2006 at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site in the country’s mountainous northeast, making North Korea the first and only nation to test a nuclear weapon since all other nations stopped doing so nearly a decade earlier. 2006年，朝鲜在位于该国东北部山区的丰溪里核试验场进行了首次地下核武器试验，成为自近十年前所有其他国家停止核武器试验以来第一个也是唯一一个进行核武器试验的国家。 The detonation, which was picked up by seismic and radiation sensors around the world, sent the international community in a tailspin. World leaders subsequently persuaded North Korea in 2007 to again agree to shut down a reactor at Yongbyon and invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors into the country for verification. It did both, but after diplomatic efforts later collapsed, inspections were no longer allowed and the reactor was restarted. 这次爆炸被世界各地的地震和辐射传感器捕捉到，使国际社会为之震惊。随后，世界各国领导人在2007年说服朝鲜再次同意关闭宁边的一座反应堆，并邀请国际原子能机构核查人员进入朝鲜进行核查。朝鲜两件事都做了，但在外交努力失败后，朝鲜不再允许核查，反应堆重新启动。 Source: Image via Planet Labs, analysis by the Open Source Team at the Middlebury Institute North Korea has since tested five more devices at the site, and America’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said in March that Mr. Kim was very likely preparing for another one. In 2018, parts of the site were blown up in an apparent show of good faith before a planned summit with Mr. Trump. The summit was canceled, and today, Middlebury analysis shows that North Korea has rebuilt the buildings and a tunnel entrance that were destroyed. 此后，朝鲜又在该试验场测试了五个装置，美国国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德3月表示，金正恩很可能正在准备另一个装置。2018年，在计划与特朗普举行峰会之前，朝鲜炸毁了该场址的部分设施，显然是为了表示诚意。后来，峰会被取消，今天，明德大学的分析显示，朝鲜已经重建了被摧毁的建筑物和隧道入口。North Korea’s emerging strategic partnership marks one of the biggest opportunities for Pyongyang since the Cold War. For most of North Korea’s existence, China has been its staunchest ally. Beijing sent military forces to fight against the United States in the Korean War, and it has been its strongest trade partner and benefactor. 朝鲜正在形成的战略伙伴关系标志着平壤自冷战以来最大的机会之一。在朝鲜存在的大部分时间里，中国一直是其最坚定的盟友。在朝鲜战争中，北京曾派出军队与美国作战，并且一直是朝鲜最强大的贸易伙伴和捐助者。 Last June, Pyongyang signed a mutual defense pact with Russia. Analysts believe Moscow is already providing North Korea with hard-won expertise on missile technology, helping it improve manufacturing practices, produce lightweight composite materials and capture performance data from missiles used on the Ukrainian battlefield. There are even recent reports that Russia is lending its assistance to North Korea’s nuclear submarine program. 去年6月，平壤与俄罗斯签署了共同防御条约。分析人士认为，莫斯科已经在向朝鲜提供来之不易的导弹技术专业知识，帮助朝鲜改进制造工艺，生产轻质复合材料，并从乌克兰战场上使用的导弹中获取性能数据。最近甚至有报道称，俄罗斯正在协助朝鲜的核潜艇项目。 Sohae 西海 Although North Korea built and tested missiles under Mr. Kim’s father and grandfather, it wasn’t until the younger Kim took over in 2011 that the program matured after hundreds of tests. Many missile components are tested at Sohae Satellite Launching Station, located alongside the Yellow Sea, about 50 miles from Yongbyon. 虽然朝鲜在金正恩的父亲和祖父领导下建造并测试了导弹，但直到年轻的金正恩于2011年接手后，经过数百次测试，朝鲜的导弹项目才逐渐成熟起来。许多导弹部件都在西海卫星发射站进行测试，该发射站位于黄海沿岸，距离宁边约80公里。 The military is now armed with all manner of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonic delivery systems and large solid-propellant ICBMs that can be driven on a mobile launcher into a remote area and launched with no warning. Many land in the Sea of Japan, where fishing and shipping lanes separate North Korea and Japan, and some have even flown over parts of Japan. 朝鲜军队现在装备了各种各样的弹道导弹、巡航导弹、高超音速投送系统和大型固体推进剂洲际弹道导弹，这些导弹可以用移动发射车机动到偏远地区，并在没有警告的情况下发射。许多导弹落在日本海，那里的捕鱼和航道将朝鲜和日本分开，有些导弹甚至飞越了日本部分地区。 The missile tests are carried out at a variety of sites across the country, including Sohae, which Middlebury analysis shows has been expanding in recent years. 导弹试验在朝鲜全国各地的不同地点进行，包括西海，明德大学分析显示，近年来西海的试验规模一直在扩大。 Mr. Kim’s pace of testing brought Washington and Pyongyang to the brink of war in 2017 during Mr. Trump’s first term, when he threatened to unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea. The heightened tensions ultimately led to a brief détente between the countries, when, for the first time, an American president and a North Korean leader spoke directly. 2017年，在特朗普的第一个任期内，金正恩的试验速度使华盛顿和平壤走到了战争的边缘，当时特朗普威胁要对朝鲜释放“火与怒”。紧张局势的加剧最终导致两国之间出现短暂的缓和，美国总统和朝鲜领导人首次直接对话。 Three meetings between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim in 2018 and 2019 — as the pair exchanged love letters — that many hoped would slow down North Korea’s nuclear program ended in disappointment due in large part to hasty planning and the United States’ continued insistence on denuclearization. Mr. Kim held back from missile tests in 2018 and launched just a handful in 2020 and 2021, but the pace picked back up in 2022. In the past few years, under the Biden administration, Pyongyang test-fired more missiles than ever before while also revealing an array of new weapons. 2018年和2019年，特朗普和金正恩会晤了三次，两人互送秋波，许多人希望这些会晤能减缓朝鲜核计划的进展，但最终还是以失望收场，这在很大程度上是由于计划仓促和美国继续坚持朝鲜无核化。金正恩在2018年暂缓了导弹试射，在2020年和2021年仅发射了少量导弹，但在2022年又加快了步伐。过去几年，在拜登政府时期，平壤试射的导弹数量超过以往任何时候，同时还展示了一系列新武器。 Source: Image via Planet Labs, analysis by the Open Source Team at the Middlebury Institute So what do we know about North Korea’s nuclear weapons program? We know that its nuclear program’s infrastructure is vast. We know its weapons work. We know its missiles work. Why wouldn’t the United States negotiate to obtain better insight and open communication channels to help shape Mr. Kim’s choices in a potential crisis? 那么，我们对朝鲜的核武器计划了解多少呢？我们知道，朝鲜核计划的基础设施非常庞大。我们知道它的武器可以使用。我们知道它的导弹可以使用。美国为何不通过谈判获得更深入的了解，并开放沟通渠道，影响金正恩在潜在危机中的选择？ Pursuing diplomacy with North Korea won’t be universally popular. The regime is far from admirable. It has, among other things, advanced its military capabilities at the expense of its starving and impoverished population. But the looming nuclear threat is now so severe that joint U.S.-South Korea exercises in April involved nuclear weapon effects scenarios. It’s wise that they do, considering U.S. intelligence says North Korea could use a nuclear weapon early in a conflict to make up for its deficit in conventional capabilities. 寻求与朝鲜的外交途径不会受到普遍欢迎。这远不是一个值得敬仰的政权。别的且不说，它会以饥饿和贫困的人民为代价提高自己军事能力。但现在核威胁是如此迫在眉睫，以至于美韩在4月的联合演习中涉及了核武器影响的场景。考虑到美国情报部门称朝鲜可能会在冲突初期使用核武器来弥补其常规能力的不足，这样做是明智的。 It makes sense for the Trump administration to shift toward a strategy that aims to contain escalation rather than keep a white-knuckled grip on a failed policy. South Korea bristled when Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth referred to North Korea’s “status as a nuclear power” during the confirmation process on his nomination. It was virtually the same language Mr. Trump offhandedly used when talking to the media. (The White House later walked the comments back.) 特朗普政府应该转向一种旨在遏制事态升级的战略，而不是抓住一项失败的政策不放手。当国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在提名确认听证中提到朝鲜的“核大国地位”时，韩国感到愤怒。而这与特朗普在接受媒体采访时不假思索地使用的语言几乎相同。（白宫后来收回了这一言论。） But common sense must prevail. No nation armed with an arsenal of this size has ever given it up — other than former Soviet nations, which didn’t control the weapons on their territories. Every president since Bill Clinton has missed an opportunity to rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions because of denuclearization’s all-or-nothing approach. Mr. Trump should not allow the shackles of the past to hobble his administration when there are more sensible strategies available to shape a more promising future. 但常识必须占上风。没有任何国家放弃过如此规模的武器库——除了那些无法控制其境内武器的前苏联国家。自克林顿以来的每一位美国总统都因为“非黑即白”的无核化方针而错失了遏制朝鲜核野心的机会。特朗普不应该让过去束缚自己的政府，因为还有更明智的战略，可以塑造一个更有希望的未来。 制图：Aileen Clarke 补充报道：Spencer Cohen W.J. Hennigan为观点版面撰写有关国家安全、外交政策和冲突的文章。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
IVAN NECHEPURENKO2025年7月1日莫斯科的连锁餐厅Chiho。中餐馆如雨后春笋般出现在俄罗斯的各个城市。 Standing under a pagoda roof at the entrance to a sprawling Chinese-themed park in Moscow, Alyona Iyevskaya was doing homework for her university. Against a backdrop of ornate pavilions, arched bridges, a pond and a statue of Confucius, a friend filmed her on a camera phone gushing about the park — in Mandarin. 站在莫斯科一个巨大的中国主题公园入口处的宝塔屋顶下，阿廖娜·伊耶夫斯卡娅正在完成她的大学作业。以雕梁画栋的亭台、拱桥、池塘和孔子塑像为背景，一位朋友用手机拍下了她滔滔不绝谈论公园的情景——全程使用的是普通话。 Ms. Iyevskaya, 19, said she chose to study the language at Moscow City University, where she is a first-year student, because she believes China is on the rise and her prospects will be better if she speaks the language. Many Moscow universities now offer similar courses. 19岁的伊耶夫斯卡娅说，她选择在莫斯科城市大学学习这门语言，因为她相信中国正在崛起，如果会说这门语言，就会拥有更好的前景。她现在是这所大学的一年级学生。莫斯科的许多高校现在都开设了类似的课程。 “Many young people want to go to China to study,” Ms. Iyevskaya said. “There are so many prospects in China,” she added. “It is so cool, and it is developing so fast.” “许多年轻人想去中国留学，”伊耶夫斯卡娅说。“中国有很多的机会，”她还说。“它太酷了，而且发展得很快。” In a country that until recently worshiped everything Western, something surprising has happened: China has become desirable and trendy for Russians. 在一个直到前不久还崇拜一切西方事物的国家，令人惊讶的事情发生了：中国已经成为俄罗斯人向往的时尚潮流。 Chinese cars have become a common sight on Moscow streets. Members of the Russian elite are hiring Chinese nannies to encourage their children to learn Mandarin early. The capital’s museums and performance centers are clamoring to put on Chinese exhibitions and shows. 中国汽车已成为莫斯科街头的一道常见风景。俄罗斯精英阶层开始雇佣中国保姆，以便让孩子从小学习普通话。首都的博物馆和表演中心争相举办中国的展览和演出。 莫斯科一家购物中心展示的中国汽车。中国品牌的汽车已成为莫斯科街头的一道常见风景。 “The last three years let the Russians see the East in a totally new light, not as an exotic alternative to Europe but as a mainstream direction for business, tourism and studies,” Kirill V. Babaev, the head of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an email. 俄罗斯科学院中国与当代亚洲研究所所长基里尔·巴巴耶夫在一封电子邮件中说，“过去三年让俄罗斯人以全新的眼光看待东方，它不再是欧洲的异国情调替代品，而是商业、旅游和研究的主流方向。” “The Russian people are following this trend with so much interest, as if they had just discovered another planet,” he added. 他还说：“俄罗斯人民以极大的兴趣追逐这一趋势，好像他们刚刚发现了另一个星球。” Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China has become the Kremlin’s best friend in public, even as some Russian officials retain a deep suspicion of Beijing’s intentions. It has provided diplomatic support and bought Russian oil and gas. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has met with President Vladimir V. Putin in the Kremlin, both smiling warmly for the cameras. China has also helped replace Western consumer goods that Russians cannot buy because of sanctions. 自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，中国已成为克里姆林宫在公开场合最好的朋友，尽管一些俄罗斯官员仍对北京的意图深表怀疑。中国提供了外交支持，并购买俄罗斯的石油和天然气。中国领导人习近平在克里姆林宫与俄罗斯总统普京会晤，两人都对着镜头热情地微笑。此外，中国还帮助俄罗斯填补了因西方制裁而无法购买的消费品空缺。 All that has fed into a growing mania for Chinese goods and culture across Russia. 所有这些都助长了俄罗斯各地掀起日益高涨的中国商品及文化追捧热潮。 In Moscow, the few public schools that offer Chinese are oversubscribed, and Mandarin is a staple not only at linguistic universities, but also at technical schools. Employment vacancies requiring Chinese have soared in recent years, according to a popular job website. 在莫斯科，为数不多开设中文课程的公立学校都出现了超额报名的现象，普通话不仅是语言大学的常设课程，也进入了工科院校的课堂。据一家知名招聘网站称，近年来要求掌握中文的职位空缺大幅增加。 莫斯科的一家旅游纪念品商店，摆放着俄罗斯总统普京（左）和中国最高领导人习近平的像。 Theater directors from China stage plays based on contemporary Chinese novels in Russian theaters that once welcomed leading Western artists. In April, a major museum in Moscow hosted an exhibition of porcelain, ceramics and other artifacts from the National Museum of China in Beijing. Books about Chinese culture are featured prominently in bookstores. 来自中国的戏剧导演在曾经接待的多是西方顶尖艺术家的俄罗斯剧院上演根据中国当代小说改编的剧目。今年4月，莫斯科一家大型博物馆举办了来自北京中国国家博物馆的瓷器、陶瓷和其他文物展览。有关中国文化的书籍在书店里摆在显眼位置。 In late January, Moscow City Hall decorated the city center to celebrate Lunar New Year, covering pedestrian streets with red lanterns and installing a giant panda hugging a Christmas tree next to Red Square. 1月下旬，莫斯科市政厅装饰了市中心以庆祝春节，在步行街上挂满了红灯笼，并在红场旁边安装了一只拥抱圣诞树的大熊猫。 Moscow’s subway laid on a red Chinese-themed train and translated its map into Chinese. The city’s billboards and state television featured Mr. Xi’s “favorite catchphrases,” (“delicious soup is made by combining different ingredients” is one), and Chinese restaurants have been sprouting in cities across Russia. 莫斯科地铁设立了一列红色的中国主题列车，并将地铁路线图翻译成了中文。该市的广告牌和国家电视台上出现了习近平“最喜欢的名言”（“和羹之美，在于合异”就是其中之一），中餐馆在俄罗斯各城市如雨后春笋般涌现。 莫斯科的一块广告牌上显示着习近平“最喜欢的名言”。 Valentin Gogol, the founder of a company that supplies nannies for members of the Russian elite, said he had been scrambling to meet ever-growing demand for Chinese speakers. Salaries now run to $5,000 per month, he said, generally high by Russian standards, and still, “The process of recruiting has been quite hard.” 瓦伦丁·果戈利是一家为俄罗斯精英阶层提供保姆服务的公司创始人，他说他一直在努力满足对中文保姆日益增长的需求。他说，对于这样的人，现在的工资达到了每月5000美元，以俄罗斯的标准来看，这已经很高了，但“招聘的过程仍然相当艰难”。 English-speaking nannies are still the most popular, he said, but Chinese-speaking ones have replaced French speakers in second place. 他说，说英语的保姆仍然是最受欢迎的，但说汉语的保姆已经取代了说法语的保姆，排在第二位。 “People now see it as an additional second language to complement English,” said Mr. Gogol, whose company is still called English Nanny. “人们现在把中文看作补充英语的第二语言，”果戈利说。他的公司仍然叫做“英语保姆”。 Chinese cars are one increasingly visible sign of the Russian embrace of China. Cars made in China have flooded the Russian market, with more than 900,000 sold last year alone, according to Autostat, an auto market consultancy. That compared with about 115,000 in 2021. 中国汽车成为了俄罗斯青睐中国的一个日益显著的标识。汽车市场咨询公司Autostat的数据显示，中国制造的汽车已大量涌入俄罗斯市场，仅去年一年就售出逾90万辆。相比之下，2021年约为11.5万辆。 Sergei Stillavin, a Russian radio host and founder of a car blog on YouTube, used to travel around Europe to review European cars. Now almost all cars featured in his blog are Chinese. 俄罗斯电台主持人谢尔盖·斯蒂拉文是YouTube上一个汽车博客的创始人，过去，他经常在欧洲各地旅行，评论欧洲汽车。现在，他博客里几乎出现的都是中国品牌。 “BMW is still more prestigious,” he said, speaking about deeply entrenched preferences in Russia. “But I know people who switched from Porsche to Li Xiang,” a Chinese car brand now ubiquitous on Moscow’s streets. “宝马仍然更有声望，”他在谈到俄罗斯根深蒂固的偏好时说。“但我知道有人从保时捷转向了理想。”这个中国汽车品牌如今在莫斯科街头随处可见。 在莫斯科的中国主题公园拍摄婚纱照。 While there is undoubtedly much more enthusiasm for Chinese goods, there is still a lingering longing for Western products that have become increasingly difficult to obtain in recent years. 人们对中国货无疑热情高涨，但对西方产品的渴望仍挥之不去，近年来它们越来越难买到。 Taxi drivers in Chinese cars in Moscow say they would still rather buy a German car if it were the same price. And videos have circulated on social media poking fun at Chinese cars. In one, a Russian man presents a Chinese car as a gift to his girlfriend. As soon as she sees the stylish car, her face falls. 在莫斯科，开中国车的出租车司机表示，如果价格相同，他们仍宁愿买一辆德国车。社交媒体上流传着取笑中国车的视频。在一段视频中，一名俄罗斯男子将一辆中国车作为礼物送给女友。她一看到那辆时尚的汽车，脸就沉了下来。 “I hope you are joking,” she says. “I won’t drive a Chinese one, this is not a Porsche, or a Mercedes.” “我希望你是在开玩笑，”她说。“我不会开中国车的，这不是保时捷，也不是奔驰。” Western branding also remains common across the Russian capital. A new elite building complex in Moscow bears aspirational London-themed names like Knightsbridge Private Park complex and Belgravia, rather than ones evoking Shanghai or Beijing. And even a Chinese business cluster near Moscow is called GreenWood. 莫斯科街头的西方品牌依然随处可见。在莫斯科，新的精英建筑群使用的是令人向往的伦敦主题的名字，比如骑士桥私人公园综合楼和贝尔格莱维亚，而不是让人想起上海或北京的名字。甚至连莫斯科附近的一个中国商业楼群也被称为“格林伍德”。 “Red Silk,” a joint Russian-Chinese movie with Chinese and Russian spies battling Japanese enemies, Chinese nationalists and their British backers on a trans-Siberian train in 1927, was a box-office disaster despite state-sponsored advertising. And only one Chinese fashion brand, Ellassay, has replaced the Western luxury boutiques that used to dominate the storefront of GUM, Red Square’s department store. 中俄合拍的电影《红丝绸》(Red Silk)讲述了中俄特工在一列横贯西伯利亚的火车上与日本敌人、中国民族主义者及其英国支持者斗智斗勇的故事。在红场的百货商场GUM，只有一个中国时尚品牌歌力思取代了曾经占据黄金铺位的西方奢侈品精品店。 莫斯科GUM百货公司的中国时装品牌歌力思专卖店。 Aleksandr Grek, a Russian magazine editor and a China enthusiast with five children, said there were generational differences in how China was viewed by the young. 俄罗斯杂志编辑亚历山大·格列克是一位有五个孩子的中国迷。他说，年轻人对中国的看法存在代际差异。 His children over 14 are still more Western-oriented, but the younger ones know little about Western culture and are infatuated with Asia, he said. 他说，他14岁以上的孩子仍然更倾向于西方文化，但更年轻的孩子对西方文化知之甚少，他们迷恋亚洲。 “They don’t see anything that is made in the United States,” said Mr. Grek, 59, sipping green tea in a Moscow cafe and talking of his younger children. “Everything that surrounds them is made in China.” “他们看不到任何美国制造的东西，”59岁的格列克在莫斯科的一家咖啡馆里喝着绿茶，谈论着他年幼的孩子们。“他们周围的一切都是中国制造。” Mr. Grek’s children all studied Chinese. His 14-year-old daughter speaks it fluently and will spend the next summer in China living with a local family “just like children used to go to England” to improve their English. For Mr. Grek and his family, the reasoning is simple. 格列克的孩子们都学中文。他14岁的女儿能说一口流利的中文，明年夏天她将去中国和一个当地家庭一起生活，“就像孩子们以前（为提高英语水平）去英国一样”。对格列克和他的家人来说，理由很简单。 “China is our only friend now,” he said, listing technological fields where he sees China as the world’s leader, like solar power and artificial intelligence. “And it is becoming top country in the world.” “中国现在是我们唯一的朋友，”他说，并列出了他认为中国处于世界领先地位的科技领域，比如太阳能和人工智能。“它正在成为世界顶级强国。” 在红场自拍。自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，中国已成为克里姆林宫在公开场合的好朋友。 Other Russians are more skeptical, saying that the increased interest in China was likely a temporary marriage of convenience. 也有的俄罗斯人则持怀疑态度，他们说，对中国日益增长的兴趣可能是一场暂时的“利益联姻”。 Yulia Kuznetsova, a Chinese language and culture specialist, said she remembered when learning Mandarin was considered exotic and Sinologists were a fringe group. She said she thought that the China craze would end once relations with the West improved. 中国语言和文化专家尤利娅·库兹涅佐娃说，她记得当年学习普通话曾被认为是异国情调，汉学家是一个边缘群体。她说，她认为一旦与西方的关系改善，中国热就会消退。 “Deep down nothing has changed,” she said. For Russians, Ms. Kuznetsova said, China “is a foreign culture.” “在内心深处，什么都没有改变，”她说。库兹涅佐娃说，对俄罗斯人来说，中国“是一种异质文化”。 “Even the Arab world is much closer to us,” she said, citing Dubai as one place where Russians were flocking. “We can only be close with Europe because we are united by a culture that is similar or even the same.” “就连阿拉伯世界也离我们近得多，”她指出，迪拜也是俄罗斯人趋之若鹜的地方之一。“我们真正亲近的只能是欧洲，因为毕竟我们有着相似甚至几乎相同的文化。” 摄影：Nanna Heitmann Ivan Nechepurenko报道俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、高加索国家和中亚新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
PETER S. GOODMAN2025年7月1日Cocona Labs生产制造面料的化合物，销售给服装制造商。该公司正考虑将部分生产业务转移到中国，这恰恰与特朗普总统希望其关税政策所能达成的目标背道而驰。 Theo Stroomer for The New York Times In the debate over trade, stories about what’s left of the domestic textile industry tend to involve mills threatened by competition from China. But a company in Colorado called Cocona Labs has prospered by sending its products across the Pacific. 在有关贸易的争论中，那些关于美国纺织业奄奄一息的故事往往会提到受到中国竞争威胁的纺织厂。然而，一家名为Cocona Labs的科罗拉多公司却通过将产品出口到太平洋彼岸，把生意做得红红火火。 Cocona manufactures compounds used to make fabrics that are stitched into bedding, towels and clothing, especially for outdoor gear. The elements move moisture away from skin, making material warmer and faster drying. Cocona sends roughly two-thirds of the compounds it produces to China, where factories spin yarn, weave fabric and stitch linens and apparel. Many of the finished goods wind up back in the United States. Cocona生产用于制造面料的化合物，这些面料被制成床上用品、毛巾和衣物，尤其是户外装备。这些功能性成分能将水分从皮肤上带走，使材料更保暖、速干。Cocona将其生产的大约三分之二的化合物送往中国，那里的工厂负责纺纱、织布以及缝制亚麻制品和服装。许多成品最终又回到美国。 But the global trade war started by the Trump administration has shaken the economics of this business. Faced with uncertainty over tariffs, and especially retaliatory levies imposed by China, Cocona might start making changes. Among the possible actions: moving part of the production of its core offering, its so-called master batch made up of compounds, from the United States to factories in China. 但特朗普政府发起的全球贸易战动摇了该公司的经济基础。面对关税带来的不确定性，尤其是中国实施的报复性征税，Cocona可能会开始做出改变。可能的举措包括：将其核心产品（由化合物组成的所谓母料）的部分生产从美国转移到中国的工厂。 “We are actively in the process of doing that,” the company’s chief executive, Jeff Bowman, said from his home in Bend, Ore. 该公司首席执行官杰夫·鲍曼在俄勒冈州本德的家中表示：“我们正在积极实施这一计划。” President Trump has sold his trade war as the way to force international businesses to abandon China and bring factory work to the United States. Yet the experience of this small business, one with 20 employees around the world, attests to how tariffs can have the opposite effect, compelling the company to consider shifting its work to the other side of the Pacific. 特朗普将他的贸易战宣传为迫使跨国企业放弃中国、将工厂迁回美国的一种手段。然而，这家在全球拥有20名员工的小企业的经历证明，关税可能产生相反的效果，迫使该公司考虑将业务转移到太平洋彼岸。 “Is that crazy, or what?” Mr. Bowman said. “太疯狂了，对不对？”鲍曼说。 He is especially frustrated that the disruption of his business is playing out in the service of a goal that he dismisses as fanciful. 尤其让他感到不满的是，他的生意受到干扰是为了一个被他斥为异想天开的目标。 “There’s no way in hell that those garment factories and bedding factories are coming back to the United States in any significant quantity,” he said. “Unless American consumers are willing to pay a lot more for their goods.” “那些服装厂和床上用品厂绝对不可能大量回到美国，”他说。“除非美国消费者愿意花更多钱购买这些商品。” Cocona利用从美国西南部开采的矿物，将它们制成颗粒。然后，位于上中西部州和东南部州的工厂将这些颗粒制成母料，用于制造床上用品、毛巾和服装的面料。Cocona将其生产的约三分之二的化合物运往中国，但鉴于关税问题的不确定性，公司首席执行官杰夫·鲍曼一直在研究如何将其母粒的某些生产阶段转移到中国或印度。 At 72, Mr. Bowman is a veteran of two worlds directly relevant to his current perch: mountaineering and the pursuit of ways to keep climbers more comfortable. An outdoor enthusiast, he worked for Bill Gore, the fabric pioneer who developed Gore-Tex, the lightweight, breathable and waterproof material. 现年72岁的鲍曼在两个与他目前的工作直接相关的领域有着丰富的经验：登山运动以及寻求让登山者更舒适的方法。作为一名户外运动爱好者，他曾为面料先驱比尔·戈尔工作。戈尔开发了轻便、透气、防水的材料Gore-Tex。 He thought he was retired, living and rock climbing in Spain, when he was recruited to oversee Cocona in 2013. The company had been in business since the early 1990s. 2013年被Cocona请来掌舵之前，他以为自己住在西班牙，享受攀岩的退休状态会一直继续下去。这家公司成立于20世纪90年代初。 Cocona’s operations are shrouded in trade secrets, making Mr. Bowman meager with details. In general terms, the process takes minerals mined in the American Southwest and sends them to the Mid-Atlantic, where they are turned into particles. Factories in the Upper Midwest and Southeast then turn those particles into master batch. Cocona exports those wares to companies that make yarn in China, Taiwan, India, Portugal, Turkey, Spain and El Salvador. Cocona的业务多为商业机密，鲍曼对其中的细节讳莫如深。总的来说流程是这样的：从美国西南部开采矿物，运到美国的中大西洋地区，在那里将它们制成颗粒。然后，位于上中西部州和东南部州的工厂将这些颗粒制成母料。Cocona将这些产品出口给中国、台湾、印度、葡萄牙、土耳其、西班牙和萨尔瓦多生产纱线的企业。 The trade war delivered by Mr. Trump on his return to office in January did not catch the company by surprise. Six years ago, as animosity between the United States and China intensified, Cocona began developing new markets in India. But its partnerships in China, some forged after decades of collaboration, could not be replaced. 特朗普今年1月重返白宫后发起的贸易战并没有让该公司感到意外。六年前，美中之间的敌意加剧，Cocona开始在印度开发新市场。但它在中国的合作伙伴有些保持了几十年的关系，不可能被取代。 “The infrastructure in China for textiles, there’s nothing really that compares to it anywhere else in the world,” Mr. Bowman said. 鲍曼说：“中国的纺织业基础设施在世界上真的没有其他地方能与之匹敌。” In April, Mr. Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 percent. Beijing responded by elevating tariffs on American imports to 125 percent. Mr. Bowman had a problem. Fortunately, he discovered an immediate solution. His warehouse in Shanghai held enough master batch to satisfy orders without bringing in additional shipments. 4月，特朗普将中国进口商品的关税提高到145%。北京方面则将美国进口商品的关税提高到125%。鲍曼遇到了麻烦。幸运的是，他立即找到了解决方案。他在上海的仓库里存放的母料足以满足订单需求，无需额外发货。 In the months since, amid talk of trade negotiations, the Trump administration has lowered its tariffs on Chinese imports to 30 percent, while Beijing has reduced its retaliatory taxes to 10 percent. Still, Mr. Bowman remains concerned that fresh hostility could erupt without warning. 此后的几个月里，随着各方开始谈及举行贸易谈判，特朗普政府将对中国进口商品的关税降至30%，而北京则将其报复性关税降至10%。尽管如此，鲍曼仍然担心新的敌对行动可能随时爆发。 His customers are holding off on purchases, awaiting the clarity of future trade deals. 他的客户正在推迟采购，等待未来贸易协定的明确。 “Nobody’s ordering goods all through the supply chain,” he said, having just returned from a three-week reconnaissance trip to Asia. This was the situation everywhere, he added. “整个供应链上都没有人下单，”他说。他刚结束为期三周的亚洲考察之旅。他还表示，各地都是这种情况。 Faced with this threat, Mr. Bowman is slowing a series of projects aimed at expanding into new product lines. He is holding back on laboratory work and product testing. 面对这一威胁，鲍曼放缓了一系列旨在拓展新产品线的项目。他暂停了实验室的工作和产品测试。 “We’re all waiting to see what’s going to happen,” he said. But he could not wait to configure alternative plans. “Hope is not a strategy,” he added. “我们都在观望会发生什么，”他说。但他不能坐等结果，只能提前制定备选方案。“不能把愿望当成策略，”他补充道。 With that in mind, Mr. Bowman has been looking into how to shift some of the manufacturing stages of his master batch to Asia — to either China or India. That way, he can sell the product to his Chinese customers without tariffs. 考虑到这一点，鲍曼一直在研究如何将其母料的某些生产阶段转移到亚洲——无论是中国还是印度。这样，他就可以绕开关税，将产品销售给他的中国客户。 “We could pull the trigger on that in 30 days,” he said. “我们可以在30天内启动这个计划，”他说。 He would be taking business from his American suppliers and moving it to Asia — all because of a policy aimed at bringing jobs home. 他将把业务从美国的供应商转移到亚洲——而这一切，都是因为一项旨在将就业带回美国的政策。 Peter S. Goodman是一名报道全球经济的记者。他撰写有关经济和地缘政治的交叉议题，尤其关注着对普通人及其生活生计的影响。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
储百亮, AMY CHANG CHIEN2025年7月1日台湾总统赖清在高雄视察海巡署的年度演习，摄于今年6月。 Ann Wang/Reuters President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan has been on a speaking tour that he says is aimed at uniting the island against threats from China. But critics say the campaign risks backfiring, deepening political divisions at home while provoking an angry response from Beijing. 台湾总统赖清德正在全台举行巡回演讲，他称此举旨在团结岛内民众抵御来自中国的威胁。但批评人士称，这个做法可能适得其反，加剧岛内的政治分歧，同时引发北京的愤怒反应。 Mr. Lai is battling on two fronts: China, which claims Taiwan as its territory and threatens to take it by force, and Taiwan’s opposition parties, which control the legislature and have tried to curb his administration’s policies and powers. 赖清德正在两条战线上作战：一个是宣称对台湾拥有主权，并威胁要用武力将其收回的中国；另一个是控制着台湾立法机构的反对党，它试图对赖清德政府的政策和权力进行限制。 The president’s response has been what he calls “Ten Speeches on National Unity,” but the campaign and the heated responses that it has generated are exposing the very divisions that Mr. Lai says he wants to heal. The contention reflects rifts over Taiwan’s identity, its fraught relationship with China, and how to keep the island secure. 赖清德的应对之道是发表其所谓的“团结国家十讲”，但演讲及其引发的激烈反应正在让赖清德声称他想弥合的分歧暴露无遗。这场争论反映了人们在台湾的身份认同、与中国的紧张关系，以及如何维护台湾安全等问题上的分歧。 In the three speeches that Mr. Lai has made so far, he has argued that Taiwan’s history, culture and democratic politics are incompatible with Communist-ruled China. 赖清德在目前已发表的三个演讲中提出，台湾的历史、文化和民主政治与共产党统治的中国不相配。 China threatens to “blur the national identity of our people,” Mr. Lai said in his latest speech on Sunday. “China exploits Taiwan’s good will and opportunities for exchanges to carry out united front work and infiltration,” he said, using terms that refer to China’s efforts to advance Beijing’s agenda in the world. 中国“混淆国人对国家认同之威胁”，赖清德在周日发表的最近一个讲话中说。“中国利用台湾的善意、交流的机会，进行统战渗透，”他说，他指的是中国在世界上推动北京议程的努力。 In his first speech, Mr. Lai emphasized Taiwan’s history as a Pacific Ocean island, not as a sometime outpost of imperial China. The People’s Republic of China that Mao Zedong founded in 1949 had never occupied Taiwan, he said. With its own government, military and foreign policy, he added, “of course, Taiwan is a country.” 在首次演讲中，赖清德强调了台湾作为一个太平洋岛屿的历史，而非中华帝国曾经的边远前哨。他说，毛泽东1949年成立的中华人民共和国从未占领过台湾。他还说，台湾有自己的政府、军队，以及自己的外交政策，“台湾当然是一个国家。” Mr. Lai’s declarations have set off an escalating war of words with Beijing. Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the Chinese government office that deals with Taiwan, said on Monday that Mr. Lai had “completely abandoned his heritage and was betraying the nation.” The Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party newspaper, said that Mr. Lai was treating the island’s 23 million people as “cannon fodder for Taiwan independence.” 赖清德的这个说法引发了中国政府不断升级的口水战。中国的国台办发言人朱凤莲周一表示，赖清德“完全是数典忘祖、背弃民族”。中共小报《环球时报》称赖清德拉台湾的“2300万人做他的‘台独炮灰’”。 And while Mr. Lai has been making his speeches, China has been hosting Taiwan’s former president, Ma Ying-jeou of the main opposition Nationalist Party, who supports an eventual peaceful merger between China and Taiwan. Last week, Chinese officials took Mr. Ma to Dunhuang, an ancient Buddhist site in northwest China, a gesture designed to make the point that Taiwan is a part of China’s heritage. 在赖清德发表这些讲话的时候，中国一直在接待台湾前总统、台湾主要的反对党国民党前主席马英九，马英九支持两岸最终实现和平统一。上周，中国官员把马英九带到敦煌参观这个位于中国西北部的佛教古迹，以此表明台湾是中国传统的一部分。 China has furiously denounced Mr. Lai, who has been in power since May last year, accusing him of pursuing outright independence for Taiwan — a red line for Chinese leaders. The stakes are high: Beijing, which already conducts regular air and naval operations near Taiwan, may use Mr. Lai’s speeches to justify increasing its military pressure on Taiwan. 自从赖清德去年5月就任台湾总统以来，中国已多次对他予以强烈谴责，指责他寻求台湾的彻底独立，这是中国领导人的红线。他的这些讲话有巨大风险：中国政府已定期在台湾周边的水域和空中展开军事活动，它也许会把赖清德的讲话作为加大中国对台湾施加军事压力的借口。 The president’s critics in Taiwan are also harsh, accusing him of stoking divisions and jeopardizing the fragile status quo with China. 赖清德在台湾的批评者也措辞严厉，指责他加深分歧，损害脆弱的台海现状。 “He’s not only failing to unite Taiwan’s various ethnic groupings; on the contrary, I think he’s actually increasing and heightening divisiveness and polarization,” Weng Hsiao-ling, a law professor who is also an opposition lawmaker, said in an interview. “他不仅没有把台湾的不同族群团结起来，我认为他实际上反而加大、加剧了分歧和意见的两极分化，”在立法院代表反对党的法学教授翁晓玲在接受采访时说。 The bitter rhetoric reflects the deadlock between Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party and the Nationalist Party, which favors building ties with Beijing. A smaller party, the Taiwan People’s Party, is also hostile to Mr. Lai, and together the two opposition parties control the majority in the 113-member legislature. They have repeatedly blocked Mr. Lai’s proposals, including the budget. 这些激烈的言辞反映了赖清德领导的民进党与倾向于与中国建立关系的国民党之间的僵局。更小的反对党——台湾民众党也对赖清德抱有敌意。这两个反对党在113个席位的立法院控制着多数席位。他们已多次阻止了赖清德的提案获得通过，包括预算案在内。 In response, Mr. Lai’s party has endorsed a recall campaign against Nationalist members in Taiwan’s legislature. 作为回应，赖清德的政党支持一场针对立法院中的国民党立法委员进行罢免投票的运动。 Political experts say Mr. Lai is hoping to energize his supporters to win back control of the legislature after recall votes scheduled for late July. Up to two dozen Nationalist Party lawmakers may lose their seats if the recall votes gather enough support, and special elections for fresh candidates would follow. 罢免投票将于7月底举行，政治专家们说，赖清德希望激励他的支持者们夺回立法院的控制权。如果罢免投票得到足够多支持的话，至少有20名国民党立法委员可能会失去席位，然后需要通过补选来选出新的立法委员。 “He is trying to fire his base of support as much as possible in order to ensure the recalls are successful,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University in Taipei. He added that for now “Lai’s only weapon is his microphone. He is unable to pass policy, and the policy changes he can make are all very limited. Truly, the only meaningful agency he has as president is when he is making a speech.” “他正试图尽可能地激励他的基本盘，以确保罢免投票成功，”台北的国立台湾大学政治学助理教授南乐(Lev Nachman)说。他还说，目前“赖清德唯一的武器就是他的麦克风。他无法让政策获得通过，他能进行的政策改变非常有限。作为总统，他能起真正作用的唯一方式就是发表讲话”。 The divisions reflect longstanding disagreements about Taiwan’s history and identity. 这些分歧反映了民进党与国民党在台湾历史和身份认同问题上的长期分歧。 Mr. Lai and his supporters in the “green” camp emphasize that Taiwan is separate from China, historically and politically. Mr. Lai has also accused Taiwan’s opposition of eroding Taiwan’s security and democracy. The Nationalists and their supporters in the “blue” camp argue that stronger links with China can be help maintain peace. 赖清德及其“绿营”支持者们强调，台湾与中国在历史上和政治上一直处于分离状态。赖清德还指责台湾的反对党侵蚀台湾的安全和民主。国民党及其“蓝营”支持者们则认为，加强与中国的关系有助于维护和平。 The rival views of Taiwan’s status are difficult to reconcile, said Wang Horng-luen, a scholar at Academia Sinica, a Taiwanese research institute. 台湾研究机构中央研究院的学者汪宏伦说，很难调和有关台湾地位问题的对立观点。 “Because of Taiwan’s special historical context and international setting, the narratives about Taiwan’s sovereignty are very hard to describe clearly,” he said. “No matter whether it’s the Taiwan-centered one, or the China-centered one, they both exclude the other group.” “由于台湾的特殊历史背景和所处的国际环境，有关台湾主权的叙事很难清晰地表述出来，”他说。“无论是以台湾为中心的叙事，还是以中国为中心的叙事，它们都不把对方包括进来。” 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
TIFFANY MAY2025年7月1日陈志森（音）曾因参与学生政治团体的活动被当局根据国家安全法逮捕，当时他20岁。 Billy H.C. Kwok for The New York Times There was the software engineering major who crouched behind umbrellas to dodge rubber bullets. The social worker who marched with other pro-democracy protesters. And the student who handed out leaflets and made speeches. 一个是蹲在雨伞后躲避橡皮子弹的软件工程专业学生，一个是与其他民主抗议者一起游行的社工，还有一个是向行人分发传单、发表演讲的学生。 All three had joined the Hong Kong protests that erupted in 2019, hoping for more democracy. Instead, the movement was crushed, and they, like many others, were arrested, sentenced and sent to prison. 他们三人都是香港2019年爆发的抗议活动的参加者，都曾对更多的民主抱有希望。但这场运动最终遭到镇压，他们和许多人一样，被逮捕、判刑，送进了监狱。 More than 10,000 people were arrested during the monthslong uprising that began as peaceful mass rallies but grew sometimes violent as the police responded with force. Almost a quarter of those were convicted of crimes that include rioting and national security offenses. 那些以和平的大规模集会开始的抗议活动持续了几个月，但随着警方用武力回应，抗议活动有时也变得暴力。抗议活动期间有近1万人被逮捕，其中近四分之一的人被判有罪，罪行包括暴乱和危害国家安全。 香港2019年夏天的民主抗议活动吸引了很多民众参加。 China’s national security crackdown on Hong Kong, which began five years ago, has quelled protests and effectively outlawed public dissent. Many of the protesters have moved overseas or gone back to their lives. 中国从五年前开始以维护国家安全的名义对香港进行镇压，平息了那些抗议活动，实际上用法律禁止了公开发表异见。许多参加过抗议活动的人已移居海外，或回到了他们以前的生活。 But for those convicted of crimes, moving on has been hard. Some have found themselves shut out from their former careers; others feel stranded as their peers have moved on. 但重返正常生活对那些留有案底的人来说并不容易。他们中有些人发现自己被以前的职业拒之门外，还有些人因为同龄人已迈入新生活，而感到自己被困在了原地。 Here are the stories of three of them: 下面是他们中的三个人的故事： A Career Derailed 职业受阻 Fung, the social worker, who asked to be identified only by part of her name, had been arrested at a largely peaceful street protest. A conviction and prison sentence for rioting brought her five-year career to a halt. 社工阿芳（她要求本文只用她的部分名字）是在一次基本和平的街头抗议活动中被捕的。她因暴乱罪而获刑入狱，导致她五年的职业生涯就此中断。 Prison brought other hardships too, as when her father’s cancer took a turn for the worse. She was told she could only see him on his deathbed or attend his funeral. The hospital visit she chose lasted only ten minutes. When her father reached for her handcuffed hands, the officers forbade contact and ushered her away. 由于父亲癌症恶化，身陷囹圄也让她遭受了其他苦难。监狱只允许她或在父亲临终前见一面，或去参加他的葬礼。她选择了去医院探视父亲，但只获准停留十分钟。父亲想伸手摸摸她戴着手铐的手时，警察不允许接触，并将她带走。 尽管拥有多年工作经验和硕士学位，阿芳一直不能重新获得继续从事社会工作的执照。 Billy H.C. Kwok for The New York Times She applied to restore her license as a social worker, both while in prison and after her release, but was rejected despite having referrals from former professors and colleagues. 她曾在狱中和获释后申请复发社工执照，尽管有以前的教授和同事的推荐，但均被拒绝。 “I feel I have shouldered my responsibility,” she said. “Now I want to move on and become a part of society again.” “我觉得我已经尽了我的责任，”她说。“我现在想从头开始，重新成为社会的一员。” She said she would keep trying, and has been working as a concierge for a luxury hotel in the meantime. While many of her friends have emigrated, Fung is determined to stay put. She has no regrets. 她目前在一家豪华酒店当礼宾员，但表示会继续申请社工执照。虽然很多朋友都移民了，但阿芳决心留下来。她不后悔。 “I have very deep feelings for Hong Kong,” she said. “I have hope that it will get better.” “我对香港有很深的感情，”她说。“我对香港将变好抱有希望。” Missed Opportunities 失去的机会 Chan Chi Sum was 20 when he was arrested and sentenced to prison for conspiracy to incite subversion. He had been a leader in a student group that had drawn the attention of the authorities for running a street booth where they handed out fliers and warned that a government Covid contact-tracing app could be used for surveillance. 陈志森（音）被捕入狱时年仅20岁，罪名是串谋煽动颠覆罪。他曾是一个学生团体的负责人，该团体引起当局的注意是因为他们在街头摆摊散发传单，警告人们，政府用来追踪新冠病毒接触者的手机应用程序可能被用于监控。 Since his release, he has been trying to make up for the two years he lost behind bars. 出狱后，他一直在试图弥补狱中失去的两年时间。 But some old friends have kept their distance. One who had plans to join the civil service sent him a text message but did not make plans to meet. Eventually, they stopped talking. 一些过去的朋友与他刻意保持距离。一名曾有加入公务员队伍计划的朋友给他发过短信，但没有与他见面的打算。最终，他们停止了联系。 Many of his peers who had fought for democracy alongside him had moved on. He kept quiet at high school reunions when his former classmates discussed plans to buy property and have children. 许多曾与他一起争取民主的同龄人都已开始关心别的事情。在高中同学聚会时，昔日的同窗讨论买房子、生孩子的计划时，他只能沉默不语。 陈志森一直试图弥补在狱中失去的两年，但因为朋友们开始关心别的事情，他觉得自己被甩在了后面。 “They all completed their degrees and became the people they wanted to be. But I didn’t get to become who I wanted to be,” Mr. Chan said. “他们都完成了学业，成了他们想成为的人。但我没能成为自己想成为的人，”陈先生说。 In order to save up for further study, he worked as many odd jobs as he could find, including as a mover, a busboy and a video editor. He also earned a license to become a construction worker in case universities rejected him because of his record. 为了攒钱继续深造，他打过各种各样的零工，当过搬运工、餐馆服务员，还当过视频编辑师。他还拿了建筑工人执照，以备大学因案底而拒绝录取他时，能有一条出路。 He is now pursuing a degree in media and culture and hopes to make videos and documentaries that would bear witness to the changing city. “I can show others the Hong Kong I see through my eyes,” he said. 他现在正在攻读媒体与文化方向的学位，希望用制作视频和纪录片的方式来见证这座城市的变迁。“我可以向别人展示我眼中的香港，”他说。 Enforced Silence 不得不沉默 Tsui, the software engineering major, left prison to find a city far different than the one he remembered. 软件工程专业毕业的崔先生出狱后，发现香港已变得与他记忆中的样子大不相同。 Tsui, who asked to be identified only by his last name, served almost two and a half years for rioting. Upon his release, he had initially wanted to speak out about the poor prison conditions, but his friends warned him against it. 崔先生要求本文只给出他的姓。他因暴乱罪入狱近两年半。获释后，他最初曾想公开揭露监狱中的恶劣条件，但朋友们警告他不要那么做。 Tsui feels frustrated that many who joined him in protesting seem to have set aside their political ideals and were even traveling regularly to mainland China for work or fun. 让他感到沮丧的是，许多曾和他一起抗议的人似乎已搁置了政治理想，甚至频繁往返内地工作旅游。 让崔先生感到沮丧的是，许多曾和他一起抗议的人似乎搁置了当初的政治理想。但在不再容忍异见的香港，他也学会了开始自我审查。 He landed a job as an entry-level system administrator in a large private company. He has tried to keep his time in prison a secret from new acquaintances. 他在一家私营大公司找到了一份当系统管理员的初级工作。他还竭力向新同事隐瞒服刑经历。 But office talk about movies and songs popular when he was in prison made him feel left out, and jokes comparing the work grind to prison did not seem funny. He also learned to dodge questions like why he avoided visiting mainland China or downloading Chinese apps like WeChat. 但每当办公室里有人讨论那些在他入狱期间流行起来的电影和歌曲时，他会感到格格不入。同事将苦差事与监狱生活作比较的玩笑也让他笑不起来。他还学会了避开某些话题，比如他为什么不去内地，或为什么不用微信等中国应用程序。 Now, he censors himself during conversations, and has started warning other friends to be careful about making comments critical of the government on social media. 现在，他在与他人聊天时会自我审查，并开始警告其他朋友在社交媒体上发表批评政府的言论要谨慎。 “We have all learned how to dance within the red lines,” he said. “我们都已学会了如何在红线内跳舞，”他说。 Tiffany May是时报驻香港记者，报道香港和更广泛地区的政治、商业和文化议题。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ROGER COHEN2025年6月30日上周二早晨的德黑兰，伊朗与以色列达成了停火协议。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times Roxana Saberi felt like she was back behind bars in Tehran. As she watched Israel’s bombing of Evin prison, the notorious detention facility at the core of Iran’s political repression, she shuddered at memories of solitary confinement, relentless interrogation, fabricated espionage charges and a sham trial during her 100-day incarceration in 2009. 罗克萨娜·萨贝里感觉自己仿佛又回到了德黑兰的监狱。当看到以色列轰炸埃文监狱时，她对自己2009年遭到关押的100天里所经历的单独监禁、无休止的审讯、捏造的间谍罪名和走过场的审判的记忆不寒而栗。臭名昭著的埃文监狱是伊朗政治镇压的核心。 Like many Iranians in the diaspora and at home, Ms. Saberi wavered, torn between her dreams of a government collapse that would free the country’s immense potential and her concern for family and friends as the civilian death toll mounted. Longings for liberation and for a cease-fire vied with each other. 像许多海内外的伊朗人一样，萨贝里也陷入了矛盾：一方面她梦想着伊朗现政府垮台，从而释放这个国家的巨大潜力；另一方面随着平民伤亡人数不断攀升，她担心家人和朋友的安危。对解放的渴望和对停火的期盼相互交织、牵扯。 “For a moment, I imagined seeing Iran again in my lifetime,” said Ms. Saberi, 48, a dual Iranian and American citizen and author who has taken a break from her journalistic career. “I also thought how ridiculous it was that the Islamic Republic wasted decades accusing thousands of women’s rights advocates, dissidents and others of being spies, when they couldn’t catch the real spies.” “有那么一瞬间，我想象着自己有生之年能回到伊朗，”48岁的萨贝里拥有伊朗和美国双重国籍，是一名暂时停止了记者生涯的作家。“我还想到，伊斯兰共和国几十年来指控成千上万的女权人士、异议人士等等是间谍，结果却抓不到真正的间谍，这多么荒谬。” Those spies, mainly from Israel’s Mossad foreign intelligence service, penetrated Iran’s highest political and military echelons. The question now is what a shaken Islamic Republic in dire economic straits will do with what President Masoud Pezeshkian, a moderate, has called “a golden opportunity for change.” That moment is also one of extreme, even existential, risk brought on by the 12-day Israeli-Iranian war that the United States briefly joined. 那些间谍主要来自以色列的情报部门摩萨德，他们渗透进了伊朗最高政治和军事阶层。现在的问题是，一个在经济困境中摇摇欲坠的伊斯兰共和国将如何利用总统马苏德·佩泽什基安所说的“变革的黄金机会”。这一机会也伴随着极端的，甚至关乎存亡的风险，源于一度有美国参与的一场为期12天的以伊战争。 The military campaign flirted with dislodging the clerical autocracy that has made uranium enrichment the symbol of Iran’s national pride, but stopped short of killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, even though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had said that the ayatollah’s death would “end the conflict.” The 46-year-old Islamic Republic limps on. 这场军事行动有意推翻将铀浓缩视为伊朗民族自豪象征的神权专制政权，但未能杀死86岁的伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊，尽管以色列总理内塔尼亚胡曾表示，哈梅内伊的死将“结束冲突”。成立46年的伊斯兰共和国仍在蹒跚前行。 德黑兰民众手持伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及其前任的照片，摄于4月。 It does so despite the collapse of its “axis of resistance” that was formed through the funding, at vast expense, of anti-Western proxies from Lebanon to Yemen; despite the devastating bombing of its equally exorbitant nuclear facilities that never produced a bomb and scarcely lit a lightbulb; and despite the humiliation of surrendering the skies above Iran to its enemies. 与此同时，伊朗斥巨资资助从黎巴嫩到也门的反西方代理人，但其“抵抗轴心”已经瓦解；同样耗资巨大的核设施遭到毁灭性轰炸，这些设施不仅从未造出原子弹，甚至连个灯泡都没点亮过；伊朗还将领空拱手让给敌人，颜面尽失。 Yet Mr. Khamenei, as the guardian of the theocratic anti-Western revolution that triumphed in 1979, sees himself as the victor. “The Islamic Republic won,” he said in a video broadcast on Thursday from a secret location, laying to rest rumors of his demise. 然而，作为1979年取得胜利的反西方神权革命的守护者，哈梅内伊认为自己是胜利者。他在周四从某个秘密地点发布的视频中说：“伊斯兰共和国赢了。”这平息了有关他已死的传言。 His is a survival game dosed with prudence that now faces the greatest test of his 36 years in power. 他玩的是一场谨慎的生存游戏，现在面临着他执政36年来最大的考验。 “To understand Iran and Khamenei and the people around him is to understand that the Islamic Republic’s survival is always a victory,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a London think tank. 伦敦智库查塔姆研究所中东和北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基尔说：“要理解伊朗、哈梅内伊和他身边的人，就要明白伊斯兰共和国的生存永远是一种胜利。” Revolution at a Crossroads 革命的十字路口 Already, tensions over how to address the crisis brought on by the war are evident. 这场战争引发的危机如何解决，各方之间的紧张关系已经显现。 President Pezeshkian appears to favor a liberalizing makeover, repairing relations with the West through a possible nuclear deal. He has spoken in recent days of “an opportunity to change our views on governance.” 佩泽什基安总统似乎倾向于自由化改革，通过可能达成的核协议修复与西方的关系。他近日提到了“改变我们的治理观的机会”。 美国袭击伊朗核设施后，伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽什基安现身德黑兰抗议现场。 It was not clear what he meant, but many in Iran favor strengthening elected institutions and making the supreme leader more of a figurehead than the ultimate font of authority. They seek an Islamic Republic that is more of a republic, where women are empowered and a younger generation no longer feels oppressed by a gerontocratic theological system. 虽然不清楚他究竟是什么意思，但许多伊朗人赞成加强民选体制，让最高领袖更多地成为一个象征性角色，而不是最高权威。他们寻求一个更具共和国性质的伊斯兰共和国，让女性拥有权力，让年轻一代不再感到被一个年迈的神权体制所压迫。 Mr. Khamenei insisted that the Israeli and American attack on nuclear facilities had failed “to achieve anything significant.” But Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi seemed to question that judgment, saying on Thursday that the country’s nuclear facilities had sustained “significant and serious damage.” 哈梅内伊坚称，以色列和美国对核设施的打击“没有取得任何重大成果”。但外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格希似乎对这一判断提出质疑，他在上周四表示，伊朗的核设施遭到“严重损毁”。 Hardliners see any disunity as a danger signal. They believe concessions presage collapse. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, 69 years after its formation, and the “color revolutions” that brought Western democracy to post-Soviet states, deeply affected Mr. Khamenei and his entourage. 强硬派将任何不团结视为危险信号。他们认为让步预示着垮台。1991年苏联在成立69年后的解体、将西方民主带到后苏联国家的“颜色革命”都对哈梅内伊及其手下产生了深远的影响。 They are suspicious of any nuclear deal, and adamant that Iran must retain the right to enrich uranium on its soil, which Israel and the United States have said is unacceptable. They are also strongly represented in the country’s single most powerful institution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. 他们对任何核协议都持怀疑态度，并坚持认为伊朗必须保留在本土进行铀浓缩的权利，而以色列和美国表示这是不可接受的。他们在伊朗最具权势的机构伊斯兰革命卫队中也拥有强大的影响力。 The Guards number 150,000 to 190,000 members, Ms. Vakil said. With control over vast swaths of the economy, they have a deep vested interest in the government’s survival. They are the kind of large institutional buffer that President Bashar al-Assad in Syria lacked before his downfall last year. 瓦基尔说，革命卫队有15万到19万名成员。他们控制着相当部分的伊朗经济，这个政府的继续存在给他们带来大量既得利益。去年垮台的叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德缺乏的就是他们这种巨大的体制缓冲机制。 Already, as it did in 2009 when a large-scale uprising threatened the toppling of the Islamic Republic, Iran has embarked on a crackdown involving hundreds of arrests, at least three executions, and the deployment of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia in Kurdish and other restive areas. 就像2009年大规模的抗议活动威胁推翻伊斯兰共和国时一样，伊朗已经开始了镇压，数以百计人被捕，至少三人遭处决，并在库尔德和其他动荡地区部署了革命卫队和巴斯基民兵。 1月在德黑兰举行的阅兵式上，巴斯基民兵组织成员列队行进。 Iranians have seen this movie before. Some wonder what the war was for if they are to face another bludgeoning. “The people want to know who is to blame for multiple defeats, but there is no leader to take on the regime,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a prominent political scientist in the United Arab Emirates. “A weak Islamic Republic could hang on four or five years.” 伊朗人以前目睹过这一幕。一些人想知道，如果他们要再次面对这种打击，那么这场战争的意义何在。“人们想知道谁应该为多次失败负责，但没有领导人能够挑战这个政权，”阿联酋著名政治科学家阿卜杜勒卡勒克·阿卜杜拉说。“一个虚弱的伊斯兰共和国可能还是能维持四五年。” This weakness appears deep. The “victory” claimed by Mr. Khamenei cannot disguise the fact that Iran is now a nation with near zero deterrence. 这种虚弱似乎根深蒂固。哈梅内伊宣称的“胜利”无法掩盖一个事实：伊朗现在是一个威慑力几乎为零的国家。 “I would imagine that deep in his bunker, Khamenei’s priority must be how to rebuild a deterrence that was based on the nuclear program, the missile program and armed proxies, all now in shreds,” said Jeffrey Feltman, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and, as United Nations under secretary-general for political affairs in 2012, one of the few Americans to have met the supreme leader. 华盛顿布鲁金斯学会访问学者杰弗里·费尔特曼说：“我想，在掩体深处，哈梅内伊的优先事项必定是重建威慑力，这种威慑力基于核计划、导弹计划和武装代理人，而现在这一切都已经土崩瓦解。”2012年担任联合国主管政治事务的副秘书长的费尔特曼，是为数不多见过这位最高领袖的美国人之一。 “Khamenei was obsessed with the mendacity and belligerence of the United States,” Mr. Feltman recalled. “His eyes were benevolent, but his words, expressed in a quiet, dull monotone, were anything but benevolent.” 费尔特曼回忆道：“哈梅内伊坚信美国满嘴谎言，而且好战。他的眼神是亲切的，但他以平静、低沉的单调语气说出的话，绝不亲切。” Saberi’s hopes rose and fell during the recent fighting as she sat in her parents’ home in North Dakota. Against her better instincts, she found herself digging out her Iranian passport as the 12 days passed, and considering renewing it. 随着最近战事的发展，身在北达科他州父母家中的萨贝里时而燃起希望，时而又陷入绝望。尽管她本能地觉得不妥，但随着这12天过去，她发现自己找出了自己的伊朗护照，考虑拿去换新。 She has not visited Iran in the 16 years since her release, knowing that return, as she put it, “would be a one-way ticket.” But the tug of her second home, Iran, where she lived for six years, endures. 自获释以来，她在16年里没有回过伊朗，因为正如她所说，她知道回去“将是一张单程票”。但她对第二故乡伊朗的思念之情依然存在，她曾在那里生活了六年。 1979年，德黑兰，时任最高领袖霍梅尼（现任领袖哈梅内伊的前任）祝福民众。 “Iran’s in our heart, it’s in our blood, there is nowhere in the world like it, and I know so many Iranians in the diaspora who would go back and contribute if the regime falls,” she said. “My dad, in his 80s, spends his time translating Persian poetry.” 她说：“伊朗在我们的心里，在我们的血液里，世界上没有哪个地方能像它一样，我知道很多身居海外的伊朗人，如果政权垮台，他们会回去贡献力量。我父亲80多岁了，他把时间都花在翻译波斯诗歌上。” Roger Cohen是时报巴黎分社社长，负责报道法国及其他地区新闻。在40多年的记者生涯中，他报道过黎巴嫩、波斯尼亚和乌克兰的战争，以及以色列和加沙之间的战争。他在时报担任过记者、国际新闻编辑和专栏作家。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
JESSICA ROY2025年6月30日 If your Labubu doll has more than nine teeth, or if it came in a box with a shiny bright finish, it may not be a Labubu at all. It may be a “Lafufu.” 如果你的Labubu玩偶牙齿超过九颗，或者装在一个色彩闪亮的盒子里，它可能根本不是Labubu。没准是“Lafufu”。 Knockoffs of the wildly popular elflike doll, which are collectively called “the Monsters” and are sold exclusively by the Chinese toy retailer Pop Mart, have become almost as popular as the real thing — and they are much easier to find. 这种大受欢迎的精灵玩偶统称“小怪兽”，由中国玩具零售商泡泡玛特独家销售，其仿冒品几乎和真品一样受欢迎，而且更容易找到。 Many of the real Labubus come in blind boxes with limited availability, so you don’t know which one you’re going to get until you open it, fueling a sense of scarcity and surprise that adds to the appeal — and a growing resale market, where the dolls can go for much more than their $20 to $30 retail price range. As key chains, the dolls have been wholeheartedly adopted by the fashion set; it’s not uncommon to see a $20 Labubu hanging from a $20,000 Birkin. 许多正品Labubu都装在盲盒里，限量供应，所以打开之前你不知道自己会得到哪一个，这种稀缺和惊喜的感觉增加了Labubu的魅力，也早就了一个不断增长的转售市场，在那这个市场上，这些玩偶的售价远超20到30美元的零售价。作为钥匙链，这些玩偶受到时尚达人的追捧；20美元的Labubu挂在2万美元的铂金包上，这种搭配并不罕见。 The hype is real: A life-size version of one of the dolls recently sold for more than $170,000 at auction, and Pop Marts in Britain briefly halted sales of the dolls in May after reports of chaotic crowd surges and fights among customers hoping to snag new releases. 热度十分惊人：一个真人大小的玩偶最近在拍卖会上拍出了108万元，英国的泡泡玛特在5月一度暂停销售，因为有报道称当时人潮涌动，为了抢到新版本的玩偶，顾客之间还发生了斗殴。 Yet “Lafufus,” as the fake figures are affectionately called, are also trending. Sold both in person (been to Canal Street recently?) and online at cheaper prices than their brethren’s, they’re much easier to find, even if they look a little … off. 然而，被亲切地称为“Lafufu”的赝品也在流行。既有实体销售（最近去过运河街吗？），也有网上销售，价格都比真品便宜，也更容易找到，尽管它们看起来有点……不对劲。 Victoria Bystritsky, a 25-year-old analyst who lives in California, bought her first box of three real Labubus off the e-commerce platform Mercari for $150 back in April. “I saw a bunch of articles and people posting about them, so I was like, ‘OK, I must have one,’” she said in an interview. But it was when her fiancé unwittingly purchased her a Lafufu at a gas station that her obsession with the dupes started. 今年4月，住在加州、现年25岁的分析师维多利亚·比斯特里茨基在电子商务平台Mercari上以150美元的价格购买了她的第一盒三只装正品Labubu。“我看到了一堆关于它们的文章和帖子，所以我想，‘好吧，我一定要买一个，’”她在接受采访时说。但是，当她的未婚夫无意中在加油站给她买了一个Lafufu时，她开始迷上了这种赝品。 “I was actually really excited to see what it would look like, because I’d seen TikToks of people unboxing the scariest looking Lafufus,” Ms. Bystritsky said. “And when I unboxed that Lafufu it was just so funny looking that I was like, ‘Oh my gosh.’” “我真的很想看看它会是什么样子，因为我在TikTok上见过有人开箱展示看起来最吓人的Lafufu，”比斯特里茨基说。“当我打开那个Lafufu的盒子时，它看起来太有趣了，我当时就觉得，‘哦，我的天哪。’” Ms. Bystritsky said that for her, the appeal of the Lafufus was to see just how terribly they mirrored the real thing. Her gas station Lafufu, for example, has crooked ears and bright pink eyes that are not available in any of the real dolls, which she said made it look “freaky.” 比斯特里茨基说，对她来说，Lafufu的吸引力就在于它们模仿正品有多糟糕。例如，她在加油站买的Lafufu长着弯曲的耳朵和明亮的粉红色眼睛，这些都是正品所没有的，她说这让它看起来“怪怪的”。 “Honestly, the more botched they look, the better,” she added. “老实说，它们的样子越难看越好，”她还说。 Representatives for Pop Mart did not respond to a request for comment on the fakes. 泡泡玛特的代表没有回应就仿冒品发表评论的请求。 Perhaps the Lafufu appeal is rooted in the rise of dupes and superfakes, a growing trend among millennials and Gen Z-ers that seeks to normalize and destigmatize buying and owning counterfeit luxury products. There’s no shame in this game. On the Labubu community on Reddit, users flock to share their secrets on the best places to score Lafufus. (Shein and Alibaba are two favorites.) And on TikTok, people proudly post Lafufu unboxing videos. “Labubus? Nah I’m fully invested in my bald Lafufus,” Ms. Bystritsky recently posted in a TikTok video showing off her dupes that’s been viewed nearly three million times. 也许Lafufu的魅力源于“山寨”货和超A货的兴起，这在千禧一代和Z世代中是一种日益增长的趋势，旨在将购买和拥有假冒奢侈品正常化以及去污名化。在这场游戏里，没有什么是可耻的。在Reddit上的Labubu社区，用户们争先恐后地分享他们的秘诀，告诉大家在哪里可以买到Lafufu。（希音和阿里巴巴是两大热门平台。）在TikTok上，人们自豪地发布Lafufu的开箱视频。“Labubu？不，我对我的光头Lafufu情有独钟，”比斯特里茨基最近在TikTok上发布了一段视频，展示她的赝品，该视频被观看了近300万次。 Spotting a Lafufu requires a discerning eye: The real version should have exactly nine teeth and a peach pink face and should come in a matte box with an official QR code and a seal on its right foot that is visible only via UV lamp. Some of those qualities make Lafufus obvious, but when it comes to the truly good fakes, the differences can be as minimal as the stitching on the doll’s accessories. 鉴别Lafufu需要一双挑剔的眼睛：正品Labubu应该有九颗牙齿和桃红色的脸，应该装在哑光盒子里，上面有官方二维码，右脚上有一个只有通过紫外线灯才能看到的水印。这些特征可以鉴别出一些明显的Lafufu，但做工精良的赝品和正品之间的差别可能只能体现在玩偶的配饰上的缝线这种极其细微的地方。 Still, to some fans of Lafufus, they’re just as covetable as the real thing. “I’ve had people offering to buy it off of me,” Ms. Bystritsky said of her pink-eyed gas station Lafufu. “Someone offered me $200, but it’s priceless to me.” 尽管如此，对于Lafufu的一些拥趸来说，它们和正品一样令人垂涎。“有人想从我这里买下它，”比斯特里茨基在谈到她在加油站买的那个粉色眼睛的Lafufu时说。“有人出200美元，但它对我来说是无价之宝。” 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID PIERSON2025年6月30日内蒙古白云鄂博的稀土矿。中国控制着稀土元素的全球供应，而稀土元素是许多现代技术的重要原料。 Bert van Dijk/Getty Images China said on Friday that it had confirmed details of a trade framework with the Trump administration that includes an agreement for Beijing to speed up exports of critical minerals to the United States and for Washington to lift recent export controls on China. 周五，中国表示，已经与特朗普政府确认了一个贸易框架的细节，其中包括北京加快向美国出口关键矿产以及华盛顿取消近期对中国的出口管制的协议。 “China will review and approve applications for the export of controlled items,” China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement, and “the United States will correspondingly cancel a series of restrictive measures it has taken against China.” 中国商务部在声明中表示：“中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请。美方将相应取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。” The statement echoed remarks that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had made hours earlier, telling Bloomberg News that the United States would “take down” their export controls once China began delivering rare earth minerals. 这一声明呼应了商务部长商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克几小时前的话，他告诉彭博新闻社，一旦中国开始提供稀土矿，美国将“取消”出口管制。 It is unclear if the agreement is what President Trump was referring to when he said at a White House event on Thursday that his administration had “signed” a trade deal with China. 目前尚不清楚该协议是否就是特朗普总统周四在白宫的一个活动上所说的，与中国“签署”的贸易协议。 The Ministry of Commerce said Chinese and American trade negotiators had “maintained close communication” after meeting in London on June 9 and 10. The two sides had previously met in Geneva in May. 中国商务部表示，6月9日和10日在伦敦举行会谈后，中美贸易谈判代表“保持着密切沟通”。此前，双方于5月在日内瓦举行过会晤。 The meetings were held to stabilize ties between the two superpowers and to call a truce in an escalating trade war in which both sides slapped sky-high tariffs on each other’s goods. 这些会晤是为了稳定两个超级大国之间的关系，并在不断升级的贸易战中实现休战，双方此前都向对方的商品征收天价关税。 Tensions flared after the meeting in Geneva as Chinese rare earths exports to the United States slowed to a trickle. China dominates the supply and processing of rare earths, a vital component of many modern technologies, including semiconductors, robots and aircraft. 日内瓦谈判结束后，由于中国对美国的稀土出口放缓到极低的水平，紧张局势加剧。稀土是半导体、机器人和飞机等许多现代技术的关键材料，中国在稀土供应和加工领域占据主导地位。 The Trump administration responded to the slowdown by imposing restrictions of U.S. exports of ethane, jet engines and chip software to China. These were the countermeasures that Beijing most likely expects to be canceled in return for loosening exports of rare earths. 特朗普政府对这一放缓的回应是限制美国向中国出口乙烷、飞机发动机和芯片软件。中国政府很可能希望以放宽稀土出口限制作为交换，让美国取消这些反制措施。 The announcements come days after China said it strengthened controls on two chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl. That move was seen as an olive branch from Beijing, which Washington has long complained does not do enough to stop the synthetic opioid crisis in the United States. 此前几天，中国宣布加强对两种可用于制造芬太尼的化学品的管制。此举被视为北京递出的橄榄枝，华盛顿长期以来一直抱怨北京在遏制美国合成阿片类药物危机方面做得不够。 It remains to be seen if the lifting of export controls from both sides will smooth the way to wider trade talks on fundamental issues frustrating the Trump administration, such as getting China to purchase significantly more American goods and granting more U.S. companies access to China’s economy. 双方解除出口管制是否会为更广泛的贸易谈判扫清障碍，从而解决令特朗普政府感到沮丧的根本问题，比如让中国大幅增加美国商品的采购，并向更多美国企业开放中国市场等，目前还有待观察。 While China has said it will not back down from a trade war with the United States, analysts have said it is in Beijing’s interests to come to a broader agreement. The Chinese economy remains sluggish because of a property crisis and a dip in consumer confidence. 虽然中国表示不会在与美国的贸易战中退缩，但分析人士指出，达成更广泛的协议符合北京的利益。由于房地产危机和消费者信心下降，中国经济仍然低迷。 Berry Wang对本文有研究贡献。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
王月眉2025年6月30日北京一家耽美漫画周边店。耽美小说描写男性之间的浪漫关系，自1990年代以来在中国拥有热情的小众粉丝群体。 Siyi Zhao/The New York Times The graduate student in southern China wrote the romance novel in her spare time, self-publishing it online. In 75 chapters, it followed two male protagonists through a love affair that included, at times, steamy sexual encounters. It earned her less than $400, from readers who paid to access it. 一名中国南方的研究生用业余时间创作了一部言情小说，并在网上发布。小说共有75章，讲述了两位男主角之间的一段恋情，其中包括一些情欲描写。读者需付费阅读，这部小说最终为她带来了不到3000元的收入。 Now, it could bring her a criminal conviction. 如今，这部小说可能会让她面临刑事定罪。 Across China, the authorities have been interrogating dozens of writers — many of them young women — who published gay erotic novels online, in what appears to be the largest police roundup of its kind to date. 在中国各地，政府正在审讯数十名曾在网上发布男同性恋题材情色小说的作者，其中许多是年轻女性。这似乎是迄今为止最大规模的此类警方抓捕行动。 At least 12 such authors were tried on obscenity charges in Anhui Province late last year, according to court records, and more investigations, including that of the student, were opened in Gansu Province this spring. Some of the writers have been fined heavily or sentenced to years in prison for producing and distributing obscene content. 根据法院记录，去年底，至少有12名此类作者在安徽省因淫秽内容指控被审判。今年春天，包括那名学生在内的更多案件在甘肃省被立案调查。一些作者因创作和传播淫秽内容被处以巨额罚款，或被判处数年监禁。 At the center of the crackdown is Boys’ Love, a genre of romance between men that is mostly written and read online, and mostly by heterosexual women. Originally from Japan, it has developed a fervent niche following in China and other Asian countries since the 1990s, offering fans an alternative to the stereotypes of passive, obedient women and macho men in many mainstream love stories. 此次打击行动针对的是耽美文学——描写男性间恋爱的浪漫题材，主要由异性恋女性创作并在网络传播。耽美源自日本，自1990年代以来在中国及其他亚洲国家发展出狂热的小众追随者，它为粉丝提供了不同于主流爱情故事中“被动顺从的女性”与“阳刚男性”这些刻板印象的叙事选择。 At its peak in the 2010s, Boys’ Love gave rise to some of China’s most popular television and web dramas, and it launched the careers of some of the country’s biggest male stars. But that has changed in recent years. 在2010年代的高峰时期，耽美题材催生了中国一些最受欢迎的电视剧和网剧，也成就了几位国内顶级男明星的演艺生涯。但近年来，这一情况已经发生了变化。 As the genre grew more popular, state media began to denounce it as “vulgar,” claiming that the gay story lines could distort young readers’ sexual orientations. Shows were canceled, and television regulators banned Boys’ Love adaptations and gay-themed content more broadly. In a 2018 case that angered many Chinese internet users, a popular author was sentenced to 10 years in prison on obscenity charges. 随着这一题材越来越受欢迎，官方媒体开始对其进行抨击，称其“低俗”，并声称其中的同性恋情节可能会“扭曲”青少年的性取向。一些节目被叫停，电视监管机构也全面禁止了耽美改编作品和同性题材内容。2018年，一位知名作者因被控传播淫秽内容而被判处10年徒刑，判决引发了众多中国网民的愤怒。 印有耽美角色的笔记本及其他周边商品。该题材曾在2010年代激发了中国热门电视剧的创作灵感，相关作品在中国仍有销售，但限制已趋严格。 Some Boys’ Love writers responded to the pressure by leaving out sex scenes or downplaying the stories’ gay overtones, casting the pairings as “bromances.” Such works are still available in China. But other authors, who wanted to write more explicit stories, sought refuge in overseas publishing platforms like Haitang Literature City, a Taiwanese website that readers in China can access only with software that circumvents the state’s internet firewall. 一些耽美作者在压力下选择删去性描写，或淡化故事中的同性恋色彩，将角色之间的关系描绘为“兄弟情”。这类作品目前在中国仍然可以看到。但也有一些希望创作更露骨内容的作者转而投向海外出版平台，例如台湾的网站“海棠文学城”。中国读者只有借助翻墙软件绕过国家的网络防火墙，才能访问该平台。 Now, even that platform is no longer safe. The authors who were detained by the police in Jixi County in Anhui and the city of Lanzhou in Gansu had been publishing on Haitang. 如今，即便海棠也不再安全。那些在安徽省绩溪县和甘肃省兰州市被警方拘留的作者都是在海棠文学城上发表作品的。 The crackdown has led to heated debate about creative freedom and the government’s efforts to police morality. Online commentators noted that some people convicted of rape or child abduction had received lighter sentences than Boys’ Love authors. 这场打击行动引发了关于创作自由和政府道德审查的激烈争论。有网友指出，一些强奸犯或拐卖儿童者所受到的判罚竟然比耽美作者还要轻。 Lao Dongyan, a law professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, wrote on social media that law enforcement seemed more preoccupied with “safeguarding social mores and sexual morality” than with protecting individuals’ rights. That post has since been removed. 位于北京的清华大学的法学教授劳东燕在社交媒体上写道，执法机关似乎更关心的是“对社会风化与性道德的保护”，而不是保护个体权益。这条帖文后来已被删除。 To many people, the arrests also show how much the space for female and L.G.B.T.Q. expression has shrunk in China. 在许多人看来，这些逮捕事件也反映了中国女性和LGBTQ群体的表达空间日益缩小。 The scale of the crackdown is not entirely clear, partly because many authors have been afraid to talk about it. Also, discussion of the topic online has been heavily censored. But some observers say it appears to be the first time that Boys’ Love writers have been charged with crimes en masse, rather than merely censored or targeted individually. 此次打击行动的规模尚不十分清楚，部分原因是许多作者害怕谈论此事。此外，网络上有关该话题的讨论也受到严格审查。但一些观察人士表示，这似乎是耽美作者首次以犯罪名义被大规模起诉，而不仅仅是遭到审查或被单独针对。 In Gansu, the police may have arrested as many as 50 writers in recent weeks, according to one Chinese news outlet. Two lawyers who spoke to The New York Times said each of them represented an author who had recently been detained. One of the lawyers, Wu Jie, whose client is the graduate student, said he had direct knowledge of at least six other cases. 据一家中国新闻媒体报道，甘肃警方近期可能已逮捕多达50名作家。两位接受《纽约时报》采访的律师表示，他们各自代理了一名最近被拘留的作者。其中一位律师吴杰（音）的委托人就是那名研究生，他表示自己直接知道的至少还有另外六起类似案件。 Scholars, lawyers and others have speculated that the police might be targeting the writers for financial reasons. Local governments in China are burdened with debt, and some have turned to extorting businesses in other provinces, on exaggerated or made-up charges, to fill their coffers. The police in both Gansu and Anhuihave detained Boys’ Love authors from other provinces. 学者、律师及其他人士推测，警方可能是出于经济原因而针对这些作家。中国地方政府负债累累，一些地方通过对外省企业以夸大或捏造的指控进行勒索，以填补财政缺口。甘肃和安徽的警方均曾拘留来自外省的耽美作家。 Reached by phone, a member of the Lanzhou police staff said that “some details aren’t convenient to disclose.” A staff member for the Jixi County police said she was not aware of the cases. 电话联系兰州警方，对方一名工作人员表示“有些细节不便透露”。安徽绩溪县警方的一名工作人员则称她并不了解这些案件。 宣传两部耽美漫画《人鱼陷落》和《再见，我的国王》的海报。 Chinese obscenity laws are vague, prohibiting works that “explicitly portray sexual behavior,” with exceptions for those with scientific or artistic value. Producing or distributing obscene material for profit can be punished with life imprisonment if the conditions are “especially serious,” a quality that officials have said can be measured in earnings or clicks. 中国的淫秽法条较为模糊，禁止“露骨描写性行为”的作品，但对具有科学或艺术价值的作品除外。如果以营利为目的制作或传播淫秽物品，且情节“特别严重”，可判处终身监禁。官方表示，是否“特别严重”可以通过收益或点击量来衡量。 The authorities have also targeted creators of heterosexual pornography and erotic fiction. But they have singled out gay content as especially forbidden. For example, a government-backed group of internet companies and research institutes has included “homosexuality and other sexual perversions” in its definition of obscenity. 当局也打击异性恋色情内容和情色小说的创作者，但将同性恋内容列为重点禁区。例如，一个由政府支持的互联网公司和研究机构组成的团体将“同性恋及其他性变态”纳入淫秽内容的定义之中。 Cassie Hu, a China-based academic who studies Boys’ Love, said targeting it was a way “to control and highly supervise straight women” and reinforce the traditional, heterosexual family structure amid concern about China’s plummeting birthrate. 在中国从事耽美研究的学者凯茜·胡（音）表示，打压耽美是一种“对异性恋女性进行控制和高度监管”的手段，同时也为了在中国出生率急剧下降的背景下，强化传统的异性恋家庭结构。 The authors who were detained last year, by the police in Jixi County, seemed to be among the most popular writers on the Haitang platform. 去年被绩溪县警方拘留的那些作者，似乎是海棠文学城平台上最受欢迎的一批作者。 One author, who used the pen name Yun Jian, had written 38 novels since 2018 on Haitang, making the equivalent of more than $250,000, according to a court ruling posted online by someone who said he was the writer’s husband. She was sentenced to four and a half years in prison and fined twice what she had earned on the platform, according to the ruling. 一位笔名为云间的作者自2018年以来在海棠文学城上创作了38部小说，据一位自称是她丈夫的人在网上发布的法院判决书显示，她在该平台共赚取了超过185万元。根据判决，她被判处四年半有期徒刑，并被处以通过平台所得两倍的罚款。 Ye Bin, a lawyer for four other authors who were arrested, said they were women in their 20s who had earned $27,000 to $56,000 from their writing. All were given suspended prison sentences and fined twice as much as they had earned, Mr. Ye said. 叶斌（音）是另外四名被捕作者的律师，他表示，这四人都是20多岁的女性，通过写作赚取了19万元到39万元不等。叶律师称，她们都被判了缓刑，并被处以收入两倍的罚款。 Mr. Ye declined to discuss details of the stories written by the authors he represents. He acknowledged an argument that many critics of the Boys’ Love writers have made: that artistic freedom should be weighed alongside other considerations, like protecting minors. But he said China’s obscenity standards, which were last updated in 2010, should reflect changing societal attitudes. 叶斌拒绝谈论他所代理的作者们作品的具体内容。他承认，许多批评耽美作者的人提出了一个值得讨论的观点：艺术自由应与其他因素一同权衡，比如保护未成年人。但他表示，中国的淫秽内容标准自2010年后就没有更新，它理应反映社会观念的变化。 “When moral standards have been revolutionized, I think it’s inappropriate to still be using the sentencing standards from 20 years ago,” he said. “当道德标准已经发生了巨大变化时，我认为仍在使用20年前的量刑标准是不合适的，”他说道。 日本耽美漫画《远方的家》的宣传海报。耽美题材起源于日本。 More writers were arrested this spring, by the police in Lanzhou. This time, the authors were less well known, according to interviews with two lawyers involved in the cases, as well as social media posts. They included university students and a writer who had earned less than $30, according to a post by one lawyer, Zhao Yijie. 今年春天，更多作者被兰州警方逮捕。据两位参与相关案件的律师以及社交媒体上的帖子透露，这次被捕的作者知名度较低，其中包括一些大学生，根据律师赵一杰的帖文所述，还有一位作者仅赚了不到200元。 Mr. Wu, the lawyer defending the graduate student who earned about $400, said his client was caught off guard by her detention. 为那位赚了大约3000元的研究生辩护的吴律师表示，他的当事人对自己被拘留一事完全措手不及。 “The police asked her during the interrogation, ‘Did you know that writing this could be a crime?’ She answered that she didn’t know until the police contacted her,” Mr. Wu said. (His client declined an interview request through Mr. Wu.) “警方在审讯时问她：‘你知道写这种东西可能构成犯罪吗？’她回答说，直到警方联系她，她才知道，”吴律师说。（他的当事人通过他婉拒了采访请求。） Even though the crackdown seems to have primarily targeted writers of explicit gay romances, the arrests are a warning sign about freedom of expression in general, said Liang Ge, a lecturer at University College London who studies Boys’ Love. 尽管此次打压行动主要针对的是描写露骨同性恋情节的作家，但也是对整体言论自由发出的一个警示信号，伦敦大学学院研究耽美的讲师梁歌（音）表示。 “It’s not just about writing obscenity, pornography, erotic or queer romances,” Dr. Ge said. “Social media users feel that there is increasingly little space for them to breathe freely.” “这不仅仅是关于写作淫秽、色情、情色或酷儿恋爱作品的问题，”梁歌表示，“社交媒体用户普遍感到，他们可以自由呼吸的空间正变得越来越小。” Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。 王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者，常驻北京，撰写关于中国的崛起及雄心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
JIN YU YOUNG2025年6月27日周五，在布鲁克林举办的一场《鱿鱼游戏》第三季宣传活动。 Jason Mendez/Getty Images for Netflix A Tony Award-winning play on Broadway. The finale of a record-breaking Netflix show. And a reunion of arguably the world’s biggest pop band. 托尼奖获奖作品在百老汇上演。破收视纪录的Netflix剧集迎来大结局。还有堪称世界上最火的流行组合重新聚首。 South Korean culture is having a moment. Again. 韩国文化正在风靡。再一次。 “Maybe Happy Ending” clinching the best musical Tony this month added a new art form to South Korea’s growing list of international cultural successes. It followed “Parasite,” which in 2020 was the first foreign-language film to win an Oscar for best picture, and Han Kang, who won last year’s Nobel Prize in Literature. 《也许美好结局》(Maybe Happy Ending)本月获得托尼奖最佳音乐剧，为韩国越来越长的国际文化成就清单增添了一种新的艺术形式。在此之前，《寄生虫》在2020年成为第一部获得奥斯卡最佳影片的外语片，韩江在去年获得了诺贝尔文学奖。 On the K-pop front, the last member of BTS has completed his mandatory national service, stirring the hopes of fans worldwide about a reunion. And Blackpink will start a global tour next month with a gig near Seoul. 在韩国流行音乐(K-pop)方面，防弹少年团(BTS)的最后一名成员服完兵役，令全世界粉丝开始翘首盼望他们的重聚。Blackpink将于下个月在首尔附近开始全球巡演。 Next week, the third season of “Squid Game” will arrive on Netflix, the final installment of a show whose first season set viewership records. 本周，《鱿鱼游戏》第三季将在Netflix播出，这是该剧的最后一季，第一季创下了收视率记录。 在本月举行的第78届托尼奖颁奖典礼上，《也许美好结局》获得了最佳音乐剧奖。 But the so-called Korean Wave shows no signs of subsiding. Global interest in seeking out all things Korean, from cosmetics to food, is surging. 所谓的“韩流”并没有消退的迹象。从化妆品到食品，全球对韩国一切事物的兴趣正在飙升。 How did K-culture become so popular? 韩国文化是如何变得如此受欢迎的？ Experts say the nation’s cultural wave, known as “Hallyu” in Korean, began in the late 1990s, when South Korean soaps started gaining popularity in China and Japan. The rise of the internet spread these exports further. 专家表示，韩国的这股文化浪潮（韩语称为“Hallyu”）始于上世纪90年代末，当时韩国肥皂剧开始在中国和日本流行。互联网的兴起进一步扩大了这些出口。 In 2012, Psy’s horseback dance moves and rap melody made “Gangnam Style” the first video on YouTube to surpass one billion views. The breakout hit brought global attention to K-pop. But it was BTS — a group of seven handsome young men who rap, dance and sing (all at the same time) — that took K-pop into the global mainstream. During the pandemic, BTS broke several Guinness World Records for streams and views of their tracks “Dynamite” and “Butter.” 2012年，Psy（“鸟叔”）的骑马舞和说唱旋律使《江南Style》成为YouTube上第一个播放量超过10亿的视频。这首横空出世的神曲让韩国流行音乐受到了全球的关注。但将韩国流行音乐带入全球主流的是防弹少年团——由七名会说唱、跳舞、歌唱的年轻英俊男子组成。在新冠疫情期间，防弹少年团的歌曲《Dynamite》和《Butter》的播放量和观看量打破了多项吉尼斯世界纪录。 2022年，鸟叔在首尔接受了《纽约时报》关于《江南Style》十周年的采访。 Well before K-dramas lit up screens in homes across the world, South Korean restrictions on Hollywood film screenings in the country strengthened domestic filmmaking. The Busan Film Festival, which started in 1996, grew to become one of the most prominent in Asia. In 2004, the director Park Chan-wook won a Cannes Grand Prix for “Oldboy,” a violent revenge thriller. 早在韩剧风靡全球之前，韩国对好莱坞电影在国内放映的限制就促进了国内电影制作。始于1996年的釜山电影节成为了亚洲最具代表性的电影节之一。2004年，导演朴赞郁凭借暴力复仇惊悚片《老男孩》获得戛纳国际电影节大奖。 Another surge in global interest came with “Squid Game,” which debuted in 2021 and kicked off so much discussion worldwide that it created a “cultural zeitgeist,” said Minyoung Kim, Netflix’s vice president of content in Asia. It remains the platform’s biggest show. 《鱿鱼游戏》于2021年首播，引发了全球范围内的广泛讨论，Netflix负责亚洲内容的副总裁金明永（音）说，该剧创造了一种“文化上的时代精神”。目前它仍然是该平台最受欢迎的剧集。 Is Korea becoming a cultural superpower? 韩国正在成为文化超级大国吗？ Many experts believe that K-culture is ensconced in the global mainstream. But some say there is still far to go before the country’s cultural might reaches the international influence of countries like the United States, France, Italy and Japan that are globally known for things like food, fashion and cinema. 许多专家认为韩国文化已融入全球主流。但有人说，韩国的文化实力要达到美国、法国、意大利和日本等全球美食、时尚和电影大国的国际影响力，还有很长的路要走。 There are geopolitical hurdles, too. After a dispute over the deployment of a missile system in South Korea, China placed an unofficial ban on K-pop performances in 2016. And in North Korea, music and shows from the South, and even slang they have popularized, are banned because its leader, Kim Jong-un, sees them as a threat to his regime. 还有地缘政治方面的障碍。在韩国部署导弹系统引发争端后，中国于2016年对韩国流行音乐演出下达了非官方禁令。在朝鲜，来自韩国的音乐和节目，甚至是在它们推广下流行的俚语都被禁止，因为朝鲜领导人金正恩认为它们对自己的政权构成了威胁。 2021年，伦敦梅费尔区的Danceworks Studio的韩国流行乐课程。 The Korean exports have only a sliver of the global market for their respective categories, and experts say it is still too early to tell if K-culture has already peaked or will have lasting power. 韩国的出口产品在全球市场上只占很小的份额，专家们表示，现在判断韩国文化是否已经达到顶峰或是否会具有持久的影响力还为时过早。 While K-pop is extremely popular, it has yet to influence other music genres, said Prof. Andrew Eungi Kim, who studies culture at the International Studies Department at Korea University. 高丽大学国际学系的文化研究教授金恩基表示：“虽然韩国流行音乐非常受欢迎，但它还没有对其他音乐类型产生影响。” But the popularity of K-pop and K-drama can spark interest in other aspects of South Korean culture, said Cha Woo-jin, a music critic in Seoul. People want to taste the food the stars eat, wear the makeup they use and even learn the language they speak. 但首尔的音乐评论家车宇晋（音）说，韩国流行音乐和韩剧的流行可以激发人们对韩国文化其他方面的兴趣。人们想品尝明星们吃的食物，化他们的妆，甚至学习他们所说的语言。 “People used to think of Hallyu as entertainment,” Mr. Cha said. “But now, it’s a lifestyle.” “人们曾经认为韩流是一种娱乐，”车宇晋说。“但现在，这是一种生活方式。” Is K-beauty the next frontier? 韩式美妆会是下一个前沿吗？ South Korean celebrities are envied for their flawless skin. Overseas consumers, especially younger ones, are eager to copy their skin care routines, which can be rigorous. 韩国名人因完美无瑕的皮肤令人羡慕。海外消费者（尤其是年轻消费者）渴望模仿他们的护肤程序，这些程序可能会非常严格。 Korean cosmetic exports soared nearly 21 percent to a record $10.2 billion in 2024, according to government data. They topped French cosmetic exports to the United States last year. South Korea is now ranked as the third-largest exporter of makeup after those two countries. 根据政府数据，韩国化妆品出口在2024年飙升了近21%，达到创纪录的102亿美元。这一数字超过了去年法国对美国的化妆品出口额。韩国现在是仅次于法国和美国的第三大化妆品出口国。 彩妆品牌TirTir在TikTok上走红。 Lyla Kim, who works for TirTir, a Seoul-based makeup brand, said its sales nearly doubled to about $300 million last year after its cushion foundation went viral on TikTok. 首尔彩妆品牌TirTir的工作人员莱拉·金（lyla Kim）表示，该品牌的气垫粉底液在TikTok上疯传后，该品牌去年的销售额几乎翻了一番，达到约3亿美元。 What about K-food? 韩国美食怎么样？ Viral videos of kimbap — seaweed-wrapped rice rolls stuffed with meat, fish or vegetables — have caused American grocery store shelves to be cleared out. Samyang Foods, the maker of the superspicy Buldak instant noodles, has said its exports have quadrupled in recent years. Overall exports of Korean agricultural food products reached a record $2.48 billion in the first quarter, up nearly 10 percent from last year, according to government data. 紫菜包饭（一种用紫菜包着的米饭卷，里面塞满肉、鱼或蔬菜）的视频在网上疯传，导致美国杂货店的货架被抢购一空。生产超辣火鸡方便面的三养食品表示，近年来其出口增长了三倍。根据政府数据，今年第一季度，韩国农产品出口总额达到了创纪录的24.8亿美元，比去年同期增长了近10%。 Korean food also got a plug from the Netflix show “Culinary Class Wars,” which was released in September. It pitted 80 underdog, or “black spoon,” chefs against 20 renowned chefs. 今年9月上映的Netflix真人秀《黑白厨师：料理阶级战争》(Culinary Class Wars)也为韩餐做了宣传。该节目让80名不知名的“黑勺”厨师与20名知名厨师进行对决。 And it may be only a matter of time before the world comes to view a Korean dish like bibimbap, a medley of rice, vegetables, meat and fermented chili paste, as being as universal as pizza, pasta or sushi, said Choi Jung-Yoon, who has been a chef in South Korea, Spain and Australia and heads Nanro, a food research nonprofit. 曾在韩国、西班牙和澳大利亚当过厨师并领导非盈利食品研究机构Nanro的崔正允（音）说，韩式拌饭这样由米饭、蔬菜、肉和发酵辣椒酱混合而成的韩国菜迟早会像披萨、意大利面或寿司一样被全世界接受。 皇后区北方大道Food Bazaar的韩国食品区。 “K-pop and K-dramas may have led to the interest of South Korean food, but it’s K-food that will carry Korea’s cultural legacy into the future,” Ms. Choi said. “韩国流行音乐和韩剧可能引起了人们对韩国食品的兴趣，但韩国食品才是把韩国文化遗产带到未来的关键，”崔正允说。 How has the K-wave changed South Korea? “韩流”是如何改变韩国的？ As interest in South Korea grows, the number of tourists, foreign residents and exchange students in the country has steadily increased over the past four years, according to government figures. Some arrivals say they were inspired by the life that its dramas and popular culture icons depicted on social media. 据政府数据显示，随着人们对韩国的兴趣日益浓厚，过去四年来，韩国的游客、外国居民和交换学生数量稳步增长。一些游客表示，社交媒体上的韩国电视剧和流行文化偶像所描绘的生活令他们心生向往。 Onjira Mahitthafongkul, who grew up in Bangkok, first visited South Korea after finishing high school, when Big Bang was her favorite pop group. She has lived in Seoul, the nation’s capital, for five years, getting her master’s degree at Yonsei University and working in marketing. The nation’s “rich food scene” and “convenient lifestyle” drew her to stay in the country, she said. Its lively drinking culture helped her make friends. 在曼谷长大的翁吉拉·玛希塔蓬坤高中毕业后第一次去韩国，当时Big Bang是她最喜欢的流行组合。她在韩国首都首尔生活了五年，在延世大学获得硕士学位，从事市场营销工作。她说，这个国家“丰富的美食”和“方便的生活方式”吸引着她留下。这里热闹的饮酒文化帮助她结交了朋友。 2023年，地标性建筑南山首尔塔亮起紫色灯光，庆祝防弹少年团成立十周年。 Still, she said, “there is always some level of discrimination as a foreigner, and I’ve come to accept that.” 不过，她说，“作为外国人，总会受到某种程度的歧视，我已经接受了这一点。” Government surveys show that many immigrants have experienced some form of discrimination. 政府调查显示，许多移民都经历过某种形式的歧视。 “South Korean society has been pretty strict in that you need to look or act a certain way to be accepted,” said Mr. Cha, the music critic. But as it draws more visitors, he said it is only a matter of time before the nation becomes more accepting. 乐评人车宇晋说，“你需要有特定的外表或行为才能被接受。”但他说，随着游客越来越多，这个国家变得更加包容只是时间问题。 Jin Yu Young自首尔报道韩国、亚太地区和全球突发新闻。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
SIMAR BAJAJ2025年6月27日 Justin J Wee for The New York Times A dangerous heat wave is blanketing much of the central and eastern United States this week, sending temperatures into the triple digits and affecting nearly a hundred million Americans. 本周，危险的高温天气席卷美国中部和东部的大部分地区，气温飙升至三位数（摄氏38度以上——译注），影响近1亿美国人。 While many people have heard about the risk of heat stroke, experts say that extreme heat can affect almost every part of your body. Here’s what to know, and how to stay safe. 虽然许多人听说过中暑的风险，但专家表示，极端高温几乎会影响到身体的每个部位。以下是需要了解的事项，以及要如何保持安全。 1. Watch Out for Brain Fog 1. 警惕脑雾 Heat can slow down the brain, reducing reaction time, attention and memory, said Dr. Neha Raukar, an emergency medicine physician at the Mayo Clinic. That can mean performing worse on tests as well as having trouble concentrating and being productive at work. The heat can even make people more irritable and aggressive; researchers have observed that more road rage incidents and violent crimes occur when temperatures rise. 梅奥诊所的急诊医生内哈·劳卡尔博士表示，高温会减缓大脑活动，降低反应速度，导致注意力涣散和记忆力减退。这意味着考试表现会下降，还会影响专注力和工作效率。高温甚至会使人变得更易怒和具有攻击性；研究人员观察到，气温升高时，路怒事件和暴力犯罪发生率更高。 While the reasons are not entirely clear, experts believe that your brain might be more focused on staying cool than thinking clearly. 虽然个中原因尚不完全明确，但专家认为，你的大脑此时可能更专注于降温，而非清晰思考。 2. Make a Plan to Stay Cool 2. 制定降温计划 Beating the heat can be an all-day challenge. If you don’t have air-conditioning, it’s smart to take steps like closing the shades, immersing your feet in cold water and wrapping a damp towel with crushed ice around your neck, said Kristie Ebi, a climate epidemiologist at the University of Washington. Fans can also be helpful, but make sure you leave your windows open so that you don’t turn your house into a convection oven, she added. 对抗高温可能是一整天的挑战。华盛顿大学气候流行病学家克里斯蒂·埃比说，如果你没有空调，就有必要采取防中暑的措施，比如拉上窗帘，用冷水泡脚，以及用湿毛巾包裹碎冰敷在脖子上。她还说，风扇也很有用，但要确保窗户开着，以免把房子变成了对流烤箱。 If you need to go outside, consider carrying an umbrella, a water bottle with ice and a spray bottle, which you can use to spritz your skin with water. 如果需要外出的话，可以考虑带把伞、给水壶里装上冰，还可以一个喷雾瓶，用来喷水降温。 Taking regular breaks indoors can also help prevent heat-related illnesses, so Dr. Raukar recommends finding cool-down spots nearby such as malls, museums, libraries, and coffee shops. 劳卡尔建议时不时进入室内休息，可选择附近的商场、博物馆、图书馆或咖啡馆等避暑场所，以预防高温相关疾病。 3. Keep Children and Seniors Safe 3. 保护好儿童和老人 Older adults are especially vulnerable to extreme heat because aging and conditions like cardiovascular disease and diabetes affect people’s ability to regulate temperature. 老年人特别容易受到极端高温的影响，因为衰老以及心血管疾病、糖尿病等会影响人体调节体温的能力。 The heat can make these conditions worse. According to studies in The Lancet Planetary Health, heat has been associated with an increased risk of cardiac arrests, heart attacks and strokes, as well as decreased kidney function. 高温会使这些疾病恶化。《柳叶刀·星球健康》杂志的研究显示，高温与心脏骤停、心梗和中风风险增加以及肾功能下降有关。 Children are at high risk because they tend to overheat quickly and have a harder time cooling down, Dr. Ebi said. 埃比说，儿童属于高风险群体，因为他们体温上升较快，且更难以散热降温。 4. Find Out if Your Medications Increase Your Risk 4. 警惕药物风险 Millions of people take medications that make them more vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat. Drugs for common conditions — including allergies, high blood pressure, kidney disease, hypothyroidism and various mental illnesses — can impair the body’s ability to cool down. 数百万人服用会使其更易受极端高温影响的药物。治疗常见疾病的药物——包括过敏、高血压、肾病、甲状腺功能减退症和各种精神疾病——会削弱人体的降温能力。 Some medications, like diuretics and certain antidepressants, can repress your thirst and cause more frequent urination and sweating. Other drugs, like Benadryl and stimulants, can make you sweat less and cause the brain to raise body temperature. 一些药物，如利尿剂和某些抗抑郁药，会抑制你的口渴感，并增加排尿排汗。还有一些药物，如苯海拉明和兴奋剂，会让你出汗减少，并导致大脑升高体温。 But you shouldn’t skip doses of your prescription medication without first talking to your doctor, Dr. Raukar said. Instead, she recommends taking more precautions to stay cool. 但劳卡尔强调，在咨询医生之前，不要擅自停处方药，而需加强防暑措施。 5. Eat Your Water 5. 从食物中补充水分 Water, milk and coconut water are some the best options to stay hydrated. But your body gets about 20 percent of its water from food. 补水的最佳选择是水、牛奶和椰子水，但人体约20%的水分来自食物。 Raw fruits and vegetables, including cucumbers, lettuce, celery, tomatoes, strawberries and melons, are among the most hydrating foods. And since experts suggest avoiding your stove and oven during heat waves, making salads, cold soups and other no-cook recipes can help you eat your water. 黄瓜、生菜、芹菜、番茄、草莓和瓜类等生鲜果蔬富含水分。专家建议高温期间避免开火烹饪，可制作沙拉、冷汤等无需烹饪的餐食。 Just make sure to avoid alcohol and limit coffee because they are both dehydrating, Dr. Raukar said. 劳卡尔提醒，需避免饮酒并限制咖啡摄入，因为它们都会导致脱水。 6. Adjust Your Exercise Routine 6. 调整运动计划 Exercising during a heat wave can be dangerous. Humidity can make it especially hard to regulate body temperature because sweat won’t evaporate off your skin and cool you down as easily. Dry heat, meanwhile, can quickly dehydrate you, slowing down sweat production. 高温天气下运动存在风险。湿热会使体温调节变得特别困难，因为汗水不会轻易从皮肤上蒸发带走热量。而干热容易导致脱水，减少排汗。 Experts say that you don’t need to do all your workouts indoors. But you should hydrate before you step outside; wear breathable, light-colored clothing; and find shady areas to exercise. “Listen to your body,” Dr. Raukar said, because extreme heat can cause your muscles to cramp and even break down. 专家表示，倒也不必完全在室内锻炼。不过，外出前应该补充水分；穿透气的浅色衣服；并在阴凉处锻炼。“留意身体发出的信号，”劳卡尔表示，因为高温可能导致肌肉痉挛甚至溶解。 Also, think about the time of day you're working out: While the early morning can be the best time for dry heat, it can be the worst time to exercise when it’s humid. 此外，运动时段也需考量：干热天气宜选清晨，但潮湿环境下清晨可能是最差的锻炼时间。 7. Cool Down Before You Lie Down 7. 睡前采取物理降温措施 Temperature is one of the most important factors for getting a good night’s rest, and experts recommend keeping your bedroom at 65 to 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Extreme heat can make it harder to fall asleep and even stay asleep, leaving you groggy in the morning. 温度是获得良好睡眠的最重要因素之一，专家建议将卧室温度保持在18至20摄氏度之间。高温让人难以入眠，或者睡不踏实，导致早上起床后昏昏沉沉。 While air-conditioners and fans can certainly help, you can also stay cool by taking a cold shower, spraying your sheets with cold water or putting your pillow case in the freezer before bed. 除空调、风扇外，还可以冲凉降温，或者用冷水喷洒床单，以及睡前先将枕套在冰箱放一段时间等方式助眠。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
TYLER PAGER2025年6月27日在本周举行的北约峰会新闻发布会上，特朗普总统被问及他至今未能结束俄乌战争，对此他表示了不满。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times President Trump spent less than 24 hours at the NATO summit this week, but he was eager to use the brief diplomatic visit to cast himself as a global peacemaker. 特朗普总统本周在北约峰会的停留时间不到24小时，但他渴望利用这次短暂的外交访问将自己塑造成全球和平缔造者。 Before he even arrived in the Netherlands, he had negotiated a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, NATO had acquiesced to his demand to increase military spending and he and his allies had argued he should get the Nobel Peace Prize, an accolade he has been angling to win for years. 甚至在抵达荷兰之前，他就促成了以色列和伊朗之间的停火协议，北约默然接受了他提出的增加军费开支的要求，他和他的盟友们还认为他应该获得诺贝尔和平奖，这是他多年来一直渴望获得的荣誉。 So Mr. Trump was irked when asked at his news conference on Wednesday about one of his failed foreign policy promises: Why had he not ended the war between Russia and Ukraine, which he had repeatedly promised to do within 24 hours while running for president? 因此，当特朗普在周三的新闻发布会上被问及一项未兑现的外交政策承诺时，他大为光火：他在竞选总统时曾多次承诺在24小时内结束俄乌战争，为何还没有做到。 Mr. Trump said the conflict was “more difficult” than anyone understood, blamed both President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and quickly moved on. 特朗普表示，这场冲突比任何人所理解的“更棘手”，他同时指责俄罗斯总统普京和乌克兰总统泽连斯基，然后迅速转移了话题。 Mr. Trump’s sojourn in the Netherlands, which included a night’s stay at a royal palace, offered a glimpse into how he sees himself — and wants to be seen — on the world stage. He wants recognition for his role in ending wars, although he appeared less interested in the details of making them stick. 特朗普在荷兰的短暂行程包括夜宿王宫一晚，让人们得以窥见他如何看待自己——以及希望别人如何看待他——在世界舞台上的位置。他希望自己在结束战争方面发挥的作用得到认可，尽管他似乎对巩固和平成果的细节兴趣寥寥。 “I mean, look, we just ended a war in 12 days that was simmering for 30 years frankly,” he said of the conflict between Israel and Iran. He expressed total confidence that Iran had no interest in pursuing nuclear weapons again — so much so that he said he did not care about any diplomatic agreement to formalize that. “我的意思是，你看，坦率地说，我们刚刚在12天内结束了一场酝酿了30年的战争，”他在谈到以色列和伊朗之间的冲突时说。他坚信伊朗无意重启核武计划，甚至宣称不在乎为此签订任何正式的外交协议。 “He gets bored quickly,” said Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, a geopolitical consulting organization. “He loses interest, and he has recency bias.” “他很快就会厌倦，”地缘政治咨询机构欧亚集团总裁伊恩·布雷默说。“他失去了兴趣，他有近因偏差（recency bias，指只看眼前，忽视历史的倾向——编注）。” One exception, Mr. Bremmer said, is the president’s yearslong focus on cajoling the United States’s NATO allies into playing a larger role in the alliance’s defense efforts, which Mr. Trump successfully secured this week. 布雷默指出了一个例外，那就是总统多年来一直专注于说服美国的北约盟友在北约的防务努力中发挥更大的作用，特朗普本周成功地做到了这一点。 “Frankly this has probably been Trump’s best week in terms of foreign policy of his second term,” Mr. Bremmer said. “I think pretty much any objective observer would say that.” “坦率地说，这可能是特朗普第二个任期内外交政策表现最出色的一周，”布雷默说。“我想几乎任何客观的观察者都会这么说。” Mr. Trump would most likely agree, and he wants more public acknowledgment of that. Last week, he unleashed his frustration on that front by complaining that he believes he will never win the Nobel Peace Prize. 特朗普本人想必深感认同，而且他渴望获得更多的公众赞誉。上周，他表达了自己在这方面的不满，他抱怨说，相信自己永远不会获得诺贝尔和平奖。 “No, I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do, including Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran, whatever those outcomes may be, but the people know, and that’s all that matters to me!” he wrote on Truth Social. “不，无论我做什么，包括俄罗斯/乌克兰、以色列/伊朗，无论结果如何，我都拿不到诺贝尔和平奖，但人民心里有数，这才是我最在乎的！”他在Truth Social上写道。 And this was before the United States dropped bombs on Iran and the negotiated a cease-fire. 这是在美国在伊朗投下炸弹、双方达成停火协议之前。 In addition to his diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, Mr. Trump announced last month that the United States had helped broker peace between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, countries with a 30-year history of conflict. Also last month, the president announced a cease-fire between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed powers, and he has repeatedly bragged about his efforts to attain one. 除了在中东的外交努力，特朗普上个月还宣布，美国帮助促成了卢旺达和刚果民主共和国之间的和平，这两个国家之间的冲突已经持续了30年。同样是在上个月，总统宣布自己促成了印度和巴基斯坦这两个拥核国家之间实现停火，并一再吹嘘自己为此付出的努力。 “We stopped the nuclear war,” Mr. Trump said Wednesday at the NATO summit, saying he offered to make trade deals to end the conflict. India’s foreign ministry has denied the president’s claims. “我们阻止了核战争，”特朗普周三在北约峰会上说，并表示他曾提出达成贸易协议以结束冲突。印度外交部否认了总统的说法。 Mr. Trump also often refers to his efforts in his first term to negotiate economic normalization agreements between Serbia and Kosovo. (Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has a deal with the Serbia’s government to build a half-billion-dollar hotel and apartment complex in the center of its capital, Belgrade. The project also involves the Trump Organization, run by the president’s sons Eric and Donald Jr.) 特朗普还经常提到他在自己的第一个任期内促成了塞尔维亚和科索沃之间的经济关系正常化。（特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳与塞尔维亚政府达成了一项协议，将在塞尔维亚首都贝尔格莱德市中心建造一座价值5亿美元的酒店公寓综合体。该项目还涉及他的两个儿子埃里克和小唐纳德经营的特朗普集团。） “With President Trump as commander in chief, the world is a much safer place,” the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said Thursday. 周四，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特说，“有了特朗普总统担任三军统帅，世界要安全得多。” But for all of Mr. Trump’s efforts to take a victory lap, NATO leaders did not have much of a chance to address some of the most pressing issues facing the alliance. The summit had been shortened by Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, to accommodate Mr. Trump, who has long disdained international gatherings, and the leaders largely avoided topics that might cause fractures with the American president. (Mr. Bremmer said Mr. Rutte “delegitimized” the role of NATO leader, calling his obsequiousness toward Mr. Trump “embarrassing.”) 但是，尽管特朗普竭力庆祝胜利成果，北约领导人却几乎没有机会来解决该联盟面临的一些最紧迫的议题。北约秘书长马克·吕特缩短了峰会日程，迁就长期以来对国际会议不屑一顾的特朗普，与会领导人也基本回避了可能导致与美国总统产生分歧的话题。（布雷默说，吕特此举令北约领导人的角色“失去了正当性”，称其对特朗普的谄媚姿态“令人尴尬”。） The communiqué, which was only five paragraphs, did not address the new Russia strategy, which leaders tasked themselves with developing at last year’s summit. The document only made passing mention of Ukraine and made no reference to China. 峰会公报只有五段文字，并没有提到各国领导人在去年峰会上提出的对俄新战略。文件对乌克兰一笔带过，而且没有提及中国。 “I think success on the defense spending pledge, but on the downside, a lot of other important issues weren’t even addressed, and I think the alliance will have to wrestle with those issues over the coming months,” said Matthew Kroenig, an expert at the Atlantic Council, a think tank. 智库大西洋理事会的专家马修·克鲁尼格表示：“我认为防务开支承诺虽然取得了成功，但不利的方面是，许多其他重要问题被搁置。我认为，在未来几个月里，北约将不得不应对这些议题。” But for Mr. Trump, those details did not seem to be top of mind. On Thursday, he reposted a nearly week-old message from Representative Claudia Tenney, a Republican from New York. 但对特朗普来说，这些细节似乎并非他的关注重点。周四，他转发了纽约州共和党众议员克劳迪娅·坦尼近一周前的一个帖子。 “I’ve officially nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize twice!” she wrote on X, re-sharing Mr. Trump’s Truth Social post in which he complained that he had not won the award. “He has done more for world peace than any modern leader.” “我已经两次正式提名特朗普总统获得诺贝尔和平奖！”她在X上写道，并转发了特朗普抱怨自己无法获奖的Truth Social帖子。“他为世界和平做出的贡献比任何现代领导人都多。” Tyler Pager是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
MARK LANDLER2025年6月27日去年在德黑兰街头看到的宣传画，画中有研制出该国第一枚高超音速弹道导弹的伊朗科学家。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times It has been nearly two decades since any country elbowed its way into the club of nuclear-armed nations. President Trump, with his bombing of three Iranian nuclear installations last weekend, has vowed to keep the door shut. 上次有国家挤进核武器国俱乐部已是近20年前的事情了。美国总统特朗普用上周末轰炸伊朗三处核设施的做法，立誓关上这个俱乐部的大门。 Whether Mr. Trump’s pre-emptive strike will succeed in doing that is hard to predict, so soon after the attack and the fragile cease-fire that has followed. But already it is stirring fears that Iran, and other countries, will draw a very different conclusion than the one the White House intended: that having a bomb is the only protection in a threatening world. 特朗普先发制人的打击行动能否奏效还难以预测，因为打击和随后达成的脆弱的停火协议都是刚发生不久的事情，但一个阴影已经逐渐产生，那就是伊朗以及其他国家将从这件事中得出与白宫预期截然不同的结论：在一个充满威胁的世界，拥有核弹是唯一的防卫手段。 The last country to get one, North Korea, has never faced such an attack. After years of defying demands to dismantle its nuclear program, it is now viewed as largely impregnable. Mr. Trump exchanged friendly letters with its dictator, Kim Jong-un, and met him twice in a fruitless effort to negotiate a deal. In Iran’s case, Mr. Trump deployed B-2 bombers just weeks after making a fresh diplomatic overture to its leaders. 朝鲜是上一个拥核国家，它从未面临过这种打击。朝鲜多年抵制国际社会的弃核要求，其核地位现在已经难以改变。特朗普与朝鲜独裁者金正恩有过“友好的信件”往来，还见过两次面，均无功而返。反观伊朗的核问题，特朗普在对伊朗领导人做出新的外交姿态数周后，便出动了B-2轰炸机。 “The risks of Iran acquiring a small nuclear arsenal are now higher than they were before the events of last week,” said Robert J. Einhorn, an arms control expert who negotiated with Iran during the Obama administration. “We can assume there are a number of hard-liners who are arguing that they should cross that nuclear threshold.” “伊朗获得一个小核武库的风险现在比上周的事情发生前更高了，”曾在奥巴马执政期间与伊朗谈判的军控专家罗伯特·艾因霍恩说。“我们可以料想，一些强硬派正在力主迈过拥核门槛。” Iran would face formidable hurdles to producing a bomb even if it made a concerted dash for one, Mr. Einhorn said, not least the knowledge that if the United States and Israel detect such a move, they will strike again. It is far from clear that Iran’s leaders, isolated, weakened and in disarray, want to provoke them. 即使伊朗孤注一掷，它在制造核弹上仍会面临重重障碍，艾因霍恩说，尤其是伊朗知道，如果美国和以色列察觉到异常的话，将再次发动攻击。现在尚不可知处于孤立、削弱且混乱状态的伊朗领导人是否甘愿招致打击。 麦克萨尔科技公司周日发布的卫星图像显示了遭美国打击后的伊朗福尔多铀浓缩设施。 Yet the logic of proliferation looms large in a world where the nuclear-armed great powers — the United States, Russia and China — are viewed as increasingly unreliable and even predatory toward their neighbors. From the Persian Gulf and Central Europe to East Asia, analysts said, nonnuclear countries are watching Iran’s plight and calculating lessons they should learn from it. 然而，核扩散逻辑的阴影已逼近，因为世界普遍认为拥核大国——美国、俄罗斯、中国——越来越不可靠，甚至欺负弱小的邻国。分析人士指出，从波斯湾和中欧到东亚，无核国家都在关注伊朗的困境，盘算着自己应该从中汲取的教训。 “Certainly, North Korea doesn’t rue the day it acquired nuclear weapons,” said Christopher R. Hill, who led lengthy, ultimately unsuccessful, talks with Pyongyang in 2007 and 2008 to try to persuade it to dismantle its nuclear program. “朝鲜当然不后悔拥核之日，”克里斯托弗·希尔说，他曾是2007年和2008年与平壤谈判的牵头人，这些试图说服朝鲜放弃核武项目的谈判进行了很长时间，但最终以失败告终。 The lure of the bomb, Mr. Hill said, has become stronger for America’s allies in the Middle East and Asia. Since World War II, they have sheltered under an American security umbrella. But they now confront a president, in Mr. Trump, who views alliances as incompatible with his vision of “America First.” 希尔指出，核弹诱惑对美国的中东和亚洲盟友变得越来越大。自第二次世界大战以来，这些盟友一直在美国安全保护伞的庇护下。但现在它们面对的是特朗普，这位总统认为联盟体系与他的“美国优先”愿景格格不入。 “I’d be very careful with the assumption that there is a U.S. nuclear umbrella,” said Mr. Hill, who served as ambassador to South Korea, Iraq, Poland, and Serbia under Democratic and Republican presidents. “Countries like Japan and South Korea are wondering whether they can rely on the U.S.” “对于所谓美国核保护伞的假设，我会持极其谨慎态度，”希尔说，他曾在民主党人和共和党人当总统期间出任驻韩国、伊拉克、波兰以及塞尔维亚大使。“像日本和韩国这样的国家已在质疑，美国是否还靠得住。” Support for developing nuclear weapons has risen in South Korea, though its newly elected president, Lee Jae-myung, has vowed to improve relations with North Korea. In 2023, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. signed a deal with Seoul to involve it more in nuclear planning with the United States, in part to head off a push by South Korean politicians and scientists to develop their own nuclear weapons capability. 尽管新上任的总统李在明已誓言改善与朝鲜的关系，但韩国支持发展核武器的人越来越多。2023年，美国总统拜登与韩国签署了一项让该国更多地参与美国核项目的协议，部分是为了防止韩国政界人士和科学家推动发展本国核武能力的努力。 平壤民众观看政府发布的火箭发射视频，据称发射时间为2017年。 In Japan, the public has long favored disarmament, a legacy of the American atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. But it has begun debating whether to store nuclear weapons from the United States on its soil, as some members of NATO do. Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister, said that if Ukraine had kept some of its Soviet-era bombs, it might have avoided a Russian invasion. 在日本，公众受1945年美国在广岛和长崎投下原子弹遗留下来的影响，长期以来支持裁军。但在日本国内已开始辩论是否效仿部分北约国家，在本土部署美国核武器。前首相安倍晋三曾声称，如果乌克兰保留了一些苏联时代的核弹的话，或可免遭俄罗斯的入侵。 President Vladimir V. Putin’s threats to use tactical nuclear weapons early in that conflict gave pause to the Biden administration about how aggressively to arm the Ukrainian military. It also deepened fears that other revisionist powers could use nuclear blackmail to intimidate their neighbors. 俄罗斯总统普京曾在俄乌战争早期威胁使用战术核武器，迫使拜登政府在如何积极地武装乌克兰军队上有所犹豫，也加深了人们对其他修正主义大国可能利用核讹诈恐吓邻国的担忧。 The lesson of Ukraine could end up being, “If you have nuclear weapons, keep them. If you don’t have them yet, get them, especially if you lack a strong defender like the U.S. as your ally and if you have a beef with a big country that could plausibly lead to war,” wrote Bruce Riedel and Michael E. O’Hanlon, analysts at the Brookings Institution, a research group in Washington, in 2022. 外界从乌克兰身上学到的教训最终可能是，“如果你拥有核武器，留着它们。如果你还没有，就去争取，尤其是当你没有美国这样的强大盟友作为你的捍卫者，而且你与一个大国存在可能导致战争的争端时，”华盛顿布鲁金斯学会的分析师布鲁斯·里德尔和迈克尔·奥汉隆在2022年写道。 Saudi Arabia, an ally of the United States and archrival of Iran, has watched Tehran’s nuclear ambitions with alarm. Experts say it would feel huge pressure to develop its own weapon if Iran ever obtained one. The United States has tried to reassure the Saudis by dangling assistance to a civil nuclear program, but those negotiations were interrupted by Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. 美国的盟友沙特阿拉伯是伊朗的主要竞争对手，它对德黑兰的核野心保持着高度警惕。专家们说，如果伊朗确实获得了核武器的话，沙特会感受到发展核武器的巨大压力。美国虽以民用核计划援助安抚沙特，但相关谈判被色列在加沙对哈马斯发动的战争所打断。 And yet, for all the predictions of a regional arms race, it has yet to occur. Experts say that is a testament to the success of nonproliferation policies, as well as to the checkered history of countries that pursued weapons. 然而，尽管外界普遍预测会出现地区军备竞赛，但这种情况还未发生。专家们表示，这既是防扩散政策成功的证明，也折射出拥核这条路不好走。 The Middle East is a messy landscape of dashed nuclear dreams. Iraq, Syria and Libya all had their programs dismantled by diplomacy, sanctions or military force. In the category of cautionary tales, Libya’s is perhaps the most vivid: Muammar el-Qaddafi gave up his weapons of mass destruction in 2003. Eight years later, after a NATO-backed military operation toppled his government, he crawled out of a drainpipe to face a brutal death at the hands of his own people. 中东是拥核梦想破灭的混乱之地。伊拉克、叙利亚、利比亚的核项目都已被外交、制裁或军事打击终结。作为警示案例，利比亚的结局也许最让人记忆犹新：穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲在2003年放弃了他的大规模杀伤性武器。八年后，北约支持的军事行动推翻了他的政府，卡扎菲从一个水泥管道里爬出来后，被他的人民殴打枪杀。 乔治·W·布什总统视察利比亚交出来的部分材料，摄于2004年。交出这些材料是利比亚同意放弃核武器和导弹计划的一部分。 Iran’s strategy of aggressively enriching uranium, while stopping short of a bomb, did not ultimately protect it either. 伊朗的战略是，在积极进行铀浓缩的同时不制造核弹，但这个战略最终也未能保护它。 “To the extent that people are looking at Iran as a test case, Trump has shown that its strategy is not a guarantee that you will prevent a military attack,” said Gary Samore, a professor at Brandeis University who worked on arms control negotiations in the Obama and Clinton administrations. “如果有人正在把伊朗视为一个案例的话，特朗普已向世界展示，伊朗的战略不能保证你免遭军事打击，”布兰迪斯大学教授加里·萨莫尔说，他曾在奥巴马政府和克林顿政府参与军控谈判工作。 Mr. Samore said it was too soon to say how the Israeli and American strikes on Iran would affect the calculus of other countries. “How does this end?” he said. “Does it end with a deal? Or is Iran left to pursue a nuclear weapon?” 萨莫尔说，讨论以色列和美国对伊朗的打击会如何影响其他国家的考量还为时过早。“这次结局如何？”他问道。“是达成协议？还是伊朗继续致力于发展核武器？” Experts on proliferation are, by nature, wary. But some are trying to find a silver lining in the events of the last week. Mr. Einhorn said that in delivering on his threat to bomb a nuclear-minded Iran, Mr. Trump had sent a reassuring message to American allies facing their own nuclear insecurities. 研究核扩散问题的专家天性谨慎。但有些人试图从上周发生的事情中找到一线光明。艾因霍恩说，特朗普兑现了他要对希望拥核的伊朗进行轰炸的威胁，这给面临核威慑焦虑的美国盟友们递上了定心丸。 “In Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing,” Mr. Einhorn said, “they’ve taken notice not just of the reach and capacity of the U.S. military, but the willingness of this president to use that capability.” “莫斯科方面、平壤方面，还有北京方面，”艾因霍恩说，“他们不仅见识到了美军的作战范围和实力，也注意到了这位总统有使用那种能力的意愿。” Mark Landler是时报伦敦分社社长，报道英国新闻以及美国在欧洲、亚洲和中东的外交政策。他从事新闻工作已超过30年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MEGAN K. STACK2025年6月26日 I heard some surprising refrains on my recent travels through China. “Leave your bags here,” a Chinese acquaintance or tour guide would suggest when I ducked off the streets into a public bathroom. “Don’t worry,” they’d shrug when I temporarily lost sight of my young son in the crowds. 前不久在中国旅行时，我经常听到一些让人惊讶的提醒。“把你的包留在外面，”我认识的中国人或中国导游在我打算走进大街上的公共厕所时会这样建议。“不用担心，”当我年幼的儿子暂时消失在人群中时，他们也会毫不在意地说。 The explanation always followed: “Nobody will do anything,” they’d say knowingly. Or, “There’s no crime.” And then, always, “There are so many cameras!” 接下来的解释总是——“没人会动你东西，”他们胸有成足地说道。或着“这里很安全的”。然后，必定会补上一句，“这里有这么多的摄像头！” I can’t imagine such blasé faith in public safety back when I last lived in China in 2013, but on this visit it was true: cameras gawked from poles, flashed as we drove through intersections, lingered on faces as we passed through stations or shops. And that was just the most obvious edge of the ubiquitous, multilayered tracking that has come to define life in China. I came away troubled by my time in some of the world’s most-surveilled places — not on China’s account, but because I felt that I’d gotten a taste of our own American future. Wasn’t this, after all, the logical endpoint of an evolution already underway in America? 我上次在中国生活是2013年，那时我无法想象人们会对公共安全如此笃定，但这次旅行的情况确实是这样：电线杆上的摄像头虎视眈眈；我们的车经过十字路口时，摄像头会闪烁拍照；进入车站或商店时，摄像头会“刷”我们的脸。而这些不过是中国日常生活中无处不在、多层次监控的最明显的一面。在世界上监控最严密的一些地方度过一段时间后，我心怀不安地离开了那里，让我忧虑的不是中国，而是仿佛提前尝到了美国未来的滋味。说到底，这不正是美国当前这样发展下去的必然结果吗？ There was a crash course on the invasive reality of a functionally cash-free society: credit cards refused and verge-of-extinct paper bills spurned. I had to do the thing I’d hoped to avoid, link a credit card to WeChat. That behemoth Chinese “super app” offers everything from banking to municipal services to social media to shopping, and is required to share data with the Chinese authorities. (Elon Musk, by the way, reportedly wants to turn his own app, X, into an invasive offering modeled after WeChat.) Having resigned myself to all-virtual payments, I knew I was corralled like everyone else into unbroken visibility, unable to spend a single yuan or wander down a forgotten side street without being tracked and recorded. 一个无现金社会给我上了有关侵入现实的速成课：信用卡被拒收，濒临淘汰的纸币被嫌弃。我不得不做了件本想避免的事情：把信用卡绑定微信。微信是中国的一款巨无霸般的“超级应用”，提供从银行到市政服务、从社交媒体到购物的所有功能，而且必须跟官方共享数据。（顺便说一下，据说埃隆·马斯克想把他拥有的应用程序X变成一个仿效微信的侵入式产品。）无奈地接受了移动支付后，我知道我和其他人一样，被圈进了无间断监控的围栏，哪怕花一元钱或拐进无名小巷，都会被追踪记录。 Crisscrossing China as a chaperone on my son’s school trip, I felt that a country I’d fondly remembered as a little rough-and-tumble had gotten calmer and cleaner. A part of me hated to see it. In my own mind, I couldn’t separate the safe, tidy streets from the repressive system of political control that underpins all those helpful cameras. 作为儿子学校旅行的随行家长，我穿梭于中国各地，中国以前曾给我留下的美好印象是喧嚣杂乱，这次给我的感觉是国家变得更平静、更干净了。这种变化竟让我有些惋惜。在我的意识里，安全整洁的街道与支撑着万千监控镜头的管控体系始终无法被割裂看待。 The Chinese Communist Party famously uses surveillance to crush dissent and, increasingly, is applying predictive algorithms to get ahead of both crimes and protest. People who screen as potential political agitators, for example, can be prevented from stepping onto trains bound for Beijing. During the Covid pandemic, Chinese health authorities used algorithmic contact tracing and QR codes to block people suspected of viral exposure from entering public spaces. Those draconian health initiatives helped to mainstream invasive surveillance and increase biometric data collection. 中国共产党以监控手段压制异见著称，而且日益借助预测算法来防止犯罪和抗议活动发生。例如，被政府筛定为潜在政治煽动者的人可能会被阻止登上进京列车。在新冠疫情期间，中国的卫生部门使用算法追踪接触者，并使用二维码来阻止被怀疑为接触者的人进入公共场所。这些严厉的防疫措施帮助侵入式监控的普及，助推了生物信息采集的常态化。 It would be comforting to think that China has created a singular dystopia, utterly removed from our American reality. But we are not as different as we might like to think. 如果认为中国已制造出来的反乌托邦世界独一无二、与美国的现实毫无关系，那也许让人稍感宽慰。但美国与中国之间的差异并没有我们一厢情愿以为的那么大。 Thankfully, our political architecture lacks a unified power structure akin to the C.C.P. Americans — who tend to value individual liberties over collective well-being — have deeply embedded rights which, at least theoretically, protect us from such abuses. 幸亏我们的政治架构中没有类似于中共的那种统一权力结构。往往将个人自由置于集体福祉之上的美国人享有宪法保障的权利，至少在理论上，这些权利保护我们免受监控滥用。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times But if Americans have learned one thing recently, it’s that rights we thought of as inalienable can prove perishable. We still think about surveillance as something that protects us (data-grabbing door cameras and security systems), that makes life easier (smart home systems, mapping tools, useful apps) or, at worst, that figures out how to sell us things we like (cookies, social media). Many Americans are oblivious to the porous boundary between private companies that collect our intimate details and the arms of government buying it up. As the Trump administration hardens into increasingly authoritarian methods of control, China should be a reminder that promises of safety and convenience can camouflage the machinery of political abuse. 但如果说美国人最近有所领悟的话，那就是我们过去认为不可剥夺的权利其实也是会消亡的。我们仍视监控为保护（例如收集大量数据的门禁摄像头和家庭防盗系统），让我们的生活更容易（例如智能家居系统、地图工具和实用应用软件），至多是推销利器（例如利用cookie、社交媒体）。许多美国人对私营公司收集个人信息与政府部门购买数据之间的模糊界限浑然不觉。随着特朗普政府日益采用威权化管控手段，中国的现状理应成为一种警示，即所谓安全便利的承诺，实则政治滥权的伪装。 *** *** As my face was getting scanned all over China, Elon Musk’s minions with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency were ransacking federal agencies to seize Americans’ data and sensitive information. Legal experts maintain that accessing this data is illegal under federal privacy laws, which broadly forbid government agencies from disclosing our personal information to anyone, including other parts of the government, without our written consent. But, in the event, neither the law nor our lawmakers protected us. 我被中国各地的摄像头扫脸时，埃隆·马斯克麾下那个所谓政府效率部（简称DOGE）正在洗劫联邦机构，盗取美国人的数据和敏感信息。法律专家坚称，根据联邦隐私法，获取这些数据是非法的，联邦隐私法明文禁止政府机构在未经我们书面授权的情况下向任何人（包括政府的其他部门）泄露我们的个人信息。但这次，无论是法律还是我们的立法者都没有保护我们。 Mr. Musk’s team moved to access Social Security Administration data containing medical and mental health records, bank and credit card information, and birth and marriage certificates. This month, the Supreme Court temporarily allowed DOGE to access sensitive Social Security records. That means that DOGE staff, under the vague slogan of eliminating wasteful spending, can peruse files containing the most jealously guarded details of millions of American lives — everything from salary to addiction and psychiatric health records. 马斯克的团队已动手获取了社会保障局的数据，这些数据包含医疗和心理健康记录、银行和信用卡信息，以及出生和结婚证明。本月，最高法院暂时允许了DOGE访问敏感的社会保障记录。这意味着，DOGE工作人员能打着消除浪费性支出这个模糊口号的幌子查阅文件，这些文件中有数百万美国人生活中最小心翼翼保守的细节，包括历年的工资记录，以及毒瘾和心理健康档案等所有东西。 “What is this going to be used for?” asked Daniel Solove, a George Washington University law professor and the author of several books on privacy and technology. “What are the protections? Where does he have it? What will be done with it? What could be done with it in the future? “这些数据将作何用途？”乔治华盛顿大学的法学教授丹尼尔·索洛夫问道，他写过多本有关隐私和技术的专著。“有什么保护措施？他把这些数据放在哪里？当前作何处理？将来又会用这些数据干什么？” “None of these questions are answered,” he said. “There’s no transparency, no accountability, no limitations.” “所有这些问题都没有答案，”他说。“没有透明度，没有问责，也没有任何限制措施。” Meanwhile, the data analysis and technology firm Palantir, which was co-founded by Alex Karp and Peter Thiel (another Trump acolyte), has already received more than $113 million from the federal government since President Trump took office again. Officials have told The Times that the Trump administration is using Palantir technology to help consolidate data on Americans held by disparate federal agencies so that it could potentially create a centralized dossier. In April, Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced a $30 million contract with Palantir to create a system that will give ICE “near real time visibility” of people self-deporting, and prioritize whom to deport next. 与此同时，自从特朗普再次担任总统以来，由亚历克斯·卡普和彼得·泰尔（特朗普的又一个追随者）共同创立的数据分析公司Palantir已从联邦政府获得了逾1.13亿美元的资金。官员们对《纽约时报》说，特朗普政府正在用Palantir的技术帮助整合不同联邦机构持有的美国人数据，让政府有可能建立一个集中档案。今年4月，美国移民和海关执法局（简称ICE）宣布与Palantir签订了一份价值3000万美元的合同，让公司创建一个系统，使ICE能“近乎实时地追踪”自我离境者，并据此锁定优先驱逐对象。 Mr. Trump’s second term has been marked by incessant talk of investing in A.I., winning at A.I., getting ready for A.I., while tech executives lavish money on Mr. Trump and jockey for favor. The president has made it clear that he doesn’t want any pesky state governments getting in the way of this sensitive, emerging technology. 在特朗普的第二任期里，关于人工智能的论调喧嚣尘上：投资人工智能，在人工智能领域获胜，为人工智能做准备，同时，科技巨头们不惜为特朗普掏大钱，试图博得他的欢心。总统已明确表示，他不想让那些令人讨厌的州政府阻碍这项敏感新兴技术的发展。 All state laws regulating A.I. — dozens of them — would be nullified, and states would be banned from creating new A.I. regulations for the next decade under a measure embedded among the tax cuts and social spending cuts that the House passed in Mr. Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Senate Republicans have proposed replacing the ban with a measure blocking federal funding for broadband projects if states regulate A.I. It’s not paranoid to ask what Mr. Trump, tech executives and their political allies have in mind. 在特朗普的“大而美法案”中，众议院向各种减税和社会支出削减措施中塞进了一项措施，将废除所有监管人工智能的几十项州法律，各州将被禁止在未来十年制定新的人工智能法规。参议院共和党人提议用另一项措施来取代该禁令，即一旦一个州要监管人工智能，联邦就停止拨发宽带项目经费。在这种情况下，希望弄清特朗普、科技高管及其政治盟友的真实想法，并非一种杞人忧天。 The government’s enthusiasm for this emerging technology is disquieting. A.I. could help to supersize the surveillance state, offering the potential to quickly synthesize and draw inferences from massive quantities of data. 政府对这种新兴技术的热情令人不安。人工智能可以帮助扩大监控国家的规模，提供快速综合大量数据，并从中得出推论的潜力。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times “The really powerful thing is when personal data get integrated,” said Maya Wang, associate China director at Human Rights Watch. “Not only am I me, but I like these things, and I’m related to so-and-so, and my friends are like this, and I like to go to these events regularly on Wednesdays at 6:30. It’s knowing relationships, movements and also any irregularities.” “真正厉害的地方在于个人数据被整合起来，”人权观察组织中国部副主任王松莲说。“我不仅是我，还包括我喜欢这些东西，我和什么什么有关，我的朋友是这样的，我喜欢每周三6:30定期去参加这些活动。它了解人际关系、活动以及任何异常行为。” Ms. Wang mentioned Police Cloud, an ambitious Chinese public safety project that uses all manner of collected data to find hidden relationships between events and people; to spy on those considered dangerous (petitioners, dissidents, Uyghurs, people with “extreme thoughts,” according to a document reviewed by Human Rights Watch); and to combine real-time monitoring with predictions for what may be about to happen. Predictive software has been adopted by local authorities around China: A Tianjin data project designed to head off protests analyzes who is most likely to file complaints; software in the city of Nanning can warn authorities if “more than three key people” checked into a hotel. 王松莲提到了警务云，这是一个庞大的中国公共安全项目，利用收集的各种数据来发现事件和人之间的隐藏关系；监视那些被认为危险的人（上访者、异见者、维吾尔人，还有被人权观察查阅的一份文件声称为有“极端思想”的人）；并将实时监测与可能发生的事情的预测结合起来。中国各地的地方政府都采用了预测软件：天津的一个旨在阻止抗议活动的数据项目分析了谁最有可能提出投诉；南宁市的一款软件可以在“三个以上关键人物”入住酒店时向有关部门发出警告。 It’s not that our government is using the surveillance infrastructure in the same manner as China. It’s that, as far as the technology goes, it could. 这并不是说我们的政府使用监控设施的方式和中国一样。然而就目前的技术而言，这是可能的。 “People used to say, in a xenophobic way, ‘We don’t want to end up like China,’” said Caitlin Seeley George, managing director at Fight for The Future, an organization advocating rights in the digital age. “The truth is, it may be a little less visible to us, it may look a little different, but the systems are in place here to support that kind of data sharing.” “人们过去常以一种仇外的方式说，‘我们不想落得和中国一样，’”数字时代权利倡导组织“争取未来”常务董事凯特琳·西利·乔治说。“实际上，这对我们来说可能没那么明显，看起来可能有点不同，但支持那种数据共享的系统，其实在这里也已经建立起来了。” The government has also been using privately collected data to crack down on ordinary Americans — mostly, so far, in the realm of immigration enforcement, but not exclusively. 政府也一直在使用私人收集的数据来打击普通美国人——到目前为止，主要是在移民执法领域，但并不仅限于此。 In 2023, for example, a Nebraska teenager and her mother were imprisoned after the police obtained their private Facebook messages discussing the use of abortion pills to end the teenager’s pregnancy. 例如，在2023年，内布拉斯加州的一名少女和她的母亲被监禁，因为警方获得了她们在Facebook上讨论使用堕胎药为少女终止妊娠的私人信息。 In 2018 The Verge reported that Palantir (yes, Palantir again) had for years been secretly collaborating with New Orleans police to experiment with using troves of previously siloed data to identify people who were deemed more likely to commit crimes. 2018年，The Verge报道称，Palantir（是的，又是Palantir）多年来一直在与新奥尔良警方秘密合作，试验使用以前被隔离的数据来识别被认为更有可能犯罪的人。 Since Mr. Musk started his big DOGE data grab, a spate of lawsuits has been filed by civil liberties and technology watchdogs, labor unions and state governments seeking to stop the seizures and get more information about what’s already been handed over. 自从马斯克的DOGE开始大规模获取数据以来，公民自由和技术监管机构、工会和州政府提起了一系列诉讼，试图阻止这些数据的获取，并获得更多有关已提交数据的信息。 The government has offered little explanation for what it’s doing with our data but, in April, Wired reported that DOGE has already started to integrate immigration data with Social Security and tax data. 政府几乎没有解释它在用我们的数据做什么，但《连线》在4月报道称，政府部门已经开始将移民数据与社会保障和税收数据整合起来。 This is particularly nefarious given the recent abuse of immigration enforcement. Students here on valid visas were overtly targeted because of their political speech — specifically, for participating in legal demonstrations for Palestinian rights. The State Department officials have described plans to use A.I. surveillance to comb social media posts to identify students for visa revocation. (It’s worth noting that invasive government perusal of social media is a bipartisan tendency — under President Joe Biden, for example, the Department of Homeland Security combed social media looking for discussions of abortion after Roe v. Wade was overturned.) 鉴于最近移民执法的滥用，这种做法尤其恶劣。持有效签证的学生因为他们的政治言论——特别是参加争取巴勒斯坦人权利的合法示威——而成为公开攻击的目标。美国国务院官员描述了利用人工智能监控梳理社交媒体帖子，以识别需要被吊销签证的学生的计划。（值得注意的是，政府对社交媒体的侵入性研读是两党共同的趋势——例如，在拜登总统的领导下，国土安全部在罗诉韦德案被推翻后，搜寻了社交媒体，寻找有关堕胎的讨论。） Surveillance and tech specialists warn: This could be just the beginning. 监视和技术专家警告称：这可能只是一个开始。 Gilles Sabrie for The New York Times “Once you consolidate data in a massive way like this, where your tax records are living next to your federal contracting records and your political donation records, the opportunity for abuse is significant,” said Cody Venzke, a senior policy counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union, which is among the organizations suing the federal government for information about the DOGE data breach. 美国公民自由联盟高级政策顾问科迪·文兹克说：“一旦你像这样大规模地整合数据，你的税务记录就与你的联邦合同记录和政治捐款记录放在一起，滥用数据的机会就很大了。”美国公民自由联盟是起诉联邦政府、要求政府部门提供数据泄露信息的组织之一。 China manipulates data to create social credit scores that identify untrustworthy businesses or that allow overzealous officials to blacklist citizens for perceived vices. 中国通过数据操控来创建社会信用评分，以识别不值得信任的企业，或者让那些好大喜功的官员可以将他们觉得行为不端的公民列入黑名单。 Many Americans, whether they know it or not, have also been scored by state authorities, aided by ill-gotten information and predictive software. 许多美国人——不管他们是否知道——也被州政府当局利用非法获取的信息和预测软件进行了评分。 Here’s how it happens: All those private details collected by the many apps on your phone, not to mention the smart home devices, doorbell cameras and, of course, your car — that information winds up in the hands of salespeople known as data brokers. The data brokers, in turn, frequently sell to government agencies, especially law enforcement. Police who spend our tax money to buy this data are exploiting dubious loopholes, carrying out what amounts to a search and seizure en masse, without warrant or subpoena — and it happens every day. 事情是这样发生的：你手机上的许多应用程序收集的所有私人信息，更不用说智能家居设备、门铃摄像头，当然还有你的汽车——这些信息最终落入了被称为数据掮客的销售人员手中。反过来，这些数据中间商经常把数据卖给政府机构，尤其是执法部门。用我们的税款购买这些数据的警察正在利用可疑的漏洞，在没有搜查令或传票的情况下，进行大规模搜查和扣押——这种情况每天都在发生。 Some U.S. law enforcement bodies have already experimented with feeding the fruits of mass surveillance — faces, social media posts, location data and anything else they can scrounge from the data brokers — into predictive software to generate “threat scores” for individuals. 一些美国执法机构已经尝试将大规模监控的成果——面孔、社交媒体帖子、位置数据以及他们可以从数据掮客那里搜到的任何其他东西——输入预测软件，为个人生成“威胁评分”。 A Department of Justice report published late last year on A.I. and criminal justice sounded an enthusiastic note on software-generated risk assessments, noting that A.I. actuarial models “can outperform human judgments alone.” 司法部去年年底发表的一份关于人工智能和刑事司法的报告对软件生成的风险评估表现出极大的热情，指出人工智能精算模型“可以超越仅靠人类的判断”。 “Transparency is also a concern,” the report acknowledged. “Individuals who are subject to a risk assessment tool (and their representatives) may not know that the tool was used or have sufficient information to understand how it works and how it performs. Affected individuals also may not be aware of the inputs provided to the tool or have an opportunity to correct mistakes.” “透明度也是一个问题，”报告承认。“受风险评估工具影响的个人（及其代表）可能不知道该工具已被使用，或者没有足够的信息来理解它是如何工作和执行的。受影响的个人也可能没有意识到向工具提供的输入信息，也没有机会纠正错误。” It’s not just police. Public schools across the country have enthusiastically embraced “early warning” algorithms that plumb students’ private information to score their likelihood of dropping out. Here, too, lies the problem of cost/benefit — advocates for the early warning systems say they protect struggling or at-risk children from slipping unnoticed through the cracks. But many parents have no idea that data on their children’s attendance, behavior, and test scores are being gathered and submitted to predictive software. 不仅仅是警察。全国各地的公立学校都热衷于采用了“早期预警”算法，这种算法可以探测学生的私人信息，为他们退学的可能性打分。这里也存在成本/收益的问题——早期预警系统的倡导者说，它们保护了面临困难或有风险的儿童，使他们不会被忽视。但许多家长并不知道，有关他们孩子出勤、行为和考试成绩的数据正在被收集并提交给预测软件。 Even more troubling, school-collected data has sometimes made its way into the hands of law enforcement. 更令人不安的是，学校收集的数据有时会落入执法部门的手中。 Somehow, in all of this, our understanding of privacy — why it matters and who needs it — seems to have slumped. The men who drafted the earliest list of American rights, having recently fought an insurgency against colonial overlords who barged into their homes and stores whenever they pleased, retained a firm belief in privacy’s outsized importance as a condition of freedom. The Bill of Rights protects a range of privacies — of the home, the body, religious belief and even — as reflected in the Fifth Amendment’s right not to incriminate oneself — knowledge and personal information. 不知何故，在发生这一切的同时，我们对隐私的理解——为什么隐私很重要，谁需要隐私——似乎有所下降。起草美国最早一份权利清单的人曾发起反抗殖民统治的起义——当时的殖民者会随意闯入他们的住宅和商铺。因此他们深信，隐私是自由的一个条件，具有极其重要的意义。《权利法案》保护一系列隐私——家庭、身体、宗教信仰，甚至知识和个人信息方面的隐私，正如第五修正案中规定的不自证其罪的权利所体现的那样。 Jeremy L. Daum, a legal scholar and senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, has spent years living in China and studying the country’s legal system. That work, he said, made him a witness to rapidly shifting attitudes toward privacy both in China and in the United States. He pointed out that Americans, particularly in the wake of Sept. 11, “used to talk about giving up privacy for security.” 法律学者、耶鲁大学法学院蔡崇信中国中心高级研究员杰里米·道姆在中国生活多年，研究中国的法律制度。他说，这项工作让他见证了中国和美国对隐私态度的迅速转变。他指出，美国人，特别是在9·11事件之后，“曾经说要为了安全而放弃隐私”。 “Now we give it up for convenience, and it seems to me that our private information is getting cheaper,” he said. “The bargain is not well earned at this point.” “现在我们为了方便而放弃了隐私，在我看来，我们的私人信息正变得越来越廉价，”他说。“在这一点上，这笔交易没有得到很好的回报。” Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times Back from China, I found myself reading through the Privacy Act of 1974, and felt like I had opened a time capsule. Introducing the legislation, a result of revelations about Watergate and F.B.I. surveillance, Senator Sam Ervin of North Carolina reminded lawmakers that privacy assured that “the minds and hearts of Americans remain free.” To relinquish any bit of information to the government, he warned starkly, was to give away one’s freedom. 从中国回来后，我开始通读1974年的《隐私法》，感觉就像打开了一个时间胶囊。北卡罗来纳州参议员萨姆·欧文在介绍这项因水门事件和联邦调查局监控事件而产生的立法时提醒立法者，隐私确保了“美国人的思想和心灵保持自由”。他直截了当地警告说，向政府透露任何信息都是在放弃自己的自由。 “The more the government or any institution knows about us, the more power it has over us,” Senator Ervin said. “When the government knows all of our secrets, we stand naked before official power. Stripped of our privacy, we lose our rights and privileges.” “政府或任何机构对我们了解得越多，它对我们的权力就越大，”欧文说。“当政府知道我们所有的秘密时，我们就赤裸裸地站在官方权力面前。被剥夺了隐私，我们就失去了权利和特权。” It’s hard to imagine a leader of today’s Senate speaking with such lucidity about privacy. Since the terror attacks of Sept. 11, we’ve repeatedly heard our leaders denigrate the siloing of our private information as if it were an impediment — and not a critical safeguard meant to protect us from the government. An executive order from Mr. Trump explicitly identifies information silos (in other words, the time-honored and legally mandated practice of federal agencies storing people’s private information secure from view, including by other parts of the government) as a source of “waste, fraud and abuse.” 很难想象一名如今的参议院领导人在谈到隐私问题时能讲得如此透彻。自9·11恐怖袭击以来，我们一再听到我们的领导人诋毁我们的私人信息孤岛机制，仿佛这是一种障碍，而不是一种旨在保护我们免受政府侵害的关键保障措施。特朗普的一项行政命令明确指出，信息孤岛（这是一种历史悠久、法律规定的做法，联邦机构将人们的私人信息安全地存储在人们看不到的地方，包括政府的其他部门）是“浪费、欺诈和滥用”的来源。 The cultural shift is, perhaps, as insidious as the surveillance itself. We know, on some level, that we are already exposed before invisible watchers. We are hooked on the tech that comes with it, and we think we can’t change it. 这种文化转变也许和监控本身一样隐蔽。我们知道，在某种程度上，我们已经暴露在无形的观察者面前。我们被它带来的技术所吸引，认为自己无法改变它。 But we can. While Congress and the federal government have, so far, remained feckless against the excesses of surveillance, state and local officials have shown a little more spine. 但是我们可以改变它。到目前为止，国会和联邦政府对过度监控仍然无动于衷，州和地方官员则表现出了更多的勇气。 Just last month, Montana became the first state to close what’s called the “data broker loophole,” restricting the government from buying private information about people — a protection that still, despite years of legislative efforts, doesn’t exist at the federal level. At least 20 states have enacted comprehensive consumer data protection laws, and many cities have tried to prevent the use of facial recognition technology — although the police sometimes worked around the ban by outsourcing to neighboring law enforcement offices. 就在上个月，蒙大拿州成为第一个关闭所谓的“数据掮客漏洞”的州，限制政府购买人们的私人信息——尽管经过多年的立法努力，这种保护仍然不存在于联邦层面。至少有20个州颁布了全面的消费者数据保护法，许多城市试图阻止面部识别技术的使用——尽管警方有时会通过将这项工作外包给邻近的执法部门来绕开禁令。 The companies getting rich off building a surveillance state aren’t going to announce their intentions. Our lawmakers aren’t going to come out and say that, if their voters don’t notice or care, it’s easier for them to avoid confronting the powerful executives and leaders experimenting with ways to spy on us. 那些靠建立监控国家而发家的公司是不会宣布他们的意图的。我们的立法者也不会站出来说出这些，如果他们的选民不注意或不关心，他们宁可回避与那些试图监视我们的强大高管以及领导人对抗。 Mr. Trump and his tech cronies are charging ahead fast. If we keep sleepwalking into a surveillance state, we may eventually wake up in a place we hardly recognize as our own. 特朗普和他的科技界伙伴们正在快速前进。如果我们继续梦游，走入一种被监视的状态，最终醒来时，或许会发现自己身处一个几乎认不出的陌生国度。 Megan K. Stack是观点文章作者。她曾驻中国、俄罗斯、埃及、以色列、阿富汗和美墨边境地区担任记者。她的首部著作讲述了“9·11”事件后的战争，并入围美国国家图书奖非虚构类奖项。欢迎在Twiiter上关注她：@Megankstack。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
储百亮2025年6月26日2023年，台湾举行的一场反登陆演习。 President Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, after earlier denouncing U.S. embroilment in foreign wars, introduces another complication for China’s leaders trying to fathom how he might handle conflict over Taiwan. 特朗普总统先是谴责美国卷入对外战争，之后又决定攻击伊朗的核设施，这给中国领导人带来了另一个复杂因素，他们正试图琢磨特朗普可能会如何处理台湾问题上的冲突。 Chinese officials and experts were already trying to game out Mr. Trump’s approach to Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. They will now likely be assessing the Iran strikes for new insights into Mr. Trump, who had opposed military action months earlier while he pursued diplomacy, and then rained missiles and bombs on three key nuclear sites on Sunday. 中国官员和专家本就在试图摸清特朗普对台策略，北京声称这个民主岛屿是其领土。他们现在可能会评估特朗普对伊朗的打击行动，以加深对他的了解。几个月前，特朗普在寻求外交途径的同时反对采取军事行动，而在周日，他又向伊朗三个关键的核设施发射了导弹和炸弹。 For China, Mr. Trump is a bit of a wild card in scenarios of how the United States would respond to Beijing’s efforts to bring Taiwan to heel, including any attempt to take the island by force. The United States has long helped fend off China’s military pressure and deter a possible attack by selling Taiwan weapons and holding out the option that it could send forces if war erupts. 对中国而言，在预测美国如何回应北京迫使台湾就范努力（包括任何以武力夺取台湾的企图）的各种设想中，特朗普有点像一个不确定因素。长期以来，美国通过对台军售以及保留在战争爆发时可能军事介入的选项帮助台湾抵御中国的军事压力，阻止可能发生的攻击。 Some Chinese analysts have questioned whether, with the right cajoling or warnings, Mr. Trump may be persuaded to ease America’s support of Taiwan. After all, in his trade war with China, Mr. Trump veered from imposing sky-high tariffs to agreeing to a provisional truce, basically backing down after China choked off shipments of critical minerals. The Iran strikes further illustrated Mr. Trump’s mercurial style. 一些中国分析人士提出，是否有可能通过适当的劝诱或警告说服特朗普放松美国对台湾的支持。毕竟，在与中国的贸易战中，特朗普从征收天价关税转向同意临时休战，基本上是在中国切断关键矿产的运输后做出了让步。对伊朗的袭击进一步说明了特朗普反复无常的风格。 “After the Iran strikes, I suspect that Chinese leaders will now be more nervous about testing President Trump’s resolve” on Taiwan, said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “Caution is warranted, both because Trump appears more willing to use force than many expected, but also because his actions seem less predictable.” “在伊朗遭到袭击之后，我怀疑中国领导人现在会更加紧张，不敢（在台湾问题上）考验特朗普总统的决心，”美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀说。“谨慎是有必要的，不仅因为特朗普动用武力的意愿超出预期，也因为他的行动似乎不那么容易预测。” Before the attack, China seemed to have stepped up efforts to sound out Mr. Trump’s thinking on Taiwan. 在这次袭击之前，中国似乎已加大努力探听特朗普在台湾问题上的想法。 中国国家主席习近平3月在北京人民大会堂。他指责台湾政府挑衅对抗、制造冲突。 During a call with Mr. Trump earlier this month, Mr. Xi stressed the importance of Taiwan. He suggested that he and Mr. Trump should be like co-captains steering the “great ship of China-U.S. relations,” in what looked like an attempt to drive a wedge between Mr. Trump and American officials who take a hard line against Beijing. 在本月早些时候与特朗普的通话中，习近平强调了台湾的重要性。他提出，他和特朗普应该像共同船长一样，为“中美关系这艘大船”掌舵，这似乎是试图在特朗普与那些对北京采取强硬立场的美国官员之间制造隔阂。 Beijing calls Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, a separatist, and this week fiercely denounced him for a recent speech in which he laid out his case that Taiwan is an “independent country.” Mr. Xi has accused Mr. Lai’s government of courting “confrontation and even conflict.” Taiwan’s government, and many on both sides of politics in Washington, say that it is China’s menacing behavior that is stoking tensions. 北京称台湾总统赖清德为分裂分子，并在本周对他最近的一次讲话发起猛烈抨击，他在讲话中阐述了台湾是一个“主权独立国家”的立场。习近平指责赖清德政府寻求“冲突对抗”。台湾政府和华盛顿政界两党中的许多人都表示，正是中国的威胁性行为激化了紧张局势。 Some Chinese researchers who recently met American counterparts seemed to be trying to assess Mr. Trump’s red lines. “The Chinese experts I’ve met with have been asking pointed questions about what Trump would do if Beijing took action against Taiwan,” Mr. Cooper said. 最近与美国同行会面的一些中国研究人员似乎在试图评估特朗普的红线在哪里。“我接触过的中国专家一直在问一些尖锐的问题，比如如果北京对台湾采取行动，特朗普会怎么做，”库珀说。 China’s probing has long played out in action. It has stepped up military activity and coast guard operations around Taiwan in recent years, seeking to test how Taiwan and the United States and its allies respond, and also trying to wear down the Taiwanese military. 中国的试探早已付诸行动。近年来，中国加强了在台湾周边的军事活动和海警行动，试探台湾和美国及其盟友的反应，同时也试图削弱台湾军队。 That pressure is unlikely to let up. China sends military aircraft near Taiwan nearly every day, sometimes in the dozens. In May, Beijing deployed as many as 70 warships off the eastern coast of China, a senior Taiwanese security official told reporters this month. For the first time, China sent two aircraft carriers and supporting naval ships into the Pacific this month, beyond what is known as the first island chain, which includes the Japanese archipelago and Taiwan, drawing protests from Tokyo. 这种压力不太可能缓解。中国几乎每天都会出动军机靠近台湾，有时多达数十架次。台湾一名高级安全官员本月告诉记者，今年5月，北京在中国东部沿海部署了多达70艘军舰。本月，中国首次派遣两艘航母和护卫舰进入太平洋，越过了包括日本列岛和台湾在内的第一岛链，引发了东京方面的抗议。 去年竞选台湾总统期间，赖清德在台北进行的造势活动。 China wants to be ready for the spectrum of possibilities for Taiwan under Mr. Trump, including “a rapid escalation in tensions or even things slipping out of control,” said Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. 中国希望为特朗普任期内台湾问题的各种可能性做好准备，包括“紧张的急速升级，甚至失控”，上海复旦大学台湾研究中心主任信强说。 “The issues around Iran and Taiwan are very different, and the range of factors that shape U.S. decision-making are also very different,” Professor Xin said. But he saw a broad lesson in Mr. Trump’s attack on Iran: “This implies that when President Trump deems it necessary, he will choose armed force to advance American foreign policy.” “伊朗和台湾问题因为还是差别很大的，影响美国决策的各方面的因素差别也是也是很大的，”信强说。但他从特朗普对伊朗的攻击中看到了一个广泛的教训：“这就意味着特朗普总统还是在他觉得必要的条件之下会选择使用武力来推行美国的外交政策。” Mr. Trump’s administration has signaled support for Taiwan, while also urging it to rapidly increase military spending. In a speech in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China’s military threat “could be imminent.” But Mr. Hegseth also made clear that Mr. Trump called the shots. 特朗普政府已经释放信号支持台湾，同时也敦促台湾迅速增加军事开支。国防部长海格塞斯在新加坡的一次演讲中警告 称，中国的军事威胁“可能迫在眉睫”。但海格塞斯也明确表示，特朗普才是说了算的人。 That’s what worries some in Washington and Taipei: that Beijing could persuade Mr. Trump to dilute, in actions or just words, U.S. support for Taiwan, which deepened in Mr. Trump’s first term and then under President Biden. 这正是华盛顿和台北的一些人所担心的：北京可能会说服特朗普在行动或言辞上淡化美国对台湾的支持，这种支持在特朗普的第一个任期和后来的拜登政府时期不断加深。 “The administration as a whole seems to be predominantly pursuing continuity” in security support for Taiwan, said Bonnie S. Glaser, an expert on Taiwan and China at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington. “It’s the president himself that introduces the uncertainty and unpredictability.” “美国政府作为一个整体似乎主要追求对台湾安全支持的连续性，”华盛顿的德国马歇尔基金会台湾和中国问题专家葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说。“是总统本人带来了不确定性和不可预测性"。 2023年，台湾桃园举行的一场军事演习。 Some experts in Taiwan praised Mr. Trump’s strike on Iran as an indirect message to Beijing. “It’s hitting the little brother, Iran, to warn the big brothers, Russia and China,” said Ou Si-fu, a researcher at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research. 台湾的一些专家称赞特朗普对伊朗的打击，认为这是向北京发出的间接信息。“是打小弟伊朗给大哥俄中看，”政府资助的国防安全研究所研究员欧锡富说。 But when it comes to Taiwan, Mr. Trump, like most recent U.S. presidents, has been deliberately vague about whether the United States would defend the island if China attacked, a position designed to deter Beijing while restraining Taiwan. 但在台湾问题上，特朗普和最近几任美国总统一样，在中国进攻台湾时美国是否会保卫台湾的问题上故意含糊其辞，这一立场旨在威慑北京，同时牵制台湾。 He has also questioned how effective U.S. intervention could be against China’s forces, which are much closer to Taiwan. In his first term, Mr. Trump likened Taiwan to the tip of a Sharpie marker and China to the bulky Resolute Desk in the White House, according to John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser. 他还质疑美国的干预面对中国军队究竟有多大效果，因为中国军队离台湾更近。据特朗普的前国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿说，特朗普在第一任期内曾把台湾比作时马克笔的笔尖，而把中国比作白宫里笨重的“坚毅桌”。 And while Mr. Trump has criticized China’s economic practices and its handling of Covid, he has also declared his admiration for Mr. Xi, saying after their latest call that the leaders had invited each other and their spouses to visit. 虽然特朗普曾批评中国的经济行为以及对新冠疫情的处理方式，但也表达了对习近平的钦佩，并在最近一次通话后表示，两国领导人已相互邀请对方携配偶来访。 Should the leaders meet, even seemingly minor concessions in how Mr. Trump’s talks about Taiwan could be a win for Beijing, given the island’s reliance on assurances from Washington, said Amanda Hsiao, the China director for the Eurasia Group, a firm that advises investors. 投资顾问公司欧亚集团的中国事务总监萧嫣然说，如果两位领导人会面，考虑到台湾对华盛顿承诺的依赖，在特朗普谈及台湾时即使做出看似微小的让步，对北京来说也可能是一场胜利。 Still, China’s leaders are also steeled for the risk of a crisis over Taiwan. And they are confident that their military is much more formidable than the weakened Iranian forces that Israeli and U.S. forces overcame, Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told an online briefing this week. China has about 3,500 missiles, as well as a growing nuclear arsenal and a fast-expanding navy. 尽管如此，中国领导人也做好了应对台海危机风险的准备。新美国安全中心高级研究员斯塔西·佩蒂约翰本周在一次线上简报会上表示，中国有信心他们的军队比伊朗军队强大得多，后者被以色列和美国军队击败并遭到削弱。中国拥有大约3500枚导弹，以及不断增长的核武库和快速扩张的海军。 “The U.S. couldn’t just swoop in there with an exquisite capability and launch a limited number of strikes and win,” Ms. Pettyjohn said of a possible conflict over Taiwan. “That is something that would be very clear to Beijing.” “美国不可能凭借高超的能力迅速介入，发动几次打击就一举取胜，”佩蒂约翰在谈到可能发生的台海冲突时说。“对北京来说，这一点是非常清楚的。” 美国海军一架侦察机在南中国海执行任务，摄于2018年。 Amy Chang Chien对本文有报道贡献。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是时报首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID E. SANGER, TYLER PAGER2025年6月26日 President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio made their most detailed case yet on Wednesday at a NATO summit in the Netherlands for why they believe the American attack on Iran dealt a fatal blow to its nuclear ambitions, pushing back on the findings of a U.S. intelligence report and more cautious statements from international nuclear inspectors. 特朗普总统和国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周三在荷兰举行的北约峰会上作出了迄今最详尽的阐述，坚称美国对伊朗的打击行动已摧毁了它的核野心，驳斥了美国情报报告和国际核查人员更为谨慎的评估。 While Mr. Trump largely repeated his assertions that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated,” Mr. Rubio stepped in with the first description of why he thought the attack had set back the Iranians’ progress for years rather than by only a few months, as a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency report said. His argument centered on evidence that a “conversion facility” — which is key to converting nuclear fuel from a gas into the form needed to produce a nuclear weapon — has been destroyed. 尽管特朗普基本上是在重复他关于伊朗核设施被“彻底摧毁”的主张，但鲁比奥首次详细说明了他为何认为这次袭击使伊朗的核项目进展倒退了数年，而非国防情报局初步报告所称的仅仅倒退数月。他的论点集中在有证据表明一个“转化设施”已被摧毁，而这个设施是核燃料从气体转化为制造核武器所需形式的关键。 The question of whether Iran could recover from the strike on Sunday morning dominated the meeting of the 32 NATO nations. It overshadowed a major accomplishment for Mr. Trump: an agreement among most of the allies, with the notable exception of Spain, to spend 5 percent of their gross domestic product on defense within a decade as they face down Russian military aggression. Mr. Trump had demanded the increase and celebrated the moment, telling reporters during an hourlong news conference, “I began pushing for additional commitments in 2017.” 北约32国此次峰会的焦点集中在伊朗能否从周日凌晨的打击中恢复。这甚至盖过特朗普的一项重大成就：除西班牙这一显著例外，多数成员国同意未来十年将国防支出提升至国内生产总值的5%，以应对俄罗斯的军事威胁。增加国防开支是应特朗普的要求，他在长达一小时的新闻发布会上庆祝了这一时刻，他对记者表示：“我从2017年开始就推动各国作出更多承诺了。” But his anger over the disclosure of the intelligence report on the effects of the strike against Iran was palpable. Mr. Trump accused news organizations that questioned how much damage had been done to Iran’s program of betraying “these brave patriots, these incredible fliers” who streaked halfway across the globe from Missouri to bomb the prime target, an enrichment plant called Fordo buried deep in a mountain. He and other administration officials repeatedly argued that because the attack had been executed so flawlessly, it was offensive to even question the results. 但显而易见的是，他对打击效果的情报报告遭到泄露感到震怒。特朗普指责那些质疑伊朗核项目受损程度的新闻机构背叛了“这些勇敢的爱国者，这些了不起的飞行员”，他们从密苏里州横跨半个地球，轰炸了主要目标——一个深埋在山中的名为福尔多的铀浓缩工厂。他和其他政府官员一再强调，由于打击行动执行得如此完美，对结果的质疑实属一种冒犯。 Mr. Trump also announced on Wednesday the United States and Iran would hold talks next week, though he provided no details about the participants or the purpose of the engagement. Diplomats from both countries had met repeatedly in recent months to try to negotiate over the future of Iran’s nuclear program, but Iran canceled a round after Israel launched strikes against it on June 13, and the two sides have not met since. 特朗普周三还宣布，美伊将于下周举行会谈，但没有提供参与者或会谈目的等细节。最近几个月，两国的外交官曾多次会晤，试图就伊朗核计划的未来进行谈判，但伊朗在以色列6月13日对其发动袭击后取消了当时的一轮会谈，双方再未会面。 Iran is also threatening to stop cooperating with international inspectors, which would limit visibility into the damage done. 伊朗还威胁停止与国际核查人员合作，这将限制对毁伤情况的直观评估。 Yet, the president also downplayed the importance of a diplomatic agreement with Tehran over its nuclear program, expressing confidence that Iran would not pursue a nuclear weapon after the U.S. attacks. 然而，总统也淡化了与德黑兰就其核计划达成外交协议的重要性，表示相信在美国袭击后，伊朗不会寻求发展核武器。 “We may sign an agreement,” he said. “I don’t know. To me, I don’t think it’s that necessary. I mean, they had a war they fought. Now they’re going back to their world. I don’t care if I have an agreement or not.” “协议或许会签，”他说。“我不知道。对我来说，也不是非签不可。我的意思是，他们刚打了一仗。现在要回归正轨了。签不签协议，我根本不在乎。” Iranian officials had indicated a day earlier that they were willing to re-engage in diplomacy. 而伊朗官员前日表示愿重返谈判桌。 But by the end of his trip to the Netherlands, Mr. Trump seemed as focused on proving he has “obliterated” Iran’s sites as he once was on proving he had the largest inauguration crowd. As part of his effort to counter the preliminary intelligence report from the Pentagon, Mr. Trump, during his news conference, read part of a statement from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission. 但到荷兰之行结束时，特朗普似乎像他曾经执着于证明自己拥有最大规模的就职典礼人群一样，专注于证明他已经“彻底摧毁”了伊朗的核设施。为反驳五角大楼的初步评估报告，他在记者会宣读了以色列原子能委员会声明的一部分。 “The devastating U.S. strike on Fordo destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility totally inoperable,” the president said. The statement, which the White House had distributed earlier, did not contain the word “totally,” but Mr. Trump inserted it. “美国对福尔多的毁灭性打击摧毁了该基地的关键基础设施，并使浓缩设施完全无法运行，”总统说。白宫此前分发的声明中没有“totally”（完全）这个词，但特朗普自行加了上去。 周二拍摄的伊朗福尔多铀浓缩设施卫星图像。 Administration officials also denied that Iran had moved its stockpile of 880 pounds of near-bomb-grade fuel from storage areas in the ancient city of Isfahan and at other plants in Iran. Some American intelligence officials say they believe it was moved, and Rafael Mariano Grossi, the secretary general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, part of the United Nations, said Iranian officials had told him the stockpile was going to be moved to avoid threats from Mr. Trump. On Wednesday, he said he did not know its whereabouts. 政府官员还否认伊朗已将其储存在古城伊斯法罕和境内其他工厂的约400公斤近武器级核燃料转移，而联合国的国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·马里亚诺·格罗西表示，伊朗官员曾告诉他，为了避免特朗普的威胁，这些库存将被转移。周三，他说他不知道这些库存的下落。 Moving the stockpile could have left Iran with a hidden supply that it could, with further enrichment, use for weapons. 若进行了转移，伊朗或留下了一批库存，经进一步浓缩后用于核武器的制造。 Mr. Trump said he did know where the supply was. “We think we hit them so hard and so fast they didn’t get to move,” he told reporters, without citing any evidence. “It’s covered with granite, concrete and steel,” he said. 特朗普表示，他确实知道这些库存的下落。“我们认为我们的打击又快又猛，他们没有来得及转移，”他对记者说，但没有拿出任何证据。“被埋在花岗岩、混凝土和钢铁下面了，”他说。 Near the end of his news conference, as Mr. Trump appeared to become increasingly fed up with questions about his own administration’s intelligence, he turned the lectern over to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whose department’s intelligence agency had produced the assessment. After denouncing the news media, Mr. Hegseth did not dispute the accounts of the intelligence report that appeared in The New York Times and CNN, but emphasized that it had been produced with “low confidence.” 记者会尾声，面对媒体就内阁评估情报的连番提问，越来越不耐烦的特朗普将讲台让予国防部长皮特·海格塞斯，正是其麾下情报机构主导了此次评估。在对媒体痛斥一番后，海格塞斯未反驳《纽约时报》与CNN披露的报告内容，但强调该报告仅属“低置信度”研判。 “So if you want to make an assessment of what happened at Fordo, you better get a big shovel and go really deep because Iran’s nuclear program is obliterated,” he said. “所以，如果你想评估福尔多发生了什么，你最好拿一把大铲子，得掘地三尺，因为伊朗的核计划已经被彻底摧毁了，”他说。 The director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, also insisted on Wednesday that the president was correct in saying that Iran’s facilities had been destroyed. She cited “new intelligence” but gave no additional details. Like Mr. Hegseth, she complained about news reports describing the intelligence document. 国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德周三也坚称总统关于伊朗设施已被摧毁的说法是正确的。她提到了“新情报”，却没有提供更多细节。像海格塞斯一样，她也对相关新闻报道予以指责。 Mr. Rubio was the only one who approached the question with specific reference to facilities that Israel and the United States hit, and which would cripple Iran’s ability to make a bomb even if it had sufficient highly enriched uranium secreted away. His argument centered on evidence that the conversion facility had been destroyed, along with a laboratory to make the fuel into uranium metal to make a warhead. 只有鲁比奥结合具体打击目标展开了分析：即便伊朗暗藏高浓铀，美以摧毁的核设施已重创其制造核弹的能力。其核心证据指向转化设施以及一个将燃料转化为铀金属以制造弹头的实验室已被摧毁 Israel reported hitting the facility and an associated laboratory for turning the fuel to metal, and The Times described the hit at the time. Independent analysts say they believe the plant was severely damaged. 以色列军方确认击中该转化设施及配套的燃料铀金属转化实验室，《纽约时报》当时也报道了此次打击。独立分析机构判定，该设施遭严重损毁。 David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。 Tyler Pager是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID PIERSON, KEITH BRADSHER2025年6月26日有人在加州一个临时居住营地使用芬太尼的场景，摄于去年。特朗普政府说，中国在阻止芬太尼进入美国方面做得不够。 Meridith Kohut for The New York Times China has strengthened controls on two chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl, its latest step in addressing an issue that has become tangled in its broader trade dispute with the United States. 中国加强了对两种可用于制造芬太尼的化学品的管控，这是为解决芬太尼问题采取的最新措施，这个问题已与中美更广泛的贸易争端纠缠在一起。 The Trump administration has accused Beijing of not doing enough to stem the flow of fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid, into the United States, where it kills tens of thousands of Americans each year. Earlier this year, the administration cited the issue as it imposed tariffs totaling 20 percent on Chinese goods. 特朗普政府此前指责中国政府没有采取足够措施，阻止芬太尼流入美国。芬太尼是一种强效合成阿片类药物，每年在美国导致数万人死亡。今年早些时候，美国政府以这一问题为由，对中国商品加征了总共20%的关税。 This week, six Chinese government agencies said they had added two chemicals, 4-piperidone and 1-Boc-4-piperidone, to a list of so-called precursor chemicals, or base ingredients, for fentanyl that would be more strictly controlled, according to a joint statement. 据中国六个政府部门本周发布的联合公告，中国已将两种化学品——4-哌啶酮和1-叔丁氧羰基-4-哌啶酮——列入所谓的芬太尼前体（即基本成分）清单，实施严格管制。 The move “demonstrates China’s sincerity in wanting to work with the United States on this issue,” said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington research institute. 此举“表明了中国在芬太尼问题上想与美国合作的诚意”，华盛顿研究机构史汀生中心的中国项目主任孙韵说。 The new restrictions, which take effect on July 20, were announced days after China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, met with David Perdue, the recently appointed U.S. ambassador to China, in Beijing last week to discuss efforts to fight drug trafficking. 新的管理措施将于7月20日生效。在宣布联合公告的几天前，中国公安部部长王小洪曾于上周在北京与新任美国驻华大使庞德伟(David Perdue)就禁毒执法进行了磋商。 The United States has accused Chinese producers of supplying drug cartels with the ingredients to make fentanyl, which the cartels smuggle into the United States. 美国指责中国的化工企业向贩毒集团提供芬太尼的原料，贩毒集团然后将芬太尼走私到美国。 China has maintained, however, that it is not responsible for America’s fentanyl crisis, which it says is rooted in the abuse of prescription painkillers and ineffective regulation in that country. 但中国则一直强调，美国芬太尼危机的根源在于国内滥用处方止痛药和监管不力，责任不在中国。 “We’ve repeatedly made it clear that fentanyl is the United States' problem, not China’s,” Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said on Tuesday. “It’s the United States’ responsibility to solve the issue.” “我们多次表明，芬太尼是美国的问题，不是中国的问题，”中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆周二说。“责任在美国自身。” The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration over fentanyl are still in place, even though overall levies on Chinese goods came down to 55 percent from 145 percent or more in May, after the two countries agreed to a truce in their trade war. 两国同意暂停贸易战后，虽然对所有中国商品加征的最低145%的关税已在今年5月降至55%，但特朗普政府仍在收取与芬太尼问题有关的关税。 Chinese restrictions on its exports of crucial minerals recently threatened to derail that détente, but President Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, agreed to revive trade talks during a call this month. The two leaders also discussed the possibility of meeting in China. 中国前不久对关键矿产的出口实施限制措施，让缓和贸易战的进程受到威胁，但特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平已在本月通了电话，同意重启贸易谈判。两国领导人还讨论了在中国见面的可能性。 Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that China would like to host Mr. Trump, but that it depended on progress made on disputes over trade and issues like fentanyl. 上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯说，虽然中国愿意欢迎特朗普来访，但那取决于两国在贸易争端以及芬太尼等问题上所取得的进展。 Another option, Mr. Wu said, could be for the two leaders to meet on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Seoul, which starts in late October. Mr. Xi usually attends the summit, and American presidents have typically done so, but neither leader has said whether he will participate in this one. 吴心伯表示，另一个可能性是两国领导人在今年10月底在首尔举行亚太经合组织年度峰会期间举行会晤。虽然习近平通常出席峰会，美国总统也历来如此，但两国领导人尚未表态是否参加今年的峰会。 Berry Wang对本文有研究贡献。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
TIFFANY HSU2025年6月25日 America’s rivals celebrated as the Trump administration set out to dismantle its global influence and information infrastructure, including the media outlets that had helped market the United States as the world’s moral and cultural authority. 特朗普政府着手拆除美国的全球影响力和信息基础设施，包括那些曾帮助将美国塑造为全球道德和文化权威的媒体机构，美国的竞争对手对此拍手称快。 The editor in chief of RT, the Kremlin-backed news network, crowed about President Trump’s “awesome decision” to shut down Voice of America, the federally funded network that reports in countries with limited press freedom. “Today is a holiday for me and my colleagues!” 克里姆林宫支持的新闻媒体“今日俄罗斯”的主编对特朗普总统关闭美国之音这个“了不起的决定”赞不绝口，称“今天是我和同事们的节日”。美国之音是一家由联邦政府资助的新闻机构，在新闻自由受限的国家进行报道。 Hu Xijin, a former editor in chief of China’s state-run outlet Global Times, wrote that the paralysis of Voice of America and Radio Free Asia was “really gratifying” and, he hoped, “irreversible.” A top aide to Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary posted that he “couldn’t be happier” about the administration’s move in February to gut the agency that distributed foreign media funding. Officials in Cambodia and Cuba also welcomed the cuts. 中国官方媒体《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进写道，美国之音和自由亚洲电台的瘫痪“大快人心”，他希望这个局面“不可逆”。匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托的一名高级助手发帖称，美国政府今年2月取缔了负责向外国媒体提供资金的机构，这让他“非常高兴”。柬埔寨和古巴的官员也对削减开支表示欢迎。 In the months since, China, Russia and other U.S. rivals have moved to commandeer the communications space abandoned by the Americans. They have pumped more money into their own global media endeavors, expanded social outreach programs abroad and cranked up the volume when publicizing popular cultural exports. 在那之后的几个月里，中国、俄罗斯和其他美国的竞争对手迅速抢占美国人拱手让出的传播空间。它们不仅大幅增加各自全球媒体业务的投入，扩大在海外的社会推广项目，还在本国流行文化出口方面加大了扶持力度。 Foreign policy experts say the Trump administration is not just losing its grip on the global megaphone but handing it off to its eager adversaries. In doing so, they said, the United States is relinquishing its primacy as a global influencer and neglecting its defenses against the damaging narratives and disinformation that could fill the vacuum. 外交政策专家指出，特朗普政府不仅正在失去全球话语的主导权，还把它拱手让给虎视眈眈的对手。专家认为，美国此举不仅放弃了自己作为全球影响力首要大国的地位，更是忽视了对可能趁虚而入填补真空的破坏性叙事和虚假信息的防御。 “What we’re doing, in a sense, is playing into their hands,” said Catherine Luther, a professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, who has studied Russian influence. “These states tend to be the leaders in creating the playbook for other countries to use.” “从某种意义上说，我们的所作所为正中它们下怀，”研究俄罗斯影响力的田纳西大学诺克斯维尔分校教授凯瑟琳·路德说。“这些国家往往是制定行动手册供其他国家使用的领导者。” The White House did not respond to a request for comment. 白宫没有回应置评请求。 The United States was a pioneer of global message management, carefully cultivating its international reputation using movies, music, news, and other totems of culture and media to project aspirational American appeal. Supporting communications — through programs like Voice of America and grants for local independent outlets — has always been a key component of that so-called soft power. 美国曾是全球信息管理的先驱，它利用电影、音乐、新闻和其他文化媒体图腾，精心塑造国际形象，展现美国的魅力。通过美国之音这样的项目和对本地独立媒体的资助支持传播，一直是所谓软实力的关键组成部分。 But since January, the Trump administration has shut down a foreign influence task force at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, closed a State Department office that tracked and countered global disinformation, and crippled other teams that helped safeguard the American brand from overseas falsehoods and malign propaganda campaigns. A former Trump speechwriter who is currently acting as the under secretary for public diplomacy, a role intended to engage and understand foreign audiences, once posted that “competent white men must be in charge if you want things to work.” 但自今年1月以来，特朗普政府解散了联邦调查局的一个外国影响力特别工作组，关闭了国务院一个追踪和反击全球虚假信息的办公室，并削弱了其他帮助保护美国的品牌不受海外谎言和恶意宣传活动影响的团队。特朗普的一名前演讲稿撰写人目前担任负责公共外交的副国务卿，其职责是接触和理解外国受众，他发帖称，“若想成事，就必须让有能力的白人来负责。” The agency overseeing government-funded media outlets like the Radio Free stations and Voice of America, which reached hundreds of millions of people internationally each week, was gutted. A White House press officer reacted on X with a post listing “goodbye” in 20 languages. (A federal appeals court in Washington ruled last month that the Trump administration could continue for now to withhold funding from the stations, which have scaled back their operations. Instead, experts said, the Trump administration is focusing on other expressions of might, such as economic pressure and military force.) 负责管理自由电台和美国之音等政府资助媒体的机构被裁撤，这些媒体每周在全球的受众达数亿人。一名白宫新闻官员在X上发贴，用20种语言写下“再见”作为回应。（华盛顿的一家联邦上诉法院上个月裁定，特朗普政府目前可以继续暂停对这些电台的资助，目前相关机构已经缩减了运营规模。专家们表示，特朗普政府正把重点转向其他表现实力的方式上，比如经济压力和军事力量。） “The soft power suicide of the U.S. will be incomprehensible to future historians who will be dumbfounded in their attempts to explain why the global leader voluntarily wrecked one of its greatest national assets,” wrote Jamie Shea, a British former official at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and current senior fellow at Friends of Europe, a research institution. 北大西洋公约组织前英国官员、现在智库“欧洲之友”担任高级研究员的杰米·谢伊写道：“未来的历史学家将无法理解美国的软实力自杀，他们在试图解释这个全球领导者为何自愿破坏其最大的国家资产之一时，将会感到茫然。” Many global powers now see a better chance to “wage friendship,” as one researcher said, without competition from the United States. 正如一位研究人员所说，随着美国的退出，许多全球大国正迎来“友谊攻势”的良机。 Sputnik, a Kremlin-backed media outlet, opened an office in Ethiopia in February and said it was planning more in South Africa and possibly Tanzania. Turkey’s national public broadcaster, TRT, delivers online news in dozens of languages and started a broadcast channel in Somalia this spring. 克里姆林宫支持的俄罗斯卫星通讯社今年2月在埃塞俄比亚开设了办事处，并计划在南非甚至有可能在坦桑尼亚开办事处。土耳其国家公共广播公司TRT以数十种语言提供在线新闻，并于今年春天在索马里开设了一个广播频道。 Fahrettin Altun, Turkey’s head of communications, said last month that the broadcaster contributed to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vision of a “Century of Turkey” by “being an alternative voice to the global media order” and pledged to help expand TRT’s “sphere of influence.” 土耳其通讯部门主管法赫列廷·阿尔顿上月表示，土耳其广播公司通过“成为全球媒体秩序的另一种声音”，为总统埃尔多安的“土耳其世纪”愿景做出了贡献，并承诺帮助扩大土耳其广播公司的“全球影响范围”。 In China, where global narrative domination has long been a public goal, the state news agency Xinhua said it had met with several Western media outlets in recent years to discuss distribution deals. China Daily, a state-run newspaper, increased its U.S. distribution budget in each of the past three years. 在中国，长期以来，主导全球叙事一直是公开的目标。国家通讯社新华社表示，近年来，它已与多家西方媒体会面，讨论内容发行协议。中国官方报纸《中国日报》在过去三年里，每年都提高了在美国的发行预算。 Chinese propaganda and disinformation campaigns have had spotty success resonating with foreign audiences. But Beijing has begun to recognize that the government is often not the most effective face for a charm offensive, said Shaoyu Yuan, a research fellow at Rutgers University’s Division of Global Affairs. Instead, global good will is frequently generated by social media influencers and private entrepreneurs, then amplified by state media and officials, he said. (The Chinese have faced some pushback on this front, as lawmakers in Washington take aim at imports such as TikTok, a popular video app, and DeepSeek, a chatbot app.) 中国的宣传和虚假信息运动在打动海外受众方面成效参差不齐。但罗格斯大学全球事务部研究员袁绍御说，北京已经开始认识到，在魅力攻势中，政府往往不是最有效的代言人。他说，相反，国际好感度往往是由社交媒体网红和私营企业家制造的，然后由国家媒体和官员加以放大传播。（中国在这方面遇到了一些阻力，华盛顿的立法者把矛头对准了流行视频应用TikTok和聊天机器人应用DeepSeek等来自中国的产品。） Last year, Chinese state media lauded the video game Black Myth: Wukong, which is based on a classic Chinese novel, as a challenger to an industry dominated by American companies. Ne Zha 2, a record-smashing Chinese game about a mythological demon child, was hailed by the government as “a new window for the world to see China.” 去年，中国官方媒体称赞根据中国古典小说改编的电子游戏《黑神话：悟空》对美国公司主导的游戏行业构成了挑战。破纪录的中国电影《哪吒2》讲述了一个神话中的魔童故事，被政府誉为“世界了解中国的新窗口”。 Chinese apps streaming short soap operas are causing a stir in Hollywood, giving the country a way to reach new audiences through channels they created themselves, rather than through foreign media outlets, according to state media. 据中国官方媒体报道，播放肥皂剧短视频的中国应用程序在好莱坞引起了轰动，这为中国提供了通过自创渠道而不是外国媒体接触新受众的途径。 “The U.S. has definitely turned inward,” Dr. Yuan said. “It’s created a very big gap in global influence, and in China, both official and private groups have noticed this and are beginning to adjust their strategies accordingly.” “美国确实转向了内顾战略，”袁绍御说。“这造成了全球影响力的巨大缺口，在中国，官方和民间团体都注意到了这一点，并开始相应地调整自己的战略。” Ideals once championed by Americans are being propped up by other governments. In a gauge of trust among Southeast Asians that a Singaporean research organization released this spring, the United States fell to third place behind the European Union and Japan. Last month, the European Union promised $6.2 million in emergency support for Radio Free Europe. The British government said this year that it was creating a soft-power council to help elevate Britain’s global standing. 曾经由美国人倡导的价值理念正被其他国家政府接棒。新加坡一家研究机构今年春天发布的东南亚人信任度调查中，美国跌至第三位，落后于欧盟和日本。上个月，欧盟承诺向自由欧洲电台提供620万美元的紧急援助。英国政府今年也表示，它正在创建一个软实力委员会，以帮助提升英国的全球地位。 Members of the British Parliament sought extended funding for the BBC World Service this year, explaining that the broadcaster “plays an indispensable role in the fight against misinformation” and that “where services have been cut, we have seen other countries rush in to fill the space.” A poll commissioned by the BBC and conducted in 18 countries this past winter found that people who watched RT or CGTN, a Chinese state news outlet, were far more likely to say they viewed China or Russia favorably (and to hold nondemocratic views). 英国议会成员今年寻求增加对BBC国际频道的拨款，他们解释说，BBC“在打击虚假信息方面发挥着不可或缺的作用”，而且“在服务被削减的地方，我们看到其他国家争相填补空缺”。去年冬天，BBC委托在18个国家进行的一项民意调查发现，观看RT或中国官方新闻媒体CGTN的人更有可能对中国或俄罗斯有好感（并更倾向于认同非民主观点）。 Now, there are signs that the Trump team may be reconsidering its approach. 现在，有迹象表明，特朗普团队可能正在酝酿政策转向。 After Israel attacked Iran this month, dozens of Voice of America workers who had been put on leave were abruptly called back to reactivate the Voice of America news broadcast in Persian, which is the most common language spoken in Iran. 本月以色列袭击伊朗后，数十名被停职的美国之音工作人员突然被召回，重新启动波斯语的美国之音新闻广播。波斯语是伊朗最常用的语言。 Over the following days, they produced dozens of videos and social media posts about the conflict, as well as several stories detailing the American role in possible peace talks and Mr. Trump’s timeline for considering military intervention. 接下来的几天里，他们制作了数十个关于这场冲突的视频和社交媒体帖子，还发表了几篇报道，详细介绍了美国在可能的和平谈判中扮演的角色，以及特朗普考虑军事干预的时间表。 Tiffany Hsu报道信息生态系统，包括外国影响、政治言论和虚假信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
JULIAN E. BARNES, HELENE COOPER, ERIC SCHMITT, RONEN BERGMAN, MAGGIE HABERMAN, JONATHAN SWAN2025年6月25日周日的新闻发布会上，记者纷纷拍摄美国的伊朗核设施轰炸行动——“午夜之锤”——的图示。 Alex Brandon/Associated Press A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran set back the country’s nuclear program by only a few months, according to officials familiar with the findings. 据几名知情官员透露，美国一份初步的机密报告显示，美国对伊朗三处核设施的轰炸仅使该国核计划进度倒退数月。 The strikes sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, the officials said the early findings concluded. 这些官员表示，初步调查结果显示，打击行动封堵了其中两处设施的入口，但未摧毁其地下建筑。 Before the attack, U.S. intelligence agencies had said that if Iran tried to rush to making a bomb, it would take about three months. After the U.S. bombing run and days of attacks by the Israeli Air Force, the report by the Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that the program had been delayed, but by less than six months. 袭击前，美国情报机构曾表示，如果伊朗试图加速制造核弹，大约需要耗时三个月。在美国进行轰炸行动以及以色列空军进行数天打击之后，国防情报局的报告估计，该计划被推迟了，但延迟不到六个月。 The report also said that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, which destroyed little of the nuclear material. Iran may have moved some of that to secret locations. 报告还称，伊朗在袭击前已经将大部分的浓缩铀转移，袭击摧毁的核原料极少。伊朗可能已将其中一部分原料转移到了秘密地点。 Some Israeli officials said they also believed that the Iranian government had maintained small covert enrichment facilities so it could continue its nuclear program in the event of an attack on the larger facilities. 一些以色列官员表示，他们也认为伊朗政府还保留着小型的秘密浓缩设施，以便在大型设施遭到攻击后还能继续推进核计划。 Other officials noted that the report found that the three nuclear sites — Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan — had suffered moderate to severe damage, with the facility at Natanz damaged the most. It is not clear whether the Iranians will try to rebuild the programs. 另有官员指出，该报告发现福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕这三处核设施遭受了中度到重度损坏，其中纳坦兹设施受损最严重。目前尚不清楚伊朗是否会尝试重建这些项目。 Former officials said that if Iran tried to quickly develop a bomb, it would be a relatively small and crude device. A miniaturized warhead would be far more difficult to produce, and the extent of damage to that more advanced research is not clear. 前官员表示，如果伊朗想迅速造出一枚核弹的话，那将是一个相对简陋的小装置。小型化弹头的技术难度要大得多，目前尚不清楚这种更先进的研究受到了多大程度的破坏。 Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots. 现任和前任军事官员在袭击前曾警告称，摧毁福尔多设施需要采用多轮打击，对同一地点进行连续数天甚至数周的轰炸，因为它深藏于山体下70多米的深处。 American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs — often referred to as “bunker busters” — on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute. 美军战机确于周六至少两次击中相同目标。据美国企业研究所中东项目主管布莱恩·卡特透露，B-2轰炸机向福尔多投下12枚GBU-57巨型钻地弹——常被称为“地堡克星”——现场可见六个地面入口弹坑。 But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job. 但多名军事爆破专家认为，完成摧毁需多日的打击行动。 The initial damage assessment suggests that President Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated” was overstated. Congress had been set to be briefed on the strike on Tuesday, and lawmakers were expected to ask about the findings, but the session was postponed. Senators are now set be briefed on Thursday, and House members on Friday. 初步毁伤评估表明，特朗普总统关于伊朗核设施遭“彻底摧毁”的说法言过其实。国会原定于周二听取关于此次袭击的简报，议员们预计会询问调查结果，但简报会因故推迟。参议院现定于周四听取简报，众议院则安排在周五。 Since the strikes, Mr. Trump has complained to advisers repeatedly about news reports that have questioned how much damage was done, said people with knowledge of the comments. He has also closely watched the public statements of other officials when they are asked about the damage to the nuclear facilities, they said. 据知情人士透露，空袭后，特朗普反复向顾问抱怨质疑打击效果的新闻报道。他们表示，总统还密切关注其他官员被问及伊朗核设施毁伤情况时的公开表态。 In a statement on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated Mr. Trump’s early assessment. 周二，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在一份声明中重申了特朗普早前的判断。 “Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” he said. “Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly.” “根据我们掌握的全部情报——我已经全部看过，轰炸行动彻底摧毁了伊朗制造核武的能力。我们的巨型炸弹精准命中每处目标点，效果完美。” Officials cautioned that the five-page classified report was only an initial assessment, and that others would follow as more information was collected and as Iran examined the three sites. One official said that the reports people in the administration had been shown were “mixed” but that more assessments were yet to be done. 官员们强调，这份五页的机密报告仅仅是一份初步评估，随着更多信息的收集以及伊朗对这三处地点进行检查，后续还会有更新。一位官员表示，政府内部人士所看到的报告“结论不一”，不过更多评估仍在进行中。 But the Defense Intelligence Agency report indicates that the sites were not damaged as much as some administration officials had hoped, and that Iran retains control of almost all of its nuclear material, meaning if it decides to make a nuclear weapon it might still be able to do so relatively quickly. 但国防情报局的报告指出，这些地点受损程度未达部分政府官员预期，而且伊朗仍留有几乎所有的核材料，这意味着如果它决定制造核武器，仍然能够相对迅速地做到。 Officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity because the findings of the report remain classified. 因报告内容涉密，本文受访官员均要求匿名。 The White House took issue with the assessment. Karoline Leavitt, a White House spokeswoman, said its findings were “flat-out wrong.” 白宫对此评估提出异议。白宫发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，其结论“完全错误”。 “The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program,” she said in a statement. “Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.” “泄露所谓评估报告显然意在贬低特朗普总统，诋毁执行完美任务摧毁伊朗核计划的英勇飞行员，”她在声明中说。“所有人都知道，当你将14枚3万磅炸弹精确投放到目标上时会发生什么：彻底摧毁。” Elements of the intelligence report were reported earlier by CNN. CNN此前已对这份情报报告的部分内容进行了报道。 The strikes badly damaged the electrical system at Fordo, officials said. It is not clear how long it will take Iran to gain access to the underground buildings, repair the electrical systems and reinstall equipment that was moved. 官员们表示，这些打击行动严重损坏了福尔多的电力系统。目前尚不清楚伊朗需要多长时间才能重新进入地下建筑、修复电力系统并重新安装已转移的设备。 Maxar Technologies公司提供的一张福尔多核设施的卫星图像。 There is no question that the bombing campaign “badly, badly damaged” the three sites, Mr. Carter said. 毫无疑问，这次轰炸行动“极其严重地损坏了”这三处设施，卡特说。 But initial Israeli damage assessments have also raised questions about the effectiveness of the strikes. Israeli defense officials said they had also collected evidence that the underground facilities at Fordo were not destroyed. 但以色列初步的评估结果，同样也对打击行动的效果提出了质疑。以国防官员表示，他们收集的证据表明，福尔多地下设施并未被摧毁。 Despite claims of the sites’ obliteration by Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been more careful in describing the attack’s effects. 尽管特朗普和海格塞斯声称这些地点被彻底摧毁，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在描述袭击效果时则相对谨慎。 “This operation was designed to severely degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure,” General Caine said that at the Sunday news conference. 他在周日记者会上表示：“这次行动旨在严重破坏伊朗的核武器基础设施。” The final battle damage assessment for the military operation against Iran, General Caine said on Sunday, standing next to Mr. Hegseth, was still to come. He said the initial assessment showed that all three sites “sustained severe damage and destruction.” 凯恩周日站在海格塞斯旁边表示，此次军事行动的毁伤效果尚未做出最终评估。他说，初步评估显示，所有三个地点均遭受“严重破坏和摧毁”。 General Caine added that it was “way too early” to assess how much of Iran’s nuclear program remained. 凯恩还表示，评估伊朗核计划保留下来多少还“为时过早”。 Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the former commander of Central Command, said in an interview, that he had “a lot of confidence in the weapons systems used.” But he added: “I’m not surprised that elements survived. That’s why you do battle damage assessments, because everything can go as planned but there are still other factors.” 前中央司令部司令约瑟夫·沃特尔将军受访时表示，他对“所用武器系统非常有信心。”不过，他也说：“有设施得以幸存也不意外。这正是为什么要开展评估的原因，即便一切按计划进行，仍存在其他变量因素。” At a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Democrats also struck a more cautionary note. 在周二的参议院听证会上，民主党人也持更谨慎的态度。 “We still await final battle damage assessments,” said Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the senior Democrat on the Armed Services Committee. 罗得岛州参议员、军事委员会的资深民主党人杰克·里德说：“我们仍在等待最终的评估。” Representatives of the Defense Intelligence Agency did not respond to requests for comment. 国防情报局的代表未回应置评请求。 David E. Sanger对本文有报道贡献。 Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。 Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。 Ronen Bergman是《纽约时报杂志》记者，常驻特拉维夫。 Maggie Haberman是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。 Jonathan Swan是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
CHOE SANG-HUN2025年6月25日韩国退伍军人在首尔的中国大使馆附近举行抗议，要求中国政府拆除在黄海的共同水域安装的钢结构设施，摄于今年4月。 Kim Jae-Hwan /SOPA Images, via Sipa USA, via Associated Press In recent years, China has towed a decommissioned offshore oil-drilling rig and two giant octagonal steel cages into the sea between China and South Korea, saying that the structures were used as deep-sea fish farms in shared waters. But South Koreans fear that they are more than that and could be used to expand China’s military influence. 最近几年里，中国将一个退役的海上石油钻井平台和两个巨大的八角形钢笼拖到中韩之间的海域，声称这些设施用于在共享水域建深海养鱼场。但韩国人担心用途不止于此，可能被用来扩大中国的军事影响力。 South Korea’s National Assembly formally took issue with the Chinese structures on Monday when its ocean and fisheries committee condemned them as “a threat to maritime safety,” in a resolution adopted with bipartisan support. Those fears were bolstered on Tuesday by a report from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. 韩国国会周一正式对这些设施提出异议，国会的海洋水产委员会通过了一项得到两党支持的决议，谴责它们“对海上安全构成威胁”。总部设在华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心周二发布的一份报告进一步佐证了这种担忧。 “While available information suggests that the platforms are genuinely focused on aquaculture, concerns that the platforms may be dual-use are not unfounded, given China’s track record in the South China Sea,” said the report, which used satellite imagery and other data to track the installations. Dual-use refers to a second potential use for military purposes. “虽然现有信息表明这些平台确实主要用于水产养殖，但考虑到中国在南中国海的过往记录，对这些平台可能具有双重用途的担忧并非毫无根据，”该报告写道。报告使用了卫星图像和其他数据来追踪这些设施，双重用途指的是它们具有潜在的军事用途。 “Even without further expansion, the platforms are likely already collecting data that could have value for undersea navigation and detection,” the report said. “即使不进一步扩大，这些平台也可能已经在收集对海底导航和探测有价值的数据，”该报告写道。 South Koreans see striking parallels between the Chinese installations and what Beijing has done in the South China Sea. China initially built artificial islands there for civilian purposes, but they were gradually transformed into military outposts, leading to territorial disputes with countries including the Philippines and Vietnam. 在韩国人看来，中国的这些设施与它在南中国海的所作所为存在惊人的相似之处。中国在那里先是建了民用的人工岛，后来逐渐将这些岛改造为军事前哨，进而引发了与菲律宾、越南等国的领土争端。 The tensions creeping up around the Chinese platforms in the Yellow Sea — called the West Sea by Koreans — will likely become one of the first challenges faced by the government of President Lee Jae Myung, who took office this month. Mr. Lee has vowed to improve ties with Beijing while at the same time promising to strengthen his country’s alliance with Washington. Mr. Lee hopes to meet China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, in November. 围绕中国在黄海（韩国人称之为西海）平台的紧张局势不断升级，很可能成为本月上任的李在明总统政府所面临的首批挑战。李在明已誓言要改善与中国的关系，同时也承诺加强韩美联盟。李在明希望在今年11月韩国庆州举行亚太经合组织峰会期间与中国最高领导人习近平见面。 When the two countries held talks in April on oceanic cooperation, South Korean officials expressed their “deep concern” about the Chinese structures, warning that they would not allow them to undermine Seoul’s rights, the South Korean Foreign Ministry said. But China insisted that the structures were nothing but deep-sea salmon farms. Both sides agreed to continue dialogue to resolve the dispute. 韩国外交部称，两国曾在今年4月就海洋合作问题举行会谈，韩国官员当时曾对中国的这些设施表示了“深切关注”，并警告，他们不会允许这些设施损害韩国的权利。但中国坚称相关设施只用于深海鲑鱼养殖场。双方同意继续对话以解决争端。 China’s growing assertiveness in the Yellow Sea comes at the same time Beijing has called for bilateral relations with Seoul to reach a “higher level” after Mr. Lee was sworn in as president. 中国在黄海日益强硬的同时，北京方面也呼吁李在明总统上任后让中韩双边关系“向更高水平迈进”。 That reflects Beijing’s carrot and stick approach with its neighbors. On one hand, it hopes to warm ties by offering Seoul economic inducements. On the other, China considers its dominance of regional waters a vital strategic interest, one that it feels it can pursue because of its military strength. 这反映了中国政府对邻国的“胡萝卜加大棒”政策。一方面，中国希望通过向韩国提供经济利益来改善两国关系；另一方面，中国认为本国在东亚水域的主导地位对其战略利益至关重要，中国觉得自己有能力凭借军事实力来追求这个目标。 In recent years, South Korea has become increasingly concerned about China’s military activities near the Korean Peninsula, including a growing number of Chinese warplanes flying near its airspace. In May, China’s newest and most-advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, conducted fighter jet drills in the Yellow Sea. China declared no-sail zones there while the drills were underway. 近年来，韩国已越来越担心中国在朝鲜半岛附近的军事活动，包括中国战机在离韩国领空不远的空域飞行频次越来越高。今年5月，中国最新、最先进的航母福建舰曾在黄海进行战斗机演习。演习期间，中国宣布该水域为禁航区。 “If China uses its structures in the West Sea for military purposes like monitoring, surveillance and disrupting sea routes and does so repeatedly and in an escalating scale, they will eventually threaten our jurisdiction in the West Sea,” said Chung Min-jeong, an analyst at the National Assembly Research Service. “South Korea, the United States and Japan will need to cooperate if China uses the West Sea structures to help blockade Taiwan.” “如果中国把它在西海（即黄海）的设施用于军事目的，比如监视、侦察以及扰乱海上航线，而且反复这样做，且规模不断扩大的话，最终将威胁我国在西海的管辖权，”韩国国会研究局的分析师郑珉正（音）说。“如果中国使用这些西海设施帮助封锁台湾的话，韩国、美国和日本将需要彼此合作。” China installed its aquaculture structures inside the so-called Provisional Measures Zone, or PMZ, which was created by South Korea and China through a bilateral agreement in 2001 to manage their overlapping exclusive economic zone, or EEZ, claims in the Yellow Sea. The agreement allows fishing activities from both sides but does not mention aquaculture, “leaving an ambiguity that will make it difficult for Seoul to convince Beijing to remove the platforms,” according to the C.S.I.S. report. 中国将水产养殖设施部署在所谓的暂定措施水域（简称PMZ）。这是韩中两国在2001年通过一个双边协议设立的，旨在管理双方在黄海主张的专属经济区存在重叠的问题。协议允许两国在该区开展渔业捕捞活动，但没有明确涵盖水产养殖，“这种不明确将使韩国政府难以说服中国政府将这些平台挪走，”战略与国际研究中心的报告写道。 The first floating fish-farm cage — the Shen Lan 1, which is 200 feet in diameter — was installed in 2018, and the larger Shan Lan 2 was added last year. The former oil-drilling rig was moved there in 2022, repurposed into a central operations hub. 直径近60米的第一个浮动鱼塘“深蓝1号”是2018年安装的，去年又安装了一个更大的浮动鱼塘“深蓝2号”。退役的海上石油钻井平台是在2022年拖到那里的，已被改建为一个中央作业枢纽。 Tensions flared in February when a South Korean ocean survey vessel attempted an on-site investigation, only to be forcibly blocked by Chinese coast guard ships and civilian vessels. South Korea also deployed patrol ships in the two-hour standoff. 今年2月，韩国一艘海洋调查船试图进入现场调查时，曾受到中国海警船和民用船只的强行阻挡，导致紧张局势骤然升级。韩国在这次持续了两个小时的对峙中还派出了巡逻船。 In a report this month, South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper cited satellite imagery that it said showed China remodeling several retired oil rigs for use as offshore support facilities for fish farms. 韩国的《朝鲜日报》本月曾报道称，卫星图像显示中国正在将几个退役的海上石油钻井平台改造为用于鱼类养殖场的海上辅助设施。 In their resolution adopted on Monday, South Korean lawmakers proposed that if China does not remove its facilities, South Korea should take “proportional” countermeasures, such as installing its own aquaculture facilities in the area and building a survey ship to increase monitoring of Chinese activities in the sea. 韩国议员在周一通过的决议中提出，如果中国不拆除这些设施的话，韩国应采取“相应”的对等措施，例如在该水域安装自己的水产养殖设施，以及为加强追踪中国在该海域的活动建造一艘调查船。 Berry Wang自香港对本文有报道贡献。 Choe Sang-Hun是时报驻首尔首席记者，报道韩国和朝鲜新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
FARNAZ FASSIHI, ADAM RASGON, ERIC SCHMITT, MICHAEL LEVENSON2025年6月24日伊朗周一袭击卡塔尔乌代德空军基地，一枚导弹被拦截。 Yousef Masoud for The New York Times Update: Iranian state television announced a cease-fire with Israel early Tuesday. 最新消息：伊朗国家电视台于周二凌晨宣布与以色列停火。 Iran fired missiles at a major United States military base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the American attack on three Iranian nuclear sites this past weekend. But President Trump, saying that Iran had given advance warning of the strike, immediately thanked Tehran for exercising restraint and said it was “time for peace.” 周一，伊朗向美国在卡塔尔的一个主要军事基地发射导弹，以报复美国上周末对伊朗三处核设施的袭击。但特朗普总统表示，伊朗提前发出了袭击的警告，他立即感谢德黑兰保持克制，并表示现在“是和平的时候了”。 Later, he announced on social media that Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease-fire after more than a week of tit-for-tat missile strikes and a weekend attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by American bombers and cruise missiles. 随后，他在社交媒体上宣布，在超过一周针锋相对的导弹袭击，以及美国轰炸机和巡航导弹在周末对伊朗核设施的袭击之后，以色列和伊朗已同意停火。 There was no immediate confirmation of a truce from Israel or Iran. 以伊双方均未立即确认停火。 Iran launched 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday, but they caused no casualties, 13 were intercepted, and one was allowed to land because, Mr. Trump said, it was headed in a “nonthreatening direction.” The strike’s limited scale raised hopes that the Middle East region could avoid a wider conflagration. 伊朗周一向卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发射了14枚导弹，但没有造成人员伤亡，其中13枚被拦截，还有一枚未被拦截，特朗普说，因为它飞向了“不构成威胁的方向”。此次空袭的规模有限，让人们认为中东地区有望避免更大范围冲突。 Mr. Trump, who appeared to be looking for an off-ramp from the conflict, described Iran’s barrage in a series of social media posts as “a very weak response” and said he hoped “they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system.’” 特朗普似乎正在寻找摆脱这场冲突的方式，他在一系列社交媒体帖子中称伊朗的密集攻击是“非常微弱的回应”，并表示他希望“他们已经发泄完了情绪”。 “I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice,” he added, “which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.” “我要感谢伊朗提前通知我们，”他还说，“这使得没有人丧生，没有人受伤。也许伊朗现在可以着手实现该地区的和平与和谐，我将热情地鼓励以色列也这样做。” Writing in all-caps, he ended his posts: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!” 他用大写字母结尾：“祝贺世界，是和平的时候了！” The Iranian strike came after the United States sent a squadron of B-2 stealth bombers on Sunday to unleash 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear site, Fordo, which is buried in the side of a mountain. The United States also used American submarines to launch 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. American officials said the attack severely damaged, but did not destroy, the Iranian nuclear sites. 在伊朗发动袭击之前，美国于周日派出了一个B-2隐形轰炸机中队，向伊朗戒备森严、埋藏在山体里的福尔多核设施发射了约13.6吨重的“地堡炸弹”。美国还用潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕的核设施发射了30枚战斧巡航导弹。美国官员表示，这次袭击严重破坏了伊朗的核设施，但未将其完全摧毁。 As the world braced for the Iranian response, citizens in the region were warned to shelter in place. Qatar announced that it had closed its airspace before the missiles flew. Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates did the same after the attack. The closures disrupted flights into and out of Doha and Dubai, two major hubs of international air travel. 全世界都在为伊朗的反应做准备，该地区的民众被警告就地避难。卡塔尔宣布，在导弹发射前，它就已经关闭了领空。袭击发生后，巴林、伊拉克、科威特和阿拉伯联合酋长国也采取了同样的行动。机场关闭扰乱了进出多哈和迪拜这两个主要国际航空枢纽的航班。 A spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, Majed Al Ansari, called Iran’s strike a “flagrant violation” of Qatar’s sovereignty. Qatar and the United States said their forces had shot down the Iranian missiles. 卡塔尔外交部发言人马吉德·安萨里称伊朗的袭击是对卡塔尔主权的“公然侵犯”。卡塔尔和美国表示，他们的军队击落了伊朗的导弹。 周一，德黑兰街头一辆被烧毁的救护车。 The Pentagon said there were no reports of casualties after Al Udeid Air Base was attacked by short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles. It is the largest American military installation in the Middle East and the forward headquarters for the U.S. Central Command. It has 10,000 military and civilian personnel and is equipped with air defenses that had been on high alert in anticipation of the Iranian attack. 五角大楼表示，乌代德空军基地遭到短程和中程弹道导弹袭击后，没有人员伤亡报告。它是美国在中东最大的军事设施，也是美国中央司令部的前沿总部。它拥有1万名军事和文职人员，并配有防空系统，为应对伊朗可能的袭击，这些系统进入了高度戒备的状态。 Three Iranian officials familiar with Tehran’s plans confirmed that Iran had given advance notice of the attack — as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said that Iran needed to strike back at the United States but also wanted to allow both sides a possible off ramp. 三名了解德黑兰计划的伊朗官员证实，伊朗在袭击前发出了预警，以尽量减少伤亡。这些官员们表示，伊朗需要对美国进行反击，但也希望给双方留出可能的退路。 They described the strategy as similar to one Iran used in 2020 when it gave Iraq a heads up before firing ballistic missiles at two American bases in Iraq in the wake of the U.S. assassination of Iran’s top military commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani. 他们称，这一战略与伊朗在2020年使用的战略类似，当时在美国暗杀伊朗最高军事指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼少将之后，伊朗在向伊拉克的两个美国基地发射弹道导弹之前，也曾向伊拉克发出了预警。 An Israeli official also said that Iran had given a warning, though the official did not say through which channel or which country. The Israeli and Iranian officials all spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters. 一名以色列官员也证实，伊朗发出了警告，但该官员没有说明是通过哪个渠道或哪个国家发出的。由于讨论的是敏感的情报，以色列和伊朗官员都要求匿名。 Even though Iranian officials described the strike as calibrated to limit casualties, it had stoked fears that it could draw the United States further into a conflict that could ripple across the region. 尽管伊朗官员称这次袭击是为了限制伤亡，但仍引发外界担忧，它可能会把美国进一步拖入一场可能波及整个地区的冲突。 周一，卡塔尔多哈上空的拦截导弹。 Video verified by The New York Times and filmed from the Pearl Island, a man-made island in Doha, Qatar’s capital, appears to show about a half-dozen missile interceptors flying across the sky to shoot down incoming Iranian missiles on Monday. 经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示，周一在卡塔尔首都多哈的人造岛屿珍珠岛拍摄的画面中，大约六枚导弹拦截器飞过天空，击落来袭的伊朗导弹。 Three residents of Doha said they heard what they believed to be several interceptions of missiles in the distance. Loud booms were heard, and lights were visible as they streaked upward, apparently part of a missile-defense system. Some objects were seen falling to earth. 多哈的三名居民表示，他们听见远处疑似发生多次导弹拦截的动静。巨响传来，可以看到向上飞去的灯光，显然是导弹防御系统的一部分。有人看到一些物体坠落地面。 World leaders had urged all sides to de-escalate the conflict. 世界各国领导人敦促各方缓和冲突。 “I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint, de-escalate and return to the negotiating table,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said on social media Monday. “The spiral of chaos must end.” “我呼吁各方保持最大限度的克制，缓和局势，回到谈判桌，”法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙周一在社交媒体上表示。“混乱的漩涡必须结束。” 周日，以色列内斯齐奥纳，伊朗导弹袭击现场的应急人员。 The volleys of missile and drone attacks began earlier this month, when Israel started bombing Iran in order, it said, to eliminate the threat from Iran’s ballistic missiles and wipe out its nuclear program. Mr. Trump then ordered the United States to join the conflict with the strikes on Sunday. 本月早些时候，以色列对伊朗发起了导弹和无人机攻击，宣称旨在消除伊朗弹道导弹威胁并摧毁核计划。特朗普则于周日下令美军加入冲突实施打击。 Mr. Trump later pronounced the mission a “spectacular” success, saying the United States had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. But the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, gave a more measured description of the mission’s results, saying an initial assessment showed the three nuclear sites had suffered “severe damage.” 特朗普后来宣布这次任务取得了“惊人”的成功，称美国“彻底摧毁了”伊朗的核设施。但参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将对这次任务的结果给出了更为慎重的描述，称初步评估显示，这三个核设施遭受了“严重破坏”。 Senior U.S. officials later conceded they did not know the whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material. 美国高级官员后来承认，他们未能掌握伊朗储存的接近核弹级别的核材料的下落。 Before the Iranian missile strike, the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met in Russia on Monday with President Vladimir V. Putin, a key ally of Tehran. Mr. Putin denounced the American attack on the Iranian nuclear sites as “unfounded and unjustified” but stopped short of offering concrete support. 在伊朗发动导弹袭击之前，该国外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇周一在俄罗斯会见了德黑兰的重要盟友普京总统。普京谴责美国对伊朗核设施的袭击是“毫无根据和不合理的”，但没有提供具体的支持。 俄罗斯国家媒体发布的照片显示，总统普京和其他官员周一在克里姆林宫会见了伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇（前排右一）。 With hopes for diplomacy appearing to dim, the Israeli military continued to pound Iran on Monday, with strikes targeting structures that belong to the Iranian government, according to the office of Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz. 以色列国防部长伊斯雷尔·卡茨的办公室称，由于通过外交手段解决问题的希望似乎很渺茫，以色列军方周一继续打击伊朗，袭击目标是属于伊朗政府的建筑。 The office said the Israeli strikes had targeted Evin prison, on a hilltop in northern Tehran, where hundreds of dissidents and political prisoners are held, along with the headquarters of the Basij, a volunteer force under the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps that has cracked down on protests in Iran. 该办公室称，以色列的袭击目标包括德黑兰北部山顶的埃温监狱，那里关押着数百名异见者和政治犯，还有巴斯基总部，巴斯基是伊斯兰革命卫队旗下的志愿部队，它一直在镇压伊朗的抗议活动。 Evin prison has long been regarded as a symbol of repression, and rights groups and former prisoners say people are routinely tortured and executed there. 埃温监狱长期以来被视为镇压的象征，人权组织和前囚犯说，人们经常在那里受到酷刑折磨和处决。 Aaron Boxerman、Ronen Bergman、Ismaeel Naar、Euan Ward、Jonathan Swan、Michael D. Shear、Vivian Nereim、Anushka Patil、Jeanna Smialek、Matthew Mpoke Bigg、Aurelien Breeden、Anatoly Kurmanaev、Erika Solomon、Aric Toler和Amelia Nierenberg对本文有报道贡献。 Farnaz Fassihi是《纽约时报》联合国分社社长，领导时报对联合国的报道。她也报道伊朗议题，撰写有关中东冲突的文章已超过15年。 Adam Rasgon是时报驻耶路撒冷记者，报道以色列和巴勒斯坦事务。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。 Michael Levenson自纽约为时报报道突发新闻。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
MARK MAZZETTI, JONATHAN SWAN, MAGGIE HABERMAN, ERIC SCHMITT, HELENE COOPER2025年6月24日 Standing at the lectern in the White House briefing room on Thursday afternoon, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, read a message she said came “directly from the president.” 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特上周四下午站在白宫简报室的讲台上宣读了一份她说是“直接来自总统”的声明。 Because of the “substantial chance of negotiations” with Iran that could bring the United States back from the brink of jumping into the war in the Middle East, President Trump’s statement said, he would make a decision about whether or not to strike Iran “within the next two weeks.” 由于存在与伊朗“谈判的很大可能性”，或使美国免于卷入中东战争，总统将“在未来两周里”决定是否对伊朗进行打击。 Mr. Trump had been under pressure from the noninterventionist wing of his party to stay out of the conflict, and was having lunch that day with one of the most outspoken opponents of a bombing campaign, Stephen K. Bannon, fueling speculation that he might hold off. 特朗普一直受到来自共和党内部“不干涉派”让他不要卷入战争的压力。上周四那天，他曾与最直言不讳反对美国轰炸行动的人之一史蒂芬·班农一起共进午餐，引发了人们对特朗普可能会推迟行动的猜测。 It was almost entirely a deception. Mr. Trump had all but made up his mind to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the military preparations were well underway for the complex attack. Less than 30 hours after Ms. Leavitt relayed his statement, he would give the order for an assault that put the United States in the middle of the latest conflict to break out in one of the world’s most volatile regions. 那几乎完全是障眼法。特朗普轰炸伊朗核设施的决心几乎已定，而且军方也已经在为这场复杂的攻击进行充分准备。莱维特转发了特朗普的声明不到30个小时后，特朗普就下令发动打击，让美国卷入了世界上最动荡地区之一最新爆发的一场冲突。 Mr. Trump’s “two weeks” statement was just one aspect of a broader effort at political and military misdirection that took place over eight chaotic days, from the first Israeli strikes against Iran to the moment when a fleet of B-2 stealth bombers took off from Missouri for the first American military strikes inside Iran since that country’s theocratic revolution in 1979. 特朗普的所谓“两周”声明，不过是混乱的八天里（从以色列对伊朗首次发动攻击起，到B-2隐形轰炸机编队从密苏里州升空）更广泛的政治和军事误导行动的冰山一角。这是自1979年伊朗神权革命以来，美国第一次对伊朗境内实施军事打击。 美国上周六向伊朗核设施投掷了炸弹后，记者们在屏幕前观看特朗普总统的全国讲话。 Interviews with administration officials, Trump allies and advisers, Pentagon officials and others familiar with the events show how, during this period, different factions of Mr. Trump’s allies jockeyed to win over a president who was listing in all directions over whether to choose war, diplomacy or some combination. 对政府官员、特朗普的盟友和顾问、五角大楼官员，以及其他知情人士的采访揭示，在这段时间里，特朗普盟友中的不同派系如何运用手段谋取影响总统决策，而此时的他在战争、外交，还是两种手段的某种结合之间犹豫不决。 Outsiders tried to divine which faction was ascendant based on whom Mr. Trump met with at any given time. Mr. Trump seemed almost gleeful in telling reporters that he could make a decision “one second before it’s due, because things change, especially with war.” 局外人试图通过特朗普在某个时间的会晤对象来揣测哪个派系占了上风。特朗普近乎得意地告诉记者，他可以在“到期前的一秒钟”做决定，“因为情况瞬息万变，尤其是战争。” All the while, Mr. Trump was making blustery statements indicating he was about to take the country into the conflict. “Everyone should evacuate Tehran!” he wrote on Monday last week on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns. The following day, he posted that he had not left a meeting of the Group of 7 in Canada to broker a Middle East cease-fire but for something “much bigger.” 与此同时，特朗普持续发表激烈言论，表示他准备让美国卷入冲突。“所有人都应该撤离德黑兰！”他上周一在自创社交媒体平台Truth Social上写道。次日他接着发帖称，提前离开在加拿大召开的七国集团峰会不是为了促成中东停火，而是为了“更大的事情”。 So, he told the world, “Stay tuned!” 于是，他向全球喊话：“拭目以待！” These public pronouncements generated angst at the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command, where military planners began to worry that Mr. Trump was giving Iran too much warning about an impending strike. 这些公开声明在五角大楼和美国中央司令部引发了焦虑，军事规划人员开始担心，特朗普正在给予伊朗过多即将发动打击的预警。 They built their own deception into the attack plan: a second group of B-2 bombers that would leave Missouri and head west over the Pacific Ocean in a way that flight trackers would be able to monitor on Saturday. That left a misimpression, for many observers and presumably Iran, about the timing and path of the attack, which would come from another direction entirely. 他们把障眼法也放进了打击计划中：上周六，让第二组B-2轰炸机从密苏里起飞后向西穿越太平洋，刻意让飞行追踪器捕捉到航迹。这给许多观察人士、想必也包括伊朗对打击的时间和路径留下了一个错误印象，认为打击会来自一个完全不同的方向。 The strike plan was largely in place when Mr. Trump issued his Thursday statement about how he might take up to two weeks to decide to go to war with Iran. Refueling tankers and fighter jets had been moved into position, and the military was working on providing additional protection for American forces stationed in the region. 特朗普上周四发表关于可能需要最多两周时间来决定是否打击伊朗的声明时，打击计划已基本准备就绪。加油机和战斗机已进入状态，军方正加强中东地区驻军的防护部署。 While the “two weeks” statement bought the president more time for last-minute diplomacy, military officials said that ruse and the head fake with the B-2s also had the effect of cleaning up a mess — the telegraphing of the attack — that was partly of the president’s making. 虽然“两周”的声明为总统进行最后一刻的外交努力赢得了更多时间，但军方官员指出，这个障眼法和B-2轰炸机的假动作也起了清理混乱局面的作用——攻击意图提前泄露，而这在一定程度上也是总统自己造成的。 Asked to comment on the details of this article, Ms. Leavitt said the president and his team “successfully accomplished one of the most complex and historic military operations of all time” regarding Iran’s nuclear sites. She added that “many presidents have talked about this, but only President Trump had the guts to do it.” 当被要求对本文细节置评时，莱维特说，总统及其团队“对伊朗核设施成功实施了史上最复杂、最有历史意义的军事行动之一”。她还补充道，“虽然多位前任总统谈论过这件事，但只有特朗普总统有胆魄付诸行动。” A Shifting Tune 调子变了 特朗普今年4月在椭圆形办公室会见了以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。 Mr. Trump had spent the early months of his administration warning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel against a strike on Iran. But by the morning of Friday, June 13, hours after the first Israeli attacks, Mr. Trump had changed his tune. 特朗普在执政的头几个月里曾一直警告以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，不要对伊朗发动攻击。但在6月13日的那个周五上午，也就是以色列开始发起攻击数小时后，特朗普改变了态度。 He marveled to advisers about what he said was a brilliant Israeli military operation, which involved a series of precision strikes that killed key figures in Iran’s military leadership and blasted away strategic weapons sites. Mr. Trump took calls on his cellphone from reporters and began hailing the operation as “excellent” and “very successful” and hinting that he had much more to do with it than people realized. 他在顾问们面前大为赞叹以色列的军事行动，称其太棒了，这些军事行动包括一系列精确打击，击毙了伊朗军方领导层关键人物，摧毁了战略武器基地。特朗普用自己的手机接听了记者打来的电话，开始称赞以色列的行动“非常出色”、“非常成功”，并暗示自己发挥的作用远超外界认知。 Later that day, Mr. Trump asked an ally how the Israeli strikes were “playing.” He said that “everyone” was telling him he needed to get more involved, including potentially dropping 30,000-pound GBU-57 bombs on Fordo, the Iranian uranium-enrichment facility buried underneath a mountain south of Tehran. 当天晚些时候，特朗普问了一名盟友以色列的打击“进展如何”。他说“所有人”都对他说，他需要更多地参与进去，包括向位于德黑兰南部福尔多山下的伊朗铀浓缩设施投掷13.6吨重的GBU-57炸弹的可能性。 The next day, the president told another adviser he was leaning toward using those “bunker buster” bombs on Fordo, while taking pride in both the bomb’s destructive power and the fact that the United States is the only country that has the bomb in its arsenal. The adviser left the conversation convinced that Mr. Trump had already decided to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. 第二天，总统对另一名顾问说，他倾向于对福尔多使用那些“碉堡克星”炸弹，同时为这种炸弹的破坏力以及美国是唯一拥有这种炸弹的国家感到自豪。这次对话让那名顾问对特朗普已做出了轰炸伊朗核设施的决定确信无疑。 At the same time, the president’s team was closely monitoring how their most prominent supporters were reacting on social media and on television to the prospect of the United States joining the war in a more visible way. 与此同时，总统团队密切关注他们最著名的支持者在社交媒体和电视上对美国以更公开的方式参与冲突的前景做何反应。 They paid close attention to the statements of Tucker Carlson, the influential podcaster and former Fox News host, who was vehemently opposed to the United States joining Israel in taking on Iran. Mr. Trump became infuriated by some of Mr. Carlson’s commentary and started complaining about him publicly and privately. 他们密切关注塔克·卡尔森的言论，这名颇有影响力的播客主持和福克斯新闻前主持人强烈反对美国加入以色列打击伊朗的行动。特朗普被卡尔森的一些言论激怒，并开始在公开场合和私下里对他表示不满。 Deliberations among administration officials about a possible American strike on Iran were in full swing by Sunday night, June 15, when Mr. Trump left for Canada for the Group of 7 meeting. Mr. Trump seemed to his advisers to be inching closer to approving a strike, even as he told them that Israel would be foolish to try to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. 到特朗普6月15日启程前往加拿大参加七国集团峰会的那个周日的晚间，政府内部就美国打击伊朗的讨论已白热化。在顾问们看来，特朗普似乎正朝着批准打击伊朗行动的方向靠近，尽管他对顾问们说，如果以色列试图暗杀伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的话，那是愚蠢之举。 Moreover, he said, if the United States were to strike Iran, the goal should be to decimate its nuclear facilities, not to bring down its government. 此外，他还说，如果美国要打击伊朗的话，目标应该是摧毁伊朗的核设施，而不是颠覆它的政权。 The ‘Biggest Threat to Opsec’ 对行动保密的最大威胁 By then, a small group of top military officials at the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command in Tampa had already begun refining attack plans on the Fordo facility and other Iranian nuclear sites that military planners had drawn up years ago. 到那时，五角大楼和坦帕中央司令部的一小群高级军官已开始完善针对福尔多等几处伊朗核设施的打击方案，军事规划人员在数年前就制定了相关方案。 The planning was led by Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the Centcom commander, and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. 这项计划由中央司令部司令迈克尔·埃里克·库里拉将军和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军领导。 一架对伊朗核设施完成了打击任务的B-2轰炸机周日返回到密苏里州怀特曼的空军基地。 B-2 stealth bombers, based at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, are the only warplanes capable of delivering the GBU-57 bombs without detection by Iranian radar. B-2 bomber pilots have done extensive rehearsals for extended-range missions like the one before them — crossing the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, refueling multiple times before syncing up with fighter jets for the final flight leg into Iran. 驻扎在密苏里州怀特曼空军基地的B-2隐形轰炸机是唯一能够投掷GBU-57炸弹且不被伊朗雷达侦测的战机。B-2轰炸机飞行员为像这次这样的远程任务进行了充分演练——它们穿越大西洋和地中海，数次空中加油，然后与战斗机协同，完成最后进入伊朗的航程。 But even as the military planning was being conducted in secrecy, each of Mr. Trump’s social media posts seemed to be telling the world what was coming. 然而，尽管军事计划在秘密进行，特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖文似乎都在向世界预告即将发生的事情。 The president, said one military official, was the “biggest threat to opsec,” or operational security, that the planning faced. 一位军官表示，总统是该计划“行动安全的最大威胁”。 Shaping the Conversation 舆论操控 By Tuesday, June 17, Mr. Trump had largely made up his mind to strike Iran. But he took his coercive diplomacy to a new level, issuing menacing threats over social media. 到6月17日周二，特朗普基本敲定要对伊朗动手。但他将胁迫性外交提升到了一个新水平，通过社交媒体放狠话。 “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” he posted on Truth Social, adding, “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” He demanded, in all-caps, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” “我们现已完全控制了伊朗的上空，”他在Truth Social平台上宣称，还说：“我们精准掌握了所谓‘最高领袖’的藏身地点。他就是个靶子，但他是安全的——我们不会除掉他（杀死！），至少目前不会。”文末以全大写字母强调：“无条件投降！” By this point, several people in the anti-interventionist camp of Mr. Trump’s advisers realized they most likely could not prevent the president from hitting the Iranian nuclear facilities. So, they turned their focus on trying to ensure the American war did not spiral into an expansive “regime change” war. 此时，特朗普顾问团中的几位反干预派意识到，他们很可能无已法阻止总统攻击伊朗核设施。因此，他们将重心放在努力确保这场美国战争不会升级为一场全面“政权更迭”的战争。 That day, June 17, Vice President JD Vance posted a long series of posts on social media that many within the anti-interventionist camp interpreted as him seeding the ground for a potential U.S. military operation and preemptively defending the president’s likely decision. On Thursday, Mr. Trump was joined for lunch at the White House by Mr. Bannon, one of the most prominent critics of U.S. involvement in Israel’s war with Iran. Some wishful thinkers in the anti-interventionist camp interpreted the meeting as a sign that Mr. Trump was getting cold feet. 当天，即6月17日，副总统JD·万斯在社交媒体上连续发帖，许多反干预派人士对此的解读是，他正在为美国可能的军事行动做铺垫，并预先为总统可能的决定进行辩护。上周四，班农在白宫与特朗普共进午餐，班农是美国介入以伊战争最著名的批评者。反干预阵营中一些抱有幻想的人将这次会面解读为总统临阵退缩的信号。 Ms. Leavitt reinforced that sentiment when she delivered Mr. Trump’s statement, not long after Mr. Bannon arrived at the White House, indicating that he had given himself up to two weeks to make a decision, a time frame he often invoked for decisions on complex issues when he had no clear plan. 班农抵达白宫不久，莱维特便宣读了总统的声明，强化了这种印象。特朗普在声明中说，他给自己两周时间来做决定，他在处理复杂的问题却没有明确计划时，经常声称需要两周时间。 But Mr. Trump had already dictated Ms. Leavitt’s statement before he met with Mr. Bannon. It was a calculated misdirection intended to buy some breathing room for the president while suggesting that no attack was imminent. 但特朗普在与班农会面之前就已经向莱维特口述了声明。这是一种蓄意的误导，旨在为总统争取一些喘息空间，同时暗示攻击并非迫在眉睫。 On Friday, Mr. Trump left the White House in the afternoon for a fund-raising event at his club in Bedminster, N.J., his main summer retreat, further feeding the impression that no attack was imminent. 上周五下午，特朗普离开白宫，前往他在新泽西州贝德明斯特的俱乐部参加一场筹款活动，该俱乐部是他的主要夏季休养地，这进一步强化了攻击并非迫在眉睫的印象。 But within hours, around 5 p.m. on Friday, Mr. Trump ordered the military to begin its Iran mission. Given the 18 hours it would take the B-2s to fly from Missouri to Iran, he knew he still had many more hours to change his mind, as he did at the last minute in 2019, when he ordered airstrikes against Iranian targets and then aborted them. 然而，数小时后，大约在周五下午5点，特朗普命令军方开始伊朗任务。考虑到B-2轰炸机从密苏里飞往伊朗需要18小时，他知道自己还有很多时间可以改变主意，就像他在2019年最后一刻所做的那样，当时他下令对伊朗目标进行空袭然后又取消了。 But few in his administration believed he would pull back this time. 但政府内部几乎无人相信此次他会撤回命令。 举着伊朗国旗和伊朗革命创始人阿亚图拉·霍梅尼（右）、伊朗最高领袖大阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊照片的抗议者们周日在德黑兰。 A One-Off, or Not 只是一次突袭，还是战争的前奏？ A complex and highly synchronized military operation began. Many hours after the two fleets of B-2s took off in opposite directions, the bombers bound for Iran joined up with fighter jets and flew into Iranian airspace. 一场高度协同的复杂军事行动就此展开。两支B-2编队朝相反方向起飞，数小时后，赴伊轰炸机编队与战斗机汇合突入伊朗领空。 American submarines launched 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles on the nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. 美国潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕的核设施发射了30枚战斧式巡航导弹。 As the planes approached Fordo and Natanz, the fighter jets swept in front of the bombers and fired strikes meant to suppress any surface-to-air missiles that Iran might muster, General Caine said in the Pentagon briefing on Sunday. 凯恩在周日的五角大楼简报会上表示，当飞机接近福尔多和纳坦兹时，战斗机飞到轰炸机前方发起打击，旨在压制伊朗任何可能的地对空导弹攻击。 At 2:10 a.m. Sunday morning Iran time, the lead bomber dropped two of the GBU-57 bombs on the Fordo site, buried deep under a mountainside and hundreds of feet of concrete. By the end of the mission, 14 of the “bunker buster” bombs had been dropped, the first time they had ever been used in combat. 伊朗时间周日凌晨2点10分，领头的轰炸机向福尔多设施投下了两枚GBU-57炸弹，该设施深埋于山体下数百英尺的混凝土中。任务最终共投下了14枚“碉堡克星”炸弹，这是它们首次在实战中使用。 Pentagon officials said Sunday that the American bombers and jet fighters never encountered any enemy fire. 五角大楼官员周日表示，美国战机未遭遇任何火力拦截。 Hours after the American aircraft had departed Iranian airspace, Mr. Trump gave a triumphant speech at the White House saying that the mission had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He suggested that the war could end with this one-off mission if Iran would give up its nuclear program and negotiate. 在美国飞机离开伊朗领空数小时后，特朗普在白宫发表了胜利讲话，称此次任务“彻底摧毁了”伊朗的核能力。他暗示，如果伊朗放弃核计划并进行谈判，这场战争就可以通过这次一次性任务而结束。 By Sunday afternoon, however, American officials had tempered the optimism of the night before, saying that Iran’s nuclear facilities might have been severely damaged, but not entirely destroyed. 然而，到上周日下午，美国官员降低了前一晚的乐观情绪，称伊朗的核设施或遭重创，但并未完全摧毁。 Mr. Vance acknowledged that there are questions about the whereabouts of Iran’s stock of near-bomb-grade uranium. He and Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that a regime change in Tehran — which could mean a protracted U.S. engagement — was not the goal. 万斯副总统坦言，伊朗近武器级铀储备的下落存疑。他与国务卿鲁比奥均强调，目标并非颠覆德黑兰政权，后者可能意味着美国卷入长期战争。 But Mr. Trump, whose operation was the subject of praise in news coverage not just from allies but some of his critics, had already moved on, hinting in a Truth Social post that his goals could be shifting. 特朗普的行动在媒体上赢得了盟友乃至部分批评者的赞誉，但他已经转向了新的焦点。他在Truth Social平台上发帖做出了暗示。 “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’” he wrote, “but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” “用‘政权更迭’这个词是政治上不正确的，”他写道，“但如果伊朗现政权做不到‘让伊朗再次伟大’，为什么不能有政权的更迭呢？？？” 麦克萨科技公司提供的卫星图像显示，美国的打击给伊朗福尔多的铀浓缩设施造成了破坏。 Mark Mazzetti是时报驻华盛顿调查记者，主要关注国家安全、情报和外交事务。他著有一本关于CIA的书。 Jonathan Swan是时报政治记者，报道2024年共同大选和特朗普的竞选活动。 Maggie Haberman是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。 Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID PIERSON, BERRY WANG2025年6月24日中国常驻联合国代表傅聪周日在纽约联合国总部召开的安理会紧急会议上讲话。 Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images China said the United States has hurt its reputation as a global power and its diplomatic standing by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities while it was engaged in talks with Tehran. 中国说，美国在与伊朗政府谈判期间打击伊朗的核设施损害了美国作为一个全球大国的声誉和外交名声。 “Iran is harmed, but also harmed is U.S. credibility — as a country and as a party to any international negotiations,” Fu Cong, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, told China’s state broadcaster on Sunday. “伊朗受到了伤害，但同样受损的，还有美国自身的信誉——无论是作为一个国家，还是作为任何国际谈判的参与方，”中国常驻联合国代表傅聪周日在中国的国家电视台上说。 In the battle for global narratives, China has long cast the United States as a warmonger and a destabilizing power while presenting itself as a responsible global leader championing peace and fairness. 在争夺全球叙事话语权的战斗中，中国长期以来一直将美国描绘为战争贩子和破坏稳定的力量，同时将自己表现为倡导和平与公正的负责任的全球领导者。 At an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Sunday, Mr. Fu said that China condemned the U.S. strikes and was joining Russia and Pakistan in drafting a U.N. resolution calling for a cease-fire, the safety of civilians and a start to peace negotiations. 傅聪在联合国安理会周日举行的紧急会议上说，中国谴责美国对伊朗核设施的打击，正在与俄罗斯和巴基斯坦一道起草一项联合国决议，呼吁停火，保护平民安全，启动和平谈判。 The criticism of the United States was echoed in Chinese state media reports on Monday, with the official news agency, Xinhua, accusing the United States of escalating violence in the region. 中国官媒周一发的报道呼应了傅聪对美国的批评，官方通讯社新华社指责美国加剧了中东地区的暴力冲突。 “The worsening situation in the Middle East is a stark reminder that power politics and military interventions lead to nothing but chaos and instability,” the article said. “中东局势的恶化清楚地提醒我们，强权政治和军事干预只会带来混乱和不稳定，”文章称。 In a separate editorial on Monday, the Communist Party tabloid, the Global Times, said the U.S. strikes had weakened “the foundation of the international security order.” 中共小报《环球时报》在周一的一篇社评中说，美国打击伊朗核设施削弱了“国际安全秩序的基础”。 On China’s heavily censored internet forums, users have left furious comments about how Iran was deceived into thinking it was negotiating a nuclear agreement with the United States, only to lower its guard and become the target of U.S. bombs. 在中国受到严格审查的互联网论坛上，用户们留下了愤怒评论，称伊朗被骗了，以为自己正在与美国进行核协议的谈判，放松了警惕，结果成为美国轰炸的目标。 China’s rhetoric belies a more complicated reality. Beijing has been one of Tehran’s biggest backers, diplomatically and economically. Its purchases of almost all of Iran’s oil exports have helped a brutal Iranian regime stay in power and deliver support to its terrorist proxies abroad, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. 中国的这些说法掩盖了一个更为复杂的现实。中国一直是伊朗最重要的外交和经济支持者之一。它几乎包揽了伊朗所有的出口石油，这帮助维系了残暴的伊朗政权继续掌权，并为伊朗在海外的恐怖主义代理（包括哈马斯、真主党、胡塞武装分子）提供支持。 It remains to be seen how China might use its influence over Iran as fears of a broader conflict grow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday urged China to persuade Tehran not to make good on a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital waterways for the transport of oil. 随着对更广泛冲突的担忧加剧，中国将如何使用自己对伊朗的影响力还有待观察。美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周日敦促中国劝说伊朗，不要执行封锁霍尔木兹海峡的威胁，这是世界上最重要的石油运输水道之一。 “China will certainly oppose Iran” closing the strait, said Wang Yiwei, the director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing, because of China’s need for access to Iranian oil. But it would only do so on its terms and in its own time, he suggested. “中国肯定会反对伊朗”封锁霍尔木兹海峡，中国人民大学国际问题研究所所长王义桅说，因为中国需要得到伊朗的石油。但中国只会按照自己的条件和自己的时间表来那样做，他暗示。 “However, it would be improper, or even counterproductive, to discuss this with the United States, or to exert pressure on Iran at the request of the United States,” he added. “但是，与美国讨论这件事，或按照美国的要求向伊朗施压不合适，甚至会适得其反，”他补充道。 When asked on Monday what China would do if Iran closed the strait, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, deflected and called on the international community to “step up its efforts to promote the de-escalation of the conflict.” 在周一的例行记者会上，有记者问外交部发言人郭嘉昆，如果伊朗封锁海峡，中国将采取什么措施时，他避而不答，只是呼吁国际社会“加大努力，推动冲突降级”。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
袁莉2025年6月23日 Dongyan Xu Since the 1980s, more than 800 million Chinese have risen out of poverty. China’s middle class expanded from virtually no one to about 400 million. Villagers moved to cities. Tens of millions of people became the first in their families to attend college. 自20世纪80年代以来，超过8亿中国人摆脱了贫困。中国的中产阶级从几乎没有，扩大到大约4亿人。村民们搬到了城市。数以千万计的人成为家中第一个上大学的人。 Today, China’s economic growth has slowed. As wages stagnate and jobs disappear, the promise of upward social mobility is eroding, especially for those from modest backgrounds. 今天，中国的经济增长已经放缓。随着工资停滞不前，工作岗位逐渐消失，社会向上流动的希望正在破灭，尤其是对那些出身普通的人来说。 For many people like Boris Gao, the Chinese Dream no longer feels achievable. 对许多像鲍里斯·高（音）这样的人来说，中国梦已经遥不可及。 After Mr. Gao’s parents were laid off from their jobs at state-owned factories, his father drove a taxi and his mother stayed home. The family struggled to make ends meet. To save money, his mother canceled a text message service from his school, causing him to miss notifications of homework and school activities. 他的父母从国有工厂下岗后，父亲开出租车，母亲留在家里。一家人的生活捉襟见肘。为了省钱，母亲取消了学校的短信服务，导致他错过了家庭作业和学校活动的通知。 But Mr. Gao was exceptionally driven. After graduating from college in 2016, he worked hard, saved aggressively and attended a graduate program in Hong Kong. Since 2024, his job hunt has been an ordeal. One company asked him to work with no pay during a trial period. He quit a job after not being paid for two months. Another company rejected him because he was educated outside mainland China, making him politically unreliable, he was told. 但是鲍里斯·高特别努力。2016年大学毕业后，他勤奋工作，积极存钱，在香港读了研究生。自2024年以来，他的求职一波三折。一家公司要求他在试用期无偿工作。因为两个月未领到工资，他辞掉了另一份工作。还有一家公司拒绝他，是因为他在中国大陆以外接受教育，这使得他在政治上不可靠。 In one interview, he was asked about his parents’ professions, which is not unusual in China. “Your family has low social status,” Mr. Gao was told and did not get the job. 在一次面试中，他被问及父母的职业，这在中国并不罕见。“你的家庭社会地位很低，”鲍里斯·高被告知，并且没有得到这份工作。 “To them, perseverance is a defect,” he said. “If you have to struggle, it means you’re not good enough.” “对他们来说，坚持不懈是一种缺陷，”他说。“如果你必须拼命奋斗，那就意味着你不够好。” Anxiety over inequality is growing in China. Children of privilege inherit not only wealth but also prestigious jobs and powerful connections. Children of laborers and farmers, no matter how driven or well educated, often struggle to break through. 在中国，对不平等的焦虑正在加剧。特权家庭的子女不仅继承财富，还继承了有声望的工作和强大的关系网。而劳工和农民的孩子，无论多么努力或受过多么良好的教育，往往难以取得突破。 北京的大学生。在中国，对不平等的担忧与日俱增，因为即使受过教育也不一定能找到一份稳定的工作。 It’s a dynamic that would feel familiar to many in the United States and some other developed nations. But in China, the stakes are higher. The average standard of living is lower, and the social safety net is far more fragile. 这种情况，对于美国和其他一些发达国家的许多人来说都很熟悉。但在中国意味着更严重的后果。人们的平均生活水平更低，社会保障体系也更加脆弱。 The disillusionment is being captured sarcastically online. One buzzword is “Pindie,” a biting term for nepotism that means “competing through one’s father.” Another is “county Brahmins,” which lampoons small-town elites who gain status by monopolizing connections and jobs. 网络上以一种讽刺的方式捕捉到了这种幻灭感。其中一个流行语是“拼爹”， 这是一个对裙带关系的尖刻说法，意思是“靠父亲来竞争”。另一个流行语是“县城婆罗门”，讽刺那些通过垄断关系和工作获得地位的小镇精英。 The discontent over privilege boiled over recently when a trainee doctor in the center of an extramarital affair with a doctor appeared to have questionable credentials. People noted that her father led a big state-owned enterprise and that her mother was a senior official at a university. After an investigation, her medical license was revoked. 最近，一位与医生发生婚外情的实习医生被怀疑资质有问题，对特权的不满情绪随之爆发。人们注意到，她的父亲领导着一家大型国有企业，她的母亲是一所大学的高级官员。经过调查，她的行医执照被吊销。 The online debate fueled outrage that family ties, not merit, are what advance careers in China today. 网上的争论激起了人们的愤怒，认为在今天的中国，家庭关系，而不是价值，才是晋升的关键。 “At a time when competition for quality education is fierce and jobs are hard to find after graduation, fairness is not just a moral imperative,” wrote Hu Xijin, the retired editor of the official Global Times tabloid. “It is essential to maintaining social stability.” “在当前优质教育资源竞争激烈，毕业后工作难找的情况下，公平尤其是实现社会情绪平稳的关键事项，”官方小报《环球时报》退休主编胡锡进写道。 To understand this shift, I put out a call for Chinese people to write to me about their experiences in trying to move up from working-class backgrounds. All the responses I received were from men. I interviewed five of them, all between the ages of 25 and 49. They asked that I use only their family names or their English names because they feared government retribution. 为了理解这种转变，我呼吁中国人给我写信，告诉我他们从工人阶级出身努力向上发展的经历。我收到的所有回复都来自男性。我采访了其中的五位，年龄在25岁到49岁之间。由于担心政府的报复，他们要求我只使用他们的姓氏或英文名。 无论多么有抱负，工人和农民的子女在向上流动时往往都会面临巨大的障碍。 The two oldest in the group did not go to college but rode China’s wave of growth that took off at the start of the century. They are now worried they will slip back to where they started. 这群人中年龄最大的两位没有上过大学，但却搭上了本世纪初中国经济增长的便车。他们现在担心自己会倒退，回到起点。 One of those two, who asked that I use only his surname, Zhao, dropped out of high school and became a coal miner. For three years, he worked eight-hour shifts in dark, freezing mine shafts. Then he moved to Beijing to pursue acting and worked briefly as a film extra. 其中一位要求我只透露他姓赵，他高中辍学后成了一名煤矿工人。三年来，他在黑暗、冰冷的矿井里轮班工作，每班工作八小时。后来他搬到北京从事表演工作，做过一段时间的电影临时演员。 In 2014, China’s housing market was booming. Mr. Zhao started working in real estate. His $700 monthly pay matched what he had made as a miner, but, he said, “I could see the sun and live a normal life.” 2014年，中国房地产市场蓬勃发展。赵先生开始从事房地产工作。他每月约5000元的工资与他当矿工时的相当，但他说，“我可以看到太阳，过上正常的生活。” In 2017, he became a mortgage broker, and his pay increased several fold. One month in 2020, he earned $15,000. He married and bought a car. 2017年，他成了一名抵押贷款经纪人，工资增加了几倍。2020年的一个月，他赚了约10万元。他结婚了，还买了车。 Then the housing market collapsed. He has had no income for the past year. He has considered returning to the mines, but the thought of that dark world repelled him. Now Mr. Zhao, 38, and his wife live on her $500 monthly salary. Children are out of the question. 接着，房地产市场崩溃了。他去年没有任何收入。他曾考虑过回到矿上，但一想到那个黑暗的世界，他就感到厌恶。现在，38岁的赵先生和妻子靠她每月3500元的工资生活。要孩子是不可能的。 “I’m stuck in limbo,” he said. “The better life is out of reach, and I can’t fall low enough to start over. I have no idea what I should be doing.” “我进退两难，”他说。“更好的生活遥不可及，我又不能落到重新开始的地步。我不知道我该做什么。” The three younger men I interviewed, born in the 1990s, called themselves “small-town test-taking experts.” That is slang used to describe strivers who believed education would lift them up, only to find they were shut out of elite networks and stuck in dead-end jobs. 我采访的三位90后年轻人自称是“小镇做题家”。这是一个俗语，用来形容那些相信教育能提升地位的奋斗者，结果，他们却发现自己被精英网络拒之门外，从事着没有前途的工作。 The three men grew up in rural and working-class homes and rose above their parents’ social class through hard work and by attending universities. But they all learned it would be hard to fully escape their socioeconomic backgrounds. 这三个人在农村和工人阶级家庭长大，通过努力工作和上大学而超越了父母的社会阶层。但他们都知道，要完全摆脱自己的社会经济背景是很难的。 Two of them had to give up spots at leading foreign schools, one at Columbia University and the other at the London School of Economics, because of the cost. 其中两名学生因为学费问题，不得不放弃了外国名校的入学资格，一个人放弃了哥伦比亚大学，另一个人放弃了伦敦政治经济学院。 All three recalled that, when they were growing up, their parents had paid little attention to their education. 他们三个人都回忆说，在他们成长的过程中，父母很少关注他们的教育。 对一些中国学生来说，教育让他们看到了不平等。 Their experiences with education were the opposite of those of children in many of China’s upper-middle-class families. Those parents pushed their children into math and computer classes, and piano lessons and English tutoring. They are driven by the fear of letting their children “lose at the starting line.” These families may have more in common with their American peers than with China’s working class. 他们的教育经历与中国许多中上层家庭的孩子截然相反。这些父母强迫孩子去上数学和计算机课，钢琴课和英语辅导。他们害怕孩子“输在起跑线上”。与中国的工人阶级相比，这些家庭与美国同阶层家庭的共同点可能更多。 For the three small-town strivers I interviewed, their educations opened their eyes to inequality. 对于我采访的三位小镇做题家来说，他们所受的教育让他们看到了不平等。 One of them, Gary Liang, said most of the parents of classmates at his elementary school had worked at factories. When he was in high school, most parents were professionals. One student had a foreign English-language tutor. 其中一位名叫加里·梁（音）的学生说，他小学同学的父母大多在工厂工作。到他上中学的时候，大多数同学的父母都是白领。一个同学在家有英语外教。 The contrast was even more jarring when Mr. Liang entered a prestigious university in central China. The father of one of his roommates was a local-level Communist Party secretary; another roommate’s father was a university dean. 当加里·梁进入中国中部的一所名牌大学时，这种反差更加强烈。他的一个室友的父亲是地方党委书记；另一个室友的父亲是一所大学的院长。 While his roommates dined out, Mr. Liang got by on food from the university canteen and tutored high school students to earn some cash. At the time, he did not understand why his roommates spent so much time networking at school. 当室友去吃馆子的时候，加里·梁靠大学食堂勉强度日，给高中生当家教赚点外快。当时，他不明白室友们为什么要花那么多时间，在学校里建立关系网。 “It’s very unfair,” said Mr. Liang, who is now pursuing a Ph.D. in Japan. “You put in so much effort, and then you realize that some things are just a lot easier for other people, or not nearly as hard for them.” “这很不公平，”正在日本攻读博士学位的梁先生说。“你付出了如此多的努力，然后你意识到有些事情对其他人来说要容易得多，或者对他们来说没有那么难。” 中国广州一家制衣厂的夜班。 One sought-after path to move up in China runs through state-owned enterprises, which can offer elite, stable jobs. But landing one can require the right connections. 在中国，进入国有企业是炙手可热的晋升之路，国企可以提供稳定的精英职位。但要实现这一目标，可能需要合适的关系。 Josh Tang, a STEM graduate from a rural background, wanted to change his career from the grueling work culture of the tech industry. His father, a manual laborer who had once owned a small business, asked village relatives to help his son land a job at a bank. Mr. Tang submitted two applications but didn’t get an interview. 约西·唐（音）是一名农村出身的理科毕业生，他想改变自己的职业生涯，摆脱科技行业艰苦的工作文化。他的父亲是一名体力劳动者，曾经开过一家小公司，他请村里的亲戚帮儿子在银行找到一份工作。约西·唐提交了两份申请，但都没有得到面试机会。 When the economy was better, jobs at state-owned enterprises occasionally trickled down to people with his family background, said Mr. Tang, who went back to work in tech. But now, he added, “they’re viewed as the safest bets, so they circulate within the same class.” 后来又回到科技行业工作的约西·唐说，当经济好转时，国有企业的工作偶尔会流向他这种家庭背景的人，但现在，他说，“它们被视为最安全的选择，所以它们在同一个阶层中流动。” “They’re hoarded, not shared,” he said. “它们被囤积起来，不对外分享，”他说。 袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID E. SANGER2025年6月23日美国总统特朗普周六表示，如果伊朗不转向和平，它将遭受比迄今为止更大的“悲剧”。 Eric Lee for The New York Times Over the past two decades, the United States has used sanctions, sabotage, cyberattacks and diplomatic negotiations to try to slow what looked to most of the world like Iran’s long march to a nuclear weapon. 过去20年里，美国一直在使用制裁、破坏行动、网络攻击和外交谈判等手段，试图延缓伊朗在多数世人眼中迈向核武器的漫长进程。 At roughly 2:30 a.m. Sunday in Iran, President Trump unleashed a show of raw military might that each of his last four predecessors had deliberately avoided, for fear of plunging the United States into war in the Middle East. 周日凌晨2点30分左右，特朗普总统发动了一场其四位前任因担心将美国拖入中东战火而刻意回避的赤裸裸的武力展示。 After days of declaring that he could not take the risk that the mullahs and generals of Tehran who had survived Israel’s strikes would make a final leap to a nuclear weapon, he ordered a fleet of B-2 bombers halfway around the world to drop the most powerful conventional bombs on the most critical sites in Iran’s vast nuclear complexes. 几天来，他一直宣称，他不能冒险放任那些在以色列袭击中幸存下来的德黑兰毛拉和将军们完成最后一次飞跃，达到拥有核武器的地步。在此之后，他命令B-2轰炸机编队跨越大半个地球，向伊朗庞大的核设施中最关键的地点投下威力最大的常规炸弹。 The prime target was the deeply buried enrichment center at Fordo, which Israel was incapable of reaching. 首要目标是深埋在福尔多的浓缩中心，那里超出了以色列的打击能力。 For Mr. Trump, the decision to attack the nuclear infrastructure of a hostile nation represents the biggest — and potentially most dangerous — gamble of his second term. 对特朗普来说，决定攻击敌对国家的核基础设施是他第二个任期内最大的赌博，也可能是最危险的赌博。 He is betting that the United States can repel whatever retaliation Iran’s leadership orders against more than 40,000 American troops spread over bases throughout the region. All are within range of Tehran’s missile fleet, even after eight days of relentless attacks by Israel. And he is betting that he can deter a vastly debilitated Iran from using its familiar techniques — terrorism, hostage-taking and cyberattacks — as a more indirect line of attack to wreak revenge. 他赌的是无论伊朗领导人下令对驻扎在中东各处的4万多名美国驻军采取何种报复行动，美国都能将其击退。这些基地都在德黑兰导弹群的射程之内，即使是在以色列进行了八天持续攻击之后。他更是在赌美国可以阻止元气大伤的伊朗使用惯用手段——恐怖主义、劫持人质和网络攻击这类间接方式实施报复。 Most importantly, he is betting that he has destroyed Iran’s chances of ever reconstituting its nuclear program. That is an ambitious goal: Iran has made clear that, if attacked, it would exit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and take its vast program underground. That is why Mr. Trump focused so much attention on destroying Fordo, the facility Iran built in secret that was publicly exposed by President Barack Obama in 2009. That is where Iran was producing almost all of the near-bomb-grade fuel that most alarmed the United States and its allies. 最重要的是，他在赌自己已经摧毁了伊朗重建核计划的机会。这是一个雄心勃勃的目标：伊朗已经明确表示，如果受到攻击，它将退出《核不扩散条约》，并将其庞大的核项目转入地下。这就是为什么特朗普如此关注摧毁伊朗秘密建造的福尔多设施，该设施在2009年被奥巴马总统公开曝光。伊朗此前在此生产令美国及其盟友极度恐慌的近武器级核燃料。 Mr. Trump’s aides were telling those allies on Saturday night that Washington’s sole mission was to destroy the nuclear program. They described the complex strike as a limited, contained operation akin to the special operation that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011. 周六晚上，特朗普的助手告诉这些盟友，华盛顿的唯一任务就是摧毁核计划。他们称这次复杂的打击是一次有限的可控行动，类似于2011年击毙奥萨马·本·拉登的特别行动。 “They explicitly said this was not a declaration of war,” one senior European diplomat said late Saturday, describing his conversation with a high-ranking administration official. “他们明确表示，这不是宣战，”一名欧洲高级外交官周六晚间在描述他与一名美国政府高级官员的谈话时说。 But, the diplomat added, bin Laden had killed 3,000 Americans. Iran had yet to build a bomb. 但是，这位外交官补充说，本·拉登杀死了3000名美国人。伊朗还没有造出核弹。 In short, the administration is arguing that it was engaged in an act of pre-emption, seeking to terminate a threat, not the Iranian regime. But it is far from clear that the Iranians will perceive it that way. In a brief address from the White House on Saturday night, flanked by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Mr. Trump threatened Iran with more destruction if it does not bend to his demands. 简而言之，政府辩称此举属先发制人，旨在消除威胁而非推翻伊朗政权。但伊朗人是否会这么认为还远不清楚。周六晚上，在副总统万斯、国务卿鲁比奥和国防部长海格塞斯的陪同下，特朗普在白宫发表了简短讲话。他威胁称，如果伊朗不屈服于他的要求，将会遭遇更猛烈的打击。 “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace,” he said. “If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.” “伊朗，中东的恶霸，现在必须实现和平，”他说。“如果他们不这样做，未来的袭击规模将大得多，也容易得多。” “There will be either peace,” he added, “or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left.” He promised that if Iran did not relent, he would go after them “with precision, speed and skill.” “要么是和平，”他补充说，“要么伊朗会面临比我们在过去八天所目睹的更大的悲剧。记住，还有很多目标。”他承诺，如果伊朗不松口，他将“以精确、迅速和技巧”打击他们。 In essence, Mr. Trump was threatening to broaden his military partnership with Israel, which has spent the last eight days systematically targeting Iran’s top military and nuclear leadership, killing them in their beds, their laboratories and their bunkers. The United States initially separated itself from that operation. In the Trump administration’s first public statement about those strikes, Mr. Rubio emphasized that Israel took “unilateral action against Iran,” adding that the United States was “not involved.” 从本质上讲，特朗普是在威胁扩大与以色列的军事伙伴关系。过去八天里，以色列系统性地定点清除了伊朗的最高军事与核计划负责人，将他们杀死在床上、实验室和掩体中。美国最初与该行动划清界限。在特朗普政府就这些袭击发表的首次公开声明中，鲁比奥强调，以色列“对伊朗采取了单方面行动”，并补充说，美国“没有参与”。 But then, a few days ago, Mr. Trump mused on his social media platform about the ability of the United States to kill Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, anytime he wanted. And Saturday night, he made clear that the United States was all in, and that contrary to Mr. Rubio’s statement, the country was now deeply involved. 但几天前，特朗普在自己的社交媒体平台上若有所思地表示，美国有能力随时杀死伊朗86岁的最高领袖哈梅内伊。周六晚上，他明确表示，美国已经全力以赴，而且与鲁比奥的声明相反，美国现在已经深度参与其中。 Now, having set back Iran’s enrichment capability, Mr. Trump is clearly hoping that he can seize on a remarkable moment of weakness — the weakness that allowed the American B-2 bombers to fly in and out of Iranian territory with little resistance. 现在，在挫败了伊朗的铀浓缩能力之后，特朗普显然希望能抓住一个罕见的虚弱时刻——正是藉于此，美国B-2轰炸机得以在伊朗领土上几乎不受任何阻力地进出。 After Israel’s fierce retaliation for the Oct. 7, 2023 terror attacks that killed over a thousand Israeli civilians, Iran is suddenly bereft of its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. Its closest ally, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, had to flee the country. And Russia and China, which formed a partnership of convenience with Iran, were nowhere to be seen after Israel attacked the country. 在以色列对2023年10月7日造成1000多名以色列平民死亡的恐怖袭击进行激烈报复之后，伊朗突然失去了哈马斯和真主党这两大代理人。它最亲密的盟友、叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德不得不流亡海外。而与伊朗结成权宜伙伴关系的俄罗斯和中国，在以色列袭击伊朗后也不见踪影。 That left only the nuclear program as Iran’s ultimate defense. It was always more than just a scientific project — it was the symbol of Iranian resistance to the West, and the core of the leadership’s plan to hold on to power. 伊朗的最终防御手段只剩下核计划。它绝不仅仅是一个科研项目——它是伊朗抵抗西方的象征，也是领导层巩固政权计划的核心。 Along with the repression of dissent, the program had become the ultimate means of defense for the inheritors of the Iranian revolution that began in 1979. If the taking of 52 American hostages was Iran’s way of standing up to a far larger, far more powerful adversary in 1979, the nuclear program has been the symbol of resistance for the last two decades. 伴随着对异见的镇压，该计划已成为1979年开始的伊朗革命继承者的终极防御手段。如果说1979年劫持52名美国人质是伊朗对抗一个体量更大、实力更强的对手的方式，那么在过去20年里，核计划一直是抵抗精神的象征。 One day historians may well draw a line from those images of blindfolded Americans, who were held for 444 days, to the dropping of GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs on the mountainous redoubt called Fordo. They will probably ask whether the United States, its allies or the Iranians themselves could have played this differently. 有一天，历史学家很可能会把那些被蒙住眼睛关押了444天的美国人的画面，与投向山间堡垒福尔多的GBU-57钻地弹联系起来。他们可能会问，美国及其盟友，或伊朗人自己，是否可以采取不同的做法处理这些事件。 And they will almost certainly ask whether Mr. Trump’s gamble paid off. 他们几乎肯定会问，特朗普的赌博是否得到了回报。 His critics in Congress were already questioning his approach. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said Mr. Trump had acted “without consulting Congress, without a clear strategy, without regard to the consistent conclusions of the intelligence community” that Iran had made no decision to take the final steps to a bomb. 他在国会的批评者已经开始质疑他的做法。情报委员会民主党领袖、弗吉尼亚州参议员马克·华纳表示，特朗普的行动“没有征求国会的意见，没有制定明确的战略，没有考虑情报界的一致结论”——情报界的结论是，伊朗尚未决定迈出制造核弹的最后一步。 If Iran finds itself unable to respond effectively, if the ayatollah’s hold on power is now loosened, or if the country gives up its long-running nuclear ambitions, Mr. Trump will doubtless claim that only he was willing to use America’s military reach to achieve a goal his last four predecessors deemed too risky. 如果伊朗发现无法做出有效回应，如果阿亚图拉对权力的控制现在放松了，或者如果伊朗放弃了长期以来的核野心，特朗普无疑会声称，只有他愿意利用美国的军事力量来实现他的前四位前任认为过于冒险的目标。 But there is another possibility. Iran could slowly recover, its surviving nuclear scientists could take their skills underground and the country could follow the pathway lit by North Korea, with a race to build a bomb. Today, North Korea has 60 or more nuclear weapons by some intelligence estimates, an arsenal that probably makes it too powerful to attack. 但是还有另一种可能。伊朗可能会慢慢恢复，其幸存的核科学家可能会把他们的技能转入地下，这个国家可能会走上朝鲜开辟的道路，加速制造核弹。如今，据一些情报机构估计，朝鲜拥有60件或更多的核武器，这个核武库很可能已强大到无法被攻击。 That, Iran may conclude, is the only pathway to keep larger, hostile powers at bay, and to prevent the United States and Israel from carrying out an operation like the one that lit up the Iranian skies on Sunday morning. 伊朗可能会得出这样的结论：这是牵制更大的敌对势力，防止美国和以色列采取类似周日早上照亮伊朗天空行动的唯一途径。 David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
纪思道2025年6月23日 President Trump has claimed a “spectacular military success” in destroying three sites in Iran; we’ll see if that’s true. What is clear is that he has pushed America into a war with Iran that he acknowledges may escalate. 特朗普总统宣称摧毁伊朗三处目标，取得“辉煌的军事胜利”——此说法是否属实仍有待验证。可以确定的是，他已将美国推入与伊朗的战争中，而且他也承认局势可能升级。 Beyond doubts about the legal basis for bombing Iran, I see risks for America and the world ahead revolving around three fundamental unknowns. 除了对轰炸伊朗的合法性存疑外，我认为美国和世界未来面临的风险围绕着三个根本性的未知因素展开。 The first uncertainty is how Iran will strike back at the United States. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously promised, “The harm the U.S. will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily.” 第一个不确定性是伊朗将如何反击美国。伊朗最高领袖大阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊此前曾经放话：“如果美国军事介入这场冲突，将遭受无法挽回的后果。” Iran has many options, including attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere in the region. It could also mount cyberattacks, strike American embassies or support terrorist attacks. 伊朗手里的选项有不少，包括袭击美军在伊拉克、巴林及中东其他地区的基地。可能还有发动网络攻击、袭击美国大使馆，或者支持恐怖袭击。 Another option would be to seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, fully or partly, by attacking shipping or by laying mines. That could be a blow to the world economy, for one-quarter of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Experts have told me that they believe the United States could, over time, reopen the strait, but there might be economic and other costs. When Iran mined the strait in 1988, a mine crippled a U.S. Navy frigate, the Samuel B. Roberts. 另一个选择是通过攻击船只或布设水雷完全或部分关闭霍尔木兹海峡。这将重创世界经济，因为全球四分之一的石油输运要经过这里。多位专家告诉我，他们相信美国最终可以重新开放海峡，但需要付出经济和其他代价。1988年伊朗在该海峡布雷时，一颗水雷曾使美国海军护卫舰“塞缪尔·B·罗伯茨”号遭受重创。 When the United States assassinated Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian general, in 2020, Iran launched a missile barrage at American bases in Iraq. A Ukrainian passenger jet was hit by accident, killing all 176 people aboard. 2020年，美国暗杀伊朗高级将领卡西姆·苏莱曼尼后，伊朗向伊拉克的美军基地发射了导弹。一架乌克兰客机被意外击中，机上176人全部遇难。 My guess is that Iran may want to strike back harder this time, partly to try to re-establish deterrence, but its capacity to do so may be more limited. Israeli strikes might have impaired its ability to mine the strait, for example, and doing so would also impede Iran’s oil shipments to China, annoying its friends in Beijing. 我推测，伊朗此次可能想进行更猛烈的报复，一定程度上是为了重树威慑力，但它可能力不从心。例如，以色列的打击可能已经削弱了它在该海峡的布雷能力，而且这样做也会阻碍它自己对中国的石油运输，从而触怒在北京的盟友。 But it’s worth remembering something James Mattis, a defense secretary in Trump’s first term, once said: “No war is over until the enemy says it’s over. We may think it over, but in fact, the enemy gets a vote.” 但需谨记特朗普第一任期的国防部长的詹姆斯·马蒂斯曾说过的话：“战争终局，不由己定。纵自认胜券在握，敌方仍有终局发言权。” The second uncertainty is whether the Israeli and American strikes have ended Iran’s nuclear efforts or perhaps even accelerated them. That depends, in part, on whether the bombing of Fordo and other sites was as successful as Trump claimed, and that may take time to figure out. 第二未知数是以色列与美国的打击究竟终结还是加速了伊朗的核计划。这部分取决于福尔多以及其他地点的轰炸是否如特朗普声称的那样取得成功，而这可能需要时间才能查明真相。 It was not clear beforehand that even 30,000-pound American bunker busters would be sufficient to destroy the Fordo enrichment site, which is buried deep in a rock mountain. We also don’t know if Iran has other centrifuges in another, unknown site. 即使15吨的美国地堡炸弹，事前也无法确定是否足以摧毁福尔多山体中的铀浓缩设施。我们也不知道伊朗是否在其他未知地点还藏有离心机。 There’s broad agreement that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a disaster and would lead other countries in the region to develop their own weapon programs. But Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s director of national intelligence, publicly said this spring that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon; he was dismissive of that. 外界普遍认为，一个拥有核武器的伊朗将是一场灾难，并将导致该地区其他国家竞相发展自己的核武器项目。但特朗普的国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德今年春天公开表示，伊朗并未制造核武器，他认为该说法不足采信。 The risk is that Israeli and American attacks on Iran lead that country to decide it does need nuclear weapons. After all, if it had nuclear weapons, Israel would have been far less likely to bomb it. 风险在于，以色列和美国对伊朗的袭击可能导致该国决意发展核武器。毕竟，如果拥有核武器，以色列必不敢轻易轰炸。 Iran has already enriched enough fissile material to a high level for as many as 10 nuclear weapons, according to experts; that material was believed to be in the city of Isfahan. Trump said the U.S. struck Isfahan, but it’s not clear whether the site was destroyed. 专家指出，伊朗已浓缩足够多的高丰度裂变材料，可制造多达10枚核弹，据信这些材料存于伊斯法罕。特朗普称美军打击了该地，但摧毁与否不明。 The third and final question is the largest: Is this the end of the conflict or the beginning? 第三个未知数，也是最关键的一个问题：这究竟是冲突的结束还是开始？ Optimists such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel seem to believe that he and the United States can end both Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian regime. Then again, Netanyahu was a strong supporter of the Iraq war and thought that would bring change to Iran as well; instead, the Iraq war benefited Iran. 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡等乐观派认为，美以可终结伊朗的核计划及政权。但需注意，内塔尼亚胡曾是伊拉克战争的坚定支持者，曾希望其改变伊朗，结果伊拉克战争反使伊朗受益。 Even if Iran’s enrichment capacity is gone, the expertise to enrich uranium is probably not possible to extinguish. So if the regime remains, this may be more of a setback than an end to the nuclear program. 即使伊朗浓缩能力被毁，铀浓缩技术恐难消除。只要政权仍在，这可能只是核计划的一个挫折，而不是终结。 As for the idea that bombing will destroy the regime, there’s not much sign of that. Iranian dissidents, like the Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, decried the bombing last week and called on Trump to stop the bombing, not join it. 至于轰炸能否摧毁政权，目前没有什么迹象能证明这一点。伊朗的一些异议人士，如诺贝尔和平奖得主纳尔吉斯·穆罕默迪，上周谴责了以色列的轰炸行为，并呼吁特朗普止战而非参战。 In my travels in Iran, I’ve seen how unpopular the regime is. Iran — at the popular level — has always struck me as one of the most pro-American countries in the region, precisely because the government is so resented for corruption, hypocrisy and economic incompetence. 我在伊朗旅行时看到了这个政权多么不受欢迎。在民众层面，伊朗一直是我眼中该地区最亲美的国家之一，正是因为政府因腐败、虚伪和经济无能而引起民众的极大厌恶。 That pro-Americanism seemed to bode well for the future, after the death of the supreme leader. But a pro-American government seems less likely if we have waged war on Iran. Indeed, regime change might look more like a hard-line coup than anything else. Once again, the range of possibilities is immense, with some quite alarming. 在最高领袖去世后，这种亲美倾向本预示着美好的未来。但若美国对伊开战，亲美政府恐难以出现。事实上，政权更迭更有可能是一场强硬派发起的政变。可以预见的是，未来存在各种可能性，其中一些相当令人担忧。 Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland, framed the risks this way: “While we all agree that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon, Trump abandoned diplomatic efforts to achieve that goal and instead chose to unnecessarily endanger American lives, further threaten our armed forces in the region and risk pulling America into another long conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. intelligence community has repeatedly assessed that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. There was more time for diplomacy to work.” 马里兰州民主党参议员克里斯·范霍伦是这样阐述这些风险的：“尽管伊朗不能拥有核武器是大家的共识，但特朗普放弃了实现这一目标的外交努力，反而选择了不必要地危及美国人的生命，进一步威胁我们在该地区的武装力量，并冒着将美国拖入另一场中东长期冲突的风险。美国情报界多次评估认为，伊朗没有在制造核武器，本有更多时间通过外交手段解决。” That seems right to me. Trump’s speech was triumphant, but it’s much too early to be celebrating, and far too much uncertainty remains. 在我看来，此言甚为中肯。特朗普发表了胜利的演说，但庆祝为时过早，不确定性依然巨大。 纪思道(Nicholas Kristof) 2001起成为时报专栏作家，曾两次获得普利策奖。他最新出版的回忆录名为《追逐希望：一名记者的报道生涯》(“Chasing Hope: A Reporter’s Life”)。欢迎在Twitter上关注他。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
HELENE COOPER, ERIC SCHMITT, JULIAN E. BARNES2025年6月23日一名美国官员说，六架B-2轰炸机向福尔多的核设施投下了12枚碉堡克星炸弹。 Sarah Silbiger/Reuters The U.S. strikes on nuclear sites in Iran are an extraordinary turn for a military that was supposed to be moving on from two decades of forever wars in the Middle East, and they put the United States back on war footing. 美国打击伊朗核设施的做法标志着一个极不寻常的转折，美军本应从长达20年的中东无休止战争中抽身，但这一举动却让美国再次准备在那里打仗。 Across the region, where more than 40,000 American troops are on bases and warships, the strikes ushered in a period of high alert as the Pentagon braced for almost-certain retaliation from Iran. 中东地区的基地和军舰上部署了逾4万名美军。这次打击行动让他们进入高度戒备状态，因为五角大楼已为伊朗几乎必将采取的报复行动做好准备。 President Trump announced on social media that three Iranian sites were hit, including the mountain facility at Fordo. The bombs used in the strikes are believed to include “bunker busters,” which are designed to destroy deep underground bunkers or well-buried weapons in highly protected facilities. 特朗普总统在社交媒体上宣布，美军打击了伊朗的三个核设施，包括位于福尔多山体下的的设施。打击使用的炸弹据说包括“碉堡克星”，这种炸弹是为摧毁深地掩体或被高度保护的地下武器设施设计的。 A U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence said that multiple 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs were dropped on Fordo, and that initial damage assessments indicated that the facility had been “taken off the table.” The attack was the first time the U.S. military had used the weapon in combat. 一名为了方便讨论涉密情报而要求不具名的美国官员说，美军对福尔多的核设施投下了多枚重达15吨的碉堡克星炸弹，初步的破坏评估表明，福尔多核设施已被“完全摧毁”。这次打击是美军首次在实战中使用这种炸弹。 The strikes, whether successful or not, are likely to trigger a fierce response. Tehran has vowed to strike at American bases in the Middle East, and American intelligence agencies confirmed before the strikes took place that Iran would take steps to widen the war and hit U.S. forces in the region. 无论此次打击是否成功，都可能引发激烈报复。伊朗政府已誓言要打击美国在中东的军事基地。美国情报机构在这次打击发生前就已确认，伊朗会采取步骤扩大战争，攻击位于该地区的美军部队。 U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence, said the strikes against the three nuclear sites were complete. The official said no follow-up attacks were expected, although commanders were ready to respond to any Iranian retaliation. 因为讨论的是情报而要求不具名的多名美国官员说，打击这三个核设施的行动已经完成。前述官员表示，虽然预计不会有后续打击，但指挥官们已为回应伊朗的任何报复行动做好准备。 A U.S. official said that six B-2 bombers dropped 12 bunker-buster bombs on Fordo, and Navy submarines fired 30 cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan. One B-2 also dropped two bunker-buster bombs on Natanz, the official said. The strikes are the culmination of years of planning by U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the region. But few thought those plans would be carried out so suddenly. They came more than a week after Israel launched attacks on Iran. 一名美国官员说，六架B-2轰炸机向福尔多核设施投下了12枚碉堡克星炸弹，海军潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕发射了30枚巡航导弹。该官员还表示，一架B-2轰炸机也向纳坦兹投下了两枚枚碉堡克星炸弹。美国中央司令部负责中东地区的行动，这次打击是该司令部多年筹划的最终实施。但几乎没有人预料到这些计划会如此突然地执行。美国的打击发生在以色列对伊朗发动攻击一周多后。 Iran responded with missile barrages of its own, as well as offers to resume negotiations over its nuclear development program. 伊朗用导弹回击了以色列的行动，也提出了重启有关其核研发计划的谈判。 Iran built the centrifuge facility at Fordo to prevent it from being attacked. In 1981, using F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, Israel bombed a nuclear facility near Baghdad as part of its effort to stop Iraq from acquiring nuclear weapons — a strike that basically stopped Iraq’s weapons program. That facility was above ground. 伊朗在福尔多建造离心机设施是为了防止遭受打击。以色列曾在1981年使用F-15和F-16战斗机轰炸了巴格达附近的一处地面核设施，作为阻止伊拉克获得核武器努力的一部分，那次打击基本上摧毁了伊拉克的核武器计划。 In its strikes on Iran, Israel has hit aboveground nuclear sites, but not Fordo. Only the United States has the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator — the formal name for the bomb needed to reach the site. Previous American administrations have refused to give the bomb to Israel. Israel’s Air Force also does not have the warplanes needed to carry it. 以色列在这次行动中也打击了伊朗的地面核设施，但未触及福尔多。只有美国拥有GBU-57巨型钻地弹（能打击福尔多设施的炸弹的正式名称）。美国的前几届政府一直拒绝把这种炸弹提供给以色列。以色列空军也没有能运载这种炸弹所需的战机。 The bombs have thick steel cases and contain a smaller amount of explosives than similarly sized general-purpose bombs. The heavy casings allow the munition to stay intact as it punches through soil, rock or concrete before detonating. 这种炸弹具有加厚钢外壳，其装药量低于同等体积的常规炸弹。重型外壳让炸弹在穿过土壤、岩石或混凝土直至引爆前完好无损。 Iran has many ways to retaliate, including naval assets and other capabilities it would need to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could pin any U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf, American military officials say. Iranian officials have threatened to mine the strait if the United States joined Israel’s attack on the country. 美国军方官员指出，伊朗有许多报复的手段，包括动用海军力量和其他能力封锁霍尔木兹海峡，此举可能使美国在波斯湾的海军舰艇不能动弹。伊朗官员已威胁说，如果美国加入到以色列打击伊朗的行动中来，他们将在霍尔木兹海峡布雷。 The narrow 90-mile waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean is a key shipping route. A quarter of the world’s oil and 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas passes through it. Mining the choke point would cause gas prices to soar. 这条连接波斯湾和外海的狭窄水道长约150公里，是一条重要的货运航道。全球25%的石油和20%的液化天然气经此运输。在这个咽喉要地布雷将导致天然气价格飙升。 Earlier this week, American minesweepers and other Navy vessels began dispersing to avoid attack. 本周早些时候，美国的扫雷舰和其他海军舰艇已开始分散部署，以避免被袭。 In his first term, Mr. Trump authorized a drone strike that killed a powerful Iranian general in Baghdad. Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles fired at American troops in Iraq, leaving some 110 troops with traumatic brain injuries and unintentionally hitting a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people aboard. 特朗普上次担任总统期间曾授权了一次无人机空袭，打死了一名在巴格达访问的伊朗高级将领。作为报复，伊朗向驻伊拉克美军发射了大量导弹，给约110名美军士兵留下了脑外伤，并意外击中了一架乌克兰客机，导致机上176人全部遇难。 Iran would not need much preparation to attack U.S. air and naval bases in the region. The Iranian military has missile bases within easy striking range of Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. 伊朗不需要做太多准备就能打击中东地区的美国空军和海军基地。伊朗军队的导弹基地打击范围轻松涵盖巴林、卡塔尔以及阿联酋。 Indeed, American officials said earlier this week that Iran had prepared missiles and other military equipment for strikes on U.S. bases in the region. 其实，美国官员本周早些时候就已表示，伊朗早已为打击中东地区的美国基地做好了导弹和其他军事设施准备。 Anticipating such an attack, American forces in recent days have been fortifying air defenses. On Saturday, American officials said that additional U.S. Air Force F-22, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets from the United States had transited bases in Europe and were positioned in the Middle East, with more coming. 为了应对此类攻击，美军已在最近几天加强了空中防御。美国官员已在周六表示，美国空军从本土增派的F-22、F-16、F-35战机经欧洲基地中转，已部署到了中东，还有更多的战斗机要去那里。 The United States has already sent about three dozen refueling aircraft to Europe that could be used to assist those fighters in protecting American bases. 美国已将近40架加油机派往欧洲，它们可为那些战斗机提供支援以保护美军基地。 In addition, the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, with 60 aircraft aboard, including F-35 fighter jets, is currently steaming in the Arabian Sea. A second carrier, the Nimitz, canceled a port call in Vietnam earlier this week to rush to the region, and is expected to arrive in the next few days, U.S. officials said. 此外，“卡尔·文森”号航空母舰目前正在阿拉伯海快速行驶，该航母载有包括F-35战斗机在内的60架飞机。美国官员说，另一艘航空母舰“尼米兹”号已在本周早些时候取消了在越南港口的停靠，正在赶往中东地区，预计将在未来几天到达。 Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。 Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID PIERSON, KEITH BRADSHER, BERRY WANG2025年6月20日以色列周一袭击伊朗国家广播公司后，德黑兰上空硝烟弥漫。 Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency, via Reuters When China helped negotiate a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, it hailed the breakthrough as a victory for Chinese diplomacy and a sign that America’s chief geopolitical rival had emerged as a major power broker in the Middle East. 2023年帮助伊朗和沙特阿拉伯谈判达成和平协议时，北京将这一突破誉为中国外交的胜利，表明美国的主要地缘政治对手已经成为中东地区重要的权力掮客。 But as President Trump openly ponders deploying American forces to join Israel in attacking Iran, the limits of China’s clout in the region are coming into focus. 但随着特朗普总统公开考虑部署美国军队，与以色列一起攻击伊朗，中国在该地区影响力的局限性也逐渐凸显。 China has much to lose from a runaway conflict. Half of the country’s oil imports move in tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s southern coast. And Beijing has long counted on Tehran, its closest partner in the region, to push back against American influence. 一场失控的冲突会让中国损失惨重。中国一半的石油进口通过油轮，经由伊朗南部海岸的霍尔木兹海峡运输。长期以来，北京一直指望其在该地区最亲密的伙伴德黑兰来抵制美国的影响力。 But despite those strategic interests, China, which has little sway over the Trump administration, is unlikely to come to Iran’s defense militarily, especially if the United States gets involved. 但是，尽管有这些战略利益，对特朗普政府几乎没有影响力的中国不太可能在军事上保护伊朗，尤其是在美国介入的情况下。 “The reality is they don’t actually have the capability to insert Chinese forces to defend Iran’s installations,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “What they would prefer to do is very quietly provide some material support, some rhetorical support and maybe some humanitarian aid.” “现实是，他们实际上没有能力派遣中国军队来保卫伊朗的设施，”华盛顿美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀说。“他们更愿意做的是低调地提供一些物质支持，一些口头上的支持，也许还有一些人道主义援助。” Though China favors stability in the Middle East, it could also gain if the United States gets roped into a prolonged war there, which might divert American troops, ships and other military resources away from Asia. 尽管希望中东保持稳定，但如果美国被拖入一场旷日持久的战争，中国也会受益，因为这可能会使美国的军队、舰船和其他军事资源从亚洲转移出去。 Whether Mr. Trump decides to strike Iran will offer lessons for Beijing that could shape its own geopolitical strategy. China will be trying to understand Mr. Trump’s approach to foreign policy and his willingness to use force. The outcome could influence Beijing’s assessment of whether the United States would come to the defense of Taiwan, the self-governed island that Beijing claims, should China decide to invade it. 无论特朗普是否决定打击伊朗，都将为北京提供可能影响其地缘政治战略的教训。中国将试图了解特朗普的外交政策方针，以及他使用武力的意愿。其结果可能会影响中国政府对美国是否会在中国决定入侵台湾的情况下保卫台湾的评估（台湾是中国声称拥有主权的自治岛屿）。 Despite China’s close relationship with Iran, its rhetoric about the current conflict has been strikingly measured at the highest levels. After its top leader, Xi Jinping, called for a cease-fire during a call with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Thursday, a summary of the call released by the Chinese government did not overtly criticize Israel for violating Iran’s sovereignty. 尽管与伊朗关系密切，中国最高层对当前冲突的言辞却十分谨慎。中国最高领导人习近平周四与俄罗斯总统普京通话时呼吁停火，但中国政府发布的通话摘要并未公开批评以色列侵犯伊朗主权。 Mr. Xi also refrained from directly urging the United States not to attack Iran, saying only that the “international community, especially major powers that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict, should make efforts to promote the cooling of the situation, rather than the opposite.” 习近平也没有直接敦促美国不要攻击伊朗，只是说“国际社会特别是对冲突当事方有特殊影响的大国要为推动局势降温作出努力，而不是相反”。 中国最高领导人习近平并未明确批评以色列侵犯伊朗主权。 When China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, called his counterpart in Israel, he expressed Beijing’s opposition to Israel’s attacks, according to the Chinese summary of the call. But he stopped short of saying that China “condemns” them, as he had in a call with Iran. 据中方的通话摘要，中国最高外交官王毅致电以色列外长，表达了北京对以色列袭击的反对。但他没有像他在与伊朗通话时所说的那样说中国“谴责”以色列。 In another call, with the foreign minister of Oman, Mr. Wang said that “we cannot sit idly by and watch the regional situation slide into an unknown abyss,” according to a Chinese government statement. But it is unclear what, if any, specific efforts China has made to find a diplomatic solution. In any case, Israel would likely be skeptical of China’s neutrality as a mediator because of its alignment with Iran and engagement with Hamas, the Palestinian ally of Iran that attacked Israel in October 2023. 根据中国政府的声明，在与阿曼外长的另一次通话中，王毅说，“不能坐视地区局势滑向未知的深渊。”但目前尚不清楚中国是否为寻求外交解决方案做出了具体努力。无论如何，以色列可能会对中国作为调解人的中立态度持怀疑态度，因为中国与伊朗结盟，并与伊朗的巴勒斯坦盟友、在2023年10月袭击以色列的哈马斯接触。 China’s efforts, at least in public, have been focused on evacuating more than 1,000 of its citizens from Israel and Iran. 中国的努力，至少是公开的努力，都集中在从以色列和伊朗撤离1000多名中国公民上。 “Beijing is scrambling to keep up with the rapid pace of events and is prioritizing looking after Chinese citizens and assets in the region rather than any sort of broader diplomatic initiative,” said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official at the White House and the State Department during President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s administration. “北京正在努力跟上事态的快速发展，并优先考虑照顾在该地区的中国公民和资产，而不是任何更广泛的外交倡议，”拜登总统执政期间在白宫和国务院担任中国政策高级官员的朱利安·格维茨说。 Discussions of the conflict on China’s heavily censored online forums have largely centered on the poor performance of Iran’s military and security apparatus, though some participants have noted the limits of China’s support for Iran. 在中国受到严格审查的网络论坛上，关于这场冲突的讨论主要集中在伊朗军事和安全机构的糟糕表现上，尽管一些参与者指出，中国对伊朗的支持是有限的。 Zhu Zhaoyi, a Middle East expert at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said in a post that China could not provide Iran with “unconditional protection” and confront the United States and Israel militarily. He said Beijing could only exert pressure through the United Nations Security Council, of which China is a permanent member. 北京对外经济贸易大学的中东问题专家朱兆一在一篇文章中说，中国不可能向伊朗提供“无条件保护”，也不可能在军事上对抗美国和以色列。他说，北京只能通过联合国安理会施加压力，中国是安理会常任理事国。 “The turmoil in the Middle East is both a challenge and a test for China,” Mr. Zhu wrote. “中东动荡对中国既是挑战也是考验，”朱兆一写道。 China’s tempered response resembles that of its like-minded partner, Russia, which has done little more than issue statements of support for Iran, despite having received badly needed military aid from Tehran for its war in Ukraine. Both Beijing and Moscow were also seen as bystanders last year when their shared partner, the Assad regime, was overthrown in Syria. 中国的温和反应，和与其志同道合的伙伴俄罗斯相似，尽管俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中从德黑兰得到了急需的军事援助，但除了发表支持伊朗的声明外，中国几乎没有采取任何行动。去年，当双方共同的伙伴阿萨德政权在叙利亚被推翻时，北京和莫斯科也被认为是在袖手旁观。 Their relative absence raises questions about the cohesiveness of what some in Washington have called the “Axis of Upheaval” — the quartet of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, which have drawn closer diplomatically and militarily around a common opposition to the U.S.-dominated world order. 两国的相对缺席让人们对华盛顿一些人所称的“动荡轴心”——中国、俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜这四个国家——的凝聚力产生了质疑。这四个国家在外交和军事上越来越紧密地团结在一起，共同反对美国主导的世界秩序。 Of the four nations, only China is deeply embedded in the global economy, which means it has much to lose from turmoil in the Middle East. It buys virtually all of Iran’s exported oil, at a discount, using clandestine tanker fleets to evade U.S. sanctions. And its ships depend on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to transport additional oil from Gulf states. 在这四个国家中，只有中国深深地融入了全球经济，这意味着中东的动荡将给该国带来惨重损失。中国以折扣价购买了伊朗几乎所有的出口石油，利用秘密油轮船队规避美国的制裁。它的船只如果从海湾国家运输更多的石油，必须安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。 Higher energy prices would present another major headache for Beijing, which is trying to turn its sluggish economy around. 对于正在努力扭转经济疲软局面的中国政府来说，能源价格上涨将是另一个令人头疼的问题。 Besides energy, Iran provides China with a crucial foothold in the Middle East for advancing its interests and countering the United States, which has tens of thousands of troops across the region. Beijing has cultivated closer ties with Gulf states for the same reasons. 除了能源之外，伊朗还为中国在中东提供了一个重要的立足点，以促进其利益和对抗在该地区拥有数万军队的美国。出于同样的原因，北京与海湾国家建立了更密切的关系。 Chinese analysts often argue that Beijing is an attractive mediator in the Middle East because it will not lecture other countries about issues like human rights. “It’s the only major power trusted by rival factions in the region, capable of achieving breakthroughs where the U.S. cannot,” said Wen Jing, a Middle East expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 中国的分析人士经常说，北京在中东是一个有吸引力的调解人，因为它不会在人权等问题上对其他国家说教。清华大学中东问题专家文晶说：“中国是该地区敌对派系唯一信任的大国，有能力在美国无法实现的领域取得突破。” But some Western analysts say China played only a small role in the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, toward the end of those negotiations. Washington has also been frustrated by Beijing’s reluctance to put pressure on Iran to stop Houthi rebels from attacking ships off the coast of Yemen, except in cases involving Chinese vessels. 但一些西方分析人士说，在伊朗和沙特阿拉伯的谈判中，中国只是在最后扮演了一个并重要的角色。华盛顿还对北京方面不愿向伊朗施压、要求其阻止胡塞叛军在也门沿海袭击船只——除非涉及中国船只——感到失望。 That unwillingness to apply pressure on its partners undercuts China’s standing in the Middle East, said Barbara Leaf, a former assistant secretary of state for near Eastern affairs at the State Department who is now a senior adviser at Arnold and Porter, a Washington-based law firm. 美国国务院前近东事务助理国务卿、现为华盛顿律师事务所Arnold and Porter高级顾问的芭芭拉·利夫说，中国不愿对其合作伙伴施加压力，削弱了中国在中东的地位。 “Nobody is saying, ‘We better call up Beijing and see what they can do here,’ because Beijing has played a purely commercial and economic role,” Ms. Leaf said, describing the attitudes of Middle Eastern officials with whom she has spoken over the years. “没有人说，‘我们最好给北京打电话，看看他们能在这里做些什么，’因为北京一直扮演着纯粹的商业和经济角色，”利夫描述多年来与她交谈过的中东官员的态度。 “They just sort of take it as a given that China is going to look out for China,” she said. 她说：“他们会不假思索地觉得，中国只会为中国自己着想。” David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
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