纪思道2025年5月22日 The question I get most often is: What can we do to take our country back? 我最常被问到的问题是:我们如何才能夺回自己的国家? So let me try to answer, drawing on lessons from other countries that have faced authoritarian challenges. 那么,让我利用从其他面临威权挑战的国家那里获得的经验,看看能否回答这个问题。 The funny thing is that there’s a playbook for overturning autocrats. It was written here in America, by a rumpled political scientist I knew named Gene Sharp. While little known in the United States before his death in 2018, he was celebrated abroad, and his tool kit was used by activists in Eastern Europe, in the Middle East and across Asia. His books, emphasizing nonviolent protests that become contagious, have been translated into at least 34 languages. 有意思的是,推翻专制政权这件事还有战术书可用。书是在美国写的,作者我还认识,他就是不修边幅的政治学家吉恩·夏普。尽管生前在美国籍籍无名,他在国外得到很高的评价,他提供的手段被东欧、中东和亚洲各地的活动人士取用。他的多部作品都强调具有感染力的非暴力抗议,已被至少翻译成34种语言。 “I would rather have this book than the nuclear bomb,” a former Lithuanian defense minister once said of Sharp’s writing. “相比核弹,我更愿意拥有这本书,”立陶宛的一位前国防部长曾如此评价夏普的著作。 A soft-spoken scholar working from his Boston apartment, Sharp recommended 198 actions that were often performative, ranging from hunger strikes to sex boycotts to mock funerals. 夏普是一位谦和的学者,在位于波士顿的寓所里工作,他提出了198项往往具有表演性质的行动,从绝食抗议到性抵制,再到模拟葬礼,不一而足。 “Dictators are never as strong as they tell you they are,” he once said, “and people are never as weak as they think they are.” 他曾经说过,“独裁者从来不像他们宣称的那样强大,而人民也从来不像自己以为的那样软弱。” The Democrats’ message last year revolved in part around earnest appeals to democratic values, but one of the lessons from anti-authoritarian movements around the world is that such abstract arguments aren’t terribly effective. Rather, three other approaches, drawing on Sharp’s work, seem to work better. 民主党去年传达的信息部分围绕着对民主价值观的真诚呼吁,但从世界各地的反威权运动中得出的一个教训是,这种抽象的论点并不十分有效。事实上,借鉴夏普的研究成果,其他三种方法似乎效果来得更好。 The first is mockery and humor — preferably salacious. 首先是嘲讽和幽默——最好是黄段子。 Wang Dan, a leader of China’s 1989 Tiananmen Square democracy demonstrations, told me that in China, puns often “resonate more than solemn political slogans.” 1989年天安门民主示威运动的学生领袖之一王丹跟我说过,在中国,双关语往往“比严肃的政治口号更能引发共鸣”。 The Chinese internet for a time delighted in grass-mud horses — which may puzzle future zoologists exploring Chinese archives, for there is no such animal. It’s all a bawdy joke: In Chinese, “grass-mud horse” sounds very much like a curse, one so vulgar it would make your screen blush. But on its face it is an innocent homonym about an animal and thus is used to mock China’s censors. “草泥马”曾经在中国的网络上风行一时——这可能会让未来研究中国档案的动物学家感到困惑,因为根本没有这样一种动物。这其实是个粗俗的玩笑话:在中文里,“草泥马”和一句脏话音近,其露骨程度足以让你的屏幕都感到不好意思。但它表面上的意思是一种天真无邪的动物,因此被用来捉弄中国的网络审查员。 Shops in China peddled dolls of grass-mud horses (resembling alpacas), and a faux nature documentary described their habits. One Chinese song recounted the epic conflict between grass-mud horses and river crabs — because “river crab” is a play on the Chinese term for censorship. It optimistically declared the horses triumphant. 中国的商家出售形似羊驼的草泥马玩偶,一部伪纪录片还煞有介事地描述它的习性。更有中文歌曲描绘了草泥马与河蟹的史诗之战——因“河蟹”是“和谐”的谐音。这首歌最终以草泥马获胜告终。 “They defeated the river crabs in order to protect their grassland,” it declared. “River crabs forever disappeared.” “他们为了卧草不被吃掉,打败了河蟹,河蟹从此消失,”歌中唱道。 Humor puts autocrats in a difficult position. They look ridiculous if they crack down on jokes but look weak if they ignore them. What’s a dictator to do? 幽默让威权者陷入两难境地:如果镇压笑话,就显得荒谬可笑;如果置之不理又显得软弱。独裁者有何计可施? Take President Xi Jinping of China, who is sometimes mocked for resembling Winnie-the-Pooh. So China bans Pooh bear images and movies — giving people more reason to laugh at him. 就拿中国国家主席习近平来说,有时人们嘲笑他长得像小熊维尼。因此,中国禁止了维尼熊的图像和电影,但这让人们有更多理由来嘲笑他。 Neither Winnie-the-Pooh nor a cavalry of grass-mud horses will topple Xi, but wit did help overthrow the Serbian despot Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. A dissident group called Otpor was so modest in size that protests by it wouldn’t have been noticed. But Otpor, relying heavily on Sharp’s work, engaged in street theater that got people buzzing: In Belgrade it put Milosevic’s image on a barrel and encouraged passers-by to whack it with a bat. 无论是小熊维尼还是草泥马大军,都不足以推翻习近平。但正是这种机智在2000年成功推翻了塞尔维亚的独裁者米洛舍维奇。当时名为“抵抗”(Otpor)的异议团体规模极小,它的抗议活动根本不会引起人们的注意。然而,该组织深度借鉴夏普的理论,通过街头剧场引发舆论轰动——他们在贝尔格莱德街头放置印有米洛舍维奇头像的木桶,鼓动路人挥棒击打它。 “Seeing a group of devil-may-care young people ridiculing Milosevic made onlookers smile,” Tina Rosenberg writes in her book “Join the Club,” “and encouraged them to think about the regime, and their own role, in a different light.” “看到一群不管不顾的年轻人嘲笑米洛舍维奇,围观者都会心一笑,”蒂娜·罗森伯格在她的《加入俱乐部》一书中写道。“这也鼓励他们从另一个角度思考这个政权和他们自己的角色。” Rosenberg quoted one Otpor leader as saying, “It was a great party all the time.” This made the protests trendy and cool, the ridicule grew contagious, and eventually the opposition became a mass movement that forced Milosevic to resign. 罗森伯格援引一个“抵抗”组织领袖的说法:“那就像一场永不散场的狂欢。”这使得抗议活动变得时髦、酷炫,嘲笑越来越具有感染力,最终反对运动变成了一场迫使米洛舍维奇下台的群众运动。 A second approach that has often succeeded is emphasizing not democracy as such but rather highlighting the leaders’ corruption, hypocrisy and economic mismanagement. 另一种屡试不爽的策略是不强调民主本身,而是聚焦统治者的腐败、虚伪与经济管理不善。 Critics usually have plenty of ammunition when pointing to hypocrisy, for authoritarians tend to preen as moral guardians while the lack of accountability often leads to, er, lapses. One example: The police chief in Tehran, who was in charge of enforcing the Islamic dress code for women, was reportedly found naked in a brothel with six equally naked prostitutes. 批评者在指出虚伪时通常有充足的弹药,因为专制者往往以道德卫士自居,而缺乏问责制往往会导致,呃,行为失检。举例来说:据报道,德黑兰负责执行伊斯兰妇女着装规定的警察局长被发现在一家妓院中赤身裸体,与六名同样赤身裸体的妓女在一起。 Corruption is also usually an easy target, because as autocrats become increasingly powerful, they and their family members often decide to enrich themselves: Wherever there is authoritarianism, there is corruption. 腐败问题通常也是现成的靶子,因为随着专制者的权力越来越大,他们及其家庭成员往往会中饱私囊:专制所及之处必生腐败。 Chinese officials understand the sensitivity of the issue: They have told me that they’re fine with journalists like me criticizing the Communist Party for repression or bad policies, but can we please just lay off reporting on the finances of party leaders (like the former prime minister whose family was so hard working that it rose from poverty and amassed at least $2.7 billion)? 中国官员深谙此事的敏感性:他们曾向我坦言,可以容忍像我这样的记者批评共产党的镇压政策或决策失误,但能不能就不要再报道领导人的财务状况(比如那位前总理,家人勤勉致富,至少积聚了27亿美元资产)? One of the people who seemed to scare President Vladimir Putin the most was Aleksei Navalny, a master of mockery who posted videos of extravagances such as Putin’s apparent $1 billion pleasure palace — and who, when imprisoned in the gulag, announced that he had tried to unionize the guards. 阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼似乎曾是最让普京总统恐惧的人之一,他是一位嘲讽大师,曾在网上发布普京据说耗资10亿美元建造的豪华宫殿等奢靡之物的视频。在被关进古拉格后,他还宣布自己曾试图让看守们组成工会。 The third approach that has often succeeded is focusing on the power of one — an individual tragedy rather than a sea of oppression. Protesters against apartheid used to employ the slogan, “Free South African political prisoners,” but that never got much traction. Then they switched to “Free Nelson Mandela,” and we know the rest. 第三种行之有效的策略是聚焦个体的力量——用个人悲剧取代大规模的压迫。反种族隔离运动曾使用“释放南非政治犯”的口号,但收效甚微,直至改为“释放曼德拉”才扭转乾坤,之后的故事就世人皆知了。 Likewise, the Arab Spring began in 2010 with a single wrenching story: A 26-year-old Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire to protest corruption — and millions of other Arabs demonstrated against their rulers. 无独有偶,阿拉伯之春的爆发亦始于2010年的一桩个体悲剧:一名26岁的突尼斯街头小贩自焚以抗议覆盖,继而引发数百万阿拉伯民众上街反抗统治者。 In Iran, six months of protests started in 2022 when a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died after being arrested by police for wearing her hijab improperly. “With her killing, people lost their patience and poured into the streets,” Nasrin Sotoudeh, an Iranian lawyer known for her defense of human rights, told me. 2022年,伊朗持续半年的抗议浪潮起缘于年轻女子玛莎·阿米尼因头巾佩戴不当遭警方逮捕后死亡。“她的遇害彻底击穿了民众的忍耐底线,”伊朗知名人权律师纳斯林·索托德告诉我,“人们如潮水般涌上街头。” Sotoudeh noted that even a single creative protest by an ordinary person can ignite a broader movement. She cited the woman who in 2017 stood on a Tehran street, removed her head scarf and waved it at the end of a stick; the incident went viral and began the “girls of revolution street” movement to end the compulsory hijab. And while the hijab law remains in place, women now sometimes get away with ignoring it. 索托德指出,即使是一个普通人的一次创造性抗议也能点燃更广泛的运动。她举例说,2017年,一名妇女站在德黑兰街头,摘下头巾,扎在一根棍子上挥舞;这一事件在网络上广为流传,并掀起了“革命街女孩”运动,以结束强制戴头巾的做法。虽然头巾法依然存在,但现在妇女有时可以无视它。 We often think of politicians as the natural leaders of such movements. But it’s striking how often the stars have been from other worlds. A shipyard electrician in Poland named Lech Walesa. A Czech playwright named Vaclav Havel. Female lawyers in Iran. A female engineering student in Sudan. A widow and housewife in the Philippines named Corazon Aquino. 我们通常认为政治人物才是此类运动的天然领袖。但令人吃惊的是,运动的明星往往来自其他领域。在波兰是一位名叫瓦文萨的造船厂电工。在捷克是剧作家哈维尔。在伊朗是女律师群体。在苏丹是一名学工程的女学生。在菲律宾是丧夫的家庭主妇科拉松·阿基诺。 There’s no simple formula for challenging authoritarianism. But these approaches have enjoyed a measure of success abroad and may be ones we Americans could learn from. 挑战威权主义没有简单的公式。但这些方法在国外取得了一定程度的成功,可能是我们美国人可以学习借鉴的。 In my next column, I’ll look at how such a strategy might unfold in the United States. 在我的下一篇专栏中,我将探讨此类策略在美国可以如何展开。 纪思道(Nicholas Kristof) 2001起成为时报专栏作家,曾两次获得普利策奖。他最新出版的回忆录名为《追逐希望:一名记者的报道生涯》(“Chasing Hope: A Reporter’s Life”)。欢迎在Twitter上关注他。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
EPHRAT LIVNI2025年5月22日林昶佐于周一被任命为台湾驻芬兰代表,图为2019年他与闪灵乐团在东京演出时的情景。 Nicolas Datiche/LightRocket, via Getty Images Diplomatic appointments do not usually excite the world’s metalheads. But when Taiwan on Monday named the frontman for a band known as “the Black Sabbath of Asia” as its envoy to the heavy metal mecca of Finland, rockers on multiple continents rejoiced. 外交任命通常不会引起全球金属乐迷的兴趣。但在周一,一支被誉为“亚洲黑色安息日”的乐队的主唱将作为台湾政府代表派驻金属音乐圣地芬兰,世界各地的摇滚乐迷为之欢呼。 “Because if you’re gonna be an ambassador to any Scandinavian country, you better be in a metal band,” the Brooklyn-based publication Metal Injection wrote. “因为如果你要成为北欧国家的大使,你最好是金属乐队成员,”布鲁克林刊物《金属注射》(Metal Injection)写道。 The choice of Freddy Lim, founder and lead singer of Chthonic, by President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan appears apt: Finland has the most metal bands per capita, with about 80 for every 100,000 citizens — a data point often cited by metal fans. And Mr. Lim already has an affinity for the country, where his band has played in major cities and performed with Finnish musicians. 台湾总统赖清德选择闪灵乐团创办人兼主唱林昶佐担任代表,可谓恰如其分:芬兰是世界上人均金属乐队最多的国家——每10万人中大约就有80支金属乐队,这一数据常为金属乐迷津津乐道。而林昶佐本就对这个国家情有独钟,闪灵乐团曾在芬兰多个主要城市演出,并与芬兰音乐人同台表演。 “Working with my partners in the Finnish music industry for a long time has made me have a special feeling for this country,” Mr. Lim said in a social media post on Monday, noting that his band had released four albums with the Finnish-founded label Spinefarm Records. 林昶佐在周一的一则社交媒体帖文中表示:“与芬兰音乐产业伙伴们长期一同打拼的日子,让我一直对这个国家有着特殊的感情。”他指出,闪灵乐团与芬兰人创立的厂牌Spinefarm Records合作发行了四张专辑。 His selection as Taiwan’s envoy is not based on musical fame alone. Taiwan’s foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung, said on Monday that Mr. Lim was chosen for his human rights work and international exchange experience: He served as a national legislator from 2016 to 2024 and was chairman of Amnesty International in Taiwan from 2010 to 2014. 他之所以被选为台湾驻外代表,并不仅仅是因为音乐上的知名度。台湾外交部长林佳龙周一表示,之所以选择林昶佐,是因为他在人权事务上的投入以及丰富的国际交流经验:他曾于2016年至2024年担任立法委员,并于2010年至2014年担任国际特赦组织台湾分会会长。 Mr. Lim, 49, formed Chthonic (pronounced THON-ik) around 1995, creating a heavy metal mythology for the band using elements of Taiwan’s local lore instead of the pagan and satanic imagery of some Western bands. The band’s 2005 album, “Seediq Bale” (Real Person), which was released in the United States in 2006 and worldwide the next year, brought the band international attention. It got Chthonic a spot in Ozzfest — on a tour founded and headlined by the British heavy metal legend Ozzy Osbourne — playing 24 major American cities. The band also toured Europe that year. 现年49岁的林昶佐在1995年前后组建了闪灵乐团,与一些西方乐团所采用的异端或撒旦意象不同,他为乐团创造出一种融合台湾本土传说的重金属神话体系。乐团于2005年推出的专辑《赛德克巴莱》(“真正的人”)于2006年在美国发行,次年在全球发行,为闪灵赢得了国际关注。该专辑让闪灵登上了Ozzfest的舞台——这是由英国重金属传奇人物奥兹·奥斯本创办并领衔的巡演,闪灵在其中巡演了美国24个主要城市。同年,乐团还进行了欧洲巡演。 Chthonic used its music and performances to call attention to the struggles of Taiwan, a democratically governed island of 23 million about 100 miles off China’s mainland. Beijing considers the island a renegade province and pressures other countries to keep it out of international bodies. 闪灵乐团通过音乐和演出呼吁外界关注台湾的处境。这座拥有2300万人口、实行民主治理的岛屿距离中国大陆约160公里。北京将台湾视为一个叛乱的省份,并施压其他国家将其排除在国际组织之外。 In 2007, The International Herald Tribune wrote that Chthonic used “loud music and diabolical face paint to bring attention to its home government’s exclusion from the United Nations.” 2007年,《国际先驱论坛报》曾撰文指出,闪灵乐团用“震耳欲聋的音乐和魔鬼般的面部彩绘来引起人们对其政府被排除在联合国之外的关注”。 Mr. Lim explained at the time how he presents the issue onstage to audiences. “I usually say: ‘The U.N. considers themselves to represent all nations of the world. But Taiwan is limited from its membership, so Taiwan represents the underworld, like you guys!’ When I say, ‘Underworld,’ they go crazy.” 林昶佐当时解释了他如何在舞台上向观众呈现这一议题:“我通常会说:‘联合国自认为代表全世界的国家,但台湾却被限制加入,所以台湾代表的是冥界,就像你们一样!’当我说出‘冥界’的时候,观众都会疯狂欢呼。” Mr. Lim highlighted his varied experiences in his statement about his new role, saying they had given him “a sense of mission in Taiwan’s international affairs.” 林昶佐在谈到自己新职务的声明中强调了他多样的经历,并表示这些经历赋予他“对台湾国际事务的一种使命感”。 His official turn to politics began in 2014, when hundreds of students occupied Taiwan’s Parliament to protest a trade deal with China that they feared would make Taiwan more vulnerable to Beijing’s influence. Students took to the streets in what became known as the Sunflower Movement, and Mr. Lim was among the best-known participants. 林昶佐正式涉足政治是在2014年,当时数百名学生占领了台湾立法院,抗议一项与中国的贸易协议,他们担心该协议会使台湾更容易受到北京的影响。这场抗议演变为“太阳花运动”,学生走上街头,而林昶佐则是最知名的参与者之一。 By then, the musician had already established himself as a vocal advocate, someone who had literally been screaming about Taiwan for years. 那时,这位音乐人早已是台湾议题上直言不讳的倡议者,他多年来几乎是在用呐喊的方式为台湾发声。 In 2015, Mr. Lim founded the New Power Party and secured a parliamentary seat the next year. But in 2019, he ran as an independent and in later joined the governing Democratic Progressive Party. 2015年,林昶佐成立了时代力量党,并在次年成功获得了立法院席位。但在2019年,他以独立候选人身份参选,随后加入了执政的民进党。 As a legislator, he has been involved in foreign affairs and often held late-night meetings online to discuss issues of “democracy, human rights and security” with counterparts abroad, he said in his statement. At Amnesty International, he added, he worked “hand in hand” with branches in Finland and beyond on human rights issues. Mr. Lim did not respond to a request for comment. 他在声明中表示,作为立法委员,他参与了外交事务,并经常举行深夜的在线会议,与国外官员讨论“民主、人权和安全”问题。他还说,在国际特赦组织任职期间,自己与芬兰及其他地区的分支机构在推动人权问题上“携手合作”。林昶佐并未回应置评请求。 Though heavy metal fans may be onboard with his appointment, several legislators from opposition parties in Taiwan expressed doubts. They note that Mr. Lim said he did not serve compulsory military service because of an anxiety disorder, and they question whether he was suitable for the position. 虽然重金属乐迷可能支持他的任命,但台湾一些在野党立法委员表达了疑虑。他们指出,林昶佐曾表示自己因焦虑症未履行兵役,并质疑他是否适合担任这一职务。 His appointment comes as Taiwan’s president has taken a tougher stance on China, raising criticism from some who say it’s a risky position since a geopolitically fickle President Trump may not offer steadfast support for the island. 他的任命正值台湾总统对中国采取更强硬立场之际,这引起了一些人的批评,认为这是一个冒险的立场,因为地缘政治上善变的特朗普总统可能不会坚定地支持台湾。 And China’s global squeeze on the government in Taipei is still in effect. On the day Mr. Lim’s new role was announced, member states in the World Health Organization rejected a proposal to invite Taiwan to an annual meeting in Geneva after China opposed it. 中国在全球范围内对台北政府的挤压仍在继续。在林昶佐新职务宣布的当天,世界卫生组织成员国在中国的反对下拒绝了邀请台湾参加在日内瓦举行的年度会议的提议。 In his statement about the new role, Mr. Lim said that Taiwan and Finland had made advances in economic and trade cooperation and other areas in recent years, and that he would continue to build “on this solid foundation” and “strive for stronger support from Finland for Taiwan.” 在关于新职务的声明中,林昶佐表示,近年来台湾与芬兰在经济、贸易合作及其他领域取得了进展,他将继续“在这一坚实基础上”努力,并“争取芬兰对台湾更坚定的支持”。 The metalhead turned politician — who has returned to making music — signed off with the Finnish word for cheers: “Kippis!” 从金属人转变为政治人的林昶佐——他已重新开始创作音乐——以芬兰语“Kippis!”(“干杯”)一词结束了他的声明。 Amy Chang Chien和Amy Qin对本文有报道贡献。 Ephrat Livni是时报“交易录”(DealBook) 新闻简报记者,常驻华盛顿。 翻译:Ziyu Qing 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
ALEXANDRA ALTER2025年5月22日 When four police officers arrived at Yiyun Li’s home in Princeton, N.J., late on a Friday afternoon last February, she didn’t wait for instructions to sit down. As soon as the detective spoke — “There is no good way to say this” — she sank into a chair in her living room, gesturing for her husband to join her. 去年2月的一个周五下午,当四名警察来到李翊云位于新泽西州普林斯顿的家时,她没等有人提示就自己坐了下来。听到警官说到“这件事不知该如何开口”,她身子一沉,坐在起居室的椅子上,示意让丈夫过来。 Li already sensed the devastating news they had come to deliver, even though she couldn’t fathom it. The detective confirmed the worst. Her son James, a freshman at Princeton University, had died, struck by a train near the campus. 李翊云已经感觉到他们带来的消息将是个晴天霹雳,尽管她无法想象是什么。警官证实了最坏的情况。她的儿子詹姆斯,普林斯顿大学的大一新生,在校园附近被火车撞死。 The policemen said they were investigating the circumstances surrounding his death and avoided calling it a suicide. But Li and her husband knew it wasn’t an accident — that James had chosen to end his life, in the same way his older brother had. 警察说正在调查他的死因,并避免称其为自杀。但李翊云和丈夫知道这不是意外——詹姆斯选择结束自己的生命,用了和他哥哥一样的方式。 A little more than six years earlier, James’s brother Vincent died by suicide at age 16, also killed by an oncoming train nearby. That night in 2017, Li had arrived home to find two detectives waiting for her. The police suggested she sit down before they told her about Vincent, which is why she did so instinctively when they came to deliver the news about James. 六年多前,詹姆斯的哥哥文森特自杀身亡,年仅16岁,同样死于附近一列迎面而来的火车。2017年的那个晚上,李翊云回到家,发现两名警官在等她。警察建议她先坐下来,然后再告诉她文森特的事,所以,当他们来告知詹姆斯的消息时,她本能地坐了下来。 After the officers left, Li and her husband, Dapeng Li, sat in their living room, stunned. She felt like time was collapsing around her, as though she was stuck in an eternal present. 警察离开后,李翊云和丈夫李大鹏(音)坐在客厅里,目瞪口呆。她觉得时间在她身边崩塌,仿佛她被困在永恒的此刻。 The detective’s statement — “There is no good way to say this” — struck Li, an acclaimed novelist, as both a cliché and undeniably true. No words could capture the devastation she felt, losing both of her sons. Shattering, wrenching, aching: Words that came close felt meaningless. But Li knew that words were the only way to anchor her thoughts to reality. 警官的这句话——“这件事不知该如何开口”——对李翊云这位广受赞誉的小说家来说,既是陈词滥调,又是无可否认的事实。失去两个儿子给她带来的悲痛无法用言语表达。震惊、痛苦、疼痛:任何接近的词语都感觉毫无意义。但李翊云知道,只有文字才能将她的思想与现实连接起来。 李翊云2007年拍的一张家庭照,照片中她的丈夫抱着他们的儿子——文森特(左)和詹姆斯。 Three months after James’s death, Li started writing “Things in Nature Merely Grow,” a memoir about James, Vincent and how their lives and deaths intertwined. In direct and unsparing reflections, Li confronts not only the loss of her children but the limits of language, as she tries to convey anguish that defies description. The closest she can come to relaying her loss is to say she lives in an abyss, a murky place where no light can penetrate. 詹姆斯去世三个月后,李翊云开始写《自然万物只是生长》(Things in Nature Merely Grow),这是一本关于詹姆斯、文森特,以及他们的生与死如何交织在一起的回忆录。在直接而无情的反思中,李翊云面对的不仅是失去孩子,还有语言的局限,因为她试图表达无法描述的痛苦。关于她所失去的,她能说出的最接近的语言是:她生活在一个深渊,一个黑暗的地方,没有光亮可以穿透。 “All the words that have come to me: Many of them fall short; some are kept because they are needed to hold a place for James,” she writes. “Words may fall short, but they cast long shadows that sometimes can reach the unspeakable.” “我想到的所有词语:其中许多不尽人意;有些被保留了下来,因为需要用这些词语为詹姆斯保留一个位置,”她写道。“言语或许是乏力的,但它们投下的长长阴影,有时却能抵达无法言说的地方。” In some ways, Li’s memoir is a radical rebuke of the conventions surrounding grieving. Early on, she warns those who expect a narrative of healing or solace to stop reading: This is not a story about overcoming loss or moving on. 在某些方面,李翊云的回忆录是对有关悲伤的传统观念的激烈抨击。一开始,她就警告那些期待治愈或安慰叙事的人不要再读了:这不是一个关于克服痛失所爱或继续前行的故事。 “I don’t ever want to be free from the pain of missing my children,” Li told me when we met on a sunny day in April at her home near the university, where she teaches creative writing. “This pain is in my life for ever and ever, and I don’t want to do anything to mitigate the pain, because to mitigate it means that’s something bad, it’s an illness or affliction.” “我永远都不想摆脱思念孩子的痛苦,”4月一个阳光明媚的日子,我们在她教授创意写作的那所大学附近的家中见面时,李翊云这样对我说。“这种痛苦永远在我的生活中,我不想做任何事情来减轻痛苦,因为减轻痛苦意味着这是一件坏事,是一种疾病或折磨。” Li was at home with her husband, a software engineer, and their dog Quintus, a white cockapoo with cloudy cataract-filled eyes, who bounded into the living room, still exuberant at 13. Quintus joined the family when the boys were 7 and 10; Vincent chose his name, Latin for “fifth,” because he was the fifth family member. 李翊云和她的丈夫——一名软件工程师——以及他们的狗昆图斯在家里。昆图斯是一只白色的贵宾犬,患有白内障,眼睛浑浊。他在孩子们分别七岁和10岁时加入了这个家庭;是文森特给他起的名字,在拉丁语中是“第五”的意思,因为他是第五个家庭成员。 Li made me a cup of green tea and led me to the sunny sitting room off her garden, where she spends endless hours tending to plants and flowers. She had just planted some Japanese anemones that wouldn’t bloom until the fall, and the yard teemed with vibrant daffodils, hyacinths and tulips. With a hint of pride, Li said she had planted 1,600 bulbs and was pleased that around half of them had sprouted. She fretted about the fate of hatchlings in a wren’s nest nestled low in a rose bush. “You just worry about those little birds,” she said. 李翊云给我泡了一杯绿茶,把我带到她家花园旁边那间阳光明媚的起居室,她在花园里花了无数的时间照料花草。她刚种下了一些秋天才开花的日本海葵,院子里到处都是生机勃勃的水仙花、风信子和郁金香。带着一丝自豪,李翊云说她已经种下了1600个球茎,令人欣慰的是其中大约一半已经发芽。她为低矮的玫瑰丛中鹪鹩窝里的雏鸟的命运担忧。“你就是会担心那些小鸟,”她说。 Li, who was born in Beijing in 1972, has a round, youthful face and speaks softly and deliberately. Though she comes across as serious and cerebral at first, she frequently broke into smiles and laughter. She joked about what a bad swimmer and mediocre piano player she is, and gently mocked people she calls “silver liners,” well meaning acquaintances and strangers who have tried to assure her there’s life beyond grief. 1972年出生于北京的李翊云有着一张圆圆的、显年轻的脸,说话温柔从容。虽然一上来会给人一种严肃理智的印象,但她经常会突然露出笑容,发出笑声。她开玩笑说自己游泳技术很差,钢琴也很弹得平庸,还温和地嘲笑那些她所谓的“银边人”——这些好心的熟人和陌生人试图向她保证,悲伤过后人生还会另有一片天地。 “People always say, you’re going to overcome this,” she said. “No, I’m not.” “人们总是说,你会克服这一切的,”她说。“不,我不会。” Li told me she often senses that her circumstances make people uncomfortable, especially other parents. She’s also keenly aware that her easy, quiet demeanor and her way of coping by sticking to her schedule — she went straight back to teaching and writing in the days after the deaths of her children — fails to match most people’s assumptions about the devastating aftermath of losing a child. 李翊云告诉我,她经常感觉自己的处境使别人感到不舒服,尤其是其他父母。她也敏锐地意识到,她从容、安静的举止,以及她坚持自己日程安排的应对方式——在孩子死后的日子里,她直接回去教书和写作——这不是多数人心目中一个刚刚经历丧子之痛的人应有的样子。 “People expect a grieving mother to behave a certain way, and I never think I can live according to other people’s narrative,” she said. “There is the expectation you will open yourself up, show your vulnerability, show your progress, all these things I don’t do.” “人们期望一个悲伤的母亲以某种方式行事,我从不认为我可以按照别人的说法生活,”她说。“人们期望你敞开心扉,展示你的脆弱,展示你的进步,这些都是我不会做的。” What’s perhaps most surprising about talking to Li is witnessing her ability to exist in two realities that seem incompatible: one where she’s living in a desolate state she calls the abyss, and another where she finds fulfillment, amusement and even joy in her work, her friendships and her marriage, in little moments and memories. 与李翊云交谈时,最令人惊讶的也许是目睹她在两个似乎不相容的现实中生存的能力:一个是她生活在被她称为深渊的荒凉状态中,另一个是她在工作、友谊和婚姻中,在一些细微的瞬间和回忆中找到满足、娱乐甚至快乐。 “To live with pain is possible, you do things in everyday life, you garden, you listen to music, but you’re thinking about,” she said, trailing off, leaving the unspeakable unsaid. “带着痛苦生活是可能的,你在日常生活中做一些事情,你在做园艺,你在听音乐,但你还在思考,”她说,她的声音越来越小,没有说出那些难以言说的东西。 Vincent and James remain a tangible presence throughout Li’s quiet, spacious home. The walls of her light-filled office off the living room are lined with Vincent’s bright, whimsical artwork. Above the mantel is a large painting he made as a young boy, of a child standing in a field with three brown barns and an emerald green pond, against a golden sky. She discovered it after his death, and figured he hid it in a closet because he misspelled his name in his signature. 在李翊云安静宽敞的家中,文森特和詹姆斯的身影无处不在。她那间光线充足的办公室离客厅较远,墙上挂着文森特色调明亮、异想天开的艺术品。壁炉架上挂着一幅他小时候画的巨幅画作,画中一个孩子站在田野里,有三个棕色的谷仓和一个翠绿色的池塘,映衬着金色的天空。她在他去世后发现了这幅画,并认为他把它藏在壁橱里,是因为他在签名时拼错了自己的名字。 Elsewhere around the house are family photos, school portraits and knickknacks that reflect the boys’ quirks and obsessions. She keeps James’s collection of pocket watches, the origami animals he folded and the stuffed lamb, named Marmalade, that he got during a vacation to Ireland. She has Vincent’s collection of 47 stuffed penguins. 房子里的其他地方还摆放着家庭照片、学生肖像和小摆设,反映了男孩们独特的个性和兴趣。她保存着詹姆斯收藏的怀表、他叠的折纸动物,以及他去爱尔兰度假时得到的名叫橘子酱的毛绒小羊。她保留着文森特收藏的47只企鹅毛绒玩具。 Li and her husband have held onto all of their sons’ possessions, among them items that were returned by the police — Vincent’s phone, fractured at the corner, and James’s backpack, which held a pencil that had snapped in half. Even mundane objects have become treasures. James’s retainers are in a box on his desk; Vincent’s are on his shelf. 李翊云和丈夫一直保留着儿子们的所有物品,其中包括警方归还的东西——文森特的那部碎了一角的手机,詹姆斯的背包,里面装着一支断成两段的铅笔。即使是平凡的物品也变成了珍宝。詹姆斯的牙套在他桌上的一个盒子里;文森特的牙套在他的书架上。 “I cannot do anything about them,” Li said of her sons’ belongings. “It’s quite painful even to move an object. We have our human limits.” “我不能去动这些东西,”李翊云说到儿子的遗物。“即使是移动一个物体都是很痛苦的。我们有我们凡人的极限。” When James was born in 2005, Li’s literary career was taking off. She had abandoned a Ph.D. in immunology to pursue writing, and after enrolling in the Iowa Writers’ Workshop, she’d published some short stories. In 2005, she released her debut story collection, “A Thousand Years of Good Prayers.” She followed with highly praised novels like “Kinder than Solitude” and “The Vagrants,” which explored the oppression and paranoia of life in Communist China, and went on to accumulate a string of prestigious awards, including a Whiting Award and Guggenheim and MacArthur fellowships. 2005年詹姆斯出生时,李翊云的文学事业正处于起步阶段。她放弃了免疫学博士学位,转而追求写作,在加入艾奥瓦作家工作室后,她发表了一些短篇小说。2005年,她出版了首部小说集《千年祈祷》(A Thousand Years of Good Prayers)。随后,她创作了《比孤独更善良》(Kinder than Solitude)和《流浪者》(The Vagrants)等备受赞誉的小说,探索共产主义中国生活中的压迫和偏执,并获得了一系列著名奖项,包括怀廷奖、古根海姆奖和麦克阿瑟奖。 Even as she won accolades for her work and had a fulfilling home life with two bright, curious children, Li fought the pull of depression. During a breakdown in 2012, she felt herself “slipping into unreality” and attempted suicide twice, a bewildering experience she describes in her memoir, “Dear Friend, from My Life I Write to You in Your Life.” 即使她在工作上获得了荣誉,有两个聪明、好奇的孩子,家庭生活也很充实,但李翊云还是备受抑郁症困扰。在2012年的一次精神崩溃中,她觉得自己“陷入了不现实的境地”,两次试图自杀,她在回忆录《亲爱的朋友,在我的生活中给你的生活写信》(Dear Friend, from My Life I Write to You in Your Life)中描述了这段令人困惑的经历。 She has wondered if her near suicide influenced Vincent, and how Vincent’s death influenced James, but she refuses to dwell on those questions; the only people who could answer them are gone. 她曾经想过她的自杀是否影响了文森特,以及文森特的死如何影响了詹姆斯,但她拒绝细想这些问题;能回答这些问题的人都已经不在了。 In a devastating coincidence, Li was working on her novel, “Must I Go,” which centers on a woman who lost a daughter to suicide, when Vincent took his life in September 2017. 2017年9月文森特自杀身亡时,李翊云正在写她的小说《我该走了吗》(Must I Go),故事的中心人物是一个自杀身亡的女人的母亲。这是一个令人心碎的巧合。 After Vincent’s death, Li immediately began writing down imagined conversations with her son, telling him about the cheesecake she baked, her clumsy attempt to knit a scarf from the yellow yarn he left behind. The dialogue became Li’s novel “Where Reasons End,” a spare, intimate conversation between a mother and her brilliant, funny, eccentric son who has died by suicide and speaks to her from a vague afterlife. Vincent’s voice came so readily, it felt like he was speaking to her, Li said. “I wanted to have him around for a little bit,” Li said. 文森特去世后,李翊云立即开始写下想象中与儿子的对话,给他讲她烤的芝士蛋糕,她笨拙地试图用他留下的黄色纱线织一条围巾。这段对话后来成为李翊云的小说《理由的尽头》(Where Reasons End),讲述了一位母亲与她聪明、有趣、古怪的儿子之间零星且亲密的对话。儿子自杀身亡,从朦胧的阴世与她交谈。李翊云说,文森特的声音如此自然地出现在小说中,感觉像是他在与她交谈。“我想他在我身边多待一会,”李翊云说。 But after James died, Li found it impossible to conjure him at first. Unlike Vincent, who was artistic, expressive and outgoing, James was introverted, governed by logic rather than feelings. 但詹姆斯去世后,李翊云起初发现自己无法让他在文字中浮现。与文森特不同,詹姆斯性格内向,支配他的是逻辑,不是情感。 Li felt any attempt to capture James in writing was doomed to be “a partial failure,” she said. Still, she decided she would rather fail than not try. 李翊云曾觉得,任何用文字刻画詹姆斯的尝试都注定是“一种不完全的失败”,她说。尽管如此,她还是决定宁可失败也不能放弃尝试。 “I had all these thoughts after James died, but those thoughts are nothing unless I think them through in writing,” Li said. “詹姆斯死后,我脑子里全是这些想法,但除非我把它们通过写作记录下来,否则这些想法就什么都不是了,”李翊云说。 It took her several months before she found the right language to write about him, but once she started, the words came quickly. 她花了几个月时间才找到了描述詹姆斯的适当语言,但一旦她开始下笔,句子就很快形成了。 “By the time I started writing, I knew it was going to come out all right,” she said, then quickly corrected herself with a quiet laugh that caught in her throat. “I keep saying all right, as though everything is going to be all right, nothing is all right.” “开始动笔的时候,我就知道一切都会很顺利,”她说,然后她很快用不出声的轻笑纠正了自己。“我老是说一切顺利,好像一切都会好起来,没有什么会好起来。” Vincent’s death was shocking, but not entirely unexpected. Even as a young child, he was prone to depression and despair. His fourth grade teacher sent a concerned email to Li about poems he wrote, painful verses reflecting on life and death. A therapist treating him warned Li that he might act on his suicidal thoughts and told her she should be prepared. 文森特的死令人震惊,但并非完全出乎意料。即使在孩提时代,他就容易陷入抑郁和绝望。上四年级时,文森特的老师给李翊云发了一封充满担忧的电子邮件,是关于他写的诗的,他写了一些反思生与死的痛苦诗句。一名为他治疗的心理专家曾警告李翊云,文森特可能会把自杀的想法付诸行动,并告诉她应该有思想准备。 There were no similar warning signs from James, who was also in therapy and came across as stoic and resilient, and didn’t exhibit his brother’s emotional extremes or crippling perfectionism. 詹姆斯没有类似令人警惕的表现,他也曾接受心理治疗,给人以能默默承受、适应能力强的印象,没有表现出哥哥那样的极端情绪,或令他自己崩溃的完美主义。 James loved philosophy, linguistics and science. He sometimes stunned his family as a young child, when he would offhandedly explain mysterious quantum particles or the behavior of obscure deep sea invertebrates at the dinner table. He excelled at languages — he studied Spanish, Italian and Japanese, and taught himself Welsh, German, Romanian and Russian — but often kept his thoughts to himself. In kindergarten, James came home one day wearing a sign he’d written that said, “IM NOt TaLKING Becuase I DON’t WaNT TO!” 詹姆斯热爱哲学、语言学和科学。小时候,他有时会在餐桌上漫不经心地解释神秘的量子粒子、或鲜为人知的深海无脊椎动物的行为,让家人大吃一惊。虽然他的语言能力出类拔萃——在学校学了西班牙语、意大利语和日语,并自学了威尔士语、德语、罗马尼亚语和俄语,但他总是把想法藏在心里。上幼儿园时,有一天他身上戴着一个自己写的牌子回了家,牌子上写着:“我不说话因为我不想说!” Sometimes Li wonders if she failed to notice a downward spiral because James was so self-contained. 有时候李翊云会想,她没注意到詹姆斯陷入不幸的漩涡,是否就因为他如此地自持。 A few weeks before his death, James told his mother that he was reading “The Myth of Sisyphus,” by the French philosopher Albert Camus, which opens with the question of whether life is worth living. Li recalled a conversation she and James had around that time, when she told him that most people endure the monotonous or painful parts of life for moments of pure joy. The last time Li and her husband saw James, when they dropped him off at his dorm after dinner the weekend before he died, Li asked what he was reading. James said that he was rereading “The Myth of Sisyphus.” 詹姆斯在去世几周前曾告诉母亲,他正在读法国哲学家阿尔贝·加缪的《西西弗斯神话》(The Myth of Sisyphus)。这本书在开篇处提出一个问题:人生是否值得活下去。李翊云回忆起当时和詹姆斯的一次对话,她告诉儿子,大多数人忍受人生中单调或痛苦的部分,为的是享受由衷快乐的时刻。李翊云和丈夫最后一次看到詹姆斯是他去世前的那个周末。他们晚饭后送他回宿舍,李翊云问儿子在读什么书。詹姆斯说,他当时正在重读《西西弗斯神话》。 Looking back, Li wonders if she sensed something then. But she doesn’t allow herself to dwell on whether his death could have been prevented, a trap she fell into when Vincent died, she said. 回过头来看,李翊云在想自己当时是否感觉到了什么。但她不允许自己老去想詹姆斯的死是否可以避免的问题,她说,文森特去世后,她曾掉进那个陷阱。 “When people die from suicide, family who are left behind usually ask, what if? Why?” Li said. “This time I thought, we don’t want to start with those questions, we want to start somewhere else, which was just to accept this is a fact. This was his decision, he died, and there was a reason for him to make this decision.” “有人自杀身亡后,身后的家人通常会问,‘要是……会怎么样?是因为什么?’”李翊云说。“这一次,我觉得我们不要从这些问题开始,我们要从别的地方开始,那就是接受这是事实。这是他的决定,他死了,他做这个决定是有原因的。” One thought kept resurfacing: Li was certain that James trusted in his parents’ ability to survive his death. That unshakable certainty is one of the things that keeps Li grounded and able to go on living. 一个不断浮出的想法是:李翊云确信詹姆斯相信父母在他死后有能力活下去。这个坚定的信念让李翊云保持了理智和活下去的能力。 “He was aware that we would endure this, because we endured it once,” she said. “I thought, we must respect his understanding and we must respect his choice.” “他知道我们会承受这件事,因为我们曾经承受过,”李翊云说。“我觉得,我们必须尊重他的领悟,我们必须尊重他的选择。” Experiencing a devastating loss for a second time, Li knew she needed to ground herself in routine, she said. 李翊云说,再次经历痛苦的失去,她知道自己需要过有规律的生活。 保持规律的生活帮助李翊云度过了儿子去世后的痛苦日子。她最近已完成了一部新小说的初稿。 Hannah Yoon for The New York Times She knew she needed to sleep, stay hydrated, get exercise every day, and to stick to her schedule, continuing with her lap swimming, her weekly piano lessons, her classes at Princeton. She threw herself back into writing, which she does for two or three hours every morning, and recently finished a draft of a new book, a historical novel about a group of musicians, set in early-19th-century Europe. 她知道自己需要睡眠、喝水、每天锻炼,并坚持自己的时间表,继续去游泳池游泳,继续每周上钢琴课,继续在普林斯顿大学教书。她把自己重新投入写作,每天早上写作两三个小时,最近完成了一部新小说的初稿。这是一部关于一群音乐家的历史小说,故事背景设定在19世纪早期的欧洲。 Li and her husband have continued to travel, something they loved to do with the boys, and to celebrate their sons’ birthdays with homemade cakes. “There’s only one person who knows how I feel — it’s him,” Li said of Dapeng, who prefers to remain private and doesn’t give interviews. 李翊云和丈夫已在继续旅行,那是他们喜欢和儿子们一起做的事情,他们还自己做蛋糕庆祝儿子的生日。“只有一个人知道我的感受——那就是他,”李翊云指的是大鹏,注重隐私的他没有接受采访。 Li has found support from her closest friends, among them the writers Elizabeth McCracken and Mona Simpson, who organized meals for her and her husband for several months, and the editor Brigid Hughes, who came to stay with Li the weekend after James died and helped with the task of alerting Li’s friends and colleagues. A friend later told Hughes that she couldn’t make sense of the message at first, and thought a draft of an old email about Vincent’s death had been sent by accident. 李翊云得到了来自她最亲密朋友的支持,他们中包括作家伊丽莎白·麦克拉肯和莫娜·辛普森,她们为李翊云和丈夫安排了几个月的餐食;还有编辑布里吉德·休斯,她在詹姆斯去世后的那个周末到李家住了几天,帮忙将这个噩耗告知李翊云的朋友和同事。一名朋友后来对休斯说,她收到消息后一开始觉得一头雾水,以为是意外错发了关于文森特去世的旧邮件草稿。 That weekend, Li asked Hughes a painful question: Wasn’t she the worst mother in the world? Hughes quickly replied that they both knew the question was outlandish. One thing Li doesn’t doubt is the depth of her love for her sons, who she always encouraged to be fully themselves. She’s tried to extend that acceptance to not only their lives but their deaths. 那个周末,李翊云问了休斯一个痛苦的问题:难道自己不是世界上最糟糕的母亲吗?休斯很快回答说,他们两人都知道这个问题太荒谬了。李翊云毫不怀疑的是她爱儿子的程度之深,她总是鼓励他们做真实的自己。她尽力将这种接纳扩展到不仅是他们的生命,也包括他们的死亡。 “As their mother, I always respected them and tried very hard to understand them,” she said. “作为他们的母亲,我总是尊重他们,并努力去了解他们,”她说。 While writing “Things in Nature Merely Grow,” Li had doubts about whether she should finish it. 在写作《自然万物只是生长》时,李翊云曾犹豫要不要完成这本书。 At one point, she asked McCracken to read an early draft and tell her if it was worth publishing. McCracken assured her it was. 她一度请麦克拉肯读了初稿,并告诉她书是否值得出版。麦克拉肯向她保证值得出版。 “I was astonished by what a work of clear thinking it was, about things that seem impossible to think about,” McCracken said. “To have lost two astonishing children, it’s a life sentence.” “令我惊讶的是,这是一部思路如此清晰的作品,探讨了一些似乎不可能去思考的东西,”麦克拉肯说。“失去两个如此出色的孩子,这等于被判处了无期徒刑。” Sitting in her sunroom, Li told me that there’s something she wishes she’d known earlier in her life, so that she could have shared it with her children: that it’s possible “to suffer better,” to be both sad and happy. It’s a place she’s arrived at in recent months. When she’s gardening, when she’s reading, or writing, or listening to music, or taking a walk in the woods with her husband, she feels happy, she said. 李翊云坐在家中的阳光房里对我说,她宁愿自己能早点明白一些事情,这样她就能和孩子们分享:“更好地受苦”是有可能的,既感受悲哀、也感受快乐。这是她近几个月逐渐得出的看法。当她做园艺、阅读、写作、听音乐,或与丈夫在林间散步时,她会感到快乐。 “We’re sad, we’re very sad, but we’re not unhappy,” she said. “So long as we live, we carry our love for the children, even though they’re not here.” “我们悲伤,非常悲伤,但我们并非不快乐,”她说。“只要我们活着,我们就怀抱着对孩子们的爱,即使他们已经不在人世。” If you are having thoughts of suicide, call or text 988 to reach the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline, or go to SpeakingOfSuicide.com/resources for a list of additional resources. 如果你有自杀的想法,请拨打988或发短信,与988自杀与危机生命线联系,或访问SpeakingOfSuicide.com/resources,以获取更多资源。 Alexandra Alter为时报撰写有关书籍、出版和文学界的报道。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
TIFFANY MAY2025年5月22日去年,两名编辑被判犯有串谋发布煽动刊物罪。图片为等候在香港一家法院外的记者。 Bertha Wang/EPA, via Shutterstock Journalists in Hong Kong have increasingly complained about having to self-censor and the fear of arrest since a national security crackdown began five years ago. 自五年前的一场国家安全打压行动以来,香港记者越来越多地抱怨不得不进行自我审查,担心遭受牢狱之灾。 Now, they say, they have another worry to add to the list: tax inspections. 他们说,现在又多了一个担忧:查税。 The Hong Kong Journalists Association said on Wednesday that the union itself and six independent news outlets — as well as their founders — are among those who have been subject to tax investigations, saying it added to the pressures being placed on journalists as press freedom dwindles in the Chinese territory. 香港记者协会周三表示,该协会和六家独立新闻机构——以及它们的创始人——均遭到查税,并称随着这个中国领土的新闻自由减少,记者们面临的压力也在增加。 The investigations also extended to the personal taxes of the spouses or parents of some of the journalists who are being investigated, the group said. Most of those being investigated by the department have been issued additional tax demands, and a few said they were asked to provide up to seven years of financial information. 该组织表示,部分被调查记者的配偶或父母也面临个人所得税调查。多数被查对象已收到补税通知,少数人更是被要求提交长达七年的财务信息。 Selina Cheng, the chair of the association, said that there was not sufficient evidence to prompt most of the tax investigations, and that, in some cases, the authorities had overestimated income without taking into account business expenses. 香港记者协会主席郑嘉如指出,多数税务调查缺乏充分依据,部分案例中当局在未扣除经营成本的情况下高估了收入。 “Journalists in Hong Kong do not have a very high income. Other than having to pay these claims of taxes, they also need to spend money, time and energy to prove in reverse that they were innocent,” Ms. Cheng said. “香港记者收入本就不高,除被迫缴纳这些存疑税款外,还需耗费金钱、时间和精力自证清白,”郑嘉如说。 The number of tax investigations in Hong Kong is relatively low: The Inland Revenue Department said it completed about 1,800 field audit and investigations between 2023 and 2024. The department said in a statement that the investigations followed standard procedures. “The industry or background of a taxpayer has no bearing on such reviews,” it said. 香港的税务稽查相对少见。税务局数据显示,2023至2024年度共完成约1800宗实地审计及调查。该局在声明中强调,所有稽查均依标准程序进行,“纳税人的行业或背景不会影响稽查决定。” Some independent media outlets in Hong Kong have faced great scrutiny since a national security law was imposed by Beijing in 2020 and criminalized some forms of dissent. The authorities have sent police officers to raid newsrooms, arrested media executives and convicted news editors. 自北京于2020年实施国家安全法并将某些异见行为入刑以来,香港的一些独立媒体面临着严格的审查。当局派警察搜查新闻编辑部,逮捕媒体高管,并将新闻编辑定罪。 The authorities have also used subtler ways to try to silence opposing voices of journalists, activists and even bookstore owners, political analysts say. Groups that are critical of the government have faced problems finding private venues for events, inspections of their premises and even inquiries into their pet licenses. 政治分析人士表示,当局还使用更隐蔽的方式试图压制记者、活动人士乃至书店经营者的反对声音。批评政府的团体面临活动场地租借困难、场所突检,甚至连宠物饲养许可证都遭到质询。 Thomas Kellogg, the executive director of the Georgetown Center for Asian Law, said that administrative harassment can be an effective way to control the remaining outlets that have managed not to cross red lines that could put them at risk for prosecution under national security or sedition laws. Such reviews “serve as a reminder to media outlets that they have to watch what they say, and that the government has ways to hit back at them over reporting it doesn’t like,” he said. 乔治敦大学亚洲法律中心执行主任托马斯·凯洛格表示,对于尚存的那些尚未逾越红线,因而不必担心遭到国家安全或煽动叛乱法律检控的媒体而言,行政骚扰是一种行之有效的管控手段。他说,这类审查“意在提醒媒体机构谨言慎行,政府总有办法对其不喜欢的报道实施报复”。 Damon Wong, the director and editor in chief of InMedia, said that a tax investigation into the independent news outlet had caused it to use up significant time and resources. Last year he appeared in court and paid a fine of about $1,250 for failing to keep a physical copy of the company registry in its office. 《独立媒体》(InMedia)的主编黄俊邦表示,对这家独立新闻机构的税务稽查占用了它的大量时间和资源。去年,他因没有在办公室保留公司注册表的实体副本而出庭,并缴纳了1万港币罚款。 Tom Grundy, the founder of the Hong Kong Free Press, an English-language online outlet, also said that it has had to redirect time, resources and money away from covering the news as it faced scrutiny from the tax and other departments. 英文网络媒体《香港自由新闻》(Hong Kong Free Press)的创始人汤姆·格伦迪亦证实,税务和其他部门的审查占用了原本用于新闻报道的时间、资源和资金。 Last year, the authorities investigated what the outlet described as “false complaints,” including claims that a hot sauce it sold as a fund-raiser had come from an unlicensed food factory and that Mr. Grundy’s pet dog lacked a license and rabies shot. Both cases were closed after he submitted evidence to the contrary, Mr. Grundy said. 去年,香港当局针对该媒体发起多项被后者称为“不实控诉”的调查,包括指控其为筹款而售卖的辣椒酱产自一家无证食品厂,以及创办人格伦迪的宠物犬未办理许可证且未接种狂犬疫苗。格伦迪表示,在提交反驳证据后,两起案件均已撤销。 This year, Hong Kong’s press freedom ranking fell to 140th out of 180 countries and territories, according to an index compiled by the advocacy group Reporters Without Borders. About 20 independent outlets in Hong Kong have closed since 2020, according to a study published last year by the Georgetown Center of Asian Law. 根据倡导组织“无国界记者”发布的年度指数,香港今年在全球180个国家和地区的新闻自由排名跌至第140位。乔治敦大学亚洲法律中心去年发布的研究显示,自2020年以来,香港约有20家独立媒体关闭。 A press freedom survey conducted this year by the Foreign Correspondents Club showed that more than half of the respondents were concerned about the risks of arrest or prosecution, and that 65 percent had self-censored in their coverage. 香港的外国记者俱乐部今年进行的一项新闻自由调查显示,超过一半的受访者担心被逮捕或起诉的风险,65%的受访者在报道中进行过自我审查。 Mr. Grundy said that his outlet has always paid its taxes on time and had cooperated fully with the review. But that approach also came at a cost. 格伦迪说,他的媒体机构始终按时纳税,并全力配合稽查工作。但这种做法也是有代价的。 “I’m having to act as a one-man compliance department instead of a journalist,” he said. “It’s just not what I expected from the world’s freest economy when I chose to set up a business here a decade ago.” “我不得不放下记者的工作,一个人担负起一个合规部的职责,”他说。“这与我十年前选择在这里创业时,对这个世界上最自由的经济体的期望大相径庭。” Tiffany May是时报驻香港记者,报道香港和更广泛地区的政治、商业和文化议题。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
MEAGHAN TOBIN2025年5月22日“总而言之,出口管制是失败的,”英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋周三在台北的记者会上说。 Ann Wang/Reuters Lawmakers in Washington have worked for years to limit China’s access to the cutting-edge computer chips needed for advanced artificial intelligence, particularly those made by Nvidia, America’s leading chipmaker. 华盛顿的立法者们多年来一直在制定法规,限制中国获取先进人工智能技术所需的尖端计算机芯片,尤其是美国主要制造商英伟达的产品。 But according to Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, those regulations, driven by economic and security concerns, have only made Chinese tech companies stronger. 但英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋指出,这些出于经济和国家安全考虑制定的管制措施反而让中国的科技公司变得更强大。 The export controls on chips forced Nvidia to forfeit its dominant position in China while domestic companies like Huawei, the telecommunications giant, filled the gap, Mr. Huang said at a news conference in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, on Wednesday. 黄仁勋周三在台北一个记者会上说,对芯片的出口管制迫使英伟达在中国市场失去了主导地位,而电信设备巨头华为这样的本土企业填补了空白。 Washington’s efforts gave Chinese companies “the spirit, the energy and the government support to accelerate their development,” said Mr. Huang, who attended a tech conference in Taipei this week. “All in all, the export control was a failure.” 华盛顿的努力给了中国企业“加速自身发展的精神、活力,以及政府的支持”,黄仁勋本周在台北出席一个科技会议时这样说。“总而言之,出口管制是失败的。” Beginning in 2022, under former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the U.S. government imposed rules to curb the export of Nvidia’s most powerful chips to China. Nvidia responded by modifying one type of chip, making it less powerful so it would fall below the government’s performance thresholds. Last month, Nvidia disclosed that U.S. officials were requiring a license for future sales of those chips to China, forcing the company to take a $5.5 billion hit on inventory it had already planned to sell. 在前总统拜登领导下,美国政府从2022年起对英伟达实施新规,限制它向中国出口最强大的芯片。作为应对,英伟达对某款芯片进行了修改,降低它的性能,使其符合政府的出口标准。英伟达上个月披露,美国官员正在要求公司申请未来向中国销售这种芯片的许可,迫使公司冲销了价值55亿美元原计划卖给中国的库存。 Although Huawei’s chips cannot do everything that Nvidia’s can, they work well enough to help Chinese companies provide A.I. services to people and businesses. In recent months, the government in Beijing has been pushing companies to stock their data centers with mostly Chinese-made chips. 尽管华为的芯片尚不具有英伟达芯片的所有功能,但足以帮助中国公司向个人和企业提供人工智能服务。近几个月来,中国政府一直在推动企业在数据中心主要采用国产芯片。 “A.I. researchers are still doing A.I. research in China,” Mr. Huang said on Wednesday. “If they don’t have enough Nvidia, they will use their own,” he said. “中国的人工智能研究人员仍在推进人工智能的研发,”黄仁勋周三说。“如果他们没有足够多的英伟达芯片,就会使用自己的芯片,”他说。 Mr. Huang has vowed that Nvidia will do everything it can to keep selling A.I. chips in China. The day after the U.S. government opened an investigation into whether Nvidia’s previous sales to China had violated its rules, Mr. Huang met with top economic and trade officials in Beijing. 黄仁勋承诺,英伟达将竭尽全力维持在华人工智能芯片的销售。就在美国政府对英伟达此前对华销售是否违规展开调查的第二天,黄仁勋在北京与中国高级经贸官员见了面。 Nvidia says it is concerned that any advantage gained by Huawei in China could eventually spread into other markets, helping Huawei build a stronger foundation from which to compete around the world. 英伟达表示,该公司担心华为在中国市场取得的任何优势可能最终扩散到世界其他市场,从而帮助华为建立更强大的基础,以开展全球竞争。 Washington’s controls on chip exports have made it increasingly difficult for Nvidia to do business in China. The country accounted for $17 billion of Nvidia’s revenue during its last fiscal year, by percentage the least in over a decade, according to Bernstein Research. Nvidia reported $130 billion in global revenue during its last fiscal year, an increase of 114 percent over the year before. 华盛顿的芯片出口管制使得英伟达在华开展业务变得越来越困难。据伯恩斯坦研究公司的数据,英伟达上一财年来自中国的营收为170亿美元,占总收入的比例创下十余年来的新低。英伟达上一财年全球营收录得1300亿美元,同比增长了114%。 “Four years ago, at the beginning of the Biden administration, Nvidia’s market share in China was nearly 95 percent,” Mr. Huang said. “Today it is only 50 percent.” “四年前,在拜登政府上台初期,英伟达在中国的市场份额接近95%,”黄仁勋说。“如今仅为50%。” This month, the U.S. Commerce Department said that any person or company using Huawei A.I. chips could be in violation of U.S. export controls. 美国商务部本月说,任何使用华为人工智能芯片的个人或公司都可能违反了美国的出口管制。 Countries around the world have been lining up to buy Nvidia chips, and the Trump administration has positioned itself as a deal broker. 世界各国正在排队购买英伟达的芯片,特朗普政府已将自己定位为交易掮客。 Mr. Huang was in the Gulf region last week during President Trump’s visit there, as the administration struck multibillion-dollar agreements to sell advanced chips from Nvidia to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 特朗普总统上周访问海湾地区时,黄仁勋也在那里。美国政府签署了把英伟达的先进芯片卖给沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋价值数十亿美元的协议。 Officials in the administration believe these deals will boost business for American A.I. companies like Nvidia and widen the nation’s lead in artificial intelligence. Mr. Huang criticized the approach taken by the Biden administration. 美国政府官员认为,这些交易将推动英伟达等美国人工智能公司的业务,扩大美国在人工智能领域的领先地位。黄仁勋对此前拜登政府的做法提出了批评。 “President Trump said very publicly he would like Nvidia to sell as many GPUs as possible all around the world,” Mr. Huang said, referring to an Nvidia product needed for A.I. systems. “特朗普总统非常公开地说,他想让英伟达将尽可能多的GPU卖给全球各地的买家,”黄仁勋说,他指的是英伟达生产的人工智能系统芯片。 He said it was important that China’s artificial intelligence developers work on systems made by Nvidia, “or at least on American technology.” 他指出,让中国的人工智能研发人员使用英伟达制造的芯片,“或至少使用美国的技术”很重要。 Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者,常驻台北,报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻,重点关注中国。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
CLAIRE FU2025年5月21日成都动物园,这座城市被誉为“中国最具幸福感城市”。 The New York Times The inland city of Chengdu in southwestern China is often ridiculed for its slow-paced and leisurely lifestyle. It’s portrayed as a haven for slackers, lacking the unrelenting, hardworking culture found in wealthy coastal trade centers like Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. 中国西南部的内陆城市成都常因其慢节奏和悠闲的生活方式被调侃。这座城市被描绘成懒人的避风港,缺乏上海、广州和深圳等富裕沿海贸易中心那种不断进取、勤奋工作的文化氛围。 For decades, industrious young people left Chengdu, and other landlocked urban centers, to pursue opportunities near the coast, where money poured in as China opened its factories and exported its goods to the rest of the world. 几十年来,勤奋的年轻人离开成都及其他内陆城市,前往沿海地区追寻机会——随着中国建设工厂并向全球出口商品,财富不断涌入这些地区。 Even before China’s trade war with the United States, more young people were turning away from the hypercompetitive work culture found in the country’s megacities, opting for a more chill life in Chengdu, which has earned the reputation of being “China’s happiest city.” 甚至在中国与美国的贸易战前,就已经有更多的年轻人开始远离一线城市高度竞争性的工作文化,选择在成都过上更放松的生活,这座城市也因此赢得了“中国最具幸福感城市”的美誉。 Chengdu is one of the fastest-growing cities in China. Its population has surged 30 percent in the last five years to 21.5 million, and its real estate market is booming — a rare bright spot amid the country’s property crisis. 如今,成都是中国发展最快的城市之一。过去五年里,该市人口激增30%,达到2150万,房地产市场蓬勃发展,成为中国房地产危机中罕见的亮点。 The appeal of Chengdu, an ancient city with a history dating back more than 2,300 years, reflects a budding disillusionment among young people who see an economy that is no longer creating the opportunities it once did for their parents. 这座拥有2300多年历史的古城的吸引力反映出年轻人中逐渐萌芽的幻灭感:他们看到中国经济已经无法像父辈时代那样创造大量机会。 As its exports have surged, drawing tariffs from President Trump, China’s domestic economy has struggled. Consumers have been wary of spending, a continuing trend shown again in new monthly government data released on Monday. 在出口激增招致特朗普政府关税同时,中国国内经济陷入困境。消费者一直不敢消费,周一发布的最新月度政府数据再次印证了这一持续趋势。 Better pay and a successful career are not a guaranteed trade-off for endless workdays and the grind of living in crowded and unaffordable cities. Wuhan, another inland city and the capital of Hubei Province, has also experienced a significant increase in residents over the past four years. 无休止的工作日和在拥挤、生活成本高昂的城市中挣扎已经不能保证可以换来更高的薪水和成功的事业。过去四年,另一个内陆城市、湖北省会武汉的人口也显著增长。 成都的房价上涨是中国所有大城市中最快的,没有受到该国持续已久的房地产颓势影响。 Jobs in Chengdu generally pay less than those in other major cities, and the opportunities for career advancement are more limited, but it is a less stressful place to live. 成都的薪资水平普遍低于其他主要城市,职业晋升机会也更有限,但这里的生活压力较小。 “Chengdu is more friendly to young people in every aspect,” said Wang Di, a history professor at the University of Macau who has written extensively about the city. He compared Chengdu to Austin, Texas — another city known for its embrace of art and counterculture. “成都在各个方面都对年轻人更友好,”澳门大学历史教授王笛说,他撰写过大量关于这座城市的著作。他将成都比作美国得克萨斯州的奥斯汀——另一座以拥抱艺术和反主流文化著称的城市。 While the Chinese government is growing increasingly repressive, Chengdu has a vibrant L.G.B.T.Q. community, a thriving hip-hop scene and a plethora of teahouses. 尽管中国政府的管控日益严格,成都仍拥有活跃的LGBTQ群体、繁荣的嘻哈文化和许许多多的茶馆。 And, of course, there are the pandas. Chengdu is home to hundreds of giant pandas. 当然,还有大熊猫。成都生活着数以百计大熊猫。 The Chengdu Research Base of Giant Panda Breeding attracted more than 12.2 million visitors last year, according to Chinese state media. 据中国官方媒体报道,成都大熊猫繁育研究基地去年吸引了超过1220万游客。 With an influx of transplants and returnees, housing prices in Chengdu have increased at a faster rate than in any other major city in China. 随着外来人口和返乡者的涌入,成都房价的涨幅超过中国其他所有主要城市。 Since 2021, the average home price per square meter rose 16.8 percent, compared with a 5.4 percent increase on average for 10 major Chinese cities, according to statistics from China Index Academy, a real estate research firm. 房地产研究机构中国指数研究院的数据显示,自2021年以来,成都住宅每平方米均价上涨16.8%,而中国10个主要城市的平均涨幅为5.4%。 成都的人口在过去五年里增长了30%,达到2150万。 Hu Sheng, 36, moved to Chengdu from a smaller nearby city in Sichuan Province to work in the construction and renovation industry. He has been looking for a three-bedroom apartment, but prime properties go off the market quickly, he said. 36岁的胡胜(音)从四川省内一个较小的城市搬到成都,从事建筑和装修行业。他一直在寻找一套三居室公寓,但他说,优质房源很快就会售罄。 “There are a lot of people buying homes now,” Mr. Hu said. “Everyone is scrambling for those apartments.” “现在买房的人很多,”胡胜说,“大家都在抢着买房子。” As China’s westernmost major city, Chengdu has long played a role in national security. Starting in the 1960s, the government invested heavily to move military defense and transport manufacturing inland as a way to protect these critical industries from potential foreign invaders. 作为中国西部的主要城市,成都长期在国家安全方面扮演重要角色。从20世纪60年代开始,政府大力投资,将国防和运输制造业转移到内陆,以保护这些关键产业免受潜在外国侵略者的威胁。 Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, has pledged to bolster the country’s industries for cutting-edge technology such as semiconductors and reduce its reliance on foreign firms. Economists have speculated that a similar focus on strategic domestic industries may bring more companies to Chengdu and its inland cities. 中国最高领导人习近平承诺要加强半导体等尖端技术产业,并减少对外国公司的依赖。经济学家推测,对国内战略产业的类似关注可能会将更多企业带到成都及其他内陆城市。 Currently, about 70 percent of Chengdu’s economy derives from the service sector, which includes spending from tourism and dining at the city’s popular spicy hot pot restaurants. It is not as reliant on manufacturing as other locations are, insulating it from the most devastating impact of the tariff battle with the United States. 目前,成都约70%的经济来源于服务业,包括旅游业和在生意火爆的麻辣火锅店的消费。它不像其他地区那样依赖制造业,这使其在与美国的关税战中免受最具破坏性的影响。 There is also a thriving entertainment sector in Chengdu. The animated film “Ne Zha 2,” which became China’s highest-grossing movie ever upon its release this year, was produced by a studio in Chengdu. The city has also become a hub for video game development, driven in part by Chengdu’s emergence as a center for the e-sports industry. 成都的娱乐产业也十分繁荣。今年上映后成为中国有史以来票房最高电影的动画片《哪吒 2》就是由成都一家工作室制作的。随着成都成为电子竞技产业的中心,它也成为了电子游戏开发的枢纽。 成都大熊猫繁育研究基地去年吸引了超过1220万游客。 Huang Xue, a general manager at the Chengdu branch of China Index Academy, a property market data provider, said housing prices in the city were more in line with wages than in other cities. 房地产市场数据提供商中国指数研究院成都分院总经理黄雪(音)表示,相比其他城市,成都的房价与工资水平的匹配更合理。 Ultimately, though, people are turning to Chengdu because at a time of economic uncertainty across China, she said, “people should enjoy life when they can.” 不过,她指出,归根结底,人们选择成都的原因在于:在中国经济充满不确定性的当下,“人们应该及时行乐。” Three years ago, Emma Ma, 30, left Beijing to move to Chengdu, where she is running a studio producing music videos with her partner. 三年前,30岁的艾玛·马(音)从北京搬到成都,与合伙人经营一家制作音乐视频的工作室。 She said she was renting a two-bedroom apartment for about $400 a month, which would barely cover the cost of a bedroom in a shared apartment in Beijing. She and her partner also hired a helper to do chores and make dinners for them. 她说,她租了一套两居室,每月租金约2900元人民币,这笔钱在北京租合租房里的一间卧室都勉强。她和合伙人还雇了一个人帮忙做一些杂事,并给他们做晚饭。 “I feel it doesn’t cost a lot to be happy here,” Ms. Ma said. “我觉得在这里,获得快乐不需要花很多钱,”艾玛·马说。 Professor Wang said the negative perception of a slower lifestyle had changed in China after the Covid-19 pandemic, when cities like Shanghai were locked down for months. The relative stability of daily life in Chengdu, once considered dull, became more appealing, he said. 王笛表示,在新冠疫情期间上海等城市被封锁数月后,中国人对慢生活的负面看法已发生改变。他说,成都的日常生活相对稳定,曾经被认为是枯燥的,如今却越来越有吸引力。 Treasure Wu left Chengdu in 2018 to work as a computer programmer in Shanghai. Mr. Wu said he did not enjoy his life there. His rent was expensive, he could not understand the Shanghai dialect and he quickly grew bored of visiting local landmarks. 特雷热·吴(音)2018年离开成都,去上海做计算机程序员。他说在那里的生活并不愉快:房租昂贵,听不懂上海话,而那些著名景点他很快就厌倦了。 成都的一处街边市场。 Two years later, he moved back to Chengdu. His company was expanding, and he was offered the chance to transfer. 两年后,他搬回了成都。当时公司正在扩张,他获得了调职机会。 Mr. Wu said he bought an apartment in Chengdu in 2022 for around $300,000. A similar size apartment would cost three times as much in Shanghai, he said. 特雷热·吴说,2022年,他在成都买了一套公寓,花费约220万元人民币。他说,同样大小的公寓在上海的价格是这里的三倍。 “My salary here is enough to support me in buying whatever I want,” Mr. Wu said. “I have a great sense of well-being in Chengdu.” “我在这里的工资足够我想买什么就买什么,”特雷热·吴说,“我在成都的生活幸福满满。” Claire Fu报道中国新闻,主要关注该国经济和社会议题。她常驻首尔。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
ALAN RAPPEPORT, ANA SWANSON2025年5月21日对于财政部长斯科特·贝森特来说,向外国官员解释特朗普政府的关税政策可能是一项挑战。 Pete Marovich for The New York Times Top finance officials from the world’s wealthiest economies began gathering in Canada on Tuesday for meetings that are expected to be consumed by renewed fears of a global downturn set off by President Trump’s trade war. 世界最富有经济体的高级财政官员于周二齐聚加拿大,预计此次会议将主要围绕因特朗普总统发动的贸易战而再次引发的全球经济下行担忧。 The summit of the Group of 7 finance ministers, a traditionally friendly gathering, is likely to be more fraught this year. The tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on American allies and adversaries have threatened to blunt global growth and inflame inflation. Europe, Japan and Canada have all been bearing the brunt of the Trump administration’s “America First” economic agenda. 七国集团财长峰会历来是一个友好的聚会,但今年气氛可能会更加紧张。特朗普对美国盟友和对手加征的关税已对全球经济增长构成威胁,并可能加剧通货膨胀。欧洲、日本和加拿大都深受特朗普政府“美国优先”经济议程的影响。 The tenor of the discussions could also be complicated by recent tension between the United States and Canada, the country hosting this year’s meetings and one that Mr. Trump has said he wants to annex. 美国和加拿大之间最近的紧张局势也可能使讨论的氛围复杂化,加拿大是今年会议的东道国,而特朗普曾表示希望将其吞并。 “I think it’s going to be awkward,” said Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. “我觉得场面大概会有些尴尬,”大西洋理事会地缘经济中心副主任查尔斯·利奇菲尔德说。 The three days of meetings will include many of the recent topics of discussion, including support for Ukraine, concerns about China’s economic practices and headwinds facing the global economy. However, Mr. Trump’s trade tactics, which many economists view as the biggest threat to global economic stability, will dominate the discussions between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his counterparts. 为期三天的会议将涵盖许多近期讨论的议题,包括对乌克兰的支持、对中国经济行为的担忧,以及全球经济面临的逆风。但特朗普的贸易策略——许多经济学家认为这是对全球经济稳定的最大威胁——将成为财政部长斯科特·贝森特与各国官员讨论的核心内容。 “We always talk about the issues that are front and center,” François-Philippe Champagne, Canada’s finance minister, said at an opening news conference on Tuesday, noting that during recent meetings with American officials in Washington, “there was always tension around tariffs.” “我们总是讨论最核心、最紧迫的问题,”加拿大财政部长弗朗索瓦-菲利普·尚帕涅在周二的开幕新闻发布会上表示,他还指出,在最近与美国官员在华盛顿的会谈中,“关税问题始终是一个紧张的焦点。” Making the case that economic stability is important for consumers, investors and businesses, Mr. Champagne added: “A free and fair and a rules-based multilateral trading system is a system in which we all win.” 尚帕涅强调经济稳定对消费者、投资者和企业都至关重要,并补充道:“一个自由、公平、以规则为基础的多边贸易体系,是一个让我们所有人都能受益的体系。” Mr. Bessent, who skipped a gathering of the Group of 20 finance ministers in February, will appear at the international forum for the first time and at a particularly tenuous moment. 贝森特缺席了今年2月的二十国集团财政部长会议,这将是他首次出席这一国际论坛,而且是在一个尤其微妙的时刻。 Mr. Bessent plans to make the case that countries need to get “back to basics” and take steps to address “imbalances and nonmarket practices,” according to a Treasury Department spokesman. Mr. Bessent is also expected to prioritize expressing the Trump administration’s concerns, which are widely shared among the Group of 7 nations, about China’s excess industrial capacity, according to a person briefed on the U.S. position. The Group of 7 is made up of the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan. 据美国财政部发言人表示,贝森特计划阐明,各国需要“回归基本原则”,并采取措施应对“失衡与非市场行为”。据一位了解美方立场的人士透露,贝森特还预计将优先表达特朗普政府对中国产能过剩的担忧,而这一担忧在七国集团国家中也被广泛认同。七国集团成员包括:美国、加拿大、英国、法国、德国、意大利和日本。 Since taking office, Mr. Trump has upended the global trading system with a blizzard of tariffs. He imposed a 10 percent universal tax on almost every trading partner, in addition to 25 percent tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, cars and car parts. He raised tariffs on China to a punishing 145 percent in April before reducing them to 30 percent this month in order to allow Beijing and Washington to negotiate a trade deal. 自上任以来,特朗普通过一系列关税政策颠覆了全球贸易体系。他对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收了10%的普遍税率,并对进口钢铁、铝、汽车及汽车零部件加征了25%的关税。4月,他将对中国的关税提高到了惊人的145%,但在本月将其降至30%,以便让北京和华盛顿能够进行贸易谈判。 In April, Mr. Trump hit dozens of countries with “reciprocal” tariffs before pausing those levies for 90 days to allow for trade negotiations. Mr. Bessent and other Trump officials have said the administration is working to strike deals by July 8 with 18 to 24 trading partners, including Argentina, Malaysia, Israel, Switzerland, India, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand. 4月,特朗普对几十个国家征收了“对等”关税,随后暂停了这些关税90天,以进行贸易谈判。贝森特和其他特朗普政府官员表示,政府正努力在7月8日之前与18到24个贸易伙伴达成协议,其中包括阿根廷、马来西亚、以色列、瑞士、印度、日本、越南、韩国和泰国。 The United States and the European Union have also been negotiating over trade terms, though tensions between the governments remain high. 美国和欧盟也一直在就贸易条款进行谈判,尽管双方政府之间的关系仍然十分紧张。 On Sunday, Mr. Bessent warned that higher tariffs could kick in if negotiations with those nations faltered during the 90-day pause. 周日,贝森特警告称,如果在90天关税暂停期内与这些国家的谈判失败,可能会恢复更高的关税。 “I would expect that everyone would come and negotiate in good faith,” Mr. Bessent said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” warning that countries that do not will get letters with new U.S. tariff rates. 贝森特在NBC《会见媒体》节目中表示:“我希望每个国家都能本着诚意来进行谈判,”并警告说,不这样做的国家将收到美国新的关税率通知函。 通过加征关税,特朗普总统颠覆了全球贸易体系。 The compacted time frame could result in trade deals that are quite modest, with countries perhaps agreeing to reduce tariffs on a few products and promising to collaborate in the future in other areas. 由于时间紧迫,最终产生的贸易协议可能相对较为简单,各国或许会同意减少某些产品的关税,并承诺未来在其他领域展开合作。 One model may be the agreement with Britain that the administration announced with great fanfare this month. The deal was quite limited compared with traditional trade pacts. It opened British markets for American beef and ethanol and rolled back American tariffs on British steel and cars. The governments also pledged to discuss digital trade, economic security and other trade matters in the future. But the governments declined to say when the pact would go into effect, and it is not legally binding. 一个可能的模式是本月美国政府大肆宣扬的与英国达成的协议。与传统的贸易协定相比,那项协议相当有限。它为美国牛肉和乙醇打开了英国市场,并取消了美国对英国钢铁和汽车的关税。两国政府还承诺未来将讨论数字贸易、经济安全以及其他贸易事务。但两国政府未透露该协议何时生效,并且该协议没有法律约束力。 While these deals are being hammered out, trade with the United States feels deeply uncertain for many parts of the globe. Mr. Bessent said on CNN on Sunday that the United States was focused on completing agreements with a short list of partners, and that other parts of the world, like Central America or Africa, could see their tariff rates set through regional deals instead. 虽然这些协议正在敲定之中,但对全球许多地区来说,与美国的贸易却充满了不确定性。贝森特周日在CNN上表示,美国的重点是完成与一小部分合作伙伴的协议,而世界其他地区,如中美洲或非洲,可能会通过地区协议来确定关税税率。 A person briefed on the U.S. preparations for the Group of 7 summit said it was unlikely that any additional deals would be announced this week. 一位了解美国为七国集团峰会所做准备的知情人士表示,本周不太可能宣布任何新的协议。 After a meeting between American and Chinese officials in Geneva this month that both sides proclaimed a success, the U.S. and Chinese governments are also starting to communicate more frequently in an effort to make progress on their trade spats. But the countries have significant issues to surmount before higher tariffs are set to snap back into effect between them in early August. 在本月美国和中国官员在日内瓦举行一次会议后,双方都宣称会议取得了成功,美中两国政府也开始更频繁地沟通,力图在贸易争端上取得进展。但两国之间仍然存在重大问题需要克服,否则高额关税将在8月初恢复生效。 Mr. Bessent has tried to strike a pragmatic tone when dealing with foreign counterparts. In a speech last month on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Mr. Bessent maintained that the United States was not retreating from the global stage. 贝森特在与外国官员打交道时试图保持务实的态度。在上个月国际货币基金组织和世界银行春季会议期间的一个演讲中,贝森特表示,美国并没有从全球舞台上撤退。 “America First does not mean America alone,” Mr. Bessent said. “To the contrary, it is a call for deeper collaboration and mutual respect among trade partners.” “美国优先并不意味着美国要孤立行事,”贝森特说。“相反,这是呼吁贸易伙伴之间更深层次的合作和相互尊重。” However, many of America’s traditional allies and its largest trading partners remain on edge. Although Mr. Trump has demonstrated a willingness to walk back some of his trade measures, the scale and scope of the tariffs that he has already announced have dwarfed those from his first term. 然而,美国的许多传统盟友及其最大的贸易伙伴仍然感到不安。尽管特朗普表现出在某些贸易措施上做出让步的意愿,但他目前已宣布的关税,在规模和范围上已经远远超过了他第一任期时的水平。 “The big question facing the global economy is effectively a self-inflicted wound,” said Jay C. Shambaugh, who served as the Treasury under secretary for international affairs in the Biden administration. “The biggest thing everyone is worried about is to what extent is a tariff fight that we started going to disrupt the global economy.” “全球经济面临的最大问题实际上是一次自我造成的伤害,”曾任拜登政府财政部国际事务副部长的杰伊·C·香博表示。“大家最担心的,就是我们发起的这场关税战将在多大程度上扰乱全球经济。” Alan Rappeport是时报驻华盛顿的经济政策记者。 他负责报道财政部并撰写有关税收、贸易和财政事务的文章。 Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻,常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
王月眉2025年5月21日在伊斯兰堡去年的阅兵排练期间,巴基斯坦空军飞行了中国制造的歼-10C战斗机。 Aamir Qureshi/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images When Pakistan said it had shot down multiple Indian fighter jets earlier this month, ripples from that claim stretched all the way to the South China Sea, to Taiwan. 巴基斯坦本月初宣称击落了多架印度战斗机,这一说法的涟漪效应一直延伸到南海,波及台湾。 The Pakistani forces were flying Chinese-made J-10C fighters during the four-day conflict with India, and officials said Chinese missiles had brought down Indian planes. 在与印度发生的四天冲突中,巴基斯坦空军驾驶中国制造的歼-10C战斗机,而且巴方官员称,巴基斯坦用中国的导弹击落了印度战机。 The J-10 jets, which Chinese media have dubbed the “fighter of national pride,” have often been used in Chinese military exercises to menace Taiwan, the self-governing democracy that Beijing claims as its own. But they had not been battle-tested, leaving open the question of how well they would perform in actual combat. 被中国媒体称为“大国重器”的歼-10战斗机经常出现在中国威胁台湾的军事演习中(中国政府称自己对这个民主自治的地区拥有主权)。但该战机此前没有经受过实战检验,它在实战中表现如何曾是个无法回答的问题。 In China, commentators declared that question now answered. 中国的军事评论员宣称,这个问题现在有了答案。 “Taiwanese experts say the Taiwanese military has no chance against the J-10C,” The Global Times, a nationalist tabloid, crowed on Monday. “台湾专家称台军在歼-10C面前难以抗衡,”民族主义小报《环球时报》周一扬扬自得地写道。 The Chinese government has not directly confirmed the Pakistani claims, and India has not publicly confirmed losing any aircraft. But on Saturday, China’s state broadcaster declared on social media that J-10C jets had recently “achieved combat results for the first time,” with the post including a hashtag related to the India-Pakistan conflict. 中国政府尚未直接证实巴基斯坦的说法,印度也没有公开承认损失了任何战机。但中国国家电视台上周六在社交媒体上发帖称,“近期,我国外销型战机歼-10CE首次取得实战战果。”帖子还给了一个与印巴冲突有关的标签。 Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the Chinese military, wrote in an op-ed article that the jets’ success would boost Chinese confidence in future territorial disputes over Taiwan and the South China Sea. 从中国军队退役的周波大校在一篇专栏文章中写道,歼-10C战机的成功将增强中国在未来的台海、以及南海领土争端中作战的信心。 “The real effect is actually for the world, including Taiwanese authorities, to see how China’s defense industry has developed by leaps and bounds,” Mr. Zhou said in an interview. “This is for them to think about.” “真正的效果实际上是让包括台湾当局在内的世界看到中国国防工业的突飞猛进,”周波在一次采访中说。“这是要让他们考虑的东西。” 中国领导人习近平今年2月在北京与巴基斯坦总统阿西夫·阿里·扎尔达里举行了会晤。 Further stoking Chinese pride were reports that some of the Indian jets that Pakistan said it had downed were manufactured by France. Some analysts have cast the conflict as a proxy showdown between Western and Chinese arms capabilities, since India has been stepping up its purchases from the West, while Pakistan has drastically increased its military purchases from China. 进一步激发中国人自豪感的是,有报道称,巴基斯坦声称击落的一些印度战机是法国制造的。有些分析人士将印巴冲突看作是西方与中国军力的代理决战,因为印度一直在增加从西方的军火采购,而巴基斯坦则极大地增加了从中国的军火采购。 In addition to jets, Pakistan also used Chinese-made air-defense systems and long-range air-to-air PL-15 missiles in the clash with India, according to security officials and Syed Muhammad Ali, a senior Pakistani defense analyst. Pakistan claimed that the PL-15 missiles hit their targets, though India has said that they did not. 除战机外,巴基斯坦在与印度的冲突中还使用了中国制造的防空系统和远程空对空霹雳-15导弹,据巴基斯坦安全官员、以及高级国防分析师赛义德·穆罕默德·阿里的说法。巴基斯坦称霹雳-15导弹击中了目标,但印度则说导弹没有击中目标。 The Chinese military’s lack of real-world combat experience — it has not fought a war in more than 40 years — is a longstanding source of concern for some in Beijing. But China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has made modernizing the military a priority. China has increased its defense spending even as economic growth has slowed, and it is now the fourth-largest arms exporter globally. 中国军队缺乏实战经验,40多年来没打过仗,长期以来,这是中国政府的一项担忧。但中国领导人习近平已将军队现代化作为优先事项。即使在经济增长放缓的情况下,中国的国防开支仍在增加,中国现在已是全球第四大武器出口国。 Chinese and Taiwanese analysts alike said the recent conflict suggested that Chinese weapons were now on par with Western ones. 中国和台湾的分析人士都表示,最近这场冲突表明,中国的武器现在已和西方的不相上下。 “This is the most convincing appearance of the Chinese weapon system on the world stage ” Hu Xijin, former editor in chief of The Global Times, wrote in a blog post. “这是中国武器系统在世界舞台最有说服力的亮相,”《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进在一篇博客文章中写道。 Mr. Hu added that the United States, having seen proof of China’s prowess, would be less likely to intervene on Taiwan’s behalf. 胡锡进还表示,美国看到中国实力的证明后,在台海冲突中帮助台湾的可能性会减少。 Some in Taiwan have expressed similar concerns. Li Cheng-chieh, a retired major general in the Taiwanese military, said in an interview that the Pakistani air force’s experience suggested that Taiwanese planes would have “little chance of survival” against Chinese ones. 台湾也有一些人士表示了类似的担忧。从台湾军队退役的栗正杰少将在接受采访时说,巴基斯坦空军的表现说明,台军战机在中国战机面前几乎“是死路一条”。 “Whether our fighter jets would even have the opportunity to take off is a question mark,” he said. “我们的战斗机是否甚至有机会起飞,都还是个问号,”他说。 中国军用飞机在去年的中国珠海展览会上。中国战斗机在最近的印度和巴基斯坦的冲突中接受了实战检验。 Notably, amid the online nationalism, the Chinese government itself has been more reserved, focusing more on touting Chinese military advances in general. State media did not confirm the use of the Chinese jets in the conflict until more than a week after Pakistan said it had successfully deployed them. 值得注意的是,在网络民族主义情绪高涨的情况下,中国政府本身的态度一直更为谨慎,更多聚焦于宣传中国军力的整体进步。巴基斯坦宣布中国战机在冲突中取得成功一周多后,中国官媒才证实中国战机参与了冲突。 Beijing’s restraint may stem partly from wanting to avoid imperiling a recent diplomatic thaw with India. The two giants have in recent months agreed to resume direct flights and cooperate on trade issues, after their relations fell apart with a deadly clash over a disputed land border in 2020. 中国政府克制的部分原因也许是不想危及近期与印度在外交上的缓和。2020年,中印两国因陆地边界争议发生致命冲突后关系破裂,最近几个月才同意恢复直航和在贸易问题上合作。 This month’s conflict may also have raised questions about other Chinese equipment even as it seemed to show off the strength of its fighter jets. The Indian government said in a statement last week that its air force had “bypassed and jammed Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied air defense systems” in “just 23 minutes, demonstrating India’s technological edge.” 本月的印巴冲突在看似展示中国战机实力的同时,可能也引发了人们对其他中国装备的质疑。印度政府上周在一份声明中说,印度空军“仅用了23分钟就绕过并干扰了巴基斯坦由中国提供的防空系统,展示了印度在技术上的优势”。 On Monday, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry declined to address Indian claims that China had also provided Pakistan with active air-defense and satellite support during the clash. 印度称中国在冲突期间还向巴基斯坦提供了主动防空和卫星支持,中国外交部发言人周一拒绝对这个说法发表评论。 “Both India and Pakistan are important neighbors of China,” the spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said. “印度和巴基斯坦都是中国的重要邻国,”发言人毛宁说。 Ou Si-fu, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that Taiwan should not overreact to the recent incident. He noted that it was not yet verified that Chinese-made PL-15 missiles had actually shot down the planes. 台湾国防安全研究院的研究员欧锡富表示,台湾不应对最近的事件反应过度。他指出,目前尚未证实大陆制造的霹雳-15导弹是否真的击落了战机。 Still, he acknowledged that the recent developments should be closely studied. 尽管如此,他承认近期的事态发展值得认真研究。 “It’s like an alarm clock, reminding everyone not to be careless,” he said. “Taiwan has no capital to be careless.” “它像是一个警钟,提醒大家不要漫不经心,”他说。“台湾没有漫不经心的资本。” Siyi Zhao自北京、Amy Chang Chien自台北、Salman Masood自伊斯兰堡对本文有研究贡献。 王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者,常驻北京,撰写关于中国的崛起及雄心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
艾莎2025年5月21日宁德时代新能源科技有限公司的高管们周二在香港证券交易所。 Peter Parks/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images It is the world’s biggest maker of batteries for electric cars. It has plans to expand its business globally. And it is one of China’s most strategically important technology companies. 宁德时代是世界上最大的电动汽车电池制造商,它计划在全球范围内拓展业务。它也是中国最具战略意义的科技企业之一。 But when Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd., or CATL, started selling shares for the first time in Hong Kong on Tuesday, surging 16 percent, American investors were largely shut out. It was the world’s biggest stock listing so far this year, according to the data provider Dealogic. 宁德时代新能源科技有限公司(简称“宁德时代”)周二在香港首次公开发行股票后,股价飙升了16%,但美国投资者们却基本上不能参股。据数据提供商Dealogic,宁德时代在香港上市是今年全球到目前为止最大一笔首次公开募股。 Tensions between China and the United States pushed CATL to ban U.S. onshore investors from its share sale, the first outside of the Chinese mainland, where it is listed in the city of Shenzhen. 中美紧张关系迫使宁德时代禁止美国境内投资者参与公司在中国大陆以外的首次公开募股,该公司此前已在深圳上市。 The fact that some of the world’s most active investors were absent from one of the most anticipated trading debuts so far this year underscored the deepening rift between the United States and China. 世界上一些最活跃的投资者缺席今年到目前为止最受期盼的首次公开募股之一,这凸显了美国与中国之间日益加深的分歧。 CATL has found itself caught in the crossfire as Washington and Beijing have lobbed sanctions, blacklists and tariffs at each other. It was labeled a Chinese military company by the Pentagon. U.S. lawmakers called on its Wall Street bankers to back out of the Hong Kong listing. And it has been hit with tariffs on the batteries it makes. 随着美国政府和中国政府相互制裁、将对方国家的公司列入黑名单,并向对方的产品征收关税,宁德时代发现自己受到连累。宁德时代被五角大楼贴上中国军工企业的标签。美国的国会议员公开要求华尔街银行家不参与宁德时代在香港的股票发行。宁德时代生产的电池也被征收了关税。 The CATL Hong Kong stock sale marks a dramatic reversal from a decade ago when Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce giant, elicited cheers from traders as it went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2014. The company raised $21.8 billion, delivering a big payday for Wall Street banks and minting mom-and-pop investors. 与十年前相比,宁德时代在香港发行股票标志着一种剧烈转变。中国电商巨头阿里巴巴2014年在纽约证券交易所上市时曾博得了交易员们的热烈欢迎。阿里巴巴在纽约上市筹集了218亿美元,为华尔街的银行带来了巨额收益,为一些散户投资者创造了财富。 “We are headed toward full financial decoupling with China,” said Stephen Roach, an economist and a former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia based in Hong Kong. “Congress is driving the process of disengagement,” he said. The shares of Chinese companies that are traded in the United States could be the next thing to come under fire, he added. “我们正走向与中国的彻底金融脱钩,”经济学家斯蒂芬·罗奇说,他曾在香港担任摩根士丹利亚洲区主管。“国会正在推动脱离的进程,”他说。他还说,在美国上市的中国公司的股票可能是下一个打击目标。 The U.S. government has targeted Chinese companies as it moves to limit China from accessing American markets out of national security concerns, a policy that President Trump began in his first term and which President Joseph R. Biden Jr. continued. 随着美国政府出于国家安全考虑把中国企业作为打击目标,政府已采取措施限制中国公司进入美国股市。这项政策是特朗普在其第一任期内开始的,拜登总统延续了这一政策。 Mr. Trump has accused China of exploiting American investors to finance its military, attempting to isolate China with colossal tariffs that were only suspended after global markets convulsed. 特朗普指责中国把美国投资者提供的资金用在发展军力方面。他试图用征收巨额关税的方法来孤立中国,但在全球股市出现动荡后暂停了这个做法。 A Ford Motor battery project in Michigan that licenses CATL’s technology has drawn local and national political fire. Lawmakers in Congress have introduced legislation that would withdraw subsidies from U.S. companies that manufacture batteries using Chinese expertise. 福特汽车获得宁德时代的技术许可,在密歇根州建了一个电池厂,这在当地和全美引发了政治上的抨击。已有国会议员将一项法案提交讨论,如果通过,将对使用中国技术生产电池的美国公司取消补贴。 Yet even as the battle between the two superpowers creates financial collateral damage, CATL raised $4.6 billion ahead of its secondary listing in Hong Kong, more than any other public listing this year. The stock was sold for $263 Hong Kong dollars a share, or about $33.62 U.S. dollars. Its biggest investors include Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund, the Chinese firm Hillhouse Capital Management Group and Oaktree Capital Management, the American asset management firm. 尽管这两个超级大国之间的较量已造成了附带金融损失,但宁德时代在香港二次上市前仍筹集了46亿美元,超过了今年其他的所有全球公开募股。宁德时代的股票发行价为每股263港元,约合33.62美元。最大的投资者包括科威特主权财富基金、中国高瓴资本管理集团,以及美国资产管理公司橡树资本管理。 CATL moved to hive off American investors ahead of the listing as tensions between the United States and China spiked. It said last week that it had changed the share sale to what is known as a Reg S offering, which prevents the sale of stock to onshore U.S. investors and exempts it from having to make certain regulatory filings in the United States. 由于中美关系紧张,宁德时代在上市前就已把美国投资者隔离在外。公司上周表示,已改为使用所谓的“S规则”在香港发行股票,这意味着不得向美国境内的投资者出售股票,也让公司不必在上市前向美国提交某些监管文件。 The company did not explain why it changed the structure of its listing, but it has said that geopolitical tensions are among the risk factors to its business. “We face risks associated with changes in trade policies or tariff regulations,” it said in a regulatory filing. 虽然宁德时代没有解释改变上市结构的原因,但表示地缘政治紧张局面是开展业务面临的风险因素之一。“我们面临与贸易政策或关税法规变化相关的风险,”公司在一份监管文件中写道。 In response to the Pentagon’s designation of the company as having both military and commercial technology, CATL said that it had “never engaged in any military-related businesses or activities” and had “proactively engaged with the Department of Defense to address the false designation.” 针对五角大楼认定该公司同时拥有军事和商业技术,宁德时代称自己“从未从事任何与军事相关的业务或活动”,并“已主动与美国国防部交涉,以澄清这一错误的定性”。 Most large American institutions will still be able to trade in CATL shares if they invest through offshore accounts. But that would still leave a hole. Some 10 percent of American investors would have probably invested in its stock if not prevented from doing so, said Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese finance at the University of California, San Diego. 大多数美国的大型投资机构仍可通过离岸账户交易宁德时代的股票。但这仍会造成市场缺口。加州大学圣地亚哥分校的中国金融专家史宗瀚说,如果不被禁止参股的话,约有10%的美国投资者可能会投资宁德时代的股票。 “I think that this is a major milestone,” said Mr. Shih, adding that it was likely the start of a broader trend. “This will apply to many Chinese hardware and even some software producers, thus cutting out U.S. investors from some potentially profitable opportunities.” “我认为这是一个重要的里程碑,”史宗瀚说,并表示这可能是一个更广泛趋势的开始。“这种做法会用在许多中国硬件甚至一些软件生产商上,让美国投资者无法参与一些潜在的盈利机会。” Jack Ewing自纽约对本文有报道贡献。 艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长,报道中国经济和社会新闻。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ANATOLY KURMANAEV, ANTON TROIANOVSKI2025年5月19日周四,库皮扬斯克附近的一名乌克兰第14机步旅士兵。 Tyler Hicks/The New York Times President Vladimir V. Putin revealed no breakthroughs after a two-hour call with President Trump on Monday, telling reporters that he was ready to negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine but repeating his demand for broad concessions before Russia stops fighting. 周一,在与特朗普总统进行了两个小时的通话后,俄罗斯总统普京没有透露任何突破性进展。他告诉记者,他准备与乌克兰谈判达成和平协议,但再次要求对方做出广泛让步,否则俄罗斯不会停止战斗。 Mr. Putin said he had told Mr. Trump that Russia was “ready to work with the Ukrainian side on a memorandum on a possible future peace agreement.” Mr. Putin said the conversation, the third known call between the presidents since Mr. Trump returned to the White House in January, was “very meaningful and quite frank.” 普京表示,他告诉特朗普,俄罗斯“准备与乌克兰方面就未来可能达成的和平协议达成备忘录”。普京说,这是特朗普今年1月重返白宫以来两国总统之间已知的第三次通话,“非常有意义,也非常坦率。” But the Russian president made it clear that he was not budging from his basic resistance to an immediate cease-fire if it is not accompanied by concessions to Russia. At the end of his three-minute statement, Putin repeated his mantra that a peace deal needs to “remove the root causes of this crisis,” a reference to Russia’s demand for wide-ranging influence over Ukraine. 但是,俄罗斯总统明确表示,除非对俄方做出让步,否则他不会改变反对立即停火的基本立场。在三分钟的声明结束时,普京重申了他的的原则,即和平协议需要“消除这场危机的根源”,指的是俄罗斯要求对乌克兰施加广泛影响。 “Russia is also in favor of a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine crisis,” Mr. Putin said in his brief statement to reporters in Sochi, Russia. “We just need to identify the most effective ways of moving toward peace.” “俄罗斯也支持和平解决乌克兰危机,”普京在俄罗斯索契向记者发表简短声明时说。“我们只需要找到通往和平的最有效途径。” Shortly after Mr. Putin’s statement, Mr. Trump offered a more optimistic take on the call in a social media post, saying it “went very well,” and that Russia and Ukraine would “immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War.” 在普京发表声明后不久,特朗普在社交媒体上发表了一篇更乐观的帖子,称通话“进行得非常顺利”,俄罗斯和乌克兰将“立即开始谈判,实现停火,更重要的是,结束战争”。 Mr. Putin said his aides might disclose more details of the call later in the day. The Russian president spoke to reporters at a center for gifted children that he was visiting on Monday and where he held the call with Mr. Trump. 普京说,他的助手可能会在当天晚些时候透露更多的电话细节。周一,俄罗斯总统在他访问的一个天才儿童中心对记者发表了讲话,他与特朗普就是在那里进行了通话。 The call was highly anticipated, coming amid growing impatience in the Trump administration with Mr. Putin’s refusal to agree to an immediate cease-fire, despite Ukraine’s readiness to do so. 这次通话备受期待,因为普京在乌克兰已经准备停火的情况下拒绝同意立即停火已经让特朗普政府愈发感到不耐烦。 Mr. Trump took office in January promising to bring a swift end to fighting in Ukraine, but soon encountered the deep and seemingly irreconcilable differences between the warring countries. Mr. Trump has turned to a combination of threats and inducements — most of them unfulfilled — to get Russia and Ukraine stop fighting. But both sides believe that time is on their side. 特朗普今年1月上任时承诺迅速结束乌克兰的战斗,但很快就遭遇了两个交战国之间深刻且看似不可调和的分歧。为了让俄罗斯和乌克兰停止战斗,特朗普采取了威胁和引诱相结合的方式——其中大部分引诱都没有实现。但双方都认为时间站在他们这一边。 In his dealings with Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin has tried to appease the U.S. president by appearing to negotiate peace, but without offering any meaningful concessions to Kyiv. Given his repeated claims that Russia has the means to obtain all its goals in the war, making concessions might risk making Mr. Putin look weak. 在与特朗普的往来中,普京试图安抚这位美国总统,表现出和平谈判的意向,但没有向基辅做出任何有意义的让步。鉴于普京一再声称,俄罗斯有能力实现其在战争中的所有目标,做出让步可能会让普京显得软弱。 On Monday, Vice President JD Vance questioned Mr. Putin’s position. 周一,副总统万斯对普京的立场提出质疑。 “I’m not sure that Vladimir Putin has a strategy himself for how to unwind the war,” Mr. Vance told reporters on Air Force Two. “He’s got a million men under arms; he’s re-engineered his entire economy. What used to be manufacturing facilities making products for people to use in their civilian life, they’re now making tank shells and artillery shells and drones.” “我不确定弗拉基米尔·普京本人是否有一个如何结束战争的战略,”万斯在空军二号上对记者说。“他手下有100万人;他重新设计了整个经济。过去制造民用产品生产设施,现在成了制造坦克和火炮弹药和无人机的生产设施。” The inherent contradictions of Mr. Putin’s strategy were on display over the weekend. In an apparent show of strength, Russia unleashed deadly drone strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine on Saturday and Sunday, even though Mr. Trump has criticized such attacks as counterproductive. 普京战略的内在矛盾在周末得到了体现。上周六和上周日,俄罗斯对乌克兰的民用目标发动了致命的无人机袭击,显然是为了展示实力,尽管特朗普批评这种袭击适得其反。 周日,基辅郊外一栋在俄罗斯无人机袭击中受损的建筑。 On Saturday, Russian attacks killed at least 14 Ukrainian civilians. On Sunday, at least one civilian died after Russia targeted Kyiv with one of the largest drone attacks of the war. 上周六,俄罗斯的袭击造成至少14名乌克兰平民死亡。周日,俄罗斯对基辅发动了开战以来最大规模的无人机袭击,造成至少一名平民死亡。 Mr. Trump has not commented on the latest attacks. In late April, however, he issued a rare rebuke of Mr. Putin for launching a similar attack. 特朗普没有对最近的袭击发表评论。然而,在4月下旬,他罕见地谴责了普京发起的类似攻击。 “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing,” Mr. Trump wrote. “Vladimir, STOP!” “我对俄罗斯对基辅的空袭感到不满。没有必要,而且时机非常糟糕,”特朗普写道。“弗拉基米尔,住手!” Mr. Trump said in his post on Truth social that after speaking to Mr. Putin on Monday he subsequently spoke to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and his European allies. 特朗普在Truth social上发表的帖子中表示,在周一与普京通话后,他随后与乌克兰总统泽连斯基及其欧洲盟友进行了通话。 Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain said in a statement that he spoke with leaders of the United States, Italy, France and Germany on Sunday night to discuss forcing Russia to accept an unconditional ceasefire, and the use of new sanctions “if Russia failed to engage seriously.” 英国首相斯塔默在一份声明中表示,他在上周日晚上与美国、意大利、法国和德国的领导人进行了交谈,讨论了迫使俄罗斯接受无条件停火的问题,以及“如果俄罗斯不认真参与”,将采取新的制裁措施。 The phone calls come amid a series of high-wire diplomatic maneuvers by Ukraine and Russia that have raised hopes for a negotiated solution to a conflict that has killed or maimed more than a million soldiers. These efforts, however, have also exposed just how far apart the two sides remain. 在这些通话的同时,乌克兰和俄罗斯完成了一系列微妙且高风险的外交活动,这给通过谈判解决这场已造成100多万士兵伤亡的冲突带来了希望。然而,这些努力也暴露出双方的分歧仍然很大。 On Friday in Istanbul, representatives from Russia and Ukraine met for the first direct talks in three years. In the brief meeting, the sides agreed to the largest prisoner exchange of the war, and to detail their conditions for a cease-fire. 上周五,俄罗斯和乌克兰的代表在伊斯坦布尔举行了三年来的首次直接会谈。在这次简短的会谈中,双方同意进行开战以来规模最大的一次战俘交换,并详细说明了停火的条件。 泽连斯基总统在良十四世教宗的就职弥撒上与美国副总统万斯打招呼。 On Sunday, Mr. Zelensky met in Rome with Mr. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, after the three attended Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural Mass. The meeting was a win for Mr. Zelensky, who appeared to improve his relations with Mr. Vance after a contentious White House meeting in February. 上周日,泽连斯基在罗马会见了万斯和国务卿鲁比奥,此前三人参加了良十四教宗的就职弥撒。这次会面对泽连斯基来说是一次胜利,在2月那次爆发争吵的白宫会面后,他似乎改善了与万斯的关系。 Mr. Putin, has been flexing his own diplomatic muscle this month, in an apparent attempt to show Russia’s growing alliances. He has hosted more than 20 heads of state, including the leaders of China and Brazil, for a military parade in Moscow. Since then, he has had a high number of meetings and phone calls with leaders of developing countries. 普京本月一直在展示自己的外交实力,显然是为了展示俄罗斯日益壮大的联盟。他接待了20多位国家元首参加莫斯科的阅兵式,包括中国和巴西领导人。此后,他与发展中国家领导人进行了多次会晤和通话。 Ukraine and its European allies have been demanding that Russia accept an unconditional 30-day cease-fire before beginning peace negotiations. Mr. Putin has demanded the opposite, saying that negotiations over what he calls the “root causes” of the war must take place before his forces, who are on the offensive in Ukraine, lay down arms. 乌克兰及其欧洲盟国一直要求俄罗斯在开始和平谈判之前接受30天的无条件停火。普京的要求正好相反,他说,必须就他所说的战争的“根本原因”进行谈判,然后他在乌克兰处于攻势的部队才能放下武器。 Mr. Trump in effect had sided with Mr. Putin. Last week he publicly told Mr. Zelensky to start talks with Russia, precipitating a series of events that led to the meeting in Istanbul. 特朗普实际上站在了普京一边。上周,他公开要求泽连斯基开始与俄罗斯谈判,引发了一系列事件,最终促成了在伊斯坦布尔的会晤。 The Kremlin doubled down on its insistence for negotiations before any cease-fire, hours before the call on Monday, tempering expectations of a breakthrough. 在周一的电话会议召开前几个小时,克里姆林宫再次重申在谈判前不会停火,从而降低了取得突破性进展的可能性。 “There’s meticulous and perhaps, in some areas, prolonged work ahead,” Mr. Peskov told reporters, referring to a diplomatic solution to the war. 佩斯科夫在谈及用外交途径解决这场战争时对记者说,“未来还有细致的工作要做,在某些领域可能是长期的。” 本月早些时候,俄罗斯总统普京与中国领导人习近平在莫斯科。 Mr. Vance suggested that Mr. Trump on Monday may offer Mr. Putin economic incentives to accept some concessions on Ukraine, and move the peace talks forward. 万斯表示,特朗普周一可能会向普京提供经济上的激励,让他接受在乌克兰问题上的一些让步,从而推动和平谈判。 Mr. Trump also focused on trade after the call. “Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree,” he wrote on Truth Social. “There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED.” 特朗普在通话后还重点谈到了贸易问题。“当这场灾难性的‘大屠杀’结束后,俄罗斯希望与美国进行大规模贸易,我同意,”他在Truth Social上写道。他说:“俄罗斯有很大的机会创造大量就业和财富。它的潜力是无限的。” Mr. Putin has dangled potential business deals, including on energy and rare earths metals, as an enticement for dropping sanctions and normalizing the relationship between Russia and the United States. But the Trump administration has said that peace in Ukraine needs to come first. 普京以包括能源和稀土金属在内的潜在商业交易作为解除制裁和俄美关系正常化的诱饵。但特朗普政府表示,乌克兰的和平需要放在首位。 “We realize there’s a bit of an impasse here, and I think the president’s going to say to President Putin, look, are you serious? Are you real about this?” Mr. Vance said on Air Force Two, on his way back to Washington from Rome. “Look, there are a lot of economic benefits to thawing relations between Russia and the rest of the world, but you’re not going to get those benefits if you keep on killing a lot of innocent people.” “我们意识到这里有点僵局,我认为总统会对普京总统说,你是认真的吗?这件事上你是真心的吗?”万斯在从罗马返回华盛顿的途中在“空军二号”上说。“你看,解冻俄罗斯与世界其他国家之间的关系会带来很多经济利益,但如果你继续杀害大量无辜的人,你就不会得到这些好处。” Anatoly Kurmanaev报道俄罗斯及其在入侵乌克兰后的转变。 Anton Troianovski是时报莫斯科分社社长。他报道关于俄罗斯、东欧、高加索和中亚地区的新闻。 翻译:晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
JENNY GROSS, AMANDA HOLPUCH2025年5月20日本月,来自巴基斯坦的法律系学生哈桑·卡迈勒·瓦图在加州大学伯克利分校校园内留影。 Felix Uribe for The New York Times Hassan Kamal Wattoo, 25, had received threatening calls for months from Pakistani authorities angry about critical articles he wrote. When he earned a scholarship to study law at the University of California, Berkeley, he jumped at the opportunity to leave Pakistan, and thought he might work in the United States after that. 25岁的哈桑·卡迈勒·瓦图曾在数月不断接到巴基斯坦当局的恐吓电话,他撰写的批评性文章惹怒了他们。在获得加州大学伯克利分校的法律专业奖学金后,他迫不及待地抓住了这个离开巴基斯坦的机会,并考虑毕业后留美工作。 Then came the detentions in the United States of noncitizen students for participating in pro-Palestinian protests, the arrest of a woman who had criticized Israel’s war in Gaza, the cancellations of hundreds of student visas with little or no explanation and what many have described as an assault by the Trump administration on science and academia. 后来,美国发生了一系列事件:非公民学生因参加亲巴勒斯坦抗议活动被拘留、一名批评以色列的加沙战争的女性被捕、数以百计学生签证被取消且基本没有给出解释,这一切被许多人视为特朗普政府攻击科学和学术界的行动。 Now, Mr. Wattoo said, he plans to return to Pakistan next week, after he receives his degree. His parents, worried about being harassed at the border, decided against traveling to Berkeley to attend his graduation on Friday, he said. 瓦图表示,他计划在获得学位后于下周返回巴基斯坦。他说,父母担心在边境遭到骚扰,决定不前往伯克利参加他周五的毕业典礼。 “That respect in the American system has kind of faded away and been replaced with this bitter animosity,” Mr. Wattoo said. He described the Trump administration’s tactics as “shockingly similar to what I’ve seen all my life and what I wanted to run away from.” “美国体制中的那种尊重已逐渐消失,取而代之的是强烈的敌意,”瓦图说。他认为特朗普政府的策略“与我一生所见、一心想逃离的东西惊人地相似”。 The New York Times asked international students at U.S. colleges and universities to share how the administration’s immigration policies had affected them, and 150 readers responded. The Times interviewed 20 of them, many from countries where the State Department has said that free speech is restricted. 《纽约时报》邀请美国高校的国际学生分享政府移民政策对他们的影响,150名读者回应,其中20人接受了采访,许多人来自被国务院认定言论自由受限的国家。 Some said they had canceled spring break or summer travel plans over fears that they might not be allowed back into the United States. Others said they now avoid speaking in public about divisive issues or participating in protests that they think could attract the attention of the authorities, such as those in support of Palestinians, labor rights or disability rights. 一些学生表示,因担心无法重返美国,他们已取消春假或暑期旅行计划;还有一些人则避免公开讨论争议性话题或参与可能吸引当局注意的抗议活动,如支持巴勒斯坦、劳工权益或残障权益的活动。 Many said that they had deleted social media profiles or unfollowed accounts belonging to activists. And several said they had applied to transfer to universities in Canada or Europe or were considering it. 许多人删除了社交媒体账号或取消关注活动人士的账户,还有人称已申请转学到加拿大或欧洲的大学,或正在考虑中。 Of course, there are about 1.1 million international students in the United States, and those interviewed by The Times do not necessarily reflect a representative sample. Nearly all of them said they were committed to staying to complete their degrees. Still, most of those The Times spoke to made clear that, for them, the idea of America as a pillar of free expression and intellectual openness had faded. 当然,美国约有110万名国际学生,接受采访的学生未必具有代表性。几乎所有人都表示会坚持完成学业,但多数人坦言,美国作为言论自由和学术开放支柱的形象,已在他们心中褪色。 Anton Dolmatov, a Ph.D. student at Rice University in Texas, said that it was jarring to see echoes of the fears he had grown up around in Russia emerge in the United States. 得克萨斯州莱斯大学博士生安东·多尔马托夫表示,他在美国看到了与自己在俄罗斯成长过程中经历的类似恐惧情绪,这令人不安。 在得克萨斯州攻读博士的安东·多尔马托夫表示,他在美国看到了一些与自己在俄罗斯成长过程中所经历的类似的恐惧情绪。“如果10年前有人告诉我会发生这种事,我是不会相信的,”他说。 Danielle Villasana for The New York Times As soon as Mr. Trump was elected in November, Mr. Dolmatov, 28, said, he started applying to transfer to schools in Britain because of concerns about what could happen to his student visa. 28岁的多尔马托夫称,自去年11月特朗普当选后,他因担心学生签证出现问题,开始申请转学到英国的学校。 He canceled plans to meet his parents in Turkey and a trip to a conference in London because he was concerned about not being allowed back into the United States. 他取消了在土耳其与父母会面和去伦敦参加学术会议的计划,唯恐无法返回美国。 “Just think: essentially to escape Russia, to find oneself in a situation where you also have to be concerned about lawlessness and not having your rights respected, for there not to be due process and arbitrary arrests,” Mr. Dolmatov said. “I wouldn’t believe it would happen if I was told it 10 years ago.” “试想一下,原本是为了逃离俄罗斯,却发现自己身处一个同样要担心无法无天、权利不受尊重、缺乏正当程序和任意逮捕的境地,”多尔马托夫说,“若10年前有人告诉我会发生这种事,我绝不会相信。” He said he had been accepted by three universities in Britain but was waiting to hear how much research funding they could offer. 他表示已被英国三所大学录取,目前在等待各校能提供多少研究经费的信息。 International students said recent detentions had stoked doubts about whether they could depend on constitutional free speech protections. 国际学生称,近期的拘留事件让他们怀疑是否还能依赖宪法对言论自由的保护。 In March, Mahmoud Khalil, a leader of pro-Palestinian demonstrations at Columbia University, was detained by federal agents and remains in custody in Louisiana. The same month, Rumeysa Ozturk, a Tufts University student who had written an article criticizing Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, was handcuffed by federal agents in plain clothes in front of her apartment building and held for six weeks. 3月,哥伦比亚大学亲巴勒斯坦示威活动领导人马哈茂德·哈利勒被联邦特工拘留,目前仍被关押在路易斯安那州;同月,塔夫茨大学学生鲁梅萨·厄兹图尔克因撰写批评以色列加沙军事行动的文章,在公寓楼前被便衣联邦特工戴上手铐,关押了六周。 One graduate student from Lebanon said that when she first arrived on her campus in Florida last year, she felt freer to speak out than she had in her home country, where she had received threats for criticizing Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia. But since Mr. Trump took office, she said, she no longer feels comfortable publicly discussing potentially sensitive issues. 一名来自黎巴嫩的研究生表示,去年刚到佛罗里达的校园时,她觉得比在祖国更能自由发声——在黎巴嫩,她曾因批评伊朗支持的真主党民兵组织而受到威胁。但她说,自特朗普执政以来,她不再敢公开讨论潜在敏感话题。 一名在佛罗里达州的黎巴嫩研究生表示,她感到“一直处于压力之中,不确定什么话能说、什么事能做”。 James Estrin/The New York Times “It’s made me feel stuck in a way, constantly stressed and unsure about what’s safe to say or do,” said the student, 23, who like others interviewed for this story requested anonymity because she feared being deported. “这让我感到被困住了,一直处于压力中,不确定什么话能说、什么事能做,”这位23岁的学生说(与其他接受采访者一样,她因担心被驱逐而要求匿名)。 A recent graduate who earned a film degree from a university in the western United States said the current climate reminded him of his home country, Singapore, where protests are illegal unless preapproved by the authorities. 一名刚从美国西部某大学获得电影学位的毕业生称,当前的氛围让他想起自己的祖国新加坡——未经当局批准的抗议活动在那里属于非法。 In recent weeks, he said, he avoided walking past two anti-Trump protests on campus for fear of even being photographed near them. The biggest draw of studying in the United States, for him, had been the freedom it offered to learn about making films without self-censoring. He no longer feels he can do that and is considering returning to Singapore, he said. 他说,最近几周,他甚至不敢走过校园里两场反特朗普抗议活动的附近区域,唯恐被拍到。对他而言,赴美留学的最大吸引力在于能自由学习电影制作而无需自我审查,如今他觉得无法再这样做,正考虑返回新加坡。 Changes implemented by the Trump administration have resulted in the cancellation of more than 1,800 visas for students at 238 universities as of May 12, according to an analysis by The Times. The administration reinstated more than 1,100 of the visas but has said it is working on a new system, which could result in some international students losing their legal status again. 《纽约时报》分析显示,截至5月12日,特朗普政府的政策已导致238所大学的1800多名学生签证被取消,其中1100多份签证得到重新签发,但政府称正在制定新系统,可能导致部分国际学生再次失去合法身份。 In response to questions from The Times about its crackdown on student visas, a White House spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, said that it was a privilege, not a right, to study in the United States. 针对《纽约时报》关于打击学生签证的提问,白宫发言人安娜·凯利表示,赴美留学是一种特权,而非权利。 Apparently referring to students who had been penalized for participating in pro-Palestinian protests, Ms. Kelly said that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “has the right to revoke visas for noncitizens pushing the propaganda of Hamas terrorists who have held Americans hostage.” 凯利显然指的是因参加亲巴勒斯坦抗议活动而受罚的学生,她说,国务卿马克·鲁比奥“有权撤销那些推动哈马斯恐怖分子宣传的非公民的签证,那些恐怖分子将美国人扣为人质”。 Despite the uncertainty over visas, many students said they still wanted to get jobs in America after graduation, and that they valued the diversity of U.S. campuses and the economic opportunities the country offered. 尽管签证存在不确定性,许多学生仍希望毕业后留美工作,并珍视美国校园的多元性和这个国家提供的经济机会。 Students who travel far from home in hopes of improving their career prospects and having a positive impact on the world “should be prepared to take on this risk, and that’s something I decided well before I even came here,” said Ryan Li, an 18-year-old Canadian studying at Georgetown University. He was not going to let the shifting political climate dissuade him from studying in the United States, he said. 18岁的加拿大留学生瑞安·李就读于乔治城大学,他说,为改善职业前景、希望对世界产生积极影响而远离家乡的学生“应该做好承担这种风险的准备,这是我来这里之前就决定的”。他表示,不会让不断变化的政治气候阻止自己在美国学习。 Halina Bennet对本文有报道贡献。 Jenny Gross是时报记者,负责报道突发新闻和其他话题。 Amanda Holpuch报道突发新闻和其他话题。 翻译:经雷 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
NEAL E. BOUDETTE2025年5月20日位于密歇根州兰辛的通用汽车工厂。这家汽车制造商此前曾计划扩大对中国的出口,该计划始于去年。 Bill Pugliano/Getty Images General Motors has halted exports of a small number of American-made vehicles to China as a result of tariffs imposed during President Trump’s trade battles with that country. 因特朗普总统与中国的贸易争端中所征收的关税,通用汽车已停止向中国出口少量在美国制造的汽车。 The automaker confirmed on Monday that it had stopped sending Chevrolet Tahoe sport utility vehicles to China and will forgo plans to export other high-end models there. 这家汽车制造商于周一确认,已停止向中国出口雪佛兰太浩运动型多用途车,并将放弃向中国出口其他高端车型的计划。 G.M. began exporting Tahoes to China last year, a spokesman said. The exports were carried out under an initiative called the Durant Guild, named after Billy Durant, who founded G.M. more than a century ago. 通用汽车发言人表示,去年开始向中国出口太浩车型。这些出口通过一个名为“杜兰特协会”的计划进行,该计划以一个多世纪前建立了通用汽车的公司创始人比利·杜兰特的名字命名。 Durant Guild exports accounted for fewer than 0.1 percent of the vehicles that G.M. sells in China. For the first quarter of this year, the company reported selling 443,000 total vehicles in China, where it produces models under joint ventures with Chinese manufacturers. 杜兰特协会的出口量在通用汽车中国总销量中占比不到0.1%。今年第一季度,该公司报告称,在中国共售出443000辆汽车,通用汽车在中国通过合资企业与本地制造商合作生产车型。 “Due to significant changes to economic conditions, we have decided to restructure the Durant Guild and correspondingly optimize G.M. China’s operations,” the automaker said in a statement. 通用汽车在一份声明中表示:“由于经济条件发生了重大变化,我们决定重组杜兰特协会,并相应优化通用汽车中国的运营。” “G.M. is committed to continued development in the China market and driving success of the joint ventures with our partners,” it added. “To keep the business sustainable, we must stay focused on strong execution, business agility and customer choice.” “通用汽车致力于在中国市场的持续发展,并推动与合作伙伴的合资企业取得成功,”声明还写道。“为了保持业务的可持续性,我们必须专注于强有力的执行力、业务敏捷性和客户选择。” Neal E. Boudette常驻密歇根,报道汽车行业已有20年。他2016年加入《纽约时报》,此前曾在《华尔街日报》工作超过15年。 翻译:Ziyu Qing 点击查看本文英文版。
GINA KOLATA2025年5月20日由于近期在前列腺癌诊断和治疗方面的进展,前总统拜登以及其他被诊断为转移性前列腺癌的患者有了更大的存活机会。 Eric Lee/The New York Times Prostate cancer experts say that former President Joseph R. Biden’s diagnosis is serious. Announced on Sunday by his office, the cancer has spread to his bones. And it is Stage 4, the most deadly of stages for the illness. It cannot be cured. 前列腺癌专家表示,前总统约瑟夫·R·拜登的诊断结果很严重。根据其办公室周日发布的消息,癌症已经扩散到了骨骼,并且已达到四期——这一疾病中最致命的阶段。该病无法治愈。 But the good news, prostate cancer specialists said, is that recent advances in diagnosing and treating prostate cancer — based in large part on research sponsored by the National Institutes of Health and the Defense Department — have changed what was once an exceedingly grim picture for men with advanced disease. 但好消息是,前列腺癌专科医生表示,近年来在诊断和治疗前列腺癌方面取得的进展——这在很大程度上得益于美国国立卫生研究院和国防部资助的研究——意味着晚期患者不用再面对如此严峻的前景。 “Life is measured in years now, not months,” said Dr. Daniel W. Lin, a prostate cancer specialist at the University of Washington. “现在以年为单位来衡量他们的剩余寿命,而不是以月,”华盛顿大学的前列腺癌专家丹尼尔·W·林博士说。 Dr. Judd Moul, a prostate cancer expert at Duke University, said that men whose prostate cancer has spread to their bones, “can live 5, 7, 10 or more years” with current treatments. A man like Mr. Biden, in his 80s, “could hopefully pass away from natural causes and not from prostate cancer,” he said. 杜克大学的前列腺癌专家贾德·莫尔博士表示,前列腺癌已经扩散到骨骼的男性在目前的治疗条件下“可以活五年、七年、10年甚至更久”。他说,像拜登这样年过80的男性,“有望因自然原因去世,而不是死于前列腺癌。” Mr. Biden’s office said the former president had urinary symptoms, which led him to seek medical attention. 拜登的办公室表示,这位前总统出现了泌尿系统症状,因此寻求了医疗帮助。 But, Dr. Lin said, “I highly doubt his symptoms were due to cancer.” 但林表示:“我非常怀疑他的症状是由癌症引起的。” Instead, he said, the most likely scenario is that a doctor did an exam, noticed a nodule on Mr. Biden’s prostate and did a blood test, the prostate-specific antigen test. The PSA test looks for a protein released by cancer cells, and can be followed up by an M.R.I. The blood test and the M.R.I. would have pointed to the cancer. 他表示,更可能的情况是,医生在检查时发现拜登的前列腺上有一个结节,于是进行了血液检测——前列腺特异性抗原测试。该测试是用来检测由癌细胞释放的蛋白质,接下来还可以进行核磁共振检查。血液检测和核磁共振检查最终发现了癌症。 In this moment, patients like Mr. Biden and others who develop metastatic prostate cancer diagnoses are more fortunate than patients in the past. There are about 10 new treatments for the disease, and they have markedly changed the picture. 在当下,像拜登以及其他被诊断为转移性前列腺癌的患者比过去的患者要幸运得多。目前已有大约10种该病的新疗法,这些治疗方法显著改变了治疗前景。 The first line of attack is to cut off the testosterone that feeds prostate cancer. When Dr. Moul was starting out as a urologist in the 1980s, that was done by removing a man’s testicles. Today, men have a choice of two drugs given by injection that block the testicles from making testosterone, or a pill that does the same thing. 前列腺癌的首要治疗方式是切断其赖以生存的睾酮来源。在莫尔上世纪80年代刚成为泌尿科医生时,需要通过切除男性的睾丸来实现这一点。而如今,男性可以选择两种注射药物中的一种,这些药物能阻止睾丸产生睾酮,或者选择一种具有相同效果的口服药物。 But those drugs alone are not sufficient. So, doctors add any of three or four so-called androgen blockers that block testosterone that still manages to be produced in the testicles. 但仅靠这些药物是不够的。因此,医生会再加入三种或四种所谓的雄激素阻断剂之一,以阻断那些仍然在睾丸中产生的睾酮。 Some men, depending on how much cancer is in their bones, where the cancer tends to go, also have additional treatment, with chemotherapy or radiation. 根据骨骼中癌症的扩散程度——因为癌细胞往往会转移到骨骼——一些男性还需要额外的治疗,如化疗或放疗。 There have also been improvements in diagnosis. 诊断方法也有所改进。 Until recently, doctors determined how much cancer was in the bones with scans that looked for inflammation. Now they have a more precise scan, called a prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET scan. It uses a radioactive tracer that attaches to a marker on the surface of prostate cells. It allows doctors to spot the cancer much earlier, which means men with prostate cancer cells in their bones often have a much better prognosis — because they can be treated earlier — than men who had bone scans of just a few years ago. 医生曾经需要通过扫描寻找炎症来判断骨骼中癌症的扩散程度,这一点近年得到改观。现在,他们有了一种更精确的扫描方法,叫做前列腺特异性膜抗原PET扫描。这种扫描使用一种放射性示踪剂,能附着在前列腺细胞表面的标记物上。这使得医生能够更早发现癌症,因此骨骼中有前列腺癌细胞的男性,通常会比几年前仅做骨扫描的男性有更好的预后——因为他们可以更早接受治疗。 Finally, if the medications that block testosterone, and the chemotherapy and radiation therapy, stop working, there are other drugs that can be used to quell the cancer. 最后,如果阻止睾酮的药物、化疗和放疗失效,还有其他药物可以用来抑制癌症。 Dr. Lin noted that the infusion of federal research money, with Mr. Biden’s cancer moonshot effort, in large part led to this progress. Mr. Biden, he said, “was one of the first presidents to put cancer on the forefront.” 林指出,联邦研究资金的注入,尤其是拜登发起的目标远大的抗癌计划,在很大程度上推动了这一进展。他说,拜登“是最早将癌症提到优先位置的总统之一”。 As for Dr. Moul, he said he sees men Mr. Biden’s age with Stage 4 prostate cancers on a regular basis and is much more optimistic now than ever before. 而莫尔则表示,他经常见到像拜登这个年龄、患有四期前列腺癌的男性,而现在他比以往任何时候都更加乐观。 “We have a lot more tools in our toolbox,” Dr. Moul said. “Survival rates have almost tripled in the last decade. I can’t fathom how much change has taken place.” “我们现在有了更多的治疗手段,”他说。“生存率在过去十年里几乎翻了三倍。我简直无法想象发生了如此巨大的变化。” Gina Kolata报道报道疾病和治疗方法、治疗方法的发现和测试方式以及它们如何影响人们。 翻译:Ziyu Qing 点击查看本文英文版。
T.M.BROWN2025年5月20日 Photo illustration by Tyler Comrie A telegenic young woman called Luna is standing on the floor of a warehouse stacked with shipping boxes and sacks the color of sun-washed jade. When the video opens, she does a jumping half twist to face the camera and says, in smooth British-accented English, “There’s nothing a Chinese factory can’t make.” Garment factories in Guangdong, she explains, are vital production partners for American brands like Brooks Brothers and Tommy Hilfiger. “The scale of the factories in this region specifically, they’re not massive,” she says, doing a practiced walk-and-talk. “But all of them are willing to invest heavily in research and development.” 一名自称露娜(音)的上镜年轻女子站在仓库里,周围堆满运输箱和翡翠色麻袋。视频开始时,她做了个半圈旋转跳,面对镜头,用流利的英式英语说:“没有中国工厂不能造的东西。”她解释说,广东的服装厂是布克兄弟和汤米·希尔费格等美国品牌的重要生产合作伙伴,。“就这个具体地区而言,工厂规模并不大,”她以娴熟的边走边说方式说道,“但它们都愿意在研发上投入巨资。” I started seeing videos like this one as I scrolled social media from my couch in the days after President Trump announced his sweeping new tariffs — Liberation Day, if you must — in early April. TikTok, in particular, was flooded with videos of young Chinese people, speaking from warehouses and factories in Guangdong and Shenzhen, in footage that reminded me of low-budget TV ads for local businesses. In one, a woman called Rosie — looking worried, as if trying to stop someone from making a huge mistake — struck poses while telling viewers which websites they could use to buy sportswear or appliances directly from Chinese manufacturers. 今年4月初,特朗普总统宣布了范围广泛的新关税——如果非得用他的说法,也就是所谓解放日——随后,我在沙发上浏览社交媒体时开始看到这种视频。具体地说,TikTok上充斥着中国年轻人在广东、深圳等地的仓库和工厂里对着镜头讲话的视频,让我想起那些为本地企业拍摄的低成本电视广告。在一段视频里,一个自称罗西的女子面带忧容,仿佛在试图阻止某人犯下一个大错。她一边摆出各种姿势,一边告诉观众可以通过哪些网站直接从中国制造商那里购买运动服或家电。 Americans had already been doing that for years. There are enormous communities on Reddit dedicated to connecting with Chinese proxy buyers, where WhatsApp numbers are traded like samizdat: You can text a stranger somewhere in China, get a menu of goods and order with a few clicks on PayPal. There are drop-shippers, too, a cottage industry of people who take orders through e-commerce sites, then have foreign manufacturers send the items directly to customers. You could even cut out the middlemen and contact a factory yourself. All this was enabled, in part, by a de minimis tariff exemption, in which goods worth less than $800 could be shipped from China or Hong Kong directly to the consumer without paying duties. But Trump ended that exception this year — and, of course, he also slapped almost all Chinese imports with a tariff of at least 145 percent. 美国人早就已经这样做了。Reddit上有专门帮找中国代购的巨大社区,在那里,WhatsApp账号像地下出版物一样被交易,它让人能给中国某个地方的陌生人发短信,获取商品清单,然后点几下PayPal付款下单。还有代发货商,这是一种家庭小作坊,他们通过电商网站接单,然后让外国的制造商直接把商品发给客户。人们甚至可以省掉中间商,自己去联系工厂。所有这些交易都一定程度上得益于“小额豁免”——价值低于800美元的商品能从中国或香港直接寄送到消费者手中,无需缴纳关税。但特朗普在今年取消了这一政策,当然,他还对几乎所有的中国进口商品加征了至少145%的关税。(根据两国后来达成的协议,目前美国已将对中国商品的关税从145%下调至30%,中国则将对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%。——编注) Now Chinese manufacturers and American consumers both face tariff-induced anxieties — and so the flow of communication between them seems to be deepening. The videos I saw last month seemed to want to negotiate new trade arrangements directly with American consumers, peer to peer, outside official channels. They pitched factory-direct savings that might defray some of the rising costs of goods. Americans, they wagered, had found it easier to change their politics than their Amazon wish lists. 中国的制造商和美国的消费者们现在都面临着关税引发的焦虑,双方之间的沟通似乎也因此加深。我上个月看到的这些视频似乎是想绕过官方渠道,建立点对点的关系,来与美国消费者直接谈判达成一种新的贸易方式。这些视频的卖点是工厂直销的优惠,这也许能部分缓解商品涨价的影响。它们押注,对美国人来说,改变政治立场比起改变亚马逊愿望清单更容易。 That these videos might find a receptive audience among young Americans isn’t surprising. In this year’s edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, 42 percent of some 2,000 respondents said they were struggling financially, up from 29 percent in 2019. I see the same feelings and preoccupations when I talk to my own friends: crumbling infrastructure, unaffordable health care, wealth disparities so deep that even people with jobs end up sleeping in their cars. All of this is paired with a shifting image of China among young Americans, who are about half as likely as their parents, and around one-fifth as likely as their grandparents, to see China as an “enemy” of the United States. 这些视频可能会受到一些美国年轻人欢迎,这并不令人意外。今年的哈佛大学春季青年民意调查显示,约2000名受访者中,有42%的人表示他们面临经济困难,高于2019年的29%。我在与朋友谈话时也听到了同样的感受和担忧:美国的基础设施正在崩溃,医疗费用高到负担不起,贫富差距如此巨大,就连有工作的人也会落入睡在车里的境地。伴随所有这一切的是美国年轻人对中国看法的改变。他们把中国视为美国的“敌人”的可能性大约是他们父母辈的一半,大约是他们祖父母辈的20%。 You could sense this in March, when the American YouTuber Darren Jason Watkins Jr. (a.k.a. IShowSpeed) began traveling through China, livestreaming lengthy videos — the Beijing entry stretches to six hours — that have been viewed tens of millions of times. Both Watkins and a share of his audience were clearly excited by what they saw. On his visit to Shenzhen, he rode in an amphibious car made by the Chinese manufacturer BYD, amazing viewers with the sight of a street-legal S.U.V. wading easily into a body of water. “China is legit the future,” one commenter wrote. 今年3月,这种变化可见一斑,YouTube上的美国网红小达伦·杰森·沃特金斯(网名IShowSpeed)开始了他中国旅行的长视频直播——北京的那段长达六小时——观看次数超过几千万。沃特金斯和他的部分观众显然对他们看到的东西感到兴奋。他在深圳旅行时乘坐了一辆由中国制造商比亚迪制造的水陆两用车,这辆符合上路法规的SUV轻松开进一片水里的画面令观众惊叹不已。“中国的确是未来,”一名评论者写道。 Watkins has close to 40 million subscribers on YouTube, many of whom must still be in their teens, living in an American car market where what passes for innovation is a modular tailgate. (BYD and other Chinese auto companies are effectively banned from the American market by protectionist policies that long predate Trump’s.) In those streams, they may well have found a more optimistic, imaginative view of the future than their own country has lately conjured — the China that has built thousands of miles of high-speed rail while California struggles to lay down short stretches, or made its wind- and solar-power generation eclipse its fossil-fuel power capacity while Trump cancels federal grants for renewable energy. 沃特金斯在YouTube上有近4000万订阅者,其中许多人肯定还是只有十几岁的青少年,在他们在生活中看到的美国汽车市场,所谓创新只不过是多功能的卡车箱后挡板。(美国的贸易保护政策在特朗普上台前就已基本上禁止了比亚迪和其他中国汽车公司进入美国市场。)在TikTok上的这些直播中,美国年轻人也许看到了另一种未来,比他们自己国家这些日子里能让人想象出来的更乐观:中国修建了几万公里的高速铁路,而加州建设短距离高铁仍困难重重;中国的风能和太阳能发电量已超过了化石燃料发电量,而特朗普却在取消联邦政府对可再生能源的拨款。 This intoxicating portrait is, of course, an exercise in image-building on the part of China. Watkins’s streams can be entertaining, but they certainly aren’t an objective exploration of Chinese life; they are a kind of glossy tourist video, made with the apparent blessing of a Chinese government that wouldn’t have given him latitude to document, say, the blanket surveillance, political repression or forced labor that make it possible for the nation to complete those ambitious infrastructure projects. (Or the massive “ghost cities” and excess rail lines that sit unused.) In that sense, the streams are not so different from the videos in which telegenic young people crow about their factories’ making garments for Lululemon or Lacoste, as if they might sell you those items without the retail markup. What we are seeing online tends to be China’s very best face. 这个令人神往的画面当然是中国打造自身形象的一个组成部分。虽然沃特金斯的直播能娱乐观众,但它们当然不是对中国人生活的客观探索;它们更像是光鲜亮丽的旅游宣传视频,似乎得到了中国政府的默许。中国政府不会允许他记录无所不在的监控、政治迫害,或强迫劳动,那些东西让中国得以修建雄心勃勃的基础设施项目。(还有大量“鬼城”和闲置过剩的铁路)。在这个意义上,这些直播与那些上镜的中国年轻人制作的视频没有太大区别,他们号称自己的工厂为露露乐蒙或Lacoste生产服装,好像他们能够不经零售商加价就把这些产品直接卖给你。我们在网上看到的往往是中国最好的一面。 Still, the accelerating flow of video between the two countries might be rewiring our relationship. Something like an anonymous TikTok account posting unflattering comparisons between New York and China’s subway systems — the former rat-infested and leaky, the latter immaculate and full of polished stone — feels like a new evolution in that exchange, not least because Americans seem increasingly willing to admit to its veracity. Those manufacturers’ videos fall into a wave of soft, small-scale influence-peddling. Somewhere beneath the negotiations of two nations, another begins between individuals, one of whom really wants new leggings at a steep discount, another of whom needs to sell exactly that. 尽管如此,两国之间交流的视频量日益增长,这也许正在重塑我们的关系。比如,一个匿名账号在TikTok上发布对比视频,比较纽约和中国的地铁系统——前者受鼠患危害还漏水,后者一尘不染,到处是抛光的大理石。这种不太客气的比较似乎是这种交流的新发展,尤其因为美国人似乎越来越愿意承认其真实性。那些制造商的视频属于一波软推销类的小规模影响力渗透。在高层的两国谈判之下,个体之间的另一种谈判已经开始,一方是渴望以极低价格购买新紧身裤的人,另一方是需要将这种东西卖出去的人。 Recently, I asked a couple of friends — both are in their late 30s, and have lived in China their entire lives — how their own views of America have shifted over time. Both said that they ravenously consumed American culture, and saw the United States as a nation of cohesive, dynamic people. But over the last 10 years, their sense was that America was degrading, its democracy growing more brittle; they saw our gun violence, political clashes and treatment of immigrants as signs of a country whose flaws were becoming mortal wounds. 最近,我问两名一直在中国生活、快40岁的朋友,随着时间的推移,他们对美国的看法发生了什么变化。他们说,他们都曾是美国文化如饥似渴的消费者,认为美国是一个有凝聚力、充满活力的国家。但过去10年来,他们的感觉是美国正在衰落,美国的民主制度正在变得越来越脆弱;他们将我们的枪支暴力、政治冲突,以及对待移民的做法视为这个国家的缺点正在变成致命伤的迹象。 Yet seeing the wrinkles and scars of a country they had admired also humanized it. Anti-Americanism, one told me, was not a default perspective among his peers, and most of his younger colleagues drew clear distinctions between the American people and the American government. When TikTok was briefly banned, he said, many Americans started joining the Chinese platform RedNote, creating a moment when people in the two countries were speaking to one another through social media. “From the posts of countless ordinary Americans, we know that the United States is neither heaven nor hell,” he told me; American life was “a mixture of happiness, pain, trouble and curiosity, just like my own life.” Grand projects of geopolitical maneuvering will continue between the two nations. But there is also a growing dialogue between the peoples themselves, and the possibility that it could shape public opinion as much as anything happening in Beijing or Washington. 不过,看到这些皱纹和伤疤,也让他们曾经钦佩的国家显得更有人情味。其中一人告诉我,反美主义在他的同龄人中并非默认观点,他的大多数年轻同事将美国人民和美国政府明确区分开来。他说,TikTok被短暂封禁期间,许多美国人开始加入中国平台小红书,创造了一个两国人民在社交媒体上直接交流的时刻。“我们从无数普通美国人的帖子里了解到,美国既不是天堂,也不是地狱,”他告诉我;美国人的生活“与我自己的生活一样,交织着快乐、痛苦、烦恼和好奇。”两国之间的地缘政治宏大博弈还将继续下去。但两国人民之间的对话也在不断增多,而这种交流有可能对公众舆论的影响,丝毫不亚于北京或华盛顿正在发生的任何事情。 T.M. Brown此前为《纽约时报杂志》撰文探讨了阻碍电影公司发行完成的电影的经济诱因。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
KYLE CHAN2025年5月19日 Jack X. Zhou For years, theorists have posited the onset of a “Chinese century”: a world in which China finally harnesses its vast economic and technological potential to surpass the United States and reorient global power around a pole that runs through Beijing. 多年来,理论家们一直在设想一个“中国世纪”的到来:在那个世界里,中国最终利用其巨大的经济和技术潜力超越美国,重塑全球力量格局,使其以北京为中心。 That century may already have dawned, and when historians look back they may very well pinpoint the early months of President Trump’s second term as the watershed moment when China pulled away and left the United States behind. 那个世纪可能已经到来,而当历史学家回顾时,他们很可能会指出,特朗普总统第二任期的前几个月是中国拉开距离,把美国甩在后面的分水岭。 It doesn’t matter that Washington and Beijing have reached an inconclusive and temporary truce in Mr. Trump’s trade war. The U.S. president immediately claimed it as a win, but that only underlines the fundamental problem for the Trump administration and America: a shortsighted focus on inconsequential skirmishes as the larger war with China is being decisively lost. 华盛顿和北京在特朗普的贸易战中达成了没有实质成果的暂时休战,但这无关紧要。美国总统立即声称这是一场胜利,反而凸显出特朗普政府和美国面临的根本问题:在与中国那场更为关键的的战争面临惨败之际,美国却在目光短浅地关注无关紧要的小规模冲突。 Mr. Trump is taking a wrecking ball to the pillars of American power and innovation. His tariffs are endangering U.S. companies’ access to global markets and supply chains. He is slashing public research funding and gutting our universities, pushing talented researchers to consider leaving for other countries. He wants to roll back programs for technologies like clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing and is wiping out American soft power in large swaths of the globe. 特朗普正在大肆破坏美国力量和创新的支柱。他的关税正在危及美国公司进入全球市场和供应链的机会。他正在削减公共研究经费,削弱我们的大学,迫使有才华的研究人员考虑离开美国前往其他国家。他想缩减清洁能源和半导体制造等技术项目,并在全球大片地区消灭美国的软实力。 China’s trajectory couldn’t be more different. 中国的轨迹截然不同。 It already leads global production in multiple industries — steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar power, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G equipment, consumer electronics, active pharmaceutical ingredients and bullet trains. It is projected to account for 45 percent — nearly half — of global manufacturing by 2030. Beijing is also laser-focused on winning the future: In March it announced a $138 billion national venture capital fund that will make long-term investments in cutting-edge technologies such as quantum computing and robotics, and increased its budget for public research and development. 在钢铝、造船、电池、太阳能、电动汽车、风力涡轮机、无人机、5G设备、消费电子产品、活性药物成分和高铁等多个行业,中国的产量已经位居全球首位。预计到2030年,中国将占全球制造业的45%,接近一半。北京同样非常关注赢得未来:今年3月,它宣布成立一个1万亿元的国家风险投资基金,对量子计算和机器人等尖端技术进行长期投资,并增加了公共研发预算。 The results of China’s approach have been stunning. 中国的做法取得了惊人的成果。 When the Chinese start-up DeepSeek launched its artificial intelligence chatbot in January, many Americans suddenly realized that China could compete in A.I. But there have been a series of Sputnik moments like that. 今年1月,当中国初创公司深度求索推出其人工智能聊天机器人时,许多美国人突然意识到,中国可以在人工智能领域展开竞争。但是不止如此,这样的“斯普特尼克时刻”还有很多。 The Chinese electric carmaker BYD, which Mr. Trump’s political ally Elon Musk once laughed off as a joke, overtook Tesla last year in global sales, is building new factories around the world and in March reached a market value greater than that of Ford, GM and Volkswagen combined. China is charging ahead in drug discoveries, especially cancer treatments, and installed more industrial robots in 2023 than the rest of the world combined. In semiconductors, the vital commodity of this century and a longtime weak point for China, it is building a self-reliant supply chain led by recent breakthroughs by Huawei. Critically, Chinese strength across these and other overlapping technologies is creating a virtuous cycle in which advances in multiple interlocking sectors reinforce and elevate one another. 特朗普的政治盟友埃隆·马斯克曾将中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪当成笑话,但这家公司去年的全球销量超过了特斯拉,正在世界各地建设新工厂,今年3月的市值超过了福特、通用和大众汽车的总和。中国在药物研发、尤其是癌症治疗方面正处于领先地位,2023年安装的工业机器人数量超过了世界其他国家的总和。半导体是本世纪至关重要的大宗商品,也是中国长期以来的软肋。在华为最近的突破性进展引领下,中国正在打造一条自给自足的供应链。关键是,中国在这些领域和其他重叠技术方面的优势正在创造一个良性循环,多个相互关联领域的进步相互促进、相互提升。 Yet Mr. Trump remains fixated on tariffs. He doesn’t even seem to grasp the scale of the threat posed by China. Before the two countries’ announcement last Monday that they had agreed to slash trade tariffs, Mr. Trump dismissed concerns that his previous sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods would leave shelves empty in American stores. He said Americans could just get by with buying fewer dolls for their children — a characterization of China as a factory for toys and other cheap junk that is wildly out of date. 然而,特朗普仍然执着于关税。他似乎甚至没有意识到中国构成的威胁有多大。在上周一两国宣布同意削减贸易关税之前,特朗普驳斥了他之前对中国商品征收的天价关税会让美国商店货架空空如也的担忧。他说,美国人只要给孩子们少买几个娃娃就可以了——这种把中国说成是玩具和其他廉价商品工厂的说法已经完全过时了。 The United States needs to realize that neither tariffs nor other trade pressure will get China to abandon the state-driven economic playbook that has worked so well for it and suddenly adopt industrial and trade policies that Americans consider fair. If anything, Beijing is doubling down on its state-led approach, bringing a Manhattan Project-style focus to achieving dominance in high-tech industries. 美国需要认识到,无论是关税还是其他贸易压力,都无法让中国放弃一直以来行之有效的国家主导型经济政策,并突然采取美国人认为公平的工业和贸易政策。相反,北京正在加倍强化其国家主导的方式,以“曼哈顿计划”的方式专注于实现高科技产业的主导地位。 China faces its own serious challenges. A prolonged real estate slump continues to drag on economic growth, though there are signs that the sector may be finally recovering. Longer-term challenges also loom, such as a shrinking work force and an aging population. But skeptics have been predicting China’s peak and inevitable fall for years, only to be proved wrong each time. The enduring strength of a state-dominated Chinese system that can pivot, change policy and redirect resources at will in service of long-term national strength is now undeniable, regardless of whether free-market advocates like it. 中国也面临着严峻的挑战。房地产市场的长期低迷继续拖累经济增长,尽管有迹象表明该行业可能最终正在复苏。更长期的挑战也迫在眉睫,比如劳动力萎缩和人口老龄化。但是,怀疑论者多年来一直在预测中国经济的见顶和不可避免的衰退,却每次都被证明是错误的。不管自由市场倡导者们是否认可,以国家为主导的中国体制的持久实力现在已经不可否认,它可以随意转向、改变政策和重新分配资源,以服务于国家的长远利益。 Mr. Trump’s blinkered obsession with short-term Band-Aids like tariffs, while actively undermining what makes America strong, will only hasten the onset of a Chinese-dominated world. 特朗普对关税等短期权宜之计的盲目痴迷在积极破坏美国强大之本,同时只会让一个由中国主导的世界更快到来。 If each nation’s current trajectory holds, China will likely end up completely dominating high-end manufacturing, from cars and chips to M.R.I. machines and commercial jets. The battle for A.I. supremacy will be fought not between the United States and China but between high-tech Chinese cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou. Chinese factories around the world will reconfigure supply chains with China at the center, as the world’s pre-eminent technological and economic superpower. 如果两国都按照目前的轨迹发展下去,中国很可能最终完全主导高端制造业,从汽车、芯片到核磁共振成像仪和商用飞机。人工智能霸主之争将不是在美国和中国之间展开,而是在深圳和杭州等中国高科技城市之间展开。作为卓越的世界技术和经济超级大国,中国的工厂将遍布世界各地,并将以中国为中心重新配置供应链。 America, by contrast, may end up as a profoundly diminished nation. Sheltered behind tariff walls, its companies will sell almost exclusively to domestic consumers. The loss of international sales will degrade corporate earnings, leaving companies with less money to invest in their businesses. American consumers will be stuck with U.S.-made goods that are of middling quality but more expensive than global products, owing to higher U.S. manufacturing costs. Working families will face rising inflation and stagnant incomes. Traditional high-value industries such as car manufacturing and pharmaceuticals are already being lost to China; the important industries of the future will follow. Imagine Detroit or Cleveland on a national scale. 相比之下,美国可能最终会成为一个严重衰落的国家。在关税壁垒的庇护下,美国企业将几乎只向国内消费者销售产品。国际销售的损失将降低企业的收益,使企业用于投资业务的资金减少。由于美国制造成本的上升,美国消费者将只能购买质量中等但比全球产品更贵的美国产品。工薪家庭将面临不断上升的通货膨胀和收入停滞。汽车制造业和制药业等传统高价值产业已流向中国;未来的重要行业也会随之流失。想象一下全国范围内都出现底特律或克利夫兰那样的情形。 Avoiding that grim scenario means making policy choices — today — that should be obvious and already have bipartisan support: investing in research and development; supporting academic, scientific and corporate innovation; forging economic ties with countries around the world; and creating a welcoming and attractive climate for international talent and capital. Yet the Trump administration is doing the opposite in each of those areas. 要避免这种严峻的局面,就意味着要做出本应显而易见并已得到两党支持的政策选择——今天就做:投资研发;支持学术、科技和企业创新;与世界各国建立经济联系;为国际人才和资本创造一个友好、有吸引力的环境。然而,特朗普政府在这些领域的做法恰恰相反。 Whether this century will be Chinese or American is up to us. But the time to change course is quickly running out. 本世纪究竟属于中国还是美国,这取决于我们。但是,改变方向的时间已经不多。 Kyle Chan是普林斯顿大学的博士后研究员,专注于中国科技和产业政策研究。他撰写关于相同主题的新闻通讯“High Capacity”。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
TRIPP MICKLE2025年5月19日白宫和国会官员一直在仔细审查苹果公司的计划,该计划旨在达成一项协议,使阿里巴巴的人工智能技术能够在iPhone上使用。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times Apple believes the future success of the iPhone depends on the availability of new artificial intelligence features. But tensions between Washington and Beijing may cripple the tech giant’s plans to deliver A.I. in its second-most-important market, China. 苹果公司认为iPhone未来的成功取决于能否引入新的人工智能功能。但华盛顿与北京之间的紧张关系可能会阻碍这家科技巨头在其第二大市场——中国——推出人工智能的计划。 In recent months, the White House and congressional officials have been scrutinizing Apple’s plan to strike a deal with Alibaba to make the Chinese company’s A.I. available on iPhones in China, three people familiar with the deliberations said. They are concerned that the deal would help a Chinese company improve its artificial intelligence abilities, broaden the reach of Chinese chatbots with censorship limits and deepen Apple’s exposure to Beijing laws over censorship and data sharing. 据三位知情人士透露,近几个月来,白宫和国会官员一直在审查苹果公司与阿里巴巴达成协议的计划,该协议旨在让这家中国公司的人工智能技术能在中国的iPhone上使用。官员们担心,这项协议可能会帮助中国公司提升人工智能能力、扩大带有审查限制的中国聊天机器人的影响力,并进一步加深苹果在审查制度和数据共享方面受中国法律管制的程度。 The scrutiny is the latest example of the challenges that Apple has run into as it tries to sustain its businesses in the United States and China at a time of rising geopolitical tensions. Three years ago, the U.S. government succeeded in pressuring the company to abandon a deal to buy memory chips from a Chinese supplier, the Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation, or YMTC. More recently, the company has been challenged by U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made products like the iPhone, threatening to cut into the company’s profits. 在地缘政治紧张局势持续加剧之际,苹果公司正努力维持其在中美两国的业务运转,而此次审查正是其所面临挑战的最新例证。三年前,美国政府曾成功施压,迫使苹果放弃与中国供应商长江存储科技公司(简称YMTC)达成的内存芯片采购协议。最近,美国对iPhone等中国制造产品加征关税,也对苹果构成了新的挑战,可能会侵蚀其利润空间。 Walking away from an Alibaba deal would have far graver consequences for Apple’s business in China, which accounts for almost a fifth of the company’s sales. The partnership with the Chinese tech company is critical to bringing A.I. features to iPhones in one of the world’s most highly regulated and competitive markets. Without the Alibaba partnership, iPhones could fall behind smartphones from Chinese rivals like Huawei and Xiaomi. 如果放弃与阿里巴巴的合作协议,苹果在中国的业务将面临更为严重的后果,中国市场占据了苹果近五分之一的销售额。与这家中国科技公司的合作对于在这个全球监管最严格、竞争最激烈的市场之一向iPhone引入人工智能功能至关重要。若没有阿里巴巴的支持,iPhone可能会在人工智能功能方面落后于华为、小米等中国本土竞争对手的智能手机。 Officials at the White House and the House Select Committee on China have raised the deal directly with Apple executives, said the three people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. During meetings in Washington with senior Apple executives and lobbyists, government officials asked about terms of the deal, what data Apple would be sharing with Alibaba and whether it would be signing any legal commitments with Chinese regulators. In the meeting with the House committee in March, Apple executives were unable to answer most of those questions, two of these people said. 据三位知情人士透露,白宫官员以及众议院中国问题特设委员会的成员已就该协议直接向苹果高管提出质询。由于未被授权接受媒体采访,他们要求匿名。在苹果高层与说客前往华盛顿与政府官员会面期间,后者询问了协议的具体条款、苹果将与阿里巴巴共享哪些数据,以及是否会与中国监管机构签署任何法律承诺。其中两位知情人士表示,在今年3月与众议院特设委员会的会谈中,苹果高管对大多数问题都未能作出明确答复。 阿里巴巴将帮助苹果在中国与本土对手竞争。 Washington’s concern about the deal has been heightened by a deepening conviction that A.I. will become a critical military tool. The technology, which can write emails and develop software code, has the potential to coordinate military attacks and control autonomous drones. Worried about a future U.S.-Chinese conflict, Washington officials have tried to limit Beijing’s access to A.I. technology, cutting off its ability to make and buy A.I. chips. 华盛顿对这项交易愈发担忧,是因为日渐坚信人工智能将成为关键的军事工具。这项能够撰写电子邮件和开发软件代码的技术还具备协调军事打击、控制自主无人机的潜力。出于对中美未来可能爆发冲突的担忧,华盛顿官员一直在努力限制北京获取人工智能技术,切断其制造和采购人工智能芯片的能力。 Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, the ranking Democrat on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said in a statement that it “is extremely disturbing that Apple has not been transparent about its agreement.” 伊利诺伊州众议员、众议院常设情报委员会民主党领袖拉贾·克里什纳穆尔提在一份声明中表示,“苹果没有对其协议保持透明,令人非常不安。” “Alibaba is a poster child for the Chinese Communist Party’s military-civil fusion strategy, and why Apple would choose to work with them on A.I. is anyone’s guess,” he said. “There are serious concerns that this partnership will help Alibaba collect data to refine its models, all while allowing Apple to turn a blind eye to the fundamental rights of its Chinese iPhone users.” “阿里巴巴是中国共产党军民融合战略的典型代表,苹果为何选择与他们在人工智能方面合作,这谁也说不清楚,”他说。“人们严重担忧,这一合作将帮助阿里巴巴收集数据以优化其模型,同时让苹果对中国iPhone用户的基本权利视而不见。” Apple, the White House and Alibaba did not provide comment. Apple hasn’t publicly acknowledged the A.I. deal in China, but Alibaba’s chairman, Joe Tsai, confirmed it publicly in February. 苹果公司、白宫和阿里巴巴均未发表评论。苹果尚未公开承认在中国的人工智能协议,但阿里巴巴董事会主席蔡崇信在2月已公开确认此事。 There is concern in Washington that an Apple deal with Alibaba would set a problematic precedent. U.S. companies could help Chinese A.I. providers reach more users and use the data they collect from those users to improve their models. The risk would be that Baidu, Alibaba, ByteDance and other Chinese companies could then use those improvements to help China’s military. 华盛顿担心,苹果与阿里巴巴达成的协议可能会为未来的合作树立一个问题重重的先例。美国公司可能会帮助中国的人工智能供应商触及更多用户,并利用从这些用户那里收集的数据来优化他们的模型。风险在于,百度、阿里巴巴、字节跳动及其他中国公司可能会利用这些改进来支持中国的军事发展。 To limit U.S.-Chinese collaboration, the Trump administration has discussed whether Alibaba and other Chinese A.I. companies should be put on a list prohibiting them from doing business with U.S. companies, the people familiar with the deliberations said. Defense Department and intelligence officials have also been scrutinizing Alibaba’s ties to the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army. 知情人士称,为了限制中美合作,特朗普政府曾讨论是否应将阿里巴巴及其他中国人工智能公司列入禁止与美国公司做生意的名单。美国国防部和情报部门的官员也一直在审查阿里巴巴与中国共产党以及解放军的关系。 Greg Allen, the director of the Wadhwani A.I. Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank, said Apple’s partnership ran counter to the bipartisan efforts in Washington to slow China’s A.I. development. Apple could be motivated to help Alibaba improve its artificial intelligence system because its A.I. could make iPhones in China more useful, valuable and easier to sell. 战略与国际研究中心瓦德瓦尼人工智能中心主任格雷格·艾伦表示,苹果的合作伙伴关系与两党在华盛顿合作遏制中国人工智能发展的努力相悖。苹果公司可能有动力帮助阿里巴巴改进其人工智能系统,因为该系统可以使中国的iPhone更加实用、更具价值且更易于销售。 “The United States is in an A.I. race with China, and we just don’t want American companies helping Chinese companies run faster,” Mr. Allen said. “美国正与中国进行人工智能竞赛,我们不希望美国公司帮助中国公司跑得更快,”艾伦说道。 In addition to this scrutiny, Apple’s chief executive, Tim Cook, has faced new criticism from President Trump. During Mr. Trump’s trip across the Middle East this past week, he said he had “a little problem” with Mr. Cook because Apple was beginning to build products in India rather than the United States. 除了面临这些审查,苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克还遭遇了特朗普总统的新一轮批评。在上周访问中东期间,特朗普表示自己对库克“有点意见”,因为苹果开始在印度而非美国生产产品。 苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克去年参加在北京举行的中国发展高层论坛。 “We’re not interested in you building in India,” Mr. Trump said he had told Mr. Cook. “India can take care of themselves. They’re doing very well. We want you to build here.” “我们不希望你们在印度生产,”特朗普说他曾告诉库克,“印度自己能照顾自己。他们过得好的很。我们希望你们在国内生产。” Last year, Apple revamped the iPhone with new A.I. abilities that it called Apple Intelligence. It said iPhone users would be able to use its A.I. product to summarize notifications and gain access to writing tools that could improve emails and other messages. It also revealed an improved Siri virtual assistant that could combine information on a phone, like a message about someone’s travel itinerary, with information from the web, like a flight arrival time. 去年,苹果对iPhone进行了改进,新增了名为“Apple Intelligence”的人工智能功能。苹果表示,iPhone用户将能够使用这一人工智能产品来总结通知,使用一些写作工具,从而改善电子邮件和其他信息的内容。同时,苹果还推出了升级版的Siri虚拟助手,能够将手机中的信息——如某人的旅行行程信息——与航班到达时间这样来自网络的信息结合起来。 Apple struck a partnership with OpenAI to support some of its A.I. abilities. OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT, is currently answering questions when prompted on iPhones in the United States. 苹果与OpenAI达成了合作伙伴关系,以支持其部分人工智能功能。OpenAI的聊天机器人ChatGPT目前在美国的iPhone上根据提示回答问题。 (The New York Times has sued OpenAI and its partner, Microsoft, accusing them of copyright infringement regarding news content related to A.I. systems. OpenAI and Microsoft have denied those claims.) (《纽约时报》起诉了OpenAI及其合作伙伴微软,指控他们在与人工智能系统相关的新闻内容上侵犯版权。OpenAI和微软否认这些指控。) Because OpenAI doesn’t operate in Beijing, Apple needed to find a local partner to give iPhones in China the same performance as those in the United States. The company spoke with several Chinese tech companies before striking a deal with Alibaba. This year, it asked Chinese regulators to approve the A.I. features. 由于OpenAI不在北京运营,苹果需要找到一个本地合作伙伴,以便在中国的iPhone上提供与美国版相同的性能。苹果在与阿里巴巴达成协议之前曾与几家中国科技公司进行过洽谈。今年,苹果向中国监管机构申请批准这些人工智能功能。 Congressional officials were alarmed that Apple had requested approval from Chinese regulators for the Alibaba partnership, two people familiar with their concerns said. Because A.I. is an emerging field, the committee worried that Apple might make concessions or sign an agreement that would make it subject to Chinese laws. 两位知情人士表示,国会官员对苹果向中国监管机构申请批准与阿里巴巴的合作表示非常担忧。由于人工智能是一个新兴领域,委员会担心苹果可能会做出妥协或签署协议,从而使其受到中国法律的约束。 Apple hasn’t provided an update on when the A.I. features will become available on its iPhones in China. During calls with analysts this year, Mr. Cook said sales of iPhones had been better in markets where Apple Intelligence was available. 苹果尚未提供有关人工智能功能何时在中国的iPhone上推出的最新信息。今年在与分析师的电话会议中,库克表示,在人工智能功能可用的市场,iPhone的销量表现更好。 If the deal with Alibaba collapses, there is also a potential knock-on effect because Alibaba is a major e-commerce retailer that could sell and market iPhones, said Richard Kramer, a senior analyst at Arete Research, an investment advisory firm. He said that kind of partnership had the potential to boost the iPhone after Apple’s share of smartphone sales in China fell to 15 percent last year from 19 percent in 2023. Arete Research投资顾问公司高级分析师理查德·克雷默表示,如果苹果与阿里巴巴的协议破裂,还可能产生连锁反应,因为阿里巴巴是一个主要的电子商务零售商,能够销售和推广iPhone。他表示,这种合作关系有可能推动iPhone的销量,去年,苹果在中国智能手机市场份额从2023年的19%降至了15%。 Without Alibaba, Chinese iPhone users could download A.I. apps, Mr. Kramer said. It would make for a more difficult experience than rivals might offer. 克雷默表示,如果没有阿里巴巴,中国的iPhone用户仍然可以下载人工智能应用程序,但用户体验上相比竞争对手会有些逊色。 “People will still buy their phones, but it will make it harder,” he said. 他说:“人们仍然会购买他们的手机,但这会让做出购买决定变得更困难。” Tripp Mickle为时报报道苹果公司和硅谷新闻,常驻旧金山。他对苹果公司的关注包括产品发布、制造问题和政治挑战。他也报道整个科技行业的趋势,包括裁员、生成式AI和机器人出租车等。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
TYLER PAGER, GINA KOLATA2025年5月19日前总统拜登上个月在芝加哥。 AJ Mast for The New York Times Former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was diagnosed on Friday with an aggressive form of prostate cancer that has spread to his bones, his office said in a statement on Sunday. 前总统拜登的办公室周日在一份声明中称,拜登于周五被诊断出患有一种侵袭性前列腺癌,且已扩散至骨骼。 The diagnosis came after Mr. Biden reported urinary symptoms, which led doctors to find a “small nodule” on his prostate. Mr. Biden’s cancer is “characterized by a Gleason score of 9” with “metastasis to the bone,” the statement said. 声明称,在拜登报告出现泌尿症状后,医生在其前列腺发现一个“小结节”。拜登的癌症“格里森评分为9分”且“已转移至骨骼”。 The Gleason score is used to describe how prostate cancers look under a microscope; 9 and 10 are the most aggressive. The cancer is Stage 4, which means it has spread. 格里森评分用于描述前列腺癌在显微镜下的特征,9分和10分代表恶性程度最高。拜登的癌症为4期,意味着已扩散。 “While this represents a more aggressive form of the disease, the cancer appears to be hormone-sensitive which allows for effective management,” according to the statement from Mr. Biden’s office, which was unsigned. “The president and his family are reviewing treatment options with his physicians.” 拜登办公室未署名的声明提到:“尽管这是一种侵袭性较强的癌症,但它对激素敏感,可以有效控制。总统和家人正在与医生讨论治疗方案。” Mr. Biden, 82, left office in January as the oldest-serving president in American history. Throughout his presidency, Mr. Biden faced questions about his age and his health, ultimately leading him to abandon his re-election campaign under pressure from his own party. 82岁的拜登于今年1月卸任,是美国历史上任职时年龄最大的总统。整个总统任期内,他一直面临关于年龄和健康的质疑,最终在他自己政党的压力下放弃连任竞选。 Prostate cancer experts say that Mr. Biden’s diagnosis is serious, and that once the cancer has spread to the bones — where it tends to go — it cannot be cured. But Dr. Judd Moul, a prostate cancer expert at Duke University, said men whose prostate cancer has spread “can live five, seven, 10 or more years.” 前列腺癌专家指出,拜登的病情严重,且癌症一旦扩散至骨骼——这是常见转移部位——便无法治愈。但杜克大学前列腺癌专家贾德·莫尔博士表示,前列腺癌扩散的患者“可能存活5年、7年、10年甚至更久”。 The first line of attack is to cut off the testosterone that feeds prostate cancer. Dr. Moul said that when he started out as a urologist in the 1980s, this was done by removing a man’s testicles. Today, men have a choice of two drugs given by injection that block the testicles from making testosterone or a pill that does the same thing. In addition, men take drugs that block any testosterone that manages to be made despite the drugs that inhibit its production. 一线治疗方案是切断滋养前列腺癌的睾酮。莫尔称,20世纪80年代他刚成为泌尿科医生时,还需通过手术切除睾丸实现这一点;如今患者可选择注射两种药物或服用一种药片来抑制睾丸分泌睾酮,同时还需服用药物阻断其他途径产生的睾酮。 Dr. Moul said he sees men Mr. Biden’s age with similar prostate cancer diagnoses on a regular basis. “Survival rates have almost tripled in the last decade,” he said. 莫尔表示,他经常接诊与拜登年龄相仿、病情相似的前列腺癌患者。“过去十年,存活率提高了将近两倍,”他说。 President Trump, who has repeatedly bashed Mr. Biden and blames him for most of the country’s problems, was among those who issued supportive statements on Sunday evening. 曾多次抨击拜登并将美国诸多问题归咎于他的特朗普总统也在周日晚间发表声明以示支持。 “Melania and I are saddened to hear about Joe Biden’s recent medical diagnosis,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media. “We extend our warmest and best wishes to Jill and the family, and we wish Joe a fast and successful recovery. “我和梅拉尼娅听闻乔·拜登最近的病情诊断后深感难过,”特朗普在社交媒体上写道,“我们向吉尔和他的家人致以最温暖的祝福,祝愿乔早日成功康复。” Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who served with Mr. Biden, said she and her husband were “saddened” to learn of the former president’s diagnosis. 曾与拜登共事的前副总统卡贺锦丽称,她和丈夫得知前总统的诊断后“非常难过”。 “Joe is a fighter — and I know he will face this challenge with the same strength, resilience, and optimism that have always defined his life and leadership,” she wrote on social media. “We are hopeful for a full and speedy recovery.” “乔是个斗士——我知道他会以一贯的力量、韧性和乐观面对这一挑战,这些都是他的人生和领导力的鲜明标志,”她在社交媒体上写道,“我们期待他全面、迅速康复。” Since leaving office, Mr. Biden has largely kept a low profile, spending most of his time in Delaware and commuting to Washington to meet with staff to plan his post-presidential life. After Mr. Trump passed the 100-day mark, and ahead of the release of books about his presidency and the 2024 campaign, Mr. Biden participated in interviews to push back against claims that he suffered from mental decline. 卸任后,拜登基本保持低调,大部分时间待在特拉华州,偶尔前往华盛顿与幕僚会面,规划卸任后的生活。在特朗普执政满100天之际,以及关于拜登总统任期和2024年竞选的几本书籍出版前,他接受采访反驳了关于自己精神衰退的说法。 “They are wrong,” Mr. Biden said during an interview on “The View.” “There’s nothing to sustain that.” “他们错了,”拜登在《观点》节目采访中表示,“没有任何依据支持这种说法。” He also said that he could have defeated Mr. Trump had he not dropped out of the race. 他还称,若未退出竞选,本可以击败特朗普。 Still, many top Democrats have been forced to reckon with their staunch support of Mr. Biden’s re-election campaign before a disastrous debate last June, in which he appeared disoriented and listless. After dropping out, Mr. Biden endorsed Ms. Harris, who lost to Mr. Trump. 然而,许多民主党高层曾经坚定支持拜登连任,直至去年6月那场灾难性的辩论令他们不得不重新考虑,当时他在辩论中显得精神恍惚、无精打采。退选后,拜登为贺锦丽的竞选背书,但后者最终输给了特朗普。 Adding fuel to the fire was the release this weekend of the audio from Mr. Biden’s 2023 interview with Robert K. Hur, the special counsel who investigated his handling of classified documents. Axios published the full five-hour tape ahead of the Trump administration’s plans to release it this week, and it reveals Mr. Biden’s halting voice and his difficulty providing dates and details. 雪上加霜的是,拜登在2023年接受特别检察官罗伯特·赫尔问讯的音频本周末被曝光。Axios网站在特朗普政府计划本周公布该音频之前发布了完整的五小时录音,其中拜登声音迟疑,难以清晰回忆日期和细节。 Mr. Hur ultimately declined to recommend charges against Mr. Biden in part because, he said, a jury would find the president to be a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” 赫尔最终拒绝建议起诉拜登,部分原因是他认为陪审团会将总统视为“富有同情心、善意但记忆不佳的老人”。 In February 2024, when Mr. Biden was still president, his longtime doctor declared him “fit to serve” after he underwent a routine physical at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. 2024年2月,拜登仍在任时,其长期私人医生在他于沃尔特里德国家军事医疗中心完成例行体检后宣布他“适合履职”。 Mr. Biden and his family have faced numerous health challenges throughout their lives. In 1988, Mr. Biden battled two brain aneurysms that threatened to end his political career. His son Beau died in 2015 from glioblastoma, an aggressive form of brain cancer. 拜登及其家人一生中多次面临健康挑战。1988年,拜登曾患两处脑动脉瘤,险些终结他的政治生涯;2015年,他的儿子博因患一种称为胶质母细胞瘤的侵袭性脑癌去世。 When Mr. Biden was asked in January, shortly before leaving office, whether he would have had the vigor to serve another four years, he said he did not know. 今年1月卸任前被问及是否有精力再任职四年时,拜登说他不知道。 “Who the hell knows? So far, so good,” he said in an interview with USA Today. “But who knows what I’m going to be when I’m 86 years old?” “谁知道呢?目前还好,”他在接受《今日美国》采访时说,“但谁知道我86岁时会怎样呢?” Tyler Pager是《纽约时报》白宫记者,报道特朗普总统及其政府。 Gina Kolata报道报道疾病和治疗方法、治疗方法的发现和测试方式以及它们如何影响人们。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI2025年5月19日美国最高贸易官员杰米森·格里尔上周四出席在韩国举行的亚太经合组织会议。 Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters The gathering of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation trade ministers is usually a staid meeting, but this year it offered more intrigue and urgency as countries throughout the region scrambled to engage the United States in talks before a 90-day pause on punishing tariffs expires in July. 亚太经合组织贸易部长会议通常是平淡的会议,但今年却带上了更多谋划与紧迫感,因为该地区各国都在争先恐后赶在惩罚性关税90天暂停期于7月到期前与美国展开对话。 The meeting, which took place this week on South Korea’s resort island of Jeju, was the first opportunity for the group of mostly Asian economies and the United States to meet collectively since President Trump announced — and then suspended — what he called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of trading partners. The heaviest duties were applied to imports from trading partners in Asia. 会议于上周在韩国度假胜地济州岛举行,这是自特朗普总统对数十个贸易伙伴宣布(随后又暂停)他所称的对等关税以来,以亚洲经济体为主的亚太经合组织成员国与美国首次进行集体会面。在这些关税中,针对亚洲贸易伙伴进口产品的关税最重。 The main attraction at the meeting was Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative and one of the two main negotiators who reached an agreement for a temporary truce on tariffs with China last weekend. He told reporters that he could not do interviews because his schedule was jampacked with meetings with representatives from various nations. 会议的焦点人物是美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔,他也是此前一个周末与中国达成临时关税休战协议的两位主要谈判代表之一。他告诉记者,由于与多国代表安排的会谈日程太满,他无法接受采访。 Cheong Inkyo, South Korea’s minister of trade, said at a news briefing that many participating countries had originally planned to send vice ministers to the meeting but then changed their minds and sent ministers to push for meetings with Mr. Greer. 韩国贸易部长郑仁教在新闻发布会上表示,许多与会国家原本计划派副部长出席会议,但后来改变主意派部长前来,以便争取与格里尔会面。 David Boling, a director of Japan and Asia trade at the Eurasia Group and a former U.S. trade negotiator, said that most countries were eager to meet with American officials at meetings of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, but that such discussions were even more critical this time because of the looming deadline on July 9. 欧亚集团日本与亚洲贸易事务主管、前美国贸易谈判代表戴维·博林表示,大多数国家都希望在亚太经合组织(APEC)会议上与美国官员会面,但由于7月9日的最后期限临近,这次的讨论显得尤为重要。 “It’s all about Trump’s tariffs,” Mr. Boling said. “All those trade ministers who come in, their No. 1 goal is to get some sort of face time with Jamieson Greer.” “这一切都与特朗普的关税有关,”博林说。“所有前来出席的贸易部长的头号目标,就是设法与贾米森·格里尔面对面交谈。” Last month, Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on goods from dozens of countries that he claimed took advantage of the United States by running up trade surpluses. 上个月,特朗普对数十个国家的商品征收关税,他声称这些国家通过增加贸易顺差占了美国的便宜。 A week later, after blowback in the financial markets, he suspended the tariffs for 90 days to allow time for negotiations. He kept a 10 percent “base-line” tariff on all imports. 一周后,在金融市场的剧烈反应下,他暂停征收这些关税90天,以便有时间进行谈判。他对所有进口产品保留10%的“基准”关税。 In setting the reciprocal tariffs, Mr. Trump reserved some of the most punishing duties for longtime allies such as South Korea and Japan and countries in Southeast Asia like Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, which had become manufacturing alternatives to China. 在设定对等关税时,特朗普对韩国、日本等长期盟友,以及越南、泰国和柬埔寨等已成为中国制造业替代国的东南亚国家保留了一些最严厉的关税。 While many Asian countries have sent delegations to Washington, Britain, one of the few countries that buy more from the United States than they sell and were not subject to the reciprocal tariffs, is the only trading partner that has reached an agreement with the Trump administration so far. 虽然许多亚洲国家已派代表团前往华盛顿,但英国是迄今唯一与特朗普政府达成协议的贸易伙伴。英国是少数几个从美国进口多于出口、未受到对等关税影响的国家之一。 At a news conference on Friday, Mr. Cheong said he had been able to speak with Mr. Greer about the progress that the countries had made since the start of discussions in early May. He said he had explained the “Korean situation” and the challenges of holding trade talks ahead of an election on June 3. 在上周五的新闻发布会上,郑仁教表示,他已同格里尔讨论了自5月初开始谈判以来的进展。他表示,他向对方说明了“韩国的情况”,以及在6月3日韩国选举之前举行贸易谈判所面临的挑战。 Mr. Trump hit South Korea, a longtime U.S. ally, with a 25 percent tariff. Government officials in Seoul are trying to negotiate with the Trump administration at a delicate time in South Korean politics. Campaigning is beginning for what is expected to be a deeply divided and contentious election, necessitated by the removal last month of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached for his short-lived attempt to place the country under martial law. 特朗普对韩国这一美国的长期盟友征收了25%的关税。首尔的政府官员正试图在韩国政治局势的一个敏感时期与特朗普政府谈判。竞选活动已经开始,预计这将是一场严重分裂、充满争议的选举。上个月,尹锡悦总统因试图实施戒严(很快被取消)而遭到弹劾,此次选举是在这一背景下引发的。 Mr. Greer also met with the vice chairman of HD Hyundai, the heavy-industry arm of South Korea’s Hyundai conglomerate, to discuss opportunities for cooperation in shipbuilding. 格里尔还会见了韩国现代集团旗下的重工业公司现代重工集团的副董事长,讨论了在造船领域的合作机会。 Both Seoul and Washington have said Mr. Trump wants shipbuilding to be part of a trade deal between the two countries. South Korean officials have called it an important negotiating card. 首尔与华盛顿双方均表示,特朗普希望将造船业纳入两国之间的贸易协议。韩国官员称其为重要的谈判筹码。 According to South Korean media reports, Mr. Greer also met with Li Chenggang, China’s trade envoy, who was part of the Chinese delegation that negotiated last weekend with Mr. Greer and the U.S. Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent. 据韩国媒体报道,格里尔还会见了中国贸易特使李成钢。李成钢是此前的周末与格里尔及美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特谈判的中国代表团成员之一。 Under the agreement, the United States reduced tariffs on Chinese imports to 30 percent from 145 percent, and China cut levies on American goods to 10 percent from 125 percent. The reprieve is set to expire in early August. 根据协议,美国将对中国进口商品的关税从145%下调至30%,中国则将对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%。这一缓和措施将于8月初到期。 Trade tensions between the United States and China — the world’s two largest economies — loomed large over the meeting. APEC slashed its economic outlook for the region from projections made two months earlier, before Mr. Trump announced the reciprocal tariffs, which affect more than half of APEC’s 21 members. 美中这两个世界最大经济体之间的贸易紧张关系在此次会议中尤为突出。相较于两个月前(即特朗普宣布对等关税前)的预测,亚太经合组织大幅下调了对该地区经济前景的预期。在亚太经合组织的21个成员国中,超过一半的国家都受到了特朗普对等关税的影响。 The group, which accounts for around half of global trade and about 60 percent of economic output, cut its forecast for growth this year to 2.6 percent from its previous projection of 3.3 percent. It cited “trade frictions” and “policy uncertainty.” 亚太经合组织约占全球贸易的一半,占全球经济产出的60%左右。该组织将今年的经济增速预期从此前预测的3.3%下调至2.6%,原因是“贸易摩擦”与“政策不确定性”。 Carlos Kuriyama, who leads economic and trade research at APEC, said a reduction in trade with the United States would be difficult to overcome. 亚太经合组织经济与贸易研究负责人卡洛斯·库里亚马表示,与美国贸易的减少将难以弥补。 “The U.S. is the largest market and the largest economy, so it represents a very significant percentage of the global economy,” Mr. Kuriyama said. “It will be hard to find a way to replace all these opportunities.” “美国是最大的市场,也是最大的经济体,因此它占全球经济的比例非常高,”库里亚马说。“要找到替代所有这些机会的方法将非常困难。” Choe Sang-Hun对本文有报道贡献。 Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻首尔亚洲商业记者,报道区域经济、公司和地缘政治新闻。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
TIFFANY MAY2025年5月16日 Fuzaixundaoyuan via Douyin China’s first police corgi will do anything for food. 为了食物,中国第一只柯基警犬什么都愿意做。 With a keen sense of smell and legs that seem too short for his body, Fu Zai has won a huge social media audience that has followed him doing official duties since he started as a sniffer dog last fall. He was a pet puppy when a dog trainer spotted his potential at a park and recruited him to the Weifang Public Security Bureau, in the northern coastal province of Shandong. “福仔”有敏锐的嗅觉和四条看上去跟他的身形不相称的短腿,自从去年秋天开始当嗅探犬以来,它在社交媒体上赢得了大量粉丝。当他还是一只宠物小狗的时候,一位训犬师在公园里发现了它的潜力,将他招募到山东潍坊市公安局。 A love of earning treats as rewards has earned Fu Zai strong performance reviews. But it’s also proved a challenge, as his trainer has found that keeping him in line is not easy. 对食物奖励的热爱让福仔的表现出众。但事实也证明,这是一个挑战,因为教官发现让它听话并不容易。 Fu Zai was caught on camera recently grabbing a bite of a sausage in a child’s hand during a street patrol. Officers have since tried to train him to better resist food, but many social media users offered support — and free sausages — for Fu Zai the next time he patrolled the streets. 近日,福仔在街头巡逻时被摄像头拍到咬了一口小孩手里的烤肠。此后,警官试图训练它更好地抵抗食物,但许多社交媒体用户在福仔下次上街巡逻时表示支持——还提供了免费烤肠。 In another video, some of the corgi’s toys and snacks — part of a Lunar New Year “bonus”— were confiscated for sleeping on the job and using his dog bowl as a urinal. 在另一段视频中,这只柯基的一些玩具和零食——春节“奖金”的一部分——因为在工作时睡觉和在食盆中小便而被没收。 Dog experts said that such behavior is normal for corgis. 犬类专家说这种行为对柯基来说很正常。 “That’s why they’re challenging, too, because they get distracted pretty easily. And they also have a lot of prey drive, so if there’s anything that moves really quickly, they want to go and investigate,” said Leonardo Palacio, the owner of Real Focus K9, a dog training school in Stamford, Conn., that specializes in training dogs with behavioral challenges. “所以这很有挑战性,因为它们很容易分心。它们也有很强的捕食欲望,所以如果有什么东西移动得非常快,它们就会想去谈个究竟,”康涅狄格州斯坦福德犬类训练学校Real Focus K9的所有人莱昂纳多·帕拉西奥说。该学校专门训练有行为挑战的狗。 He added that a corgi often moves with the confidence of “a big dog in a small dog’s body.” 他还说,柯基犬的行动往往充满自信,就像“一只大狗住在一只小狗的身体里”。 Fu Zai is an unusual choice for police work. Traditionally, corgis were bred to work on farms, herding cattle by biting their ankles. In recent times, they have become popular choices for pets or companion dogs, most famously associated with Queen Elizabeth. But some have retained the propensity to nip. 对于警务工作来说,福仔是一个不寻常的选择。传统上,人们饲养柯基犬是为了在农场工作,通过咬牛的踝部来管理牛群。近年来,它们已成为宠物或伴侣犬的流行选择,其中最著名的是伊丽莎白女王的柯基犬。但有些柯基犬仍保留着咬脚踝的嗜好。 That trait might dissuade trainers when assessing the suitability of a dog for the disciplined forces, said James Leung, a training director at Hong Kong Canine, who has experience training police dogs. “It’s all trainable, but that’s just one less thing I have to train,” he said. Golden retrievers and spaniels are more typical choices for sniffer dogs, because they are typically seen by the public as friendly, he added. 有训练警犬经验的香港犬类(Hong Kong Canine)的训练主管詹姆斯·梁(音)说,在评估犬类是否适合纪律部队时,这样的特点可能会让训练员望而却步。“虽然可塑性强,但毕竟需要额外训练,”他说。他还说,金毛巡回犬和西班牙猎犬更常被选为嗅探犬,因为在公众眼中,它们的形象很友善。 Fu Zai’s trainer at the Weifang police, Zhao Qingshuai, said in an interview with China’s state broadcaster that he had initially ruled out a corgi as a police dog because of the breed’s reputation for curiosity and distractibility, not to mention the short legs. Meeting Fu Zai changed his mind. 福仔在潍坊警察局的训导员赵清帅在接受中国官方电视台采访时表示,他最初排除了用柯基犬当警犬的可能性,因为这种犬以好奇和容易分心而闻名,更不用说它的腿短了。与福仔相遇改变了他的想法。 Mr. Zhao said that after first encountering the dog by chance in the park and chatting with his owner, Fu Zai had come running after Mr. Zhao called his name. When offered treats, he was a good sport in games like spinning on demand. “He could not resist food, an indication that he has a strong drive to work for food,” Mr. Zhao said. 赵清帅说,第一次在公园里偶然遇到这只狗,并和它的主人聊天后,福仔就在赵清帅叫它的名字后跑了过来。如果给他东西吃,它就会乖乖地参加按指令转圈等游戏。“他对食物无法抗拒,说明这个福仔食物动力非常高,”赵清帅说。 He later invited Fu Zai to train at the police base to assess his skills. Over the next few months, the corgi excelled in detecting explosives. Moreover, he could fit under tight spaces some other dogs couldn’t reach, making it easy to sniff out the bottom of vehicles and inspect the underside of bus seats. 后来,他邀请福仔到警察基地训练,以评估他的技能。在接下来的几个月里,这只柯基犬在探测爆炸物方面表现出色。此外,它可以钻进其他狗狗无法到达的狭小空间,这使得它很容易嗅探汽车底部,并检查公交车座椅底部。 “His short legs have actually become an advantage, allowing him to perform tasks that larger dogs can’t,” Mr. Zhao said. 赵清帅说:“它腿短反而是一个优势,可以做一些大型犬无法完成的工作。” Fu Zai, whose name means something like “Lucky Youngster,” became a full-fledged member of the Weifang police in October. He has since been beamed around the Chinese internet as a friendly face for the regional force, making frequent appearances on the Weifang Public Security Bureau’s official account on Douyin, China’s version of TikTok. A separate account the department maintains, named “Fu Zai and his comrades,” has more than 400,000 followers. 福仔在10月成为了潍坊警方的一名正式成员。自那以后,他作为地方警察的友好形象在中国互联网上传播开来,经常出现在潍坊市公安局的抖音(中国版的TikTok)官方账号上。该部门维护的另一个名为“柯警福仔和他的战友们”的账号有40多万粉丝。 The videos show a glimpse of police dog life: practicing drills, patrolling a regional kite festival and riding on the back of a motorcycle, doggy shades on. (His former owner pays him regular visits, according to videos on her Douyin account.) 这些视频展示了警犬的生活:演习,在该地区风筝节巡逻,戴着警犬墨镜骑在摩托车后座上。(它的前主人抖音账号上的视频显示,她会定期去看它。) But the drive for food that helped him land the job also gotten him into some of his troubles. 但是,爱吃帮助他得到了这份工作,也给他带来了一些麻烦。 While a working dog needs enough self-control to consistently follow instructions, it is also important that it keeps its natural drive or instincts, said Vivien Chin, the owner and principal trainer at Active K9 Academy, a dog training school in Singapore. 新加坡一所犬类训练学校Active K9 Academy的校长兼首席训练师薇薇安·陈(音)说,虽然一只工作犬需要足够的自制力来始终如一地遵循指令,但保持它的自然驱动力或本能也很重要。 “You want it to be a bit more independent and a bit of a go-getter to actually go out and get the guy, or to brave all the different environmental obstacles that may come its way,” she said. 她说:“你希望它更独立、更有进取心,能够走出去抓坏人,或者勇敢地面对可能遇到的各种环境障碍。” Whether as temptation he can’t resist or a treat used in training, there will probably be more sausage in Fu Zai’s future. And whatever his performance review says, his status as a social media star is unlikely to fade. 不管是无法抗拒的诱惑,还是训练时的犒赏,福仔的未来可能还会有更多的考场。不管业绩评估如何,他作为社交媒体明星的地位不太可能失色。 Jiawei Wang自首尔对本文有报道贡献。 Tiffany May是时报驻香港记者,报道香港和更广泛地区的政治、商业和文化议题。 翻译: 点击查看本文英文版。
LUKE BROADWATER, JONATHAN SWAN, VIVIAN NEREIM2025年5月16日 At home, President Trump is ordering up investigations into his political opponents and finding creative ways to use his executive power to ruin the lives of even some of his milder critics. 在美国国内,特朗普总统正下令对其政治对手展开调查,并寻求以各种新颖的方式使用行政权力,毁掉那些批评他的人的生活——哪怕这些人只是对他略有微词。 Abroad, Mr. Trump has sent a different message: Let bygones be bygones. Even if those bygones involved trying to assassinate him or working with Al Qaeda. 在国外,特朗普表达的是一种态度:既往不咎。即便“既往”涉及企图暗杀他或与基地组织合作的行为。 In a series of speeches and off-the-cuff remarks during the first major foreign trip of his second term, Mr. Trump has told audiences in the Middle East that he is willing to set the past aside in the interests of peace and profit. 在第二任期首次重大外事访问期间,特朗普通过一系列演讲和即兴发言向中东听众表示,为了和平与利益,他愿意放下过去。 “I have never believed in having permanent enemies,” Mr. Trump said in a speech on Tuesday at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh. “I am different than a lot of people think.” “我从不相信有永远的敌人,”特朗普周二在利雅得的沙美投资论坛上发表演讲时说,“我并不像很多人以为的那样。” His statement about permanent enemies related to his outreach to Iran — whose government is accused of plotting to assassinate him after he left office. (Iran denies this.) But a little while later, in the same speech, Mr. Trump offered a more surprising olive branch. 他关于“永远的敌人”的表态与他向伊朗示好有关,伊朗政府被指控在他卸任后策划暗杀他。(伊朗对此予以否认。)但不久后,在同一场演讲中,特朗普抛出了更令人意外的橄榄枝。 He announced he would lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, throwing an economic lifeline to a country ravaged by decades of repression, civil war, terrorism and poverty exacerbated by international isolation. 他宣布将解除对叙利亚的制裁,为这个因数十年镇压、内战、恐怖主义及在国际孤立下加剧的贫困而满目疮痍的国家提供经济生命线。 “The sanctions were brutal and crippling and served as an important — really, an important function, nevertheless, at the time,” Mr. Trump said of Syria. “But now, it’s their time to shine.” “制裁是残酷且致命的,在当时确实起到了重要的,真的很重要的作用,”特朗普谈及叙利亚时称,“但现在,是他们闪耀的时候了。” The next morning, Mr. Trump met in Riyadh with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Shara. Mr. al-Shara, who led the rebel alliance that overthrew the dictator Bashar al-Assad in December, once had close ties with Al Qaeda, and his rebel group is designated by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization. (The United States has removed a $10 million bounty for his arrest.) The last meeting between the two countries’ leaders occurred 25 years ago. 次日上午,特朗普在利雅得会见了叙利亚新任总统艾哈迈德·沙拉。沙拉曾领导去年12月推翻独裁者巴沙尔·阿萨德的反叛联盟,一度与基地组织关系密切,他的这个反叛武装被美国政府列为恐怖组织(美国已撤销对他的1000万美元的逮捕悬赏)。美叙两国领导人上一次会晤还是在25年前。 He said he had pledged to drop the sanctions on Syria at the urging of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey — two authoritarian leaders whom he admires. After talking to them, he reversed, overnight, a quarter-century of hostility between America and Syria. 特朗普表示,在沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼和土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安——两位他钦佩的威权领导人——的敦促下,他已承诺解除对叙利亚的制裁。与他们交谈后,他一夜之间扭转了美叙长达四分之一世纪的敌对状态。 That was unsurprising given Mr. Trump’s admiration for strongman leaders, like Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. He has made clear to them that he will be less interfering in their affairs and more willing to forgive their violations of their citizens’ human rights as the actions of “tough” and “smart” leaders. 鉴于特朗普对中国国家主席习近平、俄罗斯总统普京等强人领袖的赞赏,这并不令人意外。他已向这些领导人明确表示,他将减少对他们事务的干涉,更愿意将他们侵犯公民人权的行为视为“强硬”和“聪明”的领导人的应有之举,从而予以谅解。 But when it comes to domestic matters, Mr. Trump is less forgiving. His list of enemies at home is long and growing. 但在国内事务上,特朗普则没那么宽容。他的敌人名单很长,且还在不断扩大。 周二,特朗普与沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼在利雅得合影。 He has gone after previous political opponents; members of his first administration he views as disloyal; law firms that employed people who previously investigated him; universities he has condemned as “woke”; news organizations whose coverage he dislikes; the author of a critical opinion article and book; and Chris Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, who merely asserted factually that widespread fraud had not led the 2020 election to be stolen from Mr. Trump. 他会针对过去的政治对手;他的第一届政府中那些被他视为“不忠”的成员;雇佣过曾调查他的人员的律师事务所;被他斥为“觉醒派”的大学;报道内容令他反感的新闻机构;撰写批评性评论文章和书籍的作者;以及只是在实事求是地表示2020年大选未因大规模舞弊被“窃取”的前网络安全和基础设施安全局局长克里斯·克雷布斯。 He has also targeted former Biden administration officials. He has revoked their security clearances and indicated that he wanted his Justice Department to examine whether it would be possible to invalidate pre-emptive pardons that President Joseph R. Biden Jr. handed out to protect his family from potential prosecution by a Trump administration. 他还将矛头对准前拜登政府官员,撤销了他们的安全许可,并示意他希望司法部能做出评估,看看是否能推翻拜登总统为保护家人免受特朗普政府潜在起诉而提前做出的赦免。 The White House did not provide a comment for this article. 白宫未就本文置评。 Mr. Trump will wrap up his final day in the Gulf on Friday, after being feted in Abu Dhabi on Thursday and awarded the country’s highest civilian honor. 特朗普将于周五结束在海湾地区的最后一天行程,周四他在阿布扎比受到盛情款待,并被授予该国最高平民荣誉。 While abroad, Mr. Trump’s more forgiving side shone through. He long ago cast aside differences with Qatar, which he described in his first term as a “funder of terrorism at a very high level.” On Wednesday, he described the emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, as an old friend, and he has publicly thanked Qatar for offering him the gift of a $400 million luxury jet to replace Air Force One. Qatar, like the other Gulf nations Mr. Trump visited this week, is also in business with the Trump family. 在国外时,特朗普更宽容的一面显露无遗。他早已放下与卡塔尔的分歧——他在第一任期曾称卡塔尔是“级别极高的恐怖主义资助者”。周三,他称卡塔尔的埃米尔塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒萨尼为老朋友,并公开感谢卡塔尔赠送他一架价值4亿美元的豪华喷气式飞机,以取代“空军一号”。与特朗普本周访问的其他海湾国家一样,卡塔尔也与特朗普家族有商业往来。 With his approach toward Iran, Mr. Trump has surprised some of his advisers with how easily he has set aside what had become a deeply personal animus. Last year, a federal grand jury in Washington indicted three members of a cyberespionage unit associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps for mounting wide-ranging attacks targeting politicians, officials and journalists that led to the hacking of the Trump campaign. Iran has denied those claims. 特朗普对伊朗的态度让一些顾问惊讶于他轻易放下了曾经极深的个人恩怨。去年,华盛顿联邦大陪审团起诉了与伊朗革命卫队相关的一个网络间谍部门的三名成员,指控他们针对政客、官员和记者发动广泛攻击,导致特朗普竞选团队被黑客入侵。伊朗否认这些指控。 And last year, the Justice Department charged an Iranian for his alleged involvement in a murder-for-hire scheme against Mr. Trump. 去年,司法部还指控一名伊朗男子涉嫌参与雇凶谋杀特朗普的计划。 美国总统特朗普周三在多哈与塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒萨尼合影。 Doug Mills/The New York Times Late in the election campaign, advisers often privately speculated that Iran would regret its actions if Mr. Trump won the election. They pointed to how, in his first term, Mr. Trump didn’t hesitate to order the killing of the powerful Iranian commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani. 大选后期,顾问们常私下猜测,若特朗普胜选,伊朗会对自己的这些所作所为感到后悔。他们提到,特朗普在第一任期曾毫不犹豫地下令击毙位高权重的伊朗指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼少将。 But since taking office a second time, Mr. Trump has been deeply reluctant to engage in conflict with Iran. He has so far resisted intense efforts from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to join a bombing campaign to take out Iran’s nuclear sites. 但自第二任期开始以来,特朗普一直极不情愿与伊朗发生冲突。迄今为止,他顶住了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的强力施压,没有让美国参与轰炸伊朗核设施的行动。 Mr. Trump has said he wants a deal, and he has empowered his special envoy Steve Witkoff to negotiate with the Iranians to block their path to a nuclear bomb. Though he has made clear that he is not ruling out military force if negotiations fail, his advisers say he wants to do whatever he can to avoid war with Iran, which he believes would be disastrous for the United States. 特朗普表示希望达成协议,并授权特使史蒂夫·维特科夫与伊朗谈判,阻止其发展核武器。尽管他明确表示不排除谈判失败后动用武力,但顾问称他愿尽一切可能避免与伊朗开战,认为那对美国将是灾难性的。 “I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be very profound, which obviously they are in the case of Iran,” Mr. Trump told the business forum in Riyadh on Tuesday. “我愿意终结过去的冲突,为更美好、更稳定的世界打造新的伙伴关系,即便我们的分歧可能非常深——显然,与伊朗的情况就是如此,”特朗普周二在利雅得的商业论坛上表示。 He added, “In fact, some of the closest friends of the United States of America are nations we fought wars against in generations past, and now they’re our friends and our allies.” 他还说:“事实上,美国一些最亲密的朋友,曾与我们的祖辈打过仗,如今却成了我们的朋友和盟友。” On Wednesday night, Mr. Trump stood at the head table in an opulent dining room in the Lusail Palace in Doha and beseeched Qatar’s emir, a close ally of the Iranian government, to help him find a peaceful solution to the nuclear standoff. 周三晚,特朗普站在多哈卢塞尔宫一间华丽餐厅的主桌前,恳请与伊朗政府关系密切的卡塔尔埃米尔帮助他找到解决核僵局的和平方案。 “I hope you can help me with the Iran situation,” Mr. Trump told the emir, who was beside him. “Because it’s a perilous situation, and we want to do the right thing. We want to do something that’s going to save maybe millions of lives, because things like that get started, and they get out of control.” “我希望你能帮我处理伊朗问题,”特朗普对身旁的埃米尔说,“因为局势很危险,我们想做正确的事。我们想做可能拯救数百万人生命的事,因为这类事情一旦开始,就会失控。” Mr. Trump and his senior officials have at times offered differing statements about what they require from Iran to sign a deal. It’s unclear how close the two sides are to agreeing on the fine details, but Mr. Trump is serious enough about the diplomatic effort that he has made Iran hawks nervous — both in the United States and Israel. 特朗普及其高级官员有时对与伊朗达成协议的条件说法不一。目前尚不清楚双方在细节上接近达成共识的程度,但特朗普对外交努力的认真态度,已让美国和以色列在伊朗问题上的鹰派感到不安。 On Thursday, Mr. Trump shared on social media an article from NBC News, which reported that a top Iranian official had expressed Tehran’s openness to striking a deal. He claimed his team was “very close” to reaching an agreement. 周四,特朗普在社交媒体上分享了NBC新闻的一篇报道,称一名伊朗高级官员表示德黑兰愿意达成协议。他声称其团队“非常接近”达成协议。 But alongside his soothing talk of no permanent enemies, world peace and riches for all, Mr. Trump has also hinted at limits to his magnanimity. On the Air Force One flight from Riyadh to Doha, the president sent an ominous message to Tehran. 在大谈没有永远的敌人、世界和平、共同富裕的同时,特朗普也暗示了其宽宏大量的底线。在从利雅得飞往多哈的“空军一号”上,总统向德黑兰发出了一个暗藏杀机的讯息。 4月,一名女子走过美国驻德黑兰前大使馆墙上的一幅壁画。 “Hopefully, they’re going to make the right decision because something’s going to happen one way or the other,” he said. “They can’t have a nuclear weapon. So we’ll either do it friendly or we’ll do it very unfriendly, and that won’t be pleasant.” “希望他们能做出正确决定,因为无论如何都会有事情发生,”他说,“他们不能拥有核武器。所以我们要么友好解决,要么非常不友好地解决,而后者可是不会舒服的。” David E. Sanger对本文有报道贡献。 Luke Broadwater为时报报道白宫新闻。 Jonathan Swan是时报白宫记者,负责报道特朗普政府。 Vivian Nereim是时报负责报道阿拉伯半岛国家的首席记者,常驻沙特阿拉伯利雅得。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
HANNAH BEECH2025年5月16日上个月,北京一家苹果专卖店外。麦基为本书获得的内部文件显示,2015年,苹果公司是中国最大的企业投资者,年投资额约为550亿美元。 Wang Zhao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images APPLE IN CHINA: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company, by Patrick McGee 《苹果在中国——捕获世界上最伟大的公司》(Apple In China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company),帕特里克·麦基著 A little more than a decade ago, foreign journalists living in Beijing, including myself, met for a long chat with a top Chinese diplomat. Those were different days, when high-ranking Chinese officials were still meeting with members of the Western press corps. The diplomat whom we met was charming, funny, fluent in English. She also had the latest iPhone in front of her on the table. 十多年前,包括我在内的一些驻北京外国记者与一位中国高级外交官进行了一次长谈。那是一个不同的时代,当时中国高官还在会见西方记者团成员。我们遇到的那位外交官迷人、风趣、英语流利。她面前的桌子上还有一部最新款的iPhone。 I noticed the Apple gadget because at the time, Chinese state news media were unleashing invectives on the Cupertino, Calif.-based company for supposedly cheating Chinese consumers. (It wasn’t true.) There were rumors circulating that Chinese government officials were being told not to flaunt American status symbols. The diplomat’s accouterment proved that wrong. 我之所以注意到这款苹果产品,是因为当时中国官方新闻媒体正在猛烈抨击这家总部位于加州库比蒂诺的公司,称其欺骗中国消费者。(事实并非如此。)有传言说,中国政府官员被告知不要炫耀那些美国的身份象征。这位外交官的装备证明,这个传言是错误的。 At the time, one could make the argument that China’s economic modernization was being accompanied by a parallel, if somewhat more laggardly, political reform. But the advent in 2012 of Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader who has consolidated power and re-established the primacy of the Chinese Communist Party, has shattered those hopes. And, as Patrick McGee makes devastatingly clear in his smart and comprehensive “Apple in China,” the American company’s decision under Tim Cook, the current C.E.O., to manufacture about 90 percent of its products in China has created an existential vulnerability not just for Apple, but for the United States — nurturing the conditions for Chinese technology to outpace American innovation. 当时的中国可以说是经济现代化伴随着政治改革的同步进行,尽管后者有些滞后。但是,2012年,中国领导人习近平的出现打破了这些希望,他巩固了权力,重新确立了中国共产党至高无上的地位。而且,正如帕特里克·麦基在他睿智而全面的《苹果在中国》一书中明确的那样,苹果这家美国公司在现任首席执行官蒂姆·库克执掌下决定在中国生产约90%的产品,不仅给苹果公司也给美国带来了关乎存亡的脆弱性——同时为中国技术超越美国创新创造了条件。 McGee, who was the lead Apple reporter for The Financial Times and previously covered Asian markets from Hong Kong, takes what we instinctively know — “how Apple used China as a base from which to become the world’s most valuable company, and in doing so, bound its future inextricably to a ruthless authoritarian state” — and comes up with a startling conclusion, backed by meticulous reporting: “that China wouldn’t be China today without Apple.” 麦基曾是《金融时报》报道苹果的首席记者,之前曾在香港报道过亚洲市场,他从我们直觉上认识到的事实出发——“苹果如何利用中国作为基地成为世界上最有价值的公司,并在此过程中将其未来不可避免地与一个无情的威权国家联系在一起”,以细致的报道为据,得出了一个惊人的结论:“如果没有苹果,中国就不会是今天的中国。” Apple says that it has trained more than 28 million workers in China since 2008, which McGee notes is larger than the entire labor force of California. The company’s annual investment in China — not even counting the value of hardware, “which would more than double the figure,” McGee writes — exceeds the total amount the Biden administration dedicated for a “once-in-a-generation” initiative to boost American computer chip production. 苹果公司表示,自2008年以来,该公司已在中国培训了2800多万名工人,麦基指出,这个数字比加州的全部劳动力还要多。该公司在中国一年的投资就超过了拜登政府为促进美国计算机芯片生产而投入的“一代人只能遇到一次”的计划的总额——这甚至还不包括硬件的价值,麦基在书中称,把这部分算进去“这个数字要翻一倍以上”。 “This rapid consolidation reflects a transfer of technology and know-how so consequential,” McGee writes, “as to constitute a geopolitical event, like the fall of the Berlin Wall.” “这种快速的整合反映了技术和知识的转移是如此重要,”麦基写道,“以至于构成了一个地缘政治事件,就像柏林墙的倒塌一样。” McGee has a journalist’s knack for developing scenes with a few curated details, and he organizes his narrative chronologically, starting with Apple’s origins as a renegade upstart under Steve Jobs in the 1970s and ’80s. After Jobs’s firing and rehiring comes a corporate mind shift in which a vertically integrated firm falls for the allure of contract manufacturing, sending its engineers abroad to train low-paid workers in how to churn out ever more complicated electronics. 麦基有记者的技巧,可以用一些精心安排的细节来展现场景,他按时间顺序组织叙事,从20世纪七八十年代史蒂夫·乔布斯领导下的苹果作为一个叛逆新贵的起源说起。在乔布斯被解雇和重新聘用之后,企业思想发生了转变,一家纵向一体化的公司被外包制造的诱惑所吸引,将其工程师派往国外培训低薪工人,教他们如何大量生产更复杂的电子产品。 We only really get to Apple in China about 90 pages into the book, and that China, in the mid- to late 1990s, was mainly attractive because of what one China scholar called “low wages, low welfare and low human rights.” McGee relates how one Apple engineer, visiting suppliers in the southern Chinese manufacturing center of Shenzhen, was horrified that there were no elevators in the “slapdash” facility, and that the stairs were built with troubling irregularity: with, say, 12 steps (of varying heights) between the first and second floors, then 18 to the next, then 16, then 24. 本书进行到90页左右才真正开始谈及苹果在中国的情况。在20世纪90年代中后期,中国之所以具有吸引力,主要是因为一位中国学者所说的“低工资、低福利和低人权”。麦基讲述了一名苹果工程师拜访中国南方制造中心深圳的供应商时,震惊地发现这家“简陋”的工厂里没有电梯,楼梯的建造也很不规范,令人不安:比如,一楼和二楼之间有12级台阶(高度不一),然后是18级,然后是16级,然后是24级。 But China at the turn of the millennium was in the process of joining the World Trade Organization, and its leaders were banking on an export-led economy that would learn from foreign investors. Starting in the 2000s the Taiwanese mega-supplier Foxconn constructed entire settlements for Chinese workers building Apple electronics. First up on the new assembly lines were iMacs that were produced by what became known as “China speed.” 但在世纪之交,中国正处于加入世界贸易组织的过程中,中国领导人寄望于出口导向型经济,向外国投资者学习。从本世纪头十年开始,台湾大型供应商富士康为生产苹果电子产品的中国工人建造了一整套居住区。新装配线上的第一批产品是用所谓“中国速度”制造的iMac。 Less than 15 years after Chinese workers began making Apple products en masse, Chinese consumers were buying them en masse, too. Covering China at the time, I chafed at the popular narrative that reduced Apple’s presence in China to a tale of downtrodden workers at Foxconn and other suppliers. Yes, there were nets outside factory dorms to prevent suicides; and wages remained low. Even Apple admitted to alarming labor abuses in its Chinese supply chain. 在中国工人开始大量生产苹果产品不到15年后,中国消费者也开始大量购买苹果产品。我当时在报道中国,对将苹果在中国的存在简化为富士康和其他供应商工人受压榨的流行叙事感到不满。是的,富士康工厂宿舍外面有防自杀的安全网;工资仍然很低。就连苹果也承认,其在中国的供应链存在令人担忧的滥用劳工行为。 But that was only half the story. The iPhone in China signified success, an individualistic, American-accented flavor that seemed to delight both veteran diplomats and Foxconn workers I got to know in southwest China. Those of us who had lived in China for years could see that life was getting freer and richer for most Chinese. By the mid-2010s, it was the United States that seemed behind in terms of integrating apps into daily life. In China, at least in the big cities, we were already living in the tech future. 但这只是故事的一半。苹果手机在中国象征着成功,有一种个人主义的、美国式的味道,这似乎让那位资深外交官和我开始在中国西南结识的富士康工人都很高兴。我们这些在中国生活多年的人可以看到,对大多数中国人来说,生活变得越来越自由和富裕。到2010年代中期,在将手机应用融入日常生活方面,美国似乎落后了。在中国,至少在大城市,我们已经生活在科技的未来。 Yet there were episodes of unease. After Xi came to power, state media campaigns targeted Apple’s Western “arrogance.” Apple acquiesced to Beijing’s demands that it remove the New York Times app from its online store in China and keep Chinese user data in China rather than the United States, prompting worries about government intrusion. As Xi cracked down on labor rights activism, more independent audits of the Apple supply chain ceased. 但也有令人不安的时刻。习近平上台后,官方媒体针对苹果公司的西方“傲慢”进行宣传。苹果公司默许了中国政府的要求,将《纽约时报》的应用程序从中国的在线商店下架,并将中国用户的数据保存在中国而不是美国,这引发了对政府侵犯的担忧。随着习近平打击劳工权益活动,对苹果供应链的更多独立审计也停止了。 In 2015, Apple was the largest corporate investor in China, to the tune of about $55 billion a year, according to internal documents McGee obtained for this book. (Cook himself told the Chinese media that the company had created nearly five million jobs there: “I’m not sure there are too many companies, domestic or foreign, who can say that.”) At the same time, Xi laid out “Made in China 2025,” his blueprint for achieving technological self-sufficiency in the next decade, dependent on Apple being what McGee calls “a mass enabler of ‘Indigenous innovation.’” 根据麦吉为撰写本书获得的内部文件,2015年,苹果是中国最大的企业投资者,每年的投资总额约为550亿美元。(库克本人告诉中国媒体,苹果在中国创造了近500万个就业岗位:“我不确定有多少国内或国外公司能说出这样的话。”)与此同时,习近平制定了“中国制造2025”计划,那是他在未来十年实现技术自给自足的蓝图,它的实施有赖于苹果——麦基称其为“‘自主创新’的重大推动者”。 “As Apple taught the supply chain how to perfect multi-touch glass and make the thousand components within the iPhone,” he writes, “Apple’s suppliers took what they knew and offered it to homegrown companies led by Huawei, Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo.” Today, some of these premium products come with specs that are increasingly ahead of American design, and have outsold Apple in many major markets. 他写道:“苹果教会了供应链如何完善多点触控玻璃,如何制造iPhone的上千个部件,而苹果的供应商则把他们所知道的提供给以华为、小米、Vivo和Oppo为首的本土公司。”如今,其中一些高端产品的规格越来越领先于美国的设计,在许多主要市场的销量都超过了苹果。 Sometimes, McGee is too comprehensive. He draws interesting portraits of characters who disappear after a few paragraphs. We do not need to know the full name of the law firm that Apple hired in preparation for a possible bankruptcy in the mid-1990s or even the minutiae of pre-China personnel wrangles, especially when centuries of Chinese history are compressed to less than a page. There are a few Chinese misspellings and miscues — the surname Wang is not, in fact, pronounced quite as “Wong.” And it would have been nice to have gotten more perspectives of Chinese people. 有时麦基太过讲求全面。他勾勒了一些有趣的人物肖像,但这些人物在几段之后就消失了。我们不需要知道上世纪90年代中期苹果因为可能破产而聘请的那家律师事务所的全名,甚至不需要知道苹果进入中国之前的人事纠纷细节,尤其是当几个世纪的中国历史只被压缩到不到一页纸的篇幅。书中有一些中文拼写错误和偏差——事实上,王姓的发音并不是“Wong”。如果能有更多中国人的视角就更好了。 But these are quibbles with an otherwise persuasive exposé of the trillion-dollar company’s uncomfortably close relationship with the global power. China may have enabled Apple to become one of the most profitable companies in the world, but the exploitation goes both ways: This is not just a story of China making Apple, but of Apple making China. Given Xi’s authoritarian hold on power, what began as a feat of manufacturing has troubling consequences for the entire world. 但这些都是对这部极具说服力的作品的吹毛求疵,它揭露了这家价值数万亿美元的公司与一个全球大国之间令人不安的密切关系。中国可能使苹果成为世界上最赚钱的公司之一,但这种利用是双向的:这不仅仅是中国制造苹果的故事,也是苹果制造中国的故事。考虑到习近平的威权统治,这一制造业的巨大成就给整个世界带来了令人担忧的后果。 APPLE IN CHINA: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company | By Patrick McGee | Scribner | 437 pp. | $32 《苹果在中国:捕获世界上最伟大的公司》| 作者:帕特里克·麦基 | Scribner出版社 | 437页 | 32美元 Hannah Beech是《纽约时报》记者,常驻曼谷。她报道亚洲新闻超过25年,主要报道深度和调查新闻。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DANIELLE KAYE2025年5月16日洛杉矶港码头拖运集装箱和其他货物的卡车。如果美中不能在90天内达成协议,关税可能会再次提高。 Mark Abramson for The New York Times President Trump lowered his tariffs on China, and Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief. But for many businesses, especially small ones, 30 percent is still a crippling burden. 特朗普总统降低了对中国的关税,华尔街松了一口气。但对于许多企业,尤其是小企业来说,30%的关税仍然是一个沉重的负担。 The 145 percent tariff on Chinese goods that was in place for nearly a month was unthinkably high for businesses large and small. But the overall average tariff rate on imports to the United States remains at its highest level since 1934, according to a report from the Yale Budget Lab released on Monday. Even Walmart, the largest retailer in the United States, said on Thursday that it would have to raise prices on some items in response to tariff-fueled cost increases. 对中国商品征收的145%的关税已经实施了近一个月,这对大大小小的企业来说都是难以想象的高税率。但耶鲁预算实验室周一发布的报告显示,美国进口商品的总体平均税率仍处于1934年以来的最高水平。就连美国最大的零售商沃尔玛也在周四表示,将不得不提高部分商品的价格,以应对关税引发的成本上涨。 And tariffs could rise again if the two countries do not reach a deal within 90 days. 如果两国不能在90天内达成协议,关税可能会再次提高。 The 90-day pause “may temporarily help unstick the effective trade embargo that has been in place,” Steve Lamar, the chief executive of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, said in a statement. But, he added, the 30 percent tax will still cause prices to soar during the back-to-school and holiday seasons this year. 美国服装和鞋类协会首席执行官史蒂夫·拉马尔在声明中表示,90天的暂停“可能暂时有助于解除已经实施的有效贸易禁运”。但他还说,30%的关税仍然会导致今年的返校季和假期季的价格飙升。 “What’s needed now is a long-term deal — not just with China but with all our trading partners — so we can predictably make long-term trade, investment and sourcing decisions,” Mr. Lamar said. 拉马尔说:“现在需要的是长期协议——不仅是与中国,还要与所有的贸易伙伴——这样我们才能做出有预见性的长期贸易、投资和采购决策。” Unlike large retailers, which can absorb some of the cost of tariffs and have the heft to pressure suppliers, smaller companies that rely on imports from China tend to have minimal leverage to negotiate with their Chinese suppliers — and relatively tight margins. We talked to four business owners about their strategies as tariffs cut into their bottom line. 大型零售商可以吸收部分关税成本,并有能力向供应商施加压力,而依赖从中国进口的小公司则不同,它们在与中国供应商谈判时筹码有限,利润率也相对较低。我们采访了四位企业主,了解他们在关税侵蚀利润时的策略。 Cut the cheapest items 砍掉最便宜的东西 Marina Rosin Levine is the chief executive of Highline United, a footwear company near Boston, which makes roughly half of its items in China. This week, she visited her supply chain headquarters in the Chinese city of Dongguan, where conversations centered on a key question: Which shoes can it afford to sell in the United States? 玛丽娜·罗森·莱文是波士顿附近的鞋业公司高亮联合的首席执行官,该公司大约一半的产品在中国生产。本周,她参观了她在中国东莞的供应链总部,在那里,谈话集中在一个关键问题上:哪些鞋款可以在美国继续出售? The answer may at first sound counterintuitive: Only the company’s most expensive shoes — those priced at $200 or more — will start to make their way to the United States. Customers who can afford the more expensive shoes can probably afford the additional cost from the import tax. And margins on lower-value items are too tight for the company to import them and turn a profit. 答案乍听起来可能有悖常理:只有该公司最贵的商品——价格在200美元或以上的鞋子——才会继续销往美国市场。买得起更贵鞋子的顾客可能也负担地起进口税带来的额外成本。低价鞋款的利润过于微薄,进口后无利可图。 “That means the consumer with lower discretionary income is the one that’s going to be impacted the most in terms of what’s in stock,” Ms. Levine said. “这意味着,可支配收入较低的消费者将面临最严重的商品短缺问题,”莱文说。 A pair of $400 boots might be available. But $99 Mary Janes probably won’t be, at least for now. 一双400美元的靴子也许可以买到。但99美元的玛丽珍鞋可能买不到了,至少目前不行。 Consider layoffs 考虑裁员 The latest easing is not reassuring to Cheyenne Smith. When Mr. Trump imposed triple-digit tariffs on China in early April, Ms. Smith, who designs children’s rain boots that are made in China, contemplated drastic measures to save money. She considered closing a warehouse in Salt Lake City where she stores items for her brand, Dakota Ridge, and laying off her three employees. 最新的关税下调并未让夏安·史密斯放心。4月初,当特朗普对中国征收三位数的关税时,这位在中国生产儿童雨靴的设计师就考虑过采取极端措施来省钱。她考虑过关闭盐湖城的仓库,那是她为自己的品牌“达科塔山脊”储存物品的地方,她还考虑过解雇三名员工。 Her costs were rising at the same time that her sales were falling, dampened by customers’ dreary outlook on the economy. Insufficient cash flow, especially for the busy holiday season later this year, became a pressing concern. Mr. Trump’s move to temporarily ease up on tariffs offered little relief. 由于顾客对经济前景的悲观看法,她的成本在上升,同时销售额却在下降。现金流不足,尤其是为年底销售旺季备货的现金流压力,这是一个紧迫的问题。特朗普暂时放松关税的举动并没有带来多少缓解。 “The word ‘temporary’ scares me,” said Ms. Smith, who was still considering moving her inventory to her garage and laying off her staff. “I have zero trust in how long this is going to last, or if it will go higher or lower again.” “‘临时’这个词让我害怕,”史密斯说,她仍然在考虑把库存搬到车库,同时裁掉员工。“目前的关税究竟会持续多久,未来会再次走高还是走低,我对此毫无信心。” Put new products on pause 暂停推出新产品 米维雅玩具公司的路易斯·普赖尔。现在,随着关税税率降至30%,普赖尔说,他计划重新开始生产一些最受欢迎的玩具,并尽快将它们运往美国。 Luis Prior, who owns Meavia Toys, a small company in Corbin, Ky., said the 145 percent tariff rate on Chinese imports was “completely unsustainable.” Had it stayed in place for several months, it would have meant the end of his business, which designs sensory toys for children with special needs and manufactures its products in China. Shortly after Mr. Trump unveiled his suite of tariffs on April 2, Mr. Prior halted all production of his toys and held his breath, hoping for a reprieve. 路易斯·普赖尔是肯塔基州科尔宾市一家名叫米维雅玩具的小公司的老板。他表示,对中国进口商品征收145%的关税是“完全不可持续的”。他的公司为有特殊需要的儿童设计感官玩具,并在中国生产,如果这样的关税再持续几个月,那就意味着他的生意完蛋了。特朗普于4月2日公布了一系列关税后不久,普赖尔停止了所有玩具的生产,如履薄冰地等待转机。 Now, with the tariff rate down to 30 percent, Mr. Prior said he planned to restart manufacturing some of his most popular toys again and get them to the United States as soon as possible. 现在,随着关税降至30%,普赖尔说,他计划重新开始生产一些最受欢迎的玩具,并尽快把它们运到美国。 Still, tariffs at 30 percent mean higher prices for his customers. And a lack of clarity from the Trump administration on what will happen in 90 days has kept his plans to introduce new items on pause. 不过,30%的关税对他的客户来说仍然意味着更高的价格。特朗普政府对90天后会发生什么缺乏明确性,他推出新产品的计划被迫暂停。 “It’s still a very unstable and unnerving situation for small businesses that rely on China,” Mr. Prior said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow.” “对于依赖中国的小企业来说,形势仍然非常不稳定,令人不安,”普赖尔说。“我不知道明天会发生什么。” Split the cost 分摊成本 Mike Roach, who co-owns a women’s apparel store, Paloma Clothing, in Portland, Ore., made plans on Tuesday to approach his vendors that manufacture in China with an idea: He and his wife, the vendor and the vendor’s manufacturer would each take a 10 percent hit. Under that arrangement, shoppers would not see prices rise. 迈克·罗奇是俄勒冈州波特兰市帕洛玛服装女装店的共同所有者。周二,他计划与中国的供应商接洽,并提出了一个想法:他和妻子、供应商以及供应商的制造商各自承担10%的损失。在这种安排下,消费者不会看到价格上涨。 Whether Mr. Roach’s vendors and their Chinese suppliers all agree is an open question. But, he said, the latest easing in tariff levels at least makes the discussion possible. 罗奇的供应商和他们的中国供应商是否能达成一致,这依然是个未知数。但他表示,最近关税水平的降低至少使讨论成为可能。 “There’s no mitigation you can do at 145 percent,” Mr. Roach said. “That is a complete deal breaker.” “在145%的关税下,你没有办法减轻损失,”罗奇说。“那会彻底破坏交易。” Danielle Kaye是一名商业记者,也是2024年David Carr奖学金项目成员,这是一个为处在职业生涯早期的记者而设立的项目。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨2025年5月16日 Allie Sullberg The email arrived in early February from the U.S. Embassy in Copenhagen, carrying a blunt message. It informed the organizers of a Danish lecture series — one I was soon scheduled to speak at — that the final portion of American funding would be released only after they signed a statement essentially saying they were in compliance with a U.S. executive order banning diversity, equity and inclusion. 这封电子邮件是美国驻哥本哈根大使馆今年2月初发来的,里面的信息直截了当。它通知丹麦一个系列讲座的组织者——已安排我不久来讲课——需要他们在一份声明上签名,美国才会发放最后一部分资金,声明的核心内容是要求他们表示该系列讲座遵守美国禁止多元、公平与共融项目(DEI)的行政命令。 It was a head-spinning turn of events; under President Joe Biden, attention to D.E.I. issues had been a requirement for receiving the grant. Unwittingly, Denmark seemed to have been swept into America’s culture wars. 这一变化令人瞠目;在乔·拜登担任总统期间,关注DEI问题是获得这笔资金的必要条件。丹麦无意间卷入了美国的文化战。 Before the organizers at the University of Southern Denmark could respond, the U.S. State Department sent an even blunter message: The grant was “being terminated for the convenience of the U.S. government.” It concluded by thanking the Danes “for your partnering with the Department of State and God bless America.” 南丹麦大学的组织者们还没来得及回复,美国国务院就发来了一条更直截了当的信息:“为方便起见,美国政府终止了”这项资金。邮件结尾感谢丹麦方面“与国务院的合作关系,愿上帝保佑美国”。 Some partnership! 好一个合作关系! The stakes here were relatively small. The lecture series was respected but not overly prominent, and the savings amounted to a minuscule $10,000. Sometimes, though, a small story reveals a great deal — in this case, about the priorities and obsessions of the Trump administration. 这件事的利害关系相对较小。该系列讲座虽然受尊重,但并不十分出名,取消资助省下来的钱只不过是微不足道的1万美元。然而,一件小事有时能揭示很多东西——在这件事中,它揭示了特朗普政府的优先事项与执念。 First, the two notices suggested there might have been no communication between the State Department and the embassy in Copenhagen — an apparent lack of coordination that we’re likely to see more of as the administration hollows out the government. A recent New York Times/Siena College survey noted that two-thirds of Americans thought the word “chaotic” “described President Trump’s second term in office well. 第一,这两份通知表明,美国国务院与驻哥本哈根大使馆之间可能缺乏沟通。随着这届政府不断掏空行政体系,我们可能会看到更多与这种明显缺少协调类似的情况。《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院最近的一项民意调查注意到,三分之二的美国人认为,“混乱”一词恰如其分地描述了特朗普总统的第二届任期。 Second, the cutoff of funding was followed, nearly two weeks later, by another message to the university. (I viewed copies of all the emails.) It said that a recent court hearing prevented the State Department from holding up congressionally appropriated foreign aid funds and ordered it to make the financing available. It further ordered the department to “provide written notice of this order” to recipients of grants. Notifying the Danish university was as far as the administration went in complying with the court. The remaining funds haven’t been released yet, organizers say — typical of the Trump administration’s defiance of the courts. 第二,资金停止近两周后,南丹麦大学又收到了另一封电子邮件。(我看到了所有邮件的副本。)邮件称,法院在最近一次听证会上阻止了国务院扣发国会已经拨款的外援资金,责令其恢复资金的发放。法院还进一步命令国务院“以书面形式将法院命令通知”受助者。就服从法庭命令而言,特朗普政府止步于仅仅通知校方。组织者说,最后那部分资金尚未发放,这是特朗普政府藐视法庭的惯常做法。 Most important, the episode showed the Trump administration’s willingness — indeed, its determination — to extend its control to the smallest of ventures, in this case the remaining $10,000 for a university lecture series funded by its own embassy. 最重要的是,这件事表明特朗普政府肆意——甚至可以说是处心积虑地——把控制的触角延伸到最微小的活动上去,就这件事而言,不过是使馆资助大学系列讲座的1万美元尾款。 Ultimately, the dean of the faculty of humanities stepped in to provide the necessary money, and I will deliver my lecture on Wednesday. If the school hadn’t had the resources, I would have gone anyway. 南丹麦大学人文学院院长最终出面提供了必要的资金,我将在周三的讲座上做主讲。即使校方没有这笔资金,我也不会爽约。 Ironically, the subject of my talk is my recent book, “The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society,” in which I explain my view of what freedom really means, why it’s so important and what must be done to achieve it. I also discuss ways in which freedom gets suppressed. 具有讽刺意味的是,我讲的主题是我最近出的新书《通往自由之路:经济学与美好社会》(The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society)。书中阐述了我对自由真谛的看法、自由为什么如此重要,以及实现自由必须付出的努力。我也讨论了自由受压制的方式。 A core element of freedom is the ability of each person to live up to his or her potential. A liberal education is essential for this to happen, because it helps students develop their skills and capabilities to the utmost, frees them from shibboleths and enables them to think critically. But this kind of approach is threatening to authoritarianism, which wants to impose particular views on a nation’s citizens. 自由的核心在于每个人都能充分发挥自身的潜力。通识教育对实现这点至关重要,因为它能帮助学生最大限度地发挥才能,破除思想的桎梏,培养批判性思维。但这种教育恰是威权主义的眼中钉,后者企图把特定的观点强加给国民。 In the case of the Danish lecture series, simply discussing diversity, equity and inclusion was apparently deemed threatening to the administration, which asserts that those qualities, by their very nature, are discriminatory against a majority of the population. But Mr. Trump’s “1984”-ish thought police have not stopped at D.E.I. Climate change and gender are other terms that are being expunged. 在丹麦系列讲座这件事上,只是讨论多元、公平与共融显然就被特朗普政府视为威胁,他们声称这些理念本质上是针对多数群体的歧视。但特朗普《1984》式的思想警察并未止步于DEI。气候变化和性别是正在被删除的其他词语。 Another core element of freedom — something essential to its survival — is that power must be limited; there have to be checks and balances not just within government but also within society. I have long warned that the concentration of wealth among a small percentage of the population would provide a fertile field for a demagogue and that there was an ample supply of people who might play the part. 自由的另一个核心要素是权力必须受到限制,这对自由的存续至关重要;不仅政府内部需要有制约与平衡,在社会范围内亦如此。我早就警告过,当社会财富过度集中于极少数人时,就会为蛊惑民心的政客提供肥沃的土壤,而这类角色从不乏人选。 Universities, which protect academic freedom, are as important to this system of checks and balances as other civil rights protections like freedom of the press. 大学的责任之一是捍卫学术自由。对制衡体系来说,大学与新闻自由等其他民权保护措施一样重要。 One of the main justifications for tenure is that it gives professors like me the freedom to speak out when we see the government doing something foolish, like imposing high tariffs on our allies, or something that might impair our freedom over the long run, such as what the Trump administration is doing in areas like immigration and national security. 存在大学终身教职的主要理由之一是,它赋予像我这样的教授们自由,当我们看到政府做某些蠢事,比如对我们的盟友征收高额关税,或做一些可能对我们的自由造成长远损害的事情时,比如特朗普政府在移民和国家安全等方面的所作所为,我们有发声的自由。 Over time, as the partnership between government and universities in producing basic research grew, legislators recognized that a cutoff of federal funding would be disastrous, so they carefully inserted provisions to make sure there was due process if funds were canceled. Little did they imagine, I’m guessing, that the government would try to bypass these provisions. 随着政府与大学在基础研究领域的合作日益深化,立法者们已意识到,切断联邦资金会给大学带来灾难性后果,所以他们在立法中精心设置了一些条款,以确保如果资金被终止,需要走正当程序。我的猜想是,他们完全没想到政府会试图绕过这些条款。 The purpose of the lecture series in Denmark is to reinforce “that the United States and the Kingdom of Denmark share core democratic values.” The Trump administration’s actions have led many Danes to question whether that is, in fact, the case. 丹麦系列讲座的目的是加强“美国与丹麦王国共同拥有的核心民主价值观”。特朗普政府的行为让许多丹麦人怀疑,这一共识是否真的存在。 Denmark saw the termination of the lecture series money for what it was: an attack on the core foundations of freedom. 丹麦把终止系列讲座的资金视为对自由的核心基础的攻击。 And, of course, the episode has taken place against the backdrop of Mr. Trump’s aggressive posture toward Greenland, the vast island overseen by Denmark. On March 4, Mr. Trump declared that the United States would gain control of Greenland “one way or the other.” The barely veiled threat was not received well, either by our close NATO ally Denmark or by Greenland. 当然,这件事发生在特朗普对格陵兰岛采取强硬姿态的背景下,这座巨大岛屿归丹麦管辖。他曾在今年3月4日宣布美国将以“某种方式”获得格陵兰岛的控制权。无论是在与美国关系密切的北约盟友丹麦,还是在格陵兰岛,此番几乎不加掩饰的威胁都没有得到好的响应。 When I was a graduate student, I was lucky enough to be the beneficiary of a Fulbright fellowship, which allowed me to study overseas, so I understand the importance of international knowledge sharing, as well as how it can help to enhance America’s soft power. 我读研究生时有幸成为富布赖特奖学金的受益者,有机会去海外学习,因此我懂得国际知识共享的重要性,以及这种共享如何有助于提升美国的软实力。 For decades, that soft power has been far more important in extending the country’s influence than our military power, as the political scientist Joseph Nye, who died last week, has pointed out. 几十年来,这种软实力在扩大美国影响力上远比我们的军事实力重要,正如上周去世的政治学家约瑟夫·奈已经指出的那样。 This episode with the lecture series has been a lesson in civics and where America is today, and that’s perhaps why it’s received such attention in the Danish media. The Danes have had a front row view of the erosion of America’s democracy. 丹麦系列讲座的这个插曲犹如一堂公民课,展现了美国当下的真实境况,这也许是这件事在丹麦媒体受到如此关注的原因。丹麦人已清楚地看到美国的民主制度在受到侵蚀。 One of the longstanding aims of programs such as the speaker series at the University of Southern Denmark has been to enhance the understanding of America and what is going on in the country. Unintentionally, in this case, it might have been truly successful. 南丹麦大学系列讲座这种项目的一个长期目标是增进人们对美国以及美国正在发生的事情的了解。本次事件可能已经无意地在实现这个目标上取得了真正的成功。 约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨(Joseph E. Stiglitz)是哥伦比亚大学教授,2001年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者,罗斯福研究所首席经济学家,著有《通往自由之路:经济学与美好社会》(The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society)。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
VIVIAN NEREIM2025年5月15日周二,在沙特首都利雅得举行的投资会议上,特朗普总统宣布,美国将不再“对你们的生活方式指手画脚”。 Doug Mills/The New York Times When President Trump declared from the stage of an opulent ballroom in Saudi Arabia that the United States was done nation-building and intervening, that the world’s superpower would no longer be “giving you lectures on how to live,” his audience erupted in applause. 当特朗普总统在沙特阿拉伯一个豪华宴会厅的讲台上宣布,美国将不再进行国家构建和干预,这个超级大国不再“对你们的生活方式指手画脚”时,台下观众爆发出热烈掌声。 He was effectively denouncing decades of American policy in the Middle East, playing to grievances long aired in cafes and sitting rooms from Morocco to Oman. 这番言论实质上否定了美国数十年的中东政策,呼应了从摩洛哥到阿曼的咖啡馆和会客厅里长期流传的不满情绪。 “In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built,” Mr. Trump said on Tuesday, during a sweeping address at an investment conference in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. “And the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand.” “到头来,所谓的国家构建者毁掉的国家远比他们建设的多,”特朗普周二在沙特首都利雅得的一个投资会议上发表的长篇演讲中说,"而那些干预主义者干涉的是他们根本不了解的复杂社会。 He urged the people of the region to chart “your own destinies in your own way.” 他敦促中东地区人民“以自己的方式决定自己的命运”。 Reactions to his speech spread swiftly on mobile phone screens in a Middle East where the American invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan — and more recently, U.S. support for Israel as it intensifies its war in Gaza, which is on the brink of starvation — are ingrained in public consciousness and criticized by monarchists and dissidents alike. 对他演讲的反应通过手机屏幕迅速传遍中东各地。在这个地区,美国入侵伊拉克和阿富汗的记忆——以及近期美国支持以色列在濒临饥荒的加沙发动愈发残酷的战争——已深植公众意识,遭到各国君主主义者和异见人士的一致谴责。 Sultan Alamer, a Saudi academic, joked that Mr. Trump’s remarks sounded like they came from Frantz Fanon, a 20th century Marxist thinker who wrote about the dynamics of colonial oppression. Syrians posted celebratory memes when Mr. Trump announced that he would end American sanctions on their war-ravaged country “in order to give them a chance at greatness.” 沙特学者苏丹·阿拉默开玩笑说,特朗普的言论听起来像是出自20世纪马克思主义思想家弗朗茨·法农之口——这位思想家曾著述殖民压迫的动态逻辑。当特朗普宣布将解除对饱受战争蹂躏的叙利亚的制裁,“以给予他们追求伟大的机会”时,叙利亚网民纷纷转发庆祝表情包。 And in Yemen — another country mired in war and subject to American sanctions — Abdullatif Mohammed implied agreement with Mr. Trump’s notion of sovereignty, even as he expressed frustration with U.S. intervention. 在也门——另一个深陷战争并受到美国制裁的国家——阿卜杜勒拉蒂夫·穆罕默德对美国的干预表示不满的同时,但似乎也认同特朗普的国家主权观念。 也门首都萨那的一个市场。 “When will countries recognize us and let us live like the rest of the world?” Mr. Mohammed, a 31-year-old restaurant manager in the capital, Sana, said when asked about the speech. American airstrikes pounded his city under both former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Mr. Trump, targeting the Iran-backed Houthi militia, until Mr. Trump abruptly declared a cease-fire this month. 31岁的穆罕默德是首都萨那一家餐馆的经理,当被问及对演讲的看法时,他说,“各国何时才能承认我们,让我们像世界其他国家一样生活?”在拜登和特朗普任内,美国针对伊朗支持的胡塞武装发动的空袭,曾经重创了他的城市,直到特朗普本月突然宣布停火。 “Who is Trump to grant pardons, lift sanctions on a country, or impose them?” Mr. Mohammed said. “But that’s how the world works.” “特朗普有什么资格赦免、解除或实施对一个国家的制裁?”穆罕默德说,“但世界就是这样运作的。” Mr. Trump’s remarks came at the start of a four-day jaunt through three wealthy Gulf Arab states: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He was focused in large part on business deals, including more than $1 trillion in investment in the United States pledged by the three Gulf governments. 特朗普的演讲开启了他对沙特、卡塔尔和阿联酋三个海湾阿拉伯富国为期四天的访问。此行主要聚焦商业协议,包括这三个海湾国家承诺向美国投资逾1万亿美元。 But his address in Riyadh made clear that he had broader diplomatic ambitions for his trip. He expressed a “fervent wish” that Saudi Arabia follow two neighbors, the Emirates and Bahrain, to recognize the state of Israel. (Saudi officials have said that will happen only after the establishment of a Palestinian state.) He said he had a keen desire to reach a deal with Iran over its nuclear program, adding that he “never believed in having permanent enemies.” 但他在利雅得的演讲表明,此行还有更广泛的外交抱负。他表示“热切希望”沙特能像阿联酋和巴林那样承认以色列。(沙特官员表示,只有在巴勒斯坦建国后才会承认以色列)。他说他非常希望与伊朗达成核协议,还说自己“从不相信有永远的敌人”。 And on Wednesday, he met the new leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Shara — a former jihadist who led a rebel alliance that ousted the brutal strongman Bashar al-Assad. Mr. Trump posed for a photograph with Mr. al-Shara and the Saudi crown prince in an image that dropped jaws in the region and beyond. 周三,他会见了叙利亚新任领导人艾哈迈德·沙拉,这位前圣战分子领导的叛军联盟推翻了残暴的强人巴沙尔·阿萨德。特朗普与沙拉及沙特王储的合影震动了中东乃至世界。 “Dude, what happened is truly unbelievable,” said Mr. Mohammed, the Yemeni restaurant manager. “老兄,这种事情简直让人难以置信,”也门餐厅的经理穆罕默德说。 Mr. Trump’s address was a sometimes-rambling speech that lasted more than 40 minutes. 特朗普的这场有时显得漫无目的的演讲持续了40多分钟。 In Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, he neglected to mention that he has said before that “Islam hates us” and that the Quran teaches “some very negative vibe.” Instead, he praised the kingdom’s heritage. 在伊斯兰教发源地沙特,他刻意回避了自己此前“伊斯兰教憎恨我们”、“《古兰经》传递了一些非常负面的信息”等言论,而是盛赞沙特的历史传承。 His friendliness in front of the Saudi crowd stood in contrast to Mr. Biden’s chillier approach to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi ruler who directed a yearslong bombing campaign in Yemen and has overseen a widespread crackdown on dissent. When Mr. Biden visited Saudi Arabia, he said that he told the crown prince he believed he was responsible for the 2018 killing and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist critical of the royal family’s rule. 他在沙特民众面前展现的友好姿态与拜登对沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼的冷淡态度形成鲜明对比。作为沙特事实上的统治者,萨勒曼曾主导对也门长达数年的轰炸行动,并大规模镇压异见人士。拜登访问沙特时曾表示,他告诉王储,自己认为王储应对2018年杀害并肢解《华盛顿邮报》专栏作家贾迈勒·卡舒吉一事负责。 Mr. Trump instead heaped plaudits on the Arabian Peninsula and Prince Mohammed, calling him an “incredible man.” 而特朗普却盛赞阿拉伯半岛和王储,称后者是“了不起的人”。 “In recent years, far too many American presidents have been afflicted with the notion that it’s our job to look into the souls of foreign leaders and use U.S. policy to dispense justice for their sins,” Mr. Trump said. “近年来,太多美国总统深陷一种观念,认为我们的职责是审视外国领导人的灵魂,并利用美国的政策伸张正义,惩戒他们的罪孽,”特朗普说道。 周二,特朗普和沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼参观了沙特王室在德拉伊耶的祖居。 His remarks left some Arab listeners worried about what the potential evaporation of American pressure over human rights violations could mean for their countries. 这番言论让一些阿拉伯人担心,美国可能停止就人权问题施压的前景会对他们的国家带来什么影响。 Ibrahim Almadi is the son of a 75-year-old American-Saudi dual national who was arrested in the kingdom over critical social media posts; his father was released but is not allowed to leave Saudi Arabia. In an interview, Mr. Almadi said he had hoped Mr. Trump would speak to Saudi officials about his father’s case during his visit — and that he had tried without success to reach out to officials across his administration. He sees it as the type of human rights violation that previous U.S. administrations would have pressed Saudi officials on. 易卜拉欣·阿尔马迪的75岁父亲是美沙双重国籍,因在社交媒体发表批评性言论在沙特被捕,虽已获释但仍不得离境。在接受采访时,阿尔马迪表示,他曾希望特朗普在访问期间向沙特官员提及父亲的案件,并联系特朗普政府官员未果。他认为,之前的美国政府会就这种侵犯人权的行为向沙特官员施压。 “They are normalizing my dad’s case, which is not normal,” he said of the Trump administration. “他们把我父亲的案件当一般案件处理,这是不正常的,”他在谈及特朗普政府时说。 A White House spokeswoman did not answer questions about whether the president or his aides had raised human rights issues with Saudi officials. Asked about the reaction to his address, the spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, said, “The president has received widespread praise for his speech.” 白宫发言人未回答总统或其助手是否曾向沙特官员提及人权问题。当被问及演讲的反响时,发言人安娜·凯利称:“总统的演讲获得了广泛好评。” Abdullah Alaoudh, a member of a Saudi opposition party in exile and the son of a prominent cleric imprisoned in the kingdom, called the speech a public relations stunt for the benefit of Prince Mohammed. 流亡海外的沙特反对党成员阿卜杜拉·阿拉乌德是一名被囚禁在沙特的著名神职人员的儿子,他称这场演讲是为穆罕默德王储打造的公关噱头。 He added that he found it ironic that Mr. Trump was praising a Middle East built “by the people of the region” when he was speaking to an audience dotted with foreign billionaires and “in front of an authoritarian leader who has brutally silenced all dissent.” 他还说,特朗普在称赞中东“是本地区的人民自己建起来的”时,听众席却坐着很多外国富豪,而且“面前站着一位残酷压制所有异见的威权领导人”。 In the ballroom in Riyadh, Mr. Trump received a standing ovation. 在利雅得的宴会厅里,特朗普受到了听众的起立鼓掌。 “The president’s speech was actually quite consequential,” Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said at a news conference on Wednesday, describing it as an “approach of partnership, of mutual respect.” “特朗普总统的演讲实际上相当重要,”沙特外交大臣费萨尔·本·法尔汉亲王在周三的新闻发布会上表示,并说它体现了一种“伙伴关系和相互尊重的态度”。 Mr. Alamer, a senior resident fellow at the New Lines Institute, a Washington research group, said in an interview that the president’s words reflected themes “that are normally associated with leftist and anti-imperialist intellectuals.” 任华盛顿智库新线研究所高级常驻研究员的阿拉默在接受采访时指出,特朗普的演讲所涉及的主题“通常是与左派和反帝国主义知识分子联系在一起的”。 “While this is surprising in the sense that we, as Arabs, used to be the subject of American lecturing and interventionism, it is also not surprising when we consider that new right-wing populist movements — both in the Gulf and the U.S. — have borrowed some of this rhetoric from leftists and socialists and repurposed it to advance a conservative worldview,” said Mr. Alamer. 阿拉默说:“这在某种意义上令人惊讶,因为我们作为阿拉伯人,过去一直是美国说教和干预的对象;但如果我们考虑到海湾地区和美国的新右翼民粹主义运动从左派和社会主义者那里借用了其中的一些说辞,并将其重新用于推进保守的世界观,这也就不足为奇了。” Negad el-Boraie, a prominent Egyptian human rights lawyer, said he was reluctant to read much into Mr. Trump’s speech, given that he was in Saudi Arabia primarily to talk about investments. 埃及著名人权律师内加德·埃尔-博拉伊表示,鉴于特朗普此次来沙特主要是为了谈投资,他不愿对其演讲过度解读。 But for Mr. el-Boraie, Mr. Trump was merely being honest about what U.S. presidents had always really cared about — American interests — regardless of how much previous presidents draped their agendas in comments about human rights and democracy. 但在埃尔-博拉伊看来,特朗普只是坦诚地说出了历任美国总统真正关心的问题——美国利益——无论前任总统们如何用人权和民主话语包装其议程。 “The U.S. prioritizes its own interests,” he said. “Trump expresses his opinions frankly, and that’s clear in all his speeches.” “美国优先考虑自身的利益,”他说,“特朗普直白地表达了自己的观点,这在他所有演讲中都很明显。” Shuaib Almosawa自也门萨那、Rania Khaled自开罗、 Ismaeel Naar自迪拜、Hwaida Saad及Jacob Roubai自贝鲁特、Muhammad Haj Kadour自大马士革对本文有报道贡献。 Vivian Nereim是时报负责报道阿拉伯半岛国家的首席记者,常驻沙特阿拉伯利雅得。 翻译:杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
MAGGIE HABERMAN, ERIC LIPTON2025年5月15日目前全球范围内飞行的747-200型飞机(“空军一号”的机型)已不到24架。 Eric Lee/The New York Times President Trump has said the United States needs a more “impressive” Air Force One, on par with the sleek jets he has seen in oil-rich nations in the Middle East. 特朗普总统表示,美国需要一架更“气派”的、能与他在中东石油国家看到的豪华飞机相媲美的“空军一号”。 The two 747-200s that serve as Air Force One now — depending on when the president is on board — are more than 30 years old and were meant to be phased out of service years ago. 现在作为“空军一号”使用的两架747-200飞机(当总统乘坐时那架飞机即为“空军一号”)已经服役超过30年,本应在几年前逐步退役。 Efforts over the last 10 years to replace them have met with repeated delays, and the planes aren’t expected to be finished before Mr. Trump leaves office, though perhaps 2027 at the earliest. 过去10年里,替换这两架飞机的努力一再遭到推迟,尽管最早可能在2027年完成,但预计新飞机无法在特朗普卸任前交付使用。 So he has said he plans to accept a Boeing 747-8 known as a “palace in the sky” as a donation from the Qatari royal family to the Pentagon, to then be turned over to his presidential library. The plan — which Qatari officials have said is merely under discussion but not finalized — has drawn immense blowback, including from Republicans, as Mr. Trump has defiantly insisted there’s no problem with it. 因此,他表示,他计划接受卡塔尔王室向五角大楼捐赠的一架被称为“空中宫殿”的波音747-8飞机,然后将其转移到自己的总统图书馆。卡塔尔官员表示,该计划只是在讨论中,尚未最终敲定,但它已引发了包括共和党人在内的巨大反弹,而特朗普公然坚称此事并无不妥。 The aircraft now serving as Air Force One are safe, but they are timeworn, and airplanes are meant to fly only for a certain amount of time before they need to be retired. 现在作为“空军一号”使用的飞机是安全的,但它们已经老旧,飞机在达到一定飞行时长之后就确实需要退役。 “They are just old airplanes — and airplanes have finite lives,” said Frank Kendall, who until early this year served as the Air Force secretary, and who first started working on contracts to replace the two planes during the Obama administration. “There is no question about it that these planes need to be replaced.” “它们是老旧的飞机——而飞机的寿命是有限的,”弗兰克·肯德尔说,他直到今年年初一直担任空军部长,在奥巴马政府期间,他首次开始着手替换这两架飞机的合同事宜。“毫无疑问,这些飞机需要更换。” There are fewer than two dozen 747-200s that fly globally anymore, and spare parts for replacements require work to obtain and often have to be custom made. 目前在全球飞行的747-200飞机不到24架,更换所需的备件难以获得,而且往往必须定制生产。 Presidential jets tend to last for a few decades. In 1990, the U.S. military began using the 747 jets that still fly today, with three floors of space that include a conference room, as well as specialized communications equipment. 总统专机一般可服役几十年。1990年,美国军方开始使用至今仍在飞行的747喷气式飞机,机上有三层空间,包括一个会议室,以及专门的通信设备。 The journey to develop new jets to serve as Air Force One — the call sign for whatever plane the president is traveling aboard — has been long. 研发新型飞机作为“空军一号”(总统所乘飞机的呼号)的历程十分漫长。 It began when President George W. Bush initiated plans for two new presidential aircraft midway through his second term. Mr. Bush had experienced the importance of a functioning presidential aircraft when he and some advisers spent the eight hours after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks traveling aboard Air Force One around the East Coast, the safest place he could be at the time, as he directed the response. 它始于乔治·W·布什总统在第二任期中期提出两架新总统专机的计划。2001年9月11日恐怖袭击发生后,布什和一些顾问乘坐“空军一号”在东海岸飞行了八个小时,这是当时他指挥应对行动时最安全的地方,这段经历让他体会到一架正常运转的总统专机的重要性。 2001年9月11日,乔治·W·布什总统与白宫幕僚长安德鲁·卡德在“空军一号”上。 During President Barack Obama’s tenure, the plans for new planes did not accelerate until his second-to-last year in office. In 2015, the military chose Boeing to deliver 747-8 frames for the new aircraft. 在奥巴马总统任期内,新飞机的计划直到他执政的倒数第二年才加速推进。2015年,军方选择波音公司为新飞机提供747-8机身框架。 They were to be rebuilt with specifications allowing them to withstand radiation that might be in the air after a nuclear blast and certain types of missile attacks, as well as the ability to refuel while in the air. 重造的飞机能够承受核爆炸和某些类型的导弹袭击后可能在空中产生的辐射,并具备空中加油的能力。 The 747 itself cost about $250 million, Mr. Kendall said, but the final Air Force One plane comes with a price tag of at least $2 billion — which Mr. Kendall said illustrates just how comprehensive and time consuming the overhaul of the jet is before it is ready to carry the president. 肯德尔说,波音747本身的成本约为2.5亿美元,但最终的“空军一号”飞机的价格至少为20亿美元。肯德尔说,这表明了在飞机准备就绪搭载总统之前改造的复杂和耗时程度。 The work includes building a flying version of the Situation Room inside the plane, a communications system enabling the president to get in touch with any military or political leader in the world, a mini medical clinic, and defensive measures in case there is an enemy missile trying to take it down. 这项工作包括在飞机内建造一个空中战情室、一个能使总统与全球任何军事或政治领导人取得联系的通信系统、一个小型医疗诊所,以及为防止敌方导弹试图击落飞机而装备的防御措施。 “It’s not just an airplane anymore,” Mr. Kendall said. “It is a flying White House.” “它不仅仅是一架飞机了,”肯德尔说。“它是一个会飞的白宫。” In 2018, with progress on the planes moving slowly, Mr. Trump’s administration granted Boeing a contract — renegotiated from one that had existed under Mr. Obama — for two new 747-8 planes. Instead of building them from scratch, they would use the frames of jets built for a Russian airline that went out of business. 2018年,由于新专机进展缓慢,特朗普政府授予波音两架新747-8飞机的合同——是在奥巴马执政时期的合同基础上重新谈判而来。这两架飞机将使用为一家倒闭的俄罗斯航空公司制造的飞机的框架,而不是从零开始制造。 They were to be equipped with military hardening and defense systems, in the hopes that Mr. Trump might be able to fly on them at the end of his first term. 这两架飞机将配备军事加固和防御系统,希望特朗普在第一个任期结束时能够乘坐它们飞行。 But the coronavirus pandemic helped cause a fresh round of delays. The company that was contracted to produce the specialized interior — not just belt buckles and seats but communications and storage systems — went out of business. Boeing also saw supply line shortages for some parts. 但新冠病毒大流行导致了新一轮的延误。承包生产专用内部设备——不仅包括安全带扣和座椅,还有通信和存储系统——的公司倒闭了。波音公司也出现了部分零部件的供应短缺。 Yet Boeing suffered a string of problems unrelated to the pandemic, as well. Among them, the Federal Aviation Administration identified cracks in frames of Boeing 747-8 planes that required extensive fixes. 然而,波音公司也遭遇了一系列与疫情无关的问题,其中包括美国联邦航空管理局发现波音747-8机身框架存在裂缝,需要进行大规模修复。 All of that has meant the planes that were to be delivered by 2024 are still behind schedule, and may not be ready by the time Mr. Trump leaves office. 所有这些都意味着原定于2024年交付的飞机仍落后于计划,可能无法在特朗普卸任时准备就绪。 That has infuriated Mr. Trump, who once owned an airline shuttle service and knows a great deal about planes, having owned private planes over time. Mr. Trump owns a used 757 airplane known as Trump Force One that has been decorated with gold and mahogany tables. 这让特朗普大为光火,他曾经拥有过一家航空公司,对飞机非常了解,而且多年来一直拥有私人飞机。特朗普拥有一架二手757飞机,被称为“特朗普军一号”(Trump Force One),机内装饰着黄金和红木桌。 特朗普的飞机常被称为 “特朗普军一号”,采用蓝、红、白三色配色,这与他希望新“空军一号”采用的颜色相同。 Its color scheme is blue, red and white — the same colors he wants for the new Air Force One, to replace the familiar robin’s egg blue of the current design. Mr. Trump has traveled around with a model of the new Air Force One since he left office, proudly displaying it in the main room at Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Florida, in the years between his two terms. 它的配色是蓝色、红色和白色——与他希望的新“空军一号”的配色相同,以取代目前设计中人们熟悉的知更鸟蛋蓝色。在两届任期之间的几年里,特朗普经常随身带着新版“空军一号“的模型,或是自豪地把它展示在他位于佛罗里达州的私人俱乐部马阿拉歌庄园的大厅里。 But the age of the current Air Force One planes seems to bother Mr. Trump less than the visuals. He believes they don’t possess the level of impressive symbolism of America that he thinks they should, and that the leaders of the oil-rich nations he is currently visiting have nicer planes than the ones he travels on. 但比起飞机的机龄,特朗普似乎更在意“空军一号”的外观。他认为这两架飞机没有他认为应该具备的那种令人印象深刻的美国象征意义,而他目前访问的石油富国领导人的飞机比他乘坐的飞机更好。 “The plane that you’re on right now is almost 40 years old,” Mr. Trump told the Fox News host Sean Hannity during an interview aboard Air Force One as Mr. Trump traveled to the Middle East this week. “你现在坐的这架飞机差不多有40年的历史了,”特朗普本周乘坐“空军一号”访问中东期间接受福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼提采访时表示。 “And when you land and you see Saudi Arabia, and you see U.A.E., and you see Qatar and you see all these — and they have these brand-new Boeing 747s mostly, and you see ours next to it, this is like a totally different plane. It’s much smaller. It’s much less impressive, as impressive as it is,” Mr. Trump said. “降落的时候,你会看到沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔,你会看到所有这些国家——他们大部分都拥有全新的波音747,你会看到我们的飞机就在它旁边,这就像一架完全不同的飞机。它要小得多。尽管它本身很气派,但没他们的飞机那么气派,”特朗普说。 “And we’re the United States of America. I believe that we should have the most impressive plane,” he said. “我们是美利坚合众国。我认为我们应该拥有最气派的飞机,”他说。 But taking possession of a gifted Qatari jet is only the first step of a very complex and lengthy process that would be necessary to prepare it to become a true Air Force One, Mr. Kendall said. 但肯德尔说,拥有一架卡塔尔赠送的飞机只是一个非常复杂而漫长的过程的第一步,要想让它成为真正的“空军一号”,还需要一个非常复杂和漫长的过程。 “What they will get is a luxury airplane designed to fly around an emir or some member of the royal family in an opulent flying palace,” he said. “But that is nothing like the capability and unique features of an Air Force One. The Air Force can paint it with the colors that President Trump wants, but it won’t be an Air Force One.” “他们将得到的是一架豪华飞机,是专为酋长或王室成员打造的奢华飞行宫殿,”他说。“但这与‘空军一号’的能力和独特功能完全无法相比。空军可以把它涂成特朗普总统想要的颜色,但它不会是‘空军一号’。” Maggie Haberman是时报白宫记者,负责报道特朗普总统。 Eric Lipton是时报调查记者,他深入报道从五角大楼开支到有毒化学品等一系列议题。 翻译:晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
JENNIFER SZALAI2025年5月15日 ORIGINAL SIN: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again, by Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson 《原罪——拜登总统的衰退,掩盖,以及他再次参选的灾难性选择》(Original Sin: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again),杰克·塔珀和亚历克斯·汤普森著 In Christian theology, original sin begins with Adam and Eve eating the forbidden fruit from the tree of knowledge. But Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson’s “Original Sin” chronicles a different fall from grace. The cover image is a black-and-white portrait of Joe Biden with a pair of hands clamped over his eyes. The biblical story is about the danger of innocent curiosity; the story in this new book is about the danger of willful ignorance. 在基督教神学中,原罪始于亚当和夏娃吃了智慧树上的禁果。但杰克·塔珀和亚历克斯·汤普森的《原罪》讲述了一个不同的堕落故事。封面是一张乔·拜登双手捂眼的黑白照片。《圣经》故事讲的是天真好奇的危险;这本新书的故事是关于故意无知的危险。 “The original sin of Election 2024 was Biden’s decision to run for re-election — followed by aggressive efforts to hide his cognitive diminishment,” Tapper and Thompson write. On the evening of June 27, 2024, Democratic voters watched the first presidential debate in amazement and horror: A red-faced Donald Trump let loose a barrage of audacious whoppers while Biden, slack-jawed and pale, struggled to string together intelligible rebuttals. “2024年大选的原罪是拜登决定竞选连任——随后又极力掩盖自己认知能力的下降,”塔珀和汤普森写道。2024年6月27日晚,民主党选民惊讶而恐惧地观看了第一场总统辩论:满面红光的特朗普大放厥词,而拜登目瞪口呆,脸色苍白,勉力拼凑出能听得懂的反驳。 Trump’s debate performance was of a piece with his rallies, a jumble of nonsensical digressions and wild claims. But for many Americans, the extent of Biden’s frailty came as a shock. Most of the president’s appearances had, by then, become tightly controlled affairs. For at least a year and a half, Biden’s aides had been scrambling to accommodate an octogenarian president who was becoming increasingly exhausted and confused. According to “Original Sin,” which makes pointed use of the word “cover-up” in the subtitle, alarmed donors and pols who sought the lowdown on Biden’s cognitive state were kept in the dark. Others had daily evidence of Biden’s decline but didn’t want to believe it. 特朗普在辩论上的表现和他在竞选集会上是一致的,混杂着荒谬的离题和狂妄的主张。但对许多美国人来说,拜登的衰弱程度令人震惊。到那个时候,总统的大部分露面都已成为受到严格控制的事情。至少在一年半的时间里,拜登的助手们一直在努力照应一个越来越疲惫、越来越困惑的耄耋总统。《原罪》在副标题中尖锐地使用了“掩盖”一词,根据这本书的说法,那些惊慌失措、想要了解拜登认知状态真相的捐款人和民意调查机构被蒙在鼓里。还有一些人每天都能看到拜登衰落的证据,但不愿相信。 Tapper is an anchor for CNN (and also served as a moderator for the presidential debate); Thompson is a national political correspondent for Axios. In an authors’ note, they explain that they interviewed approximately 200 people, including high-level insiders, “some of whom may never acknowledge speaking to us but all of whom know the truth within these pages.” 塔珀是CNN的主播(也曾担任总统辩论的主持人);汤普森是Axios的国家政治记者。在作者声明中,他们解释说,他们采访了大约200人,包括高层内部人士,“其中一些人可能永远不会承认曾与我们交谈,但他们都知道书中所说的真相。” The result is a damning, step-by-step account of how the people closest to a stubborn, aging president enabled his quixotic resolve to run for a second term. The authors trace the deluge of trouble that flowed from Biden’s original sin: the sidelining of Vice President Kamala Harris; the attacks on journalists (like Thompson) who deigned to report on worries about Biden’s apparent fatigue and mental state; an American public lacking clear communication from the president and left to twist in the wind. “It was an abomination,” one source told the authors. “He stole an election from the Democratic Party; he stole it from the American people.” 这本书一步步地描述了与这位年迈固执的总统关系最密切的人如何使他下定不切实际的决心,进行连任竞选。两位作者追溯了拜登的原罪带来的大量麻烦:副总统贺锦丽(Kamala Harris)被边缘化;如汤普森这样因担心拜登明显的疲劳和精神状态,因而竟敢进行报道的记者遭到攻击;美国公众缺乏来自总统的明确沟通,只能听天由命。“这是一件令人憎恶的事,”一位消息人士告诉作者。“他偷走了民主党的选举;他从美国人民手里偷走了选举。” This blistering charge is attributed to “a prominent Democratic strategist” who also “publicly defended Biden.” In “Original Sin,” the reasons given for saying nice things in public about the president are legion. Some Democrats, especially those who didn’t see the president that often, relied on his surrogates for reassurance about his condition (“He’s fine, he’s fine, he’s fine”); others were wary of giving ammunition to the Trump campaign, warning that he was an existential threat to the country. Tapper and Thompson are scornful of such rationales: “For those who tried to justify the behavior described here because of the threat of a second Trump term, those fears should have shocked them into reality, not away from it.” 这一尖锐的指控来自“一位知名民主党战略家”,但他也曾“公开为拜登辩护”。在《原罪》中,在公开场合说总统好话的理由有很多。一些民主党人,尤其是那些不经常见到总统的人,依靠总统的代理人来得知他的情况(“他很好,他很好,他很好”);还有人担心会给特朗普的竞选活动提供弹药,他们警告说,特朗普是关乎国家存亡的威胁。塔珀和汤普森对这样的理由不以为然:“对于那些试图以特朗普连任的威胁为理由,试图为本书描述的行为辩护的人来说,这些恐惧本应该让他们震惊,从而面对现实,而不是因此就远离现实。” Biden announced that he would be running for re-election in April 2023; he had turned 80 the previous November and was already the oldest president in history. Over his long life, he had been through a lot: the death of his wife and daughter in a car accident in 1972; two aneurysm surgeries in 1988; the death of his son Beau in 2015; the seemingly endless trouble kicked up by his son Hunter, a recovering addict whose legal troubles included being under investigation by the Justice Department. 2023年4月,拜登宣布他将竞选连任;去年11月,他已满80岁,成为历史上年龄最大的总统。在漫长的一生中,他经历了很多:1972年,他的妻子和女儿在一场车祸中丧生;1988年,他做了两次动脉瘤手术;2015年,他的儿子博去世;他的另一个儿子亨特似乎惹上了无穷无尽的麻烦——他是一名戒毒者,法律上的麻烦包括正在接受司法部的调查。 Yet Biden always bounced back. The fact that he defied the naysayers and beat the odds to win the 2020 election was, for him and his close circle of family and advisers, a sign that he was special — and persistently underestimated. They maintained “a near-religious faith in Biden’s ability to rise again,” the authors write. “And as with any theology, skepticism was forbidden.” 然而,拜登总是能东山再起。他不顾人们的反对,克服困难赢得2020年大选,对他和他亲密的家人及顾问圈子来说,这表明他很特别——而且一直被低估。他们“对拜登再次崛起的能力抱有近乎宗教般的信念”,两位作者写道。“和任何神学一样,怀疑态度是被禁止的。” In 2019, when Biden announced a presidential run, he was 76. It was still a time when “Good Biden was far more present than Old Biden.” By 2023, the authors suggest, that ratio had reversed. Some of his decline was hard to distinguish from what they call “the Bidenness,” which included his longtime reputation for gaffes, meandering stories and a habit of forgetting staffers’ names. 2019年宣布竞选总统时,拜登已经76岁。在那时候,“以良好面目出现的拜登,要远多于以老迈面目出现的拜登。”两位作者认为,到2023年,情况发生了逆转。拜登的衰退在一定程度上很难与他们所说的“拜登特色”区分开来,其中包括他长期以来的失言、瞎编故事和忘记员工名字的习惯。 But people who didn’t see Biden on a daily basis were increasingly taken aback when they finally laid eyes on him. They would remark on how his once booming voice had become a whisper, how his confident stride had become a shuffle. An aghast congressman recalls being reminded of his father, who had Alzheimer’s; another thought of his father, too, who died of Parkinson’s. 但是,那些并非每天都能见到拜登的人在终于见到他时,却会越来越吃惊。他们会说他那曾经洪亮的声音如何变成了耳语,他那自信的步伐如何变得蹒跚。一位震惊的国会议员回忆说,拜登让他想起了罹患阿兹海默症的父亲;另一位议员也说,拜登让他想起自己死于帕金森症的父亲。 The people closest to Biden landed on some techniques to handle (or disguise) what was happening: restricting urgent business to the hours between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.; instructing his writers to keep his speeches brief so that he didn’t have to spend too much time on his feet; having him use the short stairs to Air Force One. When making videos, his aides sometimes filmed “in slow motion to blur the reality of how slowly he actually walked.” By late 2023, his staff was pushing as much of his schedule as they could to midday. 与拜登关系最密切的人想出了一些手法来处理(或掩饰)正在发生的事情:将紧急事务限制在上午10点至下午4点之间;指示拜登的撰稿人让演讲保持简短,这样他就不用花太多时间站着;让他用短舷梯上空军一号;在制作视频时,他的助手有时会“用慢动作拍摄,以模糊他实际走路有多慢的现实”。到2023年底,他的工作人员会尽可能把日程安排在中午左右。 When White House aides weren’t practicing fastidious stage management, they seemed to be sticking their heads in the sand. According to a forthcoming book by Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf, Biden’s aides decided against his taking a cognitive test in early 2024. Tapper and Thompson quote a physician who served as a consultant to the White House Medical Unit for the last four administrations and expressed his dismay at the idea of withholding such information: “If there’s no diagnosis, there’s nothing to disclose.” 在严格的舞台管理之外的时间里,白宫助手们似乎总是把头埋在沙子里。根据乔什·道西、泰勒·佩格和艾萨克·阿恩斯多夫即将出版的一本书,拜登的助手们决定不让他在2024年初参加认知测试。塔珀和汤普森引用了一位在过去四届政府中担任白宫医疗部门顾问的医生的话,他对隐瞒这些信息的想法感到失望:“没有诊断,也就不需要披露了。” Just how much of this rigmarole was desperate rationalization versus deliberate scheming is never entirely clear. Tapper and Thompson identify two main groups that closed ranks around Biden: his family and a group of close aides known internally as “the Politburo” that included his longtime strategist Mike Donilon and his counselor Steve Ricchetti. The family encouraged Biden’s view of himself as a historic figure. The Politburo was too politically hard-nosed for that. Instead, its members pointed to Biden’s record in office and the competent people around him. The napping, the whispering, the shuffling — all that stuff had merely to do with the “performative” parts of the job. 这种迂回曲折的做法到底有多少是绝望的自我行为合理化,有多少是深思熟虑的诡计,至今仍难以完全厘清。塔珀和汤普森指出,团结在拜登身边的主要有两个群体:他的家人,以及一群在内部被称为“政治局”的亲信,其中包括他的长期策略师迈克·多尼伦和顾问史蒂夫·里凯蒂。拜登的家人鼓励拜登将自己视为一个历史性人物。而“政治局”则只讲政治上的精明算计。其成员强调拜登的执政记录和他身边有能力的人。至于那些打盹、耳语、步履蹒跚——他们都简单地归于总统工作中的“表演”部分。 Tapper and Thompson vehemently disagree. They offer a gracious portrait of Robert Hur, the special counsel who investigated Biden’s handling of classified materials and in his February 2024 report famously described the president as a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Biden and his team were incensed and tried “to slime Hur as an unprofessional right-wing hack,” but the authors defend his notorious line. They emphasize that it is incumbent upon a special counsel to spell out how the subject of an investigation would probably appear to a jury — and that what Hur wrote about Biden was true. 塔珀和汤普森对此强烈反对。他们对调查拜登处理机密材料的特别顾问罗伯特·赫尔做了一番正面的描述,赫尔在自己2024年2月的报告中,将总统描述为一位“富有同情心、善意、记忆力差的老人”。拜登和他的团队被激怒了,并试图“诬蔑赫尔是一个不专业的右派打手”,但两位作者为这句著名的话辩护。他们强调,特别检察官有责任阐明调查对象如果出现在陪审团面前,可能是什么样的形象,而且赫尔所写的关于拜登的内容是真实的。 Of course, in an election like 2024, when the differences between the candidates are so stark and the stakes are so high, nearly every scrap of information gets viewed through the lens of “Will it help my team win?” Even competently administered policy could not compensate for a woeful inability to communicate with the American people. In a democracy, this is a tragedy — especially if you believe, as Biden did, that a second Trump term would put the very existence of that democracy in peril. 当然,在像2024年这样的选举中,候选人之间的差异如此明显,利害关系如此重大,几乎每一个信息都会被从“是否有助于我的团队获胜?”的视角来看待。即使政策管理得当,也无法弥补难以同美国人民沟通的可悲无能。在一个民主国家,这是一场悲剧——尤其是如果你像拜登一样相信,特朗普的第二个任期将危及这个民主国家的生存。 Earlier this month, in what looks like an attempt to get ahead of the book’s publication, Biden went on “The View” to say that he accepts some responsibility for Trump’s victory: “I was in charge.” But he was dismissive about reports of any cognitive decline. In “Original Sin,” Tapper and Thompson describe him waking up the morning after the 2024 election thinking that if only he had stayed in the race, he would have won. “That’s what the polls suggested, he would say again and again,” the authors write. There was just one problem with his reasoning: “His pollsters told us that no such polls existed.” 本月早些时候,似乎是为了赶在这本书出版之前表态,拜登在《观点》(The View)节目上表示,他对特朗普的胜利负有一定责任。“我是负责人。”但他对任何有关他认知能力下降的报道不屑一顾。在《原罪》中,塔珀和汤普森描述了他在2024年大选后的早晨醒来时的想法:如果他继续竞选,他是会赢的。“这是民意调查显示的,他会一遍又一遍地这样说,”作者写道。他的这个说法只有一个问题:“他的民意调查专家告诉我们,根本不存在这样的民意调查。” ORIGINAL SIN: President Biden’s Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again | By Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson | Penguin Press | 332 pp. | $32 《原罪——拜登总统的衰退,掩盖,以及他再次参选的灾难性选择》| 杰克·塔珀和亚历克斯·汤普森著 | 企鹅出版社 | 332页 | 32美元 Jennifer Szalai是《纽约时报》非虚构类图书书评人。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
储百亮2025年5月15日中国领导人习近平在日本大阪等候与美国总统特朗普举行会晤,摄于2019年。 Erin Schaff/The New York Times Even as the United States and China take steps to rein in their trade war, Beijing is preparing for broader rivalry with Washington to continue. For China, that means its search for economic and diplomatic opportunities across Asia is unlikely to soften its tough line on its regional territorial claims and military competition. 尽管美国和中国正在采取措施控制两国之间的贸易战,但北京方面仍在为与华盛顿持续展开更广泛竞争做准备。对中国来说,这意味着它在亚洲各地寻求经济和外交机会的同时,不太可能软化在该地区领土主张和军事竞争上的强硬立场。 Both sides have agreed to temporarily cut the startlingly high tariffs they had imposed on each other’s goods. But the tariff truce will not allay other grievances that Beijing has with Washington, such as over a Pentagon vow to shift military forces to Asia and the Pacific, and the continuing efforts to limit China’s access to advanced technology. 双方虽已同意暂时降低对彼此商品征收的惊人高额关税。但暂停关税战并不能消除中国政府对美国政府的其他不满,例如五角大楼誓言将军事力量转移到亚太地区,以及继续限制中国获取先进技术的努力。 The climb-down on tariffs may open the way to a call, and a summit, between President Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping. But Mr. Trump’s high tariffs have already weakened guarded hopes in Beijing that Mr. Xi could appeal to Mr. Trump’s deal-maker side, said experts who have spoken to Chinese officials and policy advisers. While Beijing will vigorously pursue opportunities in talks with the Trump administration, it will steel for a possible flare-up of tensions — repeating the pattern of relations during Mr. Trump’s first term. 此番关税上的让步或将为美国总统特朗普与中国最高领导人习近平通话乃至峰会铺平道路。但据与中国官员和政策顾问有过交流的专家透露,特朗普的高关税已经削弱了中国政府曾经持有的谨慎希望,那就是习近平能用特朗普喜欢做交易的特点引起他的兴趣。尽管中国政府将果断地寻求与特朗普政府谈判的机会,但也将为可能再次爆发紧张局势做好应对准备,这或将重演特朗普首个总统任期内双方关系的波动态势。 “I think it validates Beijing’s view that it was correct to take a dark view of U.S. intentions — and prepare for the eventuality of a second trade war with the policies it has pursued in the years since the first trade war” during Mr. Trump’s first term, said Jonathan Czin, the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, who formerly worked in the Central Intelligence Agency analyzing Chinese politics. “我认为这印证了中国政府的看法,它认为美国有险恶意图,因此要为可能爆发的第二次贸易战做准备,自(特朗普上次担任总统期间)爆发第一次贸易战后,中国政府多年里一直在为此布局,”席恩(Jonathan Czin)说,他是布鲁金斯学会的迈克尔·H·阿玛科斯特冠名外交政策研究教授,曾在中央情报局分析中国政治。 “My suspicion is that Beijing sees this as a tactical retreat by the U.S. rather than a more fundamental shift away from hostility toward the Chinese Communist Party," Mr. Czin said of the tariff pause agreed in Geneva. “我的怀疑是,中国政府将暂停关税战视为美国的战术性撤退,而非从根本上改变对中共的敌意,”席恩在谈到美中于日内瓦达成的暂停加征关税的协议时说。 特朗普上个月在白宫宣布实施对等关税。中国政府曾谨慎地希望中国最高领导人习近平能利用特朗普喜欢做交易的特点,但这项宣布使得中国的希望破灭。 President Trump’s tariffs on much of the world have given Mr. Xi an opportunity to present China as a friendly, trustworthy alternative, a theme that he promoted during a recent visit to Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia and meetings this week with Latin American leaders. 特朗普宣布对全球大部分地区征收关税,这给了习近平机会,让他能将中国展示为一个友好的、值得信赖的替代选项,他在最近访问越南、柬埔寨、马来西亚期间,以及本周与拉丁美洲国家领导人见面时,都强调了这一主题。 But China’s emerging approach to the Trump era also includes flexing its power: basically, telling other governments, especially in Asia, not to expect Beijing to hold back its regional claims and ambitions. 但中国针对特朗普时代采取的新策略也包括展示自身实力:基本上是在告诉其他国家,尤其是亚洲国家的政府,不要指望中国会在区域领土主张和野心上犹豫。 On the same day that Washington and Beijing announced their truce on tariffs, a Chinese government policy-setting document warned that “external forces” posed increasing “threats to China’s frontier regions, border areas, and security in its surrounding areas.” 就在美中宣布暂停关税战的同一天,中国政府的一份指导政策制定的文件警告说,“域外势力加大插手中国周边事务力度,给中国边疆、边境、周边安全造成威胁”。 “The Asia-Pacific region has become a focus of contestation between major powers,” said the Chinese national security white paper issued on Monday. “Certain countries have been strengthening their military alliances in the Asia-Pacific, courting regional partners, forming exclusionary ‘cliques’,” it said, in a reference to the United States and its partners. “亚太地区成为大国博弈焦点,”中国政府周一发布的国家安全白皮书称。“个别国家强化亚太军事同盟,拉拢地区盟伴,构建排他性‘小集团’,”它指的是美国及其伙伴。 “Sure, it will continue to try to leverage the upheaval in Washington’s trade policy by presenting itself as a beacon of stability and predictability,” Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, said of China. “But it will not relent in pressing its claims in the multiple sovereignty disputes it has with its maritime neighbors.”. “当然,中国将继续试图利用美国的贸易政策引发的动荡将自身塑造为一个稳定性和可预测性的灯塔,”悉尼洛伊研究所东亚事务高级研究员马利德(Richard McGregor)在谈到中国时说。“但在与海上邻国的主权争端中,中国不会放弃推进自己的领土主张。” Early this month, a Chinese Coast Guard helicopter flew into airspace near disputed islands also claimed, and controlled, by Japan, an escalation in long-running friction over the islands, called Diaoyu by China and Senkaku by Japan. China said it was responding to a provocative flight over the islands by a Japanese plane. 本月初,一架中国海警直升机飞入了中日争议岛屿附近的空域,加剧了围绕着这些岛屿的长期分歧。日本控制着这些岛屿,称其为尖阁诸岛,而中国称之为钓鱼岛。中国称此举是对日本飞机挑衅性飞越这些岛屿的回应。 美国和菲律宾军队本月在菲律宾阿帕里举行了联合军事演习。 This month, too, China’s Coast Guard landed on Sandy Cay, a sliver of sand in the disputed South China Sea that is also claimed by the Philippines. Their action came days before the United States and the Philippines began annual joint military exercises in the Philippines. 中国海警还在本月登上了铁线礁,那是位于南海的一个小沙洲,菲律宾也声称对其拥有主权。中国海警的行动发生在美国和菲律宾开始在该国举行年度联合军事演习几天前。 Above all, the Chinese government remains on edge over Taiwan, the democratically governed island that Beijing claims as its territory. In early April, the People’s Liberation Army held exercises around Taiwan to practice imposing a blockade. 最令中国政府警觉的依然是台湾问题。台湾是一个民主自治的岛屿,中国政府称其为自己的领土。今年4月初,中国人民解放军在台湾周围进行了实施封控的演习。 China’s leaders saw no contradiction in their mix of sweet talk and hardball actions, said Julian Gewirtz, a former senior China policy official at the White House and State Department during the Biden administration. 曾在拜登政府时期担任白宫和国务院中国政策高级官员的朱利安·格维茨说,中国领导人认为其软硬皆施的做法并不矛盾。 “They believe it is precisely the moment to set the relationship with China’s neighbors — particularly those that they worry have grown too close with Washington — on more advantageous terms,” Mr. Gewirtz said. “It is a moment when they believe those states’ ability to push back is diminished and where China’s leaders can say ‘We can, yes, offer economic and technology deals and other incentives. But we also can continue to push on our territorial claims.’ And those two things coexist very comfortably in their minds.” “他们认为,现在正是与中国的邻国——尤其是那些他们担心与美国关系过于密切的国家——在更有利的基础上建立关系的时刻,”格维茨说。“他们认为,这些国家当前的反抗能力已经减弱,同时中国的领导人可以明确表示‘对,我们能够提供经济科技合作等利好条件,但我们也能继续推进领土主张’。这两者在他们的战略思维中完全可以并行不悖。” Rifts have opened up between the United States and many traditional allies, especially in Europe. But so far, Mr. Trump’s policies have not shaken traditional U.S. alliances in Asia and the Pacific to the same degree. Marco Rubio attended a meeting with foreign ministers from India, Japan and Australia on his first full day as Secretary of State. Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan issued a joint statement that mentioned their shared concerns about Chinese threats to Taiwan. 美国与许多传统盟友(尤其是欧洲盟友)的关系出现了裂痕。但迄今为止,特朗普的政策尚未在美国亚太地区的传统盟友中造成同等程度的冲击。鲁比奥就任国务卿的第一天就参加了与印度、日本、澳大利亚外长举行的会议。特朗普与日本首相石破茂发表了一份联合声明,其中提到他们对中国威胁台湾的共同担忧。 北京街头的大屏幕上播放的中国在台湾周边军行军事演习的新闻,摄于上个月。专家们预测,中国在与海上邻国的主权争端中坚持自己的领土主张上不会有所缓和。 “There is continuity here in this region — with Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Australia,” said Ely Ratner, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs under President Biden, said of alliance ties under Mr. Trump. “在该地区,与日本、菲律宾、台湾以及澳大利亚的关系保持着连续性,”曾在拜登政府负责印太安全事务的国防部助理部长伊莱·拉特纳在谈到特朗普领导下的美国盟友关系时说。 “Both sides, the U.S. and its Asian partners, are trying to silo off their defense and security relationship from the trade and tariff environment,” said Mr. Ratner, now a principal at the Marathon Initiative, a group that studies U.S. competition with China and other rivals. “The challenge now for Beijing is that most of America’s allies view China as their primary national security threat.” “美国及其亚洲盟友都在试图将双方在国防和安全方面的关系与贸易和关税环境区隔开来,”拉特纳说,他目前是“马拉松倡议”(Marathon Initiative)的负责人,该组织研究美国与中国等竞争对手的关系。“中国政府现在面临的挑战是,美国的大多数盟友都将中国视为自己主要的国家安全威胁。” China has cheered the dismantling of the office overseeing the Voice of America and other agencies promoting democracy and human rights under Mr. Trump. 中国对特朗普政府关闭美国之音和其他促进民主人权机构表示欢迎。 But Mr. Xi and other Chinese leaders had a dim view of the United States’ intentions well before Mr. Trump entered politics. And in Mr. Trump’s first term, shows of bonhomie between him and Mr. Xi gave way to a trade war, then an agreement that faltered, with Washington accusing China of not honoring its side of the bargain. There was also acrimony over the origins of Covid, U.S. controls on technology exports, and each sides’ military aims. 但早在特朗普进入政坛之前,习近平和其他中国领导人就对美国的意图持有疑虑。特朗普在上次担任总统期间曾与习近平展示友好姿态,但这种关系为贸易战所取代,双方后来达成的贸易协议也渐渐破裂,美国指责中国未履行自己的承诺。此外,两国在新冠病毒起源、美国限制向中国出口技术,以及彼此军事目标等问题上也存在纠纷。 This time, the mutual back down on tariffs will not dispel deep distrust between China and the United States, said Shen Dingli, a scholar of international relations in Shanghai. If both sides keep dialing back on their trade disputes, relations may improve for a year or two, but then are likely to worsen again, Mr. Shen said, “because we have too many points of disagreement.” 双方这次在关税上的相互让步并不能消除两国之间根深蒂固的不信任,上海国际关系学者沈丁立说。如果双方继续缓和贸易争端,双边关系可能会在一两年内有所改善,但以后可能会再次恶化,沈丁立说,“因为我们有太多的分歧点。” 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者,自台北报道中国和台湾问题,重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
BEN CASSELMAN2025年5月14日 The temporary reduction in tariffs that the United States and China announced in Geneva on Monday will lift, at least for now, the de facto trade embargo that had been in place between the two countries for the past month. It will reduce the chances that American shoppers will face empty shelves during the holiday season and perhaps limit the price increases they will have to endure. It sent stock prices soaring around the world. 美国和中国周一在日内瓦宣布暂时降低关税,至少目前将解除过去一个月来两国之间实际上的贸易禁运。这将降低美国消费者在假日季节面临货架空无一物的可能性,或许还能限制他们不得不忍受的价格上涨。这使得全球股票价格飙升。 But the deal does little to clear the cloud of uncertainty that has hung over the U.S. economy since President Trump took office in January. 但是,该协议对于清除自特朗普总统1月就职以来笼罩在美国经济上的不确定性几乎没有帮助。 If anything, the latest news serves only to reinforce the degree to which trade policy lies in the hands of one man, who sees his unpredictability as a strategic strength and scoffs at the kind of careful, deliberative process that has characterized policymaking under previous administrations. 如果有什么不同的话,那就是最新的消息只会进一步凸显了这样一个现实:美国的贸易政策掌握在特朗普总统一人手中,他将自己的不可预测性视为一种战略优势,并嘲笑以往的政府在谨小慎微的决策过程。 In a little over a month, Mr. Trump has imposed steep tariffs on virtually every U.S. trading partner, then rolled them back temporarily. He has raised tariffs on China, then increased them further in response to Chinese retaliation, and now rolled back those tariffs as well — but only partially, and only for 90 days. Those back-and-forth decisions followed an earlier series of reversals, which on at least two occasions included tariffs that were announced and rescinded within a single day. 一个多月内,特朗普对几乎所有美国贸易伙伴征收了高额关税,然后又暂时取消。他提高了对中国的关税,然后进一步提高关税以回应中国的报复,现在他又降低了这些关税——但只是部分降低,而且只持续90天。在这些反复的决定之前,他还进行了一系列的逆转,其中至少有两次包括了在一天内宣布并取消的关税。 “Many of our trading partners now look at the U.S. and say, ‘Is this now the way trade policy continues in the future?’” said Steven J. Davis, a Stanford economist who has studied the way uncertainty affects the economy. “I think it’s quite clear that other countries around the world are reassessing their view of the United States as a reliable trading partner.” “我们的许多贸易伙伴现在看着美国说,‘未来的贸易政策就是一直这样下去吗?’”研究不确定性如何影响经济的斯坦福大学经济学家史蒂文·戴维斯说。“我认为,很明显,其他国家正在重新审视要不要把美国当做可靠的贸易伙伴。” A measure of economic policy uncertainty developed by Mr. Davis and two co-authors hit a record high this month, even surpassing the levels during the global financial crisis in 2008 and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Research has shown that such bouts of extreme uncertainty are damaging in their own right, discouraging companies from hiring and investing. 戴维斯和两位合著者制定的一项衡量经济政策不确定性的指标本月创下历史新高,甚至超过了2008年全球金融危机和2020年新冠病毒大流行期间的水平。研究表明,这种极端不确定性本身就具有破坏性,会阻碍企业招聘和投资。 In the short run, the truce announced on Monday could provide some much-needed clarity. Under the agreement, which lasts 90 days, the United States will cut tariffs on goods from China to 30 percent from 145 percent. China will make a similar reduction in the retaliatory duties that it imposed on imports from the United States. 从短期来看,周一宣布的休战可能会提供一些急需的明确性。根据这项为期90天的协议,美国将把来自中国的商品关税从145%降至30%。中国将对从美国进口的商品征收的报复性关税进行类似缩减。 The new rates are still far above those in place before Mr. Trump took office and will almost certainly result in higher prices for consumers. But the reduction was large enough that it should allow for trade between the two countries — which had all but halted while the prohibitive 145 percent tariffs were in place — to resume to some degree. Many economists expect imports to surge in the coming weeks as companies race to restock while the lower rates remain in effect. 新税率仍远高于特朗普上任前的税率,几乎肯定会给消费者带来更高的价格。但这一降幅足够大,足以让两国之间的贸易在某种程度上恢复——在145%的禁止性关税实施期间,两国之间的贸易几乎停止。许多经济学家预计,在未来几周内,随着企业竞相在较低税率生效期间补货,进口将激增。 To investors, the agreement also served as a signal that leaders of both countries were looking for a way to step back from the full-blown trade war that had erupted over the past month. Economists had warned that the standoff could lead to “stagflation” — the combination of high inflation and slow growth — as the steep decline in commerce led both to higher prices and reduced demand for workers to drive delivery trucks, pack boxes and stock shelves. That outcome now seems less likely. 对投资者来说,该协议还发出了一个信号,表明两国领导人正在寻找一种方式,从过去一个月爆发的全面贸易战中脱身。经济学家曾警告说,这种僵局可能导致“滞涨”——高通胀和低增长的结合——因为贸易的急剧下滑导致价格上涨,也减少了对从事卡车运输、装箱和码货工作的工人的需求。现在看来,出现这种结果的可能性较小。 Stock indexes surged on Monday following the announcement and continued to rise on Tuesday. The S&P 500, which had fallen sharply when tariffs were announced, has now turned positive for the year. 消息公布后,股指周一大涨,周二继续上扬。标准普尔500指数在关税宣布时曾大幅下跌,现在已实现今年的正增长。 洛杉矶的一家户外购物中心。即使降低了对中国的关税,消费者也几乎肯定会遇到价格上涨的问题。 “What it does is it signals that there is real, tangible progress,” said Sina Golara, a management professor at Georgia State University who specializes in supply chain issues. “There seems to be strong will and a political push to getting a deal. That’s all positive.” “它的作用是发出了一个信号,表明确实有了切实的进展,”佐治亚州立大学专门研究供应链问题的管理学教授西纳·戈拉拉说。“似乎有达成协议的强烈意愿和政治推动力。这都是积极的。” But the agreement with China — like the framework deal with the Britain that was announced last week and the temporary rollback of tariffs imposed on other trading partners last month — is an executive action taken by Mr. Trump. It is not a legally binding treaty ratified by Congress. As a result, there is nothing to stop Mr. Trump from raising tariffs again at the end of the 90 days, or even before then. 但与中国达成的协议——就像上周宣布的与英国达成的框架协议,以及上个月暂时降低对其他贸易伙伴征收的关税一样——是特朗普采取的一项行政行动。它不是国会批准的具有法律约束力的条约。因此,没有什么可以阻止特朗普在90天结束时甚至之前再次提高关税。 On Monday, Mr. Trump said that if China doesn’t agree to a trade deal within the 90-day window, tariffs will go back up and be “substantially higher,” although not to 145 percent. 周一,特朗普表示,如果中国不在90天的窗口期内同意达成贸易协议,关税将重新上调,而且“大幅提高”,尽管不会达到145%。 “If you’re just looking to get your imports in from China, I do think you have at least enough near-term certainty to start shipping as much as possible,” said Alex Jacquez, a former economic adviser to former President Biden who now works at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank. “What I don’t think this does is decrease any long-term uncertainty because we still don’t know what the aim of Trump’s negotiations are with China or with anyone else.” “如果你只是想从中国进口商品,我确实认为你至少有足够的短期确定性开始尽可能多地发货,”前总统拜登的前经济顾问、现供职于进步智库基础合作的亚历克斯·雅克斯说。“我不认为这会减少任何长期的不确定性,因为我们仍然不知道特朗普与中国或其他任何人谈判的目的是什么。” The short-term nature of the deal is likely to limit the benefits, said Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. Companies will bring in products they need urgently, he said, but they will be reluctant to make bigger commitments, knowing the tariff rates could change yet again. 洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞洛卡说,这笔交易的短期性质可能会限制其效益。他说,企业将拿到它们急需的产品,但它们将不愿做出更大的承诺,因为它们知道,关税税率可能会再次改变。 Executives he has spoken to are “hopeful, but very cautious,” Mr. Seroka said. “By no means has anybody said we’re out of the woods.” 与塞洛卡交谈过的高管们都“充满希望,但非常谨慎,”他说。“但不等于有谁会觉得我们已经脱离了困境。” For Learning Resources, an educational toy company in Vernon Hills, Ill., the 145 percent tariff rate was effectively an embargo. Rick Woldenberg, the chief executive, quipped at the time that the rate might as well be “100 billion percent.” He immediately paused some shipments, stopped filling open jobs and sued the Trump administration, arguing it had overstepped its authority. 对于伊利诺伊州弗农山的教育玩具企业学习资源(Learning Resources)来说,145%的关税实际上是禁运。公司首席执行官里克·沃尔登伯格当时打趣说,不如把税率调到“百分之1000亿”。他立即暂停了一些发货,停止填补空缺职位,并起诉特朗普政府,称其越权。 With tariffs now lowered to 30 percent, Mr. Woldenberg said he would probably restart shipment of some of the goods that were stranded in China. 随着关税降至30%,沃尔登伯格说,他可能会重启滞留在中国的部分货物的运输。 “We’ll probably bring it in because who the hell knows what they’ll do next,” he said. “This is, I suppose, better than the other kinds of chaos we were going through.” “我们可能会把货物先运进来,因为谁知道他们下一步又会干什么,”他说。“我想,大概总比我们之前经历的那些混乱要好一些。” But Mr. Woldenberg isn’t lifting his hiring freeze or making the other investments that have been on hold since tariffs took effect. 但沃尔登伯格并没有解除招聘冻结,也没有进行自关税生效以来一直被搁置的其他投资。 “We’re clinging to every dollar,” he said. “We’re going to need them because I have a new tax I have to pay.” “我们紧紧攥住每一分钱,”他说。“我们需要这些钱,因为我有一项新税要交。” In surveys, many companies have said they are holding off on making hiring and investing decisions until they see where tariffs end up. A mere 90-day pause is unlikely to move them off the sidelines. 在调查中,许多公司表示,在看到关税的最终结果之前,它们将推迟招聘和投资决定。仅仅90天的暂停不太可能让他们放弃观望。 “When I’m out talking to business leaders, they don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Austan D. Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview on Monday. “They can’t make decisions counting on this or any other thing lasting in a permanent way.” “当我去和商界领袖交谈时,他们不知道会发生什么,”芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比周一接受采访时说。“他们不能指望这件事或任何其他事情能永久持续下去,从而做出决策。” Nor can the Fed itself. Officials have warned in recent months that the tariffs are likely to lead to higher prices and slower growth. But the constant changes in trade policy have made it hard for the central bank to chart a clear path forward for interest rates. Instead, policymakers are essentially on hold, waiting to see how the economy responds before making any decisions. 美联储本身也不能。近几个月来,官员们警告称,关税可能会导致价格上涨和增长放缓。但贸易政策的不断变化,使得央行很难为利率制定明确的未来路径。相反,政策制定者基本上是按兵不动,等着看经济如何反应,然后再做出任何决定。 The deal in Geneva will reinforce that caution, said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo. 富国银行经济学家萨拉·豪斯表示,日内瓦的协议将强化这种谨慎态度。 “This is a good example of why they’re in wait-and-see mode,” she said. “This is an indication of why they’re not trying to get out ahead of the impacts of these tariff policies, because they could be walked back at any moment, on any weekend.” “这是一个很好的例子,说明他们为什么处于观望状态,”她说。“这也表明了他们为何不试图赶在这些关税政策产生影响之前采取行动,因为这些政策随时可能在某个周末被收回。” Colby Smith对本文有报道贡献。 Ben Casselman是《纽约时报》首席经济记者。他从事经济报道已有近20年。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID E. SANGER2025年5月14日近几周,特朗普总统在他的多项计划中都有不同程度的退缩。 Eric Lee/The New York Times President Trump has long reveled in his reputation as a maximalist, issuing a huge demand, creating a crisis and setting off a high-pressure negotiation. 特朗普总统长期以来陶醉于自己作为最大化主义者的名声,他会先抛出一个极高的要求,制造一场危机,然后开启一场高压谈判。 But increasingly often, he ends up backing down and simply declaring a win. His opponents appear to be catching on, sharpening their tactics based on Mr. Trump’s patterns and his unapologetically transactional attitude toward diplomacy. 但越来越常见到的情况是,他最终会退缩,然后直接宣称自己赢了。他的对手似乎已经洞悉了他的套路,他们根据特朗普的行事模式及其毫无顾忌地将外交当做一场生意的态度,精心调整了自己的策略。 The dynamic has played out repeatedly in recent weeks as Mr. Trump backed off, to varying degrees, on his plans to transform Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” turn Canada into the 51st state and beat China into submission with tariffs. 这种情况在最近几周反复出现。特朗普在不同程度上放弃了将加沙变成“中东蔚蓝海岸”的计划、把加拿大变成美国第51个州的打算,以及用关税迫使中国屈服的策略。 Now, two very different tests are emerging. One is over where Mr. Trump stands, with America’s biggest allies or with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, on preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty and safety in any cease-fire deal. The other, with Iran, may determine whether he is really willing to stand aside and let Israel bomb Iran — or join in, despite the risks — if he cannot extract a better nuclear deal than what President Barack Obama got, and cut off Iran’s pathway to a bomb. 如今出现了两种截然不同的考验。其一关乎特朗普的立场,在维护乌克兰主权和安全的停火协议上,他是站在美国最大的盟友一边,还是站在俄罗斯总统普京一边。其二与伊朗有关,如果他无法达成比奥巴马总统更好的核协议,切断伊朗获得核弹的途径,他是否真的愿意撒手不管,任由以色列轰炸伊朗——或者不顾风险,参与到以色列的行动中。 Both those negotiations lack the numeric symmetries of tariff negotiations. Thousands if not millions of lives are potentially at stake. Both involve decades of grievance, dating back to the Iranian revolution and the breakup of the Soviet Union. 这两场谈判都缺乏关税谈判那种数字上的对等性。它们关乎数万乃至数百万人的生死。它们都涉及数十年的积怨,其根源可以追溯到伊朗革命和苏联解体。 And Russia and Iran appear to be honing their strategies after watching Mr. Trump in action. Emissaries from those countries are hinting to Mr. Trump’s negotiator, Steve Witkoff, that there may be some investment opportunities for Americans if the United States eases off its demands. Mr. Witkoff, like Mr. Trump, has a history in real estate. 俄罗斯和伊朗似乎在观察特朗普的行动风格后完善了自己的策略。两国使者向特朗普的谈判代表史蒂夫·维特科夫暗示,如果美国放宽要求,美国人可能会得到一些投资机会。维特科夫和特朗普一样有房地产行业的背景。 俄罗斯和伊朗的使者都在向特朗普的谈判代表史蒂夫·维特科夫暗示,如果美国放宽要求,美国人可能会得到一些投资机会。 China proved an interesting example of Mr. Trump taking a maximalist approach only to climb down later. And in that case, too, Beijing appeared to be watching and learning Mr. Trump’s patterns. 中国是一个有趣的例子,特朗普采取了最大化主义策略,但后来还是做出让步。而且北京似乎也在观察和掌握特朗普的行事模式。 When Mr. Trump placed tariffs on Chinese-made goods more than a month ago, he warned Beijing’s leaders, and those of other nations on the receiving end of his “reciprocal” tariffs, “Do not retaliate.” Defiance was useless. The best deals would come for those who showed up in Washington early, with a list of concessions. 一个多月前对中国制造的商品加征关税时,特朗普警告中国以及其他面临“对等”关税的国家:“不要报复。”反抗是没用的。那些最早带着让步清单来到华盛顿的人才能达成最好的交易。 President Xi Jinping of China ignored that advice. He matched the tariffs and matched again, until the figure on China’s imports to the United States hit an eye-watering 145 percent. For five weeks, Mr. Xi followed the road toward mutually assured economic destruction. Inflation and shortages loomed. Cargo ships turned around. 中国国家主席习近平没有理会这一建议。他以牙还牙,实施了对等关税,并且再次回应加征关税,直到对中国出口商品的关税达到了令人瞠目的145%。五周来,习近平选择了一条可能导致双方经济相互毁灭的道路。通货膨胀和物资短缺迫在眉睫。集装箱货轮掉头返航。 It took Mr. Trump roughly 40 days to back down, agreeing to an initial 30 percent tariff — still punishingly high — with no consequential Chinese concessions other than an agreement to work things out over the next 90 days. 特朗普花了大约40天时间做出让步,同意初步征收30%的关税——这仍然是极高的税率——除了同意在接下来的90天内解决问题之外,中国没有做出实质性的让步。 The climb-down was so striking that it set off a predictable market rally that has now stretched over two days, Mr. Trump’s ultimate measure of approval. 这种后退非常引人注目,引发了市场可预见的反弹,并且已经持续了两天,而市场表现是特朗普衡量成功的最终标准。 But it also clarified Washington’s goals. Ever since Mr. Trump began slapping tariffs on U.S. adversaries and allies alike, central questions have loomed: Were tariffs, in the president’s mind, a mechanism to reshape the global trading order? To force a re-industrialization of America, even to produce products it makes little sense to make in America? Or is he envisioning a new source of income intended to supplement taxes to pay for a government that for 30 years has spent far more than it takes in? 但这场关税博弈也让华盛顿的战略意图逐渐清晰。自从特朗普开始无差别地对美国对手和盟友加征关税以来,核心问题一直存在:在总统的心目中,关税是重塑全球贸易秩序的一种机制吗?是为了推动美国重新工业化,甚至生产那些毫无必要在美国生产的产品吗?或者他设想的是一种新的收入来源,用来补充税收,以支撑一个30年来支出远远超过收入的政府? At various moments, Mr. Trump has suggested all three were at play. But it now seems evident that what really excites him is using the tariffs as a cudgel, and to make his minimum 10 percent tariff on all foreign goods look like a bargain, even if it is onerous to consumers. Everything above that number is highly negotiable. 特朗普在不同场合表示过,这三个方面都在发挥作用。但现在看来很明显,真正让他兴奋的是把关税当作大棒,让他对所有外国商品征收的最低10%的关税,看起来像是一笔划算的交易,即使这对消费者来说是繁重的负担。高于这个数字的一切,都有很大的谈判空间。 Over the weekend, Mr. Trump reluctantly joined another big demand, this one against Russia. It was issued by Europe’s top leaders during a visit to Kyiv, after they called the American president and agreed on the language. It gave Russia until Monday to agree to a 30-day cease-fire. 上周末,特朗普不情愿地会同别国提出了又一项重大要求,这次是针对俄罗斯。这一要求是欧洲最高领导人访问基辅期间提出的,之后他们给美国总统打电话并就措辞达成了一致。他们要求俄罗斯在周一之前同意实施为期30天的停火。 Mr. Putin ignored the deadline, betting he would pay little price. Instead, he ordered drone attacks on Ukraine, and offered a negotiating session with Ukraine on Thursday in Istanbul. Mr. Trump leaped to endorse the idea, abandoning the condition that a cease-fire had to come first, so Ukraine was not negotiating while facing a Russian onslaught. 普京无视了最后期限,而他猜自己不会为此付出什么代价。他反而还下令对乌克兰发动无人机袭击,并提出周四在伊斯坦布尔与乌克兰谈判。特朗普迅速表示支持这一想法,甚至放弃了停火为先决条件的原有立场,全然不顾乌克兰将在俄军炮火下被迫谈判的困境。 Mr. Putin clearly senses that Mr. Trump cares little about the sanctity of Ukraine’s borders or even who is responsible for the invasion. (Soon after taking office, Mr. Trump contended that Ukraine itself was responsible, contributing to the late-February blowup with President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office.) 普京显然感觉到特朗普不太在意乌克兰领土完整的神圣性,甚至不在意是谁发动了入侵。(特朗普上任后不久就坚称乌克兰是咎由自取,这也导致了2月下旬他在椭圆形办公室与泽连斯基总统的激烈争执。) Much of the conversation in Istanbul will focus on the control of territory that Russia now occupies, and whether Ukraine has to radically reduce its armaments, and whether NATO needs to pull back both troops and arms near Russian borders. Mr. Zelensky has vowed to attend, adding to the potential for a standoff. As Stephen Sestanovich, a Russia expert and longtime diplomat who wrote a book a decade ago entitled “Maximalist,” noted after a recent trip to Ukraine, ever since the Oval Office argument “the Ukrainians have found a way to combine gratitude with inflexibility and make it work for them.” 伊斯坦布尔会谈的主要议题是俄罗斯目前占领的领土的控制权,以及乌克兰是否必须大幅削减军备,还有北约是否需要从俄罗斯边境附近撤回军队和武器。泽连斯基誓言要参加谈判,这增加了出现僵局的可能性。十年前写了一本《最大化主义者》的俄罗斯问题专家、资深外交官斯蒂芬·塞斯塔诺维奇在最近访问乌克兰后指出,自从在椭圆形办公室的争吵以来,“乌克兰人找到了一种将感激与强硬相结合的方法,并让这种方法为他们所用。” But in recent times, Mr. Putin, getting with the program, has dropped hints about joint Russian-American energy and mining operations, tempting a deal-hungry president to get something out of a Ukraine agreement, beyond his search for a Nobel Peace Prize. Mr. Witkoff sounded thrilled with that idea in an interview with Tucker Carlson. 但最近,普京顺应形势,暗示俄罗斯和美国可以开展能源和矿业合作,这对渴望达成协议的总统来说充满诱惑,除了拿下诺贝尔和平奖,他还希望能从乌克兰协议中得到一些好处。维特科夫在接受塔克·卡尔森采访时对这个想法显得很兴奋。 财政部长斯科特·贝森特给美中谈判设定了一些有限的目标。 Now the Iranians are trying a similar tactic. 如今,伊朗也在尝试类似的策略。 After several weeks of conflicting statements about whether Iran could be allowed to continue enriching uranium, which can fuel a nuclear weapon, Mr. Witkoff said last week, in an interview with Breitbart, “we believe they cannot have enrichment, they cannot have centrifuges, they cannot have anything that allows them to build a weapon.” 对于是否允许伊朗继续进行可能用于制造核武器的铀浓缩活动,几周来各方说法不一。上周,维特科夫在接受布莱巴特新闻网采访时表示:“我们认为他们不能进行铀浓缩活动,不能拥有离心机,不能拥有任何有助于他们制造核武器的东西。” The demands seemed pretty clear. 这些要求似乎相当明确。 But the Iranians contend that Mr. Witkoff took a far more gentle approach in the negotiating room last weekend, and did not rule out allowing some nuclear activity in Iran. Meanwhile the Iranians, according to several Iranian and other officials, have begun floating ideas for nuclear energy joint ventures, perhaps with the United States, perhaps with Saudi Arabia, their regional rival. The key is all sanctions would be lifted and Iran would preserve some of the capabilities that Mr. Witkoff, and in recent days Mr. Trump, has suggested must be mothballed or dismantled. 但伊朗方面声称,上周末维特科夫在谈判室里的态度要温和得多,并没有排除允许伊朗进行一些核活动的可能性。与此同时,据一些伊朗和其他国家的官员称,伊朗已经开始提出核能合资企业的想法,可能是与美国合作,也可能是与它在该地区的对手沙特阿拉伯。关键是所有制裁都将被解除,而伊朗将保留一些维特科夫以及特朗普近期表示过必须封存或拆除的核能力。 On Tuesday in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, Mr. Trump said he was offering Iran “a new path and a much better path toward a far better and more hopeful future.” Then he said: “The time is right now for them to choose." 周二在沙特首都利雅得,特朗普表示他为伊朗提供了“一条新的道路,一条通往更美好、更有希望的未来的更好的道路”。然后他说:“现在是他们做出选择的时候了。” David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府及一系列国家安全问题。他担任《纽约时报》记者超过40年,著有四本关于外交政策和国家安全挑战的书籍。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID YAFFE-BELLANY, ERIC LIPTON2025年5月14日特朗普总统的加密货币业务将利润直接输送给特朗普家族,由此产生的利益冲突引起了道德专家的警觉。 Eric Lee/The New York Times A struggling technology company that has ties to China and relies on TikTok made an unusual announcement this week. It had secured funding to buy as much as $300 million of $TRUMP, the so-called memecoin marketed by President Trump. 一家与中国有关联、依赖TikTok且陷入困境的科技公司本周发表了一项不同寻常的声明。这家公司已获得资金,用于购买高达3亿美元的$TRUMP——特朗普总统推销的所谓“米姆币”。 GD Culture Group, a publicly traded firm with a Chinese subsidiary, has only eight employees, its public filings show, and recorded zero revenue last year from an e-commerce business it operates on TikTok, the Chinese-owned video-sharing app. 公开文件显示,在中国拥有子公司的GD文化集团是一家上市公司,只有八名员工,去年在中国拥有的短视频平台TikTok上运营的一项电子商务业务的收入为零。 But on Monday, GD Culture Group became the latest business with foreign ties to seize on Mr. Trump’s crypto venture, which channels profits directly to the Trump family and has generated conflicts of interest that have alarmed ethics experts. (Memecoins like $TRUMP are a type of cryptocurrency based on an online joke or celebrity mascot and have traditionally not had any utility beyond speculation.) 但在周一,GD文化集团成为最新一家与外国存在关联的、涉足特朗普加密货币业务的企业,该业务将利润直接输送到特朗普家族,存在利益冲突,这引发了道德专家的担忧。(像$TRUMP这样的米姆币是一种基于网络笑话或名人吉祥物的加密货币,传统上除了投机之外没有任何实际用途。) In its statement, GD Culture Group, which is traded on the Nasdaq, said it would spend $300 million on a stockpile of Bitcoin and $TRUMP, using proceeds from a stock sale to an unnamed entity in the British Virgin Islands, a popular tax haven. It confirmed that investment plan in a securities filing late Tuesday. 纳斯达克上市的GD文化集团在声明中表示,该公司将花费3亿美元大举投资比特币和$TRUMP,资金来源是向英属维尔京群岛(一个受欢迎的避税天堂)的一个未具名实体出售股票的收益。该公司周二晚间在一份证券备案文件中证实了这一投资计划。 The purchase would create clear ethical conflicts, enriching Mr. Trump’s family at the same time that the president tries to reach a deal that would allow TikTok to keep operating in the United States rather than face a congressionally approved ban. 这笔交易将产生明显的道德冲突,在总统正试图达成一项协议,允许TikTok继续在美国运营,而不会面临国会批准的禁令之际,这笔交易将增加特朗普的家族财富。 The announcement also shows how investors around the world, including some that have virtually no public footprint, have latched on to the president’s crypto ventures to boost their own business prospects. 该公告还表明,包括一些背景秘而不宣的投资者在内,世界各地的投资者是如何通过绑定总统的加密企业以提升自己的商业前景的。 Just asserting a connection to Mr. Trump’s business can quickly raise a company’s profile. GD Culture Group’s struggling stock rose 12 percent on Monday, before losing those gains the next day. 只要宣称与特朗普的企业有联系,就能迅速提升公司的知名度。GD文化集团陷入困境的股票周一上涨了12%,但第二天又回吐了全部涨幅。 “Make no mistake. These foreign entities and governments obviously want to curry favor with the president,” said former Representative Charles Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican who was the chairman of the House Ethics Committee. “This is completely out of bounds and raises all sorts of ethical, legal and constitutional issues that must be addressed.” “别搞错了。这些外国实体和政府显然是想讨好总统,”曾任众议院道德委员会主席的宾夕法尼亚州共和党前众议员查尔斯·登特说。“这完全是越界的行为,引发了各种必须解决的道德、法律和宪法问题。” Investors in foreign countries have rushed to stock up on the $TRUMP coin since it hit the market in January. Some have stated explicitly that they hoped to use their purchases to influence Mr. Trump. 自1月$TRUMP上市以来,外国投资者纷纷抢购。一些人明确表示,他们希望通过购买行为来影响特朗普。 GD Culture Group was less clear about its intentions. In its statement, the company said it wanted to “enhance its balance sheet with high-performance, scalable digital assets.” GD文化集团的意图则较为隐晦。该公司在声明中表示,希望“通过高性能、可扩展的数字资产来增强其资产负债表”。 It is unclear whether the company will even follow through on the announcement, or how much of the $300 million it has received from its unidentified investor. Last month, the company disclosed that it was in danger of losing its Nasdaq listing because it had failed to meet certain financial requirements. 目前还不清楚该公司是否会落实声明内容,也不清楚它从身份不明的投资者那里获得的3亿美元资金具体有多少已经到账。上个月,该公司披露,由于未能满足某些财务要求,它有可能失去在纳斯达克上市的资格。 But any purchase by GD Culture Group would be the first known example of a China-linked firm buying Mr. Trump’s memecoin. In its financial disclosures, the company has noted that its subsidiary, Shanghai Xianzhui, might be influenced by demands from the Chinese government, though that is not unusual wording for a Chinese company. 若GD文化集团最终完成购买,将成为首家已知涉足特朗普米姆币的中国关联企业。该公司在财务披露中指出,其子公司上海仙追可能会受到中国政府要求的影响,不过对于一家中国公司来说,这种措辞并不罕见。 “The Chinese government may intervene or influence its operations at any time,” the company said in an annual report filed in March. “中国政府可能随时干预或影响其业务,”该公司在3月发布的年报中表示。 In recent weeks, the Trump family has faced an intensifying backlash in Washington over its business dealings with foreign countries. 最近几周,特朗普家族与外国的商业往来在华盛顿遭到了越来越强烈的反对。 On the Senate floor on Tuesday, Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, spent 20 minutes walking through the various sources of overseas money pouring into the Trump family business, including the memecoin, a real-estate deal involving the government of Qatar and a separate $2 billion crypto deal with a firm backed by the United Arab Emirates. 周二,康涅狄格州民主党参议员克里斯托弗·墨菲在参议院用20分钟详细梳理了流入特朗普家族企业的各种海外资金来源,包括米姆币、一项涉及卡塔尔政府的房地产交易,以及与阿拉伯联合酋长国支持的一家公司达成的价值20亿美元的加密货币交易。 “If a mayor of a small town was selling meetings at City Hall for a thousand bucks, he would be run out of town on a rail, but that’s exactly what Donald Trump is doing in the Middle East and all over the world,” Mr. Murphy said. 墨菲说:“如果一个小镇的市长以1000美元的价格在市政厅出售与自己会面的机会,他肯定会被赶出城,但这正是唐纳德·特朗普在中东和世界各地所做的事情。” Representatives for the White House, the Trump Organization and GD Culture Group did not respond to requests for comment. 白宫、特朗普集团和GD文化集团的代表没有回应置评请求。 Mr. Trump started selling the $TRUMP coin three days before his inauguration, one of several crypto ventures that he and his sons have pursued. The coin’s price briefly surged, then crashed just as quickly, costing investors billions of dollars. 特朗普在就职典礼前三天开始出售$TRUMP,这是他和他的儿子们从事的几项加密投资之一。该加密货币的价格短暂飙升,然后以同样快的速度暴跌,让投资者损失了数十亿美元。 Last month, Mr. Trump and his business partners announced that the top 220 buyers of the coin would be invited to a dinner with the president at his golf club in Virginia, sparking another round of frantic trading that further enriched the Trump family. An analysis by The New York Times and the crypto forensics firm Nansen found that many of the coin’s buyers were based overseas in countries including Mexico, Singapore and Australia. 上个月,特朗普和他的商业伙伴宣布,将邀请购买这一加密货币最多的220名买家与总统在弗吉尼亚州的高尔夫俱乐部共进晚餐,这引发了又一轮疯狂交易,让特朗普家族进一步获利。《纽约时报》和加密货币分析公司Nansen的一项分析发现,许多买家来自海外国家,包括墨西哥、新加坡和澳大利亚。 Under federal law, foreign investors are barred from donating to a political campaign or a president’s inaugural fund. But Mr. Trump’s crypto ventures have offered a new avenue for these overseas buyers to support him financially. 根据联邦法律,外国投资者被禁止向政治竞选或总统就职基金捐款。但特朗普的加密货币业务为这些海外买家提供了一条在经济上支持他的新途径。 In April, a Mexico-based shipping firm, Fr8Tech, announced that it would spend $20 million on Mr. Trump’s memecoin as a way to “advocate for fair, balanced and free trade between Mexico and the U.S.” 今年4月,总部位于墨西哥的航运公司Fr8Tech宣布,将斥资2000万美元购买特朗普的米姆币,作为“倡导墨西哥和美国之间公平、平衡和自由贸易”的一种方式。 The statement by GD Culture Group did not mention any policy objectives. Xiaojian Wang, the chief executive, said the company was embracing “industrial transformation” through cryptocurrencies and moving to “strengthen our financial foundation.” GD文化集团的声明没有提到任何政策目标。该公司首席执行官王晓健(音)表示,该公司正在通过加密货币进行“产业转型”,并且正在“加强我们的财务基础”。 It was unclear how exactly GD Culture Group had secured the funding to buy hundreds of millions of dollars of crypto. In its statement, the company did not reveal any information about the entity in the British Virgin Islands that agreed to purchase its stock. 目前尚不清楚GD文化集团是如何获得数亿美元资金用于购买加密货币的。该公司在声明中没有透露任何有关同意购买其股票的英属维尔京群岛实体的信息。 In its filing with the S.E.C. on Tuesday, GD Culture Group confirmed its plans to buy $TRUMP — but again omitted any information about the entity that is financing the purchase. 在周二提交给美国证券交易委员会的文件中,GD文化集团证实了收购$TRUMP的计划,但再次未透露任何有关为收购提供资金的实体的信息。 Historically, the British Virgin Islands has been a favorite jurisdiction for overseas investors seeking to maintain confidentiality, because it is easy to set up a shell company there. 从历史上看,英属维尔京群岛一直是寻求保密的海外投资者最喜欢的司法管辖区,因为在那里设立空壳公司轻而易举。 Matthew Goldstein对本文有报道贡献。 David Yaffe-Bellany自在旧金山报道加密货币行业。可以通过电邮与他联络:davidyb@nytimes.com. Eric Lipton是《纽约时报》调查记者,他深入报道从五角大楼开支到有毒化学品等一系列议题。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
袁莉2025年5月14日 Dongyan Xu Two Chinas inhabit the American imagination: One is a technology and manufacturing superpower poised to lead the world. The other is an economy that’s on the verge of collapse. 美国人的想象中有两个中国:一个是准备引领世界的科技和制造业超级大国,另一个是经济濒临崩溃的国家。 Each reflects a real aspect of China. 这两个都是中国真实面目的写照。 One China — let’s call it hopeful China — is defined by companies like the A.I. start-up DeepSeek, the electric vehicle giant BYD and the tech powerhouse Huawei. All are innovation leaders. 让我们把其中一个称为希望的中国,它由人工智能初创公司DeepSeek、电动汽车巨头比亚迪、强大的科技企业华为等公司代表,它们都是创新先锋。 Jensen Huang, the chief executive of the Silicon Valley chip giant Nvidia, said China was “not behind” the United States in artificial intelligence development. Quite a few pundits have declared that China would dominate the 21st century. 硅谷芯片巨头英伟达的首席执行官黄仁勋说,中国在人工智能的发展方面“并不落后于”美国。不少权威人士断言,中国将主宰21世纪。 The other China — gloomy China — tells a different story: sluggish consumer spending, rising unemployment, a chronic housing crisis and a business community bracing for the impact of the trade war. 另一个是无望的中国,它讲述的故事截然不同:消费疲软、失业率攀升、旷日持久的房地产危机,以及为贸易战的冲击做准备的商界。 President Trump, as he tries to negotiate a resolution of a trade war, must reckon with both versions of America’s arch geopolitical rival. 随着美国总统特朗普试图通过谈判来解决贸易战,他必须对美国主要地缘政治对手的两个版本都有所估量。 The stakes have never been higher to understand China. It’s not enough to fear its successes, or take solace in its economic hardships. To know America’s biggest rival requires seeing how the two Chinas are able to coexist. 了解中国比以往任何时候都更重要。对中国的成功只是害怕,或从中国的经济困境中得到安慰,都是不够的。要认清美国的最大竞争对手,就需要了解这两个中国如何共存。 “Americans have too many imagined notions about China,” said Dong Jielin, a former Silicon Valley executive who recently moved back to San Francisco after spending 14 years in China teaching and researching the country’s science and technology policies. “Some of them hope to solve American problems using Chinese methods, but that clearly won’t work. They don’t realize that China’s solutions come with a lot of pain.” “美国人对中国有太多想象,”曾在硅谷担任高管的董洁林说,她在中国从事了14年的科技政策教学和研究工作后最近搬回了旧金山。“有些人希望美国的问题用中国的解决方式,这肯定行不通。他们不知道中国的solution(解决办法)会带来很多pain(痛苦)。” 吉利汽车在宁波的汽车装配线。 Just like the United States, China is a giant country full of disparities: coastal vs. inland, north vs. south, urban vs. rural, rich vs. poor, state-owned vs. private sector, Gen X vs. Gen Z. The ruling Communist Party itself is full of contradictions. It avows socialism, but recoils from giving its citizens a strong social safety net. 与美国一样,中国是一个存在各种差异的巨大国家:沿海与内陆、北方与南方、城市与农村、贫困与富裕、国企与民企、X世代与Z世代。执政的中共本身就充满矛盾。虽然它宣称实行社会主义,却不愿为人民提供强大的社会保障。 Chinese people, too, grapple with these contradictions. 中国人民也在努力应对这些矛盾。 Despite the trade war, the Chinese tech entrepreneurs and investors I talked to over the past few weeks were more upbeat than any time in the past three years. Their hope started with DeepSeek’s breakthrough in January. Two venture capitalists told me that they planned to come out of a period of hibernation they started after Beijing’s crackdown on the tech sector in 2021. Both said they were looking to invest in Chinese A.I. applications and robotics. 尽管发生了贸易战,但过去几周里与我交谈的中国科技创业者和投资者们却比过去三年的任何时候都更乐观。他们从今年1月DeepSeek的突破上看到希望。两名风险投资家对我说,他们已打算走出中国政府2021年开始打击科技行业后的冬眠期。两人都说,他们正在考虑投资中国的人工智能应用和机器人技术。 But they are much less optimistic about the economy — the gloomy China. 但他们对整体经济——也就是无望的中国——则没有那么乐观了。 The 10 executives, investors and economists I interviewed said they believed that China’s advances in tech would not be enough to pull the country out of its economic slump. Advanced manufacturing makes up about only 6 percent of China’s output, much smaller than real estate, which contributes about 17 percent of gross domestic product even after a sharp slowdown. 我采访的10名高管、投资者和经济学家一致认为,中国在技术方面的进步不足以帮助它摆脱经济萧条。先进制造业只占中国经济产出的6%左右,远低于房地产行业对国内生产总值的贡献,即使在经历了急剧放缓之后,房地产行业仍对经济产出有约17%的贡献率。 When I asked them whether China could beat the United States in the trade war, nobody said yes. But they all agreed that China’s pain threshold was much higher. 当我问他们中国能否在贸易战中打败美国时,没人给出肯定的答案。但他们都同意,中国能忍受更多的痛苦。 It’s not hard to understand the anxiety felt by Americans frustrated with their country’s struggles to build and manufacture. China has constructed more high-speed rail lines than the rest of the world, deployed more industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers than any country except South Korea and Singapore and now leads globally in electric vehicles, solar panels, drones and several other advanced industries. 美国人对自己的国家在基建和制造业上困难重重的焦虑不难理解。中国的高铁总里程已超过了世界其他地区,每万名制造业工人配备的工业机器人数量仅次于韩国和新加坡,中国在电动汽车、太阳能电池板、无人机和其他几个先进产业目前都处于全球领先地位。 宁波的太阳能电池板。 Many of China’s most successful companies have gained resilience from the economic downturn and are better prepared for the bad days ahead. “They’ve been DOGE-ing for a long time,” said Eric Wong, the founder of the New York hedge fund Stillpoint who visits China every quarter, referring to the Trump administration’s cost-cutting effort known as the Department of Government Efficiency. “By comparison, the U.S. has been living in excess for a long time.” 中国许多最成功的企业已从经济低迷中练就了韧性,为更艰难的时刻做足了准备。“它们在很长时间里一直在DOGE-ing,”每个季度都会去中国的纽约对冲基金Stillpoint的创始人埃里克·黄(音)说,DOGE是特朗普政府削减开支的所谓“政府效率部”的英文首字母缩。“相比之下,美国多年来一直在挥霍。” But as we marvel at China’s so-called miracles, it is necessary to ask: At what cost? Not just financial, but human. 但是,当我们惊叹于中国所谓的奇迹时,有必要问:代价是什么?不仅是经济方面的代价,还有人的代价。 China’s top-down innovation model, heavily reliant on government subsidies and investment, has proved to be both inefficient and wasteful. Much like the overbuilding in the real estate sector that triggered a crisis and erased much of Chinese household wealth, excessive industrial capacity has deepened imbalances in the economy and raised questions about the model’s sustainability, particularly if broader conditions worsen. 中国自上而下的创新模式严重依赖政府补贴和投资,事实证明,这种模式效率低下且浪费严重。就像房地产行业的过度建设引发了一场危机,并抹去了中国家庭的大部分财富一样,工业产能过剩加剧了经济的不平衡,这种模式的持续性令人存疑,尤其是在大环境恶化的情况下。 The electric vehicle industry shows the force of the two Chinas. In 2018, the country had nearly 500 E.V. makers. By 2024, about 70 remained. Among the casualties was Singulato Motors, a start-up that raised $2.3 billion from investors, including local governments in three provinces. Over eight years, the company failed to deliver a single car and filed for bankruptcy in 2023. 电动汽车产业是这两个中国之间进行博弈的典型样本。2018年,中国拥有近500家电动车企。到2024年,大约还剩下70家。其中夭折的奇点汽车从投资者那里筹集了23亿美元,投资者包括三个省的地方政府。八年多的时间里,该公司连一辆车都没交付,并于2023年申请破产。 The Chinese government tolerates wasteful investment in its chosen initiatives, helping fuel overcapacity. But it is reluctant to make the kind of substantial investments in rural pensions and health insurance that would help lift consumption. 中国政府容忍重点产业的投资浪费,助长了产能过剩。但它却不愿在农村养老金和医疗保险等有助于提升消费的领域进行大量投资。 “Technological innovation alone cannot resolve China’s structural economic imbalances or cyclical deflationary pressures,” Robin Xing, the chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said in a research note. “In fact,” he wrote, “recent advances in technology may reinforce policymakers’ confidence in the current path, increasing the risk of resource and capital misallocation.” 摩根士丹利首席中国经济学家邢自强在研究报告中指出,“单靠技术创新无法解决中国的结构性经济失衡或周期性通缩压力。”他写道,“事实上,最近的技术进步可能会增强政策制定者对当前道路的信心,从而增加资源和资本错配的风险。” The Chinese leadership’s obsession with technological self-reliance and industrial capacity is not helping its biggest challenges: unemployment, weak consumption and a reliance on exports, not to mention the housing crisis. 中国领导层对技术自主和工业能力的痴迷无助于解决其面临的最大挑战:失业、消费疲软和对出口的依赖,更不用说房地产危机了。 Officially, China’s urban unemployment rate stands at 5 percent, excluding jobless migrant workers. Youth unemployment is 17 percent. The real numbers are believed to be much higher. This summer alone, China’s colleges will graduate more than 12 million new job seekers. 官方数据显示,不包括失业的农民工在内,中国城镇失业率为5%,青年失业率为17%。据信,实际数字要高得多。仅今年夏天,中国的高校毕业生就将带来1200多万新增求职者。 Mr. Trump was not wrong in saying factories are closing and people are losing their jobs in China. 特朗普说中国的工厂正在关闭,人们正在失去工作,这并没有错。 In 2020 Li Keqiang, then the premier, said the foreign trade sector, directly or indirectly, accounted for the employment of 180 million Chinese. “A downturn in foreign trade will almost certainly hit the job market hard,” he said at the onset of the pandemic. Tariffs could be much more devastating. 2020年,时任总理李克强表示,外贸部门直接或间接地带动了1.8亿中国人的就业。“产业出口下降,对就业会带来直接冲击,”他在疫情开始时表示。关税可能更具破坏性。 Beijing is playing down the effect of the trade war, but as negotiators held talks last weekend with their U.S. counterparts, its impact was obvious. In April, Chinese factories experienced the sharpest monthly slowdown in more than a year while shipments to the United States plunged 21 percent from a year earlier. 北京正在淡化贸易战的影响,但随着上周末中美谈判代表举行会谈,其冲击是显而易见的。今年4月,中国工厂经历了一年多来最严重的月度放缓,对美出口同比骤降21%。 All of the economic fallout will be shouldered by people like a man I spoke to, with the surname Chen, a former university librarian in a megacity in southern China. He asked that I not use his full name and where he lived to shield his identity from the authorities. 所有的经济后果都将由像我采访过的一位陈姓男士这样的人来承担,他曾是中国南方某大城市的一所大学的图书管理员。为了不让政府知道他的身份,他要求我不要透露他的全名和居住地。 Mr. Chen lives in the gloomy China. He stopped taking the vaunted high-speed trains because they cost five times as much as a bus. Flying is often cheaper, too. 陈先生生活在那个无望的中国。他不再乘坐被大肆吹嘘的高铁,因为高铁的价格是大巴车的五倍。连飞机票也往往更便宜。 He lost his job last year because the university, one of the top ones in the country, was facing a budget shortfall. Many state-run institutions have had to let people go because many local governments, even in the wealthiest cities, are deeply in debt. 他在去年丢了工作,因为那所全国顶尖的大学面临预算短缺。许多国有机构不得不裁员,因为许多地方政府,即使是最富裕的城市,也是债台高筑。 Because he’s in his late 30s, Mr. Chen is considered too old for most jobs. He and his wife had given up on buying a home. Now with the trade war, he expects that the economy will weaken further and that his job prospects will be dimmer. 因为陈先生快40岁了,人们认为他年纪太大,不适合从事大多数工作。他和妻子已经放弃了买房的打算。现在,随着贸易战的爆发,他预计经济将进一步走弱,他的就业前景将更加黯淡。 “I’ve become even more cautious with spending,” he said. “I weigh every penny.” “我在消费上更加保守,”他说,“变得锱铢必较。” 袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏,专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
储百亮2025年5月14日前排从左至右:智利总统博里奇、哥伦比亚总统佩特罗、中国国家主席习近平、巴西总统卢拉周二在北京出席了论坛。 Pool photo by Florence Lo China has long tapped Latin America to supply oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities, all drivers of growth for many Latin American countries. But also a source of frustration for those that hope to grow their economies and exports with more than mining and farm goods. 长久以来,中国一直从拉丁美洲进口石油、铁矿石、大豆和其他大宗商品,这为许多拉丁美洲国家提供了经济增长的动力。但对于那些希望摆脱仅通过矿业和农产品来实现经济增长和扩大出口的国家而言,这也是一个挫败感之源。 China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is trying to show that he is listening. He told a gathering of Latin American leaders and officials in Beijing on Tuesday that he wanted to expand cooperation in “emerging areas,” including clean energy, telecommunications and artificial intelligence. 中国国家主席习近平正试图展现倾听的姿态。他对周二聚集在北京的拉丁美洲国家的领导人和官员们说,他想在清洁能源、通信技术、人工智能等“新兴领域”扩大合作。 Speaking a day after China and the United States announced a provisional reduction of punitive tariffs against each other, Mr. Xi did not mention President Trump by name in his remarks to representatives from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. But Mr. Xi said China was their most reliable partner in a turbulent world, a theme that he also deployed in a recent visit to Southeast Asian countries and other diplomatic meetings. 发表这篇讲话的一天前,中美宣布暂时降低相互加征的惩罚性关税。习近平在对出席中国—拉美和加勒比国家共同体论坛的代表们发表的讲话中没提美国总统特朗普的名字。但习近平说,在一个动荡的世界里,中国是它们最可靠的伙伴,这一主题与其近期出访东南亚以及其他外交场合的发言一脉相承。 “China will increase its imports of high-quality products from Latin American and Caribbean countries and encourage its enterprises to expand investment in that region,” Mr. Xi told the audience, which included President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and Gabriel Boric, the president of Chile. Faced with “a surging tide of unilateralism and protectionism,” China stood ready to help, Mr. Xi said. “中方将进口更多拉方优质产品,鼓励中国企业扩大对拉投资,”习近平对出席论坛的人说,他们包括巴西总统卢拉和智利总统博里奇。面对“单边主义、保护主义逆流滋长”,中国随时准备提供帮助,习近平说。 Other leaders also made indirect references to the tariff threats and other pressure from the Trump administration. “We are here to reaffirm that multilateralism and dialogue, not unilateral impositions, are the way to address the challenges facing humanity,” Mr. Boric told the meeting. 其他国家的领导人也间接地提到来自特朗普政府的关税威胁和其他施压举措。“我们在此重申,多边主义和对话才是应对人类共同挑战的正确途径,而不是单边规则,”博里奇在论坛上表示。 Mr. Xi did not give much detail in his lofty speech, which — in a sign of his interest in China’s heritage — also proposed “collaborative studies” of ancient civilizations in China and Latin America. 习近平的这篇高调讲话未详述具体方案,他在讲话中还提到“深化中拉文明交流互鉴”,表现出他对中国文化遗产的兴趣。 At the same meeting, Mr. Lula said that Chinese demand and investment had been a valuable economic driver for Brazil. But he also suggested that Brazil wanted to climb the technology ladder. 卢拉在这次论坛上表示,中国的需求和投资一直是推动巴西经济增长的宝贵动力。但他也暗示巴西想在技术方面更上一层楼。 “The digital revolution cannot be allowed to create a new technology divide between nations,” Mr. Lula said. “Development of artificial intelligence should not be the privilege for a few. A just transition to a low-carbon economy also needs broad access to clean-energy technology.” “不能任由数字革命在国家之间制造新的技术鸿沟,”卢拉说。“人工智能的发展不应成为少数人的特权。向低碳经济的公正转型也需要清洁能源技术的广泛普及。” On Monday in Beijing, Mr. Lula claimed some success in attracting Chinese investors to Brazil. Chinese companies announced plans to invest about $4.7 billion there in projects including expanded automotive manufacturing and renewable energy like wind and solar power, according to Mr. Lula’s office. He also highlighted a proposed Brazil-China partnership to launch low-orbit satellites so Brazilians in remote areas can connect to the internet. The proposal would be a potential rival to Elon Musk’s Starlink in these areas. Huawei, a Chinese telecom giant, is already a big presence in Brazil. 卢拉周一在北京宣布,巴西在吸引中国投资者方面取得了一些成功。据卢拉的办公室披露,中国企业宣布了在巴西投资约47亿美元的计划,涉及扩大汽车制造业,以及风电和光伏等可再生能源生产的项目。他还强调了一项拟议中的巴中发射低轨道卫星的合作项目,让居住在偏远地区的巴西人能够接入互联网。该项目有可能成为埃隆·马斯克在这些地区的“星链”计划的潜在竞争对手。中国电信设备巨头华为已经在巴西占据重要地位。 Chinese officials have been “a bit taken aback by how assertive the Trump administration has been in Latin America,” said Ryan Berg, the director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The U.S. secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has visited at least eight Latin American and Caribbean countries since taking office, and has said the region will be a priority for him, including countering Chinese influence there. 华盛顿战略与国际研究中心美洲项目主任瑞安·伯格表示,中国官员“对特朗普政府在拉丁美洲的强势有些意外”。美国国务卿鲁比奥自上任以来已至少访问了8个拉丁美洲和加勒比国家,并表示该地区将是他的优先事项,包括对抗中国在该地区的影响。 Mr. Trump has accused China of controlling the Panama Canal. Under pressure, a Hong Kong company sold off its two port facilities on the canal, drawing criticism from Beijing. Mr. Xi did not mention the controversy — except, it seemed, in an oblique reference. 特朗普指责中国企图控制巴拿马运河。迫于压力,一家香港公司出售了其在运河两端的港口设施股权,引发了中国政府的批评。习近平虽未在讲话中直接谈到这场争议,但似乎有隐晦的提及。 China supports Latin American and Caribbean countries in “defending their sovereignty and independence and in opposing external interference,” Mr. Xi said. “In the 1960s, mass rallies took place across China to support the Panamanian people in reclaiming sovereignty over the Panama Canal.” 中国“支持拉方维护国家主权独立、反对外部干涉”,习近平说。“上世纪60年代,中国各地举行大规模群众游行,声援巴拿马人民收回运河主权。” Ana Ionova自里约热内卢、Sabrina Duque自台北对本文有报道贡献。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者,自台北报道中国和台湾问题,重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
CHARLIE SAVAGE2025年5月13日2月,停放在佛罗里达州西棕榈滩的棕榈滩国际机场一架波音747-8型飞机,此前特朗普总统参观了这架飞机。 Al Drago for The New York Times During President Trump’s first term, the idea that special interests and governments were buying meals and booking rooms at his hotels set off legal and ethical alarms about the potential for corruption. 在特朗普总统的第一个任期,特殊利益集团和政府可能在他的酒店购买餐饮和预订客房的做法曾经引发有关权力寻租的法律和道德警报。 Mr. Trump’s second term is making those concerns look trivial. 特朗普的第二任期让这些担忧显得微不足道。 The administration’s plan to accept a $400 million luxury jet from the Qatari royal family is only the latest example of an increasingly no-holds-barred atmosphere in Washington under Trump 2.0. Not only would the famously transactional chief executive be able to use the plane while in office, but he is also expected to transfer it to his presidential foundation once he leaves the White House. 特朗普政府计划从卡塔尔王室接受一架价值4亿美元的豪华飞机,这只是一个最新例证,表明特朗普2.0时代的华盛顿越来越肆无忌惮的气氛。这位以做交易著称的总统不仅在任内可以使用这架飞机,而且在离开白宫后,他还有望将这架飞机转移到自己的总统基金会。 The second Trump administration is showing striking disdain for onetime norms of propriety and for traditional legal and political guardrails around public service. It is clearly emboldened, in part because of the Supreme Court’s ruling last year that granted immunity to presidents for their official actions and because of the political reality that Mr. Trump’s hold on the Republican Party means he need not fear impeachment. 第二届特朗普政府对以往的操守准则以及围绕公共服务的传统法律政治约束表现出惊人的蔑视。它显然胆子更大了,部分原因是最高法院去年的裁决赋予了总统公务行为豁免权,还有一个政治现实是,特朗普对共和党的控制意味着他不必担心弹劾。 Mr. Trump’s inaugural committee raked in $239 million from wealthy business interests hoping to curry his favor or at least avoid his wrath, more than doubling the previous record, $107 million, set by his inaugural committee in 2017. There is no way to spend a quarter of a billion dollars on dinners and events, and the committee has not said what will happen to leftover funds. 特朗普的就职委员会从意图讨好他或至少避免激怒他的富裕商业利益集团那里敛财2.39亿美元,这比该委员会在2017年创造的1.07亿美元的纪录高出一倍多。这笔将近2.5亿美元的钱是不可能都花在晚宴和活动上的,委员会也没有说剩余的资金将如何处理。 Before returning to office, Mr. Trump also started a meme cryptocurrency, $TRUMP, which allows crypto investors around the world to enrich him. His family has already made millions on transaction fees, and its own reserve of the digital coin is worth billions on paper. 在重返白宫之前,特朗普还启动了一个米姆加密货币$Trump,让世界各地的加密货币投资者都能为他敛财。他的家族已经从交易费中赚取了数以百万计的美元,其数字货币的储备在纸面上价值数十亿美元。 This month, Mr. Trump went further by auctioning off face-to-face access to him through sales of the coin, announcing that top buyers would get a private dinner at one of his golf courses and that the largest holders would get a tour of the White House. The contest injected new interest in the coin, even though it has no intrinsic value. 本月,特朗普更进一步,通过销售数字货币拍卖与他面对面的机会。他宣布,最大的买家将在他的一个高尔夫球场获得私人晚餐,最大的持有者将获得参观白宫的机会。尽管这一数字货币没有任何内在价值,但此类营销仍成功刺激市场投机热情。 The removal of such constraints extends to law enforcement. 这种不受约束的姿态延伸至执法领域。 In April, the Trump administration disbanded a Justice Department unit dedicated to investigating cryptocurrency crimes. 今年4月,特朗普政府解散了司法部一个专门调查加密货币犯罪的部门。 Earlier, Mr. Trump had also ordered the department to suspend enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which makes it a crime for companies that operate in the United States to bribe foreign officials. 早些时候,特朗普还下令司法部暂停执行《反海外腐败法》,该法案规定,在美国经营的公司贿赂外国官员是犯罪行为。 And Attorney General Pam Bondi, herself a former highly paid lobbyist for Qatar, narrowed enforcement of a law requiring lobbyists for foreign governments to register such relationships and disclose what they are paid. 司法部长帕姆·邦迪本人曾是卡塔尔的一名高薪游说者,她缩小了一项法律的执行范围,该法律要求外国政府的游说者申报这种关系,并披露他们的报酬。 The administration has not made public its legal analysis concerning the agreement with Qatar. 美国政府至今未公布其关于卡塔尔达成协议的法律分析。 A person familiar with the matter said that Ms. Bondi had personally signed a Justice Department memo blessing the plan as lawful, although the person added that it had been drafted and cleared by lawyers in the department’s Office of Legal Counsel. 一位知情人士说,邦迪亲自签署了一份司法部备忘录,承认该计划是合法的,不过这位人士补充说,备忘录是由司法部法律顾问办公室的律师起草核定的。 To be sure, aspects of the cultural shift predate Mr. Trump. In 2016, the Supreme Court unanimously made it harder to prosecute public officials for corruption by narrowing what counts as an “official act” for federal bribery laws, vacating the graft conviction of a former Virginia governor. 诚然,文化转变的某些方面发生在特朗普之前。2016年,最高法院一致通过缩小联邦贿赂法中“官方行为”的界定标准,加大了起诉腐败公职人员的难度,并由此撤销了对前弗吉尼亚州州长的贪污罪定罪。 And Washington has always been a place where money and politics can mix in unseemly ways, with no party having a monopoly on people eager to exploit public office for private gain. 华盛顿向来是一个金钱和政治丑陋交织的地方,渴望利用公职谋取私利的人并非哪个政党所独有。 Last year, for example, a Democratic senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez, resigned from office after being convicted of taking bribes. 例如,去年新泽西州的民主党参议员罗伯特·梅内德斯因受贿罪名成立而辞职。 And Hunter Biden gained a lucrative seat on the board of a Ukrainian gas company while his father, Joseph R. Biden Jr., was the vice president. Trading on his father’s status in that way was widely seen as unbecoming even if the facts of the arrangement were overshadowed by a conspiracy theory, peddled by the right, that it also involved bribes by a Russian oligarch. 在父亲小约瑟夫·拜登担任副总统期间,亨特·拜登在一家乌克兰天然气公司的董事会获得了一个利润丰厚的席位。尽管极右翼散布的阴谋论声称此事还涉及一名俄罗斯寡头行贿,使得事情真相被掩盖,但以这种方式利用父亲的政治地位谋利的行为被普遍认为有失体统。 But the current moment, coming as Mr. Trump’s crypto gambit merges into his intended acquisition of a Qatari plane, is particularly remarkable for the openness with which the president, his immediate family and entities in his orbit are unabashedly leveraging his position to accrue personal benefits or to otherwise advance his personal agenda separate from governmental policymaking. 但是,特朗普有关加密货币计划与他有意接收卡塔尔飞机一事交织在一起时,这样的场面显得尤其引人注目,总统、他的直系亲属和他身边的实体毫不掩饰地利用自己的地位来获取个人利益,或者以其他方式推进他在政府决策之外的个人议程。 Mr. Trump has pressured several major law firms to donate tens of millions of dollars in free legal services toward his favored causes, using the threat of official actions, like prohibitions on them and their clients from government business, as a cudgel. (Other law firms have fought his directives in court, with growing success.) 特朗普向几家大型律师事务所施压,要求它们为他青睐的事业捐赠价值数以千万计美元的免费法律服务,他威胁要采取官方行动,比如禁止它们及其客户承接政府业务。(也有一些律师事务所在法庭上反对他的指令,并取得了越来越大的成功。) He has also found other ways to extract money from tech companies. Amazon reportedly paid $40 million for the rights to stream a future documentary about the first lady, Melania Trump. 科技公司也难逃盘剥。据报道,亚马逊支付了4000万美元,购买了一部关于第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普的纪录片的版权。 Meta agreed to pay $25 million to the nonprofit that will build and run Mr. Trump’s future presidential museum, settling a lawsuit over Facebook’s suspension of his account after his lies about the 2020 election culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Meta同意向负责建造和运营特朗普未来总统博物馆的非营利组织支付2500万美元,以此和解因其散布2020年大选谎言导致2021年1月6日国会山骚乱后,Facebook冻结其账号引发的诉讼。 Corporate owners of news media organizations are also settling lawsuits with Mr. Trump that many media lawyers had considered winnable. ABC News agreed to pay $15 million to the Trump museum foundation. 多家新闻媒体机构的所有者也在与特朗普解决诉讼,尽管许多媒体律师曾认为这些诉讼是可以打赢的。ABC新闻同意向特朗普博物馆基金会支付1500万美元。 Paramount, which needs Trump administration approval for a sale to a Hollywood studio, is considering a similar settlement with Mr. Trump in a lawsuit he brought against one of its subsidiaries, CBS News, over how “60 Minutes” edited an interview with Vice President Kamala Harris last year. 派拉蒙出售给好莱坞电影公司需要特朗普政府的批准,该公司正在考虑与特朗普达成类似的和解协议。特朗普曾就《60分钟》节目去年对副总统贺锦丽的采访进行剪辑一事起诉其子公司CBS新闻。 Mr. Trump’s plan for the Qatari plane appears to be to use it as Air Force One until the end of his presidency, while Boeing finishes building a new generation of presidential aircraft. The Pentagon would then transfer it to his museum foundation. (He called it his “library,” but presidential libraries are research facilities run by the National Archives. They often adjoin museums run by private foundations that are dedicated to former presidents.) 特朗普的计划似乎是在波音新一代总统专机建成前将卡塔尔赠送的飞机作为“空军一号”使用至任期结束,之后由五角大楼移交其博物馆基金会(他称其为他的“图书馆”,但总统图书馆是由国家档案馆管理的研究设施。它们经常毗邻私人基金会经营的纪念前总统的博物馆)。 Mr. Trump compared that plan to one by Ronald Reagan’s museum in Simi Valley, Calif., where a presidential Boeing 707 is now a star attraction. But that plane was at the end of its life span — it had been used as Air Force One from 1973 to 2001 before being decommissioned. It also remains the property of the Air Force and is merely on permanent loan. 特朗普将这一计划与罗纳德·里根位于加利福尼亚州西米谷的博物馆的计划进行了比较,后者的一架总统用波音707飞机现在是那里的一个明星景点。但里根的那架飞机当时已经到了使用寿命的尽头——在退役前,它曾在1973年至2001年期间被用作“空军一号”。它仍然是空军的财产,只是永久租借出去。 The Qatari plane will still be nearly new in 2029, raising the question of whether Mr. Trump’s museum foundation, which is run by his allies, would allow Mr. Trump to keep using the plane after he leaves office. On Monday, Mr. Trump denied that this was his intent. 而到2029年,卡塔尔的这架飞机仍然几乎是全新的,这引发了一个问题:特朗普的博物馆基金会(由他的盟友运营)是否会允许特朗普在卸任后继续使用这架飞机。周一,特朗普否认有此意图。 Even if so, it was unclear why it would benefit the U.S. government to decommission an expensive and nearly new aircraft. Parking it at a future Trump museum would, however, contribute to glorifying Mr. Trump. 即使是这样,也不清楚为什么让一架昂贵的、几乎全新的飞机退役符合美国政府的利益。而把它停放在未来的特朗普博物馆将有助于美化特朗普。 On Monday, Mr. Trump also signaled that he viewed Qatar’s offer of a plane as something of a quid pro quo, emphasizing that the United States had provided security to the Gulf country and “we will continue to.” 周一,特朗普还表示,他将卡塔尔提供一架飞机的提议视为某种交换条件,强调美国已经为这个海湾国家提供了安全,并且“我们将继续这样做”。 He added that he considered the gift “a very nice gesture” from the Qataris. Only a “stupid person,” he said, would turn down a “free very expensive airplane.” 他还说,他认为卡塔尔人赠送的礼物是“一个非常好的姿态”。他说,只有“愚蠢的人”才会拒绝一架“免费但非常昂贵的飞机”。 Charlie Savage为时报撰写有关国家安全和法律政策的文章。 翻译:晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
PETER EAVIS, DANIELLE KAYE2025年5月13日 For weeks, Jay Foreman, a toy company executive, froze all shipments from China, leaving Care Bears and Tonka trucks piled up at Chinese factories, to avoid paying President Trump’s crippling 145 percent tariff. 数周以来,为了避免支付特朗普总统145%的巨额关税,玩具公司的高管杰伊·福尔曼暂停了所有中国发货,导致爱心熊和Tonka卡车等玩具堆积在中国的工厂里。 But as soon as his phone lit up at 4 a.m. on Monday alerting him that Mr. Trump was lowering tariffs on Chinese imports for 90 days, Mr. Foreman, the chief executive of Basic Fun, which is based in Florida, jumped out of bed and called his suppliers, instructing them to start shipping merchandise immediately. 但周一凌晨4点,当手机的提示音响起,福尔曼得知特朗普将对中国进口商品下调关税90天后,这位佛罗里达玩具公司Basic Fun的首席执行官立刻从床上跳起,致电供应商,让他们立即发货。 “We’re starting to move everything,” Mr. Foreman said. “We have to call trucking companies in China to schedule pickups at the factories. And we have to book space on these container ships now.” “我们要把所有货物都发出来,”福尔曼表示,“必须立即联系中国物流公司安排工厂提货,而且我们现在就要预订集装箱舱位。” If other executives follow Mr. Foreman’s lead, a torrent of goods could soon pour into the United States. While logistics experts say global shipping lines and American ports appear capable of handling high volumes over the next three months, they caution that whiplash tariff policies are piling stress onto the companies that transport goods around the world. 如果其他高管也在这么做的话,很快就会有大量货物涌入美国。虽然物流专家表示,全球航运公司和美国港口似乎能够在未来三个月内处理大量货物,但他们警告说,反复无常的关税政策正在给全球货运企业带来巨大压力。 “This keeps supply chain partners in limbo about what’s next, and leads to ongoing disruption,” said Rico Luman, senior economist for transport, logistics and automotive at ING Research. 荷兰国际集团负责运输、物流和汽车领域的高级经济学家里科·卢曼说:“这种情况让供应链上的合作伙伴对未来充满不确定性,并导致持续的混乱。” After talks this weekend in Geneva, the Trump administration lowered tariffs on many Chinese imports to 30 percent from 145 percent. China cut its tariffs on American goods to 10 percent from 125 percent. If a deal is not reach in 90 days, the tariffs could go back up, though Mr. Trump said on Monday that they would not rise to 145 percent. Some importers may hold off on ordering from China, hoping for even lower tariffs later. 上周末在日内瓦举行谈判后,特朗普政府将许多中国进口商品的关税从145%降至30%。中国则将美国商品的关税从125%降至10%。如果90天内未能达成协议,关税可能会回调,尽管特朗普周一表示,关税不会提高到145%。一些进口商可能会推迟从中国采购商品,指望日后关税能进一步降低。 Importers weighing whether to rush goods in over the next 90 days must also determine if suppliers in China can fill those orders and get them onto vessels by the end of July. Voyages from Chinese ports to the West Coast of the United States can take two to three weeks. 那些在接下来90天内考虑是否加急进口货物的进口商,还必须确定中国的供应商能否完成订单,并在7月底前将货物装船。从中国港口到美国西海岸的航程可能需要两到三周时间。 Because the timing is tight, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, does not expect a huge surge of imports in the coming weeks. “Ninety days is not a long runway for people in our business,” he said. 由于时间紧迫,洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞洛卡预计,未来几周进口量不会出现大幅激增。他说:“对我们这个行业的人来说,90天的时间并不算长。” Mr. Seroka added that big retailers might have sufficient products at least for a while because they had brought in large volumes of goods before Mr. Trump’s tariffs took effect in April. 塞洛卡还说,大型零售商的库存可能至少在一段时间内是充足的,因为在特朗普4月实施关税措施之前,他们已经进口了大量商品。 The 30 percent tariff is still high by historical standards, so importers may decide to pay it only for goods they really need. 按照历史标准,30%的关税仍然很高,所以进口商可能只会为那些真正急需的商品支付这笔关税。 But others may rush in shipments across the board. Mr. Foreman of Basic Fun said that while the 30 percent tax would pose a challenge to a medium-size company like his, it was manageable. He said he could discuss splitting the higher cost with his suppliers and the retailers that sold his products. At this tariff level, consumers can expect a roughly 15 percent increase in the price on some toys, he added. 但也有一些进口商可能会全面加急运输货物。Basic Fun公司的福尔曼表示,30%的关税对他这样的中型企业来说是个挑战,但尚在可控范围内。他说,他可以和供应商以及销售其产品的零售商商量分担增加的成本。他还表示,在这样的关税水平下,一些玩具的价格预计会上涨约15%。 The tariffs are one of many shocks to supply chains in recent years. 近年来,关税政策不过是冲击全球供应链的诸多变数之一。 Spending during the coronavirus pandemic led to a deluge in imports that overwhelmed ports and shipping companies. And freight costs surged. Separately, low rainfall reduced the amount of water available to the Panama Canal, allowing fewer vessels to pass through. Then, in 2023, the Houthi militia in Yemen started attacking ships in the Red Sea, forcing most shipping lines to take a long detour around the southern tip of Africa. A dockworkers’ strike last year at ports on the East Coast of the United States caused more disruption. 新冠疫情期间的消费导致进口量激增,让港口和航运公司应接不暇,货运成本也大幅上涨。另外,降雨量不足导致巴拿马运河的水量欠丰,通过运河的船只减少。2023年,也门的胡塞武装对经过红海的船只发动袭击,迫使大多数航运公司不得不选择更长的航线,绕经非洲南端。去年美国东海岸港口的码头工人罢工也给供应链再添混乱。 Overall, supply chains functioned quite well after the upheavals of the pandemic. 总体而言,在经历了疫情带来的动荡后,供应链的运转情况还算良好。 Using the huge profits they earned during the pandemic, shipping lines bought scores of new vessels. As a result, they had the spare capacity to handle surges in volume and big disruptions like the detour around Africa. 航运公司利用疫情期间赚取的巨额利润,购置了大量新船。因此,他们有额外的运力来应对货运量的激增以及像绕经非洲这样的重大干扰因素。 The impact of Mr. Trump’s tariffs has been easy to spot in trade data. In the last five weeks, bookings to ship containers from China to the United States were 45 percent below the level in the same period last year, according to data from Vizion, a logistics technology company, and Dun & Bradstreet. 特朗普关税政策对贸易的影响在数据中一目了然。物流科技公司Vizion与邓白氏数据显示,过去五周中国至美国的集装箱订舱量同比骤降45%。 The Port of Los Angeles received 31 percent fewer containers last week than during the same week in 2024, while the number of vessels visiting the port was down 20 percent, Mr. Seroka said. 塞洛卡表示,洛杉矶港上周接收的集装箱数量比2024年同期减少了31%,停靠该港口的船只数量也下降了20%。 Now, shipping lines may have to reorganize their networks again, straining capacity. As a result, shipping rates could rise as much as 20 percent in the short term, said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, a shipping market analytics company. 现在,航运公司可能被迫再次调整航线网络,从而导致运力吃紧。航运分析机构Xeneta的首席分析师彼得·桑德指出,短期内海运价格或因此飙升20%。 Lazaro Gamio对本文有报道贡献。 Peter Eavis报道全球货物运输业务新闻。 Danielle Kaye是时报商业记者,也是2024大卫·卡尔项目的成员,这是一个针对职业生涯早期记者的项目。 翻译:杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
ANA SWANSON, ALAN RAPPEPORT2025年5月13日对中国商品征收关税最终证明对美国企业来说过于痛苦,特朗普总统无法承受。 Doug Mills/The New York Times President Trump’s decision to impose, and then walk back, triple-digit tariffs on Chinese products over the past month demonstrated the power and global reach of U.S. trade policy. But it was also another illustration of the limitations of Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach. 特朗普总统在过去一个月里决定对中国产品征收三位数的关税然后又收回,这个过程显示了美国贸易政策的力量和全球影响力。同时也再次说明了特朗普咄咄逼人的方式有其局限。 The tariffs on Chinese goods, which the United States ratcheted up to a minimum of 145 percent in early April, brought much trade between the countries to a standstill. They caused companies to reroute business globally, importing less from China and more from other countries like Vietnam and Mexico. They forced Chinese factories to shutter, and brought some American importers to the verge of bankruptcy. 4月初,美国对中国商品征收的关税提高到至少145%,这使两国之间的许多贸易陷入停顿。关税导致企业在全球范围内调整业务,减少从中国进口,增加从越南和墨西哥等其他国家进口。关税迫使中国工厂关闭,并使一些美国进口商濒临破产。 The tariffs ultimately proved too painful to American businesses for Mr. Trump to sustain. Within weeks, Trump officials were saying that the tariffs the president had chosen to impose on one of America’s largest trading partners were unsustainable, and that they were angling to reduce them. 事实证明,关税最终给美国企业带来的痛苦让特朗普难以承受。几周之内,特朗普的官员就表示,总统选择对美国最大的贸易伙伴之一征收的关税是不可持续的,他们正在努力降低这些关税。 Trade talks between the world’s largest economies in Geneva this weekend concluded with an agreement to reduce stiff levies on each other’s products by more than many analysts had anticipated. Chinese imports will face a minimum tax of 30 percent, down from 145 percent. China will lower its import duty on American goods to 10 percent from 125 percent. The two countries also agreed to hold talks to stabilize the relationship. 两个世界最大经济体之间的贸易谈判上周末在日内瓦结束,双方达成协议,减少对彼此产品征收的高额关税,幅度超出许多分析师的预期。对中国进口商品的最低税率将从145%降至30%。中国将把对美国商品的进口关税从125%降至10%。两国还同意举行会谈以稳定两国关系。 It remains to be seen what agreements can be reached in future negotiations. But the talks this weekend, and the tariff chaos of the past month, did not appear to generate any other immediate concessions from the Chinese other than a commitment to keep talking. That has called into question whether the trade disruptions of the past month — which led many American businesses to cancel orders for Chinese imports, freeze expansion plans and warn of higher prices — were worth it. 在今后的谈判中能达成什么协议还有待观察。但周末的谈判,以及过去一个月的关税混乱,似乎没有让中国立即做出任何其他让步,除了承诺继续谈判。这让人怀疑,过去一个月内,导致许多美国企业取消中国进口订单、冻结扩张计划、警告价格上涨的贸易中断是否值得? “The Geneva agreement represents an almost complete U.S. retreat that vindicates Xi’s decision to forcefully retaliate,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referring to Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader. “日内瓦协议堪称美国的一场全面撤退,证明了习强力报复的决定是正确的,”美国战略与国际研究中心的中国问题专家甘思德(Scott Kennedy)说,这里的“习”指的是中国领导人习近平。 Although Mr. Trump and his advisers contend that the United States holds the strongest cards in trade negotiations, the president’s acquiescence revealed some of the limitations of his hand. 尽管特朗普和他的顾问们认为美国在贸易谈判中握着最强的牌,但总统对这一结果的接受暴露了他手上的牌存在一些局限性。 Through his so-called reciprocal tariffs and maximalist levies on China, the “Art of the Deal” president is employing a strategy that involves manufacturing trade crises in hopes of extracting quick economic concessions. But when confronting an economic power with similar might and perhaps more willingness to endure pain, Mr. Trump opted to stand down, declaring China’s agreement to join him at the negotiating table a win. 通过对中国征收所谓的对等关税和最大限度的关税,这位标榜“交易的艺术”的总统采用了一种制造贸易危机的策略,希望借此迅速获得经济让步。但在面对一个实力相当、或许更愿意忍受痛苦的经济大国时,特朗普选择了退让,宣布中国同意与他一起坐在谈判桌前是一场胜利。 On the U.S. side, officials essentially said they had determined that they did not want — or intend — to go down the path that the president’s tariffs had set the United States on, of fully decoupling its economy from China. 在美国方面,官员们基本上是在表示,他们已经确定不希望——或不打算——走上总统的关税给美国设定的道路,也就是让美国经济与中国完全脱钩。 “We concluded that we have a shared interest,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a news conference in Geneva. “The consensus from both delegations is that neither side wanted a decoupling.” 财政部长贝森特在日内瓦的新闻发布会上表示:“我们得出结论,我们有共同的利益。双方代表团的共识是,双方都不希望脱钩。” That language was a stark change from Mr. Bessent’s earlier proclamations that the trade war would be much worse for China given its reliance on exports to the United States. 这一措辞与贝森特早些时候的声明形成了鲜明的对比。他曾说鉴于中国对美国出口的依赖,贸易战对中国的影响将严重得多。 “They have the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world,” Mr. Bessent said on the Fox Business Network last month. “And I can tell you that this escalation is a loser for them.” “他们的经济是现代世界历史上最不平衡的,”贝森特上个月在福克斯商业新闻上说。“我可以告诉你,这种升级对他们来说是不利的。” The tariffs proved painful for China, but they were also disruptive for the U.S. economy. American companies had started to warn of coming pain for consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability of products. 事实证明,关税对中国是痛苦的,但对美国经济也是破坏性的。美国公司已经开始警告消费者,价格上涨和产品供应减少将给消费者带来痛苦。 U.S. manufacturers were particularly concerned about China’s export restrictions on vital minerals and magnets. And while shipments from China to the United States plunged 21 percent in April from a year earlier, its exports to Southeast Asian countries surged 21 percent, suggesting it was finding some other channels to continue feeding its export machine. 美国制造商尤其担心中国对重要矿物和磁铁的出口限制。虽然中国对美国的出口在4月份同比下降了21%,但对东南亚国家的出口却飙升了21%,这表明中国正在寻找其他渠道来继续为其出口机器提供动力。 The decision to temporarily lower tariffs on China provides a welcome reprieve for businesses, but it will also do little to ease longer-run uncertainty that is weighing on U.S. firms. The two governments now have until mid-August to make progress toward a trade deal. 暂时降低对中国关税的决定让企业得到了一个它们所乐见的喘息机会,但仍然无助于缓解长期以来困扰美国企业的不确定性。两国政府现在必须在8月中旬之前就贸易协议取得进展。 On Monday morning, Mr. Trump said that if the countries did not reach an agreement in that time, tariffs on Chinese products would rise again to be “substantially higher,” though not to 145 percent. 周一上午,特朗普表示,如果两国在这段时间内不能达成协议,对中国产品的关税将再次“大幅提高”,尽管不会提高到145%。 “At 145, you’re really decoupling because nobody’s going to buy,” he added. 他还说:“到了145,你就真的脱钩了,因为没有人会买。” Retailers and other importers expressed relief that more trade would again be able to flow between the countries, but they were crossing their fingers that the reprieve would last longer than 90 days. 零售商和其他进口商表示,两国之间将再次有更多的贸易往来,这让他们松了一口气,但他们希望暂缓实施的时间能多于90天。 上海附近的一个港口。关税导致中美之间的许多贸易陷入停滞。 Matthew Shay, the chief executive of the National Retail Federation, which represents large and small retailers, called the temporary pause “a critical first step to provide some short-term relief for retailers and other businesses that are in the midst of ordering merchandise for the winter holiday season.” 代表大大小小的零售商的全美零售联合会首席执行官马修·谢伊称,这一暂停是“为正在为冬季假期订购商品的零售商和其他企业提供一些短期缓解的关键第一步”。 Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said on Monday that the 30 percent tariff that remained on China was still substantial, and that the enthusiasm of American consumers and the companies that relied on their shopping habits had been damaged by the threat of tariffs. Ninety days is also a relatively brief time frame for companies to try to restart stopped shipments from China, he said, given how long it can take to book space on ocean liners and move products by sea. 洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞洛卡周一表示,对中国征收的30%关税仍然很高,关税威胁损害了美国消费者和依赖他们购物习惯的公司的热情。他说,考虑到预定远洋班轮舱位和海运货物需要很长时间,90天对于公司来讲也是一个相对较短的时间,很难重新启动来自中国的被中断的货运。 “This still is kind of uncharted territory, so we’ll see how people respond,” Mr. Seroka said. “But I don’t think based on consumer sentiment, consumer confidence, people are willing to jump in right away and say: ‘OK, this is really great. Let’s get going.’” “这仍然是一个未知的领域,所以我们要看看人们的反应,”塞洛卡说。“但从消费者的情绪和信心来看,我不认为人们愿意马上投入进去,说:‘好吧,这真的很棒。让我们开始吧。’” Trade experts warned that 90 days was also a very brief window to make substantial progress on the long list of trade spats between the United States and China, including Beijing’s ballooning trade surplus. 贸易专家警告,要就美中之间的一长串贸易争端取得实质性进展,包括北京不断扩大的贸易顺差,90天也是一个非常短暂的窗口期。 Wendy Cutler, the vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said three months was “an extremely short amount of time to address the range of contentious trade matters that remain between the U.S. and China, including dealing with excess manufacturing capacity, excessive subsidization of Chinese firms and transshipment efforts by Chinese companies.” 亚洲协会政策研究所副所长温迪·卡特勒表示,三个月的时间“对于解决美中之间存在的一系列有争议的贸易问题来说,是非常短的时间,包括处理制造业产能过剩、对中国企业的过度补贴以及中国企业的转运操作的努力”。 “Similar negotiations typically take well over one year,” she added. “类似的谈判通常需要一年多的时间,”她补充说。 Mr. Trump has said talks would be focused in part on “opening up” China to American businesses. Officials said they had agreed to set up a regular cadence of talks with China, and suggested that some of those could center on Chinese purchases of U.S. products that would help to balance trade. 特朗普曾表示,会谈的部分重点将是中国向美国企业“开放”。官员们说,他们已经同意与中国建立定期的对话,并暗示其中一些可能集中在中国购买美国产品的问题上,这将有助于平衡贸易。 It is not clear what might differentiate these efforts from past negotiations with China. Trump officials have criticized the kind of recurring, low-level dialogues that past U.S. administrations held with the Chinese as essentially a waste of time. 目前尚不清楚这些努力与过去同中国的谈判有何不同。特朗普的官员批评过去美国政府与中国进行的那种经常性的低级别对话基本上是浪费时间。 Chinese officials also agreed to significant purchases in a 2020 trade deal signed with Mr. Trump that were meant to help balance trade between the countries, but they ultimately did not fulfill them. 中国官员还在与特朗普签署的2020年贸易协议中同意大量采购,旨在帮助平衡两国之间的贸易,但他们最终没有履行那些协议。 Still, the Trump administration now appears intent on reviving that deal. In an interview on CNBC on Monday, Mr. Bessent said the 2020 deal could serve as a “starting point” for future talks and blamed the Biden administration for failing to enforce the agreement. 尽管如此,特朗普政府现在似乎有意恢复该协议。贝森特周一在接受CNBC采访时表示,2020年的协议可以作为未来谈判的“起点”,并指责拜登政府未能执行该协议。 During his confirmation hearing, Mr. Bessent said he intended to push China to honor its commitments to purchase more American farm products. While the Trump administration has said broadly that it wants China to lower its “nontariff” trade barriers and open up its market to American firms, the latest trade clash could result in the revival of Mr. Trump’s old trade deal. 在他的确认听证会上,贝森特说他打算推动中国履行其购买更多美国农产品的承诺。尽管特朗普政府已经笼统地表示,希望中国降低“非关税”贸易壁垒,向美国公司开放市场,但最新的贸易冲突可能会导致特朗普的旧贸易协议重新生效。 “Everyone thought in advance that the most important thing is to get Chinese adherence to the 2020 Phase 1 agreement that for many issues provides a foundation for going forward,” said Michael Pillsbury, who was a top China adviser to Mr. Trump in his first term. “每个人首先都认为,最重要的是让中国遵守2020年的第一阶段协议,在许多问题上,那个协议为下一步提供了基础,”特朗普第一任期的高级中国顾问白邦瑞(Michael Pillsbury)说。 Other analysts said the Trump administration would most likely continue to push China to stem the flow of fentanyl precursors to the United States and try to make progress on other trade issues, like China’s vast subsidization and dominance of certain industries. 其他分析人士表示,特朗普政府最有可能做的是继续推动中国阻止芬太尼前体流入美国,并试图在其他贸易问题上取得进展,比如中国对某些行业的巨额补贴和主导地位。 “The two governments have given themselves a window to get something done on fentanyl and purchases,” said Myron Brilliant, a senior counselor at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group who advises clients on China. “But what else will China agree to remains a big question going forward, given our longstanding persistent concerns over their trade policies.” “两国政府给了自己一个在芬太尼和采购问题上有所作为的窗口,”DGA-Albright Stonebridge集团的高级顾问薄迈伦(Myron Brilliant)说。“但考虑到我们长期以来对中国贸易政策的持续担忧,中国还会同意什么,仍然是一个大问题。” Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻,常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。 Alan Rappeport是时报驻华盛顿的经济政策记者。 他负责报道财政部并撰写有关税收、贸易和财政事务的文章。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
储百亮2025年5月13日中国领导人习近平曾在去年11月与巴西总统卢拉见面。 Adriano Machado/Reuters President Trump wants Latin American countries to shift closer into Washington’s orbit, raising echoes of the Monroe Doctrine, when the United States claimed the Western Hemisphere as its domain. 美国总统特朗普想把拉丁美洲国家更紧密地拉入华盛顿的轨道,这让人想到“门罗主义”时代,美国那时曾把西半球宣称为自己的势力范围。 This week, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is hosting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and other leading officials from Latin America and the Caribbean in Beijing to underscore that China intends to keep a firm foothold in that region. Many Latin American governments also want to keep Beijing onside — chiefly as an economic partner, but for some also as a counterweight to U.S. power, experts said. 中国国家主席习近平本周在北京接待了巴西总统卢拉以及其他来自拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的领导人,此举彰显中国有意在该地区保持稳固地位。专家们指出,许多拉美国家政府也想得到中国的支持,主要是为了将中国作为一个经济伙伴,但对某些国家来说,也是为了平衡美国的影响力。 “What the people of Latin America and the Caribbean seek are independence and self-determination, not the so-called ‘new Monroe Doctrine’,” China’s assistant foreign minister, Miao Deyu, told reporters in Beijing on Sunday, according to the People’s Daily, nodding to President James Monroe’s declaration of 1823, warning European powers not to interfere in the Americas. 据《人民日报》报道,中国外交部部长助理苗得雨周日在北京对记者表示,“拉美和加勒比地区人民追求的是独立和自决,而不是所谓的‘新门罗主义’。”他指的是美国总统詹姆斯·门罗警告欧洲列强不要干涉美洲事务的1823年宣言。 The U.S. secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has said that the Trump administration will be “putting our region, the Americas, first,” and Mr. Rubio’s first overseas trip as secretary was to Panama, Guatemala and other countries in the region. But Mr. Trump’s sweeping tariffs and threats to take over the Panama Canal have unsettled leaders in Latin America, especially in countries already wary of Washington. 美国国务卿鲁比奥已表示,特朗普政府将“把我们的区域,也就是美洲放在首位”。鲁比奥担任国务卿后第一次出访就去了巴拿马、危地马拉,以及该地区的其他国家。但是,特朗普的全面关税和接管巴拿马运河的威胁,已令拉美各国,尤其是那些本来就对华盛顿心存戒备的国家的领导人感到不安。 Even if Mr. Trump is not singled out by name in official statements from Mr. Xi’s meetings with Mr. Lula, and possibly other Latin American officials, the implication will be clear. 就算习近平在与卢拉,以及可能还包括其他拉丁美洲官员的会谈后发表的官方声明中没有点名特朗普,其意义也是显而易见的。 “Lula sees China as a partner in rebalancing global power, not just a trade partner but a geopolitical counterweight to U.S. hegemony,” said Matias Spektor, a professor of politics and international relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian university. “Lula’s strategy is clear: diversify Brazil’s alliances, reduce dependency on Washington, and assert Brazil as a mover and shaker in an increasingly multipolar world.” “卢拉将中国视为重新平衡全球力量的合作伙伴,中国不只是一个贸易伙伴,而是一个制衡美国霸权的地缘政治力量,”巴西热图利奥·巴尔加斯基金会大学政治与国际关系教授马蒂亚斯·斯佩克托说。“卢拉的战略很清楚:将巴西的盟友多元化,减少对华盛顿的依赖,以及确立巴西在日益多极化的世界中的重要地位。” Still, behind closed doors, China’s talks with Mr. Lula and other Latin American and Caribbean leaders are unlikely to be just about mutual admiration. Mr. Lula is the most prominent of the leaders assembling in Beijing for a meeting on Tuesday between Chinese officials and ministers from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, or CELAC, a group that does not include the United States or Canada. 尽管如此,中国与卢拉以及其他拉美和加勒比地区领导人的闭门会谈不太可能只是停留在相互赞赏的层面。中国官员们周二将在北京与出席中国—拉美和加勒比国家共同体论坛(简称CELAC)的部长们举行会晤,卢拉是出席这次论坛的领导人中最引人注目的一位。CELAC成员国中不包括美国和加拿大。 Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, a leftist former rebel, will also attend, Chinese media reported. But it was unclear who else was attending, and such meetings with China are usually attended by foreign ministers and other government officials. 据中国媒体报道,曾是反政府左翼人士、现任哥伦比亚总统的古斯塔沃·佩特罗也将出席这次论坛。但目前不清楚还有哪些人将出席论坛,出席中国这种论坛的通常是外交部长和外国政府的其他官员。 巴西南里奥格兰德州的农场工人在收割大豆。中国可能提出购买更多巴西大豆。 Over the past two decades, China became a prodigious purchaser of minerals and other resources from Brazil, Peru, Chile and other Latin American customers. Chinese products including cars and appliances have filled markets in the region, and Chinese investments have funded bridges, dams and ports. Brazil and other big commodities exporters are, in part, hoping to repeat what happened in Mr. Trump’s first term, when China purchased more soybeans, iron ore and other products from Latin America in the face of U.S. tariffs. 在过去20年里,中国已成为巴西、秘鲁、智利,以及其他拉美国家的矿产和其他资源购买量惊人的客户。包括汽车和家电在内的中国产品已充斥了拉美地区的市场,中国投资更是遍布该地区的桥梁、水坝和港口建设等项目。巴西和其他主要大宗商品出口国希望在一定程度上重复特朗普上次担任总统时发生的事情,当时由于美国对中国加征关税,中国增加了从拉丁美洲购买大豆、铁矿石和其他产品的规模。 Last year, trade in goods between China and Latin America reached nearly $519 billion, about double the value of a decade ago, according to Chinese customs statistics 根据中国海关的统计数据,中国与拉丁美洲的商品贸易额去年几乎达到了5190亿美元,约为10年前的两倍。 Mr. Lula has, for all his friendliness to Beijing, increased tariffs on iron, steel and fiber optic cable, products that mostly come from China. Countries across Latin America are “hugely concerned” that Chinese exporters shut out of the U.S. market will divert cheap goods there, swamping local manufacturers, said Ryan Berg, the director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 尽管卢拉对北京态度友好,但他已经提高了对进口钢铁和光纤电缆的关税,这些产品主要来自中国。拉丁美洲国家“高度担忧”中国出口商被美国市场拒之门外后,将把廉价商品转移到它们的国家,冲击当地的制造业,华盛顿战略与国际研究中心美洲项目主任瑞安·伯格说道。 “These are countries that have a history of protectionism already and are interested in protecting local jobs and local industries,” Mr. Berg said in an interview. “Even though many countries like Brazil have good relationships with China, they have nevertheless moved almost in parallel with the United States to protect certain industries out of fear that they could become dumping grounds for, say, Chinese steel and aluminum.” “这些国家本就具有保护主义的传统,而且对保护本土就业和产业感兴趣,”伯格在接受采访时说。“即便如巴西等对华友好国家,在保护某些产业上也采取了几乎与美国同步的行动,因为它们担心自己可能成为中国钢铁和铝等产品的倾销地。” Mexico, the second-biggest Latin American economy after Brazil, has so far taken a more cautious approach to courting China, reflecting its much larger trade ties with the United States, said Enrique Dussel Peters, a professor of economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. 墨西哥国立自治大学的经济学教授恩里克·杜塞尔·彼得斯指出,作为仅次于巴西的拉美第二大经济体,墨西哥在讨好中国上采取的做法迄今为止更为谨慎,这与墨美存在更为密切的贸易关系有关。 Indeed, Mexico’s diplomatic caution belies a trade relationship in which China is making huge inroads. Fueled largely by a surge in Chinese cars on Mexico’s roads, Mexico now accounts for about 2.4 percent of China’s total exports. That places Mexico ahead of Brazil, which has a larger population and absorbs only 1.7 percent of China’s exports, as China’s most important export market in Latin America. 的确,墨西哥外交上的谨慎与中国在推动双边贸易关系上正在取得的巨大进展形成了鲜明反差。墨西哥已成为中国出口总额约2.4%的目的地,这在很大程度上是受到了墨西哥道路上中国汽车数量激增的推动。墨西哥已成为中国在拉丁美洲最重要的出口市场,其吸收的中国出口额超过了人口更多的巴西,巴西仅吸收中国1.7%的出口。 中国的汽车正越来越多地出现在墨西哥和其他拉丁美洲国家的道路上,比亚迪是这些汽车的制造商之一。 “Mexican elites and the government are torn in this new triangular relationship” with the United States and China, said Professor Dussel Peters, the author of “Latin America, China, and Great Power Competition.” “This, however, will not be sufficient for Mexico, considering China’s massive presence in Mexico.” “墨西哥的精英和政府在(与美国和中国的)这种新三角关系中左右为难,”《拉丁美洲、中国与大国竞争》一书的作者杜塞尔·彼得斯教授说。“但考虑到中国在墨西哥的巨大存在,这种态度对墨西哥来说远远不够。” Mr. Xi has sounded optimistic that he can keep Mr. Lula and many other major Latin American leaders onside, partly through plain persistence, and partly through continued orders of iron ore, soybeans and other commodities. Mr. Lula has also voiced hopes that China can help Brazil make gains in new technologies, including space and green energy. 习近平对能赢得卢拉和其他许多拉美国家主要领导人的支持表示乐观,这既源自持之以恒的外交努力,也得益于中国继续从巴西购买铁矿石、大豆和其他大宗商品。卢拉也表示希望中国能帮助巴西在新技术领取得进展,包括航天科技和绿色能源。 When Mr. Xi traveled to Brazil for a G20 leaders’ summit in November, he added on a state visit there. This year he may do the same when he is expected to visit Rio de Janeiro for a summit in July of the BRICS group of developing countries that was founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China. Mr. Biden’s only visit to Brazil as president — for the G20 summit — came only after he had lost the presidential election. 习近平去年11月前往巴西出席20国集团领导人峰会时,还对该国进行了国事访问。预计他今年7月前往里约热内卢参加金砖国家峰会时将再次对巴西进行国事访问,金砖国家峰会是由巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国共同创立。拜登总统任内唯一一次到访巴西也是为了参加20国集团峰会,但那是在他输掉美国总统大选之后。 “The fact that we are much closer, but we have had high-level visits with less frequency than Xi is a barrier to regional prioritization and a bad sign from a strategic perspective.” Mr. Berg said. “I think a lot of that is going to change with Rubio,” he said, noting that Mr. Rubio is a fluent Spanish speaker familiar with the region. “尽管我们与拉美国家距离更近,但我们的高层出访频率不如习近平,这对区域事务优先级来说是一个障碍,从战略角度来看,也是一个不好的信号,”伯格说。“我认为鲁比奥上任后,这种情况将发生很大的变化。”他指出,鲁比奥说一口流利的西班牙语,对该地区非常熟悉。 Nearer term, China may focus on more orders of soybeans and other goods from Brazil. “There is anxiety about China crowding out Brazilian manufacturers, but the broader reality is clear,” said Professor Spektor, the Brazilian academic. “China’s demand underpins Brazil’s economic stability.” 从近期来看,中国也许会把更多的注意力放在购买巴西的大豆和其他商品上。“有一种焦虑是中国会把巴西的制造商挤出市场,但更广泛的现实很明显,”巴西学者斯佩克托说。“中国的需求构成了巴西经济稳定的基础。” Simon Romero自墨西哥城对本文有报道贡献。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者,自台北报道中国和台湾问题,重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
MUJIB MASHAL2025年5月12日周六,在印控克什米尔的查谟,一幢房屋遭巴基斯坦炮击受损。 Atul Loke for The New York Times India and Pakistan have seemingly pulled back from the brink again. But so much was new about the nuclear-armed enemies’ chaotic four-day clash, and so many of the underlying accelerants remain volatile, that there’s little to suggest that the truce represents any return to old patterns of restraint. 印度和巴基斯坦似乎再一次悬崖勒马。但是,这两个拥核的敌对国家之间为期四天的混乱冲突中出现了许多新情况,而且许多潜在的导火索仍然不稳定,几乎没有迹象表明休战代表着恢复以往的克制。 A new generation of military technology fueled a dizzying aerial escalation. Waves of airstrikes and antiaircraft volleys with modern weapons set the stage. Soon they were joined by weaponized drones en masse for the first time both along the two countries’ extensive boundaries and deep into their territory — hundreds of them in the sky, probing each nation’s defenses and striking without risk to any pilot. 新一代军事技术推动了令人眼花缭乱的空战升级。在现代武器助推下,一波又一波空中打击和防空火力你来我往。很快,在两国广阔的边境线乃至领土纵深处,武器化的无人机首次大规模加入战斗——数百架无人机在空中探测两国的防御系统,在不需要飞行员承担风险的情况下实施打击。 Then the missiles and drones were streaking past the border areas and deep into India’s and Pakistan’s territories, directly hitting air and defense bases, prompting dire threats and the highest level of military alert. 随后,导弹和无人机飞掠边境地区,深入印度和巴基斯坦领土,直接袭击空军和防御基地,令双方发出严峻的警告,进入最高级的军事戒备。 Only then did international diplomacy — a crucial factor in past pullbacks between India and Pakistan — seem to engage in earnest, at what felt like the last minute before catastrophe. In a new global chapter defined by perilous conflicts, distracted leaders and a retreating sense of international responsibility to keep peace, the safety net had never seemed thinner. 直到灾难来临前的最后一刻,国际外交——这是印度和巴基斯坦过去关系缓和的一个关键因素——似乎才开始认真参与。在这个以冲突一触即发、领导人自顾不暇、维护和平的国际责任意识渐渐消退为标志的全球新时代,安全保障显得前所未有地脆弱。 “Going back historically, many of the India-Pakistan conflicts have been stopped because of external intervention,” said Srinath Raghavan, a military historian and strategic analyst. 军事历史学家和战略分析师斯里纳特·拉加万说:“回顾历史,许多印巴冲突都是由于外部干预而停止的。” 周六,查谟,被击中的车辆。 Mr. Raghavan observed that neither country has a significant military industrial base, and the need to rely on weapons sales from abroad means outside pressure can have an effect. But the positions of both sides appeared more extreme this time, and India in particular seemed to want to see if it could achieve an outcome different from previous conflicts. 拉加万指出,这两个国家都没有重要的军事工业基础,需要依赖国外的武器销售,这意味着外部压力可能会产生影响。但这一次,双方的立场似乎更加极端,尤其是印度似乎想看看,是否能取得不同于以往冲突的结果。 “I think there is a stronger sort of determination, it seems, on the part of the Indian government to sort of make sure that the Pakistanis do not feel that they can just get away or get even,” he said. “Which definitely is part of the escalatory thing. Both sides seem to feel that they cannot let this end with the other side feeling that they have somehow got the upper hand.” “我认为,印度政府似乎有一种更强的决心,要确保巴基斯坦人不会觉得他们可以侥幸逃脱或进行报复,”他说。“这绝对是事态升级的一部分。双方似乎都觉得,不能在对方觉得是在某种程度上占上风的情况下结束这场冲突的。” 周六,印度防空系统在查谟参战,天空中闪烁着耀眼的光芒。 The political realities in India and Pakistan — each gripped by an entrenched religious nationalism — remain unchanged after the fighting. And that creates perhaps the most powerful push toward the kind of confrontation that could get out of hand again. 印度和巴基斯坦的政治现实——两国都受到根深蒂固的宗教民族主义的影响——在冲突之后没有改变。这或许是导致对抗再次失控的主要推力。 Pakistan is dominated by a military establishment that has stifled civilian institutions and is run by a hard-line general who is a product of decades of efforts to Islamize the armed forces. And the triumphalism of Hindu nationalism, which is reshaping India’s secular democracy as an overtly Hindu state, has driven an uncompromising approach to Pakistan. 巴基斯坦由军人阶层主导,文官体制受到扼制,其领导人是一位强硬派将军,也是数十年来武装部队伊斯兰化造就的人物。而印度教民族主义的必胜信念正在重塑印度的世俗民主,使其很大程度上成为一个印度教国家,促使印度对巴基斯坦采取不妥协的态度。 On Sunday, there was still no indication that Pakistan or India might repair their diplomatic relations, which had been frosty even before the military escalation, or ease visa restrictions on each other’s citizens. And India did not seem to be backing away from its declaration that it would no longer comply with a river treaty between the two countries — a critical factor for Pakistan, which said that any effort to block water flows would be seen as an act of war. 截至周日仍看不到双方在军事升级前就已冷淡的外交关系有恢复的迹象,或对另一国公民的签证限制会得到放宽。印度似乎也没有放弃它将不再遵守两国间河流条约的声明——这对巴基斯坦来说是一个关键因素,因为巴基斯坦表示,任何截流的行动都将被视为战争行为。 上周三,巴基斯坦拉合尔附近的一座政府大楼。上周,印巴冲突的每个夜晚都充斥着暴力和升级。 The spark for the latest fighting was a terrorist attack on the Indian side of Kashmir that killed 26 civilians on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers. Pakistan denied any role. 最近一次冲突的导火索是4月22日在克什米尔印度一侧发生的恐怖袭击,26名平民在袭击中死亡。印度指责袭击者得到巴基斯坦的支持。巴基斯坦否认参与其中。 The crisis ended a six-year lull in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Indian government had taken a two-pronged approach to Pakistan: trying to isolate its neighbor with minimum contact and to bolster security at home, particularly through heavily militarizing the Indian side of Kashmir. 这场危机结束了印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的政府六年来对巴基斯坦采取的双管齐下策略。在此期间,印度政府试图孤立这个邻国,尽量减少接触,并加强国内安全,特别是通过对印控克什米尔进行大规模军事化。 Establishing a pattern of escalatory military action in response to terrorist attacks in 2016 and 2019, India had boxed itself into a position of maximal response. After last month’s attack, the political pressure to deliver a powerful military response was immediate. 2016年和2019年的恐怖袭击促使印度建立了一种不断升级的军事行动模式,导致自己只能做出最大化的回应。上个月的袭击发生后,要求作出强有力军事反应的政治压力立即显现。 But the choices for India’s military were not easy. It publicly fumbled the last direct clash with Pakistan, in 2019, when a transport helicopter went down and when Pakistani forces shot down a Soviet-era Indian fighter plane and captured its pilot. 但印度军方面临困难的选择。在2019年与巴基斯坦的最后一次直接冲突中,印度在众目睽睽之下连连失误,一架运输直升机坠毁,一架苏联时代的印度战斗机被巴基斯坦击落,飞行员被俘。 周六,巴基斯坦海得拉巴,宣布停火后的庆祝活动。 Mr. Modi’s effort to modernize his military since then, pouring in billions of dollars, was hampered by supply constraints caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. India was also stressed by a four-year skirmish on its Himalayan border with China, where tens of thousands of troops remained on war footing until a few months ago. 从那以后,莫迪投入了数十亿美元进行军队现代化,但因俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争造成的供应限制而受阻。在中印喜马拉雅边境地区持续了四年的小规模冲突也给印度带来了压力。直到几个月前,印度在那里仍有数万军队处于战备状态。 When it came time to use force against Pakistan this past week, India wanted to put that lost prestige and those past difficulties behind it. It also sought to show a new, more muscular approach on the world stage, able to wield not just its rising economic and diplomatic power, but military might as well. 上周对巴基斯坦动武时,印度想一雪前耻,把过去遇到的困难抛诸脑后。它还试图在世界舞台上展示一种新的、更强硬的方式,不仅能够运用其不断增长的经济和外交实力,还能运用其军事实力。 Western diplomats, former officials and analysts who have studied the dynamics between India and Pakistan said that India came out of this latest conflict looking assertive and aggressive, and perhaps has established some new level of deterrence with Pakistan. 研究印度和巴基斯坦关系的西方外交官、前官员和分析人士说,印度在最近的冲突中显得自信和咄咄逼人,也许已经对巴基斯坦建立了某种新的威慑水平。 But the way the fight played out did not suggest improvement at the operational or strategic level, they said. 但他们表示,这场战斗的结果并不意味着在行动或战略层面上有所改善。 In its opening round of airstrikes, on Wednesday, India struck targets deeper inside the enemy territory than it had in decades, and by all accounts had hit close enough to facilities associated with terrorist groups that it could claim victory. 在周三的第一轮空袭中,印度打击的目标比几十年来更深入敌方领土,而且据各方称,打击的目标距离与恐怖组织有关的设施已经足够近,因此印度可以宣称取得了胜利。 周四,印控克什米尔区的一支印度陆军车队。 Each day that followed was filled with language from both India and Pakistan suggesting that they had achieved what they wanted and were ready for restraint. But each night was filled with violence and escalation. More traditional artillery volleys across the border kept intensifying, bringing the heaviest loss of life. And the drone and airstrikes grew increasingly bold, until some of each country’s most sensitive military and strategic sites were being targeted. 接下来的每一天,印度和巴基斯坦都在用大量言论暗示他们已经达到了自己的目的,并准备转向克制的姿态。但每个晚上都充满了暴力和升级。越过边境的常规火炮攻击不断加强,造成了极为严重的人员伤亡。无人机和空袭变得越来越大胆,直到两国一些最敏感的军事和战略地点成为攻击目标。 What finally seemed to trigger the intense diplomatic pressure from the United States, with clear help on the ground from the Saudis and other Persian Gulf states, was not just that the targets were getting closer to sensitive sites — but also just what the next step in a rapid escalation ladder for two alarmed nuclear powers could mean. 在沙特阿拉伯和其他波斯湾国家的明确帮助下,最终引发美国强烈外交压力的似乎不仅仅是目标离敏感地点越来越近,还有对于两个警戒的核大国而言,事态发展迅速升级的情况下,下一步可能意味着什么。 Shortly before a cease-fire was announced late on Saturday, Indian officials were already signaling that any new terror attack against India’s interests would be met with similar levels of force. 在周六晚些时候宣布停火前不久,印度官员已经表示,任何针对印度利益的新恐怖袭击都将受到同样程度的打击。 “We have left India’s future history to ask what politico-strategic advantages, if any, were gained,” said Gen. Ved Prakash Malik, a former chief of the Indian Army. “我们把这个问题留给印度未来的历史去评判,看看我们究竟获得了哪些政治战略优势,如果有的话,”前印度陆军参谋长韦德·普拉卡什·马利克上将说。 Hari Kumar对本文有报道贡献。 Mujib Mashal是时报南亚分社社长,负责领导印度及其周边地区的报道,包括孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和不丹。 翻译:晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, ALAN RAPPEPORT, ANA SWANSON2025年5月12日周日,美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特(左)和美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔在日内瓦与中国方面结束会谈后合影。 Valentin Flauraud/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images The United States and China said Monday they reached an agreement to temporarily reduce the punishing tariffs they have imposed on each other in an attempt to defuse the trade war threatening the world’s two largest economies. 周一,美国和中国表示已达成协议,暂时降低双方互相加征的高额关税,以缓解威胁世界两大经济体的贸易战。 In a joint statement, the countries said they would suspend their respective tariffs for 90 days while they negotiate. Under the agreement, the United States would reduce the tariff on Chinese imports to 30 percent from its current 145 percent, while China would lower its import duty on American goods to 10 percent from 125 percent. 双方在一份联合声明中表示,将在接下来的90天内暂停各自的关税,以便展开谈判。根据协议,美国将把对中国产品的关税从当前的145%下调至30%,中国则会将对美国产品的进口关税从125%降至10%。 “We concluded that we have a shared interest,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at a news conference in Geneva where U.S. and Chinese officials met over the weekend. “The consensus from both delegations is that neither side wanted a decoupling,” he said. “我们认为双方有共同的利益,”美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在日内瓦举行的新闻发布会上表示。本周末,中美官员在当地进行了会谈。他说:“两国代表团的共识是,双方都不希望脱钩。” The agreement breaks an impasse that had brought trade between China and the United States to a halt. Many American businesses had suspended orders, holding out hope that the two countries could strike a deal to bring down the tariff rateswhile raising the spectre of price increa 协议打破了此前令中美贸易几近停滞的僵局。许多美国企业暂停了订单,寄希望于两国能够达成协议,以降低关税水平。 Chinese factories also experienced a sharp decline in orders for export to the United States, heaping additional pressure on a sluggish economy. 与此同时,中国工厂出口美国的订单也大幅减少,令本就疲软的中国经济承受了更大压力。 Global markets jumped on the announcement. The benchmark index in Hong Kong surged 3 percent, about the same amount as S&P 500 stock futures. 消息公布后,全球市场大幅上涨。香港基准指数上涨了3%,与标普500股指期货的涨幅大致相同。 Mr. Bessent and Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative, for the Trump administration, said the two countries had substantive discussions on U.S. demands that Beijing crack down on the trafficking of the chemical ingredients used to make fentanyl. Mr. Bessent said the Chinese “understood the magnitude” of the fentanyl crisis in the United States. 贝森特和特朗普政府的美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔表示,双方就美国要求中国打击芬太尼制造原料的非法贸易问题进行了实质性讨论。贝森特说,中国方面“理解芬太尼危机在美国的严重性”。 Mr. Trump initially added a 20 percent tariff to Chinese exports, accusing the country of not doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl to the United States. That punitive tariff remains in place. 特朗普此前曾指责中国未能采取足够措施阻止芬太尼流入美国,因此对中国出口产品加征了20%的惩罚性关税。这项关税目前仍未取消。 Mr. Greer said the negotiations were underscored by “mutual understanding and mutual respect,” but noted that China was the only country to retaliate against the United States after President Trump imposed so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries last month. 格里尔表示,谈判过程中体现了“相互理解与尊重”,但他也指出,在特朗普总统上个月对几十个国家征收所谓“对等关税”后,中国是唯一一个进行了报复的国家。 Christopher Buckley自台湾台北、Nick Cumming-Bruce自日内瓦对本文有报道贡献。 Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻首尔亚洲商业记者,报道区域经济、公司和地缘政治新闻。 Alan Rappeport是时报驻华盛顿的经济政策记者。 他负责报道财政部并撰写有关税收、贸易和财政事务的文章。 Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻,常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID PIERSON2025年5月12日越南是中国的南部邻国,拥有大量愿意从事繁重工厂工作的年轻人。 Linh Pham for The New York Times Xi Jinping has been preparing for this moment for years. 习近平为这一刻已经准备多时。 In April 2020, long before President Trump launched a trade war that would shake the global economy, China’s top leader held a meeting with senior Communist Party officials and laid out his vision for turning the tables on the United States in a confrontation. 2020年4月,远在特朗普总统发动一场将震动全球经济的贸易战之前,这位中国最高领导人召集党内高级干部举行了一次会议,阐述了他通过一场对抗来扭转对美态势的想法。 Tensions between his government and the first Trump administration had been simmering over an earlier round of tariffs and technology restrictions. Things got worse after the emergence of Covid, which ground global trade to a halt and exposed how much the United States, and the rest of the world, needed China for everything from surgical masks to pain medicines. 由于之前的一轮关税和技术限制,习近平的政府与特朗普第一届政府之间的紧张关系已经不断加剧。新冠疫情出现后,情况变得更糟。疫情使全球贸易陷入停顿,也暴露出美国乃至世界其他国家从外科口罩到止痛药等各个方面对中国的依赖。 Faced with Washington’s concerns about the trade imbalance, China could have opened its economy to more foreign companies, as it had pledged to do decades ago. It could have bought more American airplanes, crude oil and soybeans, as its officials had promised Mr. Trump during trade talks. It could have stopped subsidizing factories and state-owned companies that made steel and solar panels so cheaply that many American manufacturers went out of business. 面对华盛顿对贸易不平衡的担忧,中国本可以像几十年前所承诺的那样,向更多外国公司开放其经济。它本可以像其官员在贸易谈判中向特朗普承诺的那样,购买更多美国的飞机、原油和大豆。它本可以停止补贴那些生产钢铁和太阳能电池板的工厂和国有企业,这些企业的产品价格低廉,导致许多美国制造商倒闭。 Instead, Mr. Xi chose an aggressive course of action. 然而,习近平选择了一条强硬路线。 Chinese leaders must “tighten international production chains’ dependence on our country, forming a powerful capacity to counter and deter foreign parties from artificially disrupting supplies” to China, Mr. Xi said in his speech to the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission in 2020. 2020年在中央财经委员会会议上讲话时,他表示中国领导人必须“拉紧国际产业链对我国的依存关系,形成对外方人为断供的强有力反制和威慑能力”。 Put simply: China should dominate supplies of things the world needs, to make its adversaries think twice about using tariffs or trying to cut China off. 简而言之,中国应该主导世界所需物资的供应,让对手在使用关税或试图切断与中国的经济联系有所顾忌。 去年,宁波舟山港码头的工人,这里是世界上最繁忙的港口之一。 Mr. Xi has ramped up exports and deepened China’s position as the world’s leading base for manufacturing, in part by directing the state-controlled commercial banking system to lend an extra $2 trillion to industrial borrowers over the past four years, according to data from China’s central bank. He has also introduced new weapons of economic warfare to the country’s arsenal: export controls, antimonopoly laws and blacklists for hitting back at American companies. 习近平推动了出口的增长,并巩固了中国作为全球首屈一指的制造业基地的地位,这在一定程度上是因为他指示国有商业银行系统在过去四年里增加向工业借款人的贷款,从中国央行的数据看,增幅达到了约14万亿元人民币。他还为本国增加了一些新的经济战手段:出口管制、反垄断法以及打击美国公司的黑名单。 So when the current Trump administration slapped huge tariffs on Chinese goods, China was able to go on the offensive. Besides retaliating with its own taxes, it imposed export restrictions on a wide range of critical minerals and magnets, the global supply of which China had cornered. Such minerals are essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles. 这样一来,当本届特朗普政府对中国商品征收巨额关税时,中国就可以采取攻势了。除了以加征关税进行报复外,中国还对一系列关键矿物和磁体实施了出口限制,中国在这些产品的全球供应中占据了主导地位。这些矿物对于组装从汽车、无人机到机器人和导弹等各种产品都至关重要。 In the United States, the looming threat of empty store shelves and higher consumer prices is putting pressure on the Trump administration. The prices of some critical minerals have tripled since China unveiled its curbs, according to Argus Media, a London commodities research firm. 在美国,货架空空和消费者物价上涨的紧迫威胁给特朗普政府带来了压力。据伦敦大宗商品研究公司阿格斯媒体称,自中国公布限制措施以来,一些关键矿产的价格已经涨了两倍。 上个月,新泽西州泰特伯勒的一家沃尔玛门店。 “It’s about flipping the leverage so that the world is reliant on China, and China is reliant on no one. It is a reversal of what Xi has been so irritated about, which is that China was so dependent on the West,” said Kirsten Asdal, a former intelligence adviser at the U.S. Department of Defense who now heads a China-focused consultancy firm, Asdal Advisory. 美国国防部前情报顾问、现负责专注于中国的咨询公司阿斯达尔咨询的柯尔斯顿·阿斯达尔表示:“这是为了反转力量的天平,让世界依赖中国,而中国不依赖任何国家。这是要扭转习近平一直以来不满的局面,即中国曾如此依赖西方。” China still relies on the West for many advanced technologies like high-end semiconductors and aircraft engines. But its willingness to weaponize the supply chain may be one of the starkest examples of how Mr. Xi is redefining China’s relationship with the world and challenging the supremacy of the United States like no Chinese leader before him. 在许多先进技术方面,如高端半导体和航空发动机等,中国仍然依赖西方。但将供应链作为武器的意愿可能是习近平重新定义中国与世界的关系、以前所未有的方式挑战美国霸权的最鲜明例证之一。 Making the World Choose Sides 让世界选边站 Even though they are now starting talks that American officials say are aimed at de-escalating tensions, the two nations seem set on a no-holds-barred competition, particularly over crucial technologies that will shape the future, like artificial intelligence. 尽管美中两国现在已经开始对话——美国官员称该对话旨在缓和紧张局势——两国似乎仍在进行一场毫无保留的竞争,特别是在人工智能等塑造未来的关键技术领域。 去年,中国宁波的一条电动车生产线。 Their rivalry may start cleaving the world into competing spheres of influence. With the United States pushing other countries to restrict trade with China, and Beijing warning that it will punish nations that do so, the pressure to choose sides is mounting. 它们之间的竞争可能会开始将世界分裂成相互竞争的势力范围。美国推动其他国家限制与中国的贸易,而北京警告称将惩罚那些这么做的国家,选边站的压力与日俱增。 “China will use any and all tools at its disposal to cause pain and impose costs on the U.S. and any country that aligns with America,” said Evan Medeiros, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University who was an Asia adviser to President Barack Obama. 乔治敦大学亚洲研究教授、曾担任奥巴马总统亚洲事务顾问的麦艾文(Evan Medeiros)表示:“中国将动用一切可用的手段,给美国以及任何与美国结盟的国家造成痛苦,让它们付出代价。” “The entire world,” Mr. Medeiros continued, “is about to learn the answer to a very important question: how reliant are we on trade with China and how much is it worth to us?” 麦艾文还说,“整个世界即将得到一个非常重要问题的答案:我们对与中国的贸易依赖程度有多高,这种贸易对我们来说价值几何?” Already, the Trump administration has shown that it cannot completely sever trade ties with Beijing. It exempted Chinese smartphones, semiconductors and other electronics from some of its tariffs. Mr. Trump also walked back tariffs on carmakers. China, too, has quietly indicated that it might exclude some semiconductors, lifesaving drugs and other health care products from its 125 percent tariffs on American goods. 特朗普政府已经表明它无法完全切断与北京的贸易关系。特朗普政府豁免了中国智能手机、半导体和其他电子产品的部分关税。特朗普还取消了对汽车制造商的关税。中国也悄悄表示可能会将一些半导体、关乎生死的药物和其他医疗产品排除在对美国商品征收的125%关税范围之外。 中国南昌的一家半导体工厂。 Still, the barrage of tariffs strikes at the heart of China’s growth engine. Exports have been one of the only bright spots in an economy badly weakened by a property crisis and sagging consumer confidence. If the trade war drags on, it could result in millions of lost jobs in China, analysts estimate. 尽管如此,一连串的关税打击了中国经济增长引擎的核心。房地产危机和消费者信心下降严重削弱了中国经济,出口一直是其中为数不多的亮点之一。分析人士估计,如果贸易战持续下去,中国可能会失去数百万个工作岗位。 ‘Never Kneel Down!’ “不跪!” Mr. Xi has said for years that the United States is bent on thwarting China’s rise, and the trade war appears to have validated his warnings. 多年来习近平一直表示,美国一心想要阻挠中国的崛起,而这场贸易战似乎证实了他的警告。 He seems more inclined than ever to flex China’s muscles, analysts say, viewing the trade fight as a test of his authority as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. And his strategy reflects his perception that China is no longer weaker than the United States. 分析人士称,他似乎比以往任何时候都更乐于展示中国的实力,对他来说,这场贸易战考验的是他作为自毛泽东以来最有权力的中国领导人的权威。他的战略反映出他的一种认知,即中国不再比美国弱。 When he came to power in 2012, Mr. Xi pledged to pursue “the great renewal of the Chinese nation.” That ambition is at the core of the myth created around Mr. Xi: that he is a transformative figure restoring China’s glory, reversing a century of humiliation by foreign powers. 2012年上台时,习近平承诺追求“中华民族伟大复兴”。这一雄心是围绕习近平所塑造的理念的核心:他是一位变革性人物,正在恢复中国的荣耀,扭转一个世纪以来外国列强带来的屈辱。 To accomplish his goals, Mr. Xi changed the rules to let himself stay in power indefinitely. He has made national security an all-of-society priority. He poured money into strategic industries, like semiconductors, that he thinks will help China better compete with the United States. 为实现目标,习近平修改了规则使自己能无限期掌权。他将国家安全列为全社会的首要任务。他向半导体等战略产业投入资金,认为这些产业将有助于中国更好地与美国竞争。 2017年,习近平与特朗普总统一同游览北京故宫。 China has expanded its dominance in lithium-ion batteries used to power electric vehicles, cutting-edge robots for manufacturing, solar panels and wind turbines. Experts say China is also catching up with the United States in artificial intelligence, considered the battlefront of the next industrial revolution. 中国扩大了其在用于电动汽车的锂离子电池、先进的制造机器人、太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机等领域的主导地位。专家表示,在被视为下一次工业革命前沿的人工智能领域,中国也在追赶美国。 Mr. Xi also tightened his grip over China’s vast propaganda apparatus, which has ramped up in recent weeks to rally the public for a protracted “struggle.” The Foreign Ministry posted a video about the trade conflict on social media titled “Never Kneel Down!” 习近平还加强了对中国庞大宣传机构的控制,最近几周,宣传机构加紧动员民众参与一场持久的“斗争”。外交部在社交媒体上发布了一段关于贸易冲突的视频,标题为《不跪!》 “The trade war is the ultimate validation that Western hostile forces are trying to contain, suppress and encircle China,” Ms. Asdal said. “Xi is saying, ‘We have to be man enough and strong enough to fight back.’” “这场贸易战最终证明,西方敌对势力试图遏制、打压和包围中国,”阿斯达尔说,“习近平的意思是,‘我们必须有足够的勇气和力量进行反击。’” 2012年,时任副主席的习近平访问加州南盖特的一间学校。他在当年晚些时候成为中国最高领导人。 Even if Mr. Xi ends up having to back down first, he could spin a tactical retreat as a win over Mr. Trump. 即使习近平最终不得不率先做出让步,他可能也会将战术性撤退粉饰成对特朗普的胜利。 “This concentration of authority allows the Chinese leader to make sweeping policy decisions unchallenged — and to reverse course just as swiftly,” Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a recent article for Foreign Affairs magazine. 外交关系委员会研究员刘宗媛最近在为《外交事务》杂志撰写的一篇文章中写道:“这种权力的集中使中国领导人能够毫无阻碍地做出全面的决策,同时也能随时改变这些策略。” The Costs to China 中国付出的代价 It is not clear that Mr. Xi’s long-term strategy will make China strong enough to overtake the United States as the top superpower. The focus on critical technologies and economic self-reliance has worsened frictions with China’s trading partners, and it comes at a cost to many Chinese households. 目前尚不清楚习近平的长期战略是否能让中国强大到足以超越美国成为头号超级大国。对关键技术和经济自力更生的关注加剧了与中国贸易伙伴之间的摩擦,让许多中国家庭付出了代价。 American leaders used to say that if China expanded its economic links to the West, it would gradually move toward political liberalization and a full embrace of free markets. But China advanced on its own terms, blending its one-party authoritarian system with capitalism and growing richer without losing political control. 美国领导人过去常说,中国如果扩大与西方的经济联系,就会逐渐走向政治自由化并全面拥抱自由市场。但中国按照自己的方式发展,将一党制威权体系与资本主义相结合,在不失去政治控制的情况下变得更加富有。 Mr. Xi doubled down on that model, directing more capital to state-owned enterprises and banks to ensure the Communist Party had even more say over the economy’s direction. Entrepreneurs were once given space to grow, but under Mr. Xi, officials dictate which industries thrive and which go bust. A more open economy, driven by market demand and not political mandate, could have expanded the ranks, and the influence, of China’s businesses and middle-class consumers. 习近平强化了这种模式,将更多资金导向国有企业和银行,以确保共产党对经济方向有更大的话语权。企业家一度得到了发展的空间,但在习近平领导下,官员们决定哪些产业蓬勃发展,哪些走向破产。由市场需求而非政治指令驱动的更开放的经济本可以扩大中国企业和中产阶级消费者的规模及其影响力。 中国格尔木市的察尔汗盐湖,这里的盐水经过处理可以提取出锂以及其它矿物。 But that might have posed a challenge to the party’s control over society. 但这可能会挑战共产党对社会的控制。 “This is not an economy a statist government desires, and this is why underconsumption has long been recognized as a problem, even at the highest level of the government,” said Yasheng Huang, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management. But “there have not been comparable reforms,” he added. “这不是一个集权政府所期望的经济,这就是为什么消费不足长期以来一直被视为一个问题,甚至在政府最高层也是如此,”麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院中国经济专家黄亚生表示说,“却没有进行相应的改革。” Experts have long argued that spending on social welfare would make China’s economy more balanced and less vulnerable to the West. Chinese economists have urged the government to invest in hospitals and pensions, and to help the hundreds of millions of city-dwelling rural migrants qualify for urban benefits. Such steps are seen as crucial for encouraging ordinary Chinese citizens to save less and spend more, contributing more to the country’s growth. 长期以来,专家们一直认为,在社会福利方面的支出将使中国经济更加平衡,减少相对西方的脆弱性。中国经济学家敦促政府投资医院和养老金,并帮助数亿居住在城市的农民工获得城市福利资格。这些措施被视为鼓励普通中国公民减少储蓄、增加消费,为国家增长做出更多贡献的关键。 去年,购物者从深圳的一块户外大屏幕前走过,屏幕上在播放中国军队的宣传片。 Some experts are even questioning whether Mr. Xi should be challenging the United States so aggressively, rather than following the famous dictum of an earlier top leader, Deng Xiaoping: “Hide your strength, bide your time.” 一些专家甚至质疑,习近平是否应该如此激进地挑战美国,而不是遵循中国前最高领导人邓小平的名言:“韬光养晦。” “China has become so ambitious without reaching superpower status yet,” said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based scholar who focuses on U.S.-China ties. 专注于美中关系的上海学者沈丁立表示:“中国尚未达到超级大国的地位就变得如此雄心勃勃。” Mr. Shen cited Beijing’s expansive claims in the South China Sea; the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy; and the flood of Chinese exports that makes it hard for other countries to compete in trade. Taken together, they have alienated much of the world, contributing to what amounts to a reckoning for Mr. Xi. 沈丁立提到了北京对南海的广泛主张、香港自治权的削弱,以及大量使别国在贸易中难以竞争的中国出口产品。综合来看,这些因素疏远了世界上许多国家,也成了对习近平是非功过的一种清算。 China once had a “favorable external environment” for developing as a nation, but it has been “deteriorating,” Mr. Shen said. “It’s very regrettable.” 中国曾经有一个有利于国家发展的“良好外部环境”,但现在这个环境一直在“恶化”,沈丁立说。“这非常令人遗憾。” Daisuke Wakabayashi自首尔、Berry Wang和Joy Dong自香港对本文有报道贡献。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
艾莎2025年5月12日由于美国对华关税超过145%,订单无法在中国完成,许多中国企业正试图将生产转移到越南。 Linh Pham for The New York Times In the scrum to keep the wheels of trade turning, Chinese companies are pivoting to neighboring countries to escape President Trump’s crippling tariffs. 在保持贸易车轮转动的攻防战中,中国企业正转向邻国,以便逃避特朗普总统的严厉关税。 The hustle is on show in Vietnam. Factories that make everything from jeans to Christmas wreaths are trying to get there fast. The ones that have already moved are ramping up. The Chinese e-commerce platforms Alibaba and Shein are helping companies find manufacturing alternatives in Vietnam. 越南成为这场迁移潮的缩影。从牛仔裤到圣诞花环,各类制造商正在加速向该国转移。已经进驻的工厂在加紧生产。中国电子商务平台阿里巴巴和希音正帮助企业在越南寻找生产替代方案。 The race to get out of China has gathered so much pace in recent weeks that a social media genre of fixers has surfaced to offer tips on how to reroute goods through not only Vietnam, but places like Thailand and Malaysia too. 最近几周,离开中国的竞赛如火如荼,社交媒体上出现了一种新的顾问,他们提供建议,不仅帮中国厂家将货物转向越南,还转向泰国和马来西亚等地。 The cost of sending products to the United States has soared in recent weeks, forcing factories to find new trade routes. Last month, China’s exports to Southeast Asia surged as shipments to America plunged, Chinese government data released on Friday showed. 最近几周,向美国运送产品的成本飙升,迫使工厂寻找新的贸易路线。中国政府周五公布的数据显示,上个月中国对东南亚的出口激增,而对美国的出口大幅下降。 While Mr. Trump has imposed 145 percent tariffs on China, he has paused new tariffs on Vietnam and other Asian countries until early July. Factories across the region have gone into overdrive. 虽然特朗普对中国征收了145%的关税,但他将对越南和其他亚洲国家的新关税暂缓执行至7月初。在这个地区,各地的工厂都在超负荷运转。 “It feels like everybody is rushing to find a Vietnamese partner,” said Vu Manh Hung, who owns seven factories in northern Vietnam and was inundated with requests from Chinese businesses. “感觉每个人都在争相寻找越南合作伙伴,”在越南北部拥有七家工厂的武文雄(音)说,他收到了来自中国企业的大量请求。 They were hoping that his factories could take on orders that were now impossible to fulfill in China with such high tariffs. He did not seal any deals. But that was partly because his manufacturing lines were already busy, under pressure from American clients to deliver orders before July. 他们希望他的工厂能接受因高关税在中国已不可能完成的订单。他没有签署任何协议。但这在一定程度上是因为,在美国客户要求在7月前交付订单的压力下,生产线已经忙得不可开交。 This sense of panic in the Chinese supply chain is familiar. 中国供应链中的这种恐慌感似曾相识。 In 2018, during his first term, Mr. Trump’s tariffs on China caused many multinational companies to search for alternative locations to manufacture their goods. Those tariffs were not steep enough to kick off an exodus. Now, Mr. Trump’s tariffs are so high they have all but stopped trade between the two countries, even pushing Chinese businesses out of China. 2018年,在特朗普的第一个任期内,他对中国征收关税,导致许多跨国公司寻找生产商品的替代地点。不过当时的关税不够高,不足以引发企业的大批外流。现在,特朗普的关税如此之高,以至于几乎停止了两国之间的贸易,甚至迫使中国企业出走海外。 特朗普总统首个任期内对中国征收的关税引发了许多公司寻找其他生产地。 For many Chinese companies, Vietnam is both a long-term solution and short-term fix. The countries share a border, and Vietnam has a large population of young people willing to do grinding factory work. 对许多中国企业来说,越南既是权宜之计,也是长期之选。中越两国接壤,越南有大量的年轻人愿意从事繁重的工厂工作。 But there are challenges for Vietnam. 但是越南也面临着祝多挑战。 Along with the dozens of other countries whose tariffs are on hold, Vietnam is trying to work through a trade deal with American officials who want to limit China’s use of Vietnam as an alternative way into the United States for exports. 与其他几十个关税暂缓的国家一样,越南正试图与美国官员达成一项贸易协议,美国官员希望限制中国利用越南作为向美国出口的替代途径。 During the first U.S.-Chinese tariff war, Chinese companies built factories in Vietnam. Many of those factories are now ramping up orders. One of them is QIS Sport Goods, which opened operations in Vietnam in 2019. 在第一次美中关税战争期间,一些中国公司到越南建厂。现在,许多这样的工厂正在增加订单。其中之一是科斯运动器材有限公司,该公司于2019年在越南投产。 “We are stronger now, and we can offer competitive prices to customers,” said Nguyen Jan, who is Vietnamese and joined the company three years ago. “Everything has been busier.” “我们现在更强大了,我们可以为客户提供有竞争力的价格,”三年前加入该公司的越南人阮简(音)说。“一切都更忙了。” QIS Sport Goods makes water sporting products like kickboards, surfboards and stand-up paddle boards at two factories, one in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan and another in northern Vietnam. 科斯运动器材有限公司在中国南部城市东莞和越南北部各有一家工厂,生产踢水板、冲浪板和桨板等水上运动产品。 The company employs around 150 people in China and 400 in Vietnam, where it is hustling to hire more. 该公司在中国约有150名员工,在越南有400名员工,并且正努力在越南招聘更多人手。 Another Chinese company, Dongguan Box, recently completed a production line in its Vietnamese factory just for its American customers like Tiffany & Company and Hallmark. 另一家中国公司Dongguan Box最近在其越南工厂建成了一条生产线,专门为蒂芙尼公司和贺曼等美国客户服务。 Rita Peng, the marketing manager, said the calls from her American customers started coming in April, when Mr. Trump began to escalate tariffs on Chinese goods. They asked: Could she quickly shift their production to Vietnam? 营销经理丽塔·彭(音)表示,她的美国客户从4月开始纷纷打来电话,当时特朗普开始提高对中国商品的关税。他们问:她能迅速把生产转移到越南吗? She was happy to oblige, but Ms. Peng said the change made little sense to her. Picking up an elaborate red gift box with a paper flower and a two-sided opening, she explained why. 她很乐意积极配合,但她说,这种改变对她来说不大合理。她拿起一个精致的红色礼品盒,里面有一朵纸花和双面开口,她解释了原因。 在越南,员工在生产线上准备乐高包装。 “If I make this in China, this box is very easy to make,” she said. “Very easy. But if I make this whole box in Vietnam, the cost will be very high.” “如果我在中国做这个,这个盒子很容易做,”她说。“非常容易。但如果我在越南做一整个盒子,成本会非常高。” A box that costs $1 to make in China costs $1.20 in Vietnam, she said, mostly because she needs to ship the raw materials. She said her clients still wanted her to use her Chinese factories to fill orders going to Europe. 她说,一个在中国制作成本为一美元的盒子,在越南的成本为1.2美元,主要是因为需要运输原材料。她说,她的客户仍然希望她利用她在中国的工厂来完成发往欧洲的订单。 Dongguan Box used to have 1,000 workers in China, but that number has been cut down to 200. In Vietnam, there are now 600 workers. But Ms. Peng said she was optimistic and thought that the situation was only temporary. Dongguan Box以前在中国有1000名工人,现在已减少到200人。它在越南现在有600名工人。但彭瑞东表示,她持乐观态度,认为这种情况只是暂时的。 “I believe the U.S. will solve these problems soon,” she said. 她说:“我相信美国很快就会解决这些问题。” E-commerce platforms are doing their part to help Chinese factories find substitutes. 电商平台正在尽自己的一份力,帮助中国工厂寻找替代方案。 The fast fashion platform Shein is offering incentives to Chinese factories to help with the cost of moving to Vietnam, according to one factory owner. And the e-commerce giant Alibaba, which helps merchants find business partners, has dispatched employees in Vietnam to help businesses find alternatives to China before the pause on tariffs in Vietnam ends, a Vietnamese account manager at Alibaba said. 据一位工厂老板说,快时尚平台希音正在向中国工厂提供激励措施,帮助它们降低搬到越南的成本。帮助商家寻找商业伙伴的电子商务巨头阿里巴巴的一位越南客户经理说,该公司已经向越南派遣了团队,帮助企业在越南关税宽限期结束之前,寻找中国之外的选择。 Shein did not respond to a request for comment. 希音没有回应置评请求。 On Chinese social media, a flurry of agents have cropped up offering tips on how to skirt trade rules. For instance, one recent post on Xiaohongshu, the Chinese app also known as RedNote, outlined how to hide a product’s made-in-China origin by shipping it to Malaysia or another nearby country and repackaging it before sending it to the United States. 在中国的社交媒体上涌现出各方人士,提供如何规避贸易规则的攻略。例如,中国应用程序小红书最近发布的一篇帖子概述了如何隐藏产品的中国制造原产地,方法是将产品运往马来西亚或其他邻近国家,重新包装后再发往美国。 “Folks, the high tariffs imposed by the United States on China have reached an astonishing level,” the post said. “But it can’t stump us smart folks.” “宝子们,美国对华关税达到惊人的145%,”帖子写道。“但也难不倒我们这些大聪明。” 越南是中国的南部邻国,拥有大量愿意从事繁重工厂工作的年轻人。 The interest in Vietnam was evident recently in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. Nie Shiwen, who owns a garment factory, said some of his peers had started to expand in Vietnam. For now, he has decided against doing this because of the logistics of getting fabric and other materials to Vietnam, which can take weeks. 最近,中国南方城市广州对越南的兴趣很明显。拥有一家服装厂的聂世文(音)说,他的一些同行已经开始在越南布局。目前,他决定暂不这么做,因为把面料和其他材料运到越南的物流过程可能需要数周时间。 “Nowhere is as fast as China,” Mr. Nie said. “没有哪个国家的速度比得上中国,”聂世文说。 But Jia Yue Technology, a Chinese company that makes Christmas ribbons, stockings, wreaths and gift bags, has already made the leap to Vietnam. Over the past three years it has shifted more than half its production from China, said Jack Xu, who was acting as a translator for a company representative at a trade fair in Ho Chi Minh City. And now it is mulling whether to do more in Vietnam because most of Jia Yue’s customers are in the United States. 但是,生产圣诞彩带、圣诞袜、圣诞花环和圣诞礼品袋的中国企业嘉悦科技(音)早已在越南布局。在过去三年里,该公司已将一半以上的生产从中国转移出去,在胡志明市的一个贸易博览会上为公司代表担任翻译的杰克·徐(音)说。现在,该公司正在考虑是否在越南开展更多业务,因为公司的大多数客户都在美国。 “You know Christmas items,” Mr. Xu said, pointing to a wall of green, plastic wreaths. “Americans, they need it!” “圣诞节这些东西,”杰克·徐指着挂满了一面墙的绿色塑料花环说。“美国人,他们需要这些!” Mr. Xu said he was confident that Jia Yue Technology would be able to weather the trade war since it had a foot in both countries. But he said he hoped that China and the United States could come to a deal. 杰克·徐表示,他相信嘉悦科技能够经受住贸易战的考验,因为它在这两个国家都有产能布局。但他表示,他希望中国和美国能够达成协议。 “For most Chinese, we still want to sell things to Americans,” Mr. Xu said. “对大多数中国人来说,我们还是想把东西卖给美国人,”杰克·徐说。 Tung Ngo自胡志明市、Zixu Wang自香港、Meaghan Tobin和Siyi Zhao自广州对本文有报道贡献。 艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长,报道中国经济和社会新闻。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MAGGIE HABERMAN, ERIC SCHMITT, GLENN THRUSH2025年5月12日停在安德鲁斯联合基地的“空军一号”。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times The Trump administration plans to accept a luxury Boeing 747-8 plane as a donation from the Qatari royal family that will be upgraded to serve as Air Force One, which would make it one of the biggest foreign gifts ever received by the U.S. government, several U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter said. 据几名知情美国官员透露,特朗普政府计划接受卡塔尔王室捐赠的一架豪华波音747-8飞机,该飞机将经改造后作为“空军一号”使用,这将成为美国政府有史以来收到的最大外国礼物之一。 The plane would then be donated to President Donald Trump’s presidential library when he leaves office, two senior officials said. Such a gift raises the possibility that Trump would have use of the plane even after his presidency ends. 两名高级官员表示,这架飞机将在特朗普总统卸任后捐赠给他的总统图书馆。此举让特朗普在卸任后仍有可能使用这架飞机。 While a Qatari official described the proposal as still under discussion and the White House said that gifts it accepted would be done in full compliance with the law, Democratic lawmakers and good-government groups expressed outrage over the substantial ethical issues the plan presented. They cited the intersection of Trump’s official duties with his business interests in the Middle East, the immense value of the lavishly appointed plane and the assumption that Trump would have use of it after leaving office. Sold new, a commercial Boeing 747-8 costs in the range of $400 million. 尽管一名卡塔尔官员表示,该提议仍在讨论中,白宫也表示,它收受赠礼将完全依法办事,但民主党议员和善政团体对该计划带来的重大道德问题表示愤怒。他们指出,特朗普的职权与他在中东的商业利益交织在一起,这架豪华飞机价值巨大,以及特朗普卸任后还有可能使用这架飞机。一架新的波音747-8商用飞机售价在4亿美元左右。 “Even in a presidency defined by grift, this move is shocking,” said Robert Weissman, a co-president of Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy organization. “It makes clear that U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump is up for sale.” 消费者权益倡导组织“公众公民”的联合主席罗伯特·韦斯曼说:“即使在一个以欺诈为特征的总统任期内,这一举动也令人震惊。这清楚地表明,唐纳德·特朗普领导下的美国外交政策是可以拿来做交易的。” An agreement for the government to accept the luxury aircraft and ultimately pass it along to Trump’s library would be the clearest example yet of how he has further intertwined his personal and presidential business in his second term. While Trump faced criticism during his first term for the way his properties collected money from the government, the last four months have included a flurry of deals around a cryptocurrency firm that has erased centuries-old presidential norms. 如果政府同意接收这架豪华飞机,并最终将其转交给特朗普的图书馆,这将是特朗普在第二任期内进一步将个人事务与总统事务交织在一起的最鲜明例证。在第一个任期内,特朗普就因其拥有的物业向政府收钱而饱受批评;在过去的四个月里,他更是围绕一家加密货币公司进行了一系列交易,彻底颠覆了几个世纪以来的总统行为规范。 The model that the government is using for addressing the ethical issues raised by the donation, one of the officials said, is the one followed by President Ronald Reagan’s presidential library when it received the Air Force One he had flown on after it was retired from use. But at the time, Reagan did not use the plane to fly around. It was set up in the museum portion of his library. 一名官员表示,政府对此捐赠所涉道德问题的处理模式,效仿了里根总统图书馆接收退役专机“空军一号”的先例。但当时,里根并没有使用这架飞机出行。它陈列在总统图书馆的博物馆展区。 Erica L. Green和Michael自华盛顿对本文有报道贡献。 Maggie Haberman是《纽约时报》白宫记者,报道特朗普总统。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者,主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题,他报道此类新闻已超过三十年。 Glenn Thrush为《纽约时报》报道司法部新闻,还撰写有关枪支暴力、公民权利以及美国监狱状况的文章。 翻译:晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
ALAN RAPPEPORT, ANA SWANSON2025年5月12日日内瓦贸易谈判中的中国代表团成员。 Denis Balibouse/Reuters Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that the United States had made “substantial progress” in talks with China after a weekend of meetings in Geneva, and that additional details would be announced on Monday. 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日表示,美国在周末与中国的日内瓦会谈已取得“实质性进展”,并称将于周一公布更多细节。 Any indication of a trade truce between the world’s two largest economies would lift financial markets and ease concerns among companies, investors and economists that the global economy was poised for a sharp downturn. 任何美中这两个世界最大经济体之间达成贸易休战的迹象都将提振金融市场,并缓解企业、投资者和经济学家对全球经济可能急剧下坠的担忧。 Although there were no immediate details about an agreement, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, who joined Mr. Bessent in the negotiations, suggested that some form of a “deal” had been reached that addressed the Trump administration’s national security concerns about China’s trade practices. But Mr. Greer did not say whether the two nations had agreed to drop any of the punishing tariffs that have been imposed over the past months. 尽管有关协议的细节尚未公布,但与贝森特一同参与谈判的美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔暗示,双方已达成某种形式的“协议”,以解决特朗普政府对中国贸易做法的国家安全担忧。但格里尔未透露两国是否同意取消任何在过去几个月实施的惩罚性关税。 “It’s important to understand how quickly we were able to come to agreement, which reflects that perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought,” Mr. Greer said after the talks, noting that the U.S. tariffs were a response to unbalanced trade between the countries, which the Trump administration viewed as a national emergency. “We’re confident that the deal we struck with our Chinese partners will help us work toward resolving that national emergency.” “必须看到我们达成协议的速度之快,这反映出两国之间的分歧可能没有人们想象得那么大,”格里尔在会谈后表示,并指出美国加征关税是对两国之间贸易不平衡的回应,特朗普政府将这种贸易不平衡视为国家紧急状况。“我们有信心与中国伙伴达成的这项协议,将有助于我们努力解决这一国家紧急状况。” He Lifeng, China’s vice premier for economic policy, who led the talks for the Chinese, said that the talks were “candid, in-depth and constructive,” according to reports from Chinese state media. 据中国官方媒体报道,领导中方谈判的国务院副总理、负责经济政策的何立峰表示,会谈“坦诚、深入、具有建设性”。 Mr. He said that the countries had reached an agreement to establish a “consultation mechanism” to discuss economic and trade issues, and would conduct further consultations, state media said. 官方媒体称,何立峰表示,双方同意建立“磋商机制”,以讨论经济和贸易问题,并继续进行进一步磋商。 The comments came after two days of marathon negotiations between the two countries. The talks were an attempt to ease tensions that have flared this year after Mr. Trump initiated a trade war by ratcheting up tariffs on Chinese imports. 上述言论是在两国进行为期两天的马拉松式谈判之后发表的。这次会谈旨在缓和今年以来因特朗普对中国进口商品加征关税引发贸易战而激化的紧张局势。 The talks have major implications for the global economy, which has been rocked by the tariffs that the United States and China have imposed on each other in recent months. Mr. Trump has imposed a minimum tariff of 145 percent on all Chinese imports, while China has hit American products with a 125 percent import tax. 此次会谈对全球经济具有重大影响,近几个月来,美国与中国相互加征关税,令全球经济震荡。特朗普已对所有中国进口商品加征至少145%的关税,中国则对美国产品征收了125%的进口税。 Though the two governments have taken an outwardly tough position, officials in both countries have indicated they would like to find a path to bring the tariffs down. The tariffs are so punitive they are already disrupting the world’s supply chains. 尽管两国政府表面上立场强硬,但双方官员均表示,希望找到降低关税的方法。这些关税惩罚性极强,已开始扰乱全球供应链。 American companies at risk of bankruptcy are scrambling to source products from countries other than China. Chinese factories are shuttering their doors, or looking for ways around the U.S. tariffs and exporting more to Southeast Asia. At the same time, many U.S. businesses are weighing how much they can increase prices to help offset the tariff costs. 面临破产风险的美国公司正争相从中国以外的国家寻找替代供应商。中国工厂则纷纷停产歇业,或寻找规避美国关税的途径,转而加大对东南亚的出口。与此同时,许多美国企业正在权衡提价幅度,帮助抵消关税成本带来的压力。 Economists have warned that the trade dispute will slow global growth and fuel inflation, potentially tipping the United States into a recession. Those economic fears have pressured Mr. Trump into seeking a deal with China. 经济学家警告称,这场贸易争端将拖累全球经济增长,并推高通胀,可能使美国陷入衰退。这些经济担忧促使特朗普寻求与中国达成协议。 The two sides met to negotiate in historically neutral territory: Geneva, which is also home to the World Trade Organization. Dozens of officials from the countries were camped out on Saturday and Sunday at the residence of the Swiss ambassador to the United Nations, a stately villa that overlooks the lake at the center of the city. 双方在具有中立历史的日内瓦举行谈判,那里也是世界贸易组织的总部所在地。周六和周日,两国数十名官员待在瑞士驻联合国大使官邸内,这是一座俯瞰市中心日内瓦湖的庄严别墅。 After roughly seven hours of talks on Saturday, the United States said it would not release any formal statement about the proceedings. 在周六约七小时的会谈后,美国表示,不会就谈判过程发表任何正式声明。 Mr. Trump hailed the initial conversations as a success. 特朗普称赞初步会谈取得了成功。 “A very good meeting today with China, in Switzerland,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday night. “Many things discussed, much agreed to. A total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner.” “今天在瑞士与中国的会谈非常好,”特朗普周六晚在Truth Social上写道,“讨论了许多事,达成了许多共识。以友好但建设性的方式达成了全面重启。” The discussions were led by Mr. Bessent and Mr. Greer for the United States and by Mr. He Lifeng for China. 这次会谈由美方的贝森特和格里尔以及中方的何立峰主持。 美国财长贝森特是周末日内瓦贸易谈判的美方负责人。 It’s unclear which, if any, of the outstanding issues between the countries had been resolved. 目前尚不清楚两国之间有哪些悬而未决的问题已得到解决。 The Trump administration has accused China of unfairly subsidizing key sectors of its economy and flooding the world with cheap goods. And the United States has been pressuring China to take more aggressive steps to curb exports of precursors for fentanyl, a drug that has killed tens of thousands of Americans. 特朗普政府指责中国对其经济的关键领域进行了不公平补贴,并向全球倾销廉价商品。美国还一直对中国施压,要求其采取更强有力的措施限制芬太尼前体化学物质的出口,芬太尼已在美国造成数以万计的人死亡。 Mr. Trump initially added a 20 percent tariff to Chinese exports, accusing the country of not doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl to the United States. When the president announced global tariffs at the beginning of April, he added another 34 percent tariff on China. And when China retaliated with its own measures, Mr. Trump quickly raised tariffs on Chinese products to a minimum of 145 percent. 特朗普最初对中国出口商品加征20%的关税,并指责中国未采取足够措施阻止芬太尼流入美国。当总统于4月初宣布全球性关税时,他又对中国追加34%的关税。随后中国采取反制措施,特朗普随即将中国商品的关税下限提高到145%。 Ahead of the meetings in Geneva, Mr. Trump suggested that he would be open to lowering those tariffs to 80 percent. But the White House spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said that China would have to make concessions for the tariffs to be reduced. 在日内瓦会谈前,特朗普曾暗示他愿意将这些关税降低至80%。但白宫发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示,中国必须作出让步,关税才可能降低。 The United States is expected to press China not just on the issue of tariffs and fentanyl shipments, but also on its other export bans that threaten U.S. companies. In response to Mr. Trump’s trade moves, Beijing placed export restrictions on key minerals and magnets, which are needed by companies that manufacture electric vehicles, semiconductors, aircraft, missiles, submarines and other military technologies. 美国预计将不仅就关税和芬太尼问题向中方施压,还将针对其他威胁美国企业的出口管制措施提出交涉。作为对特朗普贸易行动的回应,北京对关键矿物和磁铁实施了出口限制,这些材料对电动汽车、半导体、飞机、导弹、潜艇以及其他军事技术至关重要。 China has been steadfast in saying it does not intend to make trade concessions in response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs. Officials there have insisted that the nation agreed to engage in talks at the request of the United States. U.S. officials have disputed that. 中国始终坚称不会因特朗普加征关税而作出贸易让步。中方官员强调,是应美国请求才同意进行谈判。美国官员则对此表示异议。 The trade talks this weekend were intended to set the stage for broader economic negotiations between the two countries. 周末进行的贸易谈判旨在为两国之间更广泛的经济磋商奠定基础。 “We think the takeaway is to lower expectations for what might emerge from talks between U.S. and Chinese officials this weekend,” Nancy Vanden Houten, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note on Saturday. “我们认为,应该降低对本周末中美官员会谈可能产生的结果的预期,”牛津经济研究院美国经济学家南希·范登·豪滕在周六的一份研究简报中写道。 Ms. Vanden Houten explained that even if the United States reduced the tariff rate on Chinese imports to 80 percent, the overall effective tariff rate for imports would be three times higher than projections from when Mr. Trump was elected. Some analysts and executives have said that tariffs above 50 percent are generally high enough to prohibit trade. 范登·豪滕解释说,即使美国把中国进口商品的关税降至80%,实际综合税率仍比特朗普当选时的预测高出三倍。一些分析人士和企业高管表示,超过50%的关税通常已足以抑制贸易。 Scott Lincicome, a trade economist at the Cato Institute, a libertarian research organization, said it was a positive sign that the United States and China had agreed to keep talking. But, he added, the fact that neither side announced any concrete concessions after the talks suggested that the negotiations would be a long slog. 自由主义研究机构凯托研究所的贸易经济学家斯科特·林西科姆表示,美中同意继续对话是一个积极信号。但他补充说,会谈后双方均未宣布任何具体让步,这表明谈判将是一个漫长艰苦的过程。 “To have 16 hours of weekend meetings and the only deliverable is a mechanism to hold more meetings sounds pretty terrible,” Mr. Lincicome said. “周末谈了16个小时,唯一的成果是建立一个举行更多会谈的机制,这听起来实在有些糟糕,”林西科姆说。 But Mr. Trump appeared poised to declare that the talks were a success nonetheless. 不过,特朗普似乎仍准备将此次会谈宣称为一次成功。 Reiterating his call for China to open up its markets to American companies on Saturday, Mr. Trump declared: “GREAT PROGRESS MADE!!!” 他在周六再次呼吁中国向美国企业开放市场,并宣称:“取得了重大进展!!!” Amy Chang Chien自台湾台北对本文有报道贡献。 Alan Rappeport是时报驻华盛顿的经济政策记者。 他负责报道财政部并撰写有关税收、贸易和财政事务的文章。 Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻,常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS: https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
方贝2025年5月9日 Elaine L In February 2020, weeks before Covid-19 paralyzed the world, the Radio Free Asia reporter Jane Tang received a panicked text from a source in Wuhan, China: “They are following me,” the message read. “I’m too scared to move.” Ms. Tang had been investigating China’s cover-up of a new disease that had spread through Wuhan when she learned that Li Zehua, a journalist who had quit his state media job to chase the story, was being trailed by the police. Shortly after Ms. Tang received the message, Mr. Li was arrested. 2020年2月,就在新冠疫情让世界陷入瘫痪的几周前,自由亚洲电台记者唐家婕收到了一位在中国武汉的线人发来的一条惊慌的短信:“他们在跟踪我,”短信写道。“我吓得不敢动。”当时,唐家婕正在调查中国对一种在武汉蔓延的新疾病的掩盖,她得知从央媒辞职追查此事的记者李泽华正被警方跟踪。唐家婕收到短信后不久,李泽华就被捕了。 In contacting RFA, Mr. Li turned to one of the last reliable channels for on-the-ground, uncensored news in China. Since it was established in 1996 by the U.S. government in response to China’s massacre of pro-democracy student protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989, RFA has reported from regions in Asia hostile to independent journalism: China, North Korea and Myanmar, among others, filling an important gap where free press outlets cannot exist. 李泽华联系的自由亚洲电台是仅有的几个提供现场采访、未经审查的中国新闻的地方之一。1996年,针对1989年中国在天安门广场屠杀亲民主学生抗议者的事件,美国政府成立了自由亚洲电台,此后该机构一直在亚洲敌视独立新闻的地区进行报道,包括中国、朝鲜和缅甸等,在自由新闻机构无法生存之处填补了的一个重要空白。 RFA’s impact has been crucial in China, where the Chinese Communist Party maintains a stranglehold on all media. The party, which leads the world in imprisoning journalists, relentlessly monitors and surveils social media and punishes people for online comments that run afoul of Beijing’s official narrative. Its advanced censorship and surveillance technologies are constantly upgraded to block unsanctioned news from reaching ordinary Chinese people. 在中共控制所有媒体的中国,自由亚洲电台的影响至关重要。中国监禁了世界上最多的记者,对社交媒体进行无情的监控,并对违背北京官方叙事的网络评论进行惩罚。它不断升级先进的审查和监控技术,以阻止未经许可的新闻传播到普通中国人当中。 Despite the roadblocks and intimidation, a national survey by Ipsos found that at least 44.1 million users managed to break through China’s Great Firewall weekly to read and listen to RFA’s reports in Mandarin, Cantonese, Uyghur and Tibetan. They seek out RFA to learn the truth about subjects such as natural disasters, mass protests, internal party conflicts and Taiwan’s democracy. The connection goes both ways: Ordinary citizens have provided the invaluable news tips that have fueled RFA’s reporting for almost 30 years. 尽管存在种种障碍和恐吓,益普索的一项全国调查发现,每周至少有4410万用户设法翻墙,阅读和收听自由亚洲电台的普通话、粤语、维吾尔语和藏语报道。他们通过该电台了解自然灾害、群众抗议、党内冲突和台湾民主等方面的真实情况。这种联系也是双向的:普通民众为其提供了宝贵的新闻线索,为自由亚洲电台近30年的报道提供了动力。 Yet today, as part of President Trump’s administrative cuts, RFA stands on the brink of extinction. On March 15, RFA’s parent agency, the U.S. Agency for Global Media, notified us that the $60 million grant that financed our entire operation was canceled and we would no longer receive our congressionally appropriated funds. Since then, RFA has been forced to sever contracts with almost all of our 463 on-the-ground stringers and furlough more than three-quarters of our 391 full-time staff members. Our studios are empty, and news production is minimal. Entire services in some languages have gone dark. Layoffs are imminent. 然而今天,作为特朗普总统的行政裁撤行动的一部分,自由亚洲电台几近关门。3月15日,自由亚洲电台的上级美国国际媒体署通知我们,我们的全部运营经费6000万美元被取消,我们以后不会再收到国会拨款。从那时起,自由亚洲电台被迫与我们几乎全部的463名实地特约记者解除合同,并让391名全职员工中四分之三以上的人进入强制无薪假。我们的演播室变得空无一人,制作的新闻数量也少得可怜。某些语种的整个服务已关闭。裁员迫在眉睫。 While the United States divests from providing free, uncensored press in China, the Chinese government continues to ramp up its global disinformation operation. China pours billions of dollars annually into a global media influence campaign that includes a radio program in some 50 languages, and its China Global Television Network operates in more than 70 countries. Beyond its official transmissions and websites, Beijing gives away content to media outlets throughout Africa, the Pacific region and Southeast Asia, and reportedly pays non-Chinese influencers to gush about subjects like tourism in Xinjiang, home to the repressed Uyghur minority. 在美国放弃在中国提供自由、未经审查的新闻的同时,中国政府继续加强其全球虚假信息传播行动。中国每年投入数十亿美元开展全球媒体影响活动,其中包括用大约50种语言播出的广播节目,其中国环球电视网在70多个国家运营。除官方的电台、电视台和网站外,中国政府还向非洲、太平洋地区和东南亚的媒体机构提供内容,据报道,还付费给国外网红,让他们大谈特谈新疆旅游等话题,新疆是少数民族维吾尔族生活的地方。 Celebrating RFA’s imminent demise on Weibo, a popular Chinese social media platform, a former editor in chief of the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times wrote, “Such great news.” By letting RFA go totally dark at this crucial moment, the U.S. government would cede the information space to China, playing into the hands of President Xi Jinping. 中共喉舌《环球时报》的一位前主编在微博上庆祝自由亚洲电台即将关门,称之为“大快人心”。在这样一个关键时刻让自由亚洲电台完全消失,美国政府将把信息空间拱手让给中国,正中习近平主席下怀。 RFA’s survival is central to U.S. interests. The recently published Annual Threat Assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence leaves little doubt that the Trump administration considers China the central menace to U.S. security. The report warns of Chinese operations weaponizing fake online profiles and artificial-intelligence-generated news anchors to “suppress critical views and critics of China within the United States and worldwide, and sow doubts in U.S. leadership and strength.” 自由亚洲电台的生存关系到美国的核心利益。国家情报总监办公室最近发布的《年度威胁评估》明确表明,特朗普政府认为中国是美国安全的核心威胁。报告警告说,中国的行动利用虚假的网络个人资料和人工智能生成的新闻主播,“压制美国国内和世界对中国的批评观点和批评者,并散播对美国领导力和实力的怀疑。” RFA’s on-the-ground journalism has brought the world’s attention to some of the Chinese Communist Party’s most inconvenient truths. When the Hong Kong government forced the independent news providers Apple Daily and Stand News to fold in 2021, RFA stood its ground as the last major independent Cantonese media outlet. We continued to operate in Hong Kong until threats to our journalists forced us to close our bureau last year. 自由亚洲电台的实地新闻报道让世界注意到了中共的一些最不希望为外界所知的真相。2021年,当香港政府迫使独立新闻机构《苹果日报》和《立场新闻》关门时,自由亚洲电台作为最后一家主要的独立粤语媒体坚守阵地。我们继续在香港运营,直到去年我们的记者受到威胁,迫使我们关闭了香港办公室。 When China opened a secret police station in New York in 2022, RFA’s investigative reporters exposed that it was but a small part of a growing network of party stations around the globe. And when the Chinese government started rounding up Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in 2017, RFA’s small team of Uyghur reporters in Washington exposed mass detentions in Xinjiang that eventually ensnared more than a million people. Our reporting was picked up by news outlets around the world and led the United States to declare that the Chinese Communist Party was committing genocide against its Uyghur citizens. In retaliation for RFA’s coverage, we estimate that Chinese authorities have jailed at least 50 of our Uyghur journalists’ family members. 当中国于2022年在纽约设立秘密警务站时,自由亚洲电台的调查记者揭露,它只是全球不断增长的中共警务站网络的一小部分。当中国政府于2017年开始围捕维吾尔人和其他穆斯林少数民族时,自由亚洲电台在华盛顿的维吾尔记者小组揭露了新疆的大规模拘押事件,最终导致逾100万人遭到关押。我们的报道被世界各地的新闻媒体转载,并导致美国宣布中共正在对维吾尔族公民进行种族灭绝。作为对自由亚洲电台的报复,我们估计中国当局至少监禁了50名维吾尔记者的家人。 The sacrifices that RFA reporters make knowing they’re the last line of defense for their countrymen are often unimaginable. They cut family ties to minimize the harassment of their loved ones. They have been jailed, tortured and exiled. Now these brave journalists, who have risked everything to speak truth to dictators abroad, may be silenced by the very nation whose belief in press freedom inspired them in the first place. 自由亚洲电台的记者知道自己是同胞的最后一道防线,他们做出了常人难以想象的牺牲。他们切断与家人的联系,以减少亲人受到的骚扰。他们曾入狱、遭受酷刑和流放。现在,这些冒着一切风险在国外向独裁者喊话的勇敢记者,可能会被当初激励他们相信新闻自由的国家所噤声。 The irony is as stark as it is cruel, and that is why we continue to fight for RFA’s survival, bringing our case to the courts. Last week the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ordered the U.S. government to release our funds. The order has since been appealed, and we have yet to receive any additional funds. If RFA is silenced, the official narratives espoused by dictators and despots may go unchecked and unchallenged. The next time a brave source calls or texts, there will be no one left to pick up the phone. 这是一种彻底而残酷的反讽,也是为什么我们仍在为自由亚洲电台的生存而战,将案件诉诸法庭。上周,哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院裁定美国政府必须解冻我们的资金。然而该裁决旋即遭遇上诉,我们至今仍未收到任何追加拨款。如果自由亚洲电台被噤声,独裁者和暴君所支持的官方叙事可能不再受到制约和挑战。下次再有勇敢的线人打来电话或发来短信,恐怕就无人应答了。 方贝是自由亚洲电台总裁兼首席执行官。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ZIA ur-REHMAN, MUJIB MASHAL, ANUPREETA DAS2025年5月9日4月25日,印度安全部队在克什米尔的达尔湖畔巡逻。 Adnan Abidi/Reuters The risk of all-out war between India and Pakistan rose on Thursday, despite diplomatic attempts to de-escalate the conflict between the two nuclear-armed countries. 周四,印度和巴基斯坦之间爆发全面战争的风险上升,尽管这两个拥核国家都试图通过外交手段缓和冲突。 On Wednesday, India said it carried out strikes on Pakistan in retaliation for a terrorist attack that killed 26 civilians in Kashmir last month. Pakistan said its forces shot down Indian aircraft. Overnight into Thursday, heavy shelling and strikes were reported on each side of the border. 印度在周三称其对巴基斯坦进行了空袭,以报复上个月在克什米尔造成26名平民死亡的恐怖袭击。巴基斯坦称其军队击落了印度飞机。据报道,从当晚到星期四,边境两侧都发生了猛烈的炮击和袭击。 The two nations have fought numerous wars, with the disputed area of Kashmir as a prime flashpoint, since 1947, when Britain divided India, its former colony, into India and Pakistan. 自1947年英国将其前殖民地印度划分为印度和巴基斯坦以来,两国之间爆发了无数场战争,有争议的克什米尔地区是主要的爆发点。 Here is what to know about attempts to resolve the conflict, Wednesday’s strikes, the attack in Kashmir, and the longstanding tensions between India and Pakistan. 以下是有关解决冲突的努力、周三的空袭、克什米尔袭击事件以及印度和巴基斯坦之间长期紧张关系的要点。 What’s the latest in the fighting? 战斗的最新情况如何? Pakistani attempts to unleash drones and missiles at Indian military targets in more than a dozen cities and towns, many of them home to air force bases. 巴基斯坦试图向印度十几个城镇的军事目标发射无人机和导弹,其中许多是空军基地所在地。 India said it had responded by striking Pakistan’s air defense systems and radars close to the city of Lahore — the kind of blow that often causes a military conflict to intensify, analysts said. 印度表示,作为回应,该国对巴基斯坦在拉合尔市附近的防空系统和雷达进行了打击。分析人士表示,这种打击通常会导致军事冲突加剧。 Pakistan accused India of continuing what it called illegal aggression and said its forces had shot down more than two dozen Indian drones that entered Pakistan’s airspace. 巴基斯坦指责印度继续其所称的非法侵略,并表示其军队击落了20多架进入巴基斯坦领空的印度无人机。 In the rapidly developing situation, the claims from both sides could not be independently verified.On Wednesday, the Indian government said its forces had struck nine sites in Pakistan and on Pakistan’s side of the disputed Kashmir region. 在事态迅速发展的情况下,双方的说法都无法得到独立证实。周三,印度政府表示其军队打击了巴基斯坦境内和克什米尔争议地区巴方一侧的九个地点。 Pakistani military officials said that more than 20 people had been killed and dozens injured after six places were hit on the Pakistani side of Kashmir and in Punjab Province. Residents of the Indian side of Kashmir said at least 10 people had been killed in shelling from the Pakistani side since India carried out its strikes. 巴基斯坦军方官员表示,克什米尔巴基斯坦一侧和旁遮普省的六个地点遭到袭击,造成20多人死亡,数十人受伤。克什米尔印度一侧的居民说,自印度发动袭击以来,至少有10人在巴方的炮击中丧生。 A spokesman for the Pakistani Army said that five other places had also come under attack, leaving at least eight people dead and 35 wounded. 巴基斯坦军方发言人说,另外还有五个地点遭到袭击,造成至少八人死亡,35人受伤。 The targeted locations included Bahawalpur, in Punjab Province, Pakistan, the site of a religious seminary associated with Jaish-e-Mohammad, another Pakistan-based militant group; Kotli and Bagh in Pakistan-administered Kashmir; and Shakargarh and Muridke in Punjab. Lashkar-e-Taiba is believed to have a presence in Muridke.The Pakistani military said that Indian planes did not enter Pakistan’s airspace while conducting the attacks. 遇袭地点包括巴基斯坦旁遮普省的巴哈瓦尔布尔,那里是与巴基斯坦另一激进组织穆罕默德军有关联的神学院所在地;巴控克什米尔的科特利和巴格;旁遮普的沙卡加尔和穆里德克。穆里德克据信有虔诚军力量。巴基斯坦军方说,印度飞机在进行袭击时没有进入巴基斯坦领空。 What are the efforts to stop the fighting? 各方为停止战斗做出了哪些努力? Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with leaders from both countries on Thursday and emphasized the need for “immediate de-escalation,” according to State Department accounts of the calls. 国务卿鲁比奥周四与两国领导人进行了通话,根据国务院对通话内容的描述,他强调了“立即缓和紧张局势”的必要性。 There were a flurry of diplomatic meetings in New Delhi and Islamabad on Thursday. Top diplomats from Iran and Saudi Arabia, crucial regional players who have close ties to both of the warring countries, were in New Delhi for meetings. 周四,在新德里和伊斯兰堡举行了一系列外交会议。伊朗和沙特阿拉伯的高级外交官在新德里参会,这两个国家在该地区扮演着重要角色,与两个交战国都有着密切的关系。 The diplomatic push was centered around the hope that the heaviest military engagement could be contained to the actions on early Wednesday. Both sides could plausibly claim victory, as India struck deeper into Pakistan than it had at any point in recent decades, and Pakistan downed several Indian planes. 外交努力的核心是希望最激烈的交战仅限于周三早那样的行动。双方都可以看上去有理有据地宣称取得了胜利,因为印度对巴基斯坦的打击比近几十年来任何时候都要深入,而巴基斯坦则击落了数架印度飞机。 Diplomats and analysts expressed some hope that the day’s events might offer the two sides an offramp. The question now is whether Pakistan will decide that it must answer India’s strikes in Punjab, the Pakistani heartland, with an attack of its own on Indian soil. 外交和分析人士表示,希望当天的事件可能为双方提供一个退路。现在的问题是,巴基斯坦是否会决定必须以对印度领土的攻击来回应印度对巴基斯坦腹地旁遮普省的打击。 What happened in the Kashmir attack? 克什米尔袭击事件中发生了什么? On April 22, 26 people in the Baisaran Valley in Kashmir were killed by militants who approached and shot them. Another 17 were injured. 4月22日,武装分子来到克什米尔的拜萨兰山谷,开枪打死26人。另有17人受伤。 Except for one local Kashmiri man, a government tally of the dead showed that all were Hindu tourists. Accounts from the injured and survivors suggested many were targeted after they were asked about their religion. The attack, which occurred near Pahalgam, a town in the southern part of Indian-administered Kashmir, was one of the worst on Indian civilians in decades. 政府对死者的统计显示,除了一名当地的克什米尔男子外,所有死者都是印度教游客。伤者和幸存者的说法表明,许多人在被问及宗教信仰后成为袭击目标。这次袭击发生在印控克什米尔南部城镇巴哈尔甘附近,是几十年来针对印度平民最严重的袭击之一。 A group calling itself the Resistance Front emerged on social media to take responsibility. Indian officials privately say the group is a proxy for Lashkar-e-Taiba, a terrorist organization based in Pakistan. 一个自称“抵抗阵线”的组织在社交媒体上出现,声称对此负责。印度官员私下说,这个组织是总部设在巴基斯坦的恐怖组织虔诚军的代理者。 In Kashmir, Indian security forces have begun a sweeping clampdown, arresting thousands of people. 在克什米尔,印度安全部队开始大规模镇压,逮捕了数以千计人。 What is Operation Sindoor? “朱砂行动”是什么? “Operation Sindoor” for its military action. “朱砂行动”是一项军事行动。 Sindoor, or vermilion powder, is a traditional marker of the marital status of Hindu women. Married women wear it either in the parting of their hair or on their foreheads, and they wipe it off if they become widowed. During the April 22 terrorist attack, many women lost their husbands, who were targeted because they were Hindu. 朱砂是印度妇女婚姻状况的传统标志。已婚妇女将其涂在头发的分叉处或额头上,如果成为寡妇,就会把它擦掉。在4月22日的恐怖袭击中,许多女性失去了丈夫,他们因为是印度教徒而成为目标。 The Indian government’s choice of the name Operation Sindoor signaled its intention to avenge the widowed women. 印度政府选择“朱砂行动”这个名称,表明它打算为那些丧偶女性复仇。 “Operation Sindoor” also signals to right-wing Hindu groups — many of which favor more traditionally defined gender roles — that the Hindu nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is listening to their demands for vengeance. “朱砂行动”也是在向右翼印度教团体发出信号——其中许多人更倾向于传统定义的性别角色——莫迪总理领导的印度教民族主义政府正在倾听他们复仇的要求。 But some feminists have criticized the use of the word sindoor. 但是一些女权主义者批评了“朱砂”这个词的使用。 Hindu nationalism is predominantly driven by a male view of the world, said V. Geetha, a feminist historian who writes about gender, caste and class. “Women figure in it as objects to be protected or as mother figures goading their men to prove their heroism,” Ms. Geetha said. 就性别、种姓和阶级问题撰文的女权主义历史学家V·吉塔说,印度民族主义主要是由男性的世界观驱动的。“女性在其中扮演的角色是被保护的对象,或者是激励男性证明自己的英雄气概的母亲角色,”吉塔说。 What are the origins of the dispute? 争端的起源是什么? The roots of the Kashmir conflict trace back to the 1947 partition of British India, which led to the creation of a predominantly Hindu India and a predominantly Muslim Pakistan.In October of that year, the Hindu monarch of the Muslim-majority princely state of Kashmir acceded to India, but Pakistan laid claim to the territory and sought to take it by military force. A U.N.-brokered agreement in 1949 established a cease-fire line, dividing Kashmir. 克什米尔冲突的根源可以追溯到1947年英属印度的分治,其结果是一个以印度教为主的印度和一个以穆斯林为主的巴基斯坦的建立。同年10月,穆斯林占多数的克什米尔土邦的印度教君主加入印度,但巴基斯坦声称对该领土拥有主权,并试图武力夺取。1949年在联合国斡旋下达成的一项协议划定了一条停火线,将克什米尔一分为二。 After wars in 1965 and 1971, the cease-fire line became the Line of Control, with India possessing about two-thirds of Kashmir and Pakistan the rest. But the dispute remains unresolved. 在1965年和1971年的战争之后,停火线变成了控制线,印度拥有大约三分之二的克什米尔,巴基斯坦拥有其余部分。但争端仍未解决。 Has Pakistan supported militancy in Kashmir? 巴基斯坦是否支持克什米尔的军事行动? An insurgency in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir began in the 1980s, primarily driven by local grievances, with Pakistan eventually supporting some groups, experts say. 印控克什米尔地区的叛乱始于20世纪80年代,主要是由当地的不满情绪引起的,专家称,巴基斯坦最终支持了一些组织。 Among the Kashmir-focused insurgent groups that emerged, some supported independence for the region, while others wanted the Indian side of Kashmir to be taken over by Pakistan. 在以克什米尔为中心的叛乱组织中,一些人支持该地区独立,而另一些人则希望克什米尔的印度一侧由巴基斯坦接管。 In the 1990s, Pakistan provided training and other support to several militant groups operating in Kashmir and within Pakistan. This involvement was later acknowledged by several senior Pakistani officials, including the former military ruler Pervez Musharraf. The spike in insurgency in the 1990s forced an exodus of Kashmir’s minority Hindus, a large number of them leaving for New Delhi and other cities after facing targeted attacks. 20世纪90年代,巴基斯坦向在克什米尔和巴基斯坦境内活动的几个激进组织提供了训练和其他支持。后来,包括前军事统治者佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫在内的几位巴基斯坦高级官员承认了这种参与。90年代,叛乱活动激增,迫使在克什米尔占少数的印度教徒大量逃离,其中许多人在面临有针对性的袭击后前往新德里和其他城市。 The insurgency began to ease around 2002, as Pakistan banned Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, another major militant group, although Lashkar-e-Taiba continued to operate under aliases. A cease-fire was declared and a peace process with India was initiated, a shift that some observers linked to pressure by the United States after its post-9/11 intervention in Afghanistan. 叛乱在2002年前后开始缓和,因为巴基斯坦取缔了虔诚军和穆罕默德军(另一个主要的军事组织),但虔诚军继续打着别的旗号活动。巴基斯坦宣布停火,并启动了与印度的和平进程,一些观察人士认为,这一转变与9·11事件后出兵干预阿富汗的美国施加的压力有关。 The peace process collapsed after attacks in Mumbai, India, in 2008, which killed 166 people and were attributed to Lashkar-e-Taiba. 2008年,印度孟买发生袭击,造成166人死亡,和平进程随之破裂,袭击被认为是虔诚军所为。 What is Kashmir’s status now? 克什米尔现在的情况如何? Since war last broke out in 1999, Kashmir has remained one of the most militarized places in the world. India and Pakistan have come to the brink of war several times, including in 2019, when a suicide bombing in Kashmir killed at least 40 Indian soldiers. 自1999年战争爆发以来,克什米尔一直是世界上军事化程度最高的地区之一。印度和巴基斯坦曾多次濒临战争边缘,包括2019年,克什米尔发生的一起自杀式炸弹袭击造成至少40名印度士兵死亡。 In 2019, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked a part of the Indian constitution that had given semi-autonomy to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The move, to fully integrate Jammu and Kashmir, as India’s portion of the region is known, was part of his Hindu nationalist agenda. 2019年,莫迪政府撤销了印度宪法中赋予查谟和克什米尔邦半自治权的部分内容。此举是他的印度教民族主义议程的一部分,旨在统一查谟和克什米尔。 Pakistan condemned India’s moves. But violent unrest has broken out in the part of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan, too. Protests there have reflected a general feeling of dissatisfaction with Pakistani rule. 巴基斯坦谴责印度的举动。但是巴基斯坦控制的克什米尔地区也爆发了暴力骚乱。那里的抗议活动反映了人们对巴基斯坦统治的普遍不满。 Direct rule by India dampened the outbreaks of violence in the portion of Kashmir it controlled. Voting also resumed last year. But discontent with Mr. Modi’s party, particularly for how heavily it polices the lives of Kashmiris, remains. 印度的直接统治压制了其控制的克什米尔地区的动荡。投票也在去年恢复。但对莫迪领导的政党的不满情绪依然存在,尤其是针对该党对克什米尔人生活的严厉监管。 Mujib Mashal是时报南亚分社社长,负责领导印度及其周边地区的报道,包括孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和不丹。 Anupreeta Das为时报报道印度和南亚新闻。她常驻新德里。 Pragati K.B.是时报驻新德里记者,报道印度各地新闻。 翻译:晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
ELISABETTA POVOLEDO, JASON HOROWITZ, EMMA BUBOLA, MOTOKO RICH, ELIZABETH DIAS2025年5月9日周四,新教宗良十四世在圣伯多禄大教堂的阳台上。 Gianni Cipriano for The New York Times Robert Francis Prevost was elected on Thursday to lead the world’s 1.4 billion Roman Catholics, making him the first pope from the United States. He chose the name Leo XIV. 周四,罗伯特·弗朗西斯·普雷沃斯特当选为全球14亿罗马天主教徒的领袖,成为首位来自美国的教宗。他选择了良十四世(Leo XIV)作为自己的名号。 Speaking from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, the pope delivered his first public remarks since taking over as leader of the Roman Catholic Church. He urged the world to seek peace and remember those who suffer. 新教宗在圣伯多禄大教堂的阳台上发表了他接任罗马天主教会领袖以来的首次公开讲话。他呼吁全世界寻求和平,不要忘记那些受苦的人。 Here’s what to know about the new pope, how he was chosen from the many contenders, and the issues he will face as the successor to Pope Francis, who died last month at 88. 以下是关于新教宗的相关信息,包括他如何从众多候选人中脱颖而出,以及作为接替上个月去世、享年88岁的教宗方济各的继任者,他将面临哪些问题。 Who is the new pope? 新教宗是谁? Robert Francis Prevost, 69, was born in Chicago and served for two decades in Peru, where he became a bishop and a naturalized citizen, then rose to lead his international religious order. Leading up to the death of his predecessor, Cardinal Prevost held one of the most influential Vatican posts, running the office that selects and manages bishops globally. 69岁的罗伯特·弗朗西斯·普雷沃斯特出生于芝加哥,在秘鲁任职二十年。在那里,他成为了一名主教,并加入秘鲁国籍,之后晋升为其所在的国际修会的领导人。在他的前任去世前,普雷沃斯特枢机担任着梵蒂冈最具影响力的职位之一,负责在全球范围内选拔和管理主教的机构。 A member of the Order of St. Augustine, he resembles Francis in his commitment to the poor and migrants, and to meeting people where they are. He told the Vatican’s official news website last year that “the bishop is not supposed to be a little prince sitting in his kingdom.” 作为圣奥斯定修会的成员,他致力于帮助穷人、关注移民,并走到民众中间,这一点与方济各相似。去年他在梵蒂冈官方新闻网站上表示:“主教不应该像一个坐在自己王国里的小王子。” He has spent much of his life outside the United States. Ordained in 1982 at 27, he received a doctorate in canon law at the Pontifical University of St. Thomas Aquinas in Rome. In Peru, he was a missionary, parish priest, teacher and bishop. As the Augustinians’ leader, he visited orders around the world. He also speaks Spanish and Italian. 他人生的大部分时间都在美国之外度过。1982年,27岁的普雷沃斯特获授神职,随后在罗马的圣托马斯·阿奎那宗座大学获得了教会法博士学位。在秘鲁,他曾担任传教士、教区神父、神学院教师和主教。作为奥斯定修会的领袖,他访问过世界各地的修会。他还会说西班牙语和意大利语。 Where does he stand on major issues? 他在重大问题上的立场是什么? Often described as reserved and discreet, he would depart stylistically from Francis as pope. Supporters believe he will most likely continue the consultative process started by Francis to invite lay people to meet with bishops. 人们常说他为人矜持、谨慎,作为教宗,他的风格会与方济各有所不同。支持者认为,他很可能会延续方济各发起的协商程序,邀请平信徒与主教会面。 It is unclear whether he will be as open to gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender Catholics as Francis was. Although he has not said much recently, in a 2012 address to bishops, he lamented that Western news media and popular culture fostered “sympathy for beliefs and practices that are at odds with the Gospel.” He cited the “homosexual lifestyle” and “alternative families comprised of same-sex partners and their adopted children.” 目前尚不清楚他是否会像方济各那样对同性恋、双性恋和跨性别天主教徒持开放态度。尽管最近没有对此过多表态,但在2012年对主教们的一次讲话中,他哀叹西方新闻媒体和流行文化助长了“对与福音相悖的信仰和行为的同情”。他提到了“同性恋生活方式”以及“由同性伴侣及其领养的孩子组成的另类家庭”。 As an American, he is uniquely positioned to stand in contrast to the energized conservative Catholicism in his home country. He has pushed back forcefully against the militant vision of Christian power that the Trump administration has elevated. 美国人的身份使他与在其祖国兴盛的保守派天主教形成了鲜明对比。他有力地反对了特朗普政府所推崇的基督教权力的激进理念。 一位手持美国国旗的主教在圣伯多禄广场起舞。 Before he became pope, a social media account under his name shared criticisms of the Trump administration’s positions on immigration. 在成为教宗之前,一个以他名义开设的社交媒体账号分享了对特朗普政府移民立场的批评。 Like many other leaders of the Catholic Church, he has drawn criticism over his dealings with priests accused of sexual abuse. 与许多其他天主教会领袖一样,他因对神职人员性侵指控问题的处理受到批评。 Who chose the new pope? 新教宗是由谁选出的? Francis’ successor was selected in a conclave that began on May 7. Cardinals, known as the “princes of the church,” rank just below the pope in the Roman Catholic Church; together, they are known as the College of Cardinals. There are currently 252 cardinals. Only those under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, and there are 135 of them, the largest number in the church’s history. Pope Francis appointed about 80 percent of them. 方济各的继任者是在5月7日开始的秘密会议中选出的。被称为“教会亲王”枢机主教们在罗马天主教会中的地位仅次于教宗;他们合称为枢机团。目前枢机主教有252名。只有年龄在80岁以下的枢机主教有投票资格,这样的枢机主教有135名,这是教会历史上人数最多的一次。这些枢机主教中约80%由方济各教宗任命。 When a pope dies or steps down — which is unusual — the college chooses a successor. The cardinals cast repeated votes until there is a two-thirds majority. After every vote, the ballot papers are burned in a stove, along with an additive that produces a color. The smoke is released through a chimney that can be seen from St. Peter’s Square, where crowds typically gather to watch and wait. If a vote ends without a two-thirds majority, the smoke is black. When a decision is reached, the smoke is white. 当一位教宗去世或退位时——后者并不常见——枢机团会选出一位继任者。枢机主教们会反复投票,直到获得三分之二多数票。每次投票后,选票会在一个炉子里焚烧,同时会添加一种物质,焚烧产生的烟雾会通过烟囱排出,从圣伯多禄广场就能看到。如果投票没有产生三分之二多数的结果,烟是黑色的。产生了结果后,烟是白色的。 How long did it take for him to be elected? 他的当选花了多长时间? The length of papal conclaves has varied widely over the centuries. Since 1900, this has been the fifth pope to be elected in two days. 几个世纪以来,教宗选举秘密会议的时长差异很大。他是自1900年以来第五位在两天内当选的教宗。 The longest conclave during that time took 14 ballots, lasted five days and produced Pope Pius XI in 1922. Francis was elected after two days of voting. 这段时间里最长的一次秘密会议是在1922年,进行了14轮投票,持续了五天,最终选出了庇护十一世教宗。方济各是在经过两天的投票后当选的。 The shortest conclave, the election of Pope Pius XII in 1939, took three ballots. But it has not always been so quick: The conclave that ended with the election of Pope Gregory X on Sept. 1, 1271, took two years, nine months and two days. 最短的一次秘密会议是1939年庇护十二世教宗的选举,只进行了三轮投票。但并非每次选举都如此迅速:1271年9月1日,选举格列高利十世教宗的秘密会议历时两年零九个月零两天。 What are the key issues in the Catholic Church? 天主教会面临的关键问题是什么? The cardinals had to decide whether to choose a pope who would follow Francis’ path of openness and inclusion or pick a pontiff who would forge a different one. During his 12-year pontificate, Francis made landmark declarations that encouraged liberals, including allowing the blessing of people in same-sex unions and raising his voice for migrants. 枢机主教们必须决定是选择一位遵循方济各开放和包容路线的教宗,还是挑选一位会开辟不同道路的教宗。在12年的任期内,方济各发表了具有里程碑意义的声明,鼓励了自由主义者,包括允许为同性伴侣关系举行祝福仪式,以及为移民发声。 The cardinals who elect the pope sometimes look as ideologically polarized as many secular voters around the globe. Many conservative Roman Catholic leaders disagreed with Francis. 选举教宗的枢机主教们在意识形态上有时像全球许多世俗选民一样两极分化。许多保守的罗马天主教领袖不同意方济各的观点。 But the typical divisions between progressives and conservatives don’t correspond so neatly with the ideological battles within the Vatican and the broader church. There are complex debates over the role of women and L.G.B.T.Q. Catholics in the church, whether priests should be allowed to marry, accountability for sexual abuse by clergy and other divisive questions. 但进步派和保守派之间的典型分歧并不能简单地对应梵蒂冈以及更广泛的教会内部的意识形态斗争。关于女性和LGBTQ天主教徒在教会中的角色、是否应该允许神父结婚、神职人员性侵问题的问责等其他有争议的问题存在复杂的辩论。 新当选的教宗良十四世在圣伯多禄大教堂的阳台发表讲话。 Elisabetta Povoledo是时报驻罗马记者,负责报道意大利、梵蒂冈及周边地区的文化。她从事新闻工作已有35年。 Jason Horowitz是时报罗马分社社长,负责报道意大利、梵蒂冈、希腊和其他南欧地区。 Emma Bubola是时报驻罗马记者。 Motoko Rich是驻东京记者,领导时报对日本新闻的报道。 Elizabeth Dias是时报国内宗教记者,负责报道信仰、政治和价值观。 翻译:经雷 点击查看本文英文版。
HANNAH BEECH2025年5月9日周三,中国士兵在胡志明市参加阅兵式,纪念越南战争结束50周年。 Linh Pham for The New York Times Fifty years ago, my father, an American war reporter, climbed over the wall of the U.S. Embassy in Saigon and scrambled onto a chopper that took off from a roof in the mission. 五十年前,我的父亲,一名美国战地记者,翻过美国驻西贡大使馆的围墙,爬上了一架从使馆屋顶起飞的直升机。 “My last view of Saigon was through the tail door of the helicopter,” he wrote in the Chicago Daily News. “Then the door closed — closed on the most humiliating chapter in American history.” “我最后一次看到西贡是通过直升机的尾舱门,”他在《芝加哥每日新闻》上写道。“然后,门关上了——美国历史上最耻辱的一章就此合上了。” My father believed in the domino theory, how a cascade of Communism might deluge Asia. A veteran of World War II, he wrote a book titled, without much irony, “Not Without the Americans.” 我父亲相信多米诺骨牌理论,认为共产主义洪流可能会席卷亚洲。作为第二次世界大战的老兵,他写了一本书,名为《不能没有美国人》(Not Without the Americans)的书,这其中并无多少讽刺意味。 1975年4月,美国驻越南西贡大使馆,左侧穿白衬衫、戴眼镜的是凯耶斯·比奇。 The title seems an anachronism, from a time when paternalistic Americans, confident in their own flawed democracy, envisioned a world shaped in their own image. Half a century after the pullout of the last American troops from Vietnam, it’s clear how Asia is learning to live, if not without the Americans, then with a new great power: China. 这本书的名字在今天似乎已经不合时宜,因为在那个时代,带着家长式优越感的美国人对自己存在缺陷的民主充满信心,企图按照自己的形象塑造世界。在最后一批美国军队从越南撤出半个世纪后,很明显,亚洲正在学着适应一种新的现实,即便不是全然摆脱了美国的影响,也已然学会与另一个大国共处:中国。 Beijing’s imprint is everywhere, from the contested waters of the South China Sea, where delicate coral reefs have been churned up to build Chinese military bases, to remote villages in Nepal, where Chinese goods are flooding markets via Chinese-built roads. 北京的印记无处不在,在有争议的南海水域,脆弱的珊瑚礁被用来建造中国的军事基地;在尼泊尔的偏远村庄,中国商品正通过中国修建的道路涌入当地市场。 一艘中国海警船向一艘菲律宾海军租用船只发射水炮,该船去年正在为驻扎在南海第二托马斯浅滩的部队执行例行补给任务。 President Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs, the blunting of American diplomacy and the dismantling of the agency for American aid — and with it hundreds of programs in Asia — feels like yet another withdrawal, and one that was not even compelled by military force. 特朗普总统在关税问题上的反复,美国外交影响力的减弱,以及美国援助机构的解散(还包括该机构在亚洲的数百个项目)让人感觉像是又一次撤退,而且这一次甚至不是迫于军事压力。 When an earthquake struck Myanmar in late March, killing more than 3,700 people, the United States was far slower than China in sending assistance. Then it fired American aid workers while they were on the ground there. 3月下旬,缅甸发生地震,造成3700多人死亡,美国的援助速度比中国慢了不少。然后,美国还解雇了正在当地工作的美国援助人员。 “America used to stand for hope and democracy, but now they are missing when we needed them most,” said Ko Aung Naing San, a resident of Sagaing, the earthquake’s devastated epicenter. “China sent help quickly.” “美国曾经代表着希望和民主,但现在,在我们最需要他们的时候,他们却不见了,”地震震中实皆的居民昂奈桑说。“中国迅速提供了帮助。” But in his next breath, Mr. Aung Naing San questioned Beijing’s intentions in Myanmar. He worried about China plundering Myanmar’s natural resources and pleaded for the United States to help. When a military junta overthrew the country’s elected leaders four years ago, a pro-democracy resistance begged for America to do something, anything, to repel the dictators. 但昂奈桑随后对北京在缅甸的意图提出质疑。他担心中国会掠夺缅甸的自然资源,并请求美国提供帮助。四年前,一个军政府推翻了缅甸的民选领导人时,一个支持民主的抵抗组织曾经恳求美国做点什么,哪怕做点什么也好,来击退独裁者。 Washington will not intervene in Myanmar; another Southeast Asian quagmire is the last thing any U.S. administration wants. But American ideals and images, even when its bedrock institutions may be under threat at home, continue to resonate overseas: Hollywood, bluejeans, gauzy notions of freedom. 华盛顿不会插手缅甸事务——对于任何一届美国政府而言,最不愿意看到的局面是自己陷入另一个东南亚泥潭。但是,美国的理想和形象,即使当它的基本制度可能在国内受到威胁的时候,仍然能在海外引起共鸣:好莱坞、牛仔裤、那些朦胧的自由概念。 In March, I interviewed Gen. Chhum Socheat, the deputy defense minister of Cambodia. The United States had helped refurbish parts of a military base there, but the Cambodian government later turned to China instead for a complete modernization. The American construction was razed, and in early April, the Chinese-built facility was unveiled with Chinese military officers in attendance. 今年3月,我采访了柬埔寨国防部副部长素切特将军。美国曾帮助翻新当地一个军事基地的部分设施,但柬埔寨政府后来转而求助于中国进行全面的现代化改造。美国建造的设施被夷为平地,4月初,中国军官出席了这座中国建造设施的揭幕仪式。 两艘军舰停泊在柬埔寨南部海岸附近的里姆海军基地码头(中)。今年4月,柬埔寨正式启用了由中国翻新的海军基地,引起了美国的关注。 As we were walking out of the interview, General Chhum Socheat, who had spent an hour defending Cambodia’s authoritarian leaders, patted my arm gently. 当我们走出采访现场时,花了一个小时为柬埔寨独裁领导人辩护的素切特轻轻地拍了拍我的手臂。 “Your American democracy, it is a little difficult now?” he inquired with surprising concern. “你们美国的民主,现在有点困难了吗?”他带着令人吃惊的关切问道。 I made an ambiguous noise. He pressed on. 我含糊地应了一声。他并未就此打住。 Cambodia, he said, was still recovering from the destruction of the Khmer Rouge years, during which radical Communists razed the society and oversaw the deaths of up to one-fifth of the country’s population. 他说,柬埔寨仍在从红色高棉统治时期的破坏中恢复。在红色高棉统治期间,激进的共产党人将柬埔寨社会夷为废墟,导致全国五分之一的人口死亡。 “We are developing our democracy, like America, but first we need peace and stability,” he said. 他说:“我们正在像美国一样发展民主,但首先我们需要和平与稳定。” I doubt that Cambodia, where a hereditary dictatorship has erased the political opposition and kneecapped free speech, is truly on a democratic trajectory. And one reason that Cambodians embraced the Khmer Rouge in 1975 was a brutal American bombing campaign that spilled over from the Vietnam War. 在柬埔寨,一个世袭独裁政权抹杀了政治反对派,扼杀了言论自由,我怀疑它是否真的走上了民主的轨道。1975年,柬埔寨人接受红色高棉的一个原因是,在越南战争期间,美国的残酷轰炸蔓延到了柬埔寨。 Still, the deputy defense minister’s reference to American democracy meant something enduring about ideals. General Chhum Socheat said he wished America well, and he urged me to believe, against significant evidence otherwise, that Cambodia wanted to be with the Americans, too. 尽管如此,国防部副部长对美国民主的提及意味着一些关于理想的持久的东西。素切特说,他希望美国人一切顺利,他劝我相信,柬埔寨也希望与美国人站在一起,尽管有大量证据表明并非如此。 About 25 years ago, shortly before the previous big anniversary of the Americans’ departure from what is now Ho Chi Minh City, I met with Pham Xuan An, a Vietnamese reporting colleague of my father’s. Uncle An, as he instructed me to call him, sat at a cafe where foreign correspondents, spies and the occasional novelist like Graham Greene used to sip thick coffees sweetened with condensed milk. 大约25年前,在美国人从现在的胡志明撤离的上一个重大周年纪念日前夕,我遇到了范春隐,他是我父亲的一位越南记者同事。隐叔——他让我这样称呼他——坐在一家咖啡馆里,外国记者、间谍和偶尔出现的小说家(比如格雷厄姆·格林),常在这里喝加了炼乳的浓咖啡。 范春隐,2005年摄于胡志明市,他曾是美国新闻周刊《时代》的越战记者,过着为北越担任高级间谍的双重生活。他于2006年去世,享年79岁。 He breathed raggedly from emphysema, the same smoking-related disease that had killed my father years before. Uncle An wore a big watch on his thin wrist, a gift from my father, he said. 他因肺气肿而呼吸急促,数年前,我父亲也是死于这种与吸烟有关的疾病。隐叔瘦削的手腕上戴着一块大手表,他说那是我父亲送给他的礼物。 “Mr. Beech was a patriot,” he said, pronouncing the word in the French way. ”比奇先生是一个爱国者,”他用法语发音说出我父亲的姓氏。 Uncle An, too, was a patriot. He worked as a correspondent for Time magazine, but secretly held the rank of colonel in the North Vietnamese Army, sending intelligence to the Communists by invisible ink. He believed that Vietnam should strive for true independence, not be a pawn in an imperial game. 隐叔也是一个爱国者。他曾是《时代》杂志的记者,暗地里却是北越军队的上校,他用隐形墨水向共产党人传递情报。他认为越南应该争取真正的独立,而不是成为帝国博弈的棋子。 Despite his years of loyal spying, Uncle An may have been tainted by his long association with Americans. His career in the Socialist Republic of Vietnam never quite reached the heights he had hoped. His son studied in the United States, just as he had once, then returned home. 尽管隐叔多年来一直忠诚从事地从事间谍活动,但可能因为长期与美国人打交道而受到影响。他在越南社会主义共和国的事业从未达到他所希望的高度。他的儿子在美国学习,就像曾经的他那样,然后回了国。 One day in the closing days of the Vietnam War, Uncle An told me, my father had wanted to go to a battlefield. A former U.S. Marine, my father was drawn to the trenches, filled with young men drafted into a war that was already curdling into a byword for American defeat. Uncle An told my father to go somewhere else. 隐叔告诉我,在越南战争即将结束的一天,我父亲曾想上战场看看。作为一名前美国海军陆战队员,我父亲被战壕吸引,那里挤满了被征召入伍的年轻人,这场战争已经成为美国失败的代名词。隐叔叫我父亲去别的地方。 That day, the North Vietnamese attacked the place my father had not gone on Uncle An’s advice. My father lived while American soldiers died. 那天,北越军队袭击了我父亲在隐叔的劝告下没有去的那个地方。我父亲活了下来,美国士兵死去了。 “I like Americans,” Uncle An said. “我喜欢美国人,”隐叔说。 Hannah Beech是《纽约时报》记者,常驻曼谷。她报道亚洲新闻超过25年,主要报道深度和调查新闻。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
王亚秋2025年5月9日 In 2014, the Chinese writer known as Murong Xuecun announced in an essay in The New York Times that he was returning to China to turn himself in to the police. Two weeks earlier, the authorities had arrested three of Mr. Murong’s friends in Beijing after they attended a small private gathering to commemorate the 1989 Tiananmen demonstrations. Mr. Murong believed he, too, would have been arrested at that event if he had not been in Australia at the time. Once he flew back to China, he posted a message online announcing he was ready to be picked up. 2014年,中国作家慕容雪村在《纽约时报》发文宣布,他将回国向警方自首。这篇文章刊出的两周前,慕容雪村的三名朋友在北京参加了一个纪念1989年天安门抗议活动的小型私人聚会后,当局逮捕了他们。慕容雪村认为,如果当时他不在澳大利亚的话,也会在那次聚会上被捕。飞回中国后,他在网上发贴,宣布已做好被警察带走的准备。 For over a decade, I have worked for international human rights organizations and been an advocate for the rights of people in China. Mr. Murong was certainly brave, but his story is not singular. Many Chinese writers, journalists, civil rights lawyers and others have also chosen to stand up to the ruling Chinese Communist Party, knowing they could end up in prison for doing so. 十多年来,我一直在为国际人权组织工作,积极倡导中国人民的权利。慕容雪村无疑是勇敢的,但他的故事并非个例。许多中国的作家、记者、维权律师和其他人士也选择站出来,勇敢反对执政的中国共产党,尽管他们知道这样做可能会导致自己被捕入狱。 I, too, have suffered repercussions: The Chinese authorities have monitored my activities here in the United States and used internet trolls to harass me online. Periodically, the party has menaced my family in China as a way to pressure me to end my work. 我的工作也让我受到了负面影响:中国当局一直对我在美国的活动进行监视,使用网络喷子在网上骚扰我。中共还不时威胁我在中国的家人,以此迫使我停止工作。 More and more Americans are now, perhaps for the first time in their lives, facing threats from their own government for simply doing their job, speaking their mind or protesting. As someone with experience challenging one of the world’s most ruthless and powerful governments, I have one important piece of advice to share: Show courage. This is not simply a display of moral strength. It is also an effective strategy for fighting back against creeping authoritarianism. 现在,越来越多的美国人正面临来自政府的威胁——这也许是他们有生以来的第一次——仅因履职尽责、畅所欲言或参与抗议就遭此境遇。作为世界上最残暴、最强大政府之一的反抗者,我要分享一条重要的经验:展示勇气。这不只是一种道德力量的展示,更是反击慢慢加剧的威权主义的有效策略。 It is human to want to protect yourself, even at the expense of your principles, to avoid potential reprisals. I saw this after President Trump issued executive orders denouncing diversity, equity and inclusion programs as well as those focused on democracy promotion and civic society. In response, some advocacy organizations scrubbed mentions of D.E.I. from their websites and rewrote program descriptions to tie democracy promotion to Mr. Trump’s “America First” agenda. 为了自保,甚至不惜牺牲原则,以避免潜在的报复,这是人之常情。在特朗普总统发布行政命令,谴责多元化、公平和包容性项目(简称DEI)以及那些专注于促进民主和公民社会的项目后,我亲眼见证了这一幕。一些倡导组织作出的回应是,把它们网站上与DEI有关的内容删掉,改写促进民主项目的描述,将其与特朗普的“美国优先”议程联系起来。 Similarly, companies including household names such as Target, Walmart and Meta pre-emptively scaled back D.E.I. programs. I was disappointed. Americans are known globally for their defiance of authority. But I also understood. Fear is powerful. 类似地,包括塔吉特、沃尔玛、Meta在内的家喻户晓的公司也先发制人地缩减了DEI项目。我对这种做法感到失望。美国人在世界上出了名的蔑视权威。但我也能理解。恐惧的力量实在强大。 Such obedience comes from a place of weakness, not strength. In Chinese, there is an idiom to describe how the government operates: “qi’ruan pa’ying,” or “bully the weak and fear the strong.” The Communist Party in China has long acted like a street bully. But the party rarely rewards submission with benevolence. 但在恐惧下顺服是因为软弱,而不是力量。中文有一个描述政府行事逻辑的成语:“欺软怕硬”。中共长期以来的行为与街头恶霸一样。但中共也很少用仁慈来奖励顺从者。 When we hear stories about outspoken activists who are now in jail, we might assume that it is safer to stay quiet. But this is not so. What we may not see or hear are the stories of dissenters who have done seemingly nothing at all, and have still been punished. 每当听到直言不讳的活动人士身陷囹圄,我们或许会认为沉默是更安全的选择。但情况并非如此。那些看似什么都没做的异议者同样难逃惩处的故事往往不为人知。 Over the years, I have received numerous messages from people across China saying that they had been unjustly treated by the government but did not want to make this injustice public out of fear. 多年来,我收到过无数来自中国各地的信息,他们说自己受到了政府的不公正对待,但出于恐惧,不愿将这种不公正待遇公之于众。 I have seen bullies respond to strength, even in the case of the Chinese Communist Party, which commands arguably the world’s most sophisticated system of repression. It is costly, both in resources and reputation, to censor, try to intimidate and prosecute people on trumped-up charges. Once you demonstrate that you are not easily cowed, and will be a persistent headache, the bully may simply drop you as a target. 我见过霸凌者在力量面前退缩,即使是像中国共产党这样,掌控着也许是世界上最复杂压制系统的政权也是如此。审查、试图恐吓和以莫须有的罪名控告人是要付出代价的,不仅资源消耗巨大,也会损害声誉。你一旦展示自己不会轻易被吓倒,会不停地制造麻烦的话,霸道者也许会不再把你作为打击目标。 In the case of Mr. Murong, two days after his online post, the police summoned him for interrogation. And yet they decided not to arrest him. Mr. Murong’s audacity had stirred a wave of public attention. My guess is that the party determined that the negative publicity of an arrest would not be worth the deterrent effect. 以慕容雪村为例,他把帖子发到网上两天后,警察传唤他进行询问。但他们决定不逮捕他。慕容雪村的大胆做法已在公众中引起了一波关注。我猜中共认为将他逮捕所带来的负面报道与逮捕产生的威慑力相比得不偿失。 That said, fighting back does not guarantee a tormentor will retreat. Many critics of the Chinese government have gone to prison. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo died in police custody in 2017. 话虽这样说,反抗并不能保证施虐者退缩。许多批评中国政府的人都已身陷囹圄。诺贝尔和平奖获得者刘晓波在被警方羁押期间于2017年去世。 My experience working with victims of Chinese government abuses is that when the Communist Party’s iron fist first punches them, most people freeze and submit — but gradually, many will stand up, because of an innate sense of right and wrong. Some will become extraordinary human rights activists. 根据我与中国政府暴行受害者打交道的经验,当第一次被中共的铁拳击中时,大多数人会被吓到并屈服——但渐渐地,良知会激励许多人站起来。有些人会因此成为出色的维权活动人士。 Standing up can restore one’s sense of dignity and offer an important sense of internal liberation. The Chinese activist Wang Qiaoling faced horrendous harassment, including police surveillance and evictions, for speaking out about the abduction and detention of her husband, the human rights lawyer Li Heping. Still, Ms. Wang later said she had no regrets. 挺身而出能让人重拾尊严,更能带来一种内心得到解放的重要感觉。中国活动人士王峭岭曾面临可怕的骚扰,包括遭警方监视、被警察赶出租房,只是因为她揭露了自己的丈夫、人权律师李和平被绑架和拘留的情况。尽管如此,王峭岭后来说,她一点都不后悔。 I am witnessing something similar unfolding in America. Though some institutions and individuals initially caved to Mr. Trump, a growing number are standing up: Once Harvard stood firm, other university presidents vowed not to be strong-armed by the administration. After the first law firms cut deals with the administration, some lawyers resigned from those firms in protest. 我正在目睹类似情形在美国上演。尽管一些机构和个人最初屈服了特朗普,但越来越多的人正在站起来:哈佛大学表示不让步后,其他大学的校长们也发誓不屈服于政府的高压政策。第一批律师事务所与政府达成协议后,一些律师愤而辞职表达抗议。 Jennifer Vasquez Sura, the wife of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador by the Trump administration, has emerged as a fierce advocate for her husband. “If God threw me in this, I know he’s going to take me out of it. So this is God’s battle. And I’m going to fight it, for Kilmar and for everyone,” she told The Washington Post in April. I’ve heard words like these many times from the families of persecuted individuals in China — voices shaped by pain, yet grounded in resolve. 马里兰州居民基尔马·阿布雷戈·加西亚遭特朗普政府错误驱逐到萨尔瓦多,他的妻子詹妮弗·巴斯克斯·苏拉已成为丈夫的坚定支持者。“如果上帝让我卷入此劫,必会指引我脱困。所以这是上帝的战斗。我要战斗下去,为了基尔马,为了所有人,”她今年4月接受《华盛顿邮报》采访时这样说。我已从中国受迫害者家属的嘴里多次听到了类似的话——这些声音饱含痛苦,却坚定不移。 The United States has a long tradition of supporting freedom and democracy fighters around the world, me included. I still believe in the promise of this nation. And so I offer you a Chinese blessing, Americans: Jiayou! Don’t give up! 美国素有支持世界各地自由民主斗士的悠久传统,其中包括我本人在内。我仍然相信这个国家的承诺。所以,我用一种中国的说法来激励美国人民:加油!不要放弃! 王亚秋是中国人权研究者和倡导者。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
PAUL SONNE, DAVID PIERSON2025年5月9日俄罗斯总统普京和中国领导人习近平周四在克里姆林宫。 Pool photo by Yuri Kochetkov President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping, the leader of China, issued a joint rebuke to Washington on Thursday, a day before celebrations in Moscow to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. 俄罗斯总统普京和中国国家主席习近平周四发表联合声明谴责美国。莫斯科将在周五举行纪念苏联在第二次世界大战中战胜纳粹德国80周年的庆祝活动。 The leaders held talks at the Kremlin, part of a state visit that Moscow organized for Mr. Xi before his attendance alongside other foreign leaders on Friday at a military parade in Red Square. 两国领导人在克里姆林宫举行了会谈,这是莫斯科为习近平的国事访问安排的活动之一,习近平还将在周五与其他外国领导人一起出席红场的阅兵式。 In a joint statement issued after their talks, Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi rejected what they described as Washington’s attempt to contain them. They vowed to “increase interaction and strengthen cooperation” to counter such U.S. efforts. 在会谈后发表的联合声明中,普京和习近平驳斥了所谓美国“双遏制”企图。他们誓言“中俄将加强协调配合”,以应对美国的这一企图。 Both Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi are grappling with the unpredictability of President Trump — the Russian president in talks over Ukraine, and the Chinese leader in a bruising trade war. Each has sought to present their countries as alternative world powers looking to bring about what they call a more equal, multipolar world in the face of U.S. hegemony. 普京和习近平都在设法应对美国总统特朗普的不可预测性。对俄罗斯总统来说,这个问题表现在乌克兰问题的和平谈判上。对中国领导人来说,这事关一场激烈的贸易战。他们都试图将自己的国家描绘为替代美国的世界大国,在美国霸权面前寻求建立一个所谓更平等的多极世界。 Part of their message Thursday seemed to be that they would stand together, even as Mr. Trump embraces Mr. Putin but pressures Mr. Xi. 他们在周四传递的部分信息似乎是,就在特朗普与普京拉关系,同时向习近平施压的时候,他们将肩并肩地站在一起。 After the talks, Mr. Xi spoke pointedly of the importance of the two leaders remaining trusting friends. 习近平在会谈结束后专门谈了两国领导人保持互信的重要性。 The Russian and Chinese leaders also jointly called Mr. Trump’s plans for a “Golden Dome” missile defense shield over the United States “deeply destabilizing,” arguing in their joint statement that such new U.S. defenses would weaponize space. 俄中领导人还在联合声明中表示,特朗普计划在美国上空部署“金色穹顶”导弹防御系统“破坏全球战略稳定”,他们在联合声明中还指出,美国的这种新防御系统将使太空武器化。 Mr. Trump has employed some of the same nationalist grievance politics and disinformation strategies that Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi have used to cement their power at home, but has failed to reach a deal with either leader since returning to the White House. 为巩固他们在国内的权力,普京和习近平使用了民族主义民怨政治和虚假信息,特朗普也在使用一些相同的东西,但自从返回白宫以来,他还未能与这两位领导人达成协议。 Talks with Moscow over the war in Ukraine are continuing but have not curbed the fighting there. U.S. officials are set to begin trade negotiations in Switzerland this week with their Chinese counterparts, as the trade war threatens economic growth. 美国就乌克兰战争与俄罗斯的谈判仍在继续,但还没有带来控制战火的结果。随着贸易战威胁到经济增长,美国官员本周将在瑞士与中国官员开始贸易谈判。 In Moscow, the summit took place as Mr. Putin began welcoming what the Kremlin expects to be more than 25 world leaders to the Red Square celebrations. The guests include a veritable “Who’s Who” of authoritarians, with the presidents of Venezuela, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea and Belarus expected to attend. 中俄首脑在莫斯科举行会晤之际,普京还开始欢迎出席红场庆祝活动的世界各国领导人,克里姆林宫预计将有逾25名外国领导人参加,其中有属于不折不扣的威权者“名人录”的嘉宾,预计包括委内瑞拉、古巴、赤道几内亚以及白俄罗斯领导人。 But none of the leaders is more important to Moscow than Mr. Xi. 但没有哪位领导人比习近平对莫斯科更重要。 Russia’s isolation from the West over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has dramatically increased Moscow’s dependence on Beijing. China has supported Mr. Putin’s war effort by buying Russian oil, supplying dual-use components for Russian equipment and replacing departed Western brands with Chinese consumer goods. Beijing, however, has stopped short of overt military intervention or support. 俄罗斯因为全面入侵乌克兰而遭到西方孤立,这大大增加了莫斯科对北京的依赖。中国通过购买俄罗斯石油、为俄罗斯装备提供军民两用的零部件,以及用中国消费品取代从俄罗斯市场撤走的西方品牌来支持普京的战争努力。但中国政府一直没有进行公开的军事干预或支持。 Mr. Xi, in his opening remarks at the Kremlin, described relations between China and Russia today as “more calm, confident, stable and resilient.” 在克里姆林宫会谈前的开场白中,习近平把今日的中俄关系描述为“更加从容自信、稳定坚韧”。 He cast the two leaders as defenders of a fair and just world order. And he evoked their countries’ sacrifices during World War II as a symbol of their strength today to push back against “unilateralism and bullying by powerful countries,” an unmistakable reference to the United States and its trade war against China. 他把两国领导人描述为一个公平公正的世界秩序的捍卫者。他还提了各自国家在“二战”中做出的牺牲,将其作为两国今天有能力反击“单边主义逆流和强权霸凌行径”的象征,这明显是指美国及其对中国发动的贸易战。 Mr. Putin described Moscow’s close ties with Beijing as a “stabilizing factor in the international arena,” despite what he called a difficult geopolitical situation. He also said nearly all trade between Russia and China had migrated to rubles and yuan, as opposed to dollars, protecting the nations “from the influence of third countries.” 普京把莫斯科与北京的密切关系描述为“国际舞台上的稳定因素”,尽管他表示地缘政治局势严峻。他还说,俄中两国之间的几乎所有贸易都已变成使用卢布和人民币结算,而不是使用美元,保护了两国“不受第三国的影响”。 The two leaders usually sign a raft of bilateral agreements during their one-on-one summits, and Thursday was no exception. 两国领导人通常在举行双边会晤时签署一系列双边协议,周四也不例外。 During the visit, the Russian and Chinese space agencies signed a joint memo on the construction of a power plant on the moon, according to the Russian state news agency Tass. The nations will require a power source for a permanent lunar research base they are seeking to build and have said they want to construct an automated nuclear reactor. 据俄罗斯国家通讯社塔斯社报道,俄罗斯和中国的航天机构在这次访问期间签署了在月球上建造发电站的联合备忘录。两国正寻求在月球上建一个永久性研究基地,它们需要为这个基地提供电源,并已表示它们想建一座自动化的核反应堆。 The Soviet Union lost some 27 million people during World War II, making the memory of the conflict one of the most powerful and emotional forces in Russian life. 苏联在“二战”期间损失了约2700万人,让有关这场战争的记忆成为俄罗斯人生活中最具影响力和情感冲击力的力量之一。 Mr. Putin has manipulated that memory to energize his troops, falsely accusing President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who is Jewish, of reviving Nazism. Russian forces fighting in Ukraine have been told they must make sacrifices like their forebears did during World War II to once again rid the world of a fascist threat. 普京已利用这个记忆来激励他的军队,诬陷身为犹太人的乌克兰总统泽连斯基复活纳粹主义。在乌克兰作战的俄罗斯军人被告知,必须做出“二战”先辈那样的牺牲,再次让世界摆脱法西斯的威胁。 At the outset of the talks, Mr. Putin said that Russia and China “oppose modern manifestations of neo-Nazism and militarism,” a clear reference by the Russian leader to his crusade against Ukraine. 普京在会谈开始时说,俄罗斯和中国“反对新纳粹主义和军国主义的现代表现形式”,这名俄罗斯领导人显然是在暗指他对乌克兰发动的战争。 Moscow’s commemoration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany comes more than three years after Mr. Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine and reordered Russian society with a level of repression, militarism and control over official narratives unseen since the days of the Soviet Union. 莫斯科的这次纪念苏联战胜纳粹德国的活动是在普京发动了全面入侵乌克兰战争的三年多后举行的。他以苏联解体以来未曾见过的高度镇压、军国主义以及控制官方叙事的手法重塑了俄罗斯社会。 Zixu Wang自香港对本文有研究贡献。 Paul Sonne是一名国际新闻记者,报道俄罗斯新闻和普京的国内和国际政策产生的一系列影响,主要关注乌克兰战争。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
PATRICIA COHEN2025年5月8日中国国家主席习近平去年11月在摩洛哥卡萨布兰卡与王储穆莱·哈桑举行会晤。 Li Xueren/Xinhua, via Getty Images When Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, returned from the Group of 20 summit in Brazil last November, he made a stopover in Casablanca, where he was greeted with dates and milk, the traditional welcome for honored guests, and a meeting with Crown Prince Moulay Hassan of Morocco. 去年11月,中国最高领导人习近平在巴西参加完二十国集团领导人峰后归国,途中在卡萨布兰卡停留。在那里,他受到了椰枣和牛奶的款待——这是对贵宾的传统欢迎方式,并且还会见了摩洛哥王储穆莱·哈桑。 The brief visit was a sign of the growing economic ties between China and Morocco, the largest automotive manufacturing hub in Africa and an increasingly crucial conduit for Chinese companies looking to get around tariffs for exports headed to Europe. 短暂的访问表明中国与摩洛哥之间的经济联系日益紧密,摩洛哥是非洲最大的汽车制造中心,也是中国企业希望绕过对欧洲出口关税的一个日益重要的渠道。 In the last couple of years, investment in Morocco from Chinese energy and electric vehicle and battery producers has exploded, with $10 billion directed to that industry, according to one estimate. Dozens of Chinese companies involved in automobile manufacturing are setting up shop in Morocco, including the battery maker Gotion High-tech. 在过去几年里,中国能源、电动汽车和电池生产商在摩洛哥的投资呈爆炸式增长,据估算,有100亿美元投向了这个领域。数十家跟汽车制造相关的中国企业正在摩洛哥设厂,其中包括电池制造商国轩高科。 The boom is a sign of the growing importance of countries like Morocco, which has a free-trade agreement with the European Union, that serve as connective nodes in a global trading system that is remaking itself around an obstacle course of high tariffs, trade restrictions and geopolitical rivalries. 这股投资热潮标志着像摩洛哥——一个与欧盟签有自由贸易协定的国家——这样的国家正变得越来越重要,在布满关税壁垒、贸易限制与地缘政治竞争障碍的赛道上,它们正在成为全球贸易体系重构中的关键节点。 Using their status as low- or no-tariff zones has required connector countries to thread a narrow path, exploiting opportunities for trade while minimizing the risk of alienating the West or China. But now that the Trump administration has kicked the legs out from under the global trading system, that road has become much more precarious. 作为低关税或零关税区,这些充当接口的国家不得不在夹缝中求生存:既要把握贸易机遇,又要避免得罪中西方任何一方。但现在,特朗普政府已经令全球贸易体系彻底瘫痪,这条路变得越来越难走。 雷诺在丹吉尔郊区的工厂。这家车企在摩洛哥生产汽车已有20年的历史。 Chinese carmakers, which have surged ahead of many rivals in battery technology, automated driving and entertainment software, have grand ambitions to expand across the globe in Latin America, Asia, Europe and Africa. 中国车企在电池技术、自动驾驶及车载娱乐系统等领域已超越众多竞争对手,如今正雄心勃勃地推进全球布局,扩张版图涵盖拉丁美洲、亚洲、欧洲与非洲市场。 Even before President Trump’s election, the United States and Europe were growing more concerned about how their own electric vehicle industries would ever compete with Chinese companies selling cars at discounted prices. Last year, the Biden administration effectively blocked Chinese E.V.s by putting a 100 percent tariff on them, and the European Union increased its tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to as much as 45 percent. 甚至在特朗普当选总统之前,美国和欧洲就已经越来越担心本国的电动汽车行业该如何与中国车企的低价策略竞争。去年,拜登政府对中国电动汽车征收100%的关税,等同于在美国市场封杀了中国电动汽车,而欧盟也将对中国电动汽车的关税提高到了45%。 These types of trade sand traps have been a boon for countries like Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Morocco, allowing companies to sidestep import duties. In the case of China’s manufacturers, Morocco is a prime connector country to the European Union. 对于墨西哥、越南、泰国、马来西亚、印度、印度尼西亚、土耳其和摩洛哥这样的国家来说,这类贸易障碍给它们带来了机遇,使得企业能够规避进口关税。就中国制造商而言,摩洛哥是连接欧盟的一个重要国家。 Beijing “wants to leverage Morocco’s key advantages,” said Alexandre Kateb, an economist and founder of the Multipolarity Report, a strategic advisory platform. 经济学家、战略咨询平台“多极化报告”创始人亚历山大·卡泰布指出,北京方面“希望充分发挥摩洛哥的关键优势”。 At the doorstep of Europe and Africa, Morocco has been building an “automotive industry ecosystem” for 20 years, Mr. Kateb said. The country has a sophisticated transportation network that includes ports like Tangier-Med and large reserves of phosphates, which are used in producing car batteries. The country also has been moving swiftly to transition to clean energy. 卡泰布表示,坐拥欧非门户区位优势的摩洛哥,20年来持续构建“汽车产业生态体系”。该国拥有完善的交通网络,包括丹吉尔地中海港等港口,以及丰富的磷酸盐储量——这是车用电池的关键原材料。此外,该国正在迅速向清洁能源转型。 Morocco became the leading car exporter to the European Union in 2023, surpassing China, Japan and India, according to Auto World Journal. 据《汽车世界杂志》报道,2023年,摩洛哥超过中国、日本和印度,成为欧盟第一大汽车进口来源国。 摩洛哥制造的汽车准备在丹吉尔地中海港装船出口。该国拥有完善的交通网络。 The French carmaker Renault, drawn by lower labor and energy costs than in Europe, has been manufacturing in the country for more than 20 years. The auto group Stellantis, which owns Chrysler and Jeep, has been expanding its footprint in Morocco since 2019. 受低于欧洲的劳动力与能源成本吸引,法国汽车制造商雷诺在摩洛哥设厂已超20年。旗下拥有克莱斯勒和吉普的斯特兰蒂斯汽车集团,自2019年起亦持续扩大在摩洛哥的业务版图。 “For Chinese automakers, Morocco could now play that same role for Europe” that Mexico did for manufacturers that sought to sidestep U.S. tariffs, said Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. 英国皇家国际事务研究所中东与北非项目的副研究员艾哈迈德·阿布杜表示,当年制造商拿墨西哥来规避美国关税,“对中国车企而言,摩洛哥如今在规避欧洲关税上可扮演同样的角色。” But sharpening tensions between China and the United States as well as China and Europe have created a difficult balancing act for Morocco, where economic and geopolitical concerns do not always align. Washington has raised tariffs on China to as high as 145 percent. 但中美、中欧之间日益紧张的局势给摩洛哥带来了平衡挑战,因为在摩洛哥,经济和地缘政治方面的考量并不总是一致。华盛顿已将对中国的关税提高到高达145%。 The Trump administration could decide to pressure Morocco — possibly by threatening higher tariffs — to take a for-or-against-us stance. 特朗普政府可能会向摩洛哥施压,要求其选边站队——不排除以加征关税相威胁。 Morocco “sees China as a major partner,” Mr. Aboudouh said, but it is “aware of the risk” that Mr. Trump could clamp down on countries that trade with China. 阿布杜说,摩洛哥“视中国为重要的合作伙伴”,但它也“意识到了风险”——特朗普可能会对与中国有贸易往来的国家实施打压。 Chinese loans and investments through its Belt and Road Initiative have helped power Morocco’s economic development, helping to build the kingdom’s infrastructure with projects like a high-speed rail line, solar power plants and a $10 billion tech hub in Tangier. This year, a Chinese company was chosen to provide steel for a planned $26 billion gas pipeline between Nigeria and Morocco. 中国通过“一带一路”倡议提供的贷款与投资,有力推动了摩洛哥经济发展:高铁线路、太阳能电站及丹吉尔百亿美元科技园等项目显著提升了该国基础设施水平。今年,一家中企被选中为价值260亿美元的尼日利亚到摩洛哥的天然气管道供应钢材。 去年9月,中国服装行业代表团访问摩洛哥拉巴特。英国皇家国际事务研究所中东与北非项目的副研究员艾哈迈德·阿布杜表示,摩洛哥“视中国为重要的合作伙伴”。 At the same time, the U.S. strategic partnership is also a priority for Morocco, Mr. Aboudouh said. Morocco engages in military exercises with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and collaborates with the United States on counterterrorism. Morocco would also like to procure American F-35 stealth fighter jets. Morocco won’t welcome China “at the expense of the E.U. and the United States,” he said. 阿布杜表示,摩洛哥同样将与美国的战略伙伴关系列为首要考量。摩洛哥不仅参与北大西洋公约组织的军事演习,还与美国开展反恐合作。它还希望采购美制F-35隐形战机。他说,摩洛哥不会“以牺牲欧盟和美国为代价”来接纳中国。 For Morocco, a priority is Western Sahara, where it has been fighting an independence movement for control for the past 50 years. Mr. Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the region in 2020 in exchange for Morocco’s normalizing relations with Israel, and the government would not want to do anything to endanger that. 对摩洛哥而言,西撒哈拉问题是一个优先事项,过去50年来,它一直在与争取控制权的独立运动作斗争。特朗普在2020年承认摩洛哥对该地区的主权,以换取摩洛哥与以色列的关系正常化,该国政府不会做任何危及这一成果的事情。 Morocco has had a free-trade agreement with the United States for two decades. Mr. Trump has, nonetheless, subjected it to a 10 percent across-the-board tariff that he imposed on virtually all imports. But Morocco has not been threatened with the additional punishing tariff levels directed at nations like Mexico, Vietnam and Thailand. 尽管摩洛哥与美国签订自由贸易协定已20年,特朗普仍对其几乎所有进口商品统一加征10%关税。但相较于墨西哥、越南和泰国等国遭受的惩罚性高关税,摩洛哥尚未受到同等威胁。 Meanwhile, Chinese production continues to ramp up, something that could draw the attention of the Trump administration. In January, a Chinese battery parts manufacturer started pumping out components at a new joint venture in Jorf Lasfar, near Morocco’s deepwater commercial port, part of a $2 billion deal signed in 2023. 与此同时,中国企业在摩洛哥的生产活动仍在不断扩大,这可能会引起特朗普政府的关注。今年1月,一家中国电池零部件制造商在摩洛哥的深水商业港口附近的朱尔夫莱斯费尔的一家新合资企业投产,这是2023年签署的一项20亿美元协议的一部分。 In October, the Chinese tire maker Sentury began production in a new factory in Tangier Tech City, a zone planned to eventually house 200 Chinese companies. 去年10月,中国轮胎制造商森麒麟轮胎在丹吉尔科技城的一家新工厂投产,该科技城计划最终容纳200家中国企业。 And last summer, Gotion, the Chinese battery maker, announced plans to build a $1.3 billion “gigafactory,” the first in Africa. That investment could rise to $6.5 billion, according to Moroccan government. 去年夏天,中国电池制造商国轩高科宣布计划投资13亿美元建设非洲首座“超级工厂”。据摩洛哥政府称,这笔投资可能会增加到65亿美元。 摩洛哥首相阿赫努什(红毯左二)于去年9月访问北京。 “Morocco has been following a hedging strategy for a long time” between the United States and China, said Mr. Aboudouh at Chatham House. “The Biden administration showed them some tolerance” when it came to Chinese investments. But if this maneuvering space is tightened under the Trump administration, “I think they will show more caution.” 英国皇家国际事务研究所的阿布杜指出,摩洛哥长期在中美间“实施对冲战略”。拜登政府对中国投资“尚显宽容”。但如果特朗普政府收紧这一操作空间的话,“我认为他们会表现得更为谨慎。” Patricia Cohen常驻伦敦,撰写与全球经济有关的新闻。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
CARL ZIMMER2025年5月8日2004年非典疫情爆发期间,中国卫生官员和警察从广州一家动物市场没收的一只果子狸。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images In the early 2000s, a coronavirus infecting bats jumped into raccoon dogs and other wild mammals in southwestern China. Some of those animals were sold in markets, where the coronavirus jumped again, into humans. The result was the SARS pandemic, which spread to 33 countries and claimed 774 lives. A few months into it, scientists discovered the coronavirus in mammals known as palm civets sold in a market at the center of the outbreak. 本世纪初,一种感染蝙蝠的冠状病毒在中国西南部感染了貉和其他野生哺乳动物。其中一些动物在市场上出售,冠状病毒再次传染给人类。其结果是一场SARS大流行,蔓延到33个国家,夺走了774人的生命。几个月后,科学家在疫情爆发中心的一个市场上出售的一种名为果子狸的哺乳动物身上发现了冠状病毒。 In a study published on Wednesday, a team of researchers compared the evolutionary story of SARS with that of Covid 17 years later. The researchers analyzed the genomes of the two coronaviruses that caused the pandemics, along with 248 related coronaviruses in bats and other mammals. 在周三发表的一项研究中,一组研究人员将SARS的进化过程与17年后的Covid进行了比较。研究人员分析了导致疫情的两种冠状病毒的基因组,以及蝙蝠和其他哺乳动物中248种相关冠状病毒的基因组。 Jonathan Pekar, an evolutionary virologist at the University of Edinburgh and an author of the new study, said that the histories of the two coronaviruses followed parallel paths. “In my mind, they are extraordinarily similar,” he said. 爱丁堡大学的进化病毒学家、这项新研究的作者之一乔纳森·佩卡尔说,这两种冠状病毒的历史遵循平行的路径。“在我看来,它们非常相似,”他说。 In both cases, Dr. Pekar and his colleagues argue, a coronavirus jumped from bats to wild mammals in southwestern China. In a short period of time, wildlife traders took the infected animals hundreds of miles to city markets, and the virus wreaked havoc in humans. 佩卡尔和他的同事们认为,在这两个案例中,冠状病毒都是从中国西南部的蝙蝠传染给野生哺乳动物的。在很短的时间内,野生动物贩子将感染的动物带到数百公里外的城市的市场,随后病毒给人类带来一场浩劫。 “When you sell wildlife in the heart of cities, you’re going to have a pandemic every so often,” said Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona and an author of the new study. “在城市中心出售野生动物,就会经常爆发流行病,”亚利桑那大学的进化生物学家、这项新研究的作者之一迈克尔·沃罗贝说。 The study lands at a fraught political moment. Last month the White House created a web page called “Lab Leak: The True Origin of Covid 19,” asserting that the pandemic had been caused not by a market spillover but by an accident in a lab in Wuhan, China. 这项研究出现在一个令人担忧的政治时刻。上个月,白宫创建了一个名为“实验室泄漏:Covid-19的真正起源”的网页,声称大流行的起因不是市场溢出,而是中国武汉一家实验室的意外事故。 On Friday, in its proposed budget, the White House described the lab leak as “confirmed” and justified an $18 billion cut to the National Institutes of Health in part on what it described as the agency’s “inability to prove that its grants to the Wuhan Institute of Virology were not complicit in such a possible leak.” 周五,白宫在其预算提案中称,实验室泄密事件“已得到证实”,并为削减美国国立卫生研究院的180亿美元拨款提供了理由,部分原因是该机构“无法证明其向武汉病毒研究所提供的拨款与这样一起可能的泄漏事件无关”。 The Chinese government responded with a flat denial that Covid had been caused by a Wuhan lab leak and raised the possibility that the virus had come instead from a biodefense lab in the United States. 中国政府断然否认新冠病毒是由武汉的实验室泄漏造成的,并提出了病毒来自美国国防生物实验室的可能性。 “A thorough and in-depth investigation into the origins of the virus should be conducted in the U.S.,” the statement read. 其声明称:“应该对美国开展全面深入的新冠病毒溯源调查。” Sergei Pond, a virologist at Temple University, said that he did not consider the origin of Covid settled. But he worried that the incendiary language from the two governments would make it difficult for scientists to investigate — and debate — the origin of Covid. 天普大学的病毒学家谢尔盖·庞德表示,他不认为新冠病毒的起源已经确定。但他担心,两国政府的煽动性言论将使科学家难以调查和辩论新冠病毒的起源。 “If it wasn’t tragic, you’d have to laugh, it’s so farcical,” Dr. Pond said. 庞德说:“如果这不是一场悲剧,你肯定都要笑出来了,因为实在太滑稽了。” 武汉病毒研究所。美国科学家的确指责过该研究所在冠状病毒实验中防护不严,但没有人提供证据表明,SARS-CoV-2的祖先在大流行之前就在该实验室。 In the first weeks of the Covid pandemic in early 2020, claims circulated that the virus responsible, SARS-CoV-2, was a biological weapon created by the Chinese Army. A group of scientists who analyzed the data available at the time rejected that idea. Although they couldn’t rule out an accidental lab leak, they favored a natural origin of Covid. 2020年初新冠疫情的最初几周曾流传一个说法,称导致疫情的病毒SARS-CoV-2是中国军队制造的一种生物武器。一组科学家在分析了当时可用的数据后否定了这一观点。尽管他们不能排除实验室意外泄漏的可能性,但他们倾向于认为新冠病毒是自然起源的。 As Dr. Worobey and other scientists started studying the origin of Covid, American intelligence agencies were also assessing it. Their assessments have been mixed. The F.B.I., and the C.I.A. favor an escape from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, although with only low certainty. The Department of Energy leans with low confidence to the virus escaping from a different lab in Wuhan. Other agencies lean toward a natural origin. 当沃罗贝和其他科学家开始研究新冠病毒的起源时,美国情报机构也在对其进行评估。他们的评估结果不一。联邦调查局和中央情报局倾向于认为从武汉病毒研究所逃逸,不过确定性不高。美国能源部认为病毒是从武汉的另一个实验室逃逸的,但置信度为低。其他机构倾向于自然来源。 The agencies have not made their evidence or their analyses public, and so scientists cannot evaluate the basis of their conclusions. However, Dr. Worobey and other researchers have published a string of papers in scientific journals. Along the way, Dr. Worobey became convinced that the Covid pandemic had started at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. 这些机构没有公开它们的证据或分析,因此科学家无法评估它们结论的基础。然而,沃罗贝和其他研究人员在科学期刊上发表了一系列论文。在研究过程中,沃罗贝确信,新冠疫情是从武汉的华南海鲜市场开始的。 “Scientifically, it’s as clear as H.I.V. or Spanish flu,” Dr. Worobey said, referring to two diseases whose origins he has also studied. “从科学角度来说,这和HIV病毒或西班牙流感一样清楚,”沃罗贝说。他也研究过这两种疾病的起源。 For the new study, Dr. Worobey, Dr. Pekar and their colleagues compared the genomes of 250 coronaviruses, using their genetic similarities and differences to determine their relationships. They were able to reconstruct the history of the coronaviruses that cause both SARS and Covid — known as SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. 在这项新研究中,沃罗贝、佩卡尔及其同事比较了250种冠状病毒的基因组,利用它们的遗传相似性和差异来确定它们之间的关系。他们能够重建导致SARS和Covid的冠状病毒的历史,即SARS-CoV病毒和SARS-CoV-2病毒。 The ancestors of both coronaviruses circulated in bats across much of China and neighboring countries for hundreds of thousands of years. In the last 50 years or so, their direct ancestors infected bats that lived in southwestern China and northern Laos. 这两种冠状病毒的祖先在中国大部分地区和邻国的蝙蝠中传播了数十万年。在过去50年左右的时间里,它们的直系祖先感染了生活在中国西南部和老挝北部的蝙蝠。 As the coronaviruses infected the bats, they sometimes ended up inside a cell with another coronavirus. When the cell made new viruses, it accidentally created hybrids that carried genetic material from both of the original coronaviruses — a process known as recombination. 当冠状病毒感染蝙蝠后,有时会与另一种冠状病毒一起进入细胞。当细胞制造新病毒时,它意外地产生了携带两种原始冠状病毒遗传物质的杂交体,这一过程被称为重组。 “These aren’t ancient events,” said David Rasmussen, a virologist at North Carolina State University who was not involved in the new study. “These things are happening all the time. These viruses are truly mosaics.” 没有参与这项新研究的北卡罗来纳州立大学病毒学家戴维·拉斯穆森说:“这些都不是古老的事件。这种事一直在发生。这些病毒真的可以说是东拼西凑。” In 2001, just a year before the SARS pandemic started in the city of Guangzhou, the researchers found, SARS-CoV underwent its last genetic mixing in bats. Only after that last recombination could the virus have evolved into a human pathogen. And since Guangzhou is several hundred miles from the ancestral region of SARS-CoV, bats would not have been able to bring the virus to the city in so little time. 研究人员发现,2001年,也就是SARS在广州造成大流行的前一年,SARS-CoV病毒在蝙蝠中进行了最后一次基因混合。只有经过最后一次重组之后,病毒才进化成人类病原体。由于广州距离SARS-CoV病毒的发源地有几百公里,蝙蝠不可能在这么短的时间内将病毒带到广州。 Instead, researchers generally agree, the ancestors of SARS-CoV infected wild mammals that were later sold in markets around Guangzhou. A few months after the start of the SARS pandemic, researchers discovered SARS-CoV in palm civets and other wild mammals for sale in markets. 研究人员普遍认为是SARS-CoV的祖先感染了野生哺乳动物,而后这些哺乳动物在广州周边的市场上出售。SARS疫情开始几个月后,研究人员在市场上出售的果子狸和其他野生哺乳动物身上发现了SARS-CoV。 The researchers found a similar pattern when they turned to SARS-CoV-2, the cause of Covid. The last recombination in bats took place between 2012 and 2014, just five to seven years before the Covid pandemic, several hundred miles to the northeast, in Wuhan. 当研究人员研究导致新冠疫情的SARS-CoV-2时,他们发现了类似的模式。蝙蝠身上的最后一次重组发生在2012年至2014年之间,也就是新冠大流行前五到七年,地点在东北方向几百公里外的武汉。 That was also a substantial departure from the region where the virus’s ancestors had circulated. But it was comparable to the journey that SARS-CoV took, courtesy of the wildlife trade. 这也大大偏离了该病毒祖先的流行区域。但传播过程与SARS-CoV相似,都是通过野生动物贸易。 Proponents of lab-leak theories have highlighted the long distance between Wuhan and the locations where the closest relatives of SARS-CoV-2 have been found. If bats could not fly to the region around Wuhan and infect wild mammals there, they maintain, then scientists must have collected the coronavirus from bats in southwest China and tinkered with it in their lab, from which it then escaped. 实验室泄漏理论的支持者强调了武汉与发现SARS-CoV-2近亲的地点之间的距离。他们坚持认为,如果蝙蝠不能飞到武汉周边地区并感染那里的野生哺乳动物,那么科学家一定是从中国西南地区的蝙蝠身上收集了冠状病毒,并在实验室里对其进行了处理,然后病毒从那里逃逸出来。 American scientists have criticized the Wuhan Institute of Virology for lax safeguards in their coronavirus experiments. But no one has offered evidence that the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 was at the Wuhan Institute of Virology before the pandemic. The new study by Dr. Worobey and his colleagues shows that bat coronaviruses can travel long distances without the help of scientists, through the wildlife trade. 美国科学家批评武汉病毒研究所在冠状病毒实验中防护不严。但没有人提供证据证明SARS-CoV-2的前身在大流行之前就在武汉病毒研究所。沃罗贝及其同事的新研究表明,蝙蝠冠状病毒可以通过野生动物贸易,在没有科学家帮助的情况下长距离传播。 The researchers argue that these findings agree with studies that they published in 2022, which pointed to the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan as the place where the Covid pandemic got its start. Wild mammals were sold there; many early cases of Covid were recorded there, and Chinese researchers collected different strains of SARS-CoV-2 carrying distinct mutations there. Dr. Worobey and his colleagues argued that the virus had twice spilled over from wild mammals at the market. 研究人员认为,这些发现与他们在2022年发表的研究一致,该研究指出武汉的华南海鲜市场是新冠疫情的发源地。野生哺乳动物在那里出售;那里记录了许多早期病例,中国研究人员在那里收集了携带不同突变的不同SARS-CoV-2毒株。沃罗贝和他的同事们认为,这种病毒曾两次从市场上的野生哺乳动物身上传播出去。 Marc Eloit, the former director of the Pathogen Discovery Laboratory at Pasteur Institute in Paris, said that the new study was significant for providing a clear picture of where SARS-CoV-2 came from. 巴黎巴斯德研究所病原体发现实验室前主任马克·埃洛伊特说,这项新研究对确切了解SARS-CoV-2的来源具有重要意义。 But he also observed that the coronavirus was markedly different from its closest known relatives in bats. After it split from those viruses, it must have mutated or undergone recombination to become well adapted for spreading in humans. 但他也观察到,这种冠状病毒与蝙蝠中的已知近亲有明显不同。从这些病毒中分离出来后,它必须发生突变或经历重组,才能很好地适应在人类中传播。 “I maintain that the possibility of a recombination event — whether accidental or deliberate — in a laboratory setting remains just as plausible as the hypothesis of emergence via an intermediate host on the market,” Dr. Eloit said. 埃洛伊特说:“我坚持认为,在实验室环境中发生重组事件的可能性——无论是偶然的还是故意的——与通过市场上的中间宿主出现的假设一样可信。” Dr. Eloit and other scientists agreed that finding an intermediate form of SARS-CoV-2 in a wild mammal would make a compelling case for a natural spillover. Chinese authorities looked at some animals at the start of the pandemic and did not find the virus in them. 埃洛伊特和其他科学家一致认为,在野生哺乳动物中发现中间形式的SARS-CoV-2将为自然溢出提供令人信服的解释。中国政府在大流行开始时对一些动物进行了检查,但没有在它们身上发现这种病毒。 However, wildlife vendors at the Huanan market removed their animals from the stalls before scientists could study them. And once China put a stop to wildlife sales, farmers culled their animals. 然而,华南市场上的野生动物商贩在科学家们研究它们之前,就把他们的动物从摊位上搬走了。中国禁止野生动物交易后,农民们纷纷宰杀了手头的动物。 “There’s a big missing piece, and you really can’t dance around it,” said Dr. Pond. “缺了很大一块,这是个很难绕过去的问题,”庞德说。 Carl Zimmer为时报报道科学新闻并撰写“Origins”专栏。 翻译:纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
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